I'm not sure if there are any good reasons for thinking Talarico can win. The polls are often flawed, very subjective, and wrong. It happens every election cycle: the polls over estimate Dem support. Harry Enten on CNN had a segment on this 1-2 weeks ago: if the GOP performs the way they usually do relative to the polls then they will win several key senate races.
My conclusions about Talarico and the Texas race are strictly an opinion based on the obvious realities of Texas and Texas voters. On top of that large numbers of blacks and Hispanics, groups that historically have voted Dem in large numbers, are very unlikely to vote for him. His radical ideas, his transparent lies, and his creepiness will continue to turn them off. Most will either vote for Paxton or stay home.
All the Left has is their propaganda and flawed polls. Both are unreliable.
The only possible way he can win is if large numbers of GOP voters stay home. That seems unlikely too.
“Incline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36