ATL Bear said:

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Canada2017 said:

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ATL Bear said:

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Conquering Ukraine is one thing. Keeping Ukraine is another.

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Russians know how to brutalize eastern Europeans into submission for decades .

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No, they left that up to local despots under Soviet rule, and their record of success since the break up hasn't been impressive. Ukraine with likely bleed them long term, and the world will treat them like the oppressors they become.

---

Local despots were trained and supported by their Russian overlords .

Impressive ? Georgia and Crimea ; no public dissent .



The world will demand some level of 'normalcy' soon enough . Ethics is almost always trumped by money and selfishness .



Bottom line...........only tough-legitimate sanctions have any chance to make a difference. For them to make a difference Ukraine will have to hold on for at least a few months .


And that is highly unlikely .

Want $48,000? Are you Russian? Here's how!

Ukraine Offers to Pay Russians Who Surrender, While Pentagon Assesses Moscow’s Nuke Posture https://t.co/YP3IhNoGT5 via @DefenseOne @TaraCopp

— Kevin Baron (@DefenseBaron) February 28, 2022

Oldbear83 said:

---

"Putin is quite a bit much much smarter than his internet detractors."

My English friend today told me 'Putin has a case of the clevers'.

That is, he has outsmarted himself.

Putin cannot keep Ukraine, and the price just to take it is far higher than he expected.

---

He doesn't need to keep it.
He needs Ukraine to be too afraid to try to join NATO or EU.

Putin is in a very strong position. It doesn't matter what has happened to his army or campaign thus far. There is a 40mi long column of Russian might headed to surround Kiev. Ukraine might be able to stop the Russian army, but there is no short-term scenario where Ukraine can expel that army anywhere it is currently camped.

We are witnessing something not seen in hundreds of years.....a proper siege of a city (a number of them, actually)....an army camped outside the walls, waiting out a surrender not of an army, but of a people. The Russian army will lob enough ordnance to destabilize civil administration, and keep tightening the noose, trying not to turn 2022 Kiev into 1944 Stalingrad but to force Ukrainian leadership to make hard choices about how much pain (and for how long) the Ukrainian people should be asked to endure. Eventually, submission and planning for insurgency starts to look more and more palatable than rat soup.

Putin doesn't want to roll thru Ukraine like we rolled thru Iraq.
Putin doesn't want to install a new regime.
If he does that, he's got the Pottery Barn principle to deal with - he broke it, now he's got to fix it.

Putin wants to slowly strangle Ukraine, for the purpose of forcing the existing government of Ukraine to submit, to sign documents declaring loyalty to Moscow, to pay tribute to Moscow. When he gets those things (and he's far more likely to get them today than he was two weeks ago), he will go home. And for the next few decades, Ukrainian leadership will remember what it was like that time they made Moscow mad. And even if insurgency erupts after the Russian Army leaves victorious.....whatever regime remains in Kiev will be loathe to dally too much with the West, until and unless insurgency replaces them. Putin will have what he wants, and Ukrainian puppets to enforce it.

So now not being able to beat Ukraine in the time frame first stated is a strategy? This is all by design? You guys give Putin way too much credit. He miscalculated, his military is not what he thought and the Ukraine President is outperforming him. Those are the facts, this guy is not the international superman you think. It is more peoples unrealistic fear that he will start a nuclear war, so don't dare do anything to he warms not to.

We see it on this Board, dint risk nuclear war which equates to give Putin what he wants, the US on the sidelines. That 40 mile convoy would last a half hour with the US in the game. Nah, this isn't by design. It is because of fearful people thinking hiding in a hole will stop a despot, that is the wrong tactic.

whiterock said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

"Putin is quite a bit much much smarter than his internet detractors."

My English friend today told me 'Putin has a case of the clevers'.

That is, he has outsmarted himself.

Putin cannot keep Ukraine, and the price just to take it is far higher than he expected.

---

He doesn't need to keep it.
He needs Ukraine to be too afraid to try to join NATO or EU.

Putin is in a very strong position. It doesn't matter what has happened to his army or campaign thus far. There is a 40mi long column of Russian might headed to surround Kiev. Ukraine might be able to stop the Russian army, but there is no short-term scenario where Ukraine can expel that army anywhere it is currently camped.

We are witnessing something not seen in hundreds of years.....a proper siege of a city (a number of them, actually)....an army camped outside the walls, waiting out a surrender not of an army, but of a people. The Russian army will lob enough ordnance to destabilize civil administration, and keep tightening the noose, trying not to turn 2022 Kiev into 1944 Stalingrad but to force Ukrainian leadership to make hard choices about how much pain (and for how long) the Ukrainian people should be asked to endure. Eventually, submission and planning for insurgency starts to look more and more palatable than rat soup.

Putin doesn't want to roll thru Ukraine like we rolled thru Iraq.
Putin doesn't want to install a new regime.
If he does that, he's got the Pottery Barn principle to deal with - he broke it, now he's got to fix it.

Putin wants to slowly strangle Ukraine, for the purpose of forcing the existing government of Ukraine to submit, to sign documents declaring loyalty to Moscow, to pay tribute to Moscow. When he gets those things (and he's far more likely to get them today than he was two weeks ago), he will go home. And for the next few decades, Ukrainian leadership will remember what it was like that time they made Moscow mad. And even if insurgency erupts after the Russian Army leaves victorious.....whatever regime remains in Kiev will be loathe to dally too much with the West, until and unless insurgency replaces them. Putin will have what he wants, and Ukrainian puppets to enforce it.

---

Just start loading up ordinance planes from the UN with food and medicines to do drops into Kyiv and other cities. Put Russia in the position of having to choose to shoot down humanitarian assistance for the world to see. Starving out to surrender is way too old school for today's world.

ATL Bear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

"Putin is quite a bit much much smarter than his internet detractors."

My English friend today told me 'Putin has a case of the clevers'.

That is, he has outsmarted himself.

Putin cannot keep Ukraine, and the price just to take it is far higher than he expected.

---

He doesn't need to keep it.
He needs Ukraine to be too afraid to try to join NATO or EU.

Putin is in a very strong position. It doesn't matter what has happened to his army or campaign thus far. There is a 40mi long column of Russian might headed to surround Kiev. Ukraine might be able to stop the Russian army, but there is no short-term scenario where Ukraine can expel that army anywhere it is currently camped.

We are witnessing something not seen in hundreds of years.....a proper siege of a city (a number of them, actually)....an army camped outside the walls, waiting out a surrender not of an army, but of a people. The Russian army will lob enough ordnance to destabilize civil administration, and keep tightening the noose, trying not to turn 2022 Kiev into 1944 Stalingrad but to force Ukrainian leadership to make hard choices about how much pain (and for how long) the Ukrainian people should be asked to endure. Eventually, submission and planning for insurgency starts to look more and more palatable than rat soup.

Putin doesn't want to roll thru Ukraine like we rolled thru Iraq.
Putin doesn't want to install a new regime.
If he does that, he's got the Pottery Barn principle to deal with - he broke it, now he's got to fix it.

Putin wants to slowly strangle Ukraine, for the purpose of forcing the existing government of Ukraine to submit, to sign documents declaring loyalty to Moscow, to pay tribute to Moscow. When he gets those things (and he's far more likely to get them today than he was two weeks ago), he will go home. And for the next few decades, Ukrainian leadership will remember what it was like that time they made Moscow mad. And even if insurgency erupts after the Russian Army leaves victorious.....whatever regime remains in Kiev will be loathe to dally too much with the West, until and unless insurgency replaces them. Putin will have what he wants, and Ukrainian puppets to enforce it.

---

Just start loading up ordinance planes from the UN with food and medicines to do drops into Kyiv and other cities. Put Russia in the position of having to choose to shoot down humanitarian assistance for the world to see. Starving out to surrender is way too old school for today's world.

---

An airlift? Are you kidding, we can't get this group to acknowledge that Ukraine exists, never mind actually do something to preserve it.

sanctions are working - much better than I thought and faster. only been a week.

cant access or move frozen money. ruble now worth less than a penny. russian central bank cant really do a damn thing. airspace closed where it matters most. germany boosting military spending.....

long lines for the average russian citizen. banks failing. oligarchs grousing. some newspapers now openly calling for russia to leave ukraine. and so on.......

- KKM

need OPEC to boost production.

RMF5630 said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

"Putin is quite a bit much much smarter than his internet detractors."

My English friend today told me 'Putin has a case of the clevers'.

That is, he has outsmarted himself.

Putin cannot keep Ukraine, and the price just to take it is far higher than he expected.

---

He doesn't need to keep it.
He needs Ukraine to be too afraid to try to join NATO or EU.

Putin is in a very strong position. It doesn't matter what has happened to his army or campaign thus far. There is a 40mi long column of Russian might headed to surround Kiev. Ukraine might be able to stop the Russian army, but there is no short-term scenario where Ukraine can expel that army anywhere it is currently camped.

We are witnessing something not seen in hundreds of years.....a proper siege of a city (a number of them, actually)....an army camped outside the walls, waiting out a surrender not of an army, but of a people. The Russian army will lob enough ordnance to destabilize civil administration, and keep tightening the noose, trying not to turn 2022 Kiev into 1944 Stalingrad but to force Ukrainian leadership to make hard choices about how much pain (and for how long) the Ukrainian people should be asked to endure. Eventually, submission and planning for insurgency starts to look more and more palatable than rat soup.

Putin doesn't want to roll thru Ukraine like we rolled thru Iraq.
Putin doesn't want to install a new regime.
If he does that, he's got the Pottery Barn principle to deal with - he broke it, now he's got to fix it.

Putin wants to slowly strangle Ukraine, for the purpose of forcing the existing government of Ukraine to submit, to sign documents declaring loyalty to Moscow, to pay tribute to Moscow. When he gets those things (and he's far more likely to get them today than he was two weeks ago), he will go home. And for the next few decades, Ukrainian leadership will remember what it was like that time they made Moscow mad. And even if insurgency erupts after the Russian Army leaves victorious.....whatever regime remains in Kiev will be loathe to dally too much with the West, until and unless insurgency replaces them. Putin will have what he wants, and Ukrainian puppets to enforce it.

---

Just start loading up ordinance planes from the UN with food and medicines to do drops into Kyiv and other cities. Put Russia in the position of having to choose to shoot down humanitarian assistance for the world to see. Starving out to surrender is way too old school for today's world.

---

An airlift? Are you kidding, we can't get this group to acknowledge that Ukraine exists, never mind actually do something to preserve it.

---

Airdrop not airlift. The pics of devastation and tragedy would continue to flow out of Ukraine. The humanitarian "crisis" idea would pick up steam if Whiterock's mentioned tactic is used.

ATL Bear said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

"Putin is quite a bit much much smarter than his internet detractors."

My English friend today told me 'Putin has a case of the clevers'.

That is, he has outsmarted himself.

Putin cannot keep Ukraine, and the price just to take it is far higher than he expected.

---

He doesn't need to keep it.
He needs Ukraine to be too afraid to try to join NATO or EU.

Putin is in a very strong position. It doesn't matter what has happened to his army or campaign thus far. There is a 40mi long column of Russian might headed to surround Kiev. Ukraine might be able to stop the Russian army, but there is no short-term scenario where Ukraine can expel that army anywhere it is currently camped.

We are witnessing something not seen in hundreds of years.....a proper siege of a city (a number of them, actually)....an army camped outside the walls, waiting out a surrender not of an army, but of a people. The Russian army will lob enough ordnance to destabilize civil administration, and keep tightening the noose, trying not to turn 2022 Kiev into 1944 Stalingrad but to force Ukrainian leadership to make hard choices about how much pain (and for how long) the Ukrainian people should be asked to endure. Eventually, submission and planning for insurgency starts to look more and more palatable than rat soup.

Putin doesn't want to roll thru Ukraine like we rolled thru Iraq.
Putin doesn't want to install a new regime.
If he does that, he's got the Pottery Barn principle to deal with - he broke it, now he's got to fix it.

Putin wants to slowly strangle Ukraine, for the purpose of forcing the existing government of Ukraine to submit, to sign documents declaring loyalty to Moscow, to pay tribute to Moscow. When he gets those things (and he's far more likely to get them today than he was two weeks ago), he will go home. And for the next few decades, Ukrainian leadership will remember what it was like that time they made Moscow mad. And even if insurgency erupts after the Russian Army leaves victorious.....whatever regime remains in Kiev will be loathe to dally too much with the West, until and unless insurgency replaces them. Putin will have what he wants, and Ukrainian puppets to enforce it.

---

Just start loading up ordinance planes from the UN with food and medicines to do drops into Kyiv and other cities. Put Russia in the position of having to choose to shoot down humanitarian assistance for the world to see. Starving out to surrender is way too old school for today's world.

---

An airlift? Are you kidding, we can't get this group to acknowledge that Ukraine exists, never mind actually do something to preserve it.

---

Airdrop not airlift. The pics of devastation and tragedy would continue to flow out of Ukraine. The humanitarian "crisis" idea would pick up steam if Whiterock's mentioned tactic is used.

---

Got to be a few C-130s floating around out there.

ATL Bear said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

"Putin is quite a bit much much smarter than his internet detractors."

My English friend today told me 'Putin has a case of the clevers'.

That is, he has outsmarted himself.

Putin cannot keep Ukraine, and the price just to take it is far higher than he expected.

---

He doesn't need to keep it.
He needs Ukraine to be too afraid to try to join NATO or EU.

Putin is in a very strong position. It doesn't matter what has happened to his army or campaign thus far. There is a 40mi long column of Russian might headed to surround Kiev. Ukraine might be able to stop the Russian army, but there is no short-term scenario where Ukraine can expel that army anywhere it is currently camped.

We are witnessing something not seen in hundreds of years.....a proper siege of a city (a number of them, actually)....an army camped outside the walls, waiting out a surrender not of an army, but of a people. The Russian army will lob enough ordnance to destabilize civil administration, and keep tightening the noose, trying not to turn 2022 Kiev into 1944 Stalingrad but to force Ukrainian leadership to make hard choices about how much pain (and for how long) the Ukrainian people should be asked to endure. Eventually, submission and planning for insurgency starts to look more and more palatable than rat soup.

Putin doesn't want to roll thru Ukraine like we rolled thru Iraq.
Putin doesn't want to install a new regime.
If he does that, he's got the Pottery Barn principle to deal with - he broke it, now he's got to fix it.

Putin wants to slowly strangle Ukraine, for the purpose of forcing the existing government of Ukraine to submit, to sign documents declaring loyalty to Moscow, to pay tribute to Moscow. When he gets those things (and he's far more likely to get them today than he was two weeks ago), he will go home. And for the next few decades, Ukrainian leadership will remember what it was like that time they made Moscow mad. And even if insurgency erupts after the Russian Army leaves victorious.....whatever regime remains in Kiev will be loathe to dally too much with the West, until and unless insurgency replaces them. Putin will have what he wants, and Ukrainian puppets to enforce it.

---

Just start loading up ordinance planes from the UN with food and medicines to do drops into Kyiv and other cities. Put Russia in the position of having to choose to shoot down humanitarian assistance for the world to see. Starving out to surrender is way too old school for today's world.

---

An airlift? Are you kidding, we can't get this group to acknowledge that Ukraine exists, never mind actually do something to preserve it.

---

Airdrop not airlift. The pics of devastation and tragedy would continue to flow out of Ukraine. The humanitarian "crisis" idea would pick up steam if Whiterock's mentioned tactic is used.

---

I was joking around. We don't have the political will to do an airlift anymore.

RMF5630 said:

---

So now not being able to beat Ukraine in the time frame first stated is a strategy? This is all by design? You guys give Putin way too much credit. He miscalculated, his military is not what he thought and the Ukraine President is outperforming him. Those are the facts, this guy is not the international superman you think. It is more peoples unrealistic fear that he will start a nuclear war, so don't dare do anything to he warms not to.

We see it on this Board, dint risk nuclear war which equates to give Putin what he wants, the US on the sidelines. That 40 mile convoy would last a half hour with the US in the game. Nah, this isn't by design. It is because of fearful people thinking hiding in a hole will stop a despot, that is the wrong tactic.

---

A crazy man with nukes he can launch.

It's not a good scenario with Kim or with Putin and it sure wasn't one with Trump.

Somebody needs to take one for the team and assassinate Putin, and the sooner the better. But COVID isn't the only reason he's staying far away from everybody.

RMF5630 said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

"Putin is quite a bit much much smarter than his internet detractors."

My English friend today told me 'Putin has a case of the clevers'.

That is, he has outsmarted himself.

Putin cannot keep Ukraine, and the price just to take it is far higher than he expected.

---

He doesn't need to keep it.
He needs Ukraine to be too afraid to try to join NATO or EU.

Putin is in a very strong position. It doesn't matter what has happened to his army or campaign thus far. There is a 40mi long column of Russian might headed to surround Kiev. Ukraine might be able to stop the Russian army, but there is no short-term scenario where Ukraine can expel that army anywhere it is currently camped.

We are witnessing something not seen in hundreds of years.....a proper siege of a city (a number of them, actually)....an army camped outside the walls, waiting out a surrender not of an army, but of a people. The Russian army will lob enough ordnance to destabilize civil administration, and keep tightening the noose, trying not to turn 2022 Kiev into 1944 Stalingrad but to force Ukrainian leadership to make hard choices about how much pain (and for how long) the Ukrainian people should be asked to endure. Eventually, submission and planning for insurgency starts to look more and more palatable than rat soup.

Putin doesn't want to roll thru Ukraine like we rolled thru Iraq.
Putin doesn't want to install a new regime.
If he does that, he's got the Pottery Barn principle to deal with - he broke it, now he's got to fix it.

Putin wants to slowly strangle Ukraine, for the purpose of forcing the existing government of Ukraine to submit, to sign documents declaring loyalty to Moscow, to pay tribute to Moscow. When he gets those things (and he's far more likely to get them today than he was two weeks ago), he will go home. And for the next few decades, Ukrainian leadership will remember what it was like that time they made Moscow mad. And even if insurgency erupts after the Russian Army leaves victorious.....whatever regime remains in Kiev will be loathe to dally too much with the West, until and unless insurgency replaces them. Putin will have what he wants, and Ukrainian puppets to enforce it.

---

Just start loading up ordinance planes from the UN with food and medicines to do drops into Kyiv and other cities. Put Russia in the position of having to choose to shoot down humanitarian assistance for the world to see. Starving out to surrender is way too old school for today's world.

---

An airlift? Are you kidding, we can't get this group to acknowledge that Ukraine exists, never mind actually do something to preserve it.

---

Airdrop not airlift. The pics of devastation and tragedy would continue to flow out of Ukraine. The humanitarian "crisis" idea would pick up steam if Whiterock's mentioned tactic is used.

---

I was joking around. We don't have the political will to do an airlift anymore.

---

Out of sheer curiosity, how would you respond if Biden and other world leaders asked people to make some sacrifices to defend Ukraine like we did in the 1940s to fight the Nazis?

All the GOP yelping about energy has me thinking that too many Americans are with Ukraine until they can't get as many cheap Chinese goods at Walmart and have to pay more for energy.

J.B.Katz said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

So now not being able to beat Ukraine in the time frame first stated is a strategy? This is all by design? You guys give Putin way too much credit. He miscalculated, his military is not what he thought and the Ukraine President is outperforming him. Those are the facts, this guy is not the international superman you think. It is more peoples unrealistic fear that he will start a nuclear war, so don't dare do anything to he warms not to.

We see it on this Board, dint risk nuclear war which equates to give Putin what he wants, the US on the sidelines. That 40 mile convoy would last a half hour with the US in the game. Nah, this isn't by design. It is because of fearful people thinking hiding in a hole will stop a despot, that is the wrong tactic.

---

A crazy man with nukes he can launch.

It's not a good scenario with Kim or with Putin and it sure wasn't one with Trump.

Somebody needs to take one for the team and assassinate Putin, and the sooner the better. But COVID isn't the only reason he's staying far away from everybody.

---

Ok, let's think this through. Standing up to Putin over the Ukraine will unleash nuclear hell. But, a suicide mission assassination attempt on Putin in Moscow is a safe play?

RMF5630 said:

---

J.B.Katz said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

So now not being able to beat Ukraine in the time frame first stated is a strategy? This is all by design? You guys give Putin way too much credit. He miscalculated, his military is not what he thought and the Ukraine President is outperforming him. Those are the facts, this guy is not the international superman you think. It is more peoples unrealistic fear that he will start a nuclear war, so don't dare do anything to he warms not to.

We see it on this Board, dint risk nuclear war which equates to give Putin what he wants, the US on the sidelines. That 40 mile convoy would last a half hour with the US in the game. Nah, this isn't by design. It is because of fearful people thinking hiding in a hole will stop a despot, that is the wrong tactic.

---

A crazy man with nukes he can launch.

It's not a good scenario with Kim or with Putin and it sure wasn't one with Trump.

Somebody needs to take one for the team and assassinate Putin, and the sooner the better. But COVID isn't the only reason he's staying far away from everybody.

---

Ok, let's think this through. Standing up to Putin over the Ukraine will unleash nuclear hell. But, a suicide mission assassination attempt on Putin in Moscow is a safe play?

---

Depends on who assassinates him.

RMF5630 said:

---

J.B.Katz said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

So now not being able to beat Ukraine in the time frame first stated is a strategy? This is all by design? You guys give Putin way too much credit. He miscalculated, his military is not what he thought and the Ukraine President is outperforming him. Those are the facts, this guy is not the international superman you think. It is more peoples unrealistic fear that he will start a nuclear war, so don't dare do anything to he warms not to.

We see it on this Board, dint risk nuclear war which equates to give Putin what he wants, the US on the sidelines. That 40 mile convoy would last a half hour with the US in the game. Nah, this isn't by design. It is because of fearful people thinking hiding in a hole will stop a despot, that is the wrong tactic.

---

A crazy man with nukes he can launch.

It's not a good scenario with Kim or with Putin and it sure wasn't one with Trump.

Somebody needs to take one for the team and assassinate Putin, and the sooner the better. But COVID isn't the only reason he's staying far away from everybody.

---

Ok, let's think this through. Standing up to Putin over the Ukraine will unleash nuclear hell. But, a suicide mission assassination attempt on Putin in Moscow is a safe play?

---

I think having a few Red Cross marked aircraft make humanitarian drops to a couple of Ukrainian cities is exactly the kind of asymmetrical play to make. Would Putin really shoot down humanitarian aid airplanes? If he did, it would further isolate him. If he doesn't, he's set the precedent that he'll tolerate it. Then expand the IRC drops to cities further east. Then a few hours later to Kiev. Along the way, make sure to drop some cigarettes and vodka to the Russian columns by mistake.....(to prove there are no munitions on board).

Why don't we have a vote in the UN to cross the Polish, Slovak, Hungarian, and Romanian border to set UNRA staging posts 10 miles inside Ukraine? I mean, if Putin is going to "break Ukraine," then why not get a jump start on the clean up? Would save him/Russia from having to mess with it. GO ahead. Let him kill some UN aid workers.

We should spare no effort to throw thumbtacks in Putin's path. Every time he waves his gun, stick a rose in the barrel. He's not going to nuke anyone for stuff like that.

whiterock said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

J.B.Katz said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

So now not being able to beat Ukraine in the time frame first stated is a strategy? This is all by design? You guys give Putin way too much credit. He miscalculated, his military is not what he thought and the Ukraine President is outperforming him. Those are the facts, this guy is not the international superman you think. It is more peoples unrealistic fear that he will start a nuclear war, so don't dare do anything to he warms not to.

We see it on this Board, dint risk nuclear war which equates to give Putin what he wants, the US on the sidelines. That 40 mile convoy would last a half hour with the US in the game. Nah, this isn't by design. It is because of fearful people thinking hiding in a hole will stop a despot, that is the wrong tactic.

---

A crazy man with nukes he can launch.

It's not a good scenario with Kim or with Putin and it sure wasn't one with Trump.

Somebody needs to take one for the team and assassinate Putin, and the sooner the better. But COVID isn't the only reason he's staying far away from everybody.

---

Ok, let's think this through. Standing up to Putin over the Ukraine will unleash nuclear hell. But, a suicide mission assassination attempt on Putin in Moscow is a safe play?

---

I think having a few Red Cross marked aircraft make humanitarian drops to a couple of Ukrainian cities is exactly the kind of asymmetrical play to make. Would Putin really shoot down humanitarian aid airplanes? If he did, it would further isolate him. If he doesn't, he's set the precedent that he'll tolerate it. Then expand the IRC drops to cities further east. Then a few hours later to Kiev. Along the way, make sure to drop some cigarettes and vodka to the Russian columns by mistake.....(to prove there are no munitions on board).

Why don't we have a vote in the UN to cross the Polish, Slovak, Hungarian, and Romanian border to set UNRA staging posts 10 miles inside Ukraine? I mean, if Putin is going to "break Ukraine," then why not get a jump start on the clean up? Would save him/Russia from having to mess with it. GO ahead. Let him kill some UN aid workers.

We should spare no effort to throw thumbtacks in Putin's path. Every time he waves his gun, stick a rose in the barrel. He's not going to nuke anyone for stuff like that.

---

He is not nuking anyone. Unless he has Stage 4 cancer we don't know about and is going to take the whole world with him, he isn't using nukes. He loves himself too much.

RMF5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

J.B.Katz said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

So now not being able to beat Ukraine in the time frame first stated is a strategy? This is all by design? You guys give Putin way too much credit. He miscalculated, his military is not what he thought and the Ukraine President is outperforming him. Those are the facts, this guy is not the international superman you think. It is more peoples unrealistic fear that he will start a nuclear war, so don't dare do anything to he warms not to.

We see it on this Board, dint risk nuclear war which equates to give Putin what he wants, the US on the sidelines. That 40 mile convoy would last a half hour with the US in the game. Nah, this isn't by design. It is because of fearful people thinking hiding in a hole will stop a despot, that is the wrong tactic.

---

A crazy man with nukes he can launch.

It's not a good scenario with Kim or with Putin and it sure wasn't one with Trump.

Somebody needs to take one for the team and assassinate Putin, and the sooner the better. But COVID isn't the only reason he's staying far away from everybody.

---

Ok, let's think this through. Standing up to Putin over the Ukraine will unleash nuclear hell. But, a suicide mission assassination attempt on Putin in Moscow is a safe play?

---

I think having a few Red Cross marked aircraft make humanitarian drops to a couple of Ukrainian cities is exactly the kind of asymmetrical play to make. Would Putin really shoot down humanitarian aid airplanes? If he did, it would further isolate him. If he doesn't, he's set the precedent that he'll tolerate it. Then expand the IRC drops to cities further east. Then a few hours later to Kiev. Along the way, make sure to drop some cigarettes and vodka to the Russian columns by mistake.....(to prove there are no munitions on board).

Why don't we have a vote in the UN to cross the Polish, Slovak, Hungarian, and Romanian border to set UNRA staging posts 10 miles inside Ukraine? I mean, if Putin is going to "break Ukraine," then why not get a jump start on the clean up? Would save him/Russia from having to mess with it. GO ahead. Let him kill some UN aid workers.

We should spare no effort to throw thumbtacks in Putin's path. Every time he waves his gun, stick a rose in the barrel. He's not going to nuke anyone for stuff like that.

---

He is not nuking anyone. Unless he has Stage 4 cancer we don't know about and is going to take the whole world with him, he isn't using nukes. He loves himself too much.

---

and his kids and grandkids....

Recent history is rife with dictators who didn't give a damn about human life.

Mao, Stalin, Saddam Hussein , and Pol Pot ...just to name a few .


And Putin has repeatedly stated that a world without a strong Russia doesn't interest him .

J.B.Katz said:

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RMF5630 said:

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So now not being able to beat Ukraine in the time frame first stated is a strategy? This is all by design? You guys give Putin way too much credit. He miscalculated, his military is not what he thought and the Ukraine President is outperforming him. Those are the facts, this guy is not the international superman you think. It is more peoples unrealistic fear that he will start a nuclear war, so don't dare do anything to he warms not to.

We see it on this Board, dint risk nuclear war which equates to give Putin what he wants, the US on the sidelines. That 40 mile convoy would last a half hour with the US in the game. Nah, this isn't by design. It is because of fearful people thinking hiding in a hole will stop a despot, that is the wrong tactic.

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Somebody needs to take one for the team and assassinate Putin, and the sooner the better. But COVID isn't the only reason he's staying far away from everybody.

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Climate change?

Hell of a risk to those pilots if they *do* shoot them down.

GrowlTowel said:

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J.B.Katz said:

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RMF5630 said:

---

So now not being able to beat Ukraine in the time frame first stated is a strategy? This is all by design? You guys give Putin way too much credit. He miscalculated, his military is not what he thought and the Ukraine President is outperforming him. Those are the facts, this guy is not the international superman you think. It is more peoples unrealistic fear that he will start a nuclear war, so don't dare do anything to he warms not to.

We see it on this Board, dint risk nuclear war which equates to give Putin what he wants, the US on the sidelines. That 40 mile convoy would last a half hour with the US in the game. Nah, this isn't by design. It is because of fearful people thinking hiding in a hole will stop a despot, that is the wrong tactic.

---

Somebody needs to take one for the team and assassinate Putin, and the sooner the better. But COVID isn't the only reason he's staying far away from everybody.

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Climate change?

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She thinks he's trans and admires his tr@nny gumption.

Canada2017 said:

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Recent history is rife with dictators who didn't give a damn about human life.

Mao, Stalin, Saddam Hussein , and Pol Pot ...just to name a few .


And Putin has repeatedly stated that a world without a strong Russia doesn't interest him .

---

And his thoughts on a world with no Russia? That's the result of thermonuclear war. And your list is robust with mass killers, but they mostly did it to their own people, not someone else's.

OK, hear me out, I have an idea that could save British taxpayer £280M. https://t.co/LVnHqouL3M

— Andy Netherwood (@AndyNetherwood) March 2, 2022

whiterock said:

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Oldbear83 said:

---

"Putin is quite a bit much much smarter than his internet detractors."

My English friend today told me 'Putin has a case of the clevers'.

That is, he has outsmarted himself.

Putin cannot keep Ukraine, and the price just to take it is far higher than he expected.

---

He doesn't need to keep it.
He needs Ukraine to be too afraid to try to join NATO or EU.

Putin is in a very strong position. It doesn't matter what has happened to his army or campaign thus far. There is a 40mi long column of Russian might headed to surround Kiev. Ukraine might be able to stop the Russian army, but there is no short-term scenario where Ukraine can expel that army anywhere it is currently camped.

We are witnessing something not seen in hundreds of years.....a proper siege of a city (a number of them, actually)....an army camped outside the walls, waiting out a surrender not of an army, but of a people. The Russian army will lob enough ordnance to destabilize civil administration, and keep tightening the noose, trying not to turn 2022 Kiev into 1944 Stalingrad but to force Ukrainian leadership to make hard choices about how much pain (and for how long) the Ukrainian people should be asked to endure. Eventually, submission and planning for insurgency starts to look more and more palatable than rat soup.

Putin doesn't want to roll thru Ukraine like we rolled thru Iraq.
Putin doesn't want to install a new regime.
If he does that, he's got the Pottery Barn principle to deal with - he broke it, now he's got to fix it.

Putin wants to slowly strangle Ukraine, for the purpose of forcing the existing government of Ukraine to submit, to sign documents declaring loyalty to Moscow, to pay tribute to Moscow. When he gets those things (and he's far more likely to get them today than he was two weeks ago), he will go home. And for the next few decades, Ukrainian leadership will remember what it was like that time they made Moscow mad. And even if insurgency erupts after the Russian Army leaves victorious.....whatever regime remains in Kiev will be loathe to dally too much with the West, until and unless insurgency replaces them. Putin will have what he wants, and Ukrainian puppets to enforce it.

---

That doesn't look like a 40mi Russian might. That looks like a death trap formation.

I'm just a dude in Texas and that formation makes no sense to me. It could be a decoy intended to pull the Ukrainians off sides b

Babushka, stay strong! We love you. https://t.co/kqdCtLJcTz

— Gary Shteyngart (@Shteyngart) March 2, 2022

Just an FYI, but Putin doesn't have some red button next to his bed that fires missiles. They have a similar protocol for nuclear launch like we do. It's not a one man operational chain.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10569027/Charred-remains-Putins-tanks-lie-smouldering-street-Russian-death-toll-climbs.html

Brave Ukrainian girls stands up to Russian troops who are about to tear down her family home.



….Oh wait sorry it's Israeli troops

ATL Bear said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

Recent history is rife with dictators who didn't give a damn about human life.

Mao, Stalin, Saddam Hussein , and Pol Pot ...just to name a few .


And Putin has repeatedly stated that a world without a strong Russia doesn't interest him .

---

And his thoughts on a world with no Russia? That's the result of thermonuclear war. And your list is robust with mass killers, but they mostly did it to their own people, not someone else's.

---

Hitler -Jews, Gypsies, Slavs, Catholics,

Stalin-Jews Ukrainians, Georgians

Saddam Hussein - Kurds

whiterock said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

"Putin is quite a bit much much smarter than his internet detractors."

My English friend today told me 'Putin has a case of the clevers'.

That is, he has outsmarted himself.

Putin cannot keep Ukraine, and the price just to take it is far higher than he expected.

---

He doesn't need to keep it.
He needs Ukraine to be too afraid to try to join NATO or EU.

Putin is in a very strong position. It doesn't matter what has happened to his army or campaign thus far. There is a 40mi long column of Russian might headed to surround Kiev. Ukraine might be able to stop the Russian army, but there is no short-term scenario where Ukraine can expel that army anywhere it is currently camped.

We are witnessing something not seen in hundreds of years.....a proper siege of a city (a number of them, actually)....an army camped outside the walls, waiting out a surrender not of an army, but of a people. The Russian army will lob enough ordnance to destabilize civil administration, and keep tightening the noose, trying not to turn 2022 Kiev into 1944 Stalingrad but to force Ukrainian leadership to make hard choices about how much pain (and for how long) the Ukrainian people should be asked to endure. Eventually, submission and planning for insurgency starts to look more and more palatable than rat soup.

Putin doesn't want to roll thru Ukraine like we rolled thru Iraq.
Putin doesn't want to install a new regime.
If he does that, he's got the Pottery Barn principle to deal with - he broke it, now he's got to fix it.

Putin wants to slowly strangle Ukraine, for the purpose of forcing the existing government of Ukraine to submit, to sign documents declaring loyalty to Moscow, to pay tribute to Moscow. When he gets those things (and he's far more likely to get them today than he was two weeks ago), he will go home. And for the next few decades, Ukrainian leadership will remember what it was like that time they made Moscow mad. And even if insurgency erupts after the Russian Army leaves victorious.....whatever regime remains in Kiev will be loathe to dally too much with the West, until and unless insurgency replaces them. Putin will have what he wants, and Ukrainian puppets to enforce it.

---

A lot of medieval sieges failed. Crusades had plenty. Hundred Years War. Etc.

jupiter said:

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OK, hear me out, I have an idea that could save British taxpayer £280M. https://t.co/LVnHqouL3M

— Andy Netherwood (@AndyNetherwood) March 2, 2022

---

Let's buy it and park outside the stadium during games. Im in fir $100.

quash said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

"Putin is quite a bit much much smarter than his internet detractors."

My English friend today told me 'Putin has a case of the clevers'.

That is, he has outsmarted himself.

Putin cannot keep Ukraine, and the price just to take it is far higher than he expected.

---

He doesn't need to keep it.
He needs Ukraine to be too afraid to try to join NATO or EU.

Putin is in a very strong position. It doesn't matter what has happened to his army or campaign thus far. There is a 40mi long column of Russian might headed to surround Kiev. Ukraine might be able to stop the Russian army, but there is no short-term scenario where Ukraine can expel that army anywhere it is currently camped.

We are witnessing something not seen in hundreds of years.....a proper siege of a city (a number of them, actually)....an army camped outside the walls, waiting out a surrender not of an army, but of a people. The Russian army will lob enough ordnance to destabilize civil administration, and keep tightening the noose, trying not to turn 2022 Kiev into 1944 Stalingrad but to force Ukrainian leadership to make hard choices about how much pain (and for how long) the Ukrainian people should be asked to endure. Eventually, submission and planning for insurgency starts to look more and more palatable than rat soup.

Putin doesn't want to roll thru Ukraine like we rolled thru Iraq.
Putin doesn't want to install a new regime.
If he does that, he's got the Pottery Barn principle to deal with - he broke it, now he's got to fix it.

Putin wants to slowly strangle Ukraine, for the purpose of forcing the existing government of Ukraine to submit, to sign documents declaring loyalty to Moscow, to pay tribute to Moscow. When he gets those things (and he's far more likely to get them today than he was two weeks ago), he will go home. And for the next few decades, Ukrainian leadership will remember what it was like that time they made Moscow mad. And even if insurgency erupts after the Russian Army leaves victorious.....whatever regime remains in Kiev will be loathe to dally too much with the West, until and unless insurgency replaces them. Putin will have what he wants, and Ukrainian puppets to enforce it.

---

A lot of medieval sieges failed. Crusades had plenty. Hundred Years War. Etc.

---

This one won't. There's too many Russians and no relief forces are going to be coming.

tommie said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

"Putin is quite a bit much much smarter than his internet detractors."

My English friend today told me 'Putin has a case of the clevers'.

That is, he has outsmarted himself.

Putin cannot keep Ukraine, and the price just to take it is far higher than he expected.

---

He doesn't need to keep it.
He needs Ukraine to be too afraid to try to join NATO or EU.

Putin is in a very strong position. It doesn't matter what has happened to his army or campaign thus far. There is a 40mi long column of Russian might headed to surround Kiev. Ukraine might be able to stop the Russian army, but there is no short-term scenario where Ukraine can expel that army anywhere it is currently camped.

We are witnessing something not seen in hundreds of years.....a proper siege of a city (a number of them, actually)....an army camped outside the walls, waiting out a surrender not of an army, but of a people. The Russian army will lob enough ordnance to destabilize civil administration, and keep tightening the noose, trying not to turn 2022 Kiev into 1944 Stalingrad but to force Ukrainian leadership to make hard choices about how much pain (and for how long) the Ukrainian people should be asked to endure. Eventually, submission and planning for insurgency starts to look more and more palatable than rat soup.

Putin doesn't want to roll thru Ukraine like we rolled thru Iraq.
Putin doesn't want to install a new regime.
If he does that, he's got the Pottery Barn principle to deal with - he broke it, now he's got to fix it.

Putin wants to slowly strangle Ukraine, for the purpose of forcing the existing government of Ukraine to submit, to sign documents declaring loyalty to Moscow, to pay tribute to Moscow. When he gets those things (and he's far more likely to get them today than he was two weeks ago), he will go home. And for the next few decades, Ukrainian leadership will remember what it was like that time they made Moscow mad. And even if insurgency erupts after the Russian Army leaves victorious.....whatever regime remains in Kiev will be loathe to dally too much with the West, until and unless insurgency replaces them. Putin will have what he wants, and Ukrainian puppets to enforce it.

---

That doesn't look like a 40mi Russian might. That looks like a death trap formation.

I'm just a dude in Texas and that formation makes no sense to me. It could be a decoy intended to pull the Ukrainians off sides b

---

Res Ipsa Loquitur: if the Ukranian military doesn't turn that formation into exactly the death trap you cite, then the Ukrainian military is no significant threat to Russian forces. Incompetence, inability, etc....doesn't matter. Either the column stops, or it advances.

i.e. perhaps Russia formed that column up on roads because it knew it could.

whiterock said:

---

tommie said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

"Putin is quite a bit much much smarter than his internet detractors."

My English friend today told me 'Putin has a case of the clevers'.

That is, he has outsmarted himself.

Putin cannot keep Ukraine, and the price just to take it is far higher than he expected.

---

He doesn't need to keep it.
He needs Ukraine to be too afraid to try to join NATO or EU.

Putin is in a very strong position. It doesn't matter what has happened to his army or campaign thus far. There is a 40mi long column of Russian might headed to surround Kiev. Ukraine might be able to stop the Russian army, but there is no short-term scenario where Ukraine can expel that army anywhere it is currently camped.

We are witnessing something not seen in hundreds of years.....a proper siege of a city (a number of them, actually)....an army camped outside the walls, waiting out a surrender not of an army, but of a people. The Russian army will lob enough ordnance to destabilize civil administration, and keep tightening the noose, trying not to turn 2022 Kiev into 1944 Stalingrad but to force Ukrainian leadership to make hard choices about how much pain (and for how long) the Ukrainian people should be asked to endure. Eventually, submission and planning for insurgency starts to look more and more palatable than rat soup.

Putin doesn't want to roll thru Ukraine like we rolled thru Iraq.
Putin doesn't want to install a new regime.
If he does that, he's got the Pottery Barn principle to deal with - he broke it, now he's got to fix it.

Putin wants to slowly strangle Ukraine, for the purpose of forcing the existing government of Ukraine to submit, to sign documents declaring loyalty to Moscow, to pay tribute to Moscow. When he gets those things (and he's far more likely to get them today than he was two weeks ago), he will go home. And for the next few decades, Ukrainian leadership will remember what it was like that time they made Moscow mad. And even if insurgency erupts after the Russian Army leaves victorious.....whatever regime remains in Kiev will be loathe to dally too much with the West, until and unless insurgency replaces them. Putin will have what he wants, and Ukrainian puppets to enforce it.

---

That doesn't look like a 40mi Russian might. That looks like a death trap formation.

I'm just a dude in Texas and that formation makes no sense to me. It could be a decoy intended to pull the Ukrainians off sides b

---

Res Ipsa Loquitur: if the Ukranian military doesn't turn that formation into exactly the death trap you cite, then the Ukrainian military is no significant threat to Russian forces. Incompetence, inability, etc....doesn't matter. Either the column stops, or it advances.

i.e. perhaps Russia formed that column up on roads because it knew it could.

---

Not sure Ukraine has enough control of the air or resources to exploit it at this point.

RMF5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

tommie said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

"Putin is quite a bit much much smarter than his internet detractors."

My English friend today told me 'Putin has a case of the clevers'.

That is, he has outsmarted himself.

Putin cannot keep Ukraine, and the price just to take it is far higher than he expected.

---

He doesn't need to keep it.
He needs Ukraine to be too afraid to try to join NATO or EU.

Putin is in a very strong position. It doesn't matter what has happened to his army or campaign thus far. There is a 40mi long column of Russian might headed to surround Kiev. Ukraine might be able to stop the Russian army, but there is no short-term scenario where Ukraine can expel that army anywhere it is currently camped.

We are witnessing something not seen in hundreds of years.....a proper siege of a city (a number of them, actually)....an army camped outside the walls, waiting out a surrender not of an army, but of a people. The Russian army will lob enough ordnance to destabilize civil administration, and keep tightening the noose, trying not to turn 2022 Kiev into 1944 Stalingrad but to force Ukrainian leadership to make hard choices about how much pain (and for how long) the Ukrainian people should be asked to endure. Eventually, submission and planning for insurgency starts to look more and more palatable than rat soup.

Putin doesn't want to roll thru Ukraine like we rolled thru Iraq.
Putin doesn't want to install a new regime.
If he does that, he's got the Pottery Barn principle to deal with - he broke it, now he's got to fix it.

Putin wants to slowly strangle Ukraine, for the purpose of forcing the existing government of Ukraine to submit, to sign documents declaring loyalty to Moscow, to pay tribute to Moscow. When he gets those things (and he's far more likely to get them today than he was two weeks ago), he will go home. And for the next few decades, Ukrainian leadership will remember what it was like that time they made Moscow mad. And even if insurgency erupts after the Russian Army leaves victorious.....whatever regime remains in Kiev will be loathe to dally too much with the West, until and unless insurgency replaces them. Putin will have what he wants, and Ukrainian puppets to enforce it.

---

That doesn't look like a 40mi Russian might. That looks like a death trap formation.

I'm just a dude in Texas and that formation makes no sense to me. It could be a decoy intended to pull the Ukrainians off sides b

---

Res Ipsa Loquitur: if the Ukranian military doesn't turn that formation into exactly the death trap you cite, then the Ukrainian military is no significant threat to Russian forces. Incompetence, inability, etc....doesn't matter. Either the column stops, or it advances.

i.e. perhaps Russia formed that column up on roads because it knew it could.

---

Not sure Ukraine has enough control of the air or resources to exploit it at this point.

---

Stone cold reality: There is no scenario where Ukraine expels Russian forces.

For all that can be said about Russian strategic miscalculation and tactical incompetence, Russia has always dominated Ukraine and will continue to do so for the next few weeks/months at minimum. It will extract concessions from this or a future Ukranian regime. The road back to true Ukrainian independence involves long, grinding insurgency, against long odds.

So long as Russia has a Tsar (and make no mistake, Putin is the Tsar and the "oligarchs" are the Boyars), Russia will act like Russia is acting right now.