“The 20 years from 1999 to 2019 saw a major international decline in adolescent risk behaviours… common underlying drivers (e.g. less unstructured in-person socialising) have played an important role in this behavioural shift.” https://t.co/7BEicuHFie pic.twitter.com/HAvrhRjKgT
— Steve Stewart-Williams (@SteveStuWill) December 27, 2022
Global decline in fertility rates…
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Last: 13 days ago by Redbrickbear
Interesting, but how does this impact the decline in global fertility rates?Redbrickbear said:“The 20 years from 1999 to 2019 saw a major international decline in adolescent risk behaviours… common underlying drivers (e.g. less unstructured in-person socialising) have played an important role in this behavioural shift.” https://t.co/7BEicuHFie pic.twitter.com/HAvrhRjKgT
— Steve Stewart-Williams (@SteveStuWill) December 27, 2022
I think there are social impacts here as well. The margin of error is much less now than it was in the 70's and 80's.Redbrickbear said:“The 20 years from 1999 to 2019 saw a major international decline in adolescent risk behaviours… common underlying drivers (e.g. less unstructured in-person socialising) have played an important role in this behavioural shift.” https://t.co/7BEicuHFie pic.twitter.com/HAvrhRjKgT
— Steve Stewart-Williams (@SteveStuWill) December 27, 2022
The use of alcohol and risky behavior has a much higher impact on ones future than it did when I was a teen. There were several run-in's with law enforcement that ended up with a football coach being called and not our parents, we paid is sweat-equity.
Now, many of the alcohol or social fighting/risky behavior will destroy your life. I know my son was much more concerned with that than we were. I think that may play into it in 1st World Nations, I am not sure about 3rd World.
Osodecentx said:Interesting, but how does this impact the decline in global fertility rates?Redbrickbear said:“The 20 years from 1999 to 2019 saw a major international decline in adolescent risk behaviours… common underlying drivers (e.g. less unstructured in-person socialising) have played an important role in this behavioural shift.” https://t.co/7BEicuHFie pic.twitter.com/HAvrhRjKgT
— Steve Stewart-Williams (@SteveStuWill) December 27, 2022
Not sure it's a one to one correlation or anything.
But less sex usually means less kids.
And something happened at the turn of the century.
Fertility rates began to collapse world wide.
Such a terible way of looking at it when the elderly among us, those that have made this sophisticated, advanced technologically, relatively easy way of life a possibility, as a drag on the economy when their time to retire and actually relax and enjoy their hard work comes around.BellCountyBear said:The majority of baby boomers in this country are not productive anymore and are a drag on the economy. The downside of modern medicine and pharmaceuticals.whiterock said:population growth IS the largest part of economic growth. a shrinking population has to develop ever more sophisticated ways of improving productivity to maintain economic growth.contrario said:
Why must the population sustain itself? Why would it be a bad thing for there to be less people?
once an economy starts contracting, all kinds of pathologies set in......eventually becoming systemically fatal. How does a city of 800k maintain street, sewer and water infrastructure for a population of 500k?
There is a reason why places like Angkor Wat, et al....were abandoned.......
Also you are also wrong...
Quote:
Since 1983, however, the employment rates of older workers have risen substantially. The employment rate for men ages 65 to 69 increased roughly 10 percentage points. For women ages 65 to 69, the employment rate more than doubled, rising 15 percentage points, and for women ages 60 to 64, it also rose more than 15 percentage points. Why are people working longer nowadays?
Here is the real "drag on the economy"....
The ones that are failing the economy are the young men aged 25-54 who don't work and choose not to work, many still living off older parents and other family members.Quote:
It first became evident among men in the prime of life, between 25 and 54. Today over 7 million of these men of "prime working age" are neither working nor looking for work. And now, in the wake of the COVID calamity, the "men without work" syndrome seems to be spreading, afflicting parts of the US workforce that did not suffer from it before the pandemic.
Some, including me, would tie it to the industrial revolution and plastic revolution. With the advent of the Industrial Revolution, physical labor decreased. Think about it, what do they recommend to raise testosterone? Heavy lifts - Squats, Dead Lifts, Cleans. Anabolic moves. To this day you can read about how Dead Lifting will raise testosterone. There are a couple of more observational items I add to the list. So my list:Redbrickbear said:Osodecentx said:Interesting, but how does this impact the decline in global fertility rates?Redbrickbear said:“The 20 years from 1999 to 2019 saw a major international decline in adolescent risk behaviours… common underlying drivers (e.g. less unstructured in-person socialising) have played an important role in this behavioural shift.” https://t.co/7BEicuHFie pic.twitter.com/HAvrhRjKgT
— Steve Stewart-Williams (@SteveStuWill) December 27, 2022
Not sure it's a one to one correlation or anything.
But less sex usually means less kids.
And something happened at the turn of the century.
Fertility rates began to collapse world wide.
1 - Heavy lifting
2 - Less cholesterol and natural fats in diet (testosterone levels are higher the higher HDL Cholesterol you have)
3 - Focus on aerobics over anaerobic movements by "health experts"
4 - Decrease in cruciferous veggies being eaten. Cruciferous veggies have been known to block estrogen. Old wives tale, eat broccoli if you are having trouble getting it up... (Not much science to back up, but enough circumstantial to add!)
5 - Plastics and phytoestrogens
Want to see how to keep testosterone high and estrogen low, read about the old school (1940's and 50's) bodybuilders (LaLane, Gironda, Reeves). The old school stuff they used before drugs, work!
Truly breathtaking class divide in marriage and motherhood.
— Brad Wilcox (@BradWilcoxIFS) December 28, 2022
✔️95% of upper-income moms are married
✔️76% of middle-income moms are married
✔️35% of lower-income moms are married https://t.co/vshFxERh2R @TheAtlantic pic.twitter.com/BMFuSyqDcT
Best quote on the responses:Redbrickbear said:Truly breathtaking class divide in marriage and motherhood.
— Brad Wilcox (@BradWilcoxIFS) December 28, 2022
✔️95% of upper-income moms are married
✔️76% of middle-income moms are married
✔️35% of lower-income moms are married https://t.co/vshFxERh2R @TheAtlantic pic.twitter.com/BMFuSyqDcT
"Two people understanding marriage is more about thriving at life than thriving at romance is a powerful alliance against the struggles of the world."
[url=https://twitter.com/montuakmo66/status/1608211061202911232/analytics][/url]
I agree with this
One of the big demographic stories this year was the world’s population reaching the 8 billion milestone. Here is where the 8 billion of us live. Source:https://t.co/pjGLRMJWuw… pic.twitter.com/hnGeAySI5s
— Simon Kuestenmacher (@simongerman600) December 31, 2022
The increase in population is due to a decrease in mortality, not an increase in birth rates.
Five countries in the world have birth rates that sustain or increase their populations: USA, France, Sweden, Argentina, and New Zealand.
Five countries in the world have birth rates that sustain or increase their populations: USA, France, Sweden, Argentina, and New Zealand.
Osodecentx said:
The increase in population is due to a decrease in mortality, not an increase in birth rates.
Five countries in the world have birth rates that sustain or increase their populations: USA, France, Sweden, Argentina, and New Zealand.
Is that really true with the USA and New Zealand?
Both have fertility rates below replacement.
I yield. I had bad information. ThanksRedbrickbear said:Osodecentx said:
The increase in population is due to a decrease in mortality, not an increase in birth rates.
Five countries in the world have birth rates that sustain or increase their populations: USA, France, Sweden, Argentina, and New Zealand.
Is that really true with the USA and New Zealand?
Both have fertility rates below replacement.
This is very smart policy from Kazakhstan. They already had very decent pro-natal policies but are now building upon them. They are doing this before TFR sinks, not waiting until it’s too late. Kazakh TFR likely fell to just below 3.0 in 2022. https://t.co/qiY6vsmfWx
— Aaronal (@Aaronal16) January 1, 2023
"Bill Gates, David Rockefeller Jr, Warren Buffett & George Soros, Michael Bloomberg, Ted Turner & Oprah Winfrey.
— Robin Monotti (@robinmonotti) January 1, 2023
They gathered at the home of Sir Paul Nurse, a British Nobel prize biochemist.. they agreed that overpopulation was a priority."https://t.co/ZhUHlW5QB8 pic.twitter.com/lKNt7dWCvm
Redbrickbear said:"Bill Gates, David Rockefeller Jr, Warren Buffett & George Soros, Michael Bloomberg, Ted Turner & Oprah Winfrey.
— Robin Monotti (@robinmonotti) January 1, 2023
They gathered at the home of Sir Paul Nurse, a British Nobel prize biochemist.. they agreed that overpopulation was a priority."https://t.co/ZhUHlW5QB8 pic.twitter.com/lKNt7dWCvm
Rockerfeller died years ago
He did his part
This is a graph from an article I shared in 2021 on childlessness in East Asia. 35% of women in Hong Kong born in 1972 who completed their child bearing years were childless. This compared to 28% in Japan & 26% of women in Singapore born in 1972. Figures much higher than Europe. pic.twitter.com/rx3hYjEVup
— Aaronal (@Aaronal16) January 4, 2023
India will be the economic superpower by the end of this century due to its increasing population. And if they keep exporting people around the world, they could be the political superpower too. https://t.co/xi3eBo2rZ6
— Sir Walter Raleigh 🏴 (@NxlAnglo) January 4, 2023
Redbrickbear said:India will be the economic superpower by the end of this century due to its increasing population. And if they keep exporting people around the world, they could be the political superpower too. https://t.co/xi3eBo2rZ6
— Sir Walter Raleigh 🏴 (@NxlAnglo) January 4, 2023
This is HUGE! China has 1.3 billion now. I read they will have 650 million in 2070
Osodecentx said:Redbrickbear said:India will be the economic superpower by the end of this century due to its increasing population. And if they keep exporting people around the world, they could be the political superpower too. https://t.co/xi3eBo2rZ6
— Sir Walter Raleigh 🏴 (@NxlAnglo) January 4, 2023
This is HUGE! China has 1.3 billion now. I read they will have 650 million in 2070
It's very possible that the 1.3 billion number is false.
Yi Fuxian, a professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, has written that China's government has obscured the actual fertility rate and low level functionaries have lied for years about the true population figures in order to get more funding.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/01/17/world/asia/china-population-crisis.html
Estimate of subnational TFR in Africa.
— Whyvert (@whyvert) January 7, 2023
Shows there's a lot of variation. Reason to think the highest zones can soon lessen. pic.twitter.com/nRDIQZnpoA
the Peter Zeihan presentations go into that issue in some detail. Zeihan does not cite his sources, but he states as fact that China has significantly over stated its population, and is actually at the precipice of demographic collapse (which is one of the reasons for the increasingly authoritarian policies flowing from the Jinping regime).Redbrickbear said:Osodecentx said:Redbrickbear said:India will be the economic superpower by the end of this century due to its increasing population. And if they keep exporting people around the world, they could be the political superpower too. https://t.co/xi3eBo2rZ6
— Sir Walter Raleigh 🏴 (@NxlAnglo) January 4, 2023
This is HUGE! China has 1.3 billion now. I read they will have 650 million in 2070
It's very possible that the 1.3 billion number is false.
Yi Fuxian, a professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, has written that China's government has obscured the actual fertility rate and low level functionaries have lied for years about the true population figures in order to get more funding.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/01/17/world/asia/china-population-crisis.html
Very instructive chart. What it shows is this: The lowest fertility rates in Africa tend to be\ in the areas with the highest population levels. So while the population will continue to grow, it is not going to explode into unsustainability.Redbrickbear said:Estimate of subnational TFR in Africa.
— Whyvert (@whyvert) January 7, 2023
Shows there's a lot of variation. Reason to think the highest zones can soon lessen. pic.twitter.com/nRDIQZnpoA
some benchmarks: Nigeria uber alles - 1 in 5 Africans live in Nigeria. (and that population is concentrated along the coast. Density decreases as one moves north. We see an almost seamless inverse relationship between pop density and birth rate.) Look at Zaire (#4)....all that red is in the almost totally unpopulated deepest tropical jungles of the Congo basin (with exception of the southestern corner (Katanga)....the mining district). Niger and Mali? Tiny populations in the Sahel (the dry transition edge of the advancing Sahara.) Remember that most "africa" stats/statements include the Arab countries on the Mediterranean coast - Egypt (#2) and Algeria (#9) are stable. South Africa (#5 is stable).
Africa is predicted to see the fastest economic growth rates in the world in the next few decades. Low floor / high ceiling dynamic. Good population growth while everywhere else is flirting with demographic collapse, plus lots & lots of natural resources and low labor costs. The incentives to invest and teach/train/develop to exploit the unutilized labor will be powerful enough to induce substantial investments. And the African governments as a whole have learned thru experience that socialism is a loser and will respond with more productive policies.
Ethnic Chinese TFR in Malaysia has crashed to catastrophic levels. In 2021 it hit an all time low of just 0.849. That is lower than the TFR of ethnic Chinese in Singapore or Taiwan: pic.twitter.com/5euRM8E195
— Aaronal (@Aaronal16) January 7, 2023
Initial birth estimates for 2022 show Turkish TFR is at a record low. Current estimates suggest there were 1.022M births in 2022 and TFR sank to only 1.66. The total number of births is also the lowest since at least 1950 when the population was only ~21M compared to ~86M now.
— Aaronal (@Aaronal16) January 8, 2023
Paul Ehrlich.Redbrickbear said:"Bill Gates, David Rockefeller Jr, Warren Buffett & George Soros, Michael Bloomberg, Ted Turner & Oprah Winfrey.
— Robin Monotti (@robinmonotti) January 1, 2023
They gathered at the home of Sir Paul Nurse, a British Nobel prize biochemist.. they agreed that overpopulation was a priority."https://t.co/ZhUHlW5QB8 pic.twitter.com/lKNt7dWCvm
The most important indicator of the future growth or decline in a religious tradition is how many younger people they have.
— Ryan Burge 📊 (@ryanburge) January 8, 2023
Around 2000, there were more mainliners who were 60+ yrs old than 40 or less.
For evangelicals and Catholics, it will likely happen in the next 10 years pic.twitter.com/sTVNgSrYqD
Sub Saharan Africa is very likely to see its TFR plummet in the coming decades. All projections assuming stable or increasing TFR have no credibility IMHO and will likely need to be revised downward. This IHME projection is far more likely: pic.twitter.com/GKCEOcHM9L
— Aaronal (@Aaronal16) January 9, 2023
Red
I'm trying to learn about demographic collapse. You seem to be the most knowledgeable on this thread. Can you recommend a book, website or other resource on this subject? Specifically, where is the tipping point for a country? Is it the population between 20 to 40? Where those over 40 outnumber those under 40? Is it a fertility rate < 2.1?
I'm trying to learn about demographic collapse. You seem to be the most knowledgeable on this thread. Can you recommend a book, website or other resource on this subject? Specifically, where is the tipping point for a country? Is it the population between 20 to 40? Where those over 40 outnumber those under 40? Is it a fertility rate < 2.1?
They could off themselves to get things started...Redbrickbear said:"Bill Gates, David Rockefeller Jr, Warren Buffett & George Soros, Michael Bloomberg, Ted Turner & Oprah Winfrey.
— Robin Monotti (@robinmonotti) January 1, 2023
They gathered at the home of Sir Paul Nurse, a British Nobel prize biochemist.. they agreed that overpopulation was a priority."https://t.co/ZhUHlW5QB8 pic.twitter.com/lKNt7dWCvm
Mathusianism never dies.
whiterock said:
Mathusianism never dies.
Mayans say hello
Osodecentx said:whiterock said:
Mathusianism never dies.
Mayans say hello
Bad social contract fails fortunately, we live in the best mankind has ever seen. If we can keep it.
whiterock said:Osodecentx said:whiterock said:
Mathusianism never dies.
Mayans say hello
Bad social contract fails fortunately, we live in the best mankind has ever seen. If we can keep it.
Agreed
whiterock said:
Mathusianism never dies.
Osodecentx said:
Red
I'm trying to learn about demographic collapse. You seem to be the most knowledgeable on this thread. Can you recommend a book, website or other resource on this subject? Specifically, where is the tipping point for a country? Is it the population between 20 to 40? Where those over 40 outnumber those under 40? Is it a fertility rate < 2.1?
I follow @birthguage on Twitter.
He has good info and gets it from national birth registries and compares it to previous years to show the decline.
Not sure about age or the specific tipping point. But once a population goes below 2.1 it becomes very hard to recover.
I assume because all kind of social and cultural trends have set in.
Looks like Thailand‘s TFR ended up at 1.10 kids per woman after 1.18 in 2021. Needless to say it is again the lowest value ever recorded for the country. https://t.co/ZswMy2jXJT
— Birth Gauge (@BirthGauge) January 6, 2023
A good book is "Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline", by Darrell Bricker and John Ibbitson