Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
Bingo. When this stupid trope and nutty belief is the core of your message - as it was with many of Trump's candidates, that may be red meat in a few of the majority Republican areas, but doesn't play well outside of them. Arizonans were sick of hearing that bull***** But alas, any candidate who wanted Trump's endorsement had to repeat the election denying nonsense, which of course played into the hands of Dems who painted them as extremists and destroyers of democracy.
Trump's insistence that his candidates repeat that crap at their rallies is yet another huge negative that whiterock conveniently omits in his analysis.
Except 70-80% of Republicans believe the election was stolen, so it's going to be an issue in a primary, whether Trump craws a breath or not. Further, depending on how the issue is phrased, a narrow to large majority of the public sees there definitely is a problem with election integrity.
As I said, it may be red meat in the majority Republican areas, but doesn't play well outside them, in case you haven't looked at the polls. 63% of all Americans think that the stolen election trope is bull***** I didn't hear DeSantis talking about any stolen elections this election cycle, nor Youngkin. And it certainly didn't play well in Arizona, did it?
As I said, as long as Republicans keep repeating that silly trope, they are going to lose elections. It's pretty simple.
we can post numbers back and forth showing 50-60% support on either side of the election integrity issue. Even if we accept that the numbers are balanced (which they're not....most show a majority think we have serious problems with our elections), all it would prove is that election integrity is hardly a right wing trope bull**** thing out on the furthest fringes of the party anathema to anyone capable of swallowing drool. It's a serious, mainstream issue that has to be dealt. Further, why would an electorate content with the growth of mail in voting to 35% of the total (up 7% points from 2018) show such strong support above? Answer: the public knows in its gut we have a problem with elections.
Note the 7% point increase in mail-in vote totals. It is not contested that GOP not only did not compete in mail-in voting, but rather focused instead of in-person voting. So it would seem a reasonable hypothesis that the growth in mail-in voting is overwhelmingly democrat voters, given that we know that mail-in voters in the past have been overwhelmingly Dem voters and that only Dems were working to drive up that vote in 2022. Imagine that. A party works to drive up turnout among a constituency that supports that party over 2-1 and then that party miraculously over-performs in the election. Who'd a thunk?
In an electorate closely divided along partisan lines.....how can a serious political party fail to compete for over a third of the total vote and expect to win.
You're conflating two different issues. Believing we have problems with election integrity and believing the election was stolen are two completely different things. The vast majority of Americans do not believe the 2020 election was stolen - 63% of them to be exact, according to a September NBC poll. I challenge you to find a poll which says 50-60% of Americans believe the 2020 election was stolen.
One can believe we have election integrity issues that must be addressed, and not believe the 2020 election was stolen from Trump. I fall squarely within that camp. But again, that is an entirely different issue from the bull**** trope that the election was stolen - and yes, that is a bull**** trope that the vast majority of Americans don't believe. Trump repeating that specious claim only makes him less popular than he already is (34% favorability rating accord to the most recent poll I've seen - but sure, he has a good chance to win it all in 2024).
...but if you use the softer wording "fraud affected the outcome" you get a different response = 55-60% range from Rasmussen, trending up most of the last two years and holding fast at its high. As I said, the election integrity issue is right in the middle of the field. Not at all a third-rail. Just depends on how you address it. The public does understand we have a problem.
It is smart for you and Oso to bang on the popularity ratings at this moment. Biden had a good week last week. And Trump is getting a lot of grief from his detractors. So it would hardly be unexpected to see one guy at a peak and the other at a nadir. But prior to last Tuesday, Trump's popularity equaled or exceeded Biden's consistently, and Trump defeated Biden in most head-to-head rematch polls. Where will those numbers go? Gas prices are going to soar. Economy is going to tank. Interest rates and unemployment rates will rise. Next year will be a bad year to be a Democrat. and Trump is now a declared candidate who can raise money and spend campaigning instead of having to shuffle it thru leadership PACs. The investigations will help as much as they hurt, at least initially. So I'd expect to see him rebound.
I wouldn't bet on that 34% number hanging around too long. But it could. We'll see.
If you look at Harvard-Harris dated 18Nov: Trump is +2 over Biden.
They also have him up 22pts over DeSantis in the primary race.
Politico had him up 14pts over DeSantis in the primary race.
So there are polls and then there are polls.
You gotta look at more than one.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
A few things...
Your position that 55-60% of Americans believe "fraud affected the outcome" of the 2020 election is simply erroneous. I've googled multiple polls and found none that say 55-60% of Americans believe that fraud affected the outcome of the election. Instead, that number has hovered around 32-40% for the last 2 years, depending on the poll, whereas the number of Americans who believe Biden legitimately won hovers around 55-65%. You need to check your polls and math again, as every one I have seen will prove that the vast majority of Americans do not believe that fraud affected the outcome, and never have. As a result, when Trump and his MAGA candidates keep saying the election was stolen, they give the Dems and the media the opportunity to label them extremists, election deniers and opponents of democracy. - to great effect I might add.
It's no surprise that polls have Trump up over DeSantis. Trump has had the bully pulpit for the last 6 years as president and former president. DeSantis hasn't had that kind of attention. But as always happens, once he does, I expect his numbers to increase significantly as well. We are already seeing the polls starting to break in DeSantis's favor in head to head matchups with Trump.
BTW, that 34% number for Trump was from September - before the midterm ass kicking.
Rasmussen has polled the fraud issue since right after the election. It climbed from 47 to 61 percent and has remained in it's higher range consistently (usually high-50s), using the wording "do you believe fraud affected outcome...." Rasmussen is one of those who missed this cycle, but they've been a top-3 firm the prior three cycles, so you cannot discard them as a crackpot outfit. Only when you poll the harder words like "stolen" do the numbers plummet. If you ask the question more softly, as Rasmussen does, and others do on the broader issue of election integrity, the numbers can approach 80% of voters being concerned about what's going on. None of that should cause any sober mind any cognitive dissonance. So many societal institutions now serve progressive interests rather than common good, why should elections be any different? The public is grappling with cognitive dissonance - they know there is a problem going on...what open mind could see what we see and not wonder "my God, this is a disaster"....but they're not ready to come to grips with the consequences of what it means to settle on the proposition that "somebody is stealing elections" so they are almost subconsciously using Hanlon's Razor to kick that particular can down the road.
I agree with your initial take on the Trump/DeSantis support polling. But note last week, hard on the heels of the election results, we had a few quick "inversion" polls (some of which I posted) that reflected heat of the moment, and possibly a little bit of spin that showed a collapsing Trump and a soaring Desantis. Polls do themselves become news from time to time..... But as the RCP averages at the link I posted show, Trump has not crumpled. May not have suffered much at all. I saw one yesterday, a national primary poll - which is in a sense useless since primaries are not "national" but nonetheless can often reflect what is on peoples' minds - that had Trump at Desantis tied (1 point apart in low 30's) with the rest of the results scattered out among a wide number of other contenders the largest of which was "undecided." My gut reaction is that poll, for all it's inapplicability in a practical sense, is probably closer to reality than anything else. At least, it fits my post election reassessment that DJT odds of winning went, in a momentus day, from unassailable to 50/50.
Key thing to remember is, the neverTrumper crowd will be noisy and every bit of news, good or bad, will be spun in worst possible ways, all pointing to looming disaster. You know, just like NYT, WAPO, eieio...did for the full 1st term of the 45th president. Your prediction of Trump's slow and steady demise to the benefit of RDS is a very reasonable assessment. Could very well happen. Also might not. This will be a very interesting race to watch, and Trump will be a VERY tough out.
