Initial CFP bracket of 2024

36,922 Views | 633 Replies | Last: 3 hrs ago by boognish_bear
historian
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EvilTroyAndAbed said:

historian said:

Valid point.

However, most SEC teams are mediocre like Aggie, Ole Miss, & South Carolina. They have little chance of competing for a conference title in any year. There are only a few at the top who will do that regularly, over the past decade that was Bama, LSU, & Georgia. Without Saban, Bama is in doubt & LSU has declined since their natty. Even when the mediocre teams seem to be having a good year, it usually falls apart in November. This certainly is the case with the Aggies who have never played in the SEC title game. The mediocre teams will have limited opportunities to play the leaders each year.


Ole Miss is mediocre? Do you watch football?

I watched little or no Ole Miss football this season. My conclusion is based strictly on their record: they have beaten no one of consequence except Georgia & they lost to Kentucky. I'm merely holding them to the same standard as everyone else. I am unwilling to elevate them for their conference affiliation. Maybe they should be ranked in the 20s because of the one good win but no higher. Same with Alabama & SC. No 3 loss team should be anywhere near sniffing the playoffs.
FLBear5630
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boognish_bear said:


Yet, when it came to playing a real team they got blown out.
historian
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IowaBear said:

No, he doesn't. Love Historian but he's admitted he doesn't watch anyone outside the B12. Which is perfectly fine. But it throws his outrageous takes about other teams/leagues out the window.

I do watch some other games, but rarely. There is nothing outrageous about looking at a team's record to see who they have beaten & who had beaten them. And I do think a 10 win team should be ranked for that accomplishment alone regardless of conference because it's so difficult to do.

I do not believe in stacking the playoff brackets with SEC or Big 10 teams just because they played a bunch of mediocrities in conference (including teams that were ranked early in the season solely because if their conference), not to mention ooc games. For years, this is the way the pundits, and especially the committee, treated the Big 12 with a negative bias against the Big 12 & the lamest excuses for their biases. I believe in equal treatment for all.
historian
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whitetrash said:

EvilTroyAndAbed said:

historian said:

Valid point.

However, most SEC teams are mediocre like Aggie, Ole Miss, & South Carolina. They have little chance of competing for a conference title in any year. There are only a few at the top who will do that regularly, over the past decade that was Bama, LSU, & Georgia. Without Saban, Bama is in doubt & LSU has declined since their natty. Even when the mediocre teams seem to be having a good year, it usually falls apart in November. This certainly is the case with the Aggies who have never played in the SEC title game. The mediocre teams will have limited opportunities to play the leaders each year.


Ole Miss is mediocre? Do you watch football?



They are undefeated in hypothetical matchups.

That often happens with the SEC mediocrities. Look at the Aggies.
IowaBear
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Your first paragraph contradicts itself. You said a team should be ranked based on beating ranked teams and winning X amount of games. I've made it clear that ole Miss losing to FL should eliminate them. But that's farrrrrr from a mediocre team. To suggest otherwise implies you don't actually watch the games at all.
historian
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IowaBear said:

I'd have to double check but I'm almost certain the ACC also plays 4 non con games too

True. But the ACC is not elevated to special status because of Clemson & Florida State the way the SEC is for Bama & Georgia. Yes, I know there are other SEC teams that do well each year, some very well (Tennessee) but not consistently. And when Georgia loses to one of them it reduces their luster just like when Texas or Oklahoma lost to Tech, K State, Iowa State, or Kansas.
IowaBear
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Bingo… this furthers my point that SOS is meaningless now. I hope we ax the Auburn/SMU games and fill with mid G4 teams
historian
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whitetrash said:

IowaBear said:

I'd have to double check but I'm almost certain the ACC also plays 4 non con games too


Correct. And as a result 13 of 16 SECSECSEC and 14 of 18 ACC teams are bowl eligible, including OU and Cal who both went 2-6 in conference play.

B1G got 12 of 18 bowl eligible, but only Nebraska qualified at 3-6. Big12 only had 9 of 16 bowl eligible, but all 9 had a winning conference record.

That winning conference record means something, especially with the parity in the Big 12.
historian
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boognish_bear said:



With 3 losses, neither should be in. Not when other teams have 10 or 11 wins.
Aberzombie1892
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IowaBear said:

Bingo… this furthers my point that SOS is meaningless now. I hope we ax the Auburn/SMU games and fill with mid G4 teams


SOS wasn't meaningful in the four team CFP - wins/losses and advanced stats were - so they are just continuing that trend now that the field has expanded.

Separately, it is a -bit- surprising that Ohio State and Indiana seemingly haven't been punished for not scheduling an out of conference P5ish team given that teams in the past were punished for that in various ways. Maybe such punishment will play a role in the final CFP ranking (like the Baylor over TCU switch in the final CFP rankings in 2014), but, even if they do, a 1 loss P4 would be a lock - Indiana - and the bottom of the field is so suspect that Ohio State would almost certainly still make it unless the committee wants to put a 3 loss P4 non championship game loser in.
IowaBear
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The committee came out MULTIPLE years and talked about how important SOS is. Apparently you live under a rock…
Let's just be honest, you prefer a 16 team playoff of B10/SEC only teams. No need to insinuate otherwise. You've played your hand.
Indiana in the playoff is a ****ing joke… they've beaten absolutely no one. The one team they played with a pulse stomped a mud hole in them. They're in because they play in the B10
historian
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IowaBear said:

Your first paragraph contradicts itself. You said a team should be ranked based on beating ranked teams and winning X amount of games. I've made it clear that ole Miss losing to FL should eliminate them. But that's farrrrrr from a mediocre team. To suggest otherwise implies you don't actually watch the games at all.

It's not a contradiction, it's a first & second priority. Obviously, teams with worse records should be ranked lower and sos matters but there is a lot of subjectivity in those decisions.

My first statement is that I hadn't watched a lot of those games. I did watch some of them, or at least parts. I agree that Ole Miss should not be in the playoffs. Maybe the Florida loss disqualifies them maybe it's the 3 losses total. Either reason is sufficient.

I'm defining "mediocre" more broadly: in the middle of the pack in conference standings. Ole Miss is tied with five others for 4th place. So how do they rank compared to Bama, Aggies, SC, LSU, & Mizzou. OK, I will grant you that they are near the top since they are probably the best of that group. So maybe they should be the first one out. But my main point remains: they don't belong in the playoffs. They might be the best argument against 4 SEC teams getting in.
IowaBear
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There's a huge difference between calling teams mediocre and saying they don't belong in the playoff though. By saying Ole Miss as an example is mediocre you're quite literally calling all but maybe 1 team in the country (Oregon) mediocre. Those are still very good teams. They just don't deserve to be in the playoffs. Hell I maintain that Indiana at 11-1 doesn't belong.
historian
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Now you're exaggerating: saying a 9-3 team with only one meaningful victory mediocre is NOT the same thing as saying that about all the 10 & 11 win teams.
IowaBear
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So let me get this straight… you believe Ole Miss, Bama etc are mediocre at 9-3 yet you would classify Iowa St, BYU, Indiana as what?? Really good teams? If that's the case you simply do not pay attention or you have blinders on. The only one exaggerating here is you by making the moronic mediocre statement. You followed it up by admitting you don't actually watch any of those teams.
Also OM has beaten 2 teams currently in the top 15 so again proving you pay zero attention to anything not B12 related
Aberzombie1892
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IowaBear said:

The committee came out MULTIPLE years and talked about how important SOS is. Apparently you live under a rock…
Let's just be honest, you prefer a 16 team playoff of B10/SEC only teams. No need to insinuate otherwise. You've played your hand.
Indiana in the playoff is a ****ing joke… they've beaten absolutely no one. The one team they played with a pulse stomped a mud hole in them. They're in because they play in the B10
Who cares what they say if they actually do something different? To rephrase, did a 2 loss team ever make the 4 team playoff over a 1 loss team because it played a tougher schedule? Of course not because they haven't cared about SOS enough for it to supersede W/Ls and advanced metrics, and there is no reason (yet) to believe that they would change that now just because the field has expanded.

The only area where they massaged things may be the -order- of teams, but who does vs. who doesn't make will seemingly remain consistent until we see them do something contradictory*.

* For reference, 2023 FSU was left out due to advanced metrics showing how well it performed before vs. after the QB injury. That being said, 2023 FSU would have been a lock in the expanded field.
historian
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You obviously didn't read what I wrote. Don't put words in my mouth.
IowaBear
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I did read what you wrote. You keep blabbering about all these SEC teams being mediocre. And that in itself tells everyone you either don't pay attention or have an expensive pair of blinders on.
Let me ask it this way, do you consider this 8-4 BU squad mediocre? Your answer will be very very very telling
historian
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Now who is blabbering?

To be honest, Baylor in 2024 is in the middle group of the Big 12 in the standings: 5th out of 16. It's still better than any of us expected when we were 2-4. Within our conference, our position is comparable to Alabama, Ole Miss, & SC is in theirs. But they have better records overall. They deserve to be ranked, in the 20s maybe, but not in the playoffs. Not when there are other teams with better records.

I feel like I'm repeating myself. You seem to be obsessed with my use of the term "mediocre". I don't know why since it's a relative term & imprecise.
BaylorGrad09
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What I don't really understand is how Alabama or Ole Miss can sit at home on championship weekend and end up hosting a playoff game while one of Arizona State or Iowa State will play in the Big12 Championship with more wins than either of Ole Miss or Bama, and one will be left out of the playoff while the other goes on the road for their playoff game.

Getting into the championship game in a P4 conference should automatically leap front of other P4 teams with worse records who won't play for their conference championship.
IowaBear
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Neither Bama nor Ole Miss are getting in much less hosting
BluesBear
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GoodOleBaylorLine said:

An 11-1 Indiana team would deserve to be in the 12 team playoff. And frankly, even though they are from a power conference, I would enjoy having a fresh face in the mix. That is hopefully what the expanded playoff provides.

A 10-2 Penn State team is more debatable. Depends on who else is in that 9-12 range.
I have to disagree. Indiana did not beat a single ranked team this year. Got blown out in their loss and beat only 1 team who finished with a record better than .500

4-8, 4-8, 5-7, 5-7, 4-8, 4-8, 6-6, 6-6, 5-7, 7-5, 10-2, 1-11....

Baylor played 3 ranked teams and 6 of their opponents finished with a record better than .500

10-3, 5-7, 5-7, 9-3, 10-2, 10-2, 8-4, 3-9, 8-4, 6-6, 4-8, 5-7....
GoldenBear007
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BluesBear said:

GoodOleBaylorLine said:

An 11-1 Indiana team would deserve to be in the 12 team playoff. And frankly, even though they are from a power conference, I would enjoy having a fresh face in the mix. That is hopefully what the expanded playoff provides.

A 10-2 Penn State team is more debatable. Depends on who else is in that 9-12 range.
I have to disagree. Indiana did not beat a single ranked team this year. Got blown out in their loss and beat only 1 team who finished with a record better than .500

4-8, 4-8, 5-7, 5-7, 4-8, 4-8, 6-6, 6-6, 5-7, 7-5, 10-2, 1-11....

Baylor played 3 ranked teams and 6 of their opponents finished with a record better than .500

10-3, 5-7, 5-7, 9-3, 10-2, 10-2, 8-4, 3-9, 8-4, 6-6, 4-8, 5-7....


Indiana obviously gets bonus points for being in Big 10, but if they aren't deserving, who should get the nod then over them? You could make same argument for texas not being deserving as well based on schedule, but they only have one loss too.
BigGameBaylorBear
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Although their OOC could've been better, it's not Cignettis fault their schedule was bad. They simply beat what was in front of them (and by a large margin most of the time)

They played the two teams who played in the national championship last year along with Ohio State, 11-1 sounded like a pipe dream before this year

And like the other guy said, who would you put in front of them? Leaving 11-1 P4 teams out of the playoffs for 9-3 SEC teams sets a horrible precedent for schools like Baylor, I don't know why some of you are hellbent on meat riding Sankey…
Aberzombie1892
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BigGameBaylorBear said:

Although their OOC could've been better, it's not Cignettis fault their schedule was bad. They simply beat what was in front of them (and by a large margin most of the time)

They played the two teams who played in the national championship last year along with Ohio State, 11-1 sounded like a pipe dream before this year

And like the other guy said, who would you put in front of them? Leaving 11-1 P4 teams out of the playoffs for 9-3 SEC teams sets a horrible precedent for schools like Baylor, I don't know why some of you are hellbent on meat riding Sankey…


This. A one loss P5 team should be a lock for the CFP in the 12 team era and that shouldn't be debatable. Teams like Indiana neither select their conference schedule nor have input on the W/L record of their opponents other than the result of the head to head games - the committee knows that which is why teams are not really punished for differences in SOS.

Lord knows no Big 12 fan should be clamoring for SOS to play a larger role in CFP selections.
IowaBear
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You sure like ****ting on the B12 every chance you get… you should really find an SEC or B10 team to follow. Indiana's schedule was a farce anyone with a brain knows that. Played 1 ranked team and got absolutely curb stomped. They'll get waxed in the playoff just like the only real team they played waxed them.
Aberzombie1892
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IowaBear said:

You sure like ****ting on the B12 every chance you get… you should really find an SEC or B10 team to follow. Indiana's schedule was a farce anyone with a brain knows that. Played 1 ranked team and got absolutely curb stomped. They'll get waxed in the playoff just like the only real team they played waxed them.


Of course Indiana has almost no zero shot at the national title, but the same could be said about SMU, Arizona State/Iowa State, Boise State, South Carolina, Ole Miss, etc. as the blue chip ratio truly has an impact on a teams' chances.

That being said, the committee isn't leaving out a one loss P4 team when 12 are selected and they shouldn't. If they start doing that, it would defeat the point of playing the games and some teams should be excluded from the playoffs as of week 1.

EDIT: Clamoring for a 1 loss P4 to be excluded for a 2-3 loss P4 is more pro-SEC than anything I've ever said.
historian
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GoldenBear007 said:

BluesBear said:

GoodOleBaylorLine said:

An 11-1 Indiana team would deserve to be in the 12 team playoff. And frankly, even though they are from a power conference, I would enjoy having a fresh face in the mix. That is hopefully what the expanded playoff provides.

A 10-2 Penn State team is more debatable. Depends on who else is in that 9-12 range.
I have to disagree. Indiana did not beat a single ranked team this year. Got blown out in their loss and beat only 1 team who finished with a record better than .500

4-8, 4-8, 5-7, 5-7, 4-8, 4-8, 6-6, 6-6, 5-7, 7-5, 10-2, 1-11....

Baylor played 3 ranked teams and 6 of their opponents finished with a record better than .500

10-3, 5-7, 5-7, 9-3, 10-2, 10-2, 8-4, 3-9, 8-4, 6-6, 4-8, 5-7....


Indiana obviously gets bonus points for being in Big 10, but if they aren't deserving, who should get the nod then over them? You could make same argument for texas not being deserving as well based on schedule, but they only have one loss too.

Good points. At least Texas does have multiple wins over ranked teams, although Michigan, Oklahoma, & Vandy are no longer ranked and not nearly as good as some thought.
BluesBear
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BigGameBaylorBear said:

Although their OOC could've been better, it's not Cignettis fault their schedule was bad. They simply beat what was in front of them (and by a large margin most of the time)

They played the two teams who played in the national championship last year along with Ohio State, 11-1 sounded like a pipe dream before this year

And like the other guy said, who would you put in front of them? Leaving 11-1 P4 teams out of the playoffs for 9-3 SEC teams sets a horrible precedent for schools like Baylor, I don't know why some of you are hellbent on meat riding Sankey…



It's funny how media overlooks this for Indiana but rails against Baylor who curb stomped most of their opponents back in the Briles back to back b12 championship years.

Indiana will get blasted for sure.
Aberzombie1892
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BluesBear said:

BigGameBaylorBear said:

Although their OOC could've been better, it's not Cignettis fault their schedule was bad. They simply beat what was in front of them (and by a large margin most of the time)

They played the two teams who played in the national championship last year along with Ohio State, 11-1 sounded like a pipe dream before this year

And like the other guy said, who would you put in front of them? Leaving 11-1 P4 teams out of the playoffs for 9-3 SEC teams sets a horrible precedent for schools like Baylor, I don't know why some of you are hellbent on meat riding Sankey…



It's funny how media overlooks this for Indiana but rails against Baylor who curb stomped most of their opponents back in the Briles back to back b12 championship years.

Indiana will get blasted for sure.


The difference is 2014 Baylor would have been a lock for the 12 team CFP as conference champion in 2024, and, even if it wasn't the Big 12 champion, it still would have been a lock for an at large spot with one loss the same way that 2024 Indiana is.
boognish_bear
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Tons of BYU responses in his comments

bear2be2
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BigGameBaylorBear said:

Although their OOC could've been better, it's not Cignettis fault their schedule was bad. They simply beat what was in front of them (and by a large margin most of the time)

They played the two teams who played in the national championship last year along with Ohio State, 11-1 sounded like a pipe dream before this year

And like the other guy said, who would you put in front of them? Leaving 11-1 P4 teams out of the playoffs for 9-3 SEC teams sets a horrible precedent for schools like Baylor, I don't know why some of you are hellbent on meat riding Sankey…
Agreed. If you're not sold on Indiana, seed them low and let it work itself out. But leaving out an 11-1 power conference team would completely invalidate this playoff.
bear2be2
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BluesBear said:

BigGameBaylorBear said:

Although their OOC could've been better, it's not Cignettis fault their schedule was bad. They simply beat what was in front of them (and by a large margin most of the time)

They played the two teams who played in the national championship last year along with Ohio State, 11-1 sounded like a pipe dream before this year

And like the other guy said, who would you put in front of them? Leaving 11-1 P4 teams out of the playoffs for 9-3 SEC teams sets a horrible precedent for schools like Baylor, I don't know why some of you are hellbent on meat riding Sankey…



It's funny how media overlooks this for Indiana but rails against Baylor who curb stomped most of their opponents back in the Briles back to back b12 championship years.

Indiana will get blasted for sure.
The media hasn't overlooked that with Indiana at all. They've been saying the same things about them they said about us back in 2013 and 2014.

There is no way IU would have been included in a four-team playoff.

But there is also no way they should be left out of a 12-team playoff in a year where most good teams have two and three losses. There have been a lot of teams play weak schedules this year. Only a few others (Texas, SMU and Boise State) finished with 11 wins, and none of those handled lesser opponents with the ease Indiana did.

If going 11-1 was easy, more teams would do it. There's something to be said for winning all of the games you should. The SEC's inability to do that (outside of Texas) has it crying like babies right now from top to bottom.
PartyBear
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I wouldn't include Texas in the easy schedule category.
IowaBear
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Your reasoning? Go look at their schedule in SEC play… than compare their schedule to the final SEC standings. They somehow avoided Bama, SC, Tenn, Ole Miss, Mizzou. Doesn't get much easier than that
 
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