boognish_bear said:

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This will be a little strange to encounter the first time

JUST IN: Amazon $AMZN to test humanoid robots for deliveries. pic.twitter.com/Ur2GJ4Qo44

— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) June 5, 2025

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It will be interesting to see how far they have come in the problem solving department.

Oldbear83 said:

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"not new ones being created."

Really?

I brought up to clear examples in History. Automobiles replacing horse travel, and computers replacing secretarial pools. In both cases the new jobs created many more jobs, and the same will happen with AI once people get down to it.

The thing about AI though, is that while it can mimic human emotion and behavior, AI has not and will not replace humans to the degree AI fanboys imagine.

Look at Tesla. Musk made it cool to own an EV, but Teslas still don't have the market share of, say, Lexus or Ford pickups.

Or consider the Automats from the 1960s. Automated restaurants with a wide range of foods, you could get your food quick and as order with no human contact. They went out of business though, but restaurants, even drive-throughs, depend on human experiences.

AI is the shiny new object, but it will only be significantly used where it is cost-effective. I have seen a lot of buyer's remorse when companies find out the automation does not produce a more profitable result.

Pay attention to who is selling the hype.

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Past technology provided augmentation to human capability. AI and certainly AGI in the future is a cognitive and execution rival of humans. It's fundamentally different from anything before as it is capable of thought, autonomy and exponential self improvement. And don't assume it can't emulate human emotion. It's our fault as we've distanced ourselves from real connections via social media, forums like this, and our digital personas. It's actually one of the easier pitfalls for the tech to overcome. Just look at the AI content already easily created.

The future hope is that it will enable humans to do things never thought possible before, thus pushing us into new avenues of societal and economic opportunities. But broad displacement of current careers and work streams is guaranteed and at a rapid pace never seen before.

ATL Bear said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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"not new ones being created."

Really?

I brought up to clear examples in History. Automobiles replacing horse travel, and computers replacing secretarial pools. In both cases the new jobs created many more jobs, and the same will happen with AI once people get down to it.

The thing about AI though, is that while it can mimic human emotion and behavior, AI has not and will not replace humans to the degree AI fanboys imagine.

Look at Tesla. Musk made it cool to own an EV, but Teslas still don't have the market share of, say, Lexus or Ford pickups.

Or consider the Automats from the 1960s. Automated restaurants with a wide range of foods, you could get your food quick and as order with no human contact. They went out of business though, but restaurants, even drive-throughs, depend on human experiences.

AI is the shiny new object, but it will only be significantly used where it is cost-effective. I have seen a lot of buyer's remorse when companies find out the automation does not produce a more profitable result.

Pay attention to who is selling the hype.

---

Past technology provided augmentation to human capability. AI and certainly AGI in the future is a cognitive and execution rival of humans. It's fundamentally different from anything before as it is capable of thought, autonomy and exponential self improvement. And don't assume it can't emulate human emotion. It's our fault as we've distanced ourselves from real connections via social media, forums like this, and our digital personas. It's actually one of the easier pitfalls for the tech to overcome. Just look at the AI content already easily created.

The future hope is that it will enable humans to do things never thought possible before, thus pushing us into new avenues of societal and economic opportunities. But broad displacement of current careers and work streams is guaranteed and at a rapid pace never seen before.

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And those who remain employed are about to get hit with a tax increase!

if the human race does not change the trajectory of demographics, the rise of robots will be a godsend that will save the species, making it possible for a small fraction of the world's population to maintain the cumulative civilizational architecture of mankind. It would, however, drastically transform the consumables industry. Definitely do not invest in manufacturing of toilet paper manufacturing, for example.

Oldbear83 said:

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Sorry to bicker, but your post does not hold water.

AI is just now growing to a place where it can significantly affect the economy, so saying 'no new jobs have been created' is not supported at all. It's like deciding 2 minutes into a game that it's over.

I have presented two historical examples which are relevant here, and you are rejecting them because you apparently prefer panic.

There's a long way to go to see how this plays out, but there is absolutely no reason to believe there won't be people who rise to the challenge and create new opportunities. As for AI, others have pointed out that to make money you need customers, and AI cannot damage a significant portion of its consumer base and survive itself.

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You are not reading my posts at all.

I am not dismissing your historical examples. In fact I have expanded on them.

My point holds water though. What new jobs have been created by AI? Or in using your historical examples where entire new FIELDS were created what new fields have been created?

Your last paragraph I agree with. If too many companies switch to AI in large amounts all at once and a huge segment of the workforce is unemployed there won't be customers to buy things and the economy will take a nose dive.

The problem is that each company seems to be thinking in a bubble and not worried about that, at least based off what I have read and personal experience of family and friends who have been let go recently. Each company seems to be focused on how they can save money by replacing workers but as of now it seems that it has not impacted prices and the only ones who seem to be seeing this money saved are the corporate big wigs.

EatMoreSalmon said:

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boognish_bear said:

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This will be a little strange to encounter the first time

JUST IN: Amazon $AMZN to test humanoid robots for deliveries. pic.twitter.com/Ur2GJ4Qo44

— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) June 5, 2025

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It will be interesting to see how far they have come in the problem solving department.

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I agree that is the interesting thing. How will it be able to handle things that are not shown on the map like construction, wrecks, downed trees after storms or other things that block a road and cause a driver to have to take a detour. Or any of the other issues drivers encounter like dogs, people following trucks to steal, gates, signs, etc.

whiterock said:

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if the human race does not change the trajectory of demographics, the rise of robots will be a godsend that will save the species, making it possible for a small fraction of the world's population to maintain the cumulative civilizational architecture of mankind. It would, however, drastically transform the consumables industry. Definitely do not invest in manufacturing of toilet paper manufacturing, for example.

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If COVID and past weather related crises have shown us anything I would think toilet paper investments would be a good roll…..at least in the short term

I have been reading your posts cowboy, I just do not accept your assumptions.

Oldbear83 said:

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I have been reading your posts cowboy, I just do not accept your assumptions.

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They are not assumptions. They are facts. If they were assumptions you would be able to answer my questions. What jobs has AI created?

cowboycwr said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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I have been reading your posts cowboy, I just do not accept your assumptions.

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They are not assumptions. They are facts. If they were assumptions you would be able to answer my questions. What jobs has AI created?

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Yes, they are assumptions, especially anything based on projections .

And I am happy to discuss the topic, but I do not take part in interrogations.

My opinions are based on historical examples. You disagree which is fine, but there is no support for your assumptions, meaning you have to either provide evidence or argument to further support your position, and I will do the same for my position, and we may both gain insight;

or you can end up talking to yourself.

Oldbear83 said:

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cowboycwr said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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I have been reading your posts cowboy, I just do not accept your assumptions.

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They are not assumptions. They are facts. If they were assumptions you would be able to answer my questions. What jobs has AI created?

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Yes, they are assumptions, especially anything based on projections .

And I am happy to discuss the topic, but I do not take part in interrogations.

My opinions are based on historical examples. You disagree which is fine, but there is no support for your assumptions, meaning you have to either provide evidence or argument to further support your position, and I will do the same for my position, and we may both gain insight;

or you can end up talking to yourself.

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Dude, again, I have agreed with your historical examples and showed how they created new jobs. Then I have expanded on those to show how no new jobs have been created by AI.

However, you keep insisting that I have rejected your historical examples. But I have not.

I do not have assumptions. I have facts. The facts are AI has been replacing people in jobs but not creating new jobs. That is a fact. Not an assumption. Fact. I have provided evidence.

But all you want to do is to continue to claim I have rejected your historical examples. Which I have not.

"I have facts"

No, you have projections, aka assumptions.

Oldbear83 said:

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"I have facts"

No, you have projections, aka assumptions.

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No I have facts like this one. AI has cost people their job. That is a fact. That is not an assumption. If you think it is an assumption you must provide evidence to disprove it as a fact.

However, companies have laid off thousands of people and replaced them with AI. There have been numerous news stories about it. On all of the various media outlets.

That is a fact.

You cannot pretend it is not a fact.

cowboycwr said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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"I have facts"

No, you have projections, aka assumptions.

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No I have facts like this one. AI has cost people their job. That is a fact. That is not an assumption. If you think it is an assumption you must provide evidence to disprove it as a fact.

However, companies have laid off thousands of people and replaced them with AI. There have been numerous news stories about it. On all of the various media outlets.

That is a fact.

You cannot pretend it is not a fact.

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And that post proves you ignored History.

More horse handlers and stable workers lost their jobs when automobiles got going, than workers are losing now to AI.

Same for secretaries made obsolete by computers.

Now the current wave of change is going to be hard on the individuals who lose their jobs, but that's always been the case. Past recessions have done as much as we will see in the coming years.

But technology has always created more jobs than it cost, and the transition to AI-assisted work is going to take time, time that the AI advocates always underestimates. I have worked with a number of companies introducing AI, and the program has always come in over-budget and later than promised.

Now as to the effects of AI, you have fears which you have expressed, and there is grounds to some degree for all of them. But by simple logic, things which have not yet happened by definition cannot be called facts, but assumptions.

Also, making decisions out of fear is short-sighted and misses both opportunity and other more likely risks.

And by the way, the media is in the business of selling fear and worry. That's why they latched on to the Climate Change hoax, why they sold the Covid scare so heavily, not to mention damn near ten straight years of demonizing Trump (so much easier, you see, than going after Republicans one by one, to simply pretend Trump was/is the embodiment of all evil, racism, fascism, and whatever else Democrats want to claim). AI is the new bogeyman, and the media love it because it has no human face and so cannot defend itself, and there's no shortage of people to assure us that AI is evil and will kill us all.

Never mind the truth, fear is what sells.

I went to a doctor visit a couple days ago. When I was signing all the papers before the visit I noticed one of them was an agreement that I was ok with doctors using AI as a support. First time I've seen that.

Oldbear83 said:

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cowboycwr said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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"I have facts"

No, you have projections, aka assumptions.

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No I have facts like this one. AI has cost people their job. That is a fact. That is not an assumption. If you think it is an assumption you must provide evidence to disprove it as a fact.

However, companies have laid off thousands of people and replaced them with AI. There have been numerous news stories about it. On all of the various media outlets.

That is a fact.

You cannot pretend it is not a fact.

---

And that post proves you ignored History.

More horse handlers and stable workers lost their jobs when automobiles got going, than workers are losing now to AI.

Same for secretaries made obsolete by computers.

Now the current wave of change is going to be hard on the individuals who lose their jobs, but that's always been the case. Past recessions have done as much as we will see in the coming years.

But technology has always created more jobs than it cost, and the transition to AI-assisted work is going to take time, time that the AI advocates always underestimates. I have worked with a number of companies introducing AI, and the program has always come in over-budget and later than promised.

Now as to the effects of AI, you have fears which you have expressed, and there is grounds to some degree for all of them. But by simple logic, things which have not yet happened by definition cannot be called facts, but assumptions.

Also, making decisions out of fear is short-sighted and misses both opportunity and other more likely risks.

And by the way, the media is in the business of selling fear and worry. That's why they latched on to the Climate Change hoax, why they sold the Covid scare so heavily, not to mention damn near ten straight years of demonizing Trump (so much easier, you see, than going after Republicans one by one, to simply pretend Trump was/is the embodiment of all evil, racism, fascism, and whatever else Democrats want to claim). AI is the new bogeyman, and the media love it because it has no human face and so cannot defend itself, and there's no shortage of people to assure us that AI is evil and will kill us all.

Never mind the truth, fear is what sells.

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Lol. No it does not prove I ignored history. Not at all.

In fact you are the one ignoring history. When the automobile was introduced there were large groups that were out of work. But immediately as the automobile was introduced there were MASSIVE amounts of new jobs created. Starting with the production of the very thing that put those other careers out of work.

That HAS NOT happened with AI.

The media is not pushing fear when they are reporting that almost 7,000 people at Microsoft lost their job to AI. That is a fact. Not fear. Fact.

When the media reports other companies laying off workers it is not fear. It is facts.

What would be fear are the posts others have made in this thread about predictions for massive layoffs or replacement of jobs by AI in the next few years. Those are not currently happening. Those are predictions and lean towards the fear. But those are not what I am talking about. I am talking about the people currently losing their jobs. That is fact.

I am not talking about things that have not happened. I am talking about things that HAVE happened. The people who have ALREADY lost jobs. That is a fact.

You are ignoring those to try and claim I have no facts.

You are repeating the same shrill panic as before.

We always emerged from these changes stronger. That will be the case here.

Stay away from cliffs and sharp objects while you calm down.

Oldbear83 said:

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You are repeating the same shrill panic as before.

We always emerged from these changes stronger. That will be the case here.

Stay away from cliffs and sharp objects while you calm down.

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Lol. I am not repeating panic. I am repeating facts. But you have refused to read or comprehend my posts.

Fact: people have lost their jobs to AI. That is not panic. That is reality.

When will an AI RoboCop be used in LA so it can be set in fire?

EatMoreSalmon said:

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When will an AI RoboCop be used in LA so it can be set in fire?

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I remember when there were the police shootings in Dallas in 2016 the Dallas police used a robot to set explosives to kill the perpetrator. I think at the time that was unprecedented.

I don't know if there have been other instances since.

cowboycwr said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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You are repeating the same shrill panic as before.

We always emerged from these changes stronger. That will be the case here.

Stay away from cliffs and sharp objects while you calm down.

---

Lol. I am not repeating panic. I am repeating facts. But you have refused to read or comprehend my posts.

Fact: people have lost their jobs to AI. That is not panic. That is reality.

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That scraping sound you hear, and that long set of furrows in the ground, is you moving the goal posts cowboy.

No one has denied that AI has cost some people jobs. In fact, were you paying attention you would have recalled that my two historical examples started with many people who lost their jobs to a new technology, but in the end technology provided many more jobs, and better ones.

So yes, there is present pain and I don't discount it for the people who suffer loss in these times of uncertainty. But you cannot let fear and doubt drive your vision, as you have up to now.

Yes, you are panicking, ignoring all of History, all the facts of Commerce and Trade, which have always been built on relationships.

You cling to the fears of people who claim terrible things will happen to all human work, but nothing yet has happened beyond the normal fluctuations of change and trend, which means you are listening to the horror stories of potential at worst, which also means you are failing to consider the possible upside.

Haven't any of you watched Metropolis? We knew what was gonna happen a century ago. Maria is the future!

Assassin said:

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Haven't any of you watched Metropolis? We knew what was gonna happen a century ago. Maria is the future!

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The Cybertruck was supposed to be the future.

So was New Coke.

So was the Leisure Suit.

So was the Edsel.

And so on, and so on ...

Oldbear83 said:

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Assassin said:

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Haven't any of you watched Metropolis? We knew what was gonna happen a century ago. Maria is the future!

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The Cybertruck was supposed to be the future.

So was New Coke.

So was the Leisure Suit.

So was the Edsel.

And so on, and so on ...

---

Assassin said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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Assassin said:

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Haven't any of you watched Metropolis? We knew what was gonna happen a century ago. Maria is the future!

---

The Cybertruck was supposed to be the future.

So was New Coke.

So was the Leisure Suit.

So was the Edsel.

And so on, and so on ...

---

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So that's why that Kent kid went there to work?

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Amazon $AMZN announces $20 billion US investment to "advance AI innovation."

— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) June 9, 2025

Oldbear83 said:

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cowboycwr said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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You are repeating the same shrill panic as before.

We always emerged from these changes stronger. That will be the case here.

Stay away from cliffs and sharp objects while you calm down.

---

Lol. I am not repeating panic. I am repeating facts. But you have refused to read or comprehend my posts.

Fact: people have lost their jobs to AI. That is not panic. That is reality.

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That scraping sound you hear, and that long set of furrows in the ground, is you moving the goal posts cowboy.

No one has denied that AI has cost some people jobs. In fact, were you paying attention you would have recalled that my two historical examples started with many people who lost their jobs to a new technology, but in the end technology provided many more jobs, and better ones.

So yes, there is present pain and I don't discount it for the people who suffer loss in these times of uncertainty. But you cannot let fear and doubt drive your vision, as you have up to now.

Yes, you are panicking, ignoring all of History, all the facts of Commerce and Trade, which have always been built on relationships.

You cling to the fears of people who claim terrible things will happen to all human work, but nothing yet has happened beyond the normal fluctuations of change and trend, which means you are listening to the horror stories of potential at worst, which also means you are failing to consider the possible upside.

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I have not moved the goalposts. My argument has been the same but since you refuse to read anything in my posts beyond the first sentence or two you have missed it.

As I have pointed out repeatedly in your historical examples that when that new technology came out there were people who lost their jobs but there were also new jobs created immediately. That has not happened with AI.

Take your automobile example. It put a lot of people out of work in the horse industry. But it immediately created new jobs for oil, automobile factories, gas/service stations, tires, leather/cloth for seats, etc.

But again that has not happened for AI. There has not been a massive introduction of new jobs connected with AI.

I'm going to make a prediction that within 10 years a UPS (or equivalent) delivery service truck will pull up to my house driverless and a robot will come out of the back and drop off a box on my front porch.

Your posts proves a different truth from what you claim, cowboy.

Amazon is starting something like that this year. Or trying to.

You are ignoring the time aspect as well. Changes take years, a decade or more, to show up to any degree. Demanding instant results works for microwave popcorn, not Economic shifts.

Oldbear83 said:

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Your posts proves a different truth from what you claim, cowboy.

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Lol no they don't.

Oldbear83 said:

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You are ignoring the time aspect as well. Changes take years, a decade or more, to show up to any degree. Demanding instant results works for microwave popcorn, not Economic shifts.

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No I am not ignoring the time aspect. You are the one doing so. Changes do not take years.

In every historical example of a new technology replacing human jobs there are jobs created immediately by the new technology. Often in the production and maintenance of that technology. But not with AI.

cowboycwr said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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Your posts proves a different truth from what you claim, cowboy.

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Lol no they don't.

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Enjoy your alternate 'reality', then

cowboycwr said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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You are ignoring the time aspect as well. Changes take years, a decade or more, to show up to any degree. Demanding instant results works for microwave popcorn, not Economic shifts.

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No I am not ignoring the time aspect. You are the one doing so. Changes do not take years.

In every historical example of a new technology replacing human jobs there are jobs created immediately by the new technology. Often in the production and maintenance of that technology. But not with AI.

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You can keep saying that. Won't make it any more true, but knock yourself out.