The future automation of the workforce

64,638 Views | 1104 Replies | Last: 7 hrs ago by cowboycwr
boognish_bear
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cowboycwr
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boognish_bear said:




How are doctors going to get replaced by AI? That one I just don't get. Won't it need to be a combination of AI and robots?

I could maybe see how at a family doc AI could take over with a nurse getting all the vitals and info and AI determining what is wrong. But for surgeries, ER, etc, it seems (to me) that AI can't replace the people doing those things
boognish_bear
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cowboycwr said:

boognish_bear said:




How are doctors going to get replaced by AI? That one I just don't get. Won't it need to be a combination of AI and robots?

I could maybe see how at a family doc AI could take over with a nurse getting all the vitals and info and AI determining what is wrong. But for surgeries, ER, etc, it seems (to me) that AI can't replace the people doing those things


Agree....it's going to have to be some combination. Maybe instead of 6 or 7 seven humans in the room for a big surgery it's just 1 or 2.

If I'm going under the knife i want there to at least be some human presence in the room.
Redbrickbear
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boognish_bear said:





China is gonna need lots of AI powered vehicles to replace the workers they won't have….



boognish_bear
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That musculoskeletal one is nightmare fuel



boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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LIB,MR BEARS
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3D printed homes


https://www.facebook.com/share/r/1AuXwKidqK/?mibextid=UalRPS
historian
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boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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LIB,MR BEARS said:

3D printed homes


https://www.facebook.com/share/r/1AuXwKidqK/?mibextid=UalRPS


I can't believe he was able to buy that printer for only about $500,000. Wonder how much the materials cost to make a house.
boognish_bear
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LIB,MR BEARS
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boognish_bear said:

LIB,MR BEARS said:

3D printed homes


https://www.facebook.com/share/r/1AuXwKidqK/?mibextid=UalRPS


I can't believe he was able to buy that printer for only about $500,000. Wonder how much the materials cost to make a house.


That amount surprised me as well.

Maybe that is the basic piece of equipment and the operational software is not included in that price. The machine itself doesn't look that complicated.
boognish_bear
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BearFan33
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Seeing all the advancements I'm thinking the US postal service could definitely benefit

Sorting the mail done by robot. Delivery all done by robot (24 hours, seven days a week).
Assassin
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BearFan33 said:

Seeing all the advancements I'm thinking the US postal service could definitely benefit

Sorting the mail done by robot. Delivery all done by robot (24 hours, seven days a week).
Will dogs still chase robot mailmen?
"One kills a man, one is an assassin; one kills millions, one is a conqueror".
LIB,MR BEARS
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Assassin said:

BearFan33 said:

Seeing all the advancements I'm thinking the US postal service could definitely benefit

Sorting the mail done by robot. Delivery all done by robot (24 hours, seven days a week).
Will dogs still chase robot mailmen?

Ruh Row George

https://images.app.goo.gl/UvijFzDjaRy9yY4JA
whiterock
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boognish_bear said:

Ai and robot use in the military brings up another ethical angle...it's when it feels like we started getting into Terminator territory.



Elon is right in concept but the AF has planned for his caution a lot more than he apparently realizes. It's a false dilemma to suggest we should dump manned aircraft for drones. At least not yet.

Stealth aircraft will increasingly become "bomb trucks" and c&c nodes for drone swarms. To understand the significance of that, look to the recent Uke drone attacks on Russian strategic air fleet using 18-wheelers clandestinely outfitted as "bomb trucks" for FPV drones. Big drones have the same survivability problem that manned aircraft; small ones are survivable but have severe limitations on range and payload. Answer: load up 5th & 6th Gen aircraft to carry the swarms in close "enough."

There is a reason the AF cancelled the F-22 and bought a bunch of upgraded F-15's. F-15 carries the munitions at standoff range while the F35 goes in close and paints the target (for dumber ergo cheaper munitions). Same for drone swarms. AF is already doing exercises on drone swarms as adjunct to air dominance. Taking that into strategic and tactical support roles is lot a long leap.
cowboycwr
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boognish_bear said:




I don't like the idea of it but if there aren't a ton of new jobs for all the people replaced by AI it will be a necessity and the tax will have to be on this big companies that make billions with a handful of employees after AI lets them lay everyone off.
Oldbear83
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cowboycwr said:

boognish_bear said:




I don't like the idea of it but if there aren't a ton of new jobs for all the people replaced by AI it will be a necessity and the tax will have to be on this big companies that make billions with a handful of employees after AI lets them lay everyone off.
Think this through.

This is how you destroy economies around the world.
boognish_bear
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Oldbear83 said:

cowboycwr said:

boognish_bear said:




I don't like the idea of it but if there aren't a ton of new jobs for all the people replaced by AI it will be a necessity and the tax will have to be on this big companies that make billions with a handful of employees after AI lets them lay everyone off.
Think this through.

This is how you destroy economies around the world.


It's a weird thing to think about...but what do you do if there just aren't enough jobs for people.

Some can move over to trades… But there is a limit to how many plumbers and HVAC people we need.
Oldbear83
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boognish_bear said:

Oldbear83 said:

cowboycwr said:

boognish_bear said:




I don't like the idea of it but if there aren't a ton of new jobs for all the people replaced by AI it will be a necessity and the tax will have to be on this big companies that make billions with a handful of employees after AI lets them lay everyone off.
Think this through.

This is how you destroy economies around the world.


It's a weird thing to think about...but what do you do if there just aren't enough jobs for people.

Some can move over to trades… But there is a limit to how many plumbers and HVAC people we need.
Well, look at History. Every so often there are major changes in how people live and work. My ancestors, for example, left the highlands of Scotland to live in the city, because sheep and loom work amounted to slow starvation. Similarly, millions of women found themselves forced to find new work when computers abolished the secretarial pool, and the rise of the automobile eviscerated men who have worked with horses their whole lives, from stables to carriages and all the support trades like saddles and blacksmithing.

It was always coming, the next big seismic shift in how people live.

Now the trendy thing is to say how AI is going to wipe out virtually all human work. But that's not true, if you think it through. I can go through the weeds of it if you want, but I'm going to keep this as succinct as possible and just presume you can discover the reasons for yourself why AI has limits to its growth and application.

Then there is the hobgoblin of UBI.

OK, so the first problem is that the government is going to run anything like UBI, and while some are worse than others, depending on the government for your food, shelter and so on has always worked out very badly for the people involved. Not least because government never seems to have a plan for someone to get out from that dependency. And there are a LOT of people in government who would just love to bring back serfdom, which what UBI would do.

Again, I could walk you through the ways UBI would have to work, so that any sane person would rather find a new vocation than hand his or her life over to the soulless ghouls in political office.

boognish_bear
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Oldbear83 said:

boognish_bear said:

Oldbear83 said:

cowboycwr said:

boognish_bear said:




I don't like the idea of it but if there aren't a ton of new jobs for all the people replaced by AI it will be a necessity and the tax will have to be on this big companies that make billions with a handful of employees after AI lets them lay everyone off.
Think this through.

This is how you destroy economies around the world.


It's a weird thing to think about...but what do you do if there just aren't enough jobs for people.

Some can move over to trades… But there is a limit to how many plumbers and HVAC people we need.
Well, look at History. Every so often there are major changes in how people live and work. My ancestors, for example, left the highlands of Scotland to live in the city, because sheep and loom work amounted to slow starvation. Similarly, millions of women found themselves forced to find new work when computers abolished the secretarial pool, and the rise of the automobile eviscerated men who have worked with horses their whole lives, from stables to carriages and all the support trades like saddles and blacksmithing.

It was always coming, the next big seismic shift in how people live.

Now the trendy thing is to say how AI is going to wipe out virtually all human work. But that's not true, if you think it through. I can go through the weeds of it if you want, but I'm going to keep this as succinct as possible and just presume you can discover the reasons for yourself why AI has limits to its growth and application.

Then there is the hobgoblin of UBI.

OK, so the first problem is that the government is going to run anything like UBI, and while some are worse than others, depending on the government for your food, shelter and so on has always worked out very badly for the people involved. Not least because government never seems to have a plan for someone to get out from that dependency. And there are a LOT of people in government who would just love to bring back serfdom, which what UBI would do.

Again, I could walk you through the ways UBI would have to work, so that any sane person would rather find a new vocation than hand his or her life over to the soulless ghouls in political office.




I wasn't really trying to make the point that UBI was the answer...but more just thinking out loud that with advances in Ai we may face a job shortage in the future and we will have to have some type of solution.

Mankind has repeatedly seen jobs become obsolete or redundant through technological advances. So far new jobs have come up in the wake that seem to even out potential job loss.

I've just heard many futurists speculate that Ai is a different animal and many more jobs will become obsolete in a shorter amount of time than we've ever seen before. They project this growth and consequential job loss is more exponential.

Maybe the sky isn't really falling...time will tell.
Oldbear83
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boognish_bear said:

Oldbear83 said:

boognish_bear said:

Oldbear83 said:

cowboycwr said:

boognish_bear said:




I don't like the idea of it but if there aren't a ton of new jobs for all the people replaced by AI it will be a necessity and the tax will have to be on this big companies that make billions with a handful of employees after AI lets them lay everyone off.
Think this through.

This is how you destroy economies around the world.


It's a weird thing to think about...but what do you do if there just aren't enough jobs for people.

Some can move over to trades… But there is a limit to how many plumbers and HVAC people we need.
Well, look at History. Every so often there are major changes in how people live and work. My ancestors, for example, left the highlands of Scotland to live in the city, because sheep and loom work amounted to slow starvation. Similarly, millions of women found themselves forced to find new work when computers abolished the secretarial pool, and the rise of the automobile eviscerated men who have worked with horses their whole lives, from stables to carriages and all the support trades like saddles and blacksmithing.

It was always coming, the next big seismic shift in how people live.

Now the trendy thing is to say how AI is going to wipe out virtually all human work. But that's not true, if you think it through. I can go through the weeds of it if you want, but I'm going to keep this as succinct as possible and just presume you can discover the reasons for yourself why AI has limits to its growth and application.

Then there is the hobgoblin of UBI.

OK, so the first problem is that the government is going to run anything like UBI, and while some are worse than others, depending on the government for your food, shelter and so on has always worked out very badly for the people involved. Not least because government never seems to have a plan for someone to get out from that dependency. And there are a LOT of people in government who would just love to bring back serfdom, which what UBI would do.

Again, I could walk you through the ways UBI would have to work, so that any sane person would rather find a new vocation than hand his or her life over to the soulless ghouls in political office.




I wasn't really trying to make the point that UBI was the answer...but more just thinking out loud that with advances in Ai we may face a job shortage in the future and we will have to have some type of solution.

Mankind has repeatedly seen jobs become obsolete or redundant through technological advances. So far new jobs have come up in the wake that seem to even out potential job loss.

I've just heard many futurists speculate that Ai is a different animal and many more jobs will become obsolete in a shorter amount of time than we've ever seen before. They project this growth and consequential job loss is more exponential.

Maybe the sky isn't really falling...time will tell.
Your last line was kind of my point. Throughout history there have always been new jobs, and it will happen here, even if we can't tell what it will be.

But most business depends on human interaction. Just because someone can find new ways to turn an experience into a vending machine does not mean it will succeed.

Keep in mind as well, that the companies making AI will at some point be focused on monetizing their invention. AI will get more expensive even as it gets more specialized. That's another point from history that people ignore, preferring worrying about a dystopia which will never really arrive instead of looking for the better options out there.

Some great ideas will be made into wonderful opportunities. Look for 'em.
cowboycwr
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Oldbear83 said:

cowboycwr said:

boognish_bear said:




I don't like the idea of it but if there aren't a ton of new jobs for all the people replaced by AI it will be a necessity and the tax will have to be on this big companies that make billions with a handful of employees after AI lets them lay everyone off.
Think this through.

This is how you destroy economies around the world.


How would it destroy economies? If no one is working because of AI and robots only a select few would be making money.

There obviously would have to be a lot of details worked out but if there are not enough jobs people have to have a way to survive
cowboycwr
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Oldbear83 said:

boognish_bear said:

Oldbear83 said:

cowboycwr said:

boognish_bear said:




I don't like the idea of it but if there aren't a ton of new jobs for all the people replaced by AI it will be a necessity and the tax will have to be on this big companies that make billions with a handful of employees after AI lets them lay everyone off.
Think this through.

This is how you destroy economies around the world.


It's a weird thing to think about...but what do you do if there just aren't enough jobs for people.

Some can move over to trades… But there is a limit to how many plumbers and HVAC people we need.
Well, look at History. Every so often there are major changes in how people live and work. My ancestors, for example, left the highlands of Scotland to live in the city, because sheep and loom work amounted to slow starvation. Similarly, millions of women found themselves forced to find new work when computers abolished the secretarial pool, and the rise of the automobile eviscerated men who have worked with horses their whole lives, from stables to carriages and all the support trades like saddles and blacksmithing.

It was always coming, the next big seismic shift in how people live.

Now the trendy thing is to say how AI is going to wipe out virtually all human work. But that's not true, if you think it through. I can go through the weeds of it if you want, but I'm going to keep this as succinct as possible and just presume you can discover the reasons for yourself why AI has limits to its growth and application.

Then there is the hobgoblin of UBI.

OK, so the first problem is that the government is going to run anything like UBI, and while some are worse than others, depending on the government for your food, shelter and so on has always worked out very badly for the people involved. Not least because government never seems to have a plan for someone to get out from that dependency. And there are a LOT of people in government who would just love to bring back serfdom, which what UBI would do.

Again, I could walk you through the ways UBI would have to work, so that any sane person would rather find a new vocation than hand his or her life over to the soulless ghouls in political office.




The problem is that throughout history as technology has made certain jobs disappear other jobs replaced them.

Take your horse example.

All those jobs were lost but you had new jobs in mechanics, factories for the various parts, tire shops, gas stations, oil industry, etc.

This time though the new technology is replacing jobs without new fields being created. Whether it is for AI or robots the jobs are just being replaced, not new ones being created.

Oldbear83
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"not new ones being created."

Really?

I brought up to clear examples in History. Automobiles replacing horse travel, and computers replacing secretarial pools. In both cases the new jobs created many more jobs, and the same will happen with AI once people get down to it.

The thing about AI though, is that while it can mimic human emotion and behavior, AI has not and will not replace humans to the degree AI fanboys imagine.

Look at Tesla. Musk made it cool to own an EV, but Teslas still don't have the market share of, say, Lexus or Ford pickups.

Or consider the Automats from the 1960s. Automated restaurants with a wide range of foods, you could get your food quick and as order with no human contact. They went out of business though, but restaurants, even drive-throughs, depend on human experiences.

AI is the shiny new object, but it will only be significantly used where it is cost-effective. I have seen a lot of buyer's remorse when companies find out the automation does not produce a more profitable result.

Pay attention to who is selling the hype.
EatMoreSalmon
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A high unemployment rate at depression era levels and worse would hamper money making for all if it lasted very long. Producers of consumer goods need consumers. AI is not a consumer.
Henry Ford had the right idea of paying his newfangled automobile assembly line workers well so they could afford what they were making.
boognish_bear
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cowboycwr
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Oldbear83 said:

"not new ones being created."

Really?

I brought up to clear examples in History. Automobiles replacing horse travel, and computers replacing secretarial pools. In both cases the new jobs created many more jobs, and the same will happen with AI once people get down to it.

The thing about AI though, is that while it can mimic human emotion and behavior, AI has not and will not replace humans to the degree AI fanboys imagine.

Look at Tesla. Musk made it cool to own an EV, but Teslas still don't have the market share of, say, Lexus or Ford pickups.

Or consider the Automats from the 1960s. Automated restaurants with a wide range of foods, you could get your food quick and as order with no human contact. They went out of business though, but restaurants, even drive-throughs, depend on human experiences.

AI is the shiny new object, but it will only be significantly used where it is cost-effective. I have seen a lot of buyer's remorse when companies find out the automation does not produce a more profitable result.

Pay attention to who is selling the hype.


You didn't read my post clearly or you misunderstood.

In history yes new jobs have been created. I even talked about it in my post.

But right now that is NOT happening. People are being laid off because AI is replacing jobs. But there are not enough new jobs being created to give those people jobs.

AI will replace humans to the levels imagined. And beyond. Removing the human emotion and behavior is part of the attraction for AI in some fields.

Your restaurant example is bad as most restaurants (especially fast food) are moving to kiosks. Even sit down restaurants have begun moving to little kiosks to pay or even order from at the table. Go beyond restaurants and many places are using kiosks or self check outs.

AI will be replacing a ton of jobs. Robots will replace even more. Combined that is where the problem will be as there will not be enough new jobs created for the people getting replaced.
Oldbear83
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Sorry to bicker, but your post does not hold water.

AI is just now growing to a place where it can significantly affect the economy, so saying 'no new jobs have been created' is not supported at all. It's like deciding 2 minutes into a game that it's over.

I have presented two historical examples which are relevant here, and you are rejecting them because you apparently prefer panic.

There's a long way to go to see how this plays out, but there is absolutely no reason to believe there won't be people who rise to the challenge and create new opportunities. As for AI, others have pointed out that to make money you need customers, and AI cannot damage a significant portion of its consumer base and survive itself.


boognish_bear
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This will be a little strange to encounter the first time

 
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