Thanks

The highest TFR regions in Africa follow the polygamy belt, which is characterized by greater acceptance of child brides and non traditional domestic unions (think extended families where brothers share multiple women). These are the remnants of African family structure prior to colonialism (European and Asian/Islamic) and why it remains prevalent in what is the more underdeveloped regions of Africa even today. This type of TFR is not really an economic asset, but instead a systemic poverty producer.

As someone who's spent a good amount of time in Africa, and not in the best areas, the combination of failed states, corruption, tribalism, and disadvantaged family structures presents a huge roadblock to Africa being able to move forward. There are some pockets of success, but most are semi successfully carrying forward colonial economic and social remnants or Western opportunism.

China has a very specific road map in Africa, using debt traps and a complete lack of regard of who they will negotiate with to gain access to natural resources. And while they promise jobs to the locals, the reality is a semi invasion of Chinese and facilitated foreign workers, while the locals get the basest low level work.

I have a great affinity for Africa, but it has a very long way to go for prosperity, and its population isn't an advantage as it is in other countries such as India.

Contraceptive met need & women’s access to education is estimated by groups like IHME to have a huge impact on fertility outcomes in a country. Look at their Niger example. The fastest met need has TFR crashing below replacement in the 2050s (replacement TFR in Niger is >2.0). pic.twitter.com/mMsMXdEy6T

— Aaronal (@Aaronal16) January 12, 2023

In 1971, just 18% of 30-year-olds had no children – today the figure has risen to 50% 🇬🇧 pic.twitter.com/8COQUHw2Ht

— Sir Walter Raleigh 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 (@NxlAnglo) January 15, 2023

Golem said:

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contrario said:

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Why must the population sustain itself? Why would it be a bad thing for there to be less people?

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There won't be less people. There will be less intelligent people.

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A trend that has been clearly underway for decades .

Nothing can stop the process at this point .

Redbrickbear said:

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In 1971, just 18% of 30-year-olds had no children – today the figure has risen to 50% 🇬🇧 pic.twitter.com/8COQUHw2Ht

— Sir Walter Raleigh 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 (@NxlAnglo) January 15, 2023

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Strongly suspect without UK's Muslim/ immigrant population influx the data would be even more dramatic.

Canada2017 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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In 1971, just 18% of 30-year-olds had no children – today the figure has risen to 50% 🇬🇧 pic.twitter.com/8COQUHw2Ht

— Sir Walter Raleigh 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 (@NxlAnglo) January 15, 2023

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Strongly suspect this increase is due to UK's Muslim/ immigrant population influx over the last 20 years.

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What's the logic there?

Fre3dombear said:

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Canada2017 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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In 1971, just 18% of 30-year-olds had no children – today the figure has risen to 50% 🇬🇧 pic.twitter.com/8COQUHw2Ht

— Sir Walter Raleigh 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 (@NxlAnglo) January 15, 2023

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Strongly suspect this increase is due to UK's Muslim/ immigrant population influx over the last 20 years.

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What's the logic there?

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Muslims who have entered the UK and become citizens have a far higher birth rate than the traditional English natives

Such Muslin birth rates ( in my opinion) have influenced the data .

Without the the Muslim impact even fewer 'citizens ' of the UK would be shown to be having children .

Ah gotcha. Yes uK is destroying themselves from within. Just like the democrats doing to USA

Those people getting paid to eat and screw all day and birth 8+ kids per woman. 40 years later they'll be squeezed out of their own country lol

But by then they won't be able to come to USA and it will dawn on them they suicided their own society for their overlords

Quite astonishing to watch but people even here on this tiny little board support this behavior so there's that

This is an earthquake. https://t.co/Tv2OzqbMaj

— Rod D. Martin (@RodDMartin) January 17, 2023

Redbrickbear said:

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This is an earthquake. https://t.co/Tv2OzqbMaj

— Rod D. Martin (@RodDMartin) January 17, 2023

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Quote:

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https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/16/business/china-birth-rate.html

China's Population Falls, Heralding a Demographic Crisis
Deaths outnumbered births last year for the first time in six decades. Experts see major implications for China, its economy and the world.

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The people who rule over us are either idiots or malevolent psychopaths….

Even as birth rates decline overpopulation remains a global challenge https://t.co/zjcBTNZ1Le pic.twitter.com/hQWD0lkS3P

— World Economic Forum (@Davos) April 6, 2018

India’s looming demographic crisis will be just as extreme as China’s today | Paul Morland https://t.co/2fD6HjM9qh

— UnHerd (@unherd) January 18, 2023

smattering of articles like this. Peter Zeihan insists it's true.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/china-has-been-overstating-its-population-numbers-since-1990-says-us-academic/articleshow/58835756.cms

The ONS has just revised the TFR of England and Wales downward from 1.61 to 1.55 kids per woman in 2021, taking the new census results into account.

— Birth Gauge (@BirthGauge) January 19, 2023

Due to the revisions, there are no districts left with above replacement level fertility. Luton, previously thought as having the highest TFR with 2.23 was revised to 1.89. The true record holder is now Tandridge in Surrey with a TFR of 1.96.

— Birth Gauge (@BirthGauge) January 19, 2023

I love how it's just wildly accepted that by 2030, half of women will be single and childless, testosterone/ sperm counts are dropping heavily every generation and our bodies are filling up with plastic.

Nobody is even caring about it.

We just accept this shit

— Poe's Law, Esq: Poe's Lawyer (@dyingscribe) January 19, 2023

whiterock said:

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smattering of articles like this. Peter Zeihan insists it's true.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/china-has-been-overstating-its-population-numbers-since-1990-says-us-academic/articleshow/58835756.cms

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I enjoyed Zeilhan's book. The End of the World is just beginning

Sounds like AI advances are coming at the right time. Smaller workforce, exponential increases in productivity. TFR decline is incredibly difficult to reverse.

ATL Bear said:

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Sounds like AI advances are coming at the right time. Smaller workforce, exponential increases in productivity. TFR decline is incredibly difficult to reverse.

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Serious question....has anyone ever reversed TFR decline?

Redbrickbear said:

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ATL Bear said:

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Sounds like AI advances are coming at the right time. Smaller workforce, exponential increases in productivity. TFR decline is incredibly difficult to reverse.

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Serious question....has anyone ever reversed TFR decline?

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Great question. Seems logical that there would be a floor below which a population could not fall. At some point the old, non reproductive population dies off leaving a remnant who reproduce.

Redbrickbear said:

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ATL Bear said:

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Sounds like AI advances are coming at the right time. Smaller workforce, exponential increases in productivity. TFR decline is incredibly difficult to reverse.

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Serious question....has anyone ever reversed TFR decline?

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Other than replenishing massive human loss from war or disease, think Middle Ages, I don't think it's ever occurred.

Redbrickbear said:

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I would love to step up and do my part in populating the earth. I have two grown kids. My wife had her tubes tied after the birth of our second. As much as I want to plant my seed and save humanity, she is NOT on board! She says if I continue to pursue this good cause, she is going to take half of my *****

ATL Bear said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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ATL Bear said:

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Sounds like AI advances are coming at the right time. Smaller workforce, exponential increases in productivity. TFR decline is incredibly difficult to reverse.

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Serious question....has anyone ever reversed TFR decline?

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Other than replenishing massive human loss from war or disease, think Middle Ages, I don't think it's ever occurred.

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When the savages take over the great structures of the west and end up sheltering inside them, next to fires in old steel drums (after our civilization is willingly subsumed), we will eventually be looked at as Atlanteans. They will wonder how all the 'old' technology was possible and will refer to it as magic. But they will be equal in the poverty and tribal warfare in which they subsist.

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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I would love to step up and do my part in populating the earth. I have two grown kids. My wife had her tubes tied after the birth of our second. As much as I want to plant my seed and save humanity, she is NOT on board! She says if I continue to pursue this good cause, she is going to take half of my *****

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you shoulda done your part and had 2.1 children. slacker.

perhaps you should propose exercises, tutorials, to show the younger generations how it's done, so as not to repeat your mistakes earlier in life..

Those who can't do, teach, right?

Interesting article on Chinese plans to subsidize IVF. The country will be an interesting lab for demographers interested in policy effects, as I suspect the government will adopt increasingly agressive pro-natalist policies over the next 20 years. https://t.co/shAU2U1o9m pic.twitter.com/veEeLZwoSD

— Sander Wagner (@sanderwagner) January 22, 2023

Redbrickbear said:

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Interesting article on Chinese plans to subsidize IVF. The country will be an interesting lab for demographers interested in policy effects, as I suspect the government will adopt increasingly agressive pro-natalist policies over the next 20 years. https://t.co/shAU2U1o9m pic.twitter.com/veEeLZwoSD

— Sander Wagner (@sanderwagner) January 22, 2023

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This IVF plan could augment their genetic engineering technology, including designer babies with characteristics advantageous to the state.

China is dying and its fertility rate (TFR) will be difficult to stabilize at 0.8. It is expected that about 8.3 million births will be officially announced for 2023. TFR for 2021 & 2022 are estimated by applying age-specific fertility of 2020 census, based on births. pic.twitter.com/iNnGNhmWjU

— 易富贤Yi Fuxian《大国空巢》 (@fuxianyi) February 3, 2023

To put the Uruguayan fertility decline into perspective, here a comparison with Spain. Until 1980 both countries had the same fertility level, but then Spain's TFR fell rapidly after the end of Franco's reign. Now Uruguay seems to catch up with the same speed of decline. pic.twitter.com/5m1m22eTJM

— Birth Gauge (@BirthGauge) February 3, 2023

The Turkish population register counted 4% fewer 0-year olds in 2022 than the year before. From that, it follows that the TFR of Turkey in 2022 was 1.64, down from 1.70 in 2021. In the provinces of Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir, the TFR was just 1.3 kids per woman anymore. https://t.co/GRX7axojDj

— Birth Gauge (@BirthGauge) February 6, 2023

The simple truth is people will have to get married earlier, in order to have more kids, over a fixed duration (we both cannot extend life or fertility reliably) pic.twitter.com/vAf3eya0wS

— ib (@lndian_Bronson) February 8, 2023

How successful were other countries attempts to raise fertility? Sweden: https://t.co/j2rx8tWh3y pic.twitter.com/KwL73L0Oxf

— True Discipline (@TruueDiscipline) February 10, 2023

Absolutely massive -16.66% decline in January 2023 births in Taiwan. As a reminder Taiwan had a TFR of only 0.89 in 2022 so they’re really having a go at displacing South Korea for world worst fertility rate crown. Births typically lower in the year preceding the Dragon Year. https://t.co/vHWD1lozMf

— Aaronal (@Aaronal16) February 11, 2023