Osodecentx said:Adriacus Peratuun said:boognish_bear said:
I just cannot picture Talarico winning in Texas...but Paxton needs to be taking the campaign seriously.TEXAS POLL By TSU
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 4, 2026
🟦 Senate - Talarico +2
🟥 Governor - Abbott +6
🟥 Lt. Governor - Patrick +7
🟥 Attorney General - Middleton +5
🟥 Comptroller - Huffines +7
🟥 Land Commisioner - Buckingham +5
🟥 Railroad Commissioner - French +3
7/27-30 | 1,200 LV | R50/D41… https://t.co/vTeN9uzOHv pic.twitter.com/XPx8sABFfw
Using 2022 (last Texas non-Presidential election) as a Go By and plugging in each result of that poll, Paxton wins easily.
2022:
every statewide race except Paxton won by 10.3% or greater.
Paxton won by 9.7%.
If Paxton trails other republicans candidates by 7-8% (per those polls) he still wins by 3%.
TSU……not exactly representative of Texas……TSU is insane if it thinks the entire R statewide candidate pool is within 7% in a non-Presidential election after the massive voter registration push by Rs.
Don't think that item matters? Look at 2024 results comped to 2020 and 2016.
2016: Trump by 808K
2020: Trump by 621K
2024: Trump by 1,569K
Raw numbers:
2016: R 4,685K D 3,877K
2020: R 5,890K D 5,259K
2024: R 6,375K D 4,806K
2022:
High statewide water mark for D = 3,554
Low statewide water mark for R = 4,274 (Paxton)
Gap of 720K
Anyone predicting a 11%+ swing in results to D (only one election later) in Texas is certifiably insane.
The situation is 2024 Iowa poll on repeat. The other statewide race poll figures confirm that point.
I understand.
If Baylor basketball beats Arizona by 5 points and Arizona beats Houston by 3 points, Baylor would beat Houston by 8 points.
1) tell everyone you are Democrat and analytics challenged without using the exact terms.
2) shake your fist at that cloud and stomp your feet a little harder.