Tuesday AM Update
"
Further ominous developments today. For the first time, Iran successfully targeted oil and gas production facilities, rather than refining, terminals, and storage," Bloomberg Opinion and commodities columnist Javier Blas wrote on X.
Blas listed the IRGC's attacks on Gulf oil and gas facilities:
- Oil and gas field in the UAE (Shah) hit
- Oil field in Iraq (Majnoon) attacked
- Plus Saudi Arabia saw large drone swarms
He explained that these attacks suggest "
Iran has started a new phase of its oil war" against Gulf states aligned with the US.
Last week, we
highlighted JPMorgan's head of commodity research, Natasha Kaneva, who warned that policy measures will have, at best, a limited impact on oil prices unless safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz is assured, given the potential for up to 12 mbd in losses over the next two weeks.
Kaneva noted that Strait traffic is likely to become "increasingly conditional," with Iran permitting passage for some vessels depending on their affiliation.
"The biggest risk in the market is the Strait of Hormuz remaining constrained for a longer stretch and the market feeling the US and its allies have a limited capacity to alter the dynamic," Pepperstone Group analyst Chris Weston said.
Trump's move to reopen the Hormuz chokepoint with a naval coalition largely fell flat at the start of the week. Allied countries, including Australia, Germany, and Japan, said they weren't planning to send their warships through the critical waterway to shadow commercial tanker traffic.
In the US, the effects of an energy shock from the Middle East,
according to new AAA data, show regular gas at the pump has jumped the most for any single month on record, up 25% so far in March.