Charlie Wilson's ghost does not concur.whiterock said:Stone cold reality: There is no scenario where Ukraine expels Russian forces.RMF5630 said:whiterock said:Res Ipsa Loquitur: if the Ukranian military doesn't turn that formation into exactly the death trap you cite, then the Ukrainian military is no significant threat to Russian forces. Incompetence, inability, etc....doesn't matter. Either the column stops, or it advances.tommie said:whiterock said:He doesn't need to keep it.Oldbear83 said:
"Putin is quite a bit much much smarter than his internet detractors."
My English friend today told me 'Putin has a case of the clevers'.
That is, he has outsmarted himself.
Putin cannot keep Ukraine, and the price just to take it is far higher than he expected.
He needs Ukraine to be too afraid to try to join NATO or EU.
Putin is in a very strong position. It doesn't matter what has happened to his army or campaign thus far. There is a 40mi long column of Russian might headed to surround Kiev. Ukraine might be able to stop the Russian army, but there is no short-term scenario where Ukraine can expel that army anywhere it is currently camped.
We are witnessing something not seen in hundreds of years.....a proper siege of a city (a number of them, actually)....an army camped outside the walls, waiting out a surrender not of an army, but of a people. The Russian army will lob enough ordnance to destabilize civil administration, and keep tightening the noose, trying not to turn 2022 Kiev into 1944 Stalingrad but to force Ukrainian leadership to make hard choices about how much pain (and for how long) the Ukrainian people should be asked to endure. Eventually, submission and planning for insurgency starts to look more and more palatable than rat soup.
Putin doesn't want to roll thru Ukraine like we rolled thru Iraq.
Putin doesn't want to install a new regime.
If he does that, he's got the Pottery Barn principle to deal with - he broke it, now he's got to fix it.
Putin wants to slowly strangle Ukraine, for the purpose of forcing the existing government of Ukraine to submit, to sign documents declaring loyalty to Moscow, to pay tribute to Moscow. When he gets those things (and he's far more likely to get them today than he was two weeks ago), he will go home. And for the next few decades, Ukrainian leadership will remember what it was like that time they made Moscow mad. And even if insurgency erupts after the Russian Army leaves victorious.....whatever regime remains in Kiev will be loathe to dally too much with the West, until and unless insurgency replaces them. Putin will have what he wants, and Ukrainian puppets to enforce it.
That doesn't look like a 40mi Russian might. That looks like a death trap formation.
I'm just a dude in Texas and that formation makes no sense to me. It could be a decoy intended to pull the Ukrainians off sides b
i.e. perhaps Russia formed that column up on roads because it knew it could.
Not sure Ukraine has enough control of the air or resources to exploit it at this point.
For all that can be said about Russian strategic miscalculation and tactical incompetence, Russia has always dominated Ukraine and will continue to do so for the next few weeks/months at minimum. It will extract concessions from this or a future Ukranian regime. The road back to true Ukrainian independence involves long, grinding insurgency, against long odds.
So long as Russia has a Tsar (and make no mistake, Putin is the Tsar and the "oligarchs" are the Boyars), Russia will act like Russia is acting right now.
Liberals want war with Russia over Ukraine
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Last: 4 yr ago by Mothra
Translation- "I'm an elite DC politician with a $70,000 electric car. I don't comprehend nor do I give 2 ****s about the pain at the pump for working families. I've got an agenda here people"
Biden’s Energy Secretary on high gas prices:
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) March 3, 2022
"We're working through an energy transition...The reality is, we have to take some time to get off of oil and gas, we recognize this. This is a transition." pic.twitter.com/ZOCJIdZCa5
What a dumbass.Jack Bauer said:
Translation- "I'm an elite DC politician with a $70,000 electric car. I don't comprehend nor do I give 2 ****s about the pain at the pump for working families. I've got an agenda here people"Biden’s Energy Secretary on high gas prices:
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) March 3, 2022
"We're working through an energy transition...The reality is, we have to take some time to get off of oil and gas, we recognize this. This is a transition." pic.twitter.com/ZOCJIdZCa5
Republican campaigners should be cutting that video for campaign ads.
yes, government wants to monitor us like Mice. Know where we are and how far we go. EV is about control. keeping us close to home when we do not need to be.
Ukraine is going to fall, Russia will halt oil to Europe when NATO/US responds and China will take Taiwan. The entire west will go into a MASSIVE recession due to soaring energy prices.whiterock said:Stone cold reality: There is no scenario where Ukraine expels Russian forces.RMF5630 said:whiterock said:Res Ipsa Loquitur: if the Ukranian military doesn't turn that formation into exactly the death trap you cite, then the Ukrainian military is no significant threat to Russian forces. Incompetence, inability, etc....doesn't matter. Either the column stops, or it advances.tommie said:whiterock said:He doesn't need to keep it.Oldbear83 said:
"Putin is quite a bit much much smarter than his internet detractors."
My English friend today told me 'Putin has a case of the clevers'.
That is, he has outsmarted himself.
Putin cannot keep Ukraine, and the price just to take it is far higher than he expected.
He needs Ukraine to be too afraid to try to join NATO or EU.
Putin is in a very strong position. It doesn't matter what has happened to his army or campaign thus far. There is a 40mi long column of Russian might headed to surround Kiev. Ukraine might be able to stop the Russian army, but there is no short-term scenario where Ukraine can expel that army anywhere it is currently camped.
We are witnessing something not seen in hundreds of years.....a proper siege of a city (a number of them, actually)....an army camped outside the walls, waiting out a surrender not of an army, but of a people. The Russian army will lob enough ordnance to destabilize civil administration, and keep tightening the noose, trying not to turn 2022 Kiev into 1944 Stalingrad but to force Ukrainian leadership to make hard choices about how much pain (and for how long) the Ukrainian people should be asked to endure. Eventually, submission and planning for insurgency starts to look more and more palatable than rat soup.
Putin doesn't want to roll thru Ukraine like we rolled thru Iraq.
Putin doesn't want to install a new regime.
If he does that, he's got the Pottery Barn principle to deal with - he broke it, now he's got to fix it.
Putin wants to slowly strangle Ukraine, for the purpose of forcing the existing government of Ukraine to submit, to sign documents declaring loyalty to Moscow, to pay tribute to Moscow. When he gets those things (and he's far more likely to get them today than he was two weeks ago), he will go home. And for the next few decades, Ukrainian leadership will remember what it was like that time they made Moscow mad. And even if insurgency erupts after the Russian Army leaves victorious.....whatever regime remains in Kiev will be loathe to dally too much with the West, until and unless insurgency replaces them. Putin will have what he wants, and Ukrainian puppets to enforce it.
That doesn't look like a 40mi Russian might. That looks like a death trap formation.
I'm just a dude in Texas and that formation makes no sense to me. It could be a decoy intended to pull the Ukrainians off sides b
i.e. perhaps Russia formed that column up on roads because it knew it could.
Not sure Ukraine has enough control of the air or resources to exploit it at this point.
For all that can be said about Russian strategic miscalculation and tactical incompetence, Russia has always dominated Ukraine and will continue to do so for the next few weeks/months at minimum. It will extract concessions from this or a future Ukranian regime. The road back to true Ukrainian independence involves long, grinding insurgency, against long odds.
So long as Russia has a Tsar (and make no mistake, Putin is the Tsar and the "oligarchs" are the Boyars), Russia will act like Russia is acting right now.
It's inevitable.
EV is about making money, not keeping you close to home. Good EVs can drive 500 miles on a charge. That's about seven hours of driving at 70 mph. In about half an hour on a fast charger you can add an addition couple of hundred miles to the distance.BornAgain said:
yes, government wants to monitor us like Mice. Know where we are and how far we go. EV is about control. keeping us close to home when we do not need to be.
The government can already track you with your phone and your credit card you use to buy your gas if they want to.
NATO/US has already responded, haven't they?Doc Holliday said:Ukraine is going to fall, Russia will halt oil to Europe when NATO/US responds and China will take Taiwan. The entire west will go into a MASSIVE recession due to soaring energy prices.whiterock said:Stone cold reality: There is no scenario where Ukraine expels Russian forces.RMF5630 said:whiterock said:Res Ipsa Loquitur: if the Ukranian military doesn't turn that formation into exactly the death trap you cite, then the Ukrainian military is no significant threat to Russian forces. Incompetence, inability, etc....doesn't matter. Either the column stops, or it advances.tommie said:whiterock said:He doesn't need to keep it.Oldbear83 said:
"Putin is quite a bit much much smarter than his internet detractors."
My English friend today told me 'Putin has a case of the clevers'.
That is, he has outsmarted himself.
Putin cannot keep Ukraine, and the price just to take it is far higher than he expected.
He needs Ukraine to be too afraid to try to join NATO or EU.
Putin is in a very strong position. It doesn't matter what has happened to his army or campaign thus far. There is a 40mi long column of Russian might headed to surround Kiev. Ukraine might be able to stop the Russian army, but there is no short-term scenario where Ukraine can expel that army anywhere it is currently camped.
We are witnessing something not seen in hundreds of years.....a proper siege of a city (a number of them, actually)....an army camped outside the walls, waiting out a surrender not of an army, but of a people. The Russian army will lob enough ordnance to destabilize civil administration, and keep tightening the noose, trying not to turn 2022 Kiev into 1944 Stalingrad but to force Ukrainian leadership to make hard choices about how much pain (and for how long) the Ukrainian people should be asked to endure. Eventually, submission and planning for insurgency starts to look more and more palatable than rat soup.
Putin doesn't want to roll thru Ukraine like we rolled thru Iraq.
Putin doesn't want to install a new regime.
If he does that, he's got the Pottery Barn principle to deal with - he broke it, now he's got to fix it.
Putin wants to slowly strangle Ukraine, for the purpose of forcing the existing government of Ukraine to submit, to sign documents declaring loyalty to Moscow, to pay tribute to Moscow. When he gets those things (and he's far more likely to get them today than he was two weeks ago), he will go home. And for the next few decades, Ukrainian leadership will remember what it was like that time they made Moscow mad. And even if insurgency erupts after the Russian Army leaves victorious.....whatever regime remains in Kiev will be loathe to dally too much with the West, until and unless insurgency replaces them. Putin will have what he wants, and Ukrainian puppets to enforce it.
That doesn't look like a 40mi Russian might. That looks like a death trap formation.
I'm just a dude in Texas and that formation makes no sense to me. It could be a decoy intended to pull the Ukrainians off sides b
i.e. perhaps Russia formed that column up on roads because it knew it could.
Not sure Ukraine has enough control of the air or resources to exploit it at this point.
For all that can be said about Russian strategic miscalculation and tactical incompetence, Russia has always dominated Ukraine and will continue to do so for the next few weeks/months at minimum. It will extract concessions from this or a future Ukranian regime. The road back to true Ukrainian independence involves long, grinding insurgency, against long odds.
So long as Russia has a Tsar (and make no mistake, Putin is the Tsar and the "oligarchs" are the Boyars), Russia will act like Russia is acting right now.
It's inevitable.
D. C. Bear said:EV is about making money, not keeping you close to home. Good EVs can drive 500 miles on a charge. That's about seven hours of driving at 70 mph. In about half an hour on a fast charger you can add an addition couple of hundred miles to the distance.BornAgain said:
yes, government wants to monitor us like Mice. Know where we are and how far we go. EV is about control. keeping us close to home when we do not need to be.
The government can already track you with your phone and your credit card you use to buy your gas if they want to.
And license plate readers.
https://www.cnet.com/news/ice-uses-a-massive-database-tracking-driver-location-data-to-target-immigrants/
I'm referring to their response in the event that Ukraine falls.D. C. Bear said:NATO/US has already responded, haven't they?Doc Holliday said:Ukraine is going to fall, Russia will halt oil to Europe when NATO/US responds and China will take Taiwan. The entire west will go into a MASSIVE recession due to soaring energy prices.whiterock said:Stone cold reality: There is no scenario where Ukraine expels Russian forces.RMF5630 said:whiterock said:Res Ipsa Loquitur: if the Ukranian military doesn't turn that formation into exactly the death trap you cite, then the Ukrainian military is no significant threat to Russian forces. Incompetence, inability, etc....doesn't matter. Either the column stops, or it advances.tommie said:whiterock said:He doesn't need to keep it.Oldbear83 said:
"Putin is quite a bit much much smarter than his internet detractors."
My English friend today told me 'Putin has a case of the clevers'.
That is, he has outsmarted himself.
Putin cannot keep Ukraine, and the price just to take it is far higher than he expected.
He needs Ukraine to be too afraid to try to join NATO or EU.
Putin is in a very strong position. It doesn't matter what has happened to his army or campaign thus far. There is a 40mi long column of Russian might headed to surround Kiev. Ukraine might be able to stop the Russian army, but there is no short-term scenario where Ukraine can expel that army anywhere it is currently camped.
We are witnessing something not seen in hundreds of years.....a proper siege of a city (a number of them, actually)....an army camped outside the walls, waiting out a surrender not of an army, but of a people. The Russian army will lob enough ordnance to destabilize civil administration, and keep tightening the noose, trying not to turn 2022 Kiev into 1944 Stalingrad but to force Ukrainian leadership to make hard choices about how much pain (and for how long) the Ukrainian people should be asked to endure. Eventually, submission and planning for insurgency starts to look more and more palatable than rat soup.
Putin doesn't want to roll thru Ukraine like we rolled thru Iraq.
Putin doesn't want to install a new regime.
If he does that, he's got the Pottery Barn principle to deal with - he broke it, now he's got to fix it.
Putin wants to slowly strangle Ukraine, for the purpose of forcing the existing government of Ukraine to submit, to sign documents declaring loyalty to Moscow, to pay tribute to Moscow. When he gets those things (and he's far more likely to get them today than he was two weeks ago), he will go home. And for the next few decades, Ukrainian leadership will remember what it was like that time they made Moscow mad. And even if insurgency erupts after the Russian Army leaves victorious.....whatever regime remains in Kiev will be loathe to dally too much with the West, until and unless insurgency replaces them. Putin will have what he wants, and Ukrainian puppets to enforce it.
That doesn't look like a 40mi Russian might. That looks like a death trap formation.
I'm just a dude in Texas and that formation makes no sense to me. It could be a decoy intended to pull the Ukrainians off sides b
i.e. perhaps Russia formed that column up on roads because it knew it could.
Not sure Ukraine has enough control of the air or resources to exploit it at this point.
For all that can be said about Russian strategic miscalculation and tactical incompetence, Russia has always dominated Ukraine and will continue to do so for the next few weeks/months at minimum. It will extract concessions from this or a future Ukranian regime. The road back to true Ukrainian independence involves long, grinding insurgency, against long odds.
So long as Russia has a Tsar (and make no mistake, Putin is the Tsar and the "oligarchs" are the Boyars), Russia will act like Russia is acting right now.
It's inevitable.
Agree,D. C. Bear said:Charlie Wilson's ghost does not concur.whiterock said:Stone cold reality: There is no scenario where Ukraine expels Russian forces.RMF5630 said:whiterock said:Res Ipsa Loquitur: if the Ukranian military doesn't turn that formation into exactly the death trap you cite, then the Ukrainian military is no significant threat to Russian forces. Incompetence, inability, etc....doesn't matter. Either the column stops, or it advances.tommie said:whiterock said:He doesn't need to keep it.Oldbear83 said:
"Putin is quite a bit much much smarter than his internet detractors."
My English friend today told me 'Putin has a case of the clevers'.
That is, he has outsmarted himself.
Putin cannot keep Ukraine, and the price just to take it is far higher than he expected.
He needs Ukraine to be too afraid to try to join NATO or EU.
Putin is in a very strong position. It doesn't matter what has happened to his army or campaign thus far. There is a 40mi long column of Russian might headed to surround Kiev. Ukraine might be able to stop the Russian army, but there is no short-term scenario where Ukraine can expel that army anywhere it is currently camped.
We are witnessing something not seen in hundreds of years.....a proper siege of a city (a number of them, actually)....an army camped outside the walls, waiting out a surrender not of an army, but of a people. The Russian army will lob enough ordnance to destabilize civil administration, and keep tightening the noose, trying not to turn 2022 Kiev into 1944 Stalingrad but to force Ukrainian leadership to make hard choices about how much pain (and for how long) the Ukrainian people should be asked to endure. Eventually, submission and planning for insurgency starts to look more and more palatable than rat soup.
Putin doesn't want to roll thru Ukraine like we rolled thru Iraq.
Putin doesn't want to install a new regime.
If he does that, he's got the Pottery Barn principle to deal with - he broke it, now he's got to fix it.
Putin wants to slowly strangle Ukraine, for the purpose of forcing the existing government of Ukraine to submit, to sign documents declaring loyalty to Moscow, to pay tribute to Moscow. When he gets those things (and he's far more likely to get them today than he was two weeks ago), he will go home. And for the next few decades, Ukrainian leadership will remember what it was like that time they made Moscow mad. And even if insurgency erupts after the Russian Army leaves victorious.....whatever regime remains in Kiev will be loathe to dally too much with the West, until and unless insurgency replaces them. Putin will have what he wants, and Ukrainian puppets to enforce it.
That doesn't look like a 40mi Russian might. That looks like a death trap formation.
I'm just a dude in Texas and that formation makes no sense to me. It could be a decoy intended to pull the Ukrainians off sides b
i.e. perhaps Russia formed that column up on roads because it knew it could.
Not sure Ukraine has enough control of the air or resources to exploit it at this point.
For all that can be said about Russian strategic miscalculation and tactical incompetence, Russia has always dominated Ukraine and will continue to do so for the next few weeks/months at minimum. It will extract concessions from this or a future Ukranian regime. The road back to true Ukrainian independence involves long, grinding insurgency, against long odds.
So long as Russia has a Tsar (and make no mistake, Putin is the Tsar and the "oligarchs" are the Boyars), Russia will act like Russia is acting right now.
Especially in the central (kyiv/kiev) region and the Western oblasts where there is almost zero support for Russia.
What response do you think that will be?Doc Holliday said:I'm referring to their response in the event that Ukraine falls.D. C. Bear said:NATO/US has already responded, haven't they?Doc Holliday said:Ukraine is going to fall, Russia will halt oil to Europe when NATO/US responds and China will take Taiwan. The entire west will go into a MASSIVE recession due to soaring energy prices.whiterock said:Stone cold reality: There is no scenario where Ukraine expels Russian forces.RMF5630 said:whiterock said:Res Ipsa Loquitur: if the Ukranian military doesn't turn that formation into exactly the death trap you cite, then the Ukrainian military is no significant threat to Russian forces. Incompetence, inability, etc....doesn't matter. Either the column stops, or it advances.tommie said:whiterock said:He doesn't need to keep it.Oldbear83 said:
"Putin is quite a bit much much smarter than his internet detractors."
My English friend today told me 'Putin has a case of the clevers'.
That is, he has outsmarted himself.
Putin cannot keep Ukraine, and the price just to take it is far higher than he expected.
He needs Ukraine to be too afraid to try to join NATO or EU.
Putin is in a very strong position. It doesn't matter what has happened to his army or campaign thus far. There is a 40mi long column of Russian might headed to surround Kiev. Ukraine might be able to stop the Russian army, but there is no short-term scenario where Ukraine can expel that army anywhere it is currently camped.
We are witnessing something not seen in hundreds of years.....a proper siege of a city (a number of them, actually)....an army camped outside the walls, waiting out a surrender not of an army, but of a people. The Russian army will lob enough ordnance to destabilize civil administration, and keep tightening the noose, trying not to turn 2022 Kiev into 1944 Stalingrad but to force Ukrainian leadership to make hard choices about how much pain (and for how long) the Ukrainian people should be asked to endure. Eventually, submission and planning for insurgency starts to look more and more palatable than rat soup.
Putin doesn't want to roll thru Ukraine like we rolled thru Iraq.
Putin doesn't want to install a new regime.
If he does that, he's got the Pottery Barn principle to deal with - he broke it, now he's got to fix it.
Putin wants to slowly strangle Ukraine, for the purpose of forcing the existing government of Ukraine to submit, to sign documents declaring loyalty to Moscow, to pay tribute to Moscow. When he gets those things (and he's far more likely to get them today than he was two weeks ago), he will go home. And for the next few decades, Ukrainian leadership will remember what it was like that time they made Moscow mad. And even if insurgency erupts after the Russian Army leaves victorious.....whatever regime remains in Kiev will be loathe to dally too much with the West, until and unless insurgency replaces them. Putin will have what he wants, and Ukrainian puppets to enforce it.
That doesn't look like a 40mi Russian might. That looks like a death trap formation.
I'm just a dude in Texas and that formation makes no sense to me. It could be a decoy intended to pull the Ukrainians off sides b
i.e. perhaps Russia formed that column up on roads because it knew it could.
Not sure Ukraine has enough control of the air or resources to exploit it at this point.
For all that can be said about Russian strategic miscalculation and tactical incompetence, Russia has always dominated Ukraine and will continue to do so for the next few weeks/months at minimum. It will extract concessions from this or a future Ukranian regime. The road back to true Ukrainian independence involves long, grinding insurgency, against long odds.
So long as Russia has a Tsar (and make no mistake, Putin is the Tsar and the "oligarchs" are the Boyars), Russia will act like Russia is acting right now.
It's inevitable.
Very few of them claim 500 miles and even fewer actually achieve 500 miles. In real world testing by Edmunds, published last month, not one was even over 430 miles and after that the next was 345. The one over 400 miles was the new 2022 MB EQS450+ with a $102k sticker price. Of 32 models tested only 10 achieved greater than 300 miles.D. C. Bear said:EV is about making money, not keeping you close to home. Good EVs can drive 500 miles on a charge. That's about seven hours of driving at 70 mph. In about half an hour on a fast charger you can add an addition couple of hundred miles to the distance.BornAgain said:
yes, government wants to monitor us like Mice. Know where we are and how far we go. EV is about control. keeping us close to home when we do not need to be.
The government can already track you with your phone and your credit card you use to buy your gas if they want to.
30 minutes adds between 50% and 75% of the battery.
The government can easily track you in loads of ways. Your EV is not about tracking you, we agree there.
They're wanting to build out more and more mass transit like high speed trains. When that happens, they won't need to monitor us, they'll be able to better control our movement.BornAgain said:
yes, government wants to monitor us like Mice. Know where we are and how far we go. EV is about control. keeping us close to home when we do not need to be.
That may occur at some point but not in your lifetime or mine.Rawhide said:They're wanting to build out more and more mass transit like high speed trains. When that happens, they won't need to monitor us, they'll be able to better control our movement.BornAgain said:
yes, government wants to monitor us like Mice. Know where we are and how far we go. EV is about control. keeping us close to home when we do not need to be.
Very aggressive warfareD. C. Bear said:What response do you think that will be?Doc Holliday said:I'm referring to their response in the event that Ukraine falls.D. C. Bear said:NATO/US has already responded, haven't they?Doc Holliday said:Ukraine is going to fall, Russia will halt oil to Europe when NATO/US responds and China will take Taiwan. The entire west will go into a MASSIVE recession due to soaring energy prices.whiterock said:Stone cold reality: There is no scenario where Ukraine expels Russian forces.RMF5630 said:whiterock said:Res Ipsa Loquitur: if the Ukranian military doesn't turn that formation into exactly the death trap you cite, then the Ukrainian military is no significant threat to Russian forces. Incompetence, inability, etc....doesn't matter. Either the column stops, or it advances.tommie said:whiterock said:He doesn't need to keep it.Oldbear83 said:
"Putin is quite a bit much much smarter than his internet detractors."
My English friend today told me 'Putin has a case of the clevers'.
That is, he has outsmarted himself.
Putin cannot keep Ukraine, and the price just to take it is far higher than he expected.
He needs Ukraine to be too afraid to try to join NATO or EU.
Putin is in a very strong position. It doesn't matter what has happened to his army or campaign thus far. There is a 40mi long column of Russian might headed to surround Kiev. Ukraine might be able to stop the Russian army, but there is no short-term scenario where Ukraine can expel that army anywhere it is currently camped.
We are witnessing something not seen in hundreds of years.....a proper siege of a city (a number of them, actually)....an army camped outside the walls, waiting out a surrender not of an army, but of a people. The Russian army will lob enough ordnance to destabilize civil administration, and keep tightening the noose, trying not to turn 2022 Kiev into 1944 Stalingrad but to force Ukrainian leadership to make hard choices about how much pain (and for how long) the Ukrainian people should be asked to endure. Eventually, submission and planning for insurgency starts to look more and more palatable than rat soup.
Putin doesn't want to roll thru Ukraine like we rolled thru Iraq.
Putin doesn't want to install a new regime.
If he does that, he's got the Pottery Barn principle to deal with - he broke it, now he's got to fix it.
Putin wants to slowly strangle Ukraine, for the purpose of forcing the existing government of Ukraine to submit, to sign documents declaring loyalty to Moscow, to pay tribute to Moscow. When he gets those things (and he's far more likely to get them today than he was two weeks ago), he will go home. And for the next few decades, Ukrainian leadership will remember what it was like that time they made Moscow mad. And even if insurgency erupts after the Russian Army leaves victorious.....whatever regime remains in Kiev will be loathe to dally too much with the West, until and unless insurgency replaces them. Putin will have what he wants, and Ukrainian puppets to enforce it.
That doesn't look like a 40mi Russian might. That looks like a death trap formation.
I'm just a dude in Texas and that formation makes no sense to me. It could be a decoy intended to pull the Ukrainians off sides b
i.e. perhaps Russia formed that column up on roads because it knew it could.
Not sure Ukraine has enough control of the air or resources to exploit it at this point.
For all that can be said about Russian strategic miscalculation and tactical incompetence, Russia has always dominated Ukraine and will continue to do so for the next few weeks/months at minimum. It will extract concessions from this or a future Ukranian regime. The road back to true Ukrainian independence involves long, grinding insurgency, against long odds.
So long as Russia has a Tsar (and make no mistake, Putin is the Tsar and the "oligarchs" are the Boyars), Russia will act like Russia is acting right now.
It's inevitable.
That's why I said "good" ones. 500 miles is the high range. However, It is fairly easy now to get where you want with an EV and they can be very when it comes to performance. On the other hand, battery technology is not where it needs to be to make EVs an environmentally useful solution. That will have to change before, from a pollution perspective, EVs are anything more than virtue signaling.nein51 said:Very few of them claim 500 miles and even fewer actually achieve 500 miles. In real world testing by Edmunds, published last month, not one was even over 430 miles and after that the next was 345. The one over 400 miles was the new 2022 MB EQS450+ with a $102k sticker price. Of 32 models tested only 10 achieved greater than 300 miles.D. C. Bear said:EV is about making money, not keeping you close to home. Good EVs can drive 500 miles on a charge. That's about seven hours of driving at 70 mph. In about half an hour on a fast charger you can add an addition couple of hundred miles to the distance.BornAgain said:
yes, government wants to monitor us like Mice. Know where we are and how far we go. EV is about control. keeping us close to home when we do not need to be.
The government can already track you with your phone and your credit card you use to buy your gas if they want to.
30 minutes adds between 50% and 75% of the battery.
The government can easily track you in loads of ways. Your EV is not about tracking you, we agree there.
Any transitition is a generation away. We may have people buying and using EVs. We may have more prototypes and pilots.. But to make a difference it would have to be at scale. To accomplish that, we are talking 10 to 20 years minimum. People have a hard time understanding how large the transportation market and how large the geography is it in the US.D. C. Bear said:That's why I said "good" ones. 500 miles is the high range. However, It is fairly easy now to get where you want with an EV and they can be very when it comes to performance. On the other hand, battery technology is not where it needs to be to make EVs an environmentally useful solution. That will have to change before, from a pollution perspective, EVs are anything more than virtue signaling.nein51 said:Very few of them claim 500 miles and even fewer actually achieve 500 miles. In real world testing by Edmunds, published last month, not one was even over 430 miles and after that the next was 345. The one over 400 miles was the new 2022 MB EQS450+ with a $102k sticker price. Of 32 models tested only 10 achieved greater than 300 miles.D. C. Bear said:EV is about making money, not keeping you close to home. Good EVs can drive 500 miles on a charge. That's about seven hours of driving at 70 mph. In about half an hour on a fast charger you can add an addition couple of hundred miles to the distance.BornAgain said:
yes, government wants to monitor us like Mice. Know where we are and how far we go. EV is about control. keeping us close to home when we do not need to be.
The government can already track you with your phone and your credit card you use to buy your gas if they want to.
30 minutes adds between 50% and 75% of the battery.
The government can easily track you in loads of ways. Your EV is not about tracking you, we agree there.
Rail is a 19th century tech, you can upgrade if you have the basics in place like Europe, Japan or a dictator like China that doesn't care how much it costs. Trying to build a rail system in the US that rivals Europe is a fools erand. Too expensive, not enough ridership and too many miles for one Country to take the place of the auto.
I agree. Probably not in my child's lifetime either. It will come, but it'll be a slow and long processnein51 said:That may occur at some point but not in your lifetime or mine.Rawhide said:They're wanting to build out more and more mass transit like high speed trains. When that happens, they won't need to monitor us, they'll be able to better control our movement.BornAgain said:
yes, government wants to monitor us like Mice. Know where we are and how far we go. EV is about control. keeping us close to home when we do not need to be.
thanks for your opinions. Im no expert on this for sure. But I am cynical of our Govt. They get us on EV and all these damn stations and then control the grid with blackouts.
Yep. I agree. It's a good idea to be wary of the gov't.BornAgain said:
thanks for your opinions. Im no expert on this for sure. But I am cynical of our Govt. They get us on EV and all these damn stations and then control the grid with blackouts.
Yep it all about population density.RMF5630 said:Any transition is a generation away. We may have people buying and using EVs. We may have more prototypes and pilots.. But to make a difference it would have to be at scale. To accomplish that, we are talking 10 to 20 years minimum. People have a hard time understanding how large the transportation market and how large the geography is it in the US.D. C. Bear said:That's why I said "good" ones. 500 miles is the high range. However, It is fairly easy now to get where you want with an EV and they can be very when it comes to performance. On the other hand, battery technology is not where it needs to be to make EVs an environmentally useful solution. That will have to change before, from a pollution perspective, EVs are anything more than virtue signaling.nein51 said:Very few of them claim 500 miles and even fewer actually achieve 500 miles. In real world testing by Edmunds, published last month, not one was even over 430 miles and after that the next was 345. The one over 400 miles was the new 2022 MB EQS450+ with a $102k sticker price. Of 32 models tested only 10 achieved greater than 300 miles.D. C. Bear said:EV is about making money, not keeping you close to home. Good EVs can drive 500 miles on a charge. That's about seven hours of driving at 70 mph. In about half an hour on a fast charger you can add an addition couple of hundred miles to the distance.BornAgain said:
yes, government wants to monitor us like Mice. Know where we are and how far we go. EV is about control. keeping us close to home when we do not need to be.
The government can already track you with your phone and your credit card you use to buy your gas if they want to.
30 minutes adds between 50% and 75% of the battery.
The government can easily track you in loads of ways. Your EV is not about tracking you, we agree there.
Rail is a 19th century tech, you can upgrade if you have the basics in place like Europe, Japan or a dictator like China that doesn't care how much it costs. Trying to build a rail system in the US that rivals Europe is a fools erand. Too expensive, not enough ridership and too many miles for one Country to take the place of the auto.
Japan is about the size of California...but with a population of 124 million vs 40 million.
China is about the size of the mainland USA...but with a population of 1.4 billion vs 340 million.
(And 90% of that Chinese pop. lives in the east and close to the coast. Would be like if 90% of Americans lived east of the Mississippi river & hugged the Atlantic coast.)
S. Korea is about the size of Indiana....but with a pop. of 50 million vs 6.7 million.
Rail travel for Japan, China, S. Korea makes a lot of sense....and car ownership is just not much of a thing in those nations.
It does not make sense for countries like Canada, USA, Australia.
Redbrickbear said:Agree,D. C. Bear said:Charlie Wilson's ghost does not concur.whiterock said:Stone cold reality: There is no scenario where Ukraine expels Russian forces.RMF5630 said:whiterock said:Res Ipsa Loquitur: if the Ukranian military doesn't turn that formation into exactly the death trap you cite, then the Ukrainian military is no significant threat to Russian forces. Incompetence, inability, etc....doesn't matter. Either the column stops, or it advances.tommie said:whiterock said:He doesn't need to keep it.Oldbear83 said:
"Putin is quite a bit much much smarter than his internet detractors."
My English friend today told me 'Putin has a case of the clevers'.
That is, he has outsmarted himself.
Putin cannot keep Ukraine, and the price just to take it is far higher than he expected.
He needs Ukraine to be too afraid to try to join NATO or EU.
Putin is in a very strong position. It doesn't matter what has happened to his army or campaign thus far. There is a 40mi long column of Russian might headed to surround Kiev. Ukraine might be able to stop the Russian army, but there is no short-term scenario where Ukraine can expel that army anywhere it is currently camped.
We are witnessing something not seen in hundreds of years.....a proper siege of a city (a number of them, actually)....an army camped outside the walls, waiting out a surrender not of an army, but of a people. The Russian army will lob enough ordnance to destabilize civil administration, and keep tightening the noose, trying not to turn 2022 Kiev into 1944 Stalingrad but to force Ukrainian leadership to make hard choices about how much pain (and for how long) the Ukrainian people should be asked to endure. Eventually, submission and planning for insurgency starts to look more and more palatable than rat soup.
Putin doesn't want to roll thru Ukraine like we rolled thru Iraq.
Putin doesn't want to install a new regime.
If he does that, he's got the Pottery Barn principle to deal with - he broke it, now he's got to fix it.
Putin wants to slowly strangle Ukraine, for the purpose of forcing the existing government of Ukraine to submit, to sign documents declaring loyalty to Moscow, to pay tribute to Moscow. When he gets those things (and he's far more likely to get them today than he was two weeks ago), he will go home. And for the next few decades, Ukrainian leadership will remember what it was like that time they made Moscow mad. And even if insurgency erupts after the Russian Army leaves victorious.....whatever regime remains in Kiev will be loathe to dally too much with the West, until and unless insurgency replaces them. Putin will have what he wants, and Ukrainian puppets to enforce it.
That doesn't look like a 40mi Russian might. That looks like a death trap formation.
I'm just a dude in Texas and that formation makes no sense to me. It could be a decoy intended to pull the Ukrainians off sides b
i.e. perhaps Russia formed that column up on roads because it knew it could.
Not sure Ukraine has enough control of the air or resources to exploit it at this point.
For all that can be said about Russian strategic miscalculation and tactical incompetence, Russia has always dominated Ukraine and will continue to do so for the next few weeks/months at minimum. It will extract concessions from this or a future Ukranian regime. The road back to true Ukrainian independence involves long, grinding insurgency, against long odds.
So long as Russia has a Tsar (and make no mistake, Putin is the Tsar and the "oligarchs" are the Boyars), Russia will act like Russia is acting right now.
Especially in the central (kyiv/kiev) region and the Western oblasts where there is almost zero support for Russia.
I wasn't talking about long term insurgency. I was talking about short term. Ukraine is not going to repel this invasion. Russia will get what it wants from Zelensky or it will install a regime that will concede. The insurgency happens after that, and will take a long, long time. Russia will treat that insurgency like it was happening in Mother Russia itself. It will be brutal.
Gotcha,whiterock said:Redbrickbear said:Agree,D. C. Bear said:Charlie Wilson's ghost does not concur.whiterock said:Stone cold reality: There is no scenario where Ukraine expels Russian forces.RMF5630 said:whiterock said:Res Ipsa Loquitur: if the Ukranian military doesn't turn that formation into exactly the death trap you cite, then the Ukrainian military is no significant threat to Russian forces. Incompetence, inability, etc....doesn't matter. Either the column stops, or it advances.tommie said:whiterock said:He doesn't need to keep it.Oldbear83 said:
"Putin is quite a bit much much smarter than his internet detractors."
My English friend today told me 'Putin has a case of the clevers'.
That is, he has outsmarted himself.
Putin cannot keep Ukraine, and the price just to take it is far higher than he expected.
He needs Ukraine to be too afraid to try to join NATO or EU.
Putin is in a very strong position. It doesn't matter what has happened to his army or campaign thus far. There is a 40mi long column of Russian might headed to surround Kiev. Ukraine might be able to stop the Russian army, but there is no short-term scenario where Ukraine can expel that army anywhere it is currently camped.
We are witnessing something not seen in hundreds of years.....a proper siege of a city (a number of them, actually)....an army camped outside the walls, waiting out a surrender not of an army, but of a people. The Russian army will lob enough ordnance to destabilize civil administration, and keep tightening the noose, trying not to turn 2022 Kiev into 1944 Stalingrad but to force Ukrainian leadership to make hard choices about how much pain (and for how long) the Ukrainian people should be asked to endure. Eventually, submission and planning for insurgency starts to look more and more palatable than rat soup.
Putin doesn't want to roll thru Ukraine like we rolled thru Iraq.
Putin doesn't want to install a new regime.
If he does that, he's got the Pottery Barn principle to deal with - he broke it, now he's got to fix it.
Putin wants to slowly strangle Ukraine, for the purpose of forcing the existing government of Ukraine to submit, to sign documents declaring loyalty to Moscow, to pay tribute to Moscow. When he gets those things (and he's far more likely to get them today than he was two weeks ago), he will go home. And for the next few decades, Ukrainian leadership will remember what it was like that time they made Moscow mad. And even if insurgency erupts after the Russian Army leaves victorious.....whatever regime remains in Kiev will be loathe to dally too much with the West, until and unless insurgency replaces them. Putin will have what he wants, and Ukrainian puppets to enforce it.
That doesn't look like a 40mi Russian might. That looks like a death trap formation.
I'm just a dude in Texas and that formation makes no sense to me. It could be a decoy intended to pull the Ukrainians off sides b
i.e. perhaps Russia formed that column up on roads because it knew it could.
Not sure Ukraine has enough control of the air or resources to exploit it at this point.
For all that can be said about Russian strategic miscalculation and tactical incompetence, Russia has always dominated Ukraine and will continue to do so for the next few weeks/months at minimum. It will extract concessions from this or a future Ukranian regime. The road back to true Ukrainian independence involves long, grinding insurgency, against long odds.
So long as Russia has a Tsar (and make no mistake, Putin is the Tsar and the "oligarchs" are the Boyars), Russia will act like Russia is acting right now.
Especially in the central (kyiv/kiev) region and the Western oblasts where there is almost zero support for Russia.
I wasn't talking about long term insurgency. I was talking about short term. Ukraine is not going to repel this invasion. Russia will get what it wants from Zelensky or it will install a regime that will concede. The insurgency happens after that, and will take a long, long time. Russia will treat that insurgency like it was happening in Mother Russia itself. It will be brutal.
My mistake.
I thought that Russia was gonna easily roll over Ukraine just a few days ago.
But they do seem to be having fuel and logistic problems.
I think in the end the Russian forces probably do take over...but just don't think they can hold it long term.
I don't think it was ever a question of whether Russia would overrun Ukraine, just how brutal and how many resources it would take. It looks like it is taking more resources and a harder punch than they expected.Redbrickbear said:Gotcha,whiterock said:Redbrickbear said:Agree,D. C. Bear said:Charlie Wilson's ghost does not concur.whiterock said:Stone cold reality: There is no scenario where Ukraine expels Russian forces.RMF5630 said:whiterock said:Res Ipsa Loquitur: if the Ukranian military doesn't turn that formation into exactly the death trap you cite, then the Ukrainian military is no significant threat to Russian forces. Incompetence, inability, etc....doesn't matter. Either the column stops, or it advances.tommie said:whiterock said:He doesn't need to keep it.Oldbear83 said:
"Putin is quite a bit much much smarter than his internet detractors."
My English friend today told me 'Putin has a case of the clevers'.
That is, he has outsmarted himself.
Putin cannot keep Ukraine, and the price just to take it is far higher than he expected.
He needs Ukraine to be too afraid to try to join NATO or EU.
Putin is in a very strong position. It doesn't matter what has happened to his army or campaign thus far. There is a 40mi long column of Russian might headed to surround Kiev. Ukraine might be able to stop the Russian army, but there is no short-term scenario where Ukraine can expel that army anywhere it is currently camped.
We are witnessing something not seen in hundreds of years.....a proper siege of a city (a number of them, actually)....an army camped outside the walls, waiting out a surrender not of an army, but of a people. The Russian army will lob enough ordnance to destabilize civil administration, and keep tightening the noose, trying not to turn 2022 Kiev into 1944 Stalingrad but to force Ukrainian leadership to make hard choices about how much pain (and for how long) the Ukrainian people should be asked to endure. Eventually, submission and planning for insurgency starts to look more and more palatable than rat soup.
Putin doesn't want to roll thru Ukraine like we rolled thru Iraq.
Putin doesn't want to install a new regime.
If he does that, he's got the Pottery Barn principle to deal with - he broke it, now he's got to fix it.
Putin wants to slowly strangle Ukraine, for the purpose of forcing the existing government of Ukraine to submit, to sign documents declaring loyalty to Moscow, to pay tribute to Moscow. When he gets those things (and he's far more likely to get them today than he was two weeks ago), he will go home. And for the next few decades, Ukrainian leadership will remember what it was like that time they made Moscow mad. And even if insurgency erupts after the Russian Army leaves victorious.....whatever regime remains in Kiev will be loathe to dally too much with the West, until and unless insurgency replaces them. Putin will have what he wants, and Ukrainian puppets to enforce it.
That doesn't look like a 40mi Russian might. That looks like a death trap formation.
I'm just a dude in Texas and that formation makes no sense to me. It could be a decoy intended to pull the Ukrainians off sides b
i.e. perhaps Russia formed that column up on roads because it knew it could.
Not sure Ukraine has enough control of the air or resources to exploit it at this point.
For all that can be said about Russian strategic miscalculation and tactical incompetence, Russia has always dominated Ukraine and will continue to do so for the next few weeks/months at minimum. It will extract concessions from this or a future Ukranian regime. The road back to true Ukrainian independence involves long, grinding insurgency, against long odds.
So long as Russia has a Tsar (and make no mistake, Putin is the Tsar and the "oligarchs" are the Boyars), Russia will act like Russia is acting right now.
Especially in the central (kyiv/kiev) region and the Western oblasts where there is almost zero support for Russia.
I wasn't talking about long term insurgency. I was talking about short term. Ukraine is not going to repel this invasion. Russia will get what it wants from Zelensky or it will install a regime that will concede. The insurgency happens after that, and will take a long, long time. Russia will treat that insurgency like it was happening in Mother Russia itself. It will be brutal.
My mistake.
I thought that Russia was gonna easily roll over Ukraine just a few days ago.
But they do seem to be having fuel and logistic problems.
I think in the end the Russian forces probably do take over...but just don't think they can hold it long term.
I find it funny (ironic, not comically) that many are now saying that this was always Putin's plan. They really have blown this guy up to be 12 feet tall, when in reality he has made some very bad miscalculations and moves.
Um....no.
In which Stacey Abrams implies she and her movement are just like Zelenskyy and Ukraine pic.twitter.com/kyLSondajt
— Alex Christy (@alexchristy17) March 3, 2022
So just to get this argument straight, the West somehow provoked Russia by not rejecting Ukrainian attempts to join with it of their own accord?
— Ben Shapiro (@benshapiro) March 3, 2022
Nancy Pelosi says to ban all Russian oil. Good thing we have....windmill power!!!
Unfortunately, I think that is what we have to do and it will be painful. Putin is making a fortune while raping another country. Can't let that happen. Merca is gonna have to nut up and feel a little discomfort while addressing the greater good. Cannot let that clown roll through Eastern Europe.Jack Bauer said:
Nancy Pelosi says to ban all Russian oil. Good thing we have....windmill power!!!
J.R. said:Unfortunately, I think that is what we have to do and it will be painful. Putin is making a fortune while raping another country. Can't let that happen. Merca is gonna have to nut up and feel a little discomfort while addressing the greater good. Cannot let that clown roll through Eastern Europe.Jack Bauer said:
Nancy Pelosi says to ban all Russian oil. Good thing we have....windmill power!!!
Oil up is great for the portfolio
Yes, Oil is up by unintended consequences by the Dems. They alway try to run us out of business and it always backfires. As I have mentioned here before, the Oil and Gas business is always much, much better under dems. This I want to be really clear on....I am more than happy to make a bunch of $ off of Biden and the rest of his greenies. However, I cannot put 1 $ of oil profits for a human life. Sure, WTI is up 20% on Ukraine/Russia, I'd give up twice that premium to save one Ukrainian life...nein51 said:J.R. said:Unfortunately, I think that is what we have to do and it will be painful. Putin is making a fortune while raping another country. Can't let that happen. Merca is gonna have to nut up and feel a little discomfort while addressing the greater good. Cannot let that clown roll through Eastern Europe.Jack Bauer said:
Nancy Pelosi says to ban all Russian oil. Good thing we have....windmill power!!!
Oil up is great for the portfolio
J.R. said:Yes, Oil is up by unintended consequences by the Dems. They alway try to run us out of business and it always backfires. As I have mentioned here before, the Oil and Gas business is always much, much better under dems. This I want to be really clear on....I am more than happy to make a bunch of $ off of Biden and the rest of his greenies. However, I cannot put 1 $ of oil profits for a human life. Sure, WTI is up 20% on Ukraine/Russia, I'd give up twice that premium to save one Ukrainian life...nein51 said:J.R. said:Unfortunately, I think that is what we have to do and it will be painful. Putin is making a fortune while raping another country. Can't let that happen. Merca is gonna have to nut up and feel a little discomfort while addressing the greater good. Cannot let that clown roll through Eastern Europe.Jack Bauer said:
Nancy Pelosi says to ban all Russian oil. Good thing we have....windmill power!!!
Oil up is great for the portfolio
It's not just your portfolio it's good for. I'm with you. I don't want people to die so I can make a couple bucks. Sure looks like the outcome at the moment however.
Doc Holliday said:Ukraine is going to fall, Russia will halt oil to Europe when NATO/US responds and China will take Taiwan. The entire west will go into a MASSIVE recession due to soaring energy prices.whiterock said:Stone cold reality: There is no scenario where Ukraine expels Russian forces.RMF5630 said:whiterock said:Res Ipsa Loquitur: if the Ukranian military doesn't turn that formation into exactly the death trap you cite, then the Ukrainian military is no significant threat to Russian forces. Incompetence, inability, etc....doesn't matter. Either the column stops, or it advances.tommie said:whiterock said:He doesn't need to keep it.Oldbear83 said:
"Putin is quite a bit much much smarter than his internet detractors."
My English friend today told me 'Putin has a case of the clevers'.
That is, he has outsmarted himself.
Putin cannot keep Ukraine, and the price just to take it is far higher than he expected.
He needs Ukraine to be too afraid to try to join NATO or EU.
Putin is in a very strong position. It doesn't matter what has happened to his army or campaign thus far. There is a 40mi long column of Russian might headed to surround Kiev. Ukraine might be able to stop the Russian army, but there is no short-term scenario where Ukraine can expel that army anywhere it is currently camped.
We are witnessing something not seen in hundreds of years.....a proper siege of a city (a number of them, actually)....an army camped outside the walls, waiting out a surrender not of an army, but of a people. The Russian army will lob enough ordnance to destabilize civil administration, and keep tightening the noose, trying not to turn 2022 Kiev into 1944 Stalingrad but to force Ukrainian leadership to make hard choices about how much pain (and for how long) the Ukrainian people should be asked to endure. Eventually, submission and planning for insurgency starts to look more and more palatable than rat soup.
Putin doesn't want to roll thru Ukraine like we rolled thru Iraq.
Putin doesn't want to install a new regime.
If he does that, he's got the Pottery Barn principle to deal with - he broke it, now he's got to fix it.
Putin wants to slowly strangle Ukraine, for the purpose of forcing the existing government of Ukraine to submit, to sign documents declaring loyalty to Moscow, to pay tribute to Moscow. When he gets those things (and he's far more likely to get them today than he was two weeks ago), he will go home. And for the next few decades, Ukrainian leadership will remember what it was like that time they made Moscow mad. And even if insurgency erupts after the Russian Army leaves victorious.....whatever regime remains in Kiev will be loathe to dally too much with the West, until and unless insurgency replaces them. Putin will have what he wants, and Ukrainian puppets to enforce it.
That doesn't look like a 40mi Russian might. That looks like a death trap formation.
I'm just a dude in Texas and that formation makes no sense to me. It could be a decoy intended to pull the Ukrainians off sides b
i.e. perhaps Russia formed that column up on roads because it knew it could.
Not sure Ukraine has enough control of the air or resources to exploit it at this point.
For all that can be said about Russian strategic miscalculation and tactical incompetence, Russia has always dominated Ukraine and will continue to do so for the next few weeks/months at minimum. It will extract concessions from this or a future Ukranian regime. The road back to true Ukrainian independence involves long, grinding insurgency, against long odds.
So long as Russia has a Tsar (and make no mistake, Putin is the Tsar and the "oligarchs" are the Boyars), Russia will act like Russia is acting right now.
It's inevitable.
High energy costs helped bring about the last recession .
Agreed....Ukraine is doomed . They never stood a chance once NATO decided not to get involved. Which was absolutely the right decision .
Putin is going to get all puffy over his latest conquest . Some countries will no doubt begin kissing his ass.
Baltic States just go to be ****ting in their pants ....doubt they have any real faith in NATO at this point.
I sure wouldn't.
Spot on. I'm glad NATO didn't get involved.Canada2017 said:Doc Holliday said:Ukraine is going to fall, Russia will halt oil to Europe when NATO/US responds and China will take Taiwan. The entire west will go into a MASSIVE recession due to soaring energy prices.whiterock said:Stone cold reality: There is no scenario where Ukraine expels Russian forces.RMF5630 said:whiterock said:Res Ipsa Loquitur: if the Ukranian military doesn't turn that formation into exactly the death trap you cite, then the Ukrainian military is no significant threat to Russian forces. Incompetence, inability, etc....doesn't matter. Either the column stops, or it advances.tommie said:whiterock said:He doesn't need to keep it.Oldbear83 said:
"Putin is quite a bit much much smarter than his internet detractors."
My English friend today told me 'Putin has a case of the clevers'.
That is, he has outsmarted himself.
Putin cannot keep Ukraine, and the price just to take it is far higher than he expected.
He needs Ukraine to be too afraid to try to join NATO or EU.
Putin is in a very strong position. It doesn't matter what has happened to his army or campaign thus far. There is a 40mi long column of Russian might headed to surround Kiev. Ukraine might be able to stop the Russian army, but there is no short-term scenario where Ukraine can expel that army anywhere it is currently camped.
We are witnessing something not seen in hundreds of years.....a proper siege of a city (a number of them, actually)....an army camped outside the walls, waiting out a surrender not of an army, but of a people. The Russian army will lob enough ordnance to destabilize civil administration, and keep tightening the noose, trying not to turn 2022 Kiev into 1944 Stalingrad but to force Ukrainian leadership to make hard choices about how much pain (and for how long) the Ukrainian people should be asked to endure. Eventually, submission and planning for insurgency starts to look more and more palatable than rat soup.
Putin doesn't want to roll thru Ukraine like we rolled thru Iraq.
Putin doesn't want to install a new regime.
If he does that, he's got the Pottery Barn principle to deal with - he broke it, now he's got to fix it.
Putin wants to slowly strangle Ukraine, for the purpose of forcing the existing government of Ukraine to submit, to sign documents declaring loyalty to Moscow, to pay tribute to Moscow. When he gets those things (and he's far more likely to get them today than he was two weeks ago), he will go home. And for the next few decades, Ukrainian leadership will remember what it was like that time they made Moscow mad. And even if insurgency erupts after the Russian Army leaves victorious.....whatever regime remains in Kiev will be loathe to dally too much with the West, until and unless insurgency replaces them. Putin will have what he wants, and Ukrainian puppets to enforce it.
That doesn't look like a 40mi Russian might. That looks like a death trap formation.
I'm just a dude in Texas and that formation makes no sense to me. It could be a decoy intended to pull the Ukrainians off sides b
i.e. perhaps Russia formed that column up on roads because it knew it could.
Not sure Ukraine has enough control of the air or resources to exploit it at this point.
For all that can be said about Russian strategic miscalculation and tactical incompetence, Russia has always dominated Ukraine and will continue to do so for the next few weeks/months at minimum. It will extract concessions from this or a future Ukranian regime. The road back to true Ukrainian independence involves long, grinding insurgency, against long odds.
So long as Russia has a Tsar (and make no mistake, Putin is the Tsar and the "oligarchs" are the Boyars), Russia will act like Russia is acting right now.
It's inevitable.
High energy costs helped bring about the last recession .
Agreed....Ukraine is doomed . They never stood a chance once NATO decided not to get involved. Which was absolutely the right decision .
Putin is going to get all puffy over his latest conquest . Some countries will no doubt begin kissing his ass.
Baltic States just go to be ****ting in their pants ....doubt they have any real faith in NATO at this point.
I sure wouldn't.
I think once oil gets past $125 it can cause a recession in the US. That's what I'm hearing.
Doc Holliday said:Spot on. I'm glad NATO didn't get involved.Canada2017 said:Doc Holliday said:Ukraine is going to fall, Russia will halt oil to Europe when NATO/US responds and China will take Taiwan. The entire west will go into a MASSIVE recession due to soaring energy prices.whiterock said:Stone cold reality: There is no scenario where Ukraine expels Russian forces.RMF5630 said:whiterock said:Res Ipsa Loquitur: if the Ukranian military doesn't turn that formation into exactly the death trap you cite, then the Ukrainian military is no significant threat to Russian forces. Incompetence, inability, etc....doesn't matter. Either the column stops, or it advances.tommie said:whiterock said:He doesn't need to keep it.Oldbear83 said:
"Putin is quite a bit much much smarter than his internet detractors."
My English friend today told me 'Putin has a case of the clevers'.
That is, he has outsmarted himself.
Putin cannot keep Ukraine, and the price just to take it is far higher than he expected.
He needs Ukraine to be too afraid to try to join NATO or EU.
Putin is in a very strong position. It doesn't matter what has happened to his army or campaign thus far. There is a 40mi long column of Russian might headed to surround Kiev. Ukraine might be able to stop the Russian army, but there is no short-term scenario where Ukraine can expel that army anywhere it is currently camped.
We are witnessing something not seen in hundreds of years.....a proper siege of a city (a number of them, actually)....an army camped outside the walls, waiting out a surrender not of an army, but of a people. The Russian army will lob enough ordnance to destabilize civil administration, and keep tightening the noose, trying not to turn 2022 Kiev into 1944 Stalingrad but to force Ukrainian leadership to make hard choices about how much pain (and for how long) the Ukrainian people should be asked to endure. Eventually, submission and planning for insurgency starts to look more and more palatable than rat soup.
Putin doesn't want to roll thru Ukraine like we rolled thru Iraq.
Putin doesn't want to install a new regime.
If he does that, he's got the Pottery Barn principle to deal with - he broke it, now he's got to fix it.
Putin wants to slowly strangle Ukraine, for the purpose of forcing the existing government of Ukraine to submit, to sign documents declaring loyalty to Moscow, to pay tribute to Moscow. When he gets those things (and he's far more likely to get them today than he was two weeks ago), he will go home. And for the next few decades, Ukrainian leadership will remember what it was like that time they made Moscow mad. And even if insurgency erupts after the Russian Army leaves victorious.....whatever regime remains in Kiev will be loathe to dally too much with the West, until and unless insurgency replaces them. Putin will have what he wants, and Ukrainian puppets to enforce it.
That doesn't look like a 40mi Russian might. That looks like a death trap formation.
I'm just a dude in Texas and that formation makes no sense to me. It could be a decoy intended to pull the Ukrainians off sides b
i.e. perhaps Russia formed that column up on roads because it knew it could.
Not sure Ukraine has enough control of the air or resources to exploit it at this point.
For all that can be said about Russian strategic miscalculation and tactical incompetence, Russia has always dominated Ukraine and will continue to do so for the next few weeks/months at minimum. It will extract concessions from this or a future Ukranian regime. The road back to true Ukrainian independence involves long, grinding insurgency, against long odds.
So long as Russia has a Tsar (and make no mistake, Putin is the Tsar and the "oligarchs" are the Boyars), Russia will act like Russia is acting right now.
It's inevitable.
High energy costs helped bring about the last recession .
Agreed....Ukraine is doomed . They never stood a chance once NATO decided not to get involved. Which was absolutely the right decision .
Putin is going to get all puffy over his latest conquest . Some countries will no doubt begin kissing his ass.
Baltic States just go to be ****ting in their pants ....doubt they have any real faith in NATO at this point.
I sure wouldn't.
I think once oil gets past $125 it can cause a recession in the US. That's what I'm hearing.
I am far more concerned about 5 to 10 hydrogen bombs hitting the 65 underground missel silos located less than 70 miles north of my house.
This crisis has a legitimate chance of going nuclear ....and we have an old dementia sufferer leading our side.
And it will all be Russia's fault. Not excessive sovereign power interdiction in free markets. Not massive federal deficit spending causing spiraling inflation. Not the fed raising interest rates. Russia. War. Not Biden's fault. Did you hear me? DEMOCRAT POLICES HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH THIS RECESSION.Doc Holliday said:
Stone cold reality: There is no scenario where Ukraine expels Russian forces.Spot on. I'm glad NATO didn't get involved.Quote:Quote:Ukraine is going to fall, Russia will halt oil to Europe when NATO/US responds and China will take Taiwan. The entire west will go into a MASSIVE recession due to soaring energy prices.Quote:
For all that can be said about Russian strategic miscalculation and tactical incompetence, Russia has always dominated Ukraine and will continue to do so for the next few weeks/months at minimum. It will extract concessions from this or a future Ukranian regime. The road back to true Ukrainian independence involves long, grinding insurgency, against long odds.
So long as Russia has a Tsar (and make no mistake, Putin is the Tsar and the "oligarchs" are the Boyars), Russia will act like Russia is acting right now.
It's inevitable.
High energy costs helped bring about the last recession .
Agreed....Ukraine is doomed . They never stood a chance once NATO decided not to get involved. Which was absolutely the right decision .
Putin is going to get all puffy over his latest conquest . Some countries will no doubt begin kissing his ass.
Baltic States just go to be ****ting in their pants ....doubt they have any real faith in NATO at this point.
I sure wouldn't.
I think once oil gets past $125 it can cause a recession in the US. That's what I'm hearing.