The future automation of the workforce

61,559 Views | 1048 Replies | Last: 7 hrs ago by cowboycwr
FLBear5630
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whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

EatMoreSalmon said:

boognish_bear said:

whiterock said:

boognish_bear said:





how about we balance the federal budget first, before moving on to balance the climate.


Elon was going to help tackle that… I guess he figured out that building AI satellites to stop global warming would be easier than fixing DC.


He might get fewer death threats from building a huge satellite net than he would from thinning up the federal budget.

You guys honestly don't see the hypocrisy of Trump and Musk (who at the point of DOGE had 38 billion Federal Contracts), complaining about Government contracts for other and randomly cutting for a photo op? It did nothing, but **** up a lot of people's lives, and they were wrong about most of it! They ended up hiring back or the "savings" never showed up, see SS roles of supposedly paying dead people.

Meanwhile, Donald's net worth has doubled through, get this, his tying the US Treasury to crypto, law suits he had DOJ set aside and now having the US tax payer pay him 230 million and a 747...

These guys that are selling you that there must be pain, while they are raking it in... You are being played for a sap.





A most profitable presidency | The Week
Trump's $230M DOJ settlement request faces scrutiny\
Report: Trump Received $885 Million in New York Tax Breaks


oh, look, there's another neverTrumper fighting everything Republicans are doing in the name of defending conservatism

Defending Conservatism? If Conservatism is the haves getting more at the expense of the "not's" I am out. If you have no issues with the Fox guarding the Hen House, this is more than just a political philosophy discussion. Racking up those bonuses, huh?
whiterock
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FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

EatMoreSalmon said:

boognish_bear said:

whiterock said:

boognish_bear said:





how about we balance the federal budget first, before moving on to balance the climate.


Elon was going to help tackle that… I guess he figured out that building AI satellites to stop global warming would be easier than fixing DC.


He might get fewer death threats from building a huge satellite net than he would from thinning up the federal budget.

You guys honestly don't see the hypocrisy of Trump and Musk (who at the point of DOGE had 38 billion Federal Contracts), complaining about Government contracts for other and randomly cutting for a photo op? It did nothing, but **** up a lot of people's lives, and they were wrong about most of it! They ended up hiring back or the "savings" never showed up, see SS roles of supposedly paying dead people.

Meanwhile, Donald's net worth has doubled through, get this, his tying the US Treasury to crypto, law suits he had DOJ set aside and now having the US tax payer pay him 230 million and a 747...

These guys that are selling you that there must be pain, while they are raking it in... You are being played for a sap.





A most profitable presidency | The Week
Trump's $230M DOJ settlement request faces scrutiny\
Report: Trump Received $885 Million in New York Tax Breaks


oh, look, there's another neverTrumper fighting everything Republicans are doing in the name of defending conservatism

Defending Conservatism? If Conservatism is the haves getting more at the expense of the "not's" I am out. If you have no issues with the Fox guarding the Hen House, this is more than just a political philosophy discussion. Racking up those bonuses, huh?

You mean like when Obama and Biden admins were executing consent agreements with blue constituencies in order to change/expand the meaning of law without statute or court order?

Why is it only a threat when Trump does it (on a valid claim to be reimbursed for highly partisan lawfare).
FLBear5630
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whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

EatMoreSalmon said:

boognish_bear said:

whiterock said:

boognish_bear said:





how about we balance the federal budget first, before moving on to balance the climate.


Elon was going to help tackle that… I guess he figured out that building AI satellites to stop global warming would be easier than fixing DC.


He might get fewer death threats from building a huge satellite net than he would from thinning up the federal budget.

You guys honestly don't see the hypocrisy of Trump and Musk (who at the point of DOGE had 38 billion Federal Contracts), complaining about Government contracts for other and randomly cutting for a photo op? It did nothing, but **** up a lot of people's lives, and they were wrong about most of it! They ended up hiring back or the "savings" never showed up, see SS roles of supposedly paying dead people.

Meanwhile, Donald's net worth has doubled through, get this, his tying the US Treasury to crypto, law suits he had DOJ set aside and now having the US tax payer pay him 230 million and a 747...

These guys that are selling you that there must be pain, while they are raking it in... You are being played for a sap.





A most profitable presidency | The Week
Trump's $230M DOJ settlement request faces scrutiny\
Report: Trump Received $885 Million in New York Tax Breaks


oh, look, there's another neverTrumper fighting everything Republicans are doing in the name of defending conservatism

Defending Conservatism? If Conservatism is the haves getting more at the expense of the "not's" I am out. If you have no issues with the Fox guarding the Hen House, this is more than just a political philosophy discussion. Racking up those bonuses, huh?

You mean like when Obama and Biden admins were executing consent agreements with blue constituencies in order to change/expand the meaning of law without statute or court order?

Why is it only a threat when Trump does it (on a valid claim to be reimbursed for highly partisan lawfare).

Because he is the guy in office doing the stuff now. We discussed Obama and Biden at the same levels when they did crap like this. You just like this guy, so you will change your views to fit what you like.
whiterock
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FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

EatMoreSalmon said:

boognish_bear said:

whiterock said:

boognish_bear said:





how about we balance the federal budget first, before moving on to balance the climate.


Elon was going to help tackle that… I guess he figured out that building AI satellites to stop global warming would be easier than fixing DC.


He might get fewer death threats from building a huge satellite net than he would from thinning up the federal budget.

You guys honestly don't see the hypocrisy of Trump and Musk (who at the point of DOGE had 38 billion Federal Contracts), complaining about Government contracts for other and randomly cutting for a photo op? It did nothing, but **** up a lot of people's lives, and they were wrong about most of it! They ended up hiring back or the "savings" never showed up, see SS roles of supposedly paying dead people.

Meanwhile, Donald's net worth has doubled through, get this, his tying the US Treasury to crypto, law suits he had DOJ set aside and now having the US tax payer pay him 230 million and a 747...

These guys that are selling you that there must be pain, while they are raking it in... You are being played for a sap.





A most profitable presidency | The Week
Trump's $230M DOJ settlement request faces scrutiny\
Report: Trump Received $885 Million in New York Tax Breaks


oh, look, there's another neverTrumper fighting everything Republicans are doing in the name of defending conservatism

Defending Conservatism? If Conservatism is the haves getting more at the expense of the "not's" I am out. If you have no issues with the Fox guarding the Hen House, this is more than just a political philosophy discussion. Racking up those bonuses, huh?

You mean like when Obama and Biden admins were executing consent agreements with blue constituencies in order to change/expand the meaning of law without statute or court order?

Why is it only a threat when Trump does it (on a valid claim to be reimbursed for highly partisan lawfare).

Because he is the guy in office doing the stuff now. We discussed Obama and Biden at the same levels when they did crap like this. You just like this guy, so you will change your views to fit what you like.

I supported Obama's drone strike program. I used to work with the guy who ran it - Mike D'Andrea. Mike was no Republican. He converted from Catholicism to islam to marry a delightful Mauritian woman of profound wealth named Farida. Mike had a "different" personality but a good guy. Nothing like how he was portrayed in Zero Dark Thirty. Opposite in almost every respect.
Assassin
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whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

EatMoreSalmon said:

boognish_bear said:

whiterock said:

boognish_bear said:





how about we balance the federal budget first, before moving on to balance the climate.


Elon was going to help tackle that… I guess he figured out that building AI satellites to stop global warming would be easier than fixing DC.


He might get fewer death threats from building a huge satellite net than he would from thinning up the federal budget.

You guys honestly don't see the hypocrisy of Trump and Musk (who at the point of DOGE had 38 billion Federal Contracts), complaining about Government contracts for other and randomly cutting for a photo op? It did nothing, but **** up a lot of people's lives, and they were wrong about most of it! They ended up hiring back or the "savings" never showed up, see SS roles of supposedly paying dead people.

Meanwhile, Donald's net worth has doubled through, get this, his tying the US Treasury to crypto, law suits he had DOJ set aside and now having the US tax payer pay him 230 million and a 747...

These guys that are selling you that there must be pain, while they are raking it in... You are being played for a sap.





A most profitable presidency | The Week
Trump's $230M DOJ settlement request faces scrutiny\
Report: Trump Received $885 Million in New York Tax Breaks


oh, look, there's another neverTrumper fighting everything Republicans are doing in the name of defending conservatism

Beat me to it
"The two most important days in your life are the day you are born and the day you find out why." — Mark Twain
cowboycwr
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FLBear5630 said:

This is not going to end well...



China tests 'wolf robot' assault force, destroys Taiwan's defenses in 10 seconds


Reading the article a few thoughts….


1. It is reported by Chinese media so of course it sounds like a smashing success


2. It didn't destroy defenses in less than 10 seconds. Rather it detects a threat, responds (shoots) and hits the target in under 10 seconds.

3. It is Chinese media so of course it is reported as a smashing success
Oldbear83
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Kinda like China's carrier fleet ...
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
FLBear5630
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cowboycwr said:

FLBear5630 said:

This is not going to end well...



China tests 'wolf robot' assault force, destroys Taiwan's defenses in 10 seconds


Reading the article a few thoughts….


1. It is reported by Chinese media so of course it sounds like a smashing success


2. It didn't destroy defenses in less than 10 seconds. Rather it detects a threat, responds (shoots) and hits the target in under 10 seconds.

3. It is Chinese media so of course it is reported as a smashing success


actually it wasn't. they are bad at defense snd not combat ready. You guys ever think ahead? This is where they are going and they will get it at some point. not everything has repercussions immediately. u guys ever look at trends?
Oldbear83
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FLBear5630 said:

cowboycwr said:

FLBear5630 said:

This is not going to end well...



China tests 'wolf robot' assault force, destroys Taiwan's defenses in 10 seconds


Reading the article a few thoughts….


1. It is reported by Chinese media so of course it sounds like a smashing success


2. It didn't destroy defenses in less than 10 seconds. Rather it detects a threat, responds (shoots) and hits the target in under 10 seconds.

3. It is Chinese media so of course it is reported as a smashing success


actually it wasn't. they are bad at defense snd not combat ready. You guys ever think ahead? This is where they are going and they will get it at some point. not everything has repercussions immediately. u guys ever look at trends?

What I do is read a lot, and pay attention to History. China is very good at stealing technology and sometimes reverse engineering, but they suck all at genuine creation.

I mentioned China's abysmal attempt to develop a decent aircraft carrier. They finally got desperate enough to buy the Kuznetsov from Russia when the Russkies gave up on building a second-rate carrier, let alone a blue-water power projection force. The results are not talked about in Beijing.

China has been hungry for decades to be one of the big players, and to that end has bought or stolen every kind of strategic tool, economic as much as military. It's also telling that for all the saber-rattling, Beijing has not launched an invasion of Taiwan. Another scenario we have heard about for decades, but it somehow has not happened, not even when we had a potato in the Oval Office for all practical purposes, and Beijing knew this.

I could go on about the contradictions in China, like trying to build cutting-edge jet fighters at the same time as developing drone swarms that were supposed to make fighters obsolete. My point there is that China does not have a unified plan for their main strategy; they do not even have a single military leader in control of their forces. That is by Xi's intent, to prevent a possible rival for Politburo influence.

Ironically, Xi faced an internal crisis this summer, according to a number of people in IC, and at one point was out of public view for almost two months. It depends on who tells the story whether Xi was ducking enemies or was actually in a kind of house arrest, but almost two dozen senior Chinese military officials died during that time, some being arrested and executed, some dying from odd accidents and four from unexpected heart attacks. If nothing else. the senior military leadership in China is still getting used to their new roles.

Additional concerns about uprisings in Southwest China, a number of accidents along the Mongolian frontier, and unexpected volatility in the stock market also raise questions about China's plans and stability. This is one reason for Xi's recent deals with Putin - he needs to quiet Russian concerns in order to have free hands to work against Trump as much as he can.

There are a lot of moving parts at work, but it should be understood that China is not in control by any rational standard.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
FLBear5630
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Oldbear83 said:

FLBear5630 said:

cowboycwr said:

FLBear5630 said:

This is not going to end well...



China tests 'wolf robot' assault force, destroys Taiwan's defenses in 10 seconds


Reading the article a few thoughts….


1. It is reported by Chinese media so of course it sounds like a smashing success


2. It didn't destroy defenses in less than 10 seconds. Rather it detects a threat, responds (shoots) and hits the target in under 10 seconds.

3. It is Chinese media so of course it is reported as a smashing success


actually it wasn't. they are bad at defense snd not combat ready. You guys ever think ahead? This is where they are going and they will get it at some point. not everything has repercussions immediately. u guys ever look at trends?

What I do is read a lot, and pay attention to History. China is very good at stealing technology and sometimes reverse engineering, but they suck all at genuine creation.

I mentioned China's abysmal attempt to develop a decent aircraft carrier. They finally got desperate enough to buy the Kuznetsov from Russia when the Russkies gave up on building a second-rate carrier, let alone a blue-water power projection force. The results are not talked about in Beijing.

China has been hungry for decades to be one of the big players, and to that end has bought or stolen every kind of strategic tool, economic as much as military. It's also telling that for all the saber-rattling, Beijing has not launched an invasion of Taiwan. Another scenario we have heard about for decades, but it somehow has not happened, not even when we had a potato in the Oval Office for all practical purposes, and Beijing knew this.

I could go on about the contradictions in China, like trying to build cutting-edge jet fighters at the same time as developing drone swarms that were supposed to make fighters obsolete. My point there is that China does not have a unified plan for their main strategy; they do not even have a single military leader in control of their forces. That is by Xi's intent, to prevent a possible rival for Politburo influence.

Ironically, Xi faced an internal crisis this summer, according to a number of people in IC, and at one point was out of public view for almost two months. It depends on who tells the story whether Xi was ducking enemies or was actually in a kind of house arrest, but almost two dozen senior Chinese military officials died during that time, some being arrested and executed, some dying from odd accidents and four from unexpected heart attacks. If nothing else. the senior military leadership in China is still getting used to their new roles.

Additional concerns about uprisings in Southwest China, a number of accidents along the Mongolian frontier, and unexpected volatility in the stock market also raise questions about China's plans and stability. This is one reason for Xi's recent deals with Putin - he needs to quiet Russian concerns in order to have free hands to work against Trump as much as he can.

There are a lot of moving parts at work, but it should be understood that China is not in control by any rational standard.


you should also know that history is a poor indicator of the future. China was bad at new ideas, the China you describe is the China of 20 to 30 years ago. They are doing pretty good at innovation recently. i see a lot of hubris on this site.
Oldbear83
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I will listen to pros with decades in the business, you can go with your paranoia and delusion.

We'll see soon enough who is right.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
EatMoreSalmon
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cowboycwr said:

FLBear5630 said:

This is not going to end well...



China tests 'wolf robot' assault force, destroys Taiwan's defenses in 10 seconds


Reading the article a few thoughts….


1. It is reported by Chinese media so of course it sounds like a smashing success


2. It didn't destroy defenses in less than 10 seconds. Rather it detects a threat, responds (shoots) and hits the target in under 10 seconds.

3. It is Chinese media so of course it is reported as a smashing success


Counter with a wookie…

Assassin
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"The two most important days in your life are the day you are born and the day you find out why." — Mark Twain
FLBear5630
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Oldbear83 said:

I will listen to pros with decades in the business, you can go with your paranoia and delusion.

We'll see soon enough who is right.

Machines operating independently on the battlefield does not end well for either side. You guys are stuck in a US vs China loop, the paradigm is about to shift. If we are not smart, which we do not have a good track record on, this will be AI/Machines vs humans.
FLBear5630
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Oldbear83 said:

I will listen to pros with decades in the business, you can go with your paranoia and delusion.

We'll see soon enough who is right.

By the way, which pros are you listening to? You may want to get a new group of "Pros", the thought that China only steals tech and is not capable of innovation is outdated. Do a little of your own research, question the "pros" and look at the reward structure. We need more liberal arts education; critical thinking seems to be not only lacking but when you do question people are attacked. That is a bad combination. Question the hell out of everything.
Realitybites
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Quote:


you should also know that history is a poor indicator of the future. China was bad at new ideas, the China you describe is the China of 20 to 30 years ago. They are doing pretty good at innovation recently. i see a lot of hubris on this site.



True. You cannot underestimate them.
whiterock
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FLBear5630 said:

cowboycwr said:

FLBear5630 said:

This is not going to end well...



China tests 'wolf robot' assault force, destroys Taiwan's defenses in 10 seconds


Reading the article a few thoughts….


1. It is reported by Chinese media so of course it sounds like a smashing success


2. It didn't destroy defenses in less than 10 seconds. Rather it detects a threat, responds (shoots) and hits the target in under 10 seconds.

3. It is Chinese media so of course it is reported as a smashing success


actually it wasn't. they are bad at defense snd not combat ready. You guys ever think ahead? This is where they are going and they will get it at some point. not everything has repercussions immediately. u guys ever look at trends?

correct. Chinese military drills are highly scripted theater, crisp and tidy and totally unrealistic training. They will have a hard time adjusting to the fog of war. They will do it, of course, but it will take many months for them to learn the requisite lessons, affording us an envelope to deliver a decisive blow.

When planning for war with a numerically superior adversary, one typically seeks to use superior technology to more than offset his advantage in numbers. We for most of the last 70 years had a comfortable margin of technological superiority versus all potential adversaries. It is highly concerning when we see a numerically superior adversary start to test and then field technology equal or better than our own.

Kennedy galvanized us to action to overcome a Soviet lead in the space race. Trump is doing the same on the AI race. China is too close. We must open up a decisive lead.
Assassin
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The Woke Pope chimes in

"The two most important days in your life are the day you are born and the day you find out why." — Mark Twain
Assassin
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"The two most important days in your life are the day you are born and the day you find out why." — Mark Twain
cowboycwr
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FLBear5630 said:

cowboycwr said:

FLBear5630 said:

This is not going to end well...



China tests 'wolf robot' assault force, destroys Taiwan's defenses in 10 seconds


Reading the article a few thoughts….


1. It is reported by Chinese media so of course it sounds like a smashing success


2. It didn't destroy defenses in less than 10 seconds. Rather it detects a threat, responds (shoots) and hits the target in under 10 seconds.

3. It is Chinese media so of course it is reported as a smashing success


actually it wasn't. they are bad at defense snd not combat ready. You guys ever think ahead? This is where they are going and they will get it at some point. not everything has repercussions immediately. u guys ever look at trends?


I am not even sure of what you are trying to say here and think you replied to my post without reading and understanding what I said because everything you said either has nothing to do with what I posted or is the exact meaning of my post.
Assassin
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The Navy Has 1 Big Advantage over China's New Aircraft Carriers
"The two most important days in your life are the day you are born and the day you find out why." — Mark Twain
Oldbear83
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I note that I gave saliant examples, while you have not.

Let's start with an easy one: are you aware of the military purges in China this year? How do they compare with, say, Putin's purges in Russia when he invaded Ukraine?

That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
Oldbear83
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Realitybites said:

Quote:


you should also know that history is a poor indicator of the future. China was bad at new ideas, the China you describe is the China of 20 to 30 years ago. They are doing pretty good at innovation recently. i see a lot of hubris on this site.



True. You cannot underestimate them.


Not making that mistake, but please explain why China mainland did not invade Taiwan during Biden's time in office?

And yes, there is a very important reason. Just one a lot of Americans don't know.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
EatMoreSalmon
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Assassin said:

The Navy Has 1 Big Advantage over China's New Aircraft Carriers

Japan's pilot training was superior to America's in the beginning of WWII. That advantage was wiped out inside of a year of war.
The allies won because they could produce much more and advance faster than the Axis. It was the experience of US factories in mass production.
BearFan33
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EatMoreSalmon said:

Assassin said:

The Navy Has 1 Big Advantage over China's New Aircraft Carriers

Japan's pilot training was superior to America's in the beginning of WWII. That advantage was wiped out inside of a year of war.
The allies won because they could produce much more and advance faster than the Axis. It was the experience of US factories in mass production.

Germany was superior as well. We won by sheer numbers and logistics. Good lessons to remember in our inevitable conflict with China.
FLBear5630
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whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

cowboycwr said:

FLBear5630 said:

This is not going to end well...



China tests 'wolf robot' assault force, destroys Taiwan's defenses in 10 seconds


Reading the article a few thoughts….


1. It is reported by Chinese media so of course it sounds like a smashing success


2. It didn't destroy defenses in less than 10 seconds. Rather it detects a threat, responds (shoots) and hits the target in under 10 seconds.

3. It is Chinese media so of course it is reported as a smashing success


actually it wasn't. they are bad at defense snd not combat ready. You guys ever think ahead? This is where they are going and they will get it at some point. not everything has repercussions immediately. u guys ever look at trends?

correct. Chinese military drills are highly scripted theater, crisp and tidy and totally unrealistic training. They will have a hard time adjusting to the fog of war. They will do it, of course, but it will take many months for them to learn the requisite lessons, affording us an envelope to deliver a decisive blow.

When planning for war with a numerically superior adversary, one typically seeks to use superior technology to more than offset his advantage in numbers. We for most of the last 70 years had a comfortable margin of technological superiority versus all potential adversaries. It is highly concerning when we see a numerically superior adversary start to test and then field technology equal or better than our own.

Kennedy galvanized us to action to overcome a Soviet lead in the space race. Trump is doing the same on the AI race. China is too close. We must open up a decisive lead.


great analysis and points, dead on
boognish_bear
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Realitybites
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boognish_bear said:




That's pretty awesome....but for $880,000 it better come with the laser gun mounted on the front. Otherwise I'm out.
Oldbear83
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EatMoreSalmon said:

Assassin said:

The Navy Has 1 Big Advantage over China's New Aircraft Carriers

Japan's pilot training was superior to America's in the beginning of WWII. That advantage was wiped out inside of a year of war.
The allies won because they could produce much more and advance faster than the Axis. It was the experience of US factories in mass production.

True, but as someone likes to point out, things change over time.


It would be wiser to pay attention to other nations in the Pacific, as well as rising tensions from both demographic and cultural conflicts.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
whiterock
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EatMoreSalmon said:

Assassin said:

The Navy Has 1 Big Advantage over China's New Aircraft Carriers

Japan's pilot training was superior to America's in the beginning of WWII. That advantage was wiped out inside of a year of war.
The allies won because they could produce much more and advance faster than the Axis. It was the experience of US factories in mass production.

an advantage we no longer have over China, who outmatches us by 12x in steel production and 232x in shipbuilding.
whiterock
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Assassin said:

The Navy Has 1 Big Advantage over China's New Aircraft Carriers

in addition to that.....

All too often discussions/analysis of Chinese naval capability occur in the context of great power warfare - carrier battle groups duking it out in Mahan-esque climactic surface action. That's certainly the context of the article at link. And our capabilities certainly do outclass theirs by wide margin at this time. But that's not exactly what China is building for, ergo not exactly what we are likely to face.

China has three overriding foreign policy imperatives requiring military capability. 1) To protect their own lines of trade and supply, particularly oil tankers from the Middle East. Any aircraft carrier at all will give them tremendous capabilities to deter piracy, terrorism, rogue state interference, etc......along those routes. 2) To project power within their own region. Their carrier groups will equal or outclass regional rivals and US allies - India, Indonesia, Philippines, Australia, etc.... 3) To deny the US navy the ability to operate at all in the Western Pacific. They do not need any carriers to do that. They have an unsinkable aircraft carrier (the Chinese land mass) capable of projecting power (tens of thousands of missiles) over thousands of miles....most of the Pacific. That gives them, at least theoretically, the ability to prevent US naval operations in the western Pacitic from occurring at all......NOW.

If war breaks out, we are at risk of having to be more concerned with protecting capital ships (carriers) rather than deploying them for their intended use - to project power. If China is ablte to achieve that, it would more than any thing else they could do cause every US ally in the Pacific to become more "responsive" to Chinese concerns.

Sinking all three Chinese aircraft carriers is easy peasy. But they will still have thousands of hypersonic missiles covering most of the Pacific to pose mortal threats to US surface vessels. If we cannot sail a CBG to support the Philippines, we aren't of nearly as much value to the Philppines as a bulwark against Chinese power.

EatMoreSalmon
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whiterock said:

Assassin said:

The Navy Has 1 Big Advantage over China's New Aircraft Carriers

in addition to that.....

All too often discussions/analysis of Chinese naval capability occur in the context of great power warfare - carrier battle groups duking it out in Mahan-esque climactic surface action. That's certainly the context of the article at link. And our capabilities certainly do outclass theirs by wide margin at this time. But that's not exactly what China is building for, ergo not exactly what we are likely to face.

China has three overriding foreign policy imperatives requiring military capability. 1) To protect their own lines of trade and supply, particularly oil tankers from the Middle East. Any aircraft carrier at all will give them tremendous capabilities to deter piracy, terrorism, rogue state interference, etc......along those routes. 2) To project power within their own region. Their carrier groups will equal or outclass regional rivals and US allies - India, Indonesia, Philippines, Australia, etc.... 3) To deny the US navy the ability to operate at all in the Western Pacific. They do not need any carriers to do that. They have an unsinkable aircraft carrier (the Chinese land mass) capable of projecting power (tens of thousands of missiles) over thousands of miles....most of the Pacific. That gives them, at least theoretically, the ability to prevent US naval operations in the western Pacitic from occurring at all......NOW.

If war breaks out, we are at risk of having to be more concerned with protecting capital ships (carriers) rather than deploying them for their intended use - to project power. If China is ablte to achieve that, it would more than any thing else they could do cause every US ally in the Pacific to become more "responsive" to Chinese concerns.

Sinking all three Chinese aircraft carriers is easy peasy. But they will still have thousands of hypersonic missiles covering most of the Pacific to pose mortal threats to US surface vessels. If we cannot sail a CBG to support the Philippines, we aren't of nearly as much value to the Philppines as a bulwark against Chinese power.



The next war will not be like the last war in battle tactics. Something the French ignored between The Great War and World War II.
Oldbear83
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EatMoreSalmon said:

whiterock said:

Assassin said:

The Navy Has 1 Big Advantage over China's New Aircraft Carriers

in addition to that.....

All too often discussions/analysis of Chinese naval capability occur in the context of great power warfare - carrier battle groups duking it out in Mahan-esque climactic surface action. That's certainly the context of the article at link. And our capabilities certainly do outclass theirs by wide margin at this time. But that's not exactly what China is building for, ergo not exactly what we are likely to face.

China has three overriding foreign policy imperatives requiring military capability. 1) To protect their own lines of trade and supply, particularly oil tankers from the Middle East. Any aircraft carrier at all will give them tremendous capabilities to deter piracy, terrorism, rogue state interference, etc......along those routes. 2) To project power within their own region. Their carrier groups will equal or outclass regional rivals and US allies - India, Indonesia, Philippines, Australia, etc.... 3) To deny the US navy the ability to operate at all in the Western Pacific. They do not need any carriers to do that. They have an unsinkable aircraft carrier (the Chinese land mass) capable of projecting power (tens of thousands of missiles) over thousands of miles....most of the Pacific. That gives them, at least theoretically, the ability to prevent US naval operations in the western Pacitic from occurring at all......NOW.

If war breaks out, we are at risk of having to be more concerned with protecting capital ships (carriers) rather than deploying them for their intended use - to project power. If China is ablte to achieve that, it would more than any thing else they could do cause every US ally in the Pacific to become more "responsive" to Chinese concerns.

Sinking all three Chinese aircraft carriers is easy peasy. But they will still have thousands of hypersonic missiles covering most of the Pacific to pose mortal threats to US surface vessels. If we cannot sail a CBG to support the Philippines, we aren't of nearly as much value to the Philppines as a bulwark against Chinese power.



The next war will not be like the last war in battle tactics. Something the French ignored between The Great War and World War II.

Geography doesn't change, nor human nature. Study both if you want to be ready for the future.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
cowboycwr
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EatMoreSalmon said:

whiterock said:

Assassin said:

The Navy Has 1 Big Advantage over China's New Aircraft Carriers

in addition to that.....

All too often discussions/analysis of Chinese naval capability occur in the context of great power warfare - carrier battle groups duking it out in Mahan-esque climactic surface action. That's certainly the context of the article at link. And our capabilities certainly do outclass theirs by wide margin at this time. But that's not exactly what China is building for, ergo not exactly what we are likely to face.

China has three overriding foreign policy imperatives requiring military capability. 1) To protect their own lines of trade and supply, particularly oil tankers from the Middle East. Any aircraft carrier at all will give them tremendous capabilities to deter piracy, terrorism, rogue state interference, etc......along those routes. 2) To project power within their own region. Their carrier groups will equal or outclass regional rivals and US allies - India, Indonesia, Philippines, Australia, etc.... 3) To deny the US navy the ability to operate at all in the Western Pacific. They do not need any carriers to do that. They have an unsinkable aircraft carrier (the Chinese land mass) capable of projecting power (tens of thousands of missiles) over thousands of miles....most of the Pacific. That gives them, at least theoretically, the ability to prevent US naval operations in the western Pacitic from occurring at all......NOW.

If war breaks out, we are at risk of having to be more concerned with protecting capital ships (carriers) rather than deploying them for their intended use - to project power. If China is ablte to achieve that, it would more than any thing else they could do cause every US ally in the Pacific to become more "responsive" to Chinese concerns.

Sinking all three Chinese aircraft carriers is easy peasy. But they will still have thousands of hypersonic missiles covering most of the Pacific to pose mortal threats to US surface vessels. If we cannot sail a CBG to support the Philippines, we aren't of nearly as much value to the Philppines as a bulwark against Chinese power.



The next war will not be like the last war in battle tactics. Something the French ignored between The Great War and World War II.


Or the US in between WW2/ Korea and the Vietnam war.

WW2 and Korea are probably the only two modern wars (wars in the last 150 years or so) that were very similar just because there was not enough time between them for the technology to drastically change much.

Well except for maybe fighter jets but that wasn't enough to change how the whole war was fought.
boognish_bear
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