Redbrickbear said:

---

timetraveler said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

Yep,

I think it is very stupid for Germany to give up its nuclear and coal plants.

But they did elect the SDP (socialist-liberal party) and the Greens (far left) into power in the last election.

I also don't think they are serious about shutting down Nord steam 2 pipeline long term...they have halted it right now because of the diplomatic crisis...but they will no doubt eventually fully open it.

The Germans have halted just the "certification" of the pipeline...but the pipeline is already completed. Basically, they are just saying they will not yet sign off on the last step right now.

The German government will eventually have no choice...if they are not going to have nuclear or coal power...they will have to burn natural gas from Russia. And the pipeline is the cheapest most effective way to do that.

---

If China decides to take advantage of their leverage instead of put pressure on NATO then Russia is going to crumble. Germany won't have an energy crisis anytime soon but certainly is going to continue to see increased prices. I expect they rollback some nuclear closures or at least stop the ones they have planned to shutdown. If the sanctions last then I also suspect NATO countries to share the burden.

Long term Russia is really putting a lot of faith in their Chinese relationship though.

---

What would China get out of a Russian collapse?

Right now they get a reliable source of materials for their growing industry from Russia (timber, coal, natural gas, iron ore, etc)

They get a reliable vote at the UN security council (China and Russia now vote together as much as the USA and UK do)

And they get an ally to their north that sees the USA as a threat the same as the Chinese do.

The Chinese might decided to knee cap the Russians but I don't see why they would do so.

---

There is a huge amount to gain from China with respects to strong arming Russia. The history between those countries is a lot worse than ours.

I think your UN security council is actually one of the biggest reasons China might actually screw over Russia on this. Russia is running out of friends in this world and if they are calling in favors for trade deals China is going to want secure that vote.

It really seems more like catapult diplomacy right now where Russia seems to be moving towards China but might slingshot back to the west over the next decade. I just don't see that relationship blossoming when it's based mostly on hating the west.

D. C. Bear said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

D. C. Bear said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

D. C. Bear said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

D. C. Bear said:

---

bularry said:

---

midgett said:

---

Read recently (can't find the article) about Putin's negotiating style. This is how he was taught coming up in the Russian leadership.

You go to the meeting. You take your armed thugs with you. The other party will come to the meeting and bring their armed thugs, too.

If the two parties can't negotiate a deal acceptable to both parties, blood will spill. No one wants there to be blood on their own side.

If the other party doesn't come armed, you decide all the details of the deal.

If true, Putin is looking for weakness. He knows if the US shows a strong hand and the willingness to use it, that an agreement must be reached. If the US doesn't show a strong hand, he's gonna do what he wants.

It'll be interesting to see if Putin thinks Biden is serious. If not, Ukraine may be Russia's soon.

---

Does Russia want all of Ukraine? or just that Eastern strip? I'm not sure

---

Just the Sudetenland.

---

Serious question.

Do you think fighting a war in 1938 to stop ethnic Germans from joining a united Germany would have been the correct call?

---

Yes.

---

Are you looking back with 20/20 vision...with the knowledge that Hitler would later violate that agreement.

Not putting yourself in the shoes of world leaders at the time.

No one in 1938 thought it was just to fight a war like that over the Sudetenland... compromise was what the people of Europe, America, and the world wanted.

You are also engaging in a logical fallacy of post world war II.....every political rival is Hitler and every crisis is Munich 1938.

---

Taking on Hitler in 1938 would have been the right call. (Based on the situation at the time, not just in hindsight). That is all I am saying.

---

I don't see how anything would have been different...expect that the Allies would not have the justification that Hitler's later invasion of Poland gave.

The Germans would have smashed the French and British just like they did in 1939.

The Soviets would have remained neutral and kept their friendship-alliance pack with Germany.

The British would have retreated to the home island...and begged the American for support.

And the Americans would have stayed out of it...for a least another two years of so.

WWII in Europe would have played out the same way...just starting earlier.

---

I do not believe the Germans were in a position to smash the French and British in 1938. Neither did Hitler's generals.

---

[In Britain the Military leadership generally favored appeasement. In 1938, the Royal Navy approved appeasement regarding Munich because it calculated that at that moment, Britain lacked the political and military resources to intervene and still maintain an imperial defense capability.

Public opinion in Britain throughout the 1930s was frightened by the prospect of German terror bombing of British cities, as they had started to do in the First World War. The media emphasized the dangers, and the general consensus was that defense was impossible and, as Prime Minister Stanley Baldwin had said in 1932 "The bomber will always get through". However, the Royal Air Force had two major weapons systems in the worksbetter interceptors (Hurricanes and Spitfires) and especially radar. These promised to counter the German bombing offensive. However they were not yet ready, so that appeasement was necessary to cause a delay. Specifically regarding the fighters, the RAF warned the government in October 1938 that the German bombers would probably get through: "the situation... will be definitely unsatisfactory."]

In France among the military there was even less of a desire for War.

https://dailyhistory.org/Why_was_France_defeated_in_1940

Its why the French devoted a considerable amount of resources and capital to the construction of the Maginot Line. They were scared of taking on the Germans in the open. And we see why.

"But what if the British and French had held firm at Munich? Two basic responses were possible. The less interesting answer is that Hitler actually preferred a war over Czechoslovakia to a diplomatic settlement, that the Germans had a detailed plan -Case Green- for such a war, and that if Chamberlain and Daladier had rebuffed Hitler, he would probably have executed that plan"

Redbrickbear said:

---

timetraveler said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

Yep,

I think it is very stupid for Germany to give up its nuclear and coal plants.

But they did elect the SDP (socialist-liberal party) and the Greens (far left) into power in the last election.

I also don't think they are serious about shutting down Nord steam 2 pipeline long term...they have halted it right now because of the diplomatic crisis...but they will no doubt eventually fully open it.

The Germans have halted just the "certification" of the pipeline...but the pipeline is already completed. Basically, they are just saying they will not yet sign off on the last step right now.

The German government will eventually have no choice...if they are not going to have nuclear or coal power...they will have to burn natural gas from Russia. And the pipeline is the cheapest most effective way to do that.

---

If China decides to take advantage of their leverage instead of put pressure on NATO then Russia is going to crumble. Germany won't have an energy crisis anytime soon but certainly is going to continue to see increased prices. I expect they rollback some nuclear closures or at least stop the ones they have planned to shutdown. If the sanctions last then I also suspect NATO countries to share the burden.

Long term Russia is really putting a lot of faith in their Chinese relationship though.

---

What would China get out of a Russian collapse?

Right now they get a reliable source of materials for their growing industry from Russia (timber, coal, natural gas, iron ore, etc)

They get a reliable vote at the UN security council (China and Russia now vote together as much as the USA and UK do)

And they get an ally to their north that sees the USA as a threat the same as the Chinese do.

The Chinese might decided to knee cap the Russians but I don't see why they would do so.

---

One China, that is why.

RMF5630 said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

timetraveler said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

Yep,

I think it is very stupid for Germany to give up its nuclear and coal plants.

But they did elect the SDP (socialist-liberal party) and the Greens (far left) into power in the last election.

I also don't think they are serious about shutting down Nord steam 2 pipeline long term...they have halted it right now because of the diplomatic crisis...but they will no doubt eventually fully open it.

The Germans have halted just the "certification" of the pipeline...but the pipeline is already completed. Basically, they are just saying they will not yet sign off on the last step right now.

The German government will eventually have no choice...if they are not going to have nuclear or coal power...they will have to burn natural gas from Russia. And the pipeline is the cheapest most effective way to do that.

---

If China decides to take advantage of their leverage instead of put pressure on NATO then Russia is going to crumble. Germany won't have an energy crisis anytime soon but certainly is going to continue to see increased prices. I expect they rollback some nuclear closures or at least stop the ones they have planned to shutdown. If the sanctions last then I also suspect NATO countries to share the burden.

Long term Russia is really putting a lot of faith in their Chinese relationship though.

---

What would China get out of a Russian collapse?

Right now they get a reliable source of materials for their growing industry from Russia (timber, coal, natural gas, iron ore, etc)

They get a reliable vote at the UN security council (China and Russia now vote together as much as the USA and UK do)

And they get an ally to their north that sees the USA as a threat the same as the Chinese do.

The Chinese might decided to knee cap the Russians but I don't see why they would do so.

---

One China, that is why.

---

China is going to have a hard time doing that since Russia is armed with nukes.

And China will be dealing with a aging and declining population throughout the 21st century.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/2190995/chinas-population-could-halve-within-next-45-years-new-study-warns#:~:text=China's%20current%20population%20is%20over,population%20would%20halve%20by%202100

Chinese fertility rate is now 1.3...well below replacement at 2.1

Chinese population is also declining in the West and Northeast as Chinese move to the coastal cities in the central and southeastern heartlands for work.

Redbrickbear said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

timetraveler said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

Yep,

I think it is very stupid for Germany to give up its nuclear and coal plants.

But they did elect the SDP (socialist-liberal party) and the Greens (far left) into power in the last election.

I also don't think they are serious about shutting down Nord steam 2 pipeline long term...they have halted it right now because of the diplomatic crisis...but they will no doubt eventually fully open it.

The Germans have halted just the "certification" of the pipeline...but the pipeline is already completed. Basically, they are just saying they will not yet sign off on the last step right now.

The German government will eventually have no choice...if they are not going to have nuclear or coal power...they will have to burn natural gas from Russia. And the pipeline is the cheapest most effective way to do that.

---

If China decides to take advantage of their leverage instead of put pressure on NATO then Russia is going to crumble. Germany won't have an energy crisis anytime soon but certainly is going to continue to see increased prices. I expect they rollback some nuclear closures or at least stop the ones they have planned to shutdown. If the sanctions last then I also suspect NATO countries to share the burden.

Long term Russia is really putting a lot of faith in their Chinese relationship though.

---

What would China get out of a Russian collapse?

Right now they get a reliable source of materials for their growing industry from Russia (timber, coal, natural gas, iron ore, etc)

They get a reliable vote at the UN security council (China and Russia now vote together as much as the USA and UK do)

And they get an ally to their north that sees the USA as a threat the same as the Chinese do.

The Chinese might decided to knee cap the Russians but I don't see why they would do so.

---

One China, that is why.

---

China is going to have a hard time doing that since Russia is armed with nukes.

And China will be dealing with a aging and declining population throughout the 21st century.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/2190995/chinas-population-could-halve-within-next-45-years-new-study-warns#:~:text=China's%20current%20population%20is%20over,population%20would%20halve%20by%202100

Chinese fertility rate is now 1.3...well below replacement at 2.1

---

You underestimate Xi.

The point is China may not have a hard time doing it. It's exactly what I've been trying to say. They will have all the leverage.

Currently: Entire west is against them and will sanction heavily
Soon: All of Asia (except China) will sanction Russia. This should happen because the US has leverage over them for China Sea expansion and of course Taiwan.
2030: China has been Russia's only friend for years and now decides Russia is a made up country and have a mutual agreement that China expands their back porch.

timetraveler said:

---

The point is China may not have a hard time doing it. It's exactly what I've been trying to say. They will have all the leverage.

Currently: Entire west is against them and will sanction heavily
Soon: All of Asia (except China) will sanction Russia. This should happen because the US has leverage over them for China Sea expansion and of course Taiwan.
2030: China has been Russia's only friend for years and now decides Russia is a made up country and have a mutual agreement that China expands their back porch.

---

I mean it could happen.

But it would leave China isolated once Russia is gone....surrounded by S. Korea, Japan, Australia, Philippines, USA, etc.

I also don't think China is interested in trying to get a hold of Siberia...or that it has the ethnic Chinese immigrants to settle it even if it did. China is running out of productive age workers and it needs the ones it has to fuel the rise of their great economic cities on the coasts.

I see a much more likely situation where China backs Russia on taking eastern Ukraine back....and then has Russia back them on taking Taiwan back.

Canon said:

---

J.R. said:

---

timetraveler said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

J.R. said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

Uh oh

JUST IN - Germany suspends the approval process for the Russian-German Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline, Chancellor Scholz announced.

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) February 22, 2022

---

Good on Germany, finally.

---

Freezing their citizens is good?

Getting the middle of an Anglo-America vs Russia fight is good?

Germany does not want to get in the middle of a fight like that with enemies on two fronts.

---

How many germans are going to freeze during this spring for shutting down a pipeline that has never had gas in it?

---

exactly. He has no clue what he is talking about, per the usual.

---

Also, germany was incredibly foolish to get rid of nuclear power.

---

Good observation .

Still another example of 'feel good' policies resulting in horrible realities .

Canada2017 said:

---

Canon said:

---

J.R. said:

---

timetraveler said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

J.R. said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

Uh oh

JUST IN - Germany suspends the approval process for the Russian-German Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline, Chancellor Scholz announced.

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) February 22, 2022

---

Good on Germany, finally.

---

Freezing their citizens is good?

Getting the middle of an Anglo-America vs Russia fight is good?

Germany does not want to get in the middle of a fight like that with enemies on two fronts.

---

How many germans are going to freeze during this spring for shutting down a pipeline that has never had gas in it?

---

exactly. He has no clue what he is talking about, per the usual.

---

Also, germany was incredibly foolish to get rid of nuclear power.

---

Good observation .

Still another example of 'feel good' policies resulting in horrible realities .

---

In Germany's case it isn't all feel good. They've had a huge base against nuclear since the 70s. It comes back in every election cycle. After Chernobyl they would have been ok switching to coal.

It's time to stop comparing this to WWII. Different time and different type of warfare, diplomacy and alliances. Or if you think it warrants the comparison, then just say you're going all in and make the moves into the Black Sea region and get the boots on the ground to fight a war.

ATL Bear said:

---

It's time to stop comparing this to WWII. Different time and different type of warfare, diplomacy and alliances. Or if you think it warrants the comparison, then just say you're going all in and make the moves into the Black Sea region and get the boots on the ground to fight a war.

---

For liberals and neocons it's always Hitler and 1938

ATL Bear said:

---

It's time to stop comparing this to WWII. Different time and different type of warfare, diplomacy and alliances. Or if you think it warrants the comparison, then just say you're going all in and make the moves into the Black Sea region and get the boots on the ground to fight a war.

---

Well, war is not tactically fought the way it was in WWII. The Cold War and microelectronics have given us a great many more tactics than we had to combat Hitler. That doesn't obviate the fact that this is effectively an exact analog to Hitler's invasion of Poland and for the same reasons.

Canon said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

It's time to stop comparing this to WWII. Different time and different type of warfare, diplomacy and alliances. Or if you think it warrants the comparison, then just say you're going all in and make the moves into the Black Sea region and get the boots on the ground to fight a war.

---

Well, war is not tactically fought the way it was in WWII. The Cold War and microelectronics have given us a great many more tactics than we had to combat Hitler. That doesn't obviate the fact that this is effectively an exact analog to Hitler's invasion of Poland and for the same reasons.

---

Zero parallel. Rising power vs dying power desperate for relevance and a buffer from getting squeezed out. We've been tightening the noose for 2 decades.

Keep our eye on the ball. It's headquartered in Beijing.

Guys, taxpayers just paid $300 million per day for the last 20 years. Think about that.

When Musk says government has a monopoly on war, he's talking about the kind of power and access to money that makes public opposition and even thousands of dead soldiers, immaterial.

'Honest' and 'Biden' are at opposite ends of the spectrum from one another.

Pitchers throws like he is trying to rope a calf

ATL Bear said:

---

Canon said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

It's time to stop comparing this to WWII. Different time and different type of warfare, diplomacy and alliances. Or if you think it warrants the comparison, then just say you're going all in and make the moves into the Black Sea region and get the boots on the ground to fight a war.

---

Well, war is not tactically fought the way it was in WWII. The Cold War and microelectronics have given us a great many more tactics than we had to combat Hitler. That doesn't obviate the fact that this is effectively an exact analog to Hitler's invasion of Poland and for the same reasons.

---

Zero parallel. Rising power vs dying power desperate for relevance and a buffer from getting squeezed out. We've been tightening the noose for 2 decades.

Keep our eye on the ball. It's headquartered in Beijing.

---

They just became a supply store for China.

Watch the currency. Biden is talking ruining Russian banking. You think Xi won't jump on that? Watch yen pick up load. That is part of chibas end game.

Sam Lowry said:

---

william said:

---

Canon said:

---

william said:

---

this will be putin's undoing.

bonehead move.

---

How? Who will stand up to him?

---

the rest of the world - unprovoked attack - all he will have is xi (and he will fold once he sees the world reax) and maybe iran.

all he gets is looking like an unstable criminal thug - wh/ everyone knows he is - now his idiocy will embolden those who were willing to work him on some scale to break and effectively sever ties.

- KKM

nord2 will be closed and russia can sell oil to china and iran.

they will be shut off from world markets in fuel and finance.

---

Interesting take on Putin's planning against the world reaction:

https://www.nationalreview.com/2022/02/putin-has-methodically-planned-to-invade-ukraine-and-deflect-western-retaliation/

---

Why are people upset because some rowdy tourists are visiting Ukraine? Not an invasion, just tourists

It's tough being a borderland. From Herodotus to today, with Vikings, Slavs, Poles, Lithuanians, Swedes, etc. laying claim over the centuries.

The Kievan Rus (Rus = rowers) were a Viking riverine empire that ran slaves (Slavs) south and silver north

I'm sorry....what?

The U.S. economy has been hit with increased gas prices, inflation, and supply-chain issues due to the Ukraine crisis. https://t.co/d9dwXWpcvf

— CBS News (@CBSNews) February 23, 2022

talk about propaganda...I suppose all the MSM have this talking point. What a shame

Jack Bauer said:

---

I'm sorry....what?

The U.S. economy has been hit with increased gas prices, inflation, and supply-chain issues due to the Ukraine crisis. https://t.co/d9dwXWpcvf

— CBS News (@CBSNews) February 23, 2022

---

You think our economy will be unaffected?

On Nord Stream 2, @PressSec says Biden’s opposition to sanctions last month and Biden’s support of sanctions this month is not a shift in policy

🤨🤨🤨

— Chad Gilmartin (@ChadGilmartinCA) February 23, 2022

Great question from CNN's @KaitlanCollins: "Last month, the WH opposed an effort on Capitol Hill to put sanctions on this pipeline. Last year...Biden waived the sanctions...Today, he is imposing [them]....Can you just explain the changes?"

Psaki says it's not "a shift at all" pic.twitter.com/jIeId1ZgTa

— Curtis Houck (@CurtisHouck) February 23, 2022

That should do it...

We found it guys. The absolute worst Ukraine take, among stiff competition. pic.twitter.com/1oMnTT8pK3

— Inez Stepman ⚪️🔴⚪️ (@InezFeltscher) February 23, 2022

quash said:

---

It's tough being a borderland. From Herodotus to today, with Vikings, Slavs, Poles, Lithuanians, Swedes, etc. laying claim over the centuries.

The Kievan Rus (Rus = rowers) were a Viking riverine empire that ran slaves (Slavs) south and silver north

---

/CSB warning ... my daughter continually surprises me. Today she engaged me in an hour-long discussion of European history, ethnicity, nationalism, and how all this led to this crisis.

📌Wow—cleaver sleuths uncovered that Putin actually signed the agreement to recognize the “independent” breakaway regions HOURS BEFORE (~10:15am) the Russian security council meeting was later held around noon to discuss the independence request for recognition! 🔥 https://t.co/NaxCDdT6JD

— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) February 22, 2022

To my fellow Americans now praising Putin, please remember - 1 - this is Viktor Yushchenko, poisoned with dioxin in 2004 as he ran against the pro-Russian candidate for president. pic.twitter.com/87B8U15baa

— Jim Sciutto (@jimsciutto) February 23, 2022

quash said:

---

It's tough being a borderland. From Herodotus to today, with Vikings, Slavs, Poles, Lithuanians, Swedes, etc. laying claim over the centuries.

The Kievan Rus (Rus = rowers) were a Viking riverine empire that ran slaves (Slavs) south and silver north

---

And, in what I think is the clearest (and undiscussed anywhere) historical parallel: the Rus fought (and defeated) Catholic crusaders to save their way of life, then spun on a dime and pledged fealty to the Mongols, who were (unlike the Livonian League), quite happy to let the Rus be the Rus. That freed up Novgorod to consolidate power in much of the old Kieran Rus.

Putin thinks he's Alexander Nevsky reincarnated.

REPORTER to Biden: “Do you think you may have underestimated Putin?”

BIDEN: *smirks, stares blankly, picks at his teeth*
pic.twitter.com/H8JOsSUei7

— Matt Batzel (@MattBatzel) February 22, 2022

Many underestimated President Zelensky, the former late night comedian. He is no Ashraf Ghani. He did not run. He delivered a dignified speech to rally his nation to fight for their freedom. Astonishing. https://t.co/5tfADnzjDx

— Jennifer Griffin (@JenGriffinFNC) February 24, 2022

Noting that Putin is demanding the "denazification" of a country led by an elected Jewish president.

— Jeffrey Goldberg (@JeffreyGoldberg) February 24, 2022

In apparent warning to the United States and NATO, Putin says in televised speech announcing war: “A couple of words for those who would be tempted to intervene. Russia will respond immediately and you will have consequences that you never have had before in your history.”

— Jennifer Griffin (@JenGriffinFNC) February 24, 2022

Putin is calling out the leaders of the West as a bunch of pu$$ies.......and daring them to prove him wrong.

Germany is the key.

If they mobilize .......France and Great Britain might .

Seize the yachts and planes.

Seize the condos and mansions.

Seize their bank accounts.

Ship their kids home.

— Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) February 24, 2022