The future automation of the workforce

41,358 Views | 778 Replies | Last: 3 days ago by Donaharmahn
boognish_bear
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
7:03p, 10/19/25
Reply Quote
EatMoreSalmon
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to boognish_bear • 10:33p, 10/19/25
boognish_bear said:

Getting closer, but energy storage still needs drastic improvement and lower cost to make anything like that work. Solar farms would also make that desert even more barren. Just use available roofs, parking lot covers, and other already available and less intrusive places.
Reply Quote
BearFan33
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Assassin • 9:14a, 10/20/25
Assassin said:
Not AI but there isnt a thread for it and I don't want to start one!


That looks fun.

Harass the people on the boat with drone swarms while the flying marines land.
Reply Quote
1 edit
boognish_bear
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
11:09a, 10/20/25
Well...I sure as hell hope they get this one right

Reply Quote
Assassin
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to boognish_bear • 11:15a, 10/20/25
boognish_bear said:
Well...I sure as hell hope they get this one right


No kidding. All bomb making should be taken off the internet.
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans." - John Lennon
Reply Quote
1 edit
cowboycwr
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to BearFan33 • 9:04p, 10/20/25
BearFan33 said:
Assassin said:
Not AI but there isnt a thread for it and I don't want to start one!


That looks fun.

Harass the people on the boat with drone swarms while the flying marines land.


Still think it has a way to go to make it useful for infiltration. No space to carry anything other than a handgun and few clips/mags depending on specific gun. And it looks like it takes a long time to get out of, especially with not being able to just drop and go like a parachute or quick rope.
Reply Quote
whiterock
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Oldbear83 • 10:39p, 10/20/25
Oldbear83 said:
And where is all that water coming from?

I've got enough for one of them. Grey water will be a big factor, too. Some designs can use up to 80% grey water. River authorities are also reallocating some water originally retained for electrical generation, which is no longer being done. I've got some meetings soon to secure a portion of that.

Then, coincidentally, I've got a near capacity interceptor to deal with. Makes no sense to upsize it, since the main it dumps into is also nearly full. It may be possible to use one or more package plants to treat the flows and ship the grey water off to the data park. Will solve $20m+ problem for the city and supply possibly as much as a quarter of the data park needs. But the river authorities also have to approve package plants. Verbal feedback has been positive, but....."it's a process."

There are other cooling technologies, too. I've been briefed on one using a propylene glycol system, and another using an air system. All of them are going to need water, just some more than others. The water system I've been briefed on is going to need 2m gas PER DAY when fully underway.

The big spend is the pipe. Just shocking how expensive it is to lay. Ergo the package plants. The numbers seem to compel them, but outside of Harris County they are highly disfavored. There are some vested interests at play, public and private, but the primary concern is usually about private developers installing and running them. That's not what we're proposing, so seems like we've cleared the biggest hurdle.

until we build more lakes or prove out some of the apparent ground water resources in East Tx, grey water is going to become a very valuable commodity.

Reply Quote
boognish_bear
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
11:30a, 10/21/25
Reply Quote
BearFan33
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to cowboycwr • 11:49a, 10/21/25
cowboycwr said:
BearFan33 said:
Assassin said:
Not AI but there isnt a thread for it and I don't want to start one!


That looks fun.

Harass the people on the boat with drone swarms while the flying marines land.


Still think it has a way to go to make it useful for infiltration. No space to carry anything other than a handgun and few clips/mags depending on specific gun. And it looks like it takes a long time to get out of, especially with not being able to just drop and go like a parachute or quick rope.

I noticed that too. You are very vulnerable until you land. I'm sure it is very noisy too so you can't sneak up on anyone.


May have a role where helicopter isn't available.
Reply Quote
Assassin
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to BearFan33 • 5:59p, 10/21/25
BearFan33 said:
cowboycwr said:
BearFan33 said:
Assassin said:
Not AI but there isnt a thread for it and I don't want to start one!


That looks fun.

Harass the people on the boat with drone swarms while the flying marines land.


Still think it has a way to go to make it useful for infiltration. No space to carry anything other than a handgun and few clips/mags depending on specific gun. And it looks like it takes a long time to get out of, especially with not being able to just drop and go like a parachute or quick rope.

I noticed that too. You are very vulnerable until you land. I'm sure it is very noisy too so you can't sneak up on anyone.


May have a role where helicopter isn't available.

But it's cool as hell!
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans." - John Lennon
Reply Quote
FLBear5630
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to boognish_bear • 6:05p, 10/21/25
boognish_bear said:
Ai and robot use in the military brings up another ethical angle...it's when it feels like we started getting into Terminator territory.


There are numerous problems. As we discussed in a different thread, this is going to be an interesting balancing act with AI. How do you keep the Genie in the bottle and control it? Every analysis of AI and how great it is for productivity starts from the premise that they can control it and continue to do so.
Reply Quote
boognish_bear
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
12:07p, 10/22/25
Interesting thoughts. It's really difficult to picture a society without the need for work. Not sure what all unintended consequences would come from that.

Reply Quote
BearFan33
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to boognish_bear • 12:19p, 10/22/25
boognish_bear said:
Interesting thoughts. It's really difficult to picture a society without the need for work. Not sure what all unintended consequences would come from that.


WALL-E was an accurate prediction of what we will become
Reply Quote
boognish_bear
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to BearFan33 • 12:22p, 10/22/25
BearFan33 said:
boognish_bear said:
Interesting thoughts. It's really difficult to picture a society without the need for work. Not sure what all unintended consequences would come from that.


WALL-E was an accurate prediction of what we will become


In some ways it feels like we are already halfway there
Reply Quote
boognish_bear
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
12:23p, 10/22/25
I wish someone had told me about this no jobs thing before I spent all this money on my kids' college tuition...haha
Reply Quote
Assassin
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to boognish_bear • 12:24p, 10/22/25
boognish_bear said:
BearFan33 said:
boognish_bear said:
Interesting thoughts. It's really difficult to picture a society without the need for work. Not sure what all unintended consequences would come from that.


WALL-E was an accurate prediction of what we will become


In some ways it feels like we are already halfway there

You can tell what the future human will look like by looking at the Governor of Illinois...
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans." - John Lennon
Reply Quote
FLBear5630
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to boognish_bear • 5:59p, 10/22/25
boognish_bear said:
Interesting thoughts. It's really difficult to picture a society without the need for work. Not sure what all unintended consequences would come from that.




The first mistake is being more concerned with who gets it first rather than why do we think we can control it?
Reply Quote
cowboycwr
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to boognish_bear • 8:15p, 10/22/25
boognish_bear said:
Interesting thoughts. It's really difficult to picture a society without the need for work. Not sure what all unintended consequences would come from that.




For sci fi nerds…. So a society like Star Trek???

But in reality I don't see how that will happen. Take a house for example. Even if every material in the house is mined, farmed, etc. completely by robots/ai there is still the cost of the material and the company doing the manufacturing needing to make a profit to pay for robot upkeep or new ones. So the cost of a house could drop a ton if all the materials are now cheaper and the entire thing is built by robots so no workers to pay. But even cheap items like say toys or clothes will still have the need for the company to make a slight profit.

So prices may drop but I don't see how they could be low enough to get close to free.
Reply Quote
Assassin
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
8:19p, 10/22/25
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans." - John Lennon
Reply Quote
boognish_bear
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Assassin • 8:23p, 10/22/25
Assassin said:


I think about that opening scene all the time. Unfortunately that movie is slowly becoming more and more non-fiction than fiction.
Reply Quote
whiterock
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to FLBear5630 • 6:38a, 10/23/25
FLBear5630 said:
boognish_bear said:
Ai and robot use in the military brings up another ethical angle...it's when it feels like we started getting into Terminator territory.


There are numerous problems. As we discussed in a different thread, this is going to be an interesting balancing act with AI. How do you keep the Genie in the bottle and control it? Every analysis of AI and how great it is for productivity starts from the premise that they can control it and continue to do so.

Musk is overlooking a variety of issues in conflict with his statement to oversell a narrow point - that peer competitors with superior AI/drone tech could be a threat to wipe out our F-35s.

But not today. Probably not for a decade or three. At which time the F-35 will be aging out. Until that time, there is plenty of justification for the F-35. It outclasses everything TODAY. Which ain't exactly chopped liver. Only China is in contention with us to have a drone swarm capable to overwhelming 5th Generation fighters (at some point in the 10-20 year timeframe).

And then there are the tactical considerations. The drone swarm is new tech. New tech doesn't arrive mature on Day 1. Capabilities grow incrementally over time. US military is already configuring tactical uses for the F-35 in managing drone swarms, because drone tech and infrastructure requirements are nowhere near being ready for enormous autonomous drone swarms all over the planet capable of a wide range of missions. For years there will be "trucks" (air/land/sea) carrying drone swarms for use as stand alone weapons systems as well as being tactically integrated with current (and new) manned air/sea craft.

And.....the 6th gen fighter is in the later stages of development. Guaranteed that drone tech issues have long been a part of design/development.

Along the way, we ain't gonna give our new drone swarm tech away to anyone for a while. We're gonna upgrade to 6th generation fighters managing the largest and most capable drone swarms, while our allies fly the F-35 with more limited drone interoperability, and our adversaries fly things a half-generation or more behind us and our allies.

So, to Elon's point....yeah, but not for a good while yet. The F-35 is not the plane likely to be made obsolescent by drone tech. The 6th gen fighter is the more likely platform to fly off into the sunset
Reply Quote
Redbrickbear
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to boognish_bear • 7:34a, 10/23/25
boognish_bear said:
Assassin said:


I think about that opening scene all the time. Unfortunately that movie is slowly becoming more and more non-fiction than fiction.


If you wanna reverse the trend…all you have to do is get a high IQ group together and then organize them around fundamentalist religious beliefs….one of the core ones being extreme pro-Natalism and the problem can be solved.

Israel is an example of this. The Ashkenazi high IQ Jews who are secular are not really reproducing. But the Ultra orthodox Ashkenazi Jews are having 7-8 kids each.






Reply Quote
2 edits
FLBear5630
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to whiterock • 8:02a, 10/23/25
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
boognish_bear said:
Ai and robot use in the military brings up another ethical angle...it's when it feels like we started getting into Terminator territory.


There are numerous problems. As we discussed in a different thread, this is going to be an interesting balancing act with AI. How do you keep the Genie in the bottle and control it? Every analysis of AI and how great it is for productivity starts from the premise that they can control it and continue to do so.

Musk is overlooking a variety of issues in conflict with his statement to oversell a narrow point - that peer competitors with superior AI/drone tech could be a threat to wipe out our F-35s.

But not today. Probably not for a decade or three. At which time the F-35 will be aging out. Until that time, there is plenty of justification for the F-35. It outclasses everything TODAY. Which ain't exactly chopped liver. Only China is in contention with us to have a drone swarm capable to overwhelming 5th Generation fighters (at some point in the 10-20 year timeframe).

And then there are the tactical considerations. The drone swarm is new tech. New tech doesn't arrive mature on Day 1. Capabilities grow incrementally over time. US military is already configuring tactical uses for the F-35 in managing drone swarms, because drone tech and infrastructure requirements are nowhere near being ready for enormous autonomous drone swarms all over the planet capable of a wide range of missions. For years there will be "trucks" (air/land/sea) carrying drone swarms for use as stand alone weapons systems as well as being tactically integrated with current (and new) manned air/sea craft.

And.....the 6th gen fighter is in the later stages of development. Guaranteed that drone tech issues have long been a part of design/development.

Along the way, we ain't gonna give our new drone swarm tech away to anyone for a while. We're gonna upgrade to 6th generation fighters managing the largest and most capable drone swarms, while our allies fly the F-35 with more limited drone interoperability, and our adversaries fly things a half-generation or more behind us and our allies.

So, to Elon's point....yeah, but not for a good while yet. The F-35 is not the plane likely to be made obsolescent by drone tech. The 6th gen fighter is the more likely platform to fly off into the sunset

I agree with your analysis. My fear, and I only deal with the periphery of machine learning/AI for safety, is that we are underestimating the amount of time it will take for these systems to become operational. For example, ChatGP. In 2015 most Computer Scientist said ChatGP would take 30 to 50 years to get there. Seven years later it was launched. This is a quote from an MIT interview.

"You can't wait until your system is perfect to release it. We had been beta-testing the earlier versions for a few months, and the beta testers had positive impressions of the product. Our biggest concern was around factuality, because the model likes to fabricate things. But InstructGPT and other large language models are already out there, so we thought that as long as ChatGPT is better than those in terms of factuality and other issues of safety, it should be good to go. Before launch we confirmed that the models did seem a bit more factual and safe than other models, according to our limited evaluations, so we decided to go ahead with the release."

ChatGPT sets record for fastest-growing user base - analyst note | Reuters
UBS: ChatGPT is the Fastest Growing App of All Time

I read reviews of that book I posted. One review stuck with me. They said - "The situations leading to SuperAI problems and the proposed solutions are too bizarre for me to take seriously. But, I can't say that they are wrong."

That, to me, is the issue. Things are moving so fast and the computing power is so saturated in our society, are the parameters that we are using for decisions and evaluations relevant? Is it us versus China? Or is it a bigger issue? I don't know, but there are some scary questions out there and tech is leading us down a path. Is it good or bad? I think it is extreme Hubris to think any of us know.
Reply Quote
cowboycwr
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to whiterock • 12:37p, 10/23/25
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
boognish_bear said:
Ai and robot use in the military brings up another ethical angle...it's when it feels like we started getting into Terminator territory.


There are numerous problems. As we discussed in a different thread, this is going to be an interesting balancing act with AI. How do you keep the Genie in the bottle and control it? Every analysis of AI and how great it is for productivity starts from the premise that they can control it and continue to do so.

Musk is overlooking a variety of issues in conflict with his statement to oversell a narrow point - that peer competitors with superior AI/drone tech could be a threat to wipe out our F-35s.

But not today. Probably not for a decade or three. At which time the F-35 will be aging out. Until that time, there is plenty of justification for the F-35. It outclasses everything TODAY. Which ain't exactly chopped liver. Only China is in contention with us to have a drone swarm capable to overwhelming 5th Generation fighters (at some point in the 10-20 year timeframe).

And then there are the tactical considerations. The drone swarm is new tech. New tech doesn't arrive mature on Day 1. Capabilities grow incrementally over time. US military is already configuring tactical uses for the F-35 in managing drone swarms, because drone tech and infrastructure requirements are nowhere near being ready for enormous autonomous drone swarms all over the planet capable of a wide range of missions. For years there will be "trucks" (air/land/sea) carrying drone swarms for use as stand alone weapons systems as well as being tactically integrated with current (and new) manned air/sea craft.

And.....the 6th gen fighter is in the later stages of development. Guaranteed that drone tech issues have long been a part of design/development.

Along the way, we ain't gonna give our new drone swarm tech away to anyone for a while. We're gonna upgrade to 6th generation fighters managing the largest and most capable drone swarms, while our allies fly the F-35 with more limited drone interoperability, and our adversaries fly things a half-generation or more behind us and our allies.

So, to Elon's point....yeah, but not for a good while yet. The F-35 is not the plane likely to be made obsolescent by drone tech. The 6th gen fighter is the more likely platform to fly off into the sunset


Another point…. Does anyone have drones that would be able to go fast enough to catch any fighter ?

Or would the idea be to put them in the air in front of the jet hoping they fly into them?
Reply Quote
Assassin
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to cowboycwr • 12:48p, 10/23/25
cowboycwr said:
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
boognish_bear said:
Ai and robot use in the military brings up another ethical angle...it's when it feels like we started getting into Terminator territory.


There are numerous problems. As we discussed in a different thread, this is going to be an interesting balancing act with AI. How do you keep the Genie in the bottle and control it? Every analysis of AI and how great it is for productivity starts from the premise that they can control it and continue to do so.

Musk is overlooking a variety of issues in conflict with his statement to oversell a narrow point - that peer competitors with superior AI/drone tech could be a threat to wipe out our F-35s.

But not today. Probably not for a decade or three. At which time the F-35 will be aging out. Until that time, there is plenty of justification for the F-35. It outclasses everything TODAY. Which ain't exactly chopped liver. Only China is in contention with us to have a drone swarm capable to overwhelming 5th Generation fighters (at some point in the 10-20 year timeframe).

And then there are the tactical considerations. The drone swarm is new tech. New tech doesn't arrive mature on Day 1. Capabilities grow incrementally over time. US military is already configuring tactical uses for the F-35 in managing drone swarms, because drone tech and infrastructure requirements are nowhere near being ready for enormous autonomous drone swarms all over the planet capable of a wide range of missions. For years there will be "trucks" (air/land/sea) carrying drone swarms for use as stand alone weapons systems as well as being tactically integrated with current (and new) manned air/sea craft.

And.....the 6th gen fighter is in the later stages of development. Guaranteed that drone tech issues have long been a part of design/development.

Along the way, we ain't gonna give our new drone swarm tech away to anyone for a while. We're gonna upgrade to 6th generation fighters managing the largest and most capable drone swarms, while our allies fly the F-35 with more limited drone interoperability, and our adversaries fly things a half-generation or more behind us and our allies.

So, to Elon's point....yeah, but not for a good while yet. The F-35 is not the plane likely to be made obsolescent by drone tech. The 6th gen fighter is the more likely platform to fly off into the sunset


Another point…. Does anyone have drones that would be able to go fast enough to catch any fighter ?

Or would the idea be to put them in the air in front of the jet hoping they fly into them?

Ukrainian drones have successfully destroyed or damaged Russian jets, including in a large-scale attack in June 2025 that targeted airbases deep inside Russia. Ukraine's actions have involved both long-range drone attacks on airfields and the use of drones against specific aircraft in the Black Sea.

  • June 2025 "Spiderweb" attack:
    In an operation called "Spiderweb," Ukraine launched drones concealed in trucks that were transported into Russian territory.

    • The attack targeted multiple air bases, including Belaya and Olenya, and was designed to hit Russian Air Force assets.
    • Ukrainian officials reported that the operation destroyed numerous military aircraft, with some reports suggesting at least 13 to 41 aircraft were hit or destroyed, according to Wikipedia.
    • This operation was particularly notable because it involved drones being launched from deep within Russia, rather than from Ukraine's borders.
  • Strikes against specific aircraft:
    • In September 2025, Ukrainian drones struck Russia's rare Be-12 flying boats, reportedly destroying or damaging two of them, according to The War Zone.
  • Smaller-scale drone use:
    Ukrainian drones have also been used for attacks on Russian infrastructure, such as the Novokuibyshevsk oil refinery, and to destroy other military assets.

It doesnt say if they can fly fast enough to take on a Russian jet in the air though
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans." - John Lennon
Reply Quote
1 edit
cowboycwr
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Assassin • 1:04p, 10/23/25
Assassin said:
cowboycwr said:
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
boognish_bear said:
Ai and robot use in the military brings up another ethical angle...it's when it feels like we started getting into Terminator territory.


There are numerous problems. As we discussed in a different thread, this is going to be an interesting balancing act with AI. How do you keep the Genie in the bottle and control it? Every analysis of AI and how great it is for productivity starts from the premise that they can control it and continue to do so.

Musk is overlooking a variety of issues in conflict with his statement to oversell a narrow point - that peer competitors with superior AI/drone tech could be a threat to wipe out our F-35s.

But not today. Probably not for a decade or three. At which time the F-35 will be aging out. Until that time, there is plenty of justification for the F-35. It outclasses everything TODAY. Which ain't exactly chopped liver. Only China is in contention with us to have a drone swarm capable to overwhelming 5th Generation fighters (at some point in the 10-20 year timeframe).

And then there are the tactical considerations. The drone swarm is new tech. New tech doesn't arrive mature on Day 1. Capabilities grow incrementally over time. US military is already configuring tactical uses for the F-35 in managing drone swarms, because drone tech and infrastructure requirements are nowhere near being ready for enormous autonomous drone swarms all over the planet capable of a wide range of missions. For years there will be "trucks" (air/land/sea) carrying drone swarms for use as stand alone weapons systems as well as being tactically integrated with current (and new) manned air/sea craft.

And.....the 6th gen fighter is in the later stages of development. Guaranteed that drone tech issues have long been a part of design/development.

Along the way, we ain't gonna give our new drone swarm tech away to anyone for a while. We're gonna upgrade to 6th generation fighters managing the largest and most capable drone swarms, while our allies fly the F-35 with more limited drone interoperability, and our adversaries fly things a half-generation or more behind us and our allies.

So, to Elon's point....yeah, but not for a good while yet. The F-35 is not the plane likely to be made obsolescent by drone tech. The 6th gen fighter is the more likely platform to fly off into the sunset


Another point…. Does anyone have drones that would be able to go fast enough to catch any fighter ?

Or would the idea be to put them in the air in front of the jet hoping they fly into them?

Ukrainian drones have successfully destroyed or damaged Russian jets, including in a large-scale attack in June 2025 that targeted airbases deep inside Russia. Ukraine's actions have involved both long-range drone attacks on airfields and the use of drones against specific aircraft in the Black Sea.

  • June 2025 "Spiderweb" attack:
    In an operation called "Spiderweb," Ukraine launched drones concealed in trucks that were transported into Russian territory.

    • The attack targeted multiple air bases, including Belaya and Olenya, and was designed to hit Russian Air Force assets.
    • Ukrainian officials reported that the operation destroyed numerous military aircraft, with some reports suggesting at least 13 to 41 aircraft were hit or destroyed, according to Wikipedia.
    • This operation was particularly notable because it involved drones being launched from deep within Russia, rather than from Ukraine's borders.
  • Strikes against specific aircraft:
    • In September 2025, Ukrainian drones struck Russia's rare Be-12 flying boats, reportedly destroying or damaging two of them, according to The War Zone.
  • Smaller-scale drone use:
    Ukrainian drones have also been used for attacks on Russian infrastructure, such as the Novokuibyshevsk oil refinery, and to destroy other military assets.

It doesnt say if they can fly fast enough to take on a Russian jet in the air though


That sounds like they hit stationary targets. Except for maybe the flying boat but those are slow.
Reply Quote
BearFan33
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to cowboycwr • 1:13p, 10/23/25
cowboycwr said:
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
boognish_bear said:
Ai and robot use in the military brings up another ethical angle...it's when it feels like we started getting into Terminator territory.


There are numerous problems. As we discussed in a different thread, this is going to be an interesting balancing act with AI. How do you keep the Genie in the bottle and control it? Every analysis of AI and how great it is for productivity starts from the premise that they can control it and continue to do so.

Musk is overlooking a variety of issues in conflict with his statement to oversell a narrow point - that peer competitors with superior AI/drone tech could be a threat to wipe out our F-35s.

But not today. Probably not for a decade or three. At which time the F-35 will be aging out. Until that time, there is plenty of justification for the F-35. It outclasses everything TODAY. Which ain't exactly chopped liver. Only China is in contention with us to have a drone swarm capable to overwhelming 5th Generation fighters (at some point in the 10-20 year timeframe).

And then there are the tactical considerations. The drone swarm is new tech. New tech doesn't arrive mature on Day 1. Capabilities grow incrementally over time. US military is already configuring tactical uses for the F-35 in managing drone swarms, because drone tech and infrastructure requirements are nowhere near being ready for enormous autonomous drone swarms all over the planet capable of a wide range of missions. For years there will be "trucks" (air/land/sea) carrying drone swarms for use as stand alone weapons systems as well as being tactically integrated with current (and new) manned air/sea craft.

And.....the 6th gen fighter is in the later stages of development. Guaranteed that drone tech issues have long been a part of design/development.

Along the way, we ain't gonna give our new drone swarm tech away to anyone for a while. We're gonna upgrade to 6th generation fighters managing the largest and most capable drone swarms, while our allies fly the F-35 with more limited drone interoperability, and our adversaries fly things a half-generation or more behind us and our allies.

So, to Elon's point....yeah, but not for a good while yet. The F-35 is not the plane likely to be made obsolescent by drone tech. The 6th gen fighter is the more likely platform to fly off into the sunset


Another point…. Does anyone have drones that would be able to go fast enough to catch any fighter ?

Or would the idea be to put them in the air in front of the jet hoping they fly into them?

The small drones aren't going to catch a fighter but I'm sure there are unmanned fighters that have been or are being developed for that.

I think the use of drones is evolving....with Ukraine being the live testing grounds. Many are too small to show up on radar, so a fighter flying at mach speed hitting a drone could be devastating. I suppose a well placed wall of drones could be very effective.

On the ground drones are used offensively and defensively. I suspect, in the future you will have a defensive wall of drones moving with and protecting a tank on the ground. I read about million dollar tank losses to thousand dollar suicide drone attacks. I suspect the same may be true for the air.
Reply Quote
1 edit
Assassin
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to cowboycwr • 1:18p, 10/23/25
cowboycwr said:
Assassin said:
cowboycwr said:
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
boognish_bear said:
Ai and robot use in the military brings up another ethical angle...it's when it feels like we started getting into Terminator territory.


There are numerous problems. As we discussed in a different thread, this is going to be an interesting balancing act with AI. How do you keep the Genie in the bottle and control it? Every analysis of AI and how great it is for productivity starts from the premise that they can control it and continue to do so.

Musk is overlooking a variety of issues in conflict with his statement to oversell a narrow point - that peer competitors with superior AI/drone tech could be a threat to wipe out our F-35s.

But not today. Probably not for a decade or three. At which time the F-35 will be aging out. Until that time, there is plenty of justification for the F-35. It outclasses everything TODAY. Which ain't exactly chopped liver. Only China is in contention with us to have a drone swarm capable to overwhelming 5th Generation fighters (at some point in the 10-20 year timeframe).

And then there are the tactical considerations. The drone swarm is new tech. New tech doesn't arrive mature on Day 1. Capabilities grow incrementally over time. US military is already configuring tactical uses for the F-35 in managing drone swarms, because drone tech and infrastructure requirements are nowhere near being ready for enormous autonomous drone swarms all over the planet capable of a wide range of missions. For years there will be "trucks" (air/land/sea) carrying drone swarms for use as stand alone weapons systems as well as being tactically integrated with current (and new) manned air/sea craft.

And.....the 6th gen fighter is in the later stages of development. Guaranteed that drone tech issues have long been a part of design/development.

Along the way, we ain't gonna give our new drone swarm tech away to anyone for a while. We're gonna upgrade to 6th generation fighters managing the largest and most capable drone swarms, while our allies fly the F-35 with more limited drone interoperability, and our adversaries fly things a half-generation or more behind us and our allies.

So, to Elon's point....yeah, but not for a good while yet. The F-35 is not the plane likely to be made obsolescent by drone tech. The 6th gen fighter is the more likely platform to fly off into the sunset


Another point…. Does anyone have drones that would be able to go fast enough to catch any fighter ?

Or would the idea be to put them in the air in front of the jet hoping they fly into them?

Ukrainian drones have successfully destroyed or damaged Russian jets, including in a large-scale attack in June 2025 that targeted airbases deep inside Russia. Ukraine's actions have involved both long-range drone attacks on airfields and the use of drones against specific aircraft in the Black Sea.

  • June 2025 "Spiderweb" attack:
    In an operation called "Spiderweb," Ukraine launched drones concealed in trucks that were transported into Russian territory.

    • The attack targeted multiple air bases, including Belaya and Olenya, and was designed to hit Russian Air Force assets.
    • Ukrainian officials reported that the operation destroyed numerous military aircraft, with some reports suggesting at least 13 to 41 aircraft were hit or destroyed, according to Wikipedia.
    • This operation was particularly notable because it involved drones being launched from deep within Russia, rather than from Ukraine's borders.
  • Strikes against specific aircraft:
    • In September 2025, Ukrainian drones struck Russia's rare Be-12 flying boats, reportedly destroying or damaging two of them, according to The War Zone.
  • Smaller-scale drone use:
    Ukrainian drones have also been used for attacks on Russian infrastructure, such as the Novokuibyshevsk oil refinery, and to destroy other military assets.
It doesnt say if they can fly fast enough to take on a Russian jet in the air though


That sounds like they hit stationary targets. Except for maybe the flying boat but those are slow.

Exactly. However they are devastating to stationary or slow moving targets. The tech will get better when they move away from propellor drones
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans." - John Lennon
Reply Quote
boognish_bear
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
8:36p, 10/23/25
Do we really have to foot the bill for our future overlords?

Reply Quote
whiterock
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to cowboycwr • 6:38a, 10/24/25
cowboycwr said:
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
boognish_bear said:
Ai and robot use in the military brings up another ethical angle...it's when it feels like we started getting into Terminator territory.


There are numerous problems. As we discussed in a different thread, this is going to be an interesting balancing act with AI. How do you keep the Genie in the bottle and control it? Every analysis of AI and how great it is for productivity starts from the premise that they can control it and continue to do so.

Musk is overlooking a variety of issues in conflict with his statement to oversell a narrow point - that peer competitors with superior AI/drone tech could be a threat to wipe out our F-35s.

But not today. Probably not for a decade or three. At which time the F-35 will be aging out. Until that time, there is plenty of justification for the F-35. It outclasses everything TODAY. Which ain't exactly chopped liver. Only China is in contention with us to have a drone swarm capable to overwhelming 5th Generation fighters (at some point in the 10-20 year timeframe).

And then there are the tactical considerations. The drone swarm is new tech. New tech doesn't arrive mature on Day 1. Capabilities grow incrementally over time. US military is already configuring tactical uses for the F-35 in managing drone swarms, because drone tech and infrastructure requirements are nowhere near being ready for enormous autonomous drone swarms all over the planet capable of a wide range of missions. For years there will be "trucks" (air/land/sea) carrying drone swarms for use as stand alone weapons systems as well as being tactically integrated with current (and new) manned air/sea craft.

And.....the 6th gen fighter is in the later stages of development. Guaranteed that drone tech issues have long been a part of design/development.

Along the way, we ain't gonna give our new drone swarm tech away to anyone for a while. We're gonna upgrade to 6th generation fighters managing the largest and most capable drone swarms, while our allies fly the F-35 with more limited drone interoperability, and our adversaries fly things a half-generation or more behind us and our allies.

So, to Elon's point....yeah, but not for a good while yet. The F-35 is not the plane likely to be made obsolescent by drone tech. The 6th gen fighter is the more likely platform to fly off into the sunset


Another point…. Does anyone have drones that would be able to go fast enough to catch any fighter ?

Or would the idea be to put them in the air in front of the jet hoping they fly into them?

your questions illustrate that drones are not immune to the same laws of physics that shape conventional aircraft design for different kinds of flight operations. We can design a bomber that'll carry MOABs and MOPBs, but it will not be able to do anything remotely approaching what an F-22 can do. (the converse being true as well). So, sure.....we can fill the air with clouds of cheap drones, but what do we want to them to do? If we make them small to gain weight of numbers, then they won't be able to fly far or carry much ordnance. Yes, we can give them bigger engines to give them more payload and range, but they'll get a lot bigger. The bigger they are, the less nimble they'll be and the more expensive they'll be. The more expensive they are, the less dense the drone cloud will be. and so on and so on. Bomber drones vs fighter drones. etc..... Communications capability is tied up in all that, too. The smaller they are, the less radio they'll be able to carry. Signal strength wanes over distance. So at some point the small drones will have to depend on integral coordinates or AI abilities, which of course will limit tactical options.

Look back to that Ukrainian drone operation earlier this year. They used a swarm of very small drones to make an audacious attack infrastructure deep inside Russian territory. But the drones did not have the distance to make the trip to target if launched from Ukraine. So they loaded up a swarm into a shipping container, loaded that container up onto an 18-wheeler, smuggled the whole rig into Russian territory and drove hundreds of miles to get the drones in range of the target. Brilliant. Ballsy. But the necessity for such was driven by the tradeoffs described above. They had to deal with the laws of physics regarding the competing imperatives for range/speed/payload.

So we might see swarms of very small drones carrying depleted uranium pellets being used to attack aircraft....being sucked into the engines to damage/destroy them. But those swarms will have to be used in a defensive role over very important assets (because they do not have the fuel or speed to travel great distances). A drone that can fly 1000mi to spot & shoot a side-winder equivalent missile into an F-35 is probably going to look something closer to an F-35. Sure, such might be quite a bit cheaper than an F-35, but we are not going to be able to build thousands of swarms of tens of thousands of them....
Reply Quote
boognish_bear
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
11:09a, 10/24/25
That all sounds good until they start shooting lasers at us… Ha ha

Reply Quote
Oldbear83
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to boognish_bear • 1:08p, 10/24/25
boognish_bear said:
That all sounds good until they start shooting lasers at us… Ha ha


I wonder why we never hear the details on how this is going to work.

Right now, investors own the machines that automate manufacturing and they own the AI that is starting to winnow headcount in data roles. The rewards for automation are therefore going to company owners and AI companies. There is no evidence that is going to change anytime soon.

So what happens is at some point we will do one of three things:

I) We create a bunch of new jobs that can go to the people canned from their former jobs, or we will face a serious employment crisis. That is, we are headed to a place where maybe 35% of the population has zero workdays a week for zero income excepting unemployment, with another 15-20% underemployed by working for less pay in whatever jobs they can get and keep. GDP will continue to grow for a time because corporate profits will be healthy, but it will cast a false image for the nation as a whole;

II) Some idiot in Congress, most likely with a (D) by their name, decides to tax the crap out of any company using AI and reducing headcount. This gets popular and becomes law, and companies scale back their AI development and employees feel better protected by Congress. Problem is, other countries continue their AI development and eat up the majority of market share as the US gets left behind in product price and quality;

III) Someone leading an AI company sees what's coming and works out an agreement to develop AI while also protecting jobs, maintaining headcount while developing AI tech, using gains to deliver moderate profit growth while also cutting prices so as to gain market share and deliver real value to the average American.

The problem I have when I hear these promises from Gates and Musk, is that the evidence of their track record does not show price cutting or profit-sharing with the nation in general, so I cannot consider these men the leaders who will actually be AI's version of Henry Ford.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
Reply Quote
Assassin
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to boognish_bear • 1:16p, 10/24/25
boognish_bear said:
That all sounds good until they start shooting lasers at us… Ha ha


Knowing Bill, one of those days would be a Sunday as he is agnostic
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans." - John Lennon
Reply Quote
cowboycwr
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Oldbear83 • 4:43p, 10/24/25
Oldbear83 said:
boognish_bear said:
That all sounds good until they start shooting lasers at us… Ha ha


I wonder why we never hear the details on how this is going to work.

Right now, investors own the machines that automate manufacturing and they own the AI that is starting to winnow headcount in data roles. The rewards for automation are therefore going to company owners and AI companies. There is no evidence that is going to change anytime soon.

So what happens is at some point we will do one of three things:

I) We create a bunch of new jobs that can go to the people canned from their former jobs, or we will face a serious employment crisis. That is, we are headed to a place where maybe 35% of the population has zero workdays a week for zero income excepting unemployment, with another 15-20% underemployed by working for less pay in whatever jobs they can get and keep. GDP will continue to grow for a time because corporate profits will be healthy, but it will cast a false image for the nation as a whole;

II) Some idiot in Congress, most likely with a (D) by their name, decides to tax the crap out of any company using AI and reducing headcount. This gets popular and becomes law, and companies scale back their AI development and employees feel better protected by Congress. Problem is, other countries continue their AI development and eat up the majority of market share as the US gets left behind in product price and quality;

III) Someone leading an AI company sees what's coming and works out an agreement to develop AI while also protecting jobs, maintaining headcount while developing AI tech, using gains to deliver moderate profit growth while also cutting prices so as to gain market share and deliver real value to the average American.

The problem I have when I hear these promises from Gates and Musk, is that the evidence of their track record does not show price cutting or profit-sharing with the nation in general, so I cannot consider these men the leaders who will actually be AI's version of Henry Ford.


You forgot a fourth option.

Universal income. That is the only way people could work fewer days or not at all and survive.
Reply Quote
Oldbear83
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to cowboycwr • 6:42p, 10/24/25
cowboycwr said:
Oldbear83 said:
boognish_bear said:
That all sounds good until they start shooting lasers at us… Ha ha


I wonder why we never hear the details on how this is going to work.

Right now, investors own the machines that automate manufacturing and they own the AI that is starting to winnow headcount in data roles. The rewards for automation are therefore going to company owners and AI companies. There is no evidence that is going to change anytime soon.

So what happens is at some point we will do one of three things:

I) We create a bunch of new jobs that can go to the people canned from their former jobs, or we will face a serious employment crisis. That is, we are headed to a place where maybe 35% of the population has zero workdays a week for zero income excepting unemployment, with another 15-20% underemployed by working for less pay in whatever jobs they can get and keep. GDP will continue to grow for a time because corporate profits will be healthy, but it will cast a false image for the nation as a whole;

II) Some idiot in Congress, most likely with a (D) by their name, decides to tax the crap out of any company using AI and reducing headcount. This gets popular and becomes law, and companies scale back their AI development and employees feel better protected by Congress. Problem is, other countries continue their AI development and eat up the majority of market share as the US gets left behind in product price and quality;

III) Someone leading an AI company sees what's coming and works out an agreement to develop AI while also protecting jobs, maintaining headcount while developing AI tech, using gains to deliver moderate profit growth while also cutting prices so as to gain market share and deliver real value to the average American.

The problem I have when I hear these promises from Gates and Musk, is that the evidence of their track record does not show price cutting or profit-sharing with the nation in general, so I cannot consider these men the leaders who will actually be AI's version of Henry Ford.


You forgot a fourth option.

Universal income. That is the only way people could work fewer days or not at all and survive.

That's an obscenely bad idea.

Think it through, starting with who would control that program.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
Reply Quote
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.