You guys must be new to how recruiting websites work. Even if the percentage chance of Novosad flipping to Oregon is less than 1% (I have no idea what the right number is, because I don't follow recruiting, nor do I have connections on this), the Oregon recruiting websites have an incentive to make it seem like the chance is 50% or greater. If you can keep readers in suspense, it drives traffic, and if enough people get hooked on the dopamine hit recruiting can give them, it drives subscriptions, which is what websites like this really care about.
I have a buddy who used to work for the Rivals site for an SEC school. He said the way they would write a story is ask a player or coach, "who is one guy who has stood out in Spring Ball?" Get an answer of a player, then, go around the locker room and ask each person, "tell me about [player X]." Drive the conversation so that it seems like it's all anyone is talking about. They then would write a column about how."[Player X] is the Talk of Spring Ball," with breathless accolades from all sources. Rinse and repeat. Sometimes, they wouldn't even get an original source. They'd just pick a player and ask other players about him. Boom, there's your story.
All of this to say two things:
1) Of course Oregon sites are going to speculate and predict Novosad will flip. Whether or not they do so has little to do with the actual chances of the flip occurring. Follow the money and you'll see they're incentivized to make it a spectacle. The recruiting website wins, whether the player commits or not.
2) Stop living and dying on the whims of 17-18 year old kids. It's borderline pathetic, and a waste of mental energy that could very easily be poured into something more productive. I personally don't start to pay attention to any of it, in any sport, until they've signed a LOI. It's worked for me, but your experience may vary.