The future automation of the workforce

40,941 Views | 776 Replies | Last: 59 min ago by cowboycwr
FLBear5630
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Oldbear83 said:

cowboycwr said:

Oldbear83 said:

boognish_bear said:

That all sounds good until they start shooting lasers at us… Ha ha



I wonder why we never hear the details on how this is going to work.

Right now, investors own the machines that automate manufacturing and they own the AI that is starting to winnow headcount in data roles. The rewards for automation are therefore going to company owners and AI companies. There is no evidence that is going to change anytime soon.

So what happens is at some point we will do one of three things:

I) We create a bunch of new jobs that can go to the people canned from their former jobs, or we will face a serious employment crisis. That is, we are headed to a place where maybe 35% of the population has zero workdays a week for zero income excepting unemployment, with another 15-20% underemployed by working for less pay in whatever jobs they can get and keep. GDP will continue to grow for a time because corporate profits will be healthy, but it will cast a false image for the nation as a whole;

II) Some idiot in Congress, most likely with a (D) by their name, decides to tax the crap out of any company using AI and reducing headcount. This gets popular and becomes law, and companies scale back their AI development and employees feel better protected by Congress. Problem is, other countries continue their AI development and eat up the majority of market share as the US gets left behind in product price and quality;

III) Someone leading an AI company sees what's coming and works out an agreement to develop AI while also protecting jobs, maintaining headcount while developing AI tech, using gains to deliver moderate profit growth while also cutting prices so as to gain market share and deliver real value to the average American.

The problem I have when I hear these promises from Gates and Musk, is that the evidence of their track record does not show price cutting or profit-sharing with the nation in general, so I cannot consider these men the leaders who will actually be AI's version of Henry Ford.


You forgot a fourth option.

Universal income. That is the only way people could work fewer days or not at all and survive.

That's an obscenely bad idea.

Think it through, starting with who would control that program.


All assuming AI acts and responds as they think. That is a big if.
whiterock
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Oldbear83 said:

cowboycwr said:

Oldbear83 said:

boognish_bear said:

That all sounds good until they start shooting lasers at us… Ha ha



I wonder why we never hear the details on how this is going to work.

Right now, investors own the machines that automate manufacturing and they own the AI that is starting to winnow headcount in data roles. The rewards for automation are therefore going to company owners and AI companies. There is no evidence that is going to change anytime soon.

So what happens is at some point we will do one of three things:

I) We create a bunch of new jobs that can go to the people canned from their former jobs, or we will face a serious employment crisis. That is, we are headed to a place where maybe 35% of the population has zero workdays a week for zero income excepting unemployment, with another 15-20% underemployed by working for less pay in whatever jobs they can get and keep. GDP will continue to grow for a time because corporate profits will be healthy, but it will cast a false image for the nation as a whole;

II) Some idiot in Congress, most likely with a (D) by their name, decides to tax the crap out of any company using AI and reducing headcount. This gets popular and becomes law, and companies scale back their AI development and employees feel better protected by Congress. Problem is, other countries continue their AI development and eat up the majority of market share as the US gets left behind in product price and quality;

III) Someone leading an AI company sees what's coming and works out an agreement to develop AI while also protecting jobs, maintaining headcount while developing AI tech, using gains to deliver moderate profit growth while also cutting prices so as to gain market share and deliver real value to the average American.

The problem I have when I hear these promises from Gates and Musk, is that the evidence of their track record does not show price cutting or profit-sharing with the nation in general, so I cannot consider these men the leaders who will actually be AI's version of Henry Ford.


You forgot a fourth option.

Universal income. That is the only way people could work fewer days or not at all and survive.

That's an obscenely bad idea.

Think it through, starting with who would control that program.

In that cynical scenario, and it has been proposed by some of the tech titans, it's the new elite (owners of the machines and software) paying money to prevent a revolt from the working class, You know.....feudalism.

in the other more optimistic scenario, AI creates massive numbers of jobs elsewhere, many of which have not even been envisioned yet....in a "creative destruction" process the PhD economists talk about.

Reality is somewhere between cynicism and optimism.
boognish_bear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
cowboycwr
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Oldbear83 said:

cowboycwr said:

Oldbear83 said:

boognish_bear said:

That all sounds good until they start shooting lasers at us… Ha ha



I wonder why we never hear the details on how this is going to work.

Right now, investors own the machines that automate manufacturing and they own the AI that is starting to winnow headcount in data roles. The rewards for automation are therefore going to company owners and AI companies. There is no evidence that is going to change anytime soon.

So what happens is at some point we will do one of three things:

I) We create a bunch of new jobs that can go to the people canned from their former jobs, or we will face a serious employment crisis. That is, we are headed to a place where maybe 35% of the population has zero workdays a week for zero income excepting unemployment, with another 15-20% underemployed by working for less pay in whatever jobs they can get and keep. GDP will continue to grow for a time because corporate profits will be healthy, but it will cast a false image for the nation as a whole;

II) Some idiot in Congress, most likely with a (D) by their name, decides to tax the crap out of any company using AI and reducing headcount. This gets popular and becomes law, and companies scale back their AI development and employees feel better protected by Congress. Problem is, other countries continue their AI development and eat up the majority of market share as the US gets left behind in product price and quality;

III) Someone leading an AI company sees what's coming and works out an agreement to develop AI while also protecting jobs, maintaining headcount while developing AI tech, using gains to deliver moderate profit growth while also cutting prices so as to gain market share and deliver real value to the average American.

The problem I have when I hear these promises from Gates and Musk, is that the evidence of their track record does not show price cutting or profit-sharing with the nation in general, so I cannot consider these men the leaders who will actually be AI's version of Henry Ford.


You forgot a fourth option.

Universal income. That is the only way people could work fewer days or not at all and survive.

That's an obscenely bad idea.

Think it through, starting with who would control that program.


Oh I agree. I wasn't supporting it. Just stating that you know the people saying AI is going to replace jobs, like a Bill Gates who leans left, will start pushing that idea.

Heck some already have. I believe there are posts in this thread that talk about it. I'd have to go find them but I feel like there was one that said AI and robots will replace most workers within 10 years (or similar time frame) and we would have a universal income to allow people to live.

I don't like the idea but also if robots and AI eventually do every job out there people would need a way to get money.
boognish_bear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
cowboycwr said:

Oldbear83 said:

cowboycwr said:

Oldbear83 said:

boognish_bear said:

That all sounds good until they start shooting lasers at us… Ha ha



I wonder why we never hear the details on how this is going to work.

Right now, investors own the machines that automate manufacturing and they own the AI that is starting to winnow headcount in data roles. The rewards for automation are therefore going to company owners and AI companies. There is no evidence that is going to change anytime soon.

So what happens is at some point we will do one of three things:

I) We create a bunch of new jobs that can go to the people canned from their former jobs, or we will face a serious employment crisis. That is, we are headed to a place where maybe 35% of the population has zero workdays a week for zero income excepting unemployment, with another 15-20% underemployed by working for less pay in whatever jobs they can get and keep. GDP will continue to grow for a time because corporate profits will be healthy, but it will cast a false image for the nation as a whole;

II) Some idiot in Congress, most likely with a (D) by their name, decides to tax the crap out of any company using AI and reducing headcount. This gets popular and becomes law, and companies scale back their AI development and employees feel better protected by Congress. Problem is, other countries continue their AI development and eat up the majority of market share as the US gets left behind in product price and quality;

III) Someone leading an AI company sees what's coming and works out an agreement to develop AI while also protecting jobs, maintaining headcount while developing AI tech, using gains to deliver moderate profit growth while also cutting prices so as to gain market share and deliver real value to the average American.

The problem I have when I hear these promises from Gates and Musk, is that the evidence of their track record does not show price cutting or profit-sharing with the nation in general, so I cannot consider these men the leaders who will actually be AI's version of Henry Ford.


You forgot a fourth option.

Universal income. That is the only way people could work fewer days or not at all and survive.

That's an obscenely bad idea.

Think it through, starting with who would control that program.


Oh I agree. I wasn't supporting it. Just stating that you know the people saying AI is going to replace jobs, like a Bill Gates who leans left, will start pushing that idea.

Heck some already have. I believe there are posts in this thread that talk about it. I'd have to go find them but I feel like there was one that said AI and robots will replace most workers within 10 years (or similar time frame) and we would have a universal income to allow people to live.

I don't like the idea but also if robots and AI eventually do every job out there people would need a way to get money.


He is not left-leaning… But Elon is one who talks about UBI.

Oldbear83
How long do you want to ignore this user?
boognish_bear said:

cowboycwr said:

Oldbear83 said:

cowboycwr said:

Oldbear83 said:

boognish_bear said:

That all sounds good until they start shooting lasers at us… Ha ha



I wonder why we never hear the details on how this is going to work.

Right now, investors own the machines that automate manufacturing and they own the AI that is starting to winnow headcount in data roles. The rewards for automation are therefore going to company owners and AI companies. There is no evidence that is going to change anytime soon.

So what happens is at some point we will do one of three things:

I) We create a bunch of new jobs that can go to the people canned from their former jobs, or we will face a serious employment crisis. That is, we are headed to a place where maybe 35% of the population has zero workdays a week for zero income excepting unemployment, with another 15-20% underemployed by working for less pay in whatever jobs they can get and keep. GDP will continue to grow for a time because corporate profits will be healthy, but it will cast a false image for the nation as a whole;

II) Some idiot in Congress, most likely with a (D) by their name, decides to tax the crap out of any company using AI and reducing headcount. This gets popular and becomes law, and companies scale back their AI development and employees feel better protected by Congress. Problem is, other countries continue their AI development and eat up the majority of market share as the US gets left behind in product price and quality;

III) Someone leading an AI company sees what's coming and works out an agreement to develop AI while also protecting jobs, maintaining headcount while developing AI tech, using gains to deliver moderate profit growth while also cutting prices so as to gain market share and deliver real value to the average American.

The problem I have when I hear these promises from Gates and Musk, is that the evidence of their track record does not show price cutting or profit-sharing with the nation in general, so I cannot consider these men the leaders who will actually be AI's version of Henry Ford.


You forgot a fourth option.

Universal income. That is the only way people could work fewer days or not at all and survive.

That's an obscenely bad idea.

Think it through, starting with who would control that program.


Oh I agree. I wasn't supporting it. Just stating that you know the people saying AI is going to replace jobs, like a Bill Gates who leans left, will start pushing that idea.

Heck some already have. I believe there are posts in this thread that talk about it. I'd have to go find them but I feel like there was one that said AI and robots will replace most workers within 10 years (or similar time frame) and we would have a universal income to allow people to live.

I don't like the idea but also if robots and AI eventually do every job out there people would need a way to get money.


He is not left-leaning… But Elon is one who talks about UBI.



Here's the rub:

Right now the owners of AI tech get the profits it creates for them, not workers.

Those same owners lobby Congress to get protection, and again no one is looking out for the workers.

You'd have to be on some major drugs to imagine the guys running AI would agree to give up money to the ordinary people.

Look at how Unemployment works, look at how Social Security works.

There is no chance whatsoever that regular people end up rich or even comfortable with a Universal program.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
boognish_bear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Oldbear83 said:

boognish_bear said:

cowboycwr said:

Oldbear83 said:

cowboycwr said:

Oldbear83 said:

boognish_bear said:

That all sounds good until they start shooting lasers at us… Ha ha



I wonder why we never hear the details on how this is going to work.

Right now, investors own the machines that automate manufacturing and they own the AI that is starting to winnow headcount in data roles. The rewards for automation are therefore going to company owners and AI companies. There is no evidence that is going to change anytime soon.

So what happens is at some point we will do one of three things:

I) We create a bunch of new jobs that can go to the people canned from their former jobs, or we will face a serious employment crisis. That is, we are headed to a place where maybe 35% of the population has zero workdays a week for zero income excepting unemployment, with another 15-20% underemployed by working for less pay in whatever jobs they can get and keep. GDP will continue to grow for a time because corporate profits will be healthy, but it will cast a false image for the nation as a whole;

II) Some idiot in Congress, most likely with a (D) by their name, decides to tax the crap out of any company using AI and reducing headcount. This gets popular and becomes law, and companies scale back their AI development and employees feel better protected by Congress. Problem is, other countries continue their AI development and eat up the majority of market share as the US gets left behind in product price and quality;

III) Someone leading an AI company sees what's coming and works out an agreement to develop AI while also protecting jobs, maintaining headcount while developing AI tech, using gains to deliver moderate profit growth while also cutting prices so as to gain market share and deliver real value to the average American.

The problem I have when I hear these promises from Gates and Musk, is that the evidence of their track record does not show price cutting or profit-sharing with the nation in general, so I cannot consider these men the leaders who will actually be AI's version of Henry Ford.


You forgot a fourth option.

Universal income. That is the only way people could work fewer days or not at all and survive.

That's an obscenely bad idea.

Think it through, starting with who would control that program.


Oh I agree. I wasn't supporting it. Just stating that you know the people saying AI is going to replace jobs, like a Bill Gates who leans left, will start pushing that idea.

Heck some already have. I believe there are posts in this thread that talk about it. I'd have to go find them but I feel like there was one that said AI and robots will replace most workers within 10 years (or similar time frame) and we would have a universal income to allow people to live.

I don't like the idea but also if robots and AI eventually do every job out there people would need a way to get money.


He is not left-leaning… But Elon is one who talks about UBI.



Here's the rub:

Right now the owners of AI tech get the profits it creates for them, not workers.

Those same owners lobby Congress to get protection, and again no one is looking out for the workers.

You'd have to be on some major drugs to imagine the guys running AI would agree to give up money to the ordinary people.

Look at how Unemployment works, look at how Social Security works.

There is no chance whatsoever that regular people end up rich or even comfortable with a Universal program.



Agree 100%. Tech barons will be the new oil barons.
FLBear5630
How long do you want to ignore this user?
boognish_bear said:

Oldbear83 said:

boognish_bear said:

cowboycwr said:

Oldbear83 said:

cowboycwr said:

Oldbear83 said:

boognish_bear said:

That all sounds good until they start shooting lasers at us… Ha ha



I wonder why we never hear the details on how this is going to work.

Right now, investors own the machines that automate manufacturing and they own the AI that is starting to winnow headcount in data roles. The rewards for automation are therefore going to company owners and AI companies. There is no evidence that is going to change anytime soon.

So what happens is at some point we will do one of three things:

I) We create a bunch of new jobs that can go to the people canned from their former jobs, or we will face a serious employment crisis. That is, we are headed to a place where maybe 35% of the population has zero workdays a week for zero income excepting unemployment, with another 15-20% underemployed by working for less pay in whatever jobs they can get and keep. GDP will continue to grow for a time because corporate profits will be healthy, but it will cast a false image for the nation as a whole;

II) Some idiot in Congress, most likely with a (D) by their name, decides to tax the crap out of any company using AI and reducing headcount. This gets popular and becomes law, and companies scale back their AI development and employees feel better protected by Congress. Problem is, other countries continue their AI development and eat up the majority of market share as the US gets left behind in product price and quality;

III) Someone leading an AI company sees what's coming and works out an agreement to develop AI while also protecting jobs, maintaining headcount while developing AI tech, using gains to deliver moderate profit growth while also cutting prices so as to gain market share and deliver real value to the average American.

The problem I have when I hear these promises from Gates and Musk, is that the evidence of their track record does not show price cutting or profit-sharing with the nation in general, so I cannot consider these men the leaders who will actually be AI's version of Henry Ford.


You forgot a fourth option.

Universal income. That is the only way people could work fewer days or not at all and survive.

That's an obscenely bad idea.

Think it through, starting with who would control that program.


Oh I agree. I wasn't supporting it. Just stating that you know the people saying AI is going to replace jobs, like a Bill Gates who leans left, will start pushing that idea.

Heck some already have. I believe there are posts in this thread that talk about it. I'd have to go find them but I feel like there was one that said AI and robots will replace most workers within 10 years (or similar time frame) and we would have a universal income to allow people to live.

I don't like the idea but also if robots and AI eventually do every job out there people would need a way to get money.


He is not left-leaning… But Elon is one who talks about UBI.



Here's the rub:

Right now the owners of AI tech get the profits it creates for them, not workers.

Those same owners lobby Congress to get protection, and again no one is looking out for the workers.

You'd have to be on some major drugs to imagine the guys running AI would agree to give up money to the ordinary people.

Look at how Unemployment works, look at how Social Security works.

There is no chance whatsoever that regular people end up rich or even comfortable with a Universal program.



Agree 100%. Tech barons will be the new oil barons.

Will be??
historian
How long do you want to ignore this user?
EatMoreSalmon said:

boognish_bear said:



Getting closer, but energy storage still needs drastic improvement and lower cost to make anything like that work. Solar farms would also make that desert even more barren. Just use available roofs, parking lot covers, and other already available and less intrusive places.

The three HEB's on my town have solar panels on their roofs.
“Incline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
historian
How long do you want to ignore this user?
BearFan33 said:

Assassin said:

Not AI but there isnt a thread for it and I don't want to start one!



That looks fun.

Harass the people on the boat with drone swarms while the flying marines land.

The video needs music accompaniment: James Bond theme of maybe Superman.
“Incline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
historian
How long do you want to ignore this user?
cowboycwr said:

Oldbear83 said:

boognish_bear said:

That all sounds good until they start shooting lasers at us… Ha ha



I wonder why we never hear the details on how this is going to work.

Right now, investors own the machines that automate manufacturing and they own the AI that is starting to winnow headcount in data roles. The rewards for automation are therefore going to company owners and AI companies. There is no evidence that is going to change anytime soon.

So what happens is at some point we will do one of three things:

I) We create a bunch of new jobs that can go to the people canned from their former jobs, or we will face a serious employment crisis. That is, we are headed to a place where maybe 35% of the population has zero workdays a week for zero income excepting unemployment, with another 15-20% underemployed by working for less pay in whatever jobs they can get and keep. GDP will continue to grow for a time because corporate profits will be healthy, but it will cast a false image for the nation as a whole;

II) Some idiot in Congress, most likely with a (D) by their name, decides to tax the crap out of any company using AI and reducing headcount. This gets popular and becomes law, and companies scale back their AI development and employees feel better protected by Congress. Problem is, other countries continue their AI development and eat up the majority of market share as the US gets left behind in product price and quality;

III) Someone leading an AI company sees what's coming and works out an agreement to develop AI while also protecting jobs, maintaining headcount while developing AI tech, using gains to deliver moderate profit growth while also cutting prices so as to gain market share and deliver real value to the average American.

The problem I have when I hear these promises from Gates and Musk, is that the evidence of their track record does not show price cutting or profit-sharing with the nation in general, so I cannot consider these men the leaders who will actually be AI's version of Henry Ford.


You forgot a fourth option.

Universal income. That is the only way people could work fewer days or not at all and survive.

That's socialism & never works. Why should those who work hard and succeed share their income with dead beats? They shouldn't and they wouldn't. That is the inevitable result.
“Incline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
historian
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Amazon's new robots in their warehouses;

https://notthebee.com/article/come-see-the-robot-that-is-going-to-replace-at-least-600000-workers-at-amazon-soon
“Incline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
cowboycwr
How long do you want to ignore this user?
historian said:

cowboycwr said:

Oldbear83 said:

boognish_bear said:

That all sounds good until they start shooting lasers at us… Ha ha



I wonder why we never hear the details on how this is going to work.

Right now, investors own the machines that automate manufacturing and they own the AI that is starting to winnow headcount in data roles. The rewards for automation are therefore going to company owners and AI companies. There is no evidence that is going to change anytime soon.

So what happens is at some point we will do one of three things:

I) We create a bunch of new jobs that can go to the people canned from their former jobs, or we will face a serious employment crisis. That is, we are headed to a place where maybe 35% of the population has zero workdays a week for zero income excepting unemployment, with another 15-20% underemployed by working for less pay in whatever jobs they can get and keep. GDP will continue to grow for a time because corporate profits will be healthy, but it will cast a false image for the nation as a whole;

II) Some idiot in Congress, most likely with a (D) by their name, decides to tax the crap out of any company using AI and reducing headcount. This gets popular and becomes law, and companies scale back their AI development and employees feel better protected by Congress. Problem is, other countries continue their AI development and eat up the majority of market share as the US gets left behind in product price and quality;

III) Someone leading an AI company sees what's coming and works out an agreement to develop AI while also protecting jobs, maintaining headcount while developing AI tech, using gains to deliver moderate profit growth while also cutting prices so as to gain market share and deliver real value to the average American.

The problem I have when I hear these promises from Gates and Musk, is that the evidence of their track record does not show price cutting or profit-sharing with the nation in general, so I cannot consider these men the leaders who will actually be AI's version of Henry Ford.


You forgot a fourth option.

Universal income. That is the only way people could work fewer days or not at all and survive.

That's socialism & never works. Why should those who work hard and succeed share their income with dead beats? They shouldn't and they wouldn't. That is the inevitable result.


Read my post just after the one you quoted. I am not supporting it but if some of these predictions come true of ai/robots replacing the majority of jobs or all jobs this idea would be pushed more because if 90% of jobs disappear it wouldn't be a case of "deadbeats" without jobs.

I don't think it will happen as it is a bad idea and I don't see how AI and robots will replace even half of the jobs out there but it was a forgotten option to the 3 given.
FLBear5630
How long do you want to ignore this user?
cowboycwr said:

historian said:

cowboycwr said:

Oldbear83 said:

boognish_bear said:

That all sounds good until they start shooting lasers at us… Ha ha



I wonder why we never hear the details on how this is going to work.

Right now, investors own the machines that automate manufacturing and they own the AI that is starting to winnow headcount in data roles. The rewards for automation are therefore going to company owners and AI companies. There is no evidence that is going to change anytime soon.

So what happens is at some point we will do one of three things:

I) We create a bunch of new jobs that can go to the people canned from their former jobs, or we will face a serious employment crisis. That is, we are headed to a place where maybe 35% of the population has zero workdays a week for zero income excepting unemployment, with another 15-20% underemployed by working for less pay in whatever jobs they can get and keep. GDP will continue to grow for a time because corporate profits will be healthy, but it will cast a false image for the nation as a whole;

II) Some idiot in Congress, most likely with a (D) by their name, decides to tax the crap out of any company using AI and reducing headcount. This gets popular and becomes law, and companies scale back their AI development and employees feel better protected by Congress. Problem is, other countries continue their AI development and eat up the majority of market share as the US gets left behind in product price and quality;

III) Someone leading an AI company sees what's coming and works out an agreement to develop AI while also protecting jobs, maintaining headcount while developing AI tech, using gains to deliver moderate profit growth while also cutting prices so as to gain market share and deliver real value to the average American.

The problem I have when I hear these promises from Gates and Musk, is that the evidence of their track record does not show price cutting or profit-sharing with the nation in general, so I cannot consider these men the leaders who will actually be AI's version of Henry Ford.


You forgot a fourth option.

Universal income. That is the only way people could work fewer days or not at all and survive.

That's socialism & never works. Why should those who work hard and succeed share their income with dead beats? They shouldn't and they wouldn't. That is the inevitable result.


Read my post just after the one you quoted. I am not supporting it but if some of these predictions come true of ai/robots replacing the majority of jobs or all jobs this idea would be pushed more because if 90% of jobs disappear it wouldn't be a case of "deadbeats" without jobs.

I don't think it will happen as it is a bad idea and I don't see how AI and robots will replace even half of the jobs out there but it was a forgotten option to the 3 given.


biggest misconception is the we will control.AI and the outcomes for our benefit.
KaiBear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
boognish_bear said:




Is our GDP really 3.9% or is it merely fake news ?
boognish_bear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
KaiBear said:

boognish_bear said:




Is our GDP really 3.9% or is it merely fake news ?


ChatGPT fwiw

KaiBear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
boognish_bear said:

KaiBear said:

boognish_bear said:




Is our GDP really 3.9% or is it merely fake news ?


ChatGPT fwiw




Not an economist…..but isn't this good news ?

Thought the trade tariffs were destroying our economy.

whiterock
How long do you want to ignore this user?
boognish_bear said:



the federal push on the DCs is palpable. It's a national security imperative which has the better part of $17T of investment queued up.

State & local governments are going to have to make the infrastructure happen (water, electricity, gas, roads, etc....) or they're going to get left behind.

I was told by a very sober and widely respected elected official with a background of decades in private sector finance: "don't worry about the money; do what you have to do to make (the DCs) happen and the money will be there."
whiterock
How long do you want to ignore this user?
KaiBear said:

boognish_bear said:

KaiBear said:

boognish_bear said:




Is our GDP really 3.9% or is it merely fake news ?


ChatGPT fwiw




Not an economist…..but isn't this good news ?

Thought the trade tariffs were destroying our economy.



I would assume the GDP spike is because investment numbers are going up....from the investment portions of the trade deals. Going to be a very good 24-36 months for top-line GDP numbers, thanks to those investments alone.

How much that will translate to middle class consumer sentiment remains unknown, but the poll I posted somewhere here a few days ago is encouraging - the number of people who see the economy as the #1 issue has dropped by nearly half. So the emerging trend is positive.
KaiBear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Strange how such good GDP numbers are not broadcasted by the media.

Or by the administration.
BearFan33
How long do you want to ignore this user?
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ai-fighter-jet-x-bat-built-outsmart-chinas-first-strike

This relates to our drone discussion in the air

The capability these drones would offer is pretty amazing. Could be launched from ships, ground or mobile platforms.
boognish_bear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
We were kind of already halfway there with the self checkout lanes.

Assassin
How long do you want to ignore this user?
boognish_bear said:

We were kind of already halfway there with the self checkout lanes.



What will it do for the homeless guy that uses it for a mobile home?
"An unexamined life is not worth living." - Socrates
FLBear5630
How long do you want to ignore this user?
KaiBear said:

Strange how such good GDP numbers are not broadcasted by the media.

Or by the administration.

So the question for Whiterock and tartiff proponents, does this count as part of the trade deficit? How much of the AI is manufactured in the US? Does the production of AI services count a service or manufactured good?

40% of that GDP growth was AI. Did it add to the trade deficit which is catastrophic according to tariffs proponents? Or is the economy changing and the old school definitions are not adequate to describe the current conditions? You can't tell me that 40% growth in the production of textiles is better than 40% growth in AI in 2025.
cowboycwr
How long do you want to ignore this user?
boognish_bear said:

We were kind of already halfway there with the self checkout lanes.




What will it do when it detects items in the cart that haven't been scanned? How will it handle the kid sitting in the cart?

Seems to me it leaves the same problems that self checkout has. Or those systems that were supposed to scan your cart to get a total.

And besides curbside/delivery was the real reason cashiers were on the decline.

I can see another argument people will make "I don't work for the store. I'm not scanning an entire shopping cart of items."
Oldbear83
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Assassin said:

boognish_bear said:

We were kind of already halfway there with the self checkout lanes.



What will it do for the homeless guy that uses it for a mobile home?

Porta Potty
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
whiterock
How long do you want to ignore this user?
FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

Strange how such good GDP numbers are not broadcasted by the media.

Or by the administration.

So the question for Whiterock and tartiff proponents, does this count as part of the trade deficit? How much of the AI is manufactured in the US? Does the production of AI services count a service or manufactured good?

40% of that GDP growth was AI. Did it add to the trade deficit which is catastrophic according to tariffs proponents? Or is the economy changing and the old school definitions are not adequate to describe the current conditions? You can't tell me that 40% growth in the production of textiles is better than 40% growth in AI in 2025.

Trade balance by month from February 2025, the first full month of the Trump presidency:
January: -$131.4B
February: -$123.2B
March: -$140B
April: -$61.6b
May: -$71.7B
June: -$60.2B
July: -$78.3B
August: -$78.3B
September: +$164B

Remember: for an economy running structural trade deficits, the trade deficit typically tracks GDP. It contracts when GDP declines, and yawns then GDP expands (since the deficit is a function of domestic demand exceeding domestic supply). It would make more sense to apply that template...a slowing economy....to the early part of the trend line than new Trump policies.....that the declines from the $120-140B range down to lows in the $60-70B range probably reflect a slowing economy moreso than his policies, since his policies had not had time to take effect. Remember, Trump was certainly acting like he was dealing with a slowing economy, throwing bricks at the Fed early/often to lower interest rates. And then, most of the trade deals did not conclude until July-August.

So September was the first full month of results under the new policy structure. And....voila....we got a surplus. Is that a blip, or a start of a trend? Answer: too soon to tell. But when we get to the first qtr of 2026, it'll probably mark the turning point of positive trends toward actual balance.

Similarly, is it a coincidence that we got a trade surplus right at the time we get a surprisingly good GDP number under new trade policies? Perhaps. But, then, I'm trying not to say I told you so.....yet. The numbers will blip up & down a few months before trends are clear.
Redbrickbear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
boognish_bear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I know it will continue to improve at an exponential rate...but I still catch ai chatbots making mistakes more frequently than I expect.
FLBear5630
How long do you want to ignore this user?
whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

KaiBear said:

Strange how such good GDP numbers are not broadcasted by the media.

Or by the administration.

So the question for Whiterock and tartiff proponents, does this count as part of the trade deficit? How much of the AI is manufactured in the US? Does the production of AI services count a service or manufactured good?

40% of that GDP growth was AI. Did it add to the trade deficit which is catastrophic according to tariffs proponents? Or is the economy changing and the old school definitions are not adequate to describe the current conditions? You can't tell me that 40% growth in the production of textiles is better than 40% growth in AI in 2025.

Trade balance by month from February 2025, the first full month of the Trump presidency:
January: -$131.4B
February: -$123.2B
March: -$140B
April: -$61.6b
May: -$71.7B
June: -$60.2B
July: -$78.3B
August: -$78.3B
September: +$164B

Remember: for an economy running structural trade deficits, the trade deficit typically tracks GDP. It contracts when GDP declines, and yawns then GDP expands (since the deficit is a function of domestic demand exceeding domestic supply). It would make more sense to apply that template...a slowing economy....to the early part of the trend line than new Trump policies.....that the declines from the $120-140B range down to lows in the $60-70B range probably reflect a slowing economy moreso than his policies, since his policies had not had time to take effect. Remember, Trump was certainly acting like he was dealing with a slowing economy, throwing bricks at the Fed early/often to lower interest rates. And then, most of the trade deals did not conclude until July-August.

So September was the first full month of results under the new policy structure. And....voila....we got a surplus. Is that a blip, or a start of a trend? Answer: too soon to tell. But when we get to the first qtr of 2026, it'll probably mark the turning point of positive trends toward actual balance.

Similarly, is it a coincidence that we got a trade surplus right at the time we get a surprisingly good GDP number under new trade policies? Perhaps. But, then, I'm trying not to say I told you so.....yet. The numbers will blip up & down a few months before trends are clear.

More lectures...
FLBear5630
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Redbrickbear said:



AI and the general information age is taking experience out of the equation because the younger generation are not having to do the entry level steps that give the foundation of "Senior Experience". Most junior and now mid-level employees have not done the basics of their jobs by hand. It has been computer driven data.

I saw the beginnings of computerized engineering for roads. I remember the presentation that the new software will do all the calcs and tangents, and the old engineer in the back said "where's the fun in that"? Going in the field and seeing the terrain to solve problems is the fun part of the job. Not anymore.

Anyone remember Apollo 13? The movie, where they threw everything on the table and said we have to make that fit into this and do these functions. Everyone loved that scene, it wouldn't happen today. The computer AI would figure it out. We would watch and maybe truth check with spot checks. AI is going to be bad for the common person's abilities as we rely more and more on AI.

I remember doing traffic counts sitting at intersections for 3 hours counting cars and the different movements, technology does that now. Cameras and software. Tech doesn't give you a feel for what is happening, it is 2 dimensional.

This is not a good thing for people. It may be good for ROI and Wall St metrics, but not for people. WAZE and Mapping software have made people LESS good at navigation. AI will take that to the n-th degree. This is not a good thing.

A few CEOs will make a lot of money, Whiterock will be happy, but there are a lot of potential negatives that no one seems to care about, after all they are not included in the Wall Street metrics that dictate what is good or bad.


Neuroplasticity and internet use: How digital life is rewiring our brains
Is AI Ruining Your Kid's Critical Thinking? | Psychology Today
whiterock
How long do you want to ignore this user?
FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:



AI and the general information age is taking experience out of the equation because the younger generation are not having to do the entry level steps that give the foundation of "Senior Experience". Most junior and now mid-level employees have not done the basics of their jobs by hand. It has been computer driven data.

I saw the beginnings of computerized engineering for roads. I remember the presentation that the new software will do all the calcs and tangents, and the old engineer in the back said "where's the fun in that"? Going in the field and seeing the terrain to solve problems is the fun part of the job. Not anymore.

Anyone remember Apollo 13? The movie, where they threw everything on the table and said we have to make that fit into this and do these functions. Everyone loved that scene, it wouldn't happen today. The computer AI would figure it out. We would watch and maybe truth check with spot checks. AI is going to be bad for the common person's abilities as we rely more and more on AI.

I remember doing traffic counts sitting at intersections for 3 hours counting cars and the different movements, technology does that now. Cameras and software. Tech doesn't give you a feel for what is happening, it is 2 dimensional.

This is not a good thing for people. It may be good for ROI and Wall St metrics, but not for people. WAZE and Mapping software have made people LESS good at navigation. AI will take that to the n-th degree. This is not a good thing.

A few CEOs will make a lot of money, Whiterock will be happy, but there are a lot of potential negatives that no one seems to care about, after all they are not included in the Wall Street metrics that dictate what is good or bad.


Neuroplasticity and internet use: How digital life is rewiring our brains
Is AI Ruining Your Kid's Critical Thinking? | Psychology Today

Ya know, everybody said the cotton gin would kill a lot of jobs. And it did. But a lot of those cotton pickers moved off the farm and found jobs in the burgeoning textile industry created by the cotton gin. Ford's assembly line killed a lot of buggy maker jobs, too. And like the cotton pickers, the buggy makers found something else to do. Sure, it's possible that this new technological revolution will defy history and create no new jobs. And it's certainly reasonable to ponder that question. But it's also reasonable to watch & wait & look for opportunities created by the new technology. THAT is the historical precedent. So what do we need to do to help those new jobs appear faster?

The new millionaires will be the plumbers and electricians, right? Perhaps those coders need to learn a new trade. I know that sounds harsh, but that's what we told the coal miners and steel workers in the Rust Belt back in the day....... Isn't it interesting that Trump got Harvard to build technical training programs? What might his admin have seen to motivate them to leverage that into a lawsuit settlement? What changes might he look to make in the college loan program to shift more resources over to funding technical education rather than the "new classics" of grievance theories? Shouldn't inquiring minds want to know stuff like that?

We are entering a period of historic change. It'd be a shame to get so bogged down in the neverTrump nonsense that you miss seeing it happen.
FLBear5630
How long do you want to ignore this user?
whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:



AI and the general information age is taking experience out of the equation because the younger generation are not having to do the entry level steps that give the foundation of "Senior Experience". Most junior and now mid-level employees have not done the basics of their jobs by hand. It has been computer driven data.

I saw the beginnings of computerized engineering for roads. I remember the presentation that the new software will do all the calcs and tangents, and the old engineer in the back said "where's the fun in that"? Going in the field and seeing the terrain to solve problems is the fun part of the job. Not anymore.

Anyone remember Apollo 13? The movie, where they threw everything on the table and said we have to make that fit into this and do these functions. Everyone loved that scene, it wouldn't happen today. The computer AI would figure it out. We would watch and maybe truth check with spot checks. AI is going to be bad for the common person's abilities as we rely more and more on AI.

I remember doing traffic counts sitting at intersections for 3 hours counting cars and the different movements, technology does that now. Cameras and software. Tech doesn't give you a feel for what is happening, it is 2 dimensional.

This is not a good thing for people. It may be good for ROI and Wall St metrics, but not for people. WAZE and Mapping software have made people LESS good at navigation. AI will take that to the n-th degree. This is not a good thing.

A few CEOs will make a lot of money, Whiterock will be happy, but there are a lot of potential negatives that no one seems to care about, after all they are not included in the Wall Street metrics that dictate what is good or bad.


Neuroplasticity and internet use: How digital life is rewiring our brains
Is AI Ruining Your Kid's Critical Thinking? | Psychology Today

Ya know, everybody said the cotton gin would kill a lot of jobs. And it did. But a lot of those cotton pickers moved off the farm and found jobs in the burgeoning textile industry created by the cotton gin. Ford's assembly line killed a lot of buggy maker jobs, too. And like the cotton pickers, the buggy makers found something else to do. Sure, it's possible that this new technological revolution will defy history and create no new jobs. And it's certainly reasonable to ponder that question. But it's also reasonable to watch & wait & look for opportunities created by the new technology. THAT is the historical precedent. So what do we need to do to help those new jobs appear faster?

The new millionaires will be the plumbers and electricians, right? Perhaps those coders need to learn a new trade. I know that sounds harsh, but that's what we told the coal miners and steel workers in the Rust Belt back in the day....... Isn't it interesting that Trump got Harvard to build technical training programs? What might his admin have seen to motivate them to leverage that into a lawsuit settlement? What changes might he look to make in the college loan program to shift more resources over to funding technical education rather than the "new classics" of grievance theories? Shouldn't inquiring minds want to know stuff like that?

We are entering a period of historic change. It'd be a shame to get so bogged down in the neverTrump nonsense that you miss seeing it happen.

All MAGA/LIB banter aside.

This is a little different than a mechanical advantage. Nothing that the human race has seen is in the same ball park as AI and its ultimate evolution to Super Intelligence. Some think it would be the promised land, others the end of the species. Funny thing is neither side believes the other, but can't say they are wrong. The margins here are super thin. It is not something we should be rushing into without some real thought and constraints. Afterall we have such a great history with controlling things after they are out.

Assassin
How long do you want to ignore this user?
FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:



AI and the general information age is taking experience out of the equation because the younger generation are not having to do the entry level steps that give the foundation of "Senior Experience". Most junior and now mid-level employees have not done the basics of their jobs by hand. It has been computer driven data.

I saw the beginnings of computerized engineering for roads. I remember the presentation that the new software will do all the calcs and tangents, and the old engineer in the back said "where's the fun in that"? Going in the field and seeing the terrain to solve problems is the fun part of the job. Not anymore.

Anyone remember Apollo 13? The movie, where they threw everything on the table and said we have to make that fit into this and do these functions. Everyone loved that scene, it wouldn't happen today. The computer AI would figure it out. We would watch and maybe truth check with spot checks. AI is going to be bad for the common person's abilities as we rely more and more on AI.

I remember doing traffic counts sitting at intersections for 3 hours counting cars and the different movements, technology does that now. Cameras and software. Tech doesn't give you a feel for what is happening, it is 2 dimensional.

This is not a good thing for people. It may be good for ROI and Wall St metrics, but not for people. WAZE and Mapping software have made people LESS good at navigation. AI will take that to the n-th degree. This is not a good thing.

A few CEOs will make a lot of money, Whiterock will be happy, but there are a lot of potential negatives that no one seems to care about, after all they are not included in the Wall Street metrics that dictate what is good or bad.

Yet it's coming and there is nothing you can do about it. Don't embrace it and get swept away with the other holdouts - or embrace it and see how it can make your life and job so much easier
"An unexamined life is not worth living." - Socrates
FLBear5630
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Assassin said:

FLBear5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:



AI and the general information age is taking experience out of the equation because the younger generation are not having to do the entry level steps that give the foundation of "Senior Experience". Most junior and now mid-level employees have not done the basics of their jobs by hand. It has been computer driven data.

I saw the beginnings of computerized engineering for roads. I remember the presentation that the new software will do all the calcs and tangents, and the old engineer in the back said "where's the fun in that"? Going in the field and seeing the terrain to solve problems is the fun part of the job. Not anymore.

Anyone remember Apollo 13? The movie, where they threw everything on the table and said we have to make that fit into this and do these functions. Everyone loved that scene, it wouldn't happen today. The computer AI would figure it out. We would watch and maybe truth check with spot checks. AI is going to be bad for the common person's abilities as we rely more and more on AI.

I remember doing traffic counts sitting at intersections for 3 hours counting cars and the different movements, technology does that now. Cameras and software. Tech doesn't give you a feel for what is happening, it is 2 dimensional.

This is not a good thing for people. It may be good for ROI and Wall St metrics, but not for people. WAZE and Mapping software have made people LESS good at navigation. AI will take that to the n-th degree. This is not a good thing.

A few CEOs will make a lot of money, Whiterock will be happy, but there are a lot of potential negatives that no one seems to care about, after all they are not included in the Wall Street metrics that dictate what is good or bad.

Yet it's coming and there is nothing you can do about it. Don't embrace it and get swept away with the other holdouts - or embrace it and see how it can make your life and job so much easier

I am not concerned over the intermediate term, the ones in danger are the entry, junior and middle levels. They have relied on it their entire careers, they don't know the basics from the grunt level. They will be hard pressed to move into roles where they are supposed to know if something is done correctly because they only relied on AI to tell them. They will be hurt.

Senior Mgt, they came up before AI. They had to do the grunt work and know Ops from the bottom up, so they have something AI can't simulate. That experience will be valuable. AI may actually cause a boom for older workers who do have critical thinking and grunt level skills and work ethics. Why I told my son to start in Ops, know the Ports from the bottom up.
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.