We don't know what conversations were had between Aranda and Novosad leading up to today. It may appear to be Aranda getting blind-sided because it was announced just today, but that's not to say that Novosad didn't speak with Aranda beforehand. Novosad has been interacting with A&M and Oregon content on social media for awhile now so this isn't really that new of a development.

And while he was 100% committed as he said at one point, that was in the context of that current moment. Schools were obviously trying to pry him from that commitment and it looks like Oregon gave him an offer that most 18 year olds probably wouldn't pass up. I'm sure many of you wouldn't either if given the opportunity, but we truly don't know how we'd react in that moment either.

It does suck that we are in the situation that we are in. And at the same time, hating on an 18 year old for taking a life-altering opportunity comes off as nothing more than envy.

Oregon crushing it

On3 Consensus Team Recruiting Rankings halfway through National Signing Day👀https://t.co/FY227kL2qV pic.twitter.com/U1HIwP7hQ0

— On3 Recruits (@On3Recruits) December 21, 2022

That PK money is flipping a lot of kids. BU not alone on this one.

What a day for Oregon 🦆

- Flipped 4-star QB Austin Novosad from Baylor

- Flipped 5-star DB Peyton Bowen from Notre Dame

- Got a commitment from 5-star DE Matayo Uiagalelei

- Flipped 4-star DB Daylen Austin from LSU

➡️ https://t.co/IUD6lkgqCT pic.twitter.com/WAN21YWPMT

— Yahoo Sports College Football (@YahooSportsCFB) December 21, 2022

Ghostrider said:

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Art_E_Guinn said:

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BaylorGuru said:

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If he flips, fans need to wake up and hold aranda and co accountable. No back up plan and a lot of issues behind the scenes. Can't wait for the boomer Baylor fans to say "back in my day we were happy just have a 4 star consider us".

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pretty sure Baylor was pulling in 4 and 5-star skill players left and right in the late 80s and early 90s. i wasn't around then, but you can go back and see the old recruiting rankings and Baylor had multiple top 10 QBs and RBs under Reedy and Dave Roberts.

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no, we weren't.

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go check out Tom Lemming's rankings from 1990 - 98. Baylor commits are all over the place, loads of QBs, RBs and FBs. only 1 or 2 receivers. (i believe a solid chunk of those listed failed to qualify academically. i'm assuming Roberts and Reedy only cared about talent and just ignored any red flags.)

1998 was the last year they landed high-ranked recruits. 17 of Lemming's top 500 committed to Baylor in '98 under Dave Roberts. it dropped to 1 in 1999 with the arrival of Kevin Steele (the #25 TE) and kept getting worse in subsequent years.

1995: (partial list)
#3 Option QB (Jermaine Alfred)
#5 Option QB (Tommie Black)
#26 RB (Dexter Ford)
#2 Center
#4 Nose Guard
#1 JUCO transfer (DL Donnie Embra)

1996: (partial)
#1 Dual QB in 1996 (Odell)
#13 RB (E Burkins)
#21 RB (D Bush)
#33 RB (Tyson Wilson--not sure if he played)
#35 RB (Joe Walker--not sure if he played)
#42 WR (Quincy Morgan--never played)
#18 JUCO transfer (QB Rodney Artmore--moved to DB, played with the Packers)

1998: (partial)
#9 Dual QB (Brandon Jones--2 spots ahead of Michael Vick)
#2 RB (Ben Gay)
#3, 7, 13, 20, 37, 41, 48, 60 JUCO transfers

boognish_bear said:

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That PK money is flipping a lot of kids. BU not alone on this one.

What a day for Oregon 🦆

- Flipped 4-star QB Austin Novosad from Baylor

- Flipped 5-star DB Peyton Bowen from Notre Dame

- Got a commitment from 5-star DE Matayo Uiagalelei

- Flipped 4-star DB Daylen Austin from LSU

➡️ https://t.co/IUD6lkgqCT pic.twitter.com/WAN21YWPMT

— Yahoo Sports College Football (@YahooSportsCFB) December 21, 2022

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I didn't think it was about NIL but now I do. I think Phil Knight failed in initial efforts to get Oregon into the B10 and got the checkbook out to money whip these late flips. These kind of flips will make Oregon much more relevant in future B10 discussions.

Consequence of NiL. Transfers and flips being bought by the "haves" will further separate them from the smaller/Private "have nots". Oregon obviously threw $$$$ at the kid, whose future is prob secure whether he ever throws a P5 pass in anger!

It’s exciting for fans to see where their team is ranked, but it’s certainly devalued given every guy you sign could be gone a year from now. https://t.co/bAWW6c6tTQ

— Stewart Mandel (@slmandel) December 21, 2022

i noticed a lot of folks are assuming this is a NIL issue

I think its possible that this kid watched Shapen play a full season,saw him continue to get worse each week and asked himself what's gonna happen to me
Also I wonder if he contacted Bohannon and Drones and asked what was going on

I say this in relation to the quarterback room and recruiting the position.

I would be shocked if Aranda allows what happened today to happen again.

Im not talking about having a kid decommit one — that’s going to happen — I mean not having a back-up plan. #Baylor #sicem

— The Ten12 Network (@Ten12Network) December 21, 2022

It is a shock he thought not having a back up plan would work out even just one time.

robby44 said:

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i noticed a lot of folks are assuming this is a NIL issue

I think its possible that this kid watched Shapen play a full season,saw him continue to get worse each week and asked himself what's gonna happen to me
Also I wonder if he contacted Bohannon and Drones and asked what was going on

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That is possible. But I think we are way behind in the NIL game just like we once were regarding facilities and staff budgets. In fact I[m pretty sure we are way behind. A former women's hoops player a couple of weeks ago commented that "we arent about a culture of greed here" on the topic of NIL. That to me was a tell that we dont grasp the significance of NIL and are coming up with lame excuses for being way behind. Like it is some sort of Christian duty to not participate in that it or some shxt like that.

robby44 said:

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i noticed a lot of folks are assuming this is a NIL issue

I think its possible that this kid watched Shapen play a full season,saw him continue to get worse each week and asked himself what's gonna happen to me
Also I wonder if he contacted Bohannon and Drones and asked what was going on

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It's possible... but a week or 2 ago he was all in on BU. Why wait until a week before signing day to contact ex players, evaluate shapen, etc. Then there is the 11th hour interest from Oregon. Odds are he got an offer he couldn't refuse from PK who has opened up the checkbook in an attempt to keep Oregon relevant at an national level,

We aren't the only victims here.

robby44 said:

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i noticed a lot of folks are assuming this is a NIL issue

I think its possible that this kid watched Shapen play a full season,saw him continue to get worse each week and asked himself what's gonna happen to me
Also I wonder if he contacted Bohannon and Drones and asked what was going on

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It's not a playing time issue.
It's not a proximity to home issue
That leaves either NIL
Or the QB coach. Which I hope Baylor changes come January.

That's BS. You can't make a person sign/ SB worked his ass off to get this guy. Just like my fathers business. You never new which employees were going to show-up until they got there AN character was on display......and it is not looking good. Would not take him if he begged to come to Baylor.

Bigkahunaww said:

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robby44 said:

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i noticed a lot of folks are assuming this is a NIL issue

I think its possible that this kid watched Shapen play a full season,saw him continue to get worse each week and asked himself what's gonna happen to me
Also I wonder if he contacted Bohannon and Drones and asked what was going on

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It's not a playing time issue.
It's not a proximity to home issue
That leaves either NIL
Or the QB coach. Which I hope Baylor changes come January.

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What about a 6-6 record with an abysmal bowl birth this season?

I'm guessing money was the overriding factor....but one thing mentioned here is that Oregon has a very talented group of WRs for him to throw to.

"(Will Stein) wasn't going to be able to convince Austin Novosad to come play for him at UTSA, but him wearing a different logo, that green Oregon jacket, makes it a lot more attractive."@SWiltfong247 breaks down 4-star QB Austin Novosad flipping from Baylor to Oregon 🦆 pic.twitter.com/wT16EEC5zQ

— 247Sports (@247Sports) December 21, 2022

Wow....Oregon just flipped another one. That makes two they've stolen from ND today.

BREAKING: Four-Star RB Jayden Limar has Flipped his Commitment from Notre Dame to Oregon!

The 5’11 190 RB from Lake Stevens, WA had been committed to the Fighting Irish since May.

Oregon is having a great day on the recruiting trail. https://t.co/TMxqAymSwA pic.twitter.com/ZX1S88c8st

— Hayes Fawcett (@Hayesfawcett3) December 21, 2022

Marcus Freeman: “We’re going to focus on the ones who decided to come here."

"You can't worry about the ones you didn't get." pic.twitter.com/VWhy4O8Ctm

— Patrick Engel (@PatrickEngel_) December 21, 2022

On 24/7 transfer portal there are over 40 qbs with three stars or more. Surely we can find one that can be the backup next year.

Little reminder - It happens in reverse sometimes too.

"Butler enrolled at Alabama, but did not participate in the team's summer workouts and requested an unconditional release from his letter of intent in order to transfer to Baylor University.[url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jared_Butler#cite_note-6][6][/url] Alabama released him from his commitment in August"

Casper1990 said:

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On 24/7 transfer portal there are over 40 qbs with three stars or more. Surely we can find one that can be the backup next year.

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The bolded part is the key. How many want to be a backup? I think this portal business with NIL money an X-factor is going to make a lot of teams a one-QB team and you better hope that one-QB is good enough and can stay healthy enough to last the season. The good ones want to play. They don't want to be backups. A lot of them only have one year of eligibility left. They don't want to sit on the bench. So what the team is left with is a drop off after QB1. I would think that will be the norm versus the exception.

In the past, even good ones had to sit and wait their turn. That is no longer the case. They can always leave. They might leave and be on a weaker team, but they will be playing and that is what they want. The good ones with one year left are the peach that you want to pluck if your QB1 isn't good enough........and then hope your supposedly #1 doesn't leave when the portal guy comes in.

We brought a butter knife to a gun fight

Kudos to Oregon on a phenomenal Signing Day.

A lot of these NIL collectives are amateur hour operations. Oregon’s Division Street is basically a mini-Nike, run by former execs there. pic.twitter.com/MbZfDHcbm2

— Stewart Mandel (@slmandel) December 22, 2022

https://247sports.com/Article/Oregon-football-recruiting-Austin-Novosad-Dan-Lanning-flips-Baylor-201021820/

Here's some of Novosad's reasoning....of course he's not gonna say I did for fat stacks of cash.

Top247 QB Austin Novosad flips to Oregon

13 hours ago
Dripping Springs (Texas) High Top247 quarterback Austin Novosad has flipped his commitment from Baylor to Oregon. He handled it behind the scenes on Tuesday evening and went public with his plans on Wednesday morning.

"The overall fit was good," Novosad told 247Sports. New Ducks offensive coordinator Will Stein led the charge in the Pac 12 program's late push for Novosad. The two have a long-standing relationship with Stein coming to Eugene after leading the University of Texas San Antonio to a Top 10 showing on offense this season.

"With the previous Stein relationship and the offense he runs is great. I think he develops quarterbacks and they have some dudes to throw to."

The 6-foot-3, 185-pound Novosad took a visit to Eugene this past weekend. He becomes commit No. 24 for Dan Lanning and his staff in the 2023 cycle.

"Also after meeting Coach Lanning, I could tell that I would fit into the culture there."

A three year-starter on the prep level, Novosad has thrown for 8,983 yards and 114 touchdowns to just 18 interceptions. He is tabbed by the Top247 as the nation's No. 9 quarterback and No. 86 prospect overall and will play in the All-American Bowl on Jan. 7.

With Novosad in the fold, Oregon's class rises to three spots to No. 12 in the 247Sports Composite Team Recruiting Rankings with a lot of runway to go with the prospects the Ducks are in on late in the cycle.

"The class is really shaping up and there are some big-time playmakers that are looking to only help the program in the future."

"I think the biggest draw was the talent the Ducks have and are getting at receiver," Novosad's father Trey added. "That combined with Austin's long relationship with Stein which made him feel comfortable enough to do it. He also really liked Dan once he met him and spending the last week getting to know him."

**** that little dip***** I hope the coaching staff learned a few valuable lessons this year:
1.) don't let a high school recruit call the shots on who you recruit…don't care how good he is.
2.) don't even bother with recruiting HS QBs. More than half of them will end up transferring anyway. Have a huge NIL escrow account and go after developed or partially developed QBs in the portal.

Devote your efforts to drafting OL/RBs/WRs and defensive talent at the HS level.

If its all about NIL then how is Scott Drew able to sign so many impact highly rated basketballers
Does basketball have more NIL money available than football?

robby44 said:

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If its all about NIL then how is Scott Drew able to sign so many impact highly rated basketballers
Does basketball have more NIL money available than football?

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Technically speaking, fewer "NILs," if you knowwhatimeanandithinkyoudo

Goodluck to you Austin !! https://t.co/UvzqxZLlD5

— Dawson Pendergrass ⭐️⭐️⭐️ (@Dawson_penni) December 21, 2022

boognish_bear said:

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We don't have the facts yet....but if Oregon came in and money whipped Novosad and BU couldn't keep up can we really blame him walking on Bell. Given that he's walking into a much more competitive QB room at Oregon I have to imagine money was involved.

I think there are other issues happening around our QBs that should raise some red flags about Bell...but not sure we can put Novosad walking on him.

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I think what's clear is 1) Phil Knight will be dead soon, 2) oregon is largely a nothing program other than Nike and espn and 3) this was a steinbrenneresque attempt to try to make them so valuable with their 50,000 person stadium that the Big 10 takes them before he's dead. After that it's Mwc for them

Two minutes till midnight…. Novosad is somewhere right now on the phone just trying to make sure one final time that Oregon is his best offer before he picks up that pen to sign

MarcelloSwisher said:

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Two minutes till midnight…. Novosad is somewhere right now on the phone just trying to make sure one final time that Oregon is his best offer before he picks up that pen to sign

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He still hasn't signed?

Wowowow. Lol

He'll Still sign with them but obviously not running to the altar. Always ends in disaster

robby44 said:

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i noticed a lot of folks are assuming this is a NIL issue

I think its possible that this kid watched Shapen play a full season,saw him continue to get worse each week and asked himself what's gonna happen to me
Also I wonder if he contacted Bohannon and Drones and asked what was going on

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Possibly if it was just one. Five means Nike money.

He'll sign, backup Bo Nix this upcoming year while raking in the NIL cash, cars ect. Year after Nix leaves he'll face his first QB competition and promptly run to the portal with his tail tucked between his legs. I've got his type figured out.

Any updates on the QB pursuit in the portal? I think I saw something about Aranda putting it off until January (which would be absolutely stupid).