What stage of capitalism is “Johnny Manziel touting parlays involving college football and Ken Paxton”? https://t.co/VdiMijqG8K

— Dustin Gouker (@DustinGouker) October 30, 2026

My final model is finished based off polling & early voting data, I have two scenarios. So it's a "choice your own adventure" on the model:

Scenario A: You believe the polls are accurate:

Texas Senate
Talarico (D) 49.8%
Paxton (R) 47.5%
Ted Brown (L) 2.7%

Texas Governor…

— Justin (@JustinVos) October 31, 2026

My final model is finished based off polling & early voting data, I have two scenarios. So it's a "choice your own adventure" on the model:

Scenario A: You believe the polls are accurate:

Texas Senate
Talarico (D) 49.8%
Paxton (R) 47.5%
Ted Brown (L) 2.7%

Texas Governor
Hinojosa (D) 47.7%
Abbott (R) 50.4%
Pat Dixon (L) 1.8%

Scenario B: You believe the polls will be wrong by the same margins they were the last four cycles (~3.9%):

Texas Senate
Talarico (D) 47.6%
Paxton (R) 49.7%
Ted Brown (L) 2.7%

Texas Governor
Hinojosa (D) 45.2%
Abbott (R) 52.9%
Pat Dixon (L) 1.8%

This is basically them leaking to the NYT they aren’t winning this race lmao https://t.co/jfSC7DIUVG

— Zach (@_znk11) October 31, 2026

Tala-freako visits Temple Bus-ee's:

Make-Believe It to Beaver: Dem James Talarico Visits Texas Buc-ee's to Awkwardly Mingle With Voters

https://twitchy.com/warren-squire/2026/10/31/james-talarico-visits-buc-ees-in-texas-n2433965

It seems everything Low-T Jimmy does is so cringe it's memorable.

historian said:

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Tala-freako visits Temple Bus-ee's:

Make-Believe It to Beaver: Dem James Talarico Visits Texas Buc-ee's to Awkwardly Mingle With Voters

https://twitchy.com/warren-squire/2026/10/31/james-talarico-visits-buc-ees-in-texas-n2433965

It seems everything Low-T Jimmy does is so cringe it's memorable.

---

And this! Strange blokes you've hitched your wagons to boys!

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/jd-vance-trump-husted-ass-jealous_n_6ae49affe4b038f4fbdf0b52/amp

LMAO being gay is cool af for the lunatic left until Trump says something

Also, abiding by your lunatic rules, you are being homophobic

All that liberalism is killing your brain cells

Couldn't care less one way or the other. And I'm a 50 year conservative who literally cried when Reagan died. Say it with me, you'll feel better:

"It's alarming when a veep complains because his president isn't complimenting his *ss".

"It's alarming when a president talks about having the hots for his sisters"

Couldn't care less? Why aren't you making fun of TALAFREAKO with him?

He is a liberal clown that all of a sudden "moderated" LOL

How does your post have anything to do with the election between Talarico and Paxton?

TenBears said:

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Couldn't care less one way or the other. And I'm a 50 year conservative who literally cried when Reagan died. Say it with me, you'll feel better:

"It's alarming when a veep complains because his president isn't complimenting his *ss".

"It's alarming when a president talks about having the hots for his sisters"

---

Honestly this is like your tenth post on it. Seems like you are thinking about this an awful lot. Perhaps some projection??

Another resident liberal who was once a "conservative"

We have a bunch of those

TenBears said:

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Trying to go one "Trump sister" post for every Talarico is effiminate or doesn't eat meat post. Your right though, gotta switch gears. Let's go with "Trump is sundowning" for a week or two.

---

You might want to post your Trump stuff on a thread which is actually about Trump. Check the thread title dude, you're not anywhere near your lane.

The Huffington & Puffington Post (Rush's appropriate label) is a Leftist propaganda rag that cannot be trusted on anything.

Good point. The label is not about biological reality. It's about ideas and behaviors. Talarico is not very masculine at all and every Dem effort to present him as a typical Texan backfires horribly because it's so obviously fake.

Yeah but being a liberal negates anything and everything. Yo should know that, Aliceinliberalland

I don't know about Denton… But I don't see him flipping Colin County

Looking at the map, it's possible Talarico could prevail while winning even fewer Texas counties than the 32 Beto O'Rourke carried in 2018.

But the two counties Talarico almost certainly needs to flip that O'Rourke didn't: Collin and Denton. pic.twitter.com/8KJnoJHZ9l

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 1, 2026

Democrat primary voters OUT-VOTED Republican primary voters in Texas early voting.

Early voting is over. 7.7 MILLION Texans voted, near-presidential turnout. In 2022, Republican primary voters finished early voting 565,133 ballots AHEAD of Democrat primary voters. In 2024, we… pic.twitter.com/UkXBRFHTU5

— Comptroller Don Huffines (@DonHuffines) November 1, 2026

Democrat primary voters OUT-VOTED Republican primary voters in Texas early voting.

Early voting is over. 7.7 MILLION Texans voted, near-presidential turnout. In 2022, Republican primary voters finished early voting 565,133 ballots AHEAD of Democrat primary voters. In 2024, we finished 944,796 ahead. This year we head into Election Day 25,836 BEHIND. This is hard voter file data from @longhornderek, the best in the business. No polling. No modeling. Just facts.

Santa Anna thought the war was won at the Alamo. Then came San Jacinto. Texas is never decided by how the fight starts. It is decided by how we finish.

Here is what is left: 2.7 MILLION of the most likely voters in Texas have NOT cast a ballot. 886,000 of them are Republican primary voters. The communists have 596,000. That is a 289,717 vote advantage sitting on the sidelines, but it wins NOTHING unless those Republicans show up. The other 1.2 MILLION likely voters have no primary history at all. This election belongs to whoever shows up Tuesday.

Texas is the foundation of the Republican Party in America. When the foundation breaks, it ALL falls apart. When we lose Texas, we lose the USA.

GO VOTE to defend our liberty on Election Day, TUESDAY, Nov. 3. RAIN OR SHINE.

boognish_bear said:

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Democrat primary voters OUT-VOTED Republican primary voters in Texas early voting.

Early voting is over. 7.7 MILLION Texans voted, near-presidential turnout. In 2022, Republican primary voters finished early voting 565,133 ballots AHEAD of Democrat primary voters. In 2024, we… pic.twitter.com/UkXBRFHTU5

— Comptroller Don Huffines (@DonHuffines) November 1, 2026

Democrat primary voters OUT-VOTED Republican primary voters in Texas early voting.

Early voting is over. 7.7 MILLION Texans voted, near-presidential turnout. In 2022, Republican primary voters finished early voting 565,133 ballots AHEAD of Democrat primary voters. In 2024, we finished 944,796 ahead. This year we head into Election Day 25,836 BEHIND. This is hard voter file data from @longhornderek, the best in the business. No polling. No modeling. Just facts.

Santa Anna thought the war was won at the Alamo. Then came San Jacinto. Texas is never decided by how the fight starts. It is decided by how we finish.

Here is what is left: 2.7 MILLION of the most likely voters in Texas have NOT cast a ballot. 886,000 of them are Republican primary voters. The communists have 596,000. That is a 289,717 vote advantage sitting on the sidelines, but it wins NOTHING unless those Republicans show up. The other 1.2 MILLION likely voters have no primary history at all. This election belongs to whoever shows up Tuesday.

Texas is the foundation of the Republican Party in America. When the foundation breaks, it ALL falls apart. When we lose Texas, we lose the USA.

GO VOTE to defend our liberty on Election Day, TUESDAY, Nov. 3. RAIN OR SHINE.

---

Wow ... I had heard that GOP primary voters had edged democrat primary voters out in the early voting and mail-ins by about 1%... which was still bad... if this post is true democrats arent just flipping the senate seat, they are taking the whole state.

The_barBEARian said:

---

boognish_bear said:

---

Democrat primary voters OUT-VOTED Republican primary voters in Texas early voting.

Early voting is over. 7.7 MILLION Texans voted, near-presidential turnout. In 2022, Republican primary voters finished early voting 565,133 ballots AHEAD of Democrat primary voters. In 2024, we… pic.twitter.com/UkXBRFHTU5

— Comptroller Don Huffines (@DonHuffines) November 1, 2026

Democrat primary voters OUT-VOTED Republican primary voters in Texas early voting.

Early voting is over. 7.7 MILLION Texans voted, near-presidential turnout. In 2022, Republican primary voters finished early voting 565,133 ballots AHEAD of Democrat primary voters. In 2024, we finished 944,796 ahead. This year we head into Election Day 25,836 BEHIND. This is hard voter file data from @longhornderek, the best in the business. No polling. No modeling. Just facts.

Santa Anna thought the war was won at the Alamo. Then came San Jacinto. Texas is never decided by how the fight starts. It is decided by how we finish.

Here is what is left: 2.7 MILLION of the most likely voters in Texas have NOT cast a ballot. 886,000 of them are Republican primary voters. The communists have 596,000. That is a 289,717 vote advantage sitting on the sidelines, but it wins NOTHING unless those Republicans show up. The other 1.2 MILLION likely voters have no primary history at all. This election belongs to whoever shows up Tuesday.

Texas is the foundation of the Republican Party in America. When the foundation breaks, it ALL falls apart. When we lose Texas, we lose the USA.

GO VOTE to defend our liberty on Election Day, TUESDAY, Nov. 3. RAIN OR SHINE.

---

Wow ... I had heard that GOP primary voters had edged democrat primary voters out in the early voting and mail-ins by about 1%... which was still bad... if this post is true democrats arent just flipping the senate seat, they are taking the whole state.

---

It's hard to know what is legit and what might be scare tactics to try and motivate unmotivated voters.

Gov. Abbott is using vague privacy protections to hide Elon Musk emails | Opinion https://t.co/A1LV4HluGI

— Dallas Morning News (@dallasnews) November 1, 2026

When you cut through the noise, it's a close race and turnout Tuesday will make the difference one way or another.

Oldbear83 said:

---

When you cut through the noise, it's a close race and turnout Tuesday will make the difference one way or another.

---

Bingo.

Ken Paxton: The criticism has been that I let a child predator out after 1 day. Well guess what? They served 60 days. pic.twitter.com/QpWer6LumZ

— Headquarters (@HQNewsNow) November 2, 2026

If Atlas nails 2026 after nailing 2024 they will officially become the gold standard pollster in American politics.

They were freakishly accurate in almost every President state contest (talking within 1 point in almost every state).

In TX they pegged Cruz at +7 (he won by… https://t.co/fMAlQgPJFC

— (Marcus) (@MarcusHUSA) November 2, 2026

Sorry J.R., I only speak adult, so you would not understand.

boognish_bear said:

---

If Atlas nails 2026 after nailing 2024 they will officially become the gold standard pollster in American politics.

They were freakishly accurate in almost every President state contest (talking within 1 point in almost every state).

In TX they pegged Cruz at +7 (he won by… https://t.co/fMAlQgPJFC

— (Marcus) (@MarcusHUSA) November 2, 2026

---

Just took a look at the Atlas Intel poll, which is by the way an outlier except for the NYT/Siena poll (that one admitted that Democrats were 30% more likely to respond than Republicans).

The Atlas Intel poll, starting with its methodology, abandoned traditional RDD searches and instead polled people online "on any device (smartphones, tablets, laptops or PCs"

USA: Texas | AtlasIntel


Atlas also admitted to manipulation of the responses, in building their sample, saying " biases arising from variable non-response rates can be adequately addressed during the process of building each sample".

Atlas also noted that " the AtlasIntel samples are post-stratified using an iterative algorithm on a minimum set of target variables" which are based on a " profile of the US adult population" rather than on actual election demographics.

In Texas, the constructed demographics for Atlas Intel were 52.0% women to 46.1% men (versus actual 51.9 to 48.1 ratio in the 2022 and 2018 midterms, undervaluing male voters).

The age demographics used by AtlasIntel were 14.3% 18-29 (12% in actual elections), 24.0% 30-44 (27.0% in actual elections), 37.9% 45-64 (33.5% in actual elections) and 23.8% over 65 (27.5% in actual elections). This slightly lowers the age demographics from the last two midterms.

The race demographics used by AtlasIntel were 52.5% White (60.2% in 2018 and 2022 midterms), 30.5% Hispanic (27.5% in 2018 and 2022 midterms) and 8.6% Black (12.2% in 2018 and 2022 midterms)

The AtlasIntel poll released no details of their political party or ideology.

And remember, these demographic weightings are artificial constructions using an algorithm, not in any way built from actual respondent breakdowns.

The crosstabs were interesting. Women support Talarico 60.1-36.0, as do under 44 (57.9-42.1 under 29, 58.0-35.9 up to 44 year olds), urban voters support Talarico 61.1-36.3, Blacks support Talarico 84.3-15.7 and the poll says Hispanics prefer Talarico 57.5-41.0.

Men support Paxton 56.4-41.4, over 65 prefer Paxton 56.0-43.3, non-college voters support Paxton slightly 48.6-46.9, Rural voters support Paxton 61.1-32.1, and Whites support Paxton 52.5-43.1.

All in all, the crosstabs are similar to what other polls are showing, making the demographic weighting the primary driver in how they reached their totals.