https://www.hudson.org/research/17637-a-winning-strategy-in-ukraineGood assessment.
Those who think providing Polish Migs to Ukraine will invite nuclear war are not thinking clearly.
Russia is not going to escalate a blitzkrieg turned into nearly static war of attrition over provision of dated military hardware to Ukraine. We've already openly supplied the Stingers & Javelins that stalled the Russian advance, so the amount of escalation we would be engaging in is minimally incremental. Moreover, given the situation on the ground, Russia simply does not have the resources to broaden the conflict at this time. They have both hands on a tar baby.
In fact, a stronger case can be made that NOT providing more open assistance to Ukraine will only embolden Russia. We...the west in general and America in particular....should never flinch for a moment to openly support the self-determination of free nations. Our rhetoric should talk about an independent Ukraine, free of foreign intimidation, free to pursue it's own path in world affairs, to include requesting membership in NATO and the EU. None of that obligates the USA to agree to Ukrainian membership in NATO, which we should also state does not appear to be in our interests.
Russia is being Russia - using brute force to obtain by war what it could not secure with peace. America should be America, and make Russia pay dearly for such behavior, with enough support that the only reason Ukraine would lose is Ukrainian lack of skill or resolve. Failure to do that sets up Moldova and the Caucasus states for exactly what we are witnessing now.
if we short-arm our response, we lose conventional deterrence, and have only nuclear deterrence left. So if you fear nuclear war, you need to start hugging this cactus.