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Oregon plan B Austin Novosad

36,339 Views | 348 Replies | Last: 4 mo ago by boognish_bear
gobears20
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gobears20
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Wolf 359
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gobears20 said:


So, is Bo Nix's returning Oregon's Plan A?
PartyBear
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They had a last minute flip of some highly ranked QB to UCLA right after UCLA officially went to the B10.
Hob Howelll
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Like I said in the other thread, if I am Aranda, I am letting Shawn Bell know that his job depends on getting Novosad to sign on the dotted line. Can't hold on to high school quarterbacks, can't hold on to the guys on our team, can't land any game changers in the transfer portal. Quarterback coach the common denominator in all of those
blackie
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The Hound said:

Like I said in the other thread, if I am Aranda, I am letting Shawn Bell know that his job depends on getting Novosad to sign on the dotted line. Can't hold on to high school quarterbacks, can't hold on to the guys on our team, can't land any game changers in the transfer portal. Quarterback coach the common denominator in all of those
To be fair, I'm not sure any QB coach out there can have all three (bolded above) at the same time. At least one, if not two of the three are not going to be happy and will be looking for greener pastures. I think the best we can do is to see how things shake out on Wednesday and then react to that. I suspect that will be going on in many campuses across the country. Portal and NIL has nuked any sense of normalcy upon which we used to be able to rely on.
Golden Helmet
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We're all very thankful you're not Aranda.

Golden Helmet
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According to this line of brilliant thinking….Mack must be thinking the same thing about our head coach.

Wonder if we can get Jim Grobe back for 2023?
wongobear
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Nah, he won't flip to Oregon. The girls there have been "too hot" for years now

University of Oregon cheerleaders are being called 'too hot' by some - YouTube
bear2be2
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The Hound said:

Like I said in the other thread, if I am Aranda, I am letting Shawn Bell know that his job depends on getting Novosad to sign on the dotted line. Can't hold on to high school quarterbacks, can't hold on to the guys on our team, can't land any game changers in the transfer portal. Quarterback coach the common denominator in all of those
Someone hasn't paid attention to college programs outside our own. No one "holds on" to backup quarterbacks for more than a year anymore, and supplanted starters almost always transfer. It has nothing to do with the quarterback coach. Guys want to play and will go where they have the opportunity to do so.
LIB,MR BEARS
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The Hound said:

Like I said in the other thread, if I am Aranda, I am letting Shawn Bell know that his job depends on getting Novosad to sign on the dotted line. Can't hold on to high school quarterbacks, can't hold on to the guys on our team, can't land any game changers in the transfer portal. Quarterback coach the common denominator in all of those
doesn't he get a shot at the steak knives.
LIB,MR BEARS
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The Hound said:

Like I said in the other thread, if I am Aranda, I am letting Shawn Bell know that his job depends on getting Novosad to sign on the dotted line. Can't hold on to high school quarterbacks, can't hold on to the guys on our team, can't land any game changers in the transfer portal. Quarterback coach the common denominator in all of those
Which player/recruit is your NIL money going to?
parch
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The Hound said:

Like I said in the other thread, if I am Aranda, I am letting Shawn Bell know that his job depends on getting Novosad to sign on the dotted line. Can't hold on to high school quarterbacks, can't hold on to the guys on our team, can't land any game changers in the transfer portal. Quarterback coach the common denominator in all of those
This is obviously extreme, but Novosad is Bell's capstone at Baylor so far. If Novosad flips a month before he's supposed to turn up to campus, Aranda will not and should not be pleased with the events that led that to happen. Especially after this kind of a head start.


Quote:

A monumental win for Baylor, Shawn Bell and company fought to the tooth and nail with some major blue blood programs in Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Texas A&M. At times Baylors chances of keeping the four-star quarterback seemed rather bleak, but at the end of the day Baylor believing in Novosad from the jump, his fit at Baylor, and his relationship with Baylor QB Coach Shawn Bell is what ended up keeping Novosad committed to Baylor.

"He (Bell) is definitely a guy I stay in contact with all the time, having a coach that has your back through everything sets him apart from other coaches. He knows so much about my personal life and we just connect so well together, that's honestly why it is just so fun to be around him and the whole staff." Said Novosad.

Novosad camped at Baylor last Saturday where he was simply on fire the whole camp. After the camp he participated in a private workout led by Shawn Bell with fellow Baylor 2023 commit Micah Gifford catching passes.

"I think just getting up there Saturday and just letting him (Shawn Bell) coach me, it was cool to just see our relationship and everything we've had and gone through in the past pay off, and it was like a little preview of what its gonna be like when I get there. Having my relationship with him has definitely helped me make my decision."

After Saturday Novosad seemed to have had made up his mind on staying a Bear-

"I think that was just the icing on the cake, really getting around some of the guys in the class and then hanging around Coach Bell throughout the day and getting through camp you can just see how well I'll fit in there and getting there Saturday just made me feel confident in my decision."
Dia del DougO
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The Hound said:

Like I said in the other thread, if I am Aranda, I am letting Shawn Bell know that his job depends on getting Novosad to sign on the dotted line. Can't hold on to high school quarterbacks, can't hold on to the guys on our team, can't land any game changers in the transfer portal. Quarterback coach the common denominator in all of those
If I'm Aranda and I lose Novosad, I'm not blaming anyone else. I'm blaming 6-6, throwing away a win vs TCU, and a bowl that's just barely above not making it to a bowl.
"The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool."
Mitch Henessey
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You guys must be new to how recruiting websites work. Even if the percentage chance of Novosad flipping to Oregon is less than 1% (I have no idea what the right number is, because I don't follow recruiting, nor do I have connections on this), the Oregon recruiting websites have an incentive to make it seem like the chance is 50% or greater. If you can keep readers in suspense, it drives traffic, and if enough people get hooked on the dopamine hit recruiting can give them, it drives subscriptions, which is what websites like this really care about.

I have a buddy who used to work for the Rivals site for an SEC school. He said the way they would write a story is ask a player or coach, "who is one guy who has stood out in Spring Ball?" Get an answer of a player, then, go around the locker room and ask each person, "tell me about [player X]." Drive the conversation so that it seems like it's all anyone is talking about. They then would write a column about how."[Player X] is the Talk of Spring Ball," with breathless accolades from all sources. Rinse and repeat. Sometimes, they wouldn't even get an original source. They'd just pick a player and ask other players about him. Boom, there's your story.

All of this to say two things:

1) Of course Oregon sites are going to speculate and predict Novosad will flip. Whether or not they do so has little to do with the actual chances of the flip occurring. Follow the money and you'll see they're incentivized to make it a spectacle. The recruiting website wins, whether the player commits or not.

2) Stop living and dying on the whims of 17-18 year old kids. It's borderline pathetic, and a waste of mental energy that could very easily be poured into something more productive. I personally don't start to pay attention to any of it, in any sport, until they've signed a LOI. It's worked for me, but your experience may vary.
bear2be2
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Dia del DougO said:

The Hound said:

Like I said in the other thread, if I am Aranda, I am letting Shawn Bell know that his job depends on getting Novosad to sign on the dotted line. Can't hold on to high school quarterbacks, can't hold on to the guys on our team, can't land any game changers in the transfer portal. Quarterback coach the common denominator in all of those
If I'm Aranda and I lose Novosad, I'm not blaming anyone else. I'm blaming 6-6, throwing away a win vs TCU, and a bowl that's just barely above not making it to a bowl.
I was about to post something very similar. If we lose Novasad, the main culprit is likely to be a 6-6 campaign during which we lost all of the momentum from the season before. In that case, Aranda will have to look in the mirror first.
bear2be2
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Mitch Henessey said:

You guys must be new to how recruiting websites work. Even if the percentage chance of Novosad flipping to Oregon is less than 1% (I have no idea what the right number is, because I don't follow recruiting, nor do I have connections on this), the Oregon recruiting websites have an incentive to make it seem like the chance is 50% or greater. If you can keep readers in suspense, it drives traffic, and if enough people get hooked on the dopamine hit recruiting can give them, it drives subscriptions, which is what websites like this really care about.

I have a buddy who used to work for the Rivals site for an SEC school. He said the way they would write a story is ask a player or coach, "who is one guy who has stood out in Spring Ball?" Get an answer of a player, then, go around the locker room and ask each person, "tell me about [player X]." Drive the conversation so that it seems like it's all anyone is talking about. They then would write a column about how."[Player X] is the Talk of Spring Ball," with breathless accolades from all sources. Rinse and repeat. Sometimes, they wouldn't even get an original source. They'd just pick a player and ask other players about him. Boom, there's your story.

All of this to say two things:

1) Of course Oregon sites are going to speculate and predict Novosad will flip. Whether or not they do so has little to do with the actual chances of the flip occurring. Follow the money and you'll see they're incentivized to make it a spectacle. The recruiting website wins, whether the player commits or not.

2) Stop living and dying on the whims of 17-18 year old kids. It's borderline pathetic, and a waste of mental energy that could very easily be poured into something more productive. I personally don't start to pay attention to any of it, in any sport, until they've signed a LOI. It's worked for me, but your experience may vary.
I used to follow recruiting, but I'm pretty much with you at this point. We've had three straight coaches prove that you can win at a championship level in Waco with Texas high school leftovers. Find the ones that fit what we're doing and want to be here and let's roll. I'm not going to worry about or make any emotional investment in any of it until ink is dry.
Russell Gym
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Even when the ink is dry, there is no point. Transfer portal ensures that even signing a LOI is meaningless.
LIB,MR BEARS
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bear2be2 said:

Dia del DougO said:

The Hound said:

Like I said in the other thread, if I am Aranda, I am letting Shawn Bell know that his job depends on getting Novosad to sign on the dotted line. Can't hold on to high school quarterbacks, can't hold on to the guys on our team, can't land any game changers in the transfer portal. Quarterback coach the common denominator in all of those
If I'm Aranda and I lose Novosad, I'm not blaming anyone else. I'm blaming 6-6, throwing away a win vs TCU, and a bowl that's just barely above not making it to a bowl.
I was about to post something very similar. If we lose Novasad, the main culprit is likely to be a 6-6 campaign during which we lost all of the momentum from the season before. In that case, Aranda will have to look in the mirror first.
The main culprit will be NIL

It's the market
bear2be2
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Russell Gym said:

Even when the ink is dry, there is no point. Transfer portal ensures that even signing a LOI is meaningless.
Not really. Be honest with your players, treat them well and the vast majority will stay. This transfer portal fatalism is weird.
bear2be2
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LIB,MR BEARS said:

bear2be2 said:

Dia del DougO said:

The Hound said:

Like I said in the other thread, if I am Aranda, I am letting Shawn Bell know that his job depends on getting Novosad to sign on the dotted line. Can't hold on to high school quarterbacks, can't hold on to the guys on our team, can't land any game changers in the transfer portal. Quarterback coach the common denominator in all of those
If I'm Aranda and I lose Novosad, I'm not blaming anyone else. I'm blaming 6-6, throwing away a win vs TCU, and a bowl that's just barely above not making it to a bowl.
I was about to post something very similar. If we lose Novasad, the main culprit is likely to be a 6-6 campaign during which we lost all of the momentum from the season before. In that case, Aranda will have to look in the mirror first.
The main culprit will be NIL

It's the market
Doubt it. Novosad could always get more NIL money elsewhere. If that was his top priority, he would have never committed to Baylor in the first place. And he certainly wouldn't have stayed committed through overtures by blue blood programs like Ohio State.
blackie
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bear2be2 said:

Mitch Henessey said:

You guys must be new to how recruiting websites work. Even if the percentage chance of Novosad flipping to Oregon is less than 1% (I have no idea what the right number is, because I don't follow recruiting, nor do I have connections on this), the Oregon recruiting websites have an incentive to make it seem like the chance is 50% or greater. If you can keep readers in suspense, it drives traffic, and if enough people get hooked on the dopamine hit recruiting can give them, it drives subscriptions, which is what websites like this really care about.

I have a buddy who used to work for the Rivals site for an SEC school. He said the way they would write a story is ask a player or coach, "who is one guy who has stood out in Spring Ball?" Get an answer of a player, then, go around the locker room and ask each person, "tell me about [player X]." Drive the conversation so that it seems like it's all anyone is talking about. They then would write a column about how."[Player X] is the Talk of Spring Ball," with breathless accolades from all sources. Rinse and repeat. Sometimes, they wouldn't even get an original source. They'd just pick a player and ask other players about him. Boom, there's your story.

All of this to say two things:

1) Of course Oregon sites are going to speculate and predict Novosad will flip. Whether or not they do so has little to do with the actual chances of the flip occurring. Follow the money and you'll see they're incentivized to make it a spectacle. The recruiting website wins, whether the player commits or not.

2) Stop living and dying on the whims of 17-18 year old kids. It's borderline pathetic, and a waste of mental energy that could very easily be poured into something more productive. I personally don't start to pay attention to any of it, in any sport, until they've signed a LOI. It's worked for me, but your experience may vary.
I used to follow recruiting, but I'm pretty much with you at this point. We've had three straight coaches prove that you can win at a championship level in Waco with Texas high school leftovers. Find the ones that fit what we're doing and want to be here and let's roll. I'm not going to worry about or make any emotional investment in any of it until ink is dry.
Outstanding points. These professional coaches have things go wrong all the time. But unlike fans, it is their job to overcome and move on versus obsessing what could have been or might have been, and especially wasting time blaming things, many of which are out of the control. CDA seems to have the perfect disposition to do that. He visited the kid personally this week. He has done all he can. If the kid doesn't come or ends up being a bust when he gets here, He'll overcome that too. You can't obsess over one player. There are too many out there that can fill your needs.
bear2be2
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blackie said:

bear2be2 said:

Mitch Henessey said:

You guys must be new to how recruiting websites work. Even if the percentage chance of Novosad flipping to Oregon is less than 1% (I have no idea what the right number is, because I don't follow recruiting, nor do I have connections on this), the Oregon recruiting websites have an incentive to make it seem like the chance is 50% or greater. If you can keep readers in suspense, it drives traffic, and if enough people get hooked on the dopamine hit recruiting can give them, it drives subscriptions, which is what websites like this really care about.

I have a buddy who used to work for the Rivals site for an SEC school. He said the way they would write a story is ask a player or coach, "who is one guy who has stood out in Spring Ball?" Get an answer of a player, then, go around the locker room and ask each person, "tell me about [player X]." Drive the conversation so that it seems like it's all anyone is talking about. They then would write a column about how."[Player X] is the Talk of Spring Ball," with breathless accolades from all sources. Rinse and repeat. Sometimes, they wouldn't even get an original source. They'd just pick a player and ask other players about him. Boom, there's your story.

All of this to say two things:

1) Of course Oregon sites are going to speculate and predict Novosad will flip. Whether or not they do so has little to do with the actual chances of the flip occurring. Follow the money and you'll see they're incentivized to make it a spectacle. The recruiting website wins, whether the player commits or not.

2) Stop living and dying on the whims of 17-18 year old kids. It's borderline pathetic, and a waste of mental energy that could very easily be poured into something more productive. I personally don't start to pay attention to any of it, in any sport, until they've signed a LOI. It's worked for me, but your experience may vary.
I used to follow recruiting, but I'm pretty much with you at this point. We've had three straight coaches prove that you can win at a championship level in Waco with Texas high school leftovers. Find the ones that fit what we're doing and want to be here and let's roll. I'm not going to worry about or make any emotional investment in any of it until ink is dry.
Outstanding points. These professional coaches have things go wrong all the time. But unlike fans, it is their job to overcome and move on versus obsessing what could have been or might have been, and especially wasting time blaming things, many of which are out of the control. CDA seems to have the perfect disposition to do that. He visited the kid personally this week. He has done all he can. If the kid doesn't come or ends up being a bust when he gets here, He'll overcome that too. You can't obsess over one player. There are too many out there that can fill your needs.
Yep. The quarterback position is the only one that worries me a little bit going forward because you're basically going to have two scholarship guys and a preferred walk-on as a depth chart in perpetuity. So you need to stay on top of that. But the transfer portal lessens the risk considerably because you can always grab a veteran looking for an opportunity to start or compete for a starting job.
LIB,MR BEARS
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bear2be2 said:

Russell Gym said:

Even when the ink is dry, there is no point. Transfer portal ensures that even signing a LOI is meaningless.
Not really. Be honest with your players, treat them well and the vast majority will stay. This transfer portal fatalism is weird.
is the portal the same for a 4* QB vs a DB or do QBs get a premium?
LIB,MR BEARS
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bear2be2 said:

LIB,MR BEARS said:

bear2be2 said:

Dia del DougO said:

The Hound said:

Like I said in the other thread, if I am Aranda, I am letting Shawn Bell know that his job depends on getting Novosad to sign on the dotted line. Can't hold on to high school quarterbacks, can't hold on to the guys on our team, can't land any game changers in the transfer portal. Quarterback coach the common denominator in all of those
If I'm Aranda and I lose Novosad, I'm not blaming anyone else. I'm blaming 6-6, throwing away a win vs TCU, and a bowl that's just barely above not making it to a bowl.
I was about to post something very similar. If we lose Novasad, the main culprit is likely to be a 6-6 campaign during which we lost all of the momentum from the season before. In that case, Aranda will have to look in the mirror first.
The main culprit will be NIL

It's the market
Doubt it. Novosad could always get more NIL money elsewhere. If that was his top priority, he would have never committed to Baylor in the first place. And he certainly wouldn't have stayed committed through overtures by blue blood programs like Ohio State.
Ohio State was not desperate at the time like Oregon is now. That, in itself, will drive the price up.
bear2be2
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LIB,MR BEARS said:

bear2be2 said:

Russell Gym said:

Even when the ink is dry, there is no point. Transfer portal ensures that even signing a LOI is meaningless.
Not really. Be honest with your players, treat them well and the vast majority will stay. This transfer portal fatalism is weird.
is the portal the same for a 4* QB vs a DB or do QBs get a premium?
I think you're conflating NIL and the portal. But most quarterbacks who are starting and playing well don't leave their universities without a new variable introduced like a coaching change.
bear2be2
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LIB,MR BEARS said:

bear2be2 said:

LIB,MR BEARS said:

bear2be2 said:

Dia del DougO said:

The Hound said:

Like I said in the other thread, if I am Aranda, I am letting Shawn Bell know that his job depends on getting Novosad to sign on the dotted line. Can't hold on to high school quarterbacks, can't hold on to the guys on our team, can't land any game changers in the transfer portal. Quarterback coach the common denominator in all of those
If I'm Aranda and I lose Novosad, I'm not blaming anyone else. I'm blaming 6-6, throwing away a win vs TCU, and a bowl that's just barely above not making it to a bowl.
I was about to post something very similar. If we lose Novasad, the main culprit is likely to be a 6-6 campaign during which we lost all of the momentum from the season before. In that case, Aranda will have to look in the mirror first.
The main culprit will be NIL

It's the market
Doubt it. Novosad could always get more NIL money elsewhere. If that was his top priority, he would have never committed to Baylor in the first place. And he certainly wouldn't have stayed committed through overtures by blue blood programs like Ohio State.
Ohio State was not desperate at the time like Oregon is now. That, in itself, will drive the price up.
With the transfer portal, no team is ever desperate. If you miss on the recruiting trail, you just go grab a transfer. Oregon already did this with Bo Nix. Those types of guys are always available, and Oregon will always be an attractive destination.
Aberzombie1892
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LIB,MR BEARS said:

bear2be2 said:

LIB,MR BEARS said:

bear2be2 said:

Dia del DougO said:

The Hound said:

Like I said in the other thread, if I am Aranda, I am letting Shawn Bell know that his job depends on getting Novosad to sign on the dotted line. Can't hold on to high school quarterbacks, can't hold on to the guys on our team, can't land any game changers in the transfer portal. Quarterback coach the common denominator in all of those
If I'm Aranda and I lose Novosad, I'm not blaming anyone else. I'm blaming 6-6, throwing away a win vs TCU, and a bowl that's just barely above not making it to a bowl.
I was about to post something very similar. If we lose Novasad, the main culprit is likely to be a 6-6 campaign during which we lost all of the momentum from the season before. In that case, Aranda will have to look in the mirror first.
The main culprit will be NIL

It's the market
Doubt it. Novosad could always get more NIL money elsewhere. If that was his top priority, he would have never committed to Baylor in the first place. And he certainly wouldn't have stayed committed through overtures by blue blood programs like Ohio State.
Ohio State was not desperate at the time like Oregon is now. That, in itself, will drive the price up.
Bo Nix was #4 in QBR in 2022 - every program in FBS would be "desperate" to keep such a player or replace said player with the best alternative possible.
PartyBear
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Signing Day is tomorrow starting probably at midnight in the modern electronic age (unless there is a rule that it starts at a set time). I suspect this is all much ado about nothing. I doubt the kid who has this relationship to the staff all this time would blind side them on signing day. My guess is he would tell them then word would leak or he would go public. As of right now at the time I'm posting this, that doesn't seem to have occurred.
Mr Tulip
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I think you're placing way too much stock in the quality of the portal.
There's gonna be some player where the coach left, or things just didn't work out. Certainly, at QB, there can only be one starter - often for years. It's understandable that a QB2 might just decide to go elsewhere.

At other positions, say OL, there's 5 starters and a whole host of rotation. Those in the portal right now were almost certainly told, "It ain't happening here, kid.". Maybe a different OL coach can change his fortune. The overwhelming likelihood is that he's just not starter quality. Same thing at the LB and DB.

Now that we're a couple weeks into it, you'll see some starters get in the portal. These players almost certainly heard from a friend who knows their old HS coach who talked with a trainer at a conference with a coach from a different team that would really like a player that just happens to meet his exact circumstance. They'll get into the portal, test the waters, take a couple of token trip, and sign with the team that needed them. No other team ever had a chance.

Executive Summary: There's quality in the portal, but it's almost always prearranged. The majority of free agents are JAGs looking for opportunity.
BearlyBeloved
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Mr Tulip said:

At other positions, say OL, there's 5 starters and a whole host of rotation.
EXCELLENT point! And it suggests a solution: Design your offense to uses 2 QB's with regularity.

Occasionally there's a gimmick play that uses two quarterbacks, and several teams have alternated QB's between series or even between plays (Grant Teaff's being among them). But consistently keeping two on the field is a step beyond.

Creating twice the opportunities to play makes it easier to keep them from transferring. And each one probably would only get sacked half as often, which they should appreciate.

Of course, unless you change to 12 players under the rules, it also will lessen the opportunities for running backs or receivers, but I'll let somebody else post their solution to that. I've done my share by solving this specific problem of QB transfers.
LIB,MR BEARS
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BearlyBeloved said:

Mr Tulip said:

At other positions, say OL, there's 5 starters and a whole host of rotation.
EXCELLENT point! And it suggests a solution: Design your offense to uses 2 QB's with regularity.

Occasionally there's a gimmick play that uses two quarterbacks, and several teams have alternated QB's between series or even between plays (Grant Teaff's being among them). But consistently keeping two on the field is a step beyond.

Creating twice the opportunities to play makes it easier to keep them from transferring. And each one probably would only get sacked half as often, which they should appreciate.

Of course, unless you change to 12 players under the rules, it also will lessen the opportunities for running backs or receivers, but I'll let somebody else post their solution to that. I've done my share by solving this specific problem of QB transfers.
Mauke/Carlson approved this message
BearlyBeloved
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Alternating QB's also worked for Coach Steve Spurrier.
Russell Gym
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bear2be2 said:

Russell Gym said:

Even when the ink is dry, there is no point. Transfer portal ensures that even signing a LOI is meaningless.
Not really. Be honest with your players, treat them well and the vast majority will stay. This transfer portal fatalism is weird.

Some will stay, some will go. But there is no real commitment to an LOI when a player can transfer at any time. That's my point. I'm not fatalistic about that option for players. I'm simply pointing out that there is not much difference in being signed or not signed. No point in fans stressing over it. For coaches, it's a different game.
boognish_bear
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Random thought.....but this early signing day we have now has got to be an extra challenge for coaches in bowl games.

Especially for Aranda right now taking over DC duties. It's got to be a challenge to be studying film and game planning....and also making sure you are giving time to your recruits.

Guess that's why he makes big money.
 
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