Predicting the Big 12 Season: The Revivalry is Must Watch TV in 2025

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Welcome back! It’s time to project the Big 12 season for every team once again. Over the next couple of weeks, I will go through the entirety of the upcoming season for each team in the Big 12, pick the conference champion and make bowl projections.

Obviously, there is still a lot that can change, but barring significant injuries for any of the teams, we are in a good spot for some predictions. With that said, let's do this!

• Week 1: Baylor 24, Auburn 21 
• Week 2: Baylor 44, SMU 30
• Week 3: Baylor 55, Samford 9
• Week 4: Arizona State 34, Baylor 31
• Week 5: Baylor 37, Oklahoma State 20
• Week 6: Baylor 36, Kansas State 27
• Week 7: BYE WEEK

Baylor vs. TCU, Saturday, October 18, Amon G. Carter Stadium

The Revivalry has been pretty one-sided over the last decade as TCU holds the edge, 8-2, in the last 10 matchups and is 4-1 in Fort Worth during that time span. It really hasn’t mattered if Baylor had a great team either, as the Frogs even got Baylor in 2021 when the Bears won the Big 12 Championship. That loss kept Baylor out of the College Football Playoff. The average margin of victory for the Frogs during this stretch has been 10.6 points during these past 10 meetings, with six of the matchups being one-score games.

Last year, Baylor had 19 total quarterback pressures but only came away with one sack. Even with all that pressure, TCU quarterback Josh Hoover finished with 333 yards and two touchdowns with zero turnovers. The Frogs were 4-for-12 on third down and 2-for-2 on fourth down. They were extremely efficient and methodical, even while being one-dimensional, as they ran for just 3.3 yards per carry. My point is that, despite being one-dimensional, the Frogs still managed to score 34 points, and there were few signs that Baylor had figured anything out. The one X-Factor here for Baylor’s secondary chances is the hiring of cornerbacks coach Paul Gonzales from TCU this offseason. He knows what Sonny Dykes wants to do on offense, so there is some thought here that he may be the difference.

The Baylor offense was incredible in the game as well, with much more balance, as the Bears had 242 yards through the air and 257 yards on the ground. That balance allowed Baylor to win this game a season ago. Are they going to be able to repeat that kind of efficiency on the road? I am skeptical due to the road environment and the signs that TCU’s defense could be improved.

TCU has Baylor’s number, and it has taken absolute classics for the Bears to even have two wins during the past decade. There is just something about this matchup that hasn’t gone well, and this year, I see some of the same problems. TCU’s elite passing game versus the Bears' secondary, an improved Frogs defense and home-field advantage make me believe this will be a narrow loss for the Bears.

• Prediction: Baylor 32, TCU 38

Rest of the Big 12 Slate

Saturday, October 18

• Texas Tech 27 at Arizona State 35
• Utah 10 at BYU 27
• Arizona 23 at Houston 31
• Cincinnati 33 at Oklahoma State 38
• West Virginia 41 at UCF 37

Big 12 Standings

• T1. Utah – 6-1 (3-1)
• T1. Kansas State — 6-1 (3-1)
• T1. Arizona State – 6-1 (3-1)
• T1. BYU — 6-1 (3-1)
• T5. Baylor — 5-2 (2-2)
• T5. Texas Tech — 5-2 (2-2)
• T5. TCU — 5-2 (2-2)
• T5. Houston — 5-2 (2-2)
• T5. Cincinnati — 4-3 (2-2)
• T5. Kansas — 4-3 (2-2) 
• T5. Iowa State — 4-3 (2-2)
• T5. Colorado – 4-3 (2-2)
• T5. Oklahoma State — 4-3 (2-2)
• T14. Arizona – 3-4 (1-3)
• T14. West Virginia — 2-5 (1-3)
• 16. UCF — 2-5 (0-4)