whiterock said:

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Doc Holliday said:

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Stone cold reality: There is no scenario where Ukraine expels Russian forces.

Quote:

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Quote:

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Quote:

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For all that can be said about Russian strategic miscalculation and tactical incompetence, Russia has always dominated Ukraine and will continue to do so for the next few weeks/months at minimum. It will extract concessions from this or a future Ukranian regime. The road back to true Ukrainian independence involves long, grinding insurgency, against long odds.

So long as Russia has a Tsar (and make no mistake, Putin is the Tsar and the "oligarchs" are the Boyars), Russia will act like Russia is acting right now.

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Ukraine is going to fall, Russia will halt oil to Europe when NATO/US responds and China will take Taiwan. The entire west will go into a MASSIVE recession due to soaring energy prices.

It's inevitable.

---

High energy costs helped bring about the last recession .

Agreed....Ukraine is doomed . They never stood a chance once NATO decided not to get involved. Which was absolutely the right decision .

Putin is going to get all puffy over his latest conquest . Some countries will no doubt begin kissing his ass.

Baltic States just go to be ****ting in their pants ....doubt they have any real faith in NATO at this point.

I sure wouldn't.

---

Spot on. I'm glad NATO didn't get involved.

I think once oil gets past $125 it can cause a recession in the US. That's what I'm hearing.

---

And it will all be Russia's fault. Not excessive sovereign power interdiction in free markets. Not massive federal deficit spending causing spiraling inflation. Not the fed raising interest rates. Russia. War. Not Biden's fault. Did you hear me? DEMOCRAT POLICES HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH THIS RECESSION.

---

Even today, 41% of American voters still approve of Joe Biden's job performance .

41% of our electorate are either blind, ignorant ...or so devoted to 'their' team that they simply can't adjust their mind set.

There is no saving the terminally stupid .

whiterock said:

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quash said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

"Putin is quite a bit much much smarter than his internet detractors."

My English friend today told me 'Putin has a case of the clevers'.

That is, he has outsmarted himself.

Putin cannot keep Ukraine, and the price just to take it is far higher than he expected.

---

He doesn't need to keep it.
He needs Ukraine to be too afraid to try to join NATO or EU.

Putin is in a very strong position. It doesn't matter what has happened to his army or campaign thus far. There is a 40mi long column of Russian might headed to surround Kiev. Ukraine might be able to stop the Russian army, but there is no short-term scenario where Ukraine can expel that army anywhere it is currently camped.

We are witnessing something not seen in hundreds of years.....a proper siege of a city (a number of them, actually)....an army camped outside the walls, waiting out a surrender not of an army, but of a people. The Russian army will lob enough ordnance to destabilize civil administration, and keep tightening the noose, trying not to turn 2022 Kiev into 1944 Stalingrad but to force Ukrainian leadership to make hard choices about how much pain (and for how long) the Ukrainian people should be asked to endure. Eventually, submission and planning for insurgency starts to look more and more palatable than rat soup.

Putin doesn't want to roll thru Ukraine like we rolled thru Iraq.
Putin doesn't want to install a new regime.
If he does that, he's got the Pottery Barn principle to deal with - he broke it, now he's got to fix it.

Putin wants to slowly strangle Ukraine, for the purpose of forcing the existing government of Ukraine to submit, to sign documents declaring loyalty to Moscow, to pay tribute to Moscow. When he gets those things (and he's far more likely to get them today than he was two weeks ago), he will go home. And for the next few decades, Ukrainian leadership will remember what it was like that time they made Moscow mad. And even if insurgency erupts after the Russian Army leaves victorious.....whatever regime remains in Kiev will be loathe to dally too much with the West, until and unless insurgency replaces them. Putin will have what he wants, and Ukrainian puppets to enforce it.

---

A lot of medieval sieges failed. Crusades had plenty. Hundred Years War. Etc.

---

This one won't. There's too many Russians and no relief forces are going to be coming.

---

We'll see. What you omit is that the economy of the besieger is under siege.

I have mentioned for years on here the Libertarian point that trade ties offer more security than tariffs or military alliances. Russia is learning that firsthand, China secondhand.

Well, the lesson is there. It remains to be see if the interested countries will learn.

quash said:

---

whiterock said:

---

quash said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

"Putin is quite a bit much much smarter than his internet detractors."

My English friend today told me 'Putin has a case of the clevers'.

That is, he has outsmarted himself.

Putin cannot keep Ukraine, and the price just to take it is far higher than he expected.

---

He doesn't need to keep it.
He needs Ukraine to be too afraid to try to join NATO or EU.

Putin is in a very strong position. It doesn't matter what has happened to his army or campaign thus far. There is a 40mi long column of Russian might headed to surround Kiev. Ukraine might be able to stop the Russian army, but there is no short-term scenario where Ukraine can expel that army anywhere it is currently camped.

We are witnessing something not seen in hundreds of years.....a proper siege of a city (a number of them, actually)....an army camped outside the walls, waiting out a surrender not of an army, but of a people. The Russian army will lob enough ordnance to destabilize civil administration, and keep tightening the noose, trying not to turn 2022 Kiev into 1944 Stalingrad but to force Ukrainian leadership to make hard choices about how much pain (and for how long) the Ukrainian people should be asked to endure. Eventually, submission and planning for insurgency starts to look more and more palatable than rat soup.

Putin doesn't want to roll thru Ukraine like we rolled thru Iraq.
Putin doesn't want to install a new regime.
If he does that, he's got the Pottery Barn principle to deal with - he broke it, now he's got to fix it.

Putin wants to slowly strangle Ukraine, for the purpose of forcing the existing government of Ukraine to submit, to sign documents declaring loyalty to Moscow, to pay tribute to Moscow. When he gets those things (and he's far more likely to get them today than he was two weeks ago), he will go home. And for the next few decades, Ukrainian leadership will remember what it was like that time they made Moscow mad. And even if insurgency erupts after the Russian Army leaves victorious.....whatever regime remains in Kiev will be loathe to dally too much with the West, until and unless insurgency replaces them. Putin will have what he wants, and Ukrainian puppets to enforce it.

---

A lot of medieval sieges failed. Crusades had plenty. Hundred Years War. Etc.

---

This one won't. There's too many Russians and no relief forces are going to be coming.

---

We'll see. What you omit is that the economy of the besieger is under siege.

I have mentioned for years on here the Libertarian point that trade ties offer more security than tariffs or military alliances. Russia is learning that firsthand, China secondhand.

---

Globalism did not deter this aggression.
Globalism has not slowed it a bit.
Globalism may afford tools to choke down the Russian economy years into the future.
In the meantime…….

Russia is a third world country with nuclear weapons, a gas station masquerading as a country, etc….. No other nation of peoples match Russian capacity to absorb pain and suffering. But they do understand a little bit about the use of national power.

Maybe all of that will change.

But so far, Not. Russia is wrecking Ukraine, slowly, deliberately, with ever increasing pressure, to demonstrate that Russia is the big dog is the
Dneiper River watershed…..when it wants to be.

And until we start drilling oil/gas wells and reopening coal mines, that isn't going to change.

whiterock said:

---

quash said:

---

whiterock said:

---

quash said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

"Putin is quite a bit much much smarter than his internet detractors."

My English friend today told me 'Putin has a case of the clevers'.

That is, he has outsmarted himself.

Putin cannot keep Ukraine, and the price just to take it is far higher than he expected.

---

He doesn't need to keep it.
He needs Ukraine to be too afraid to try to join NATO or EU.

Putin is in a very strong position. It doesn't matter what has happened to his army or campaign thus far. There is a 40mi long column of Russian might headed to surround Kiev. Ukraine might be able to stop the Russian army, but there is no short-term scenario where Ukraine can expel that army anywhere it is currently camped.

We are witnessing something not seen in hundreds of years.....a proper siege of a city (a number of them, actually)....an army camped outside the walls, waiting out a surrender not of an army, but of a people. The Russian army will lob enough ordnance to destabilize civil administration, and keep tightening the noose, trying not to turn 2022 Kiev into 1944 Stalingrad but to force Ukrainian leadership to make hard choices about how much pain (and for how long) the Ukrainian people should be asked to endure. Eventually, submission and planning for insurgency starts to look more and more palatable than rat soup.

Putin doesn't want to roll thru Ukraine like we rolled thru Iraq.
Putin doesn't want to install a new regime.
If he does that, he's got the Pottery Barn principle to deal with - he broke it, now he's got to fix it.

Putin wants to slowly strangle Ukraine, for the purpose of forcing the existing government of Ukraine to submit, to sign documents declaring loyalty to Moscow, to pay tribute to Moscow. When he gets those things (and he's far more likely to get them today than he was two weeks ago), he will go home. And for the next few decades, Ukrainian leadership will remember what it was like that time they made Moscow mad. And even if insurgency erupts after the Russian Army leaves victorious.....whatever regime remains in Kiev will be loathe to dally too much with the West, until and unless insurgency replaces them. Putin will have what he wants, and Ukrainian puppets to enforce it.

---

A lot of medieval sieges failed. Crusades had plenty. Hundred Years War. Etc.

---

This one won't. There's too many Russians and no relief forces are going to be coming.

---

We'll see. What you omit is that the economy of the besieger is under siege.

I have mentioned for years on here the Libertarian point that trade ties offer more security than tariffs or military alliances. Russia is learning that firsthand, China secondhand.

---

Russia is a third world country with nuclear weapons, a gas station masquerading as a country, etc….. No other nation of peoples match Russian capacity to absorb pain and suffering.

But so far, Not. Russia is wrecking Ukraine, slowly, deliberately, with ever increasing pressure, to demonstrate that Russia is the big dog is the
Dneiper River watershed…..when it wants to be.

---

20 years ago your description of Russia was correct. However years of natural gas and oil exports have upgraded the country to 2nd world status.

You are correct . Russia is wrecking Ukraine . Suspect the winter weather is slowing down the Russian advance as least as much as the Ukrainian military .

Canada2017 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

quash said:

---

whiterock said:

---

quash said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

"Putin is quite a bit much much smarter than his internet detractors."

My English friend today told me 'Putin has a case of the clevers'.

That is, he has outsmarted himself.

Putin cannot keep Ukraine, and the price just to take it is far higher than he expected.

---

He doesn't need to keep it.
He needs Ukraine to be too afraid to try to join NATO or EU.

Putin is in a very strong position. It doesn't matter what has happened to his army or campaign thus far. There is a 40mi long column of Russian might headed to surround Kiev. Ukraine might be able to stop the Russian army, but there is no short-term scenario where Ukraine can expel that army anywhere it is currently camped.

We are witnessing something not seen in hundreds of years.....a proper siege of a city (a number of them, actually)....an army camped outside the walls, waiting out a surrender not of an army, but of a people. The Russian army will lob enough ordnance to destabilize civil administration, and keep tightening the noose, trying not to turn 2022 Kiev into 1944 Stalingrad but to force Ukrainian leadership to make hard choices about how much pain (and for how long) the Ukrainian people should be asked to endure. Eventually, submission and planning for insurgency starts to look more and more palatable than rat soup.

Putin doesn't want to roll thru Ukraine like we rolled thru Iraq.
Putin doesn't want to install a new regime.
If he does that, he's got the Pottery Barn principle to deal with - he broke it, now he's got to fix it.

Putin wants to slowly strangle Ukraine, for the purpose of forcing the existing government of Ukraine to submit, to sign documents declaring loyalty to Moscow, to pay tribute to Moscow. When he gets those things (and he's far more likely to get them today than he was two weeks ago), he will go home. And for the next few decades, Ukrainian leadership will remember what it was like that time they made Moscow mad. And even if insurgency erupts after the Russian Army leaves victorious.....whatever regime remains in Kiev will be loathe to dally too much with the West, until and unless insurgency replaces them. Putin will have what he wants, and Ukrainian puppets to enforce it.

---

A lot of medieval sieges failed. Crusades had plenty. Hundred Years War. Etc.

---

This one won't. There's too many Russians and no relief forces are going to be coming.

---

We'll see. What you omit is that the economy of the besieger is under siege.

I have mentioned for years on here the Libertarian point that trade ties offer more security than tariffs or military alliances. Russia is learning that firsthand, China secondhand.

---

Russia is a third world country with nuclear weapons, a gas station masquerading as a country, etc….. No other nation of peoples match Russian capacity to absorb pain and suffering.

But so far, Not. Russia is wrecking Ukraine, slowly, deliberately, with ever increasing pressure, to demonstrate that Russia is the big dog is the
Dneiper River watershed…..when it wants to be.

---

20 years ago your description of Russia was correct. However years of natural gas and oil exports have upgraded the country to 2nd world status.

You are correct . Russia is wrecking Ukraine . Suspect the winter weather is slowing down the Russian advance as least as much as the Ukrainian military .

---

Still hoping and praying that some anonymous airstrike will annihilate that 40 mile long Russian convoy that has stalled. Kinda like an old-fashioned turkey shoot. It is being reported that the Russian convoy is running out of fuel and supplies, including food. But what the Hell do we believe in what is being reported these days? This upcoming week should be very telling.

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

quash said:

---

whiterock said:

---

quash said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

"Putin is quite a bit much much smarter than his internet detractors."

My English friend today told me 'Putin has a case of the clevers'.

That is, he has outsmarted himself.

Putin cannot keep Ukraine, and the price just to take it is far higher than he expected.

---

He doesn't need to keep it.
He needs Ukraine to be too afraid to try to join NATO or EU.

Putin is in a very strong position. It doesn't matter what has happened to his army or campaign thus far. There is a 40mi long column of Russian might headed to surround Kiev. Ukraine might be able to stop the Russian army, but there is no short-term scenario where Ukraine can expel that army anywhere it is currently camped.

We are witnessing something not seen in hundreds of years.....a proper siege of a city (a number of them, actually)....an army camped outside the walls, waiting out a surrender not of an army, but of a people. The Russian army will lob enough ordnance to destabilize civil administration, and keep tightening the noose, trying not to turn 2022 Kiev into 1944 Stalingrad but to force Ukrainian leadership to make hard choices about how much pain (and for how long) the Ukrainian people should be asked to endure. Eventually, submission and planning for insurgency starts to look more and more palatable than rat soup.

Putin doesn't want to roll thru Ukraine like we rolled thru Iraq.
Putin doesn't want to install a new regime.
If he does that, he's got the Pottery Barn principle to deal with - he broke it, now he's got to fix it.

Putin wants to slowly strangle Ukraine, for the purpose of forcing the existing government of Ukraine to submit, to sign documents declaring loyalty to Moscow, to pay tribute to Moscow. When he gets those things (and he's far more likely to get them today than he was two weeks ago), he will go home. And for the next few decades, Ukrainian leadership will remember what it was like that time they made Moscow mad. And even if insurgency erupts after the Russian Army leaves victorious.....whatever regime remains in Kiev will be loathe to dally too much with the West, until and unless insurgency replaces them. Putin will have what he wants, and Ukrainian puppets to enforce it.

---

A lot of medieval sieges failed. Crusades had plenty. Hundred Years War. Etc.

---

This one won't. There's too many Russians and no relief forces are going to be coming.

---

We'll see. What you omit is that the economy of the besieger is under siege.

I have mentioned for years on here the Libertarian point that trade ties offer more security than tariffs or military alliances. Russia is learning that firsthand, China secondhand.

---

Russia is a third world country with nuclear weapons, a gas station masquerading as a country, etc….. No other nation of peoples match Russian capacity to absorb pain and suffering.

But so far, Not. Russia is wrecking Ukraine, slowly, deliberately, with ever increasing pressure, to demonstrate that Russia is the big dog is the
Dneiper River watershed…..when it wants to be.

---

20 years ago your description of Russia was correct. However years of natural gas and oil exports have upgraded the country to 2nd world status.

You are correct . Russia is wrecking Ukraine . Suspect the winter weather is slowing down the Russian advance as least as much as the Ukrainian military .

---

Still hoping and praying that some anonymous airstrike will annihilate that 40 mile long Russian convoy that has stalled. Kinda like an old-fashioned turkey shoot. It is being reported that the Russian convoy is running out of fuel and supplies, including food. But what the Hell do we believe in what is being reported these days? This upcoming week should be very telling.

---

Can't believe our Secretary of State went PUBLIC describing how the United States is offering to replace any jet fighters Poland is would be willing to give to Ukraine .

Why in the hell would he need to reveal such an obviously inflammatory move ?

Most self destructive administration in US history .

World- Imposes Sanctions

Putin-Sanctions are an act of war against Russia

Finland-we're going to join NATO

Putin- there will be consequences

Trump-I'd bomb the **** out of Russia with F-22s with Chinese flags on them

Putin- *crickets*.... *privately* "LOL comrade Trumpski that's a good one"

jupiter said:

---

World- Imposes Sanctions

Putin-Sanctions are an act of war against Russia

Finland-we're going to join NATO

Putin- there will be consequences

Trump-I'd bomb the **** out of Russia with F-22s with Chinese flags on them

Putin- *crickets*.... *privately* "LOL [very nervously] comrade Trumpski that's a good one….by the way, I'm so glad you are gone and replaced by a dementia patient so I can finally invade Ukraine. Please don't get elected again. I want to keep it"

---

Yup

Canada2017 said:

---

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

quash said:

---

whiterock said:

---

quash said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

"Putin is quite a bit much much smarter than his internet detractors."

My English friend today told me 'Putin has a case of the clevers'.

That is, he has outsmarted himself.

Putin cannot keep Ukraine, and the price just to take it is far higher than he expected.

---

He doesn't need to keep it.
He needs Ukraine to be too afraid to try to join NATO or EU.

Putin is in a very strong position. It doesn't matter what has happened to his army or campaign thus far. There is a 40mi long column of Russian might headed to surround Kiev. Ukraine might be able to stop the Russian army, but there is no short-term scenario where Ukraine can expel that army anywhere it is currently camped.

We are witnessing something not seen in hundreds of years.....a proper siege of a city (a number of them, actually)....an army camped outside the walls, waiting out a surrender not of an army, but of a people. The Russian army will lob enough ordnance to destabilize civil administration, and keep tightening the noose, trying not to turn 2022 Kiev into 1944 Stalingrad but to force Ukrainian leadership to make hard choices about how much pain (and for how long) the Ukrainian people should be asked to endure. Eventually, submission and planning for insurgency starts to look more and more palatable than rat soup.

Putin doesn't want to roll thru Ukraine like we rolled thru Iraq.
Putin doesn't want to install a new regime.
If he does that, he's got the Pottery Barn principle to deal with - he broke it, now he's got to fix it.

Putin wants to slowly strangle Ukraine, for the purpose of forcing the existing government of Ukraine to submit, to sign documents declaring loyalty to Moscow, to pay tribute to Moscow. When he gets those things (and he's far more likely to get them today than he was two weeks ago), he will go home. And for the next few decades, Ukrainian leadership will remember what it was like that time they made Moscow mad. And even if insurgency erupts after the Russian Army leaves victorious.....whatever regime remains in Kiev will be loathe to dally too much with the West, until and unless insurgency replaces them. Putin will have what he wants, and Ukrainian puppets to enforce it.

---

A lot of medieval sieges failed. Crusades had plenty. Hundred Years War. Etc.

---

This one won't. There's too many Russians and no relief forces are going to be coming.

---

We'll see. What you omit is that the economy of the besieger is under siege.

I have mentioned for years on here the Libertarian point that trade ties offer more security than tariffs or military alliances. Russia is learning that firsthand, China secondhand.

---

Russia is a third world country with nuclear weapons, a gas station masquerading as a country, etc….. No other nation of peoples match Russian capacity to absorb pain and suffering.

But so far, Not. Russia is wrecking Ukraine, slowly, deliberately, with ever increasing pressure, to demonstrate that Russia is the big dog is the
Dneiper River watershed…..when it wants to be.

---

20 years ago your description of Russia was correct. However years of natural gas and oil exports have upgraded the country to 2nd world status.

You are correct . Russia is wrecking Ukraine . Suspect the winter weather is slowing down the Russian advance as least as much as the Ukrainian military .

---

Still hoping and praying that some anonymous airstrike will annihilate that 40 mile long Russian convoy that has stalled. Kinda like an old-fashioned turkey shoot. It is being reported that the Russian convoy is running out of fuel and supplies, including food. But what the Hell do we believe in what is being reported these days? This upcoming week should be very telling.

---

Can't believe our Secretary of State went PUBLIC describing how the United States is offering to replace any jet fighters Poland is would be willing to give to Ukraine .

Why in the hell would he need to reveal such an obviously inflammatory move ?

Most self destructive administration in US history .

---

It's all about the media and Twitter narrative with liberals.

A real leader as you say would have just done it and never told the media.

Canada2017 said:

---

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

quash said:

---

whiterock said:

---

quash said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

"Putin is quite a bit much much smarter than his internet detractors."

My English friend today told me 'Putin has a case of the clevers'.

That is, he has outsmarted himself.

Putin cannot keep Ukraine, and the price just to take it is far higher than he expected.

---

He doesn't need to keep it.
He needs Ukraine to be too afraid to try to join NATO or EU.

Putin is in a very strong position. It doesn't matter what has happened to his army or campaign thus far. There is a 40mi long column of Russian might headed to surround Kiev. Ukraine might be able to stop the Russian army, but there is no short-term scenario where Ukraine can expel that army anywhere it is currently camped.

We are witnessing something not seen in hundreds of years.....a proper siege of a city (a number of them, actually)....an army camped outside the walls, waiting out a surrender not of an army, but of a people. The Russian army will lob enough ordnance to destabilize civil administration, and keep tightening the noose, trying not to turn 2022 Kiev into 1944 Stalingrad but to force Ukrainian leadership to make hard choices about how much pain (and for how long) the Ukrainian people should be asked to endure. Eventually, submission and planning for insurgency starts to look more and more palatable than rat soup.

Putin doesn't want to roll thru Ukraine like we rolled thru Iraq.
Putin doesn't want to install a new regime.
If he does that, he's got the Pottery Barn principle to deal with - he broke it, now he's got to fix it.

Putin wants to slowly strangle Ukraine, for the purpose of forcing the existing government of Ukraine to submit, to sign documents declaring loyalty to Moscow, to pay tribute to Moscow. When he gets those things (and he's far more likely to get them today than he was two weeks ago), he will go home. And for the next few decades, Ukrainian leadership will remember what it was like that time they made Moscow mad. And even if insurgency erupts after the Russian Army leaves victorious.....whatever regime remains in Kiev will be loathe to dally too much with the West, until and unless insurgency replaces them. Putin will have what he wants, and Ukrainian puppets to enforce it.

---

A lot of medieval sieges failed. Crusades had plenty. Hundred Years War. Etc.

---

This one won't. There's too many Russians and no relief forces are going to be coming.

---

We'll see. What you omit is that the economy of the besieger is under siege.

I have mentioned for years on here the Libertarian point that trade ties offer more security than tariffs or military alliances. Russia is learning that firsthand, China secondhand.

---

Russia is a third world country with nuclear weapons, a gas station masquerading as a country, etc….. No other nation of peoples match Russian capacity to absorb pain and suffering.

But so far, Not. Russia is wrecking Ukraine, slowly, deliberately, with ever increasing pressure, to demonstrate that Russia is the big dog is the
Dneiper River watershed…..when it wants to be.

---

20 years ago your description of Russia was correct. However years of natural gas and oil exports have upgraded the country to 2nd world status.

You are correct . Russia is wrecking Ukraine . Suspect the winter weather is slowing down the Russian advance as least as much as the Ukrainian military .

---

Still hoping and praying that some anonymous airstrike will annihilate that 40 mile long Russian convoy that has stalled. Kinda like an old-fashioned turkey shoot. It is being reported that the Russian convoy is running out of fuel and supplies, including food. But what the Hell do we believe in what is being reported these days? This upcoming week should be very telling.

---

Can't believe our Secretary of State went PUBLIC describing how the United States is offering to replace any jet fighters Poland is would be willing to give to Ukraine .

Why in the hell would he need to reveal such an obviously inflammatory move ?

Most self destructive administration in US history .

---

I agree, no problem back filling.. Why telegraph it?

Same with no boots on ground, ok I understand realities, but to tell Putin and Xi???? They live too much for the narrative.

whiterock said:

---

quash said:

---

whiterock said:

---

quash said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

"Putin is quite a bit much much smarter than his internet detractors."

My English friend today told me 'Putin has a case of the clevers'.

That is, he has outsmarted himself.

Putin cannot keep Ukraine, and the price just to take it is far higher than he expected.

---

He doesn't need to keep it.
He needs Ukraine to be too afraid to try to join NATO or EU.

Putin is in a very strong position. It doesn't matter what has happened to his army or campaign thus far. There is a 40mi long column of Russian might headed to surround Kiev. Ukraine might be able to stop the Russian army, but there is no short-term scenario where Ukraine can expel that army anywhere it is currently camped.

We are witnessing something not seen in hundreds of years.....a proper siege of a city (a number of them, actually)....an army camped outside the walls, waiting out a surrender not of an army, but of a people. The Russian army will lob enough ordnance to destabilize civil administration, and keep tightening the noose, trying not to turn 2022 Kiev into 1944 Stalingrad but to force Ukrainian leadership to make hard choices about how much pain (and for how long) the Ukrainian people should be asked to endure. Eventually, submission and planning for insurgency starts to look more and more palatable than rat soup.

Putin doesn't want to roll thru Ukraine like we rolled thru Iraq.
Putin doesn't want to install a new regime.
If he does that, he's got the Pottery Barn principle to deal with - he broke it, now he's got to fix it.

Putin wants to slowly strangle Ukraine, for the purpose of forcing the existing government of Ukraine to submit, to sign documents declaring loyalty to Moscow, to pay tribute to Moscow. When he gets those things (and he's far more likely to get them today than he was two weeks ago), he will go home. And for the next few decades, Ukrainian leadership will remember what it was like that time they made Moscow mad. And even if insurgency erupts after the Russian Army leaves victorious.....whatever regime remains in Kiev will be loathe to dally too much with the West, until and unless insurgency replaces them. Putin will have what he wants, and Ukrainian puppets to enforce it.

---

A lot of medieval sieges failed. Crusades had plenty. Hundred Years War. Etc.

---

This one won't. There's too many Russians and no relief forces are going to be coming.

---

We'll see. What you omit is that the economy of the besieger is under siege.

I have mentioned for years on here the Libertarian point that trade ties offer more security than tariffs or military alliances. Russia is learning that firsthand, China secondhand.

---

Globalism did not deter this aggression.
Globalism has not slowed it a bit.
Globalism may afford tools to choke down the Russian economy years into the future.
In the meantime…….

Russia is a third world country with nuclear weapons, a gas station masquerading as a country, etc….. No other nation of peoples match Russian capacity to absorb pain and suffering. But they do understand a little bit about the use of national power.

Maybe all of that will change.

But so far, Not. Russia is wrecking Ukraine, slowly, deliberately, with ever increasing pressure, to demonstrate that Russia is the big dog is the
Dneiper River watershed…..when it wants to be.

And until we start drilling oil/gas wells and reopening coal mines, that isn't going to change.

---

Make up your mind, does trade impact Russia or not? You say it doesn't then ask us to do, something, not sure what you're getting at here, but it sounds like increasing our capacity to trade. Like Germany retrofitting a port to accept LNG.

Russia is the 13 or 14th largest exporter in the world. You bet trade matters to that economy.

RMF5630 said:

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Canada2017 said:

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RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

quash said:

---

whiterock said:

---

This one won't. There's too many Russians and no relief forces are going to be coming.

---

We'll see. What you omit is that the economy of the besieger is under siege.

I have mentioned for years on here the Libertarian point that trade ties offer more security than tariffs or military alliances. Russia is learning that firsthand, China secondhand.

---

Russia is a third world country with nuclear weapons, a gas station masquerading as a country, etc….. No other nation of peoples match Russian capacity to absorb pain and suffering.

But so far, Not. Russia is wrecking Ukraine, slowly, deliberately, with ever increasing pressure, to demonstrate that Russia is the big dog is the
Dneiper River watershed…..when it wants to be.

---

20 years ago your description of Russia was correct. However years of natural gas and oil exports have upgraded the country to 2nd world status.

You are correct . Russia is wrecking Ukraine . Suspect the winter weather is slowing down the Russian advance as least as much as the Ukrainian military .

---

Still hoping and praying that some anonymous airstrike will annihilate that 40 mile long Russian convoy that has stalled. Kinda like an old-fashioned turkey shoot. It is being reported that the Russian convoy is running out of fuel and supplies, including food. But what the Hell do we believe in what is being reported these days? This upcoming week should be very telling.

---

Can't believe our Secretary of State went PUBLIC describing how the United States is offering to replace any jet fighters Poland is would be willing to give to Ukraine .

Why in the hell would he need to reveal such an obviously inflammatory move ?

Most self destructive administration in US history .

---

I agree, no problem back filling.. Why telegraph it?

Same with no boots on ground, ok I understand realities, but to tell Putin and Xi???? They live too much for the narrative.

---

Incremental escalation.

Somewhere on some thread here, I commented on the degree to which NATO can and does bind the hands of member nations to act unilaterally or in concert. We are having to overcome the shackles that NATO leaves us with. NATO is structured to deter a Russian invasion of western Europe, not to deter Russian aggression elsewhere. This puts boxing gloves and handcuffs on member states in scenarios that do not involve a full-on Russian invasion of a NATO nation. Does Article 5 clause address...."so what happens if a member nation pokes Russia in the eye and Russia pokes them back?" So what you see here with Blinken's statement is the big dog, USA, signalling to Russia "we are going to help upgrade the Polish Air Force from old Warsaw Pact junk to 5th Gen fighters & bombers, and if they choose to sell the old stuff to the Ukrainians, we think that's a perfect way to get rid that poor quality stuff you stuck them with. (how do you like that Kharma, Pootie-put?)"

Is Russia going to go to war with the entire NATO alliance over that?
No. A quarter of their active duty army is bogged down in Ukraine.
Is Russia going to respond to that escalation with a nuclear response against NATO?
Not hardly.
Is Russia going to respond to that with a tactical nuclear strike in Ukraine (definitely Russian doctrine).
Perhaps.
But is that going to stiffen world resolve, or weaken it?
I'd suggest stiffen. More likely to cause Sweden & Finland to join Nato.
Russia is not going to do anything other than bluster.

We have nukes, too, remember.

whiterock said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

quash said:

---

whiterock said:

---

This one won't. There's too many Russians and no relief forces are going to be coming.

---

We'll see. What you omit is that the economy of the besieger is under siege.

I have mentioned for years on here the Libertarian point that trade ties offer more security than tariffs or military alliances. Russia is learning that firsthand, China secondhand.

---

Russia is a third world country with nuclear weapons, a gas station masquerading as a country, etc….. No other nation of peoples match Russian capacity to absorb pain and suffering.

But so far, Not. Russia is wrecking Ukraine, slowly, deliberately, with ever increasing pressure, to demonstrate that Russia is the big dog is the
Dneiper River watershed…..when it wants to be.

---

20 years ago your description of Russia was correct. However years of natural gas and oil exports have upgraded the country to 2nd world status.

You are correct . Russia is wrecking Ukraine . Suspect the winter weather is slowing down the Russian advance as least as much as the Ukrainian military .

---

Still hoping and praying that some anonymous airstrike will annihilate that 40 mile long Russian convoy that has stalled. Kinda like an old-fashioned turkey shoot. It is being reported that the Russian convoy is running out of fuel and supplies, including food. But what the Hell do we believe in what is being reported these days? This upcoming week should be very telling.

---

Can't believe our Secretary of State went PUBLIC describing how the United States is offering to replace any jet fighters Poland is would be willing to give to Ukraine .

Why in the hell would he need to reveal such an obviously inflammatory move ?

Most self destructive administration in US history .

---

I agree, no problem back filling.. Why telegraph it?

Same with no boots on ground, ok I understand realities, but to tell Putin and Xi???? They live too much for the narrative.

---

Incremental escalation.

Somewhere on some thread here, I commented on the degree to which NATO can and does bind the hands of member nations to act unilaterally or in concert. We are having to overcome the shackles that NATO leaves us with. NATO is structured to deter a Russian invasion of western Europe, not to deter Russian aggression elsewhere. This puts boxing gloves and handcuffs on member states in scenarios that do not involve a full-on Russian invasion of a NATO nation. Does Article 5 clause address...."so what happens if a member nation pokes Russia in the eye and Russia pokes them back?" So what you see here with Blinken's statement is the big dog, USA, signalling to Russia "we are going to help upgrade the Polish Air Force from old Warsaw Pact junk to 5th Gen fighters & bombers, and if they choose to sell the old stuff to the Ukrainians, we think that's a perfect way to get rid that poor quality stuff you stuck them with. (how do you like that Kharma, Pootie-put?)"

Is Russia going to go to war with the entire NATO alliance over that?
No. A quarter of their active duty army is bogged down in Ukraine.
Is Russia going to respond to that escalation with a nuclear response against NATO?
Not hardly.
Is Russia going to respond to that with a tactical nuclear strike in Ukraine (definitely Russian doctrine).
Perhaps.
But is that going to stiffen world resolve, or weaken it?
I'd suggest stiffen. More likely to cause Sweden & Finland to join Nato.
Russia is not going to do anything other than bluster.

We have nukes, too, remember.

---

Ok on the nukes.

1- they only work as a deterrent if there is a believe they will be used.
2- Nukes won't work as a deterrent if the other side has resigned themselves that they do not care anymore if they are used.

Putin seems to have made the decision that he is willing to use them or other WMDs unless he gets what he wants. There are many that say give it to him to avoid escalation.

Problem is if Putin really has resigned himself that Russia will go nuclear, there is only one choice: make sure he can't. Otherwise, it is just an exercise in giving him what he wants.

So, either we resurrect Reagan's SDI to shoot them down, figure out how to destroy their missiles, leadership change or he will keep upping the ante until he gets check-mate. I do not see any peaceful way this ends without the west taking on Putin.

RMF5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

quash said:

---

whiterock said:

---

This one won't. There's too many Russians and no relief forces are going to be coming.

---

We'll see. What you omit is that the economy of the besieger is under siege.

I have mentioned for years on here the Libertarian point that trade ties offer more security than tariffs or military alliances. Russia is learning that firsthand, China secondhand.

---

Russia is a third world country with nuclear weapons, a gas station masquerading as a country, etc….. No other nation of peoples match Russian capacity to absorb pain and suffering.

But so far, Not. Russia is wrecking Ukraine, slowly, deliberately, with ever increasing pressure, to demonstrate that Russia is the big dog is the
Dneiper River watershed…..when it wants to be.

---

20 years ago your description of Russia was correct. However years of natural gas and oil exports have upgraded the country to 2nd world status.

You are correct . Russia is wrecking Ukraine . Suspect the winter weather is slowing down the Russian advance as least as much as the Ukrainian military .

---

Still hoping and praying that some anonymous airstrike will annihilate that 40 mile long Russian convoy that has stalled. Kinda like an old-fashioned turkey shoot. It is being reported that the Russian convoy is running out of fuel and supplies, including food. But what the Hell do we believe in what is being reported these days? This upcoming week should be very telling.

---

Can't believe our Secretary of State went PUBLIC describing how the United States is offering to replace any jet fighters Poland is would be willing to give to Ukraine .

Why in the hell would he need to reveal such an obviously inflammatory move ?

Most self destructive administration in US history .

---

I agree, no problem back filling.. Why telegraph it?

Same with no boots on ground, ok I understand realities, but to tell Putin and Xi???? They live too much for the narrative.

---

Incremental escalation.

Somewhere on some thread here, I commented on the degree to which NATO can and does bind the hands of member nations to act unilaterally or in concert. We are having to overcome the shackles that NATO leaves us with. NATO is structured to deter a Russian invasion of western Europe, not to deter Russian aggression elsewhere. This puts boxing gloves and handcuffs on member states in scenarios that do not involve a full-on Russian invasion of a NATO nation. Does Article 5 clause address...."so what happens if a member nation pokes Russia in the eye and Russia pokes them back?" So what you see here with Blinken's statement is the big dog, USA, signalling to Russia "we are going to help upgrade the Polish Air Force from old Warsaw Pact junk to 5th Gen fighters & bombers, and if they choose to sell the old stuff to the Ukrainians, we think that's a perfect way to get rid that poor quality stuff you stuck them with. (how do you like that Kharma, Pootie-put?)"

Is Russia going to go to war with the entire NATO alliance over that?
No. A quarter of their active duty army is bogged down in Ukraine.
Is Russia going to respond to that escalation with a nuclear response against NATO?
Not hardly.
Is Russia going to respond to that with a tactical nuclear strike in Ukraine (definitely Russian doctrine).
Perhaps.
But is that going to stiffen world resolve, or weaken it?
I'd suggest stiffen. More likely to cause Sweden & Finland to join Nato.
Russia is not going to do anything other than bluster.

We have nukes, too, remember.

---

Ok on the nukes.

1- they only work as a deterrent if there is a believe they will be used.
2- Nukes won't work as a deterrent if the other side has resigned themselves that they do not care anymore if they are used.

Putin seems to have made the decision that he is willing to use them or other WMDs unless he gets what he wants. There are many that say give it to him to avoid escalation.

Problem is if Putin really has resigned himself that Russia will go nuclear, there is only one choice: make sure he can't. Otherwise, it is just an exercise in giving him what he wants.

So, either we resurrect Reagan's SDI to shoot them down, figure out how to destroy their missiles, leadership change or he will keep upping the ante until he gets check-mate. I do not see any peaceful way this ends without the west taking on Putin.

---

Bogging him down in Ukraine whilst sanctions drag on and the Billionaire oligarchs suffer (we know they don't care about regular Ivan and Sasha) is a potential strategy for leadership change.

ATL Bear said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

quash said:

---

whiterock said:

---

This one won't. There's too many Russians and no relief forces are going to be coming.

---

We'll see. What you omit is that the economy of the besieger is under siege.

I have mentioned for years on here the Libertarian point that trade ties offer more security than tariffs or military alliances. Russia is learning that firsthand, China secondhand.

---

Russia is a third world country with nuclear weapons, a gas station masquerading as a country, etc….. No other nation of peoples match Russian capacity to absorb pain and suffering.

But so far, Not. Russia is wrecking Ukraine, slowly, deliberately, with ever increasing pressure, to demonstrate that Russia is the big dog is the
Dneiper River watershed…..when it wants to be.

---

20 years ago your description of Russia was correct. However years of natural gas and oil exports have upgraded the country to 2nd world status.

You are correct . Russia is wrecking Ukraine . Suspect the winter weather is slowing down the Russian advance as least as much as the Ukrainian military .

---

Still hoping and praying that some anonymous airstrike will annihilate that 40 mile long Russian convoy that has stalled. Kinda like an old-fashioned turkey shoot. It is being reported that the Russian convoy is running out of fuel and supplies, including food. But what the Hell do we believe in what is being reported these days? This upcoming week should be very telling.

---

Can't believe our Secretary of State went PUBLIC describing how the United States is offering to replace any jet fighters Poland is would be willing to give to Ukraine .

Why in the hell would he need to reveal such an obviously inflammatory move ?

Most self destructive administration in US history .

---

I agree, no problem back filling.. Why telegraph it?

Same with no boots on ground, ok I understand realities, but to tell Putin and Xi???? They live too much for the narrative.

---

Incremental escalation.

Somewhere on some thread here, I commented on the degree to which NATO can and does bind the hands of member nations to act unilaterally or in concert. We are having to overcome the shackles that NATO leaves us with. NATO is structured to deter a Russian invasion of western Europe, not to deter Russian aggression elsewhere. This puts boxing gloves and handcuffs on member states in scenarios that do not involve a full-on Russian invasion of a NATO nation. Does Article 5 clause address...."so what happens if a member nation pokes Russia in the eye and Russia pokes them back?" So what you see here with Blinken's statement is the big dog, USA, signalling to Russia "we are going to help upgrade the Polish Air Force from old Warsaw Pact junk to 5th Gen fighters & bombers, and if they choose to sell the old stuff to the Ukrainians, we think that's a perfect way to get rid that poor quality stuff you stuck them with. (how do you like that Kharma, Pootie-put?)"

Is Russia going to go to war with the entire NATO alliance over that?
No. A quarter of their active duty army is bogged down in Ukraine.
Is Russia going to respond to that escalation with a nuclear response against NATO?
Not hardly.
Is Russia going to respond to that with a tactical nuclear strike in Ukraine (definitely Russian doctrine).
Perhaps.
But is that going to stiffen world resolve, or weaken it?
I'd suggest stiffen. More likely to cause Sweden & Finland to join Nato.
Russia is not going to do anything other than bluster.

We have nukes, too, remember.

---

Ok on the nukes.

1- they only work as a deterrent if there is a believe they will be used.
2- Nukes won't work as a deterrent if the other side has resigned themselves that they do not care anymore if they are used.

Putin seems to have made the decision that he is willing to use them or other WMDs unless he gets what he wants. There are many that say give it to him to avoid escalation.

Problem is if Putin really has resigned himself that Russia will go nuclear, there is only one choice: make sure he can't. Otherwise, it is just an exercise in giving him what he wants.

So, either we resurrect Reagan's SDI to shoot them down, figure out how to destroy their missiles, leadership change or he will keep upping the ante until he gets check-mate. I do not see any peaceful way this ends without the west taking on Putin.

---

Bogging him down in Ukraine whilst sanctions drag on and the Billionaire oligarchs suffer (we know they don't care about regular Ivan and Sasha) is a potential strategy for leadership change.

---

Yeah, that worked in 2014. Sanctions are not going to do that because he has China backstopping him. Without China, maybe in a few years.

RMF5630 said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

quash said:

---

whiterock said:

---

This one won't. There's too many Russians and no relief forces are going to be coming.

---

We'll see. What you omit is that the economy of the besieger is under siege.

I have mentioned for years on here the Libertarian point that trade ties offer more security than tariffs or military alliances. Russia is learning that firsthand, China secondhand.

---

Russia is a third world country with nuclear weapons, a gas station masquerading as a country, etc….. No other nation of peoples match Russian capacity to absorb pain and suffering.

But so far, Not. Russia is wrecking Ukraine, slowly, deliberately, with ever increasing pressure, to demonstrate that Russia is the big dog is the
Dneiper River watershed…..when it wants to be.

---

20 years ago your description of Russia was correct. However years of natural gas and oil exports have upgraded the country to 2nd world status.

You are correct . Russia is wrecking Ukraine . Suspect the winter weather is slowing down the Russian advance as least as much as the Ukrainian military .

---

Still hoping and praying that some anonymous airstrike will annihilate that 40 mile long Russian convoy that has stalled. Kinda like an old-fashioned turkey shoot. It is being reported that the Russian convoy is running out of fuel and supplies, including food. But what the Hell do we believe in what is being reported these days? This upcoming week should be very telling.

---

Can't believe our Secretary of State went PUBLIC describing how the United States is offering to replace any jet fighters Poland is would be willing to give to Ukraine .

Why in the hell would he need to reveal such an obviously inflammatory move ?

Most self destructive administration in US history .

---

I agree, no problem back filling.. Why telegraph it?

Same with no boots on ground, ok I understand realities, but to tell Putin and Xi???? They live too much for the narrative.

---

Incremental escalation.

Somewhere on some thread here, I commented on the degree to which NATO can and does bind the hands of member nations to act unilaterally or in concert. We are having to overcome the shackles that NATO leaves us with. NATO is structured to deter a Russian invasion of western Europe, not to deter Russian aggression elsewhere. This puts boxing gloves and handcuffs on member states in scenarios that do not involve a full-on Russian invasion of a NATO nation. Does Article 5 clause address...."so what happens if a member nation pokes Russia in the eye and Russia pokes them back?" So what you see here with Blinken's statement is the big dog, USA, signalling to Russia "we are going to help upgrade the Polish Air Force from old Warsaw Pact junk to 5th Gen fighters & bombers, and if they choose to sell the old stuff to the Ukrainians, we think that's a perfect way to get rid that poor quality stuff you stuck them with. (how do you like that Kharma, Pootie-put?)"

Is Russia going to go to war with the entire NATO alliance over that?
No. A quarter of their active duty army is bogged down in Ukraine.
Is Russia going to respond to that escalation with a nuclear response against NATO?
Not hardly.
Is Russia going to respond to that with a tactical nuclear strike in Ukraine (definitely Russian doctrine).
Perhaps.
But is that going to stiffen world resolve, or weaken it?
I'd suggest stiffen. More likely to cause Sweden & Finland to join Nato.
Russia is not going to do anything other than bluster.

We have nukes, too, remember.

---

Ok on the nukes.

1- they only work as a deterrent if there is a believe they will be used.
2- Nukes won't work as a deterrent if the other side has resigned themselves that they do not care anymore if they are used.

Putin seems to have made the decision that he is willing to use them or other WMDs unless he gets what he wants. There are many that say give it to him to avoid escalation.

Problem is if Putin really has resigned himself that Russia will go nuclear, there is only one choice: make sure he can't. Otherwise, it is just an exercise in giving him what he wants.

So, either we resurrect Reagan's SDI to shoot them down, figure out how to destroy their missiles, leadership change or he will keep upping the ante until he gets check-mate. I do not see any peaceful way this ends without the west taking on Putin.

---

Bogging him down in Ukraine whilst sanctions drag on and the Billionaire oligarchs suffer (we know they don't care about regular Ivan and Sasha) is a potential strategy for leadership change.

---

Yeah, that worked in 2014. Sanctions are not going to do that because he has China backstopping him. Without China, maybe in a few years.

---

It's never been tried like this before. I like the chance for some good success with this broad application of targeted sanctions. Russians have a history of violent revolution. If we can make their lives terrible enough, they'll have reason enough for a new one, perhaps.

Canon said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

quash said:

---

whiterock said:

---

This one won't. There's too many Russians and no relief forces are going to be coming.

---

We'll see. What you omit is that the economy of the besieger is under siege.

I have mentioned for years on here the Libertarian point that trade ties offer more security than tariffs or military alliances. Russia is learning that firsthand, China secondhand.

---

Russia is a third world country with nuclear weapons, a gas station masquerading as a country, etc….. No other nation of peoples match Russian capacity to absorb pain and suffering.

But so far, Not. Russia is wrecking Ukraine, slowly, deliberately, with ever increasing pressure, to demonstrate that Russia is the big dog is the
Dneiper River watershed…..when it wants to be.

---

20 years ago your description of Russia was correct. However years of natural gas and oil exports have upgraded the country to 2nd world status.

You are correct . Russia is wrecking Ukraine . Suspect the winter weather is slowing down the Russian advance as least as much as the Ukrainian military .

---

Still hoping and praying that some anonymous airstrike will annihilate that 40 mile long Russian convoy that has stalled. Kinda like an old-fashioned turkey shoot. It is being reported that the Russian convoy is running out of fuel and supplies, including food. But what the Hell do we believe in what is being reported these days? This upcoming week should be very telling.

---

Can't believe our Secretary of State went PUBLIC describing how the United States is offering to replace any jet fighters Poland is would be willing to give to Ukraine .

Why in the hell would he need to reveal such an obviously inflammatory move ?

Most self destructive administration in US history .

---

I agree, no problem back filling.. Why telegraph it?

Same with no boots on ground, ok I understand realities, but to tell Putin and Xi???? They live too much for the narrative.

---

Incremental escalation.

Somewhere on some thread here, I commented on the degree to which NATO can and does bind the hands of member nations to act unilaterally or in concert. We are having to overcome the shackles that NATO leaves us with. NATO is structured to deter a Russian invasion of western Europe, not to deter Russian aggression elsewhere. This puts boxing gloves and handcuffs on member states in scenarios that do not involve a full-on Russian invasion of a NATO nation. Does Article 5 clause address...."so what happens if a member nation pokes Russia in the eye and Russia pokes them back?" So what you see here with Blinken's statement is the big dog, USA, signalling to Russia "we are going to help upgrade the Polish Air Force from old Warsaw Pact junk to 5th Gen fighters & bombers, and if they choose to sell the old stuff to the Ukrainians, we think that's a perfect way to get rid that poor quality stuff you stuck them with. (how do you like that Kharma, Pootie-put?)"

Is Russia going to go to war with the entire NATO alliance over that?
No. A quarter of their active duty army is bogged down in Ukraine.
Is Russia going to respond to that escalation with a nuclear response against NATO?
Not hardly.
Is Russia going to respond to that with a tactical nuclear strike in Ukraine (definitely Russian doctrine).
Perhaps.
But is that going to stiffen world resolve, or weaken it?
I'd suggest stiffen. More likely to cause Sweden & Finland to join Nato.
Russia is not going to do anything other than bluster.

We have nukes, too, remember.

---

Ok on the nukes.

1- they only work as a deterrent if there is a believe they will be used.
2- Nukes won't work as a deterrent if the other side has resigned themselves that they do not care anymore if they are used.

Putin seems to have made the decision that he is willing to use them or other WMDs unless he gets what he wants. There are many that say give it to him to avoid escalation.

Problem is if Putin really has resigned himself that Russia will go nuclear, there is only one choice: make sure he can't. Otherwise, it is just an exercise in giving him what he wants.

So, either we resurrect Reagan's SDI to shoot them down, figure out how to destroy their missiles, leadership change or he will keep upping the ante until he gets check-mate. I do not see any peaceful way this ends without the west taking on Putin.

---

Bogging him down in Ukraine whilst sanctions drag on and the Billionaire oligarchs suffer (we know they don't care about regular Ivan and Sasha) is a potential strategy for leadership change.

---

Yeah, that worked in 2014. Sanctions are not going to do that because he has China backstopping him. Without China, maybe in a few years.

---

It's never been tried like this before. I like the chance for some good success with this broad application of targeted sanctions. Russians have a history of violent revolution. If we can make their lives terrible enough, they'll have reason enough for a new one, perhaps.

---

Joe Biden is funding BOTH sides of this war! Why does this make sense to anybody? (Whether you are a D, an R, an I, a fake Libertarian, or you don't vote)

Canon said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

quash said:

---

whiterock said:

---

This one won't. There's too many Russians and no relief forces are going to be coming.

---

We'll see. What you omit is that the economy of the besieger is under siege.

I have mentioned for years on here the Libertarian point that trade ties offer more security than tariffs or military alliances. Russia is learning that firsthand, China secondhand.

---

Russia is a third world country with nuclear weapons, a gas station masquerading as a country, etc….. No other nation of peoples match Russian capacity to absorb pain and suffering.

But so far, Not. Russia is wrecking Ukraine, slowly, deliberately, with ever increasing pressure, to demonstrate that Russia is the big dog is the
Dneiper River watershed…..when it wants to be.

---

20 years ago your description of Russia was correct. However years of natural gas and oil exports have upgraded the country to 2nd world status.

You are correct . Russia is wrecking Ukraine . Suspect the winter weather is slowing down the Russian advance as least as much as the Ukrainian military .

---

Still hoping and praying that some anonymous airstrike will annihilate that 40 mile long Russian convoy that has stalled. Kinda like an old-fashioned turkey shoot. It is being reported that the Russian convoy is running out of fuel and supplies, including food. But what the Hell do we believe in what is being reported these days? This upcoming week should be very telling.

---

Can't believe our Secretary of State went PUBLIC describing how the United States is offering to replace any jet fighters Poland is would be willing to give to Ukraine .

Why in the hell would he need to reveal such an obviously inflammatory move ?

Most self destructive administration in US history .

---

I agree, no problem back filling.. Why telegraph it?

Same with no boots on ground, ok I understand realities, but to tell Putin and Xi???? They live too much for the narrative.

---

Incremental escalation.

Somewhere on some thread here, I commented on the degree to which NATO can and does bind the hands of member nations to act unilaterally or in concert. We are having to overcome the shackles that NATO leaves us with. NATO is structured to deter a Russian invasion of western Europe, not to deter Russian aggression elsewhere. This puts boxing gloves and handcuffs on member states in scenarios that do not involve a full-on Russian invasion of a NATO nation. Does Article 5 clause address...."so what happens if a member nation pokes Russia in the eye and Russia pokes them back?" So what you see here with Blinken's statement is the big dog, USA, signalling to Russia "we are going to help upgrade the Polish Air Force from old Warsaw Pact junk to 5th Gen fighters & bombers, and if they choose to sell the old stuff to the Ukrainians, we think that's a perfect way to get rid that poor quality stuff you stuck them with. (how do you like that Kharma, Pootie-put?)"

Is Russia going to go to war with the entire NATO alliance over that?
No. A quarter of their active duty army is bogged down in Ukraine.
Is Russia going to respond to that escalation with a nuclear response against NATO?
Not hardly.
Is Russia going to respond to that with a tactical nuclear strike in Ukraine (definitely Russian doctrine).
Perhaps.
But is that going to stiffen world resolve, or weaken it?
I'd suggest stiffen. More likely to cause Sweden & Finland to join Nato.
Russia is not going to do anything other than bluster.

We have nukes, too, remember.

---

Ok on the nukes.

1- they only work as a deterrent if there is a believe they will be used.
2- Nukes won't work as a deterrent if the other side has resigned themselves that they do not care anymore if they are used.

Putin seems to have made the decision that he is willing to use them or other WMDs unless he gets what he wants. There are many that say give it to him to avoid escalation.

Problem is if Putin really has resigned himself that Russia will go nuclear, there is only one choice: make sure he can't. Otherwise, it is just an exercise in giving him what he wants.

So, either we resurrect Reagan's SDI to shoot them down, figure out how to destroy their missiles, leadership change or he will keep upping the ante until he gets check-mate. I do not see any peaceful way this ends without the west taking on Putin.

---

Bogging him down in Ukraine whilst sanctions drag on and the Billionaire oligarchs suffer (we know they don't care about regular Ivan and Sasha) is a potential strategy for leadership change.

---

Yeah, that worked in 2014. Sanctions are not going to do that because he has China backstopping him. Without China, maybe in a few years.

---

It's never been tried like this before. I like the chance for some good success with this broad application of targeted sanctions. Russians have a history of violent revolution. If we can make their lives terrible enough, they'll have reason enough for a new one, perhaps.

---

I do agree with you on the sanctions being different this time as most of the world is on-board. It is just China, that gives me pause. I can see Russia moving to a one nation clientele and China taking every drop and more. If you believe Putin is not crazy or terminally ill, than I have to believe he and Xi had this worked out before the Olympics.

RMF5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

quash said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Russia is a third world country with nuclear weapons, a gas station masquerading as a country, etc….. No other nation of peoples match Russian capacity to absorb pain and suffering.

---

---

But so far, Not. Russia is wrecking Ukraine, slowly, deliberately, with ever increasing pressure, to demonstrate that Russia is the big dog is the Dneiper River watershed…..when it wants to be.

---

20 years ago your description of Russia was correct. However years of natural gas and oil exports have upgraded the country to 2nd world status.

You are correct . Russia is wrecking Ukraine . Suspect the winter weather is slowing down the Russian advance as least as much as the Ukrainian military .

---

Still hoping and praying that some anonymous airstrike will annihilate that 40 mile long Russian convoy that has stalled. Kinda like an old-fashioned turkey shoot. It is being reported that the Russian convoy is running out of fuel and supplies, including food. But what the Hell do we believe in what is being reported these days? This upcoming week should be very telling.

---

Can't believe our Secretary of State went PUBLIC describing how the United States is offering to replace any jet fighters Poland is would be willing to give to Ukraine .

Why in the hell would he need to reveal such an obviously inflammatory move ?

Most self destructive administration in US history .

---

I agree, no problem back filling.. Why telegraph it?

Same with no boots on ground, ok I understand realities, but to tell Putin and Xi???? They live too much for the narrative.

---

Incremental escalation.

Somewhere on some thread here, I commented on the degree to which NATO can and does bind the hands of member nations to act unilaterally or in concert. We are having to overcome the shackles that NATO leaves us with. NATO is structured to deter a Russian invasion of western Europe, not to deter Russian aggression elsewhere. This puts boxing gloves and handcuffs on member states in scenarios that do not involve a full-on Russian invasion of a NATO nation. Does Article 5 clause address...."so what happens if a member nation pokes Russia in the eye and Russia pokes them back?" So what you see here with Blinken's statement is the big dog, USA, signalling to Russia "we are going to help upgrade the Polish Air Force from old Warsaw Pact junk to 5th Gen fighters & bombers, and if they choose to sell the old stuff to the Ukrainians, we think that's a perfect way to get rid that poor quality stuff you stuck them with. (how do you like that Kharma, Pootie-put?)"

Is Russia going to go to war with the entire NATO alliance over that?
No. A quarter of their active duty army is bogged down in Ukraine.
Is Russia going to respond to that escalation with a nuclear response against NATO?
Not hardly.
Is Russia going to respond to that with a tactical nuclear strike in Ukraine (definitely Russian doctrine).
Perhaps.
But is that going to stiffen world resolve, or weaken it?
I'd suggest stiffen. More likely to cause Sweden & Finland to join Nato.
Russia is not going to do anything other than bluster.

We have nukes, too, remember.

---

Ok on the nukes.

1- they only work as a deterrent if there is a believe they will be used.
2- Nukes won't work as a deterrent if the other side has resigned themselves that they do not care anymore if they are used.

Putin seems to have made the decision that he is willing to use them or other WMDs unless he gets what he wants. There are many that say give it to him to avoid escalation.

Problem is if Putin really has resigned himself that Russia will go nuclear, there is only one choice: make sure he can't. Otherwise, it is just an exercise in giving him what he wants.

So, either we resurrect Reagan's SDI to shoot them down, figure out how to destroy their missiles, leadership change or he will keep upping the ante until he gets check-mate. I do not see any peaceful way this ends without the west taking on Putin.

---

Russian military doctrine throughout the Cold War delegated the decision to use tactical nukes to field commands. So that part in bold isn't really new. Russia has ALWAYS maintained that attacking a Russian military unit risked nuclear war.

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

Canon said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

quash said:

---

whiterock said:

---

This one won't. There's too many Russians and no relief forces are going to be coming.

---

We'll see. What you omit is that the economy of the besieger is under siege.

I have mentioned for years on here the Libertarian point that trade ties offer more security than tariffs or military alliances. Russia is learning that firsthand, China secondhand.

---

Russia is a third world country with nuclear weapons, a gas station masquerading as a country, etc….. No other nation of peoples match Russian capacity to absorb pain and suffering.

But so far, Not. Russia is wrecking Ukraine, slowly, deliberately, with ever increasing pressure, to demonstrate that Russia is the big dog is the
Dneiper River watershed…..when it wants to be.

---

20 years ago your description of Russia was correct. However years of natural gas and oil exports have upgraded the country to 2nd world status.

You are correct . Russia is wrecking Ukraine . Suspect the winter weather is slowing down the Russian advance as least as much as the Ukrainian military .

---

Still hoping and praying that some anonymous airstrike will annihilate that 40 mile long Russian convoy that has stalled. Kinda like an old-fashioned turkey shoot. It is being reported that the Russian convoy is running out of fuel and supplies, including food. But what the Hell do we believe in what is being reported these days? This upcoming week should be very telling.

---

Can't believe our Secretary of State went PUBLIC describing how the United States is offering to replace any jet fighters Poland is would be willing to give to Ukraine .

Why in the hell would he need to reveal such an obviously inflammatory move ?

Most self destructive administration in US history .

---

I agree, no problem back filling.. Why telegraph it?

Same with no boots on ground, ok I understand realities, but to tell Putin and Xi???? They live too much for the narrative.

---

Incremental escalation.

Somewhere on some thread here, I commented on the degree to which NATO can and does bind the hands of member nations to act unilaterally or in concert. We are having to overcome the shackles that NATO leaves us with. NATO is structured to deter a Russian invasion of western Europe, not to deter Russian aggression elsewhere. This puts boxing gloves and handcuffs on member states in scenarios that do not involve a full-on Russian invasion of a NATO nation. Does Article 5 clause address...."so what happens if a member nation pokes Russia in the eye and Russia pokes them back?" So what you see here with Blinken's statement is the big dog, USA, signalling to Russia "we are going to help upgrade the Polish Air Force from old Warsaw Pact junk to 5th Gen fighters & bombers, and if they choose to sell the old stuff to the Ukrainians, we think that's a perfect way to get rid that poor quality stuff you stuck them with. (how do you like that Kharma, Pootie-put?)"

Is Russia going to go to war with the entire NATO alliance over that?
No. A quarter of their active duty army is bogged down in Ukraine.
Is Russia going to respond to that escalation with a nuclear response against NATO?
Not hardly.
Is Russia going to respond to that with a tactical nuclear strike in Ukraine (definitely Russian doctrine).
Perhaps.
But is that going to stiffen world resolve, or weaken it?
I'd suggest stiffen. More likely to cause Sweden & Finland to join Nato.
Russia is not going to do anything other than bluster.

We have nukes, too, remember.

---

Ok on the nukes.

1- they only work as a deterrent if there is a believe they will be used.
2- Nukes won't work as a deterrent if the other side has resigned themselves that they do not care anymore if they are used.

Putin seems to have made the decision that he is willing to use them or other WMDs unless he gets what he wants. There are many that say give it to him to avoid escalation.

Problem is if Putin really has resigned himself that Russia will go nuclear, there is only one choice: make sure he can't. Otherwise, it is just an exercise in giving him what he wants.

So, either we resurrect Reagan's SDI to shoot them down, figure out how to destroy their missiles, leadership change or he will keep upping the ante until he gets check-mate. I do not see any peaceful way this ends without the west taking on Putin.

---

Bogging him down in Ukraine whilst sanctions drag on and the Billionaire oligarchs suffer (we know they don't care about regular Ivan and Sasha) is a potential strategy for leadership change.

---

Yeah, that worked in 2014. Sanctions are not going to do that because he has China backstopping him. Without China, maybe in a few years.

---

It's never been tried like this before. I like the chance for some good success with this broad application of targeted sanctions. Russians have a history of violent revolution. If we can make their lives terrible enough, they'll have reason enough for a new one, perhaps.

---

Joe Biden is funding BOTH sides of this war! Why does this make sense to anybody? (Whether you are a D, an R, an I, a fake Libertarian, or you don't vote)

---

Millions of Americans ( almost 41% of voters apparently ) are so devoted to their 'team' that there is nothing Biden can or would do that would make them vote Republican .

Millions of Jinxy's.

Such dummies will simply push for another Dem to replace Biden without any change in their self destructive policies.

whiterock said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

quash said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Russia is a third world country with nuclear weapons, a gas station masquerading as a country, etc….. No other nation of peoples match Russian capacity to absorb pain and suffering.

---

---

But so far, Not. Russia is wrecking Ukraine, slowly, deliberately, with ever increasing pressure, to demonstrate that Russia is the big dog is the Dneiper River watershed…..when it wants to be.

---

20 years ago your description of Russia was correct. However years of natural gas and oil exports have upgraded the country to 2nd world status.

You are correct . Russia is wrecking Ukraine . Suspect the winter weather is slowing down the Russian advance as least as much as the Ukrainian military .

---

Still hoping and praying that some anonymous airstrike will annihilate that 40 mile long Russian convoy that has stalled. Kinda like an old-fashioned turkey shoot. It is being reported that the Russian convoy is running out of fuel and supplies, including food. But what the Hell do we believe in what is being reported these days? This upcoming week should be very telling.

---

Can't believe our Secretary of State went PUBLIC describing how the United States is offering to replace any jet fighters Poland is would be willing to give to Ukraine .

Why in the hell would he need to reveal such an obviously inflammatory move ?

Most self destructive administration in US history .

---

I agree, no problem back filling.. Why telegraph it?

Same with no boots on ground, ok I understand realities, but to tell Putin and Xi???? They live too much for the narrative.

---

Incremental escalation.

Somewhere on some thread here, I commented on the degree to which NATO can and does bind the hands of member nations to act unilaterally or in concert. We are having to overcome the shackles that NATO leaves us with. NATO is structured to deter a Russian invasion of western Europe, not to deter Russian aggression elsewhere. This puts boxing gloves and handcuffs on member states in scenarios that do not involve a full-on Russian invasion of a NATO nation. Does Article 5 clause address...."so what happens if a member nation pokes Russia in the eye and Russia pokes them back?" So what you see here with Blinken's statement is the big dog, USA, signalling to Russia "we are going to help upgrade the Polish Air Force from old Warsaw Pact junk to 5th Gen fighters & bombers, and if they choose to sell the old stuff to the Ukrainians, we think that's a perfect way to get rid that poor quality stuff you stuck them with. (how do you like that Kharma, Pootie-put?)"

Is Russia going to go to war with the entire NATO alliance over that?
No. A quarter of their active duty army is bogged down in Ukraine.
Is Russia going to respond to that escalation with a nuclear response against NATO?
Not hardly.
Is Russia going to respond to that with a tactical nuclear strike in Ukraine (definitely Russian doctrine).
Perhaps.
But is that going to stiffen world resolve, or weaken it?
I'd suggest stiffen. More likely to cause Sweden & Finland to join Nato.
Russia is not going to do anything other than bluster.

We have nukes, too, remember.

---

Ok on the nukes.

1- they only work as a deterrent if there is a believe they will be used.
2- Nukes won't work as a deterrent if the other side has resigned themselves that they do not care anymore if they are used.

Putin seems to have made the decision that he is willing to use them or other WMDs unless he gets what he wants. There are many that say give it to him to avoid escalation.

Problem is if Putin really has resigned himself that Russia will go nuclear, there is only one choice: make sure he can't. Otherwise, it is just an exercise in giving him what he wants.

So, either we resurrect Reagan's SDI to shoot them down, figure out how to destroy their missiles, leadership change or he will keep upping the ante until he gets check-mate. I do not see any peaceful way this ends without the west taking on Putin.

---

Russian military doctrine throughout the Cold War delegated the decision to use tactical nukes to field commands. So that part in bold isn't really new. Russia has ALWAYS maintained that attacking a Russian military unit risked nuclear war.

---

Yeah, but I can't remember a Head of State being so absolute about it.

If NATO hems Russia in by taking in Russia's western neighbors, Russia will expand southward into areas that don't risk nukes.

Russia has gone from Tsars and nobles to Communist premier and commissars to leader and oligarchs. No real change, just name changes. All central authoritarian rule that does not allow independent thought.

Also, Russia has always desired warm weather ports.

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

Canon said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

quash said:

---

whiterock said:

---

This one won't. There's too many Russians and no relief forces are going to be coming.

---

We'll see. What you omit is that the economy of the besieger is under siege.

I have mentioned for years on here the Libertarian point that trade ties offer more security than tariffs or military alliances. Russia is learning that firsthand, China secondhand.

---

Russia is a third world country with nuclear weapons, a gas station masquerading as a country, etc….. No other nation of peoples match Russian capacity to absorb pain and suffering.

But so far, Not. Russia is wrecking Ukraine, slowly, deliberately, with ever increasing pressure, to demonstrate that Russia is the big dog is the
Dneiper River watershed…..when it wants to be.

---

20 years ago your description of Russia was correct. However years of natural gas and oil exports have upgraded the country to 2nd world status.

You are correct . Russia is wrecking Ukraine . Suspect the winter weather is slowing down the Russian advance as least as much as the Ukrainian military .

---

Still hoping and praying that some anonymous airstrike will annihilate that 40 mile long Russian convoy that has stalled. Kinda like an old-fashioned turkey shoot. It is being reported that the Russian convoy is running out of fuel and supplies, including food. But what the Hell do we believe in what is being reported these days? This upcoming week should be very telling.

---

Can't believe our Secretary of State went PUBLIC describing how the United States is offering to replace any jet fighters Poland is would be willing to give to Ukraine .

Why in the hell would he need to reveal such an obviously inflammatory move ?

Most self destructive administration in US history .

---

I agree, no problem back filling.. Why telegraph it?

Same with no boots on ground, ok I understand realities, but to tell Putin and Xi???? They live too much for the narrative.

---

Incremental escalation.

Somewhere on some thread here, I commented on the degree to which NATO can and does bind the hands of member nations to act unilaterally or in concert. We are having to overcome the shackles that NATO leaves us with. NATO is structured to deter a Russian invasion of western Europe, not to deter Russian aggression elsewhere. This puts boxing gloves and handcuffs on member states in scenarios that do not involve a full-on Russian invasion of a NATO nation. Does Article 5 clause address...."so what happens if a member nation pokes Russia in the eye and Russia pokes them back?" So what you see here with Blinken's statement is the big dog, USA, signalling to Russia "we are going to help upgrade the Polish Air Force from old Warsaw Pact junk to 5th Gen fighters & bombers, and if they choose to sell the old stuff to the Ukrainians, we think that's a perfect way to get rid that poor quality stuff you stuck them with. (how do you like that Kharma, Pootie-put?)"

Is Russia going to go to war with the entire NATO alliance over that?
No. A quarter of their active duty army is bogged down in Ukraine.
Is Russia going to respond to that escalation with a nuclear response against NATO?
Not hardly.
Is Russia going to respond to that with a tactical nuclear strike in Ukraine (definitely Russian doctrine).
Perhaps.
But is that going to stiffen world resolve, or weaken it?
I'd suggest stiffen. More likely to cause Sweden & Finland to join Nato.
Russia is not going to do anything other than bluster.

We have nukes, too, remember.

---

Ok on the nukes.

1- they only work as a deterrent if there is a believe they will be used.
2- Nukes won't work as a deterrent if the other side has resigned themselves that they do not care anymore if they are used.

Putin seems to have made the decision that he is willing to use them or other WMDs unless he gets what he wants. There are many that say give it to him to avoid escalation.

Problem is if Putin really has resigned himself that Russia will go nuclear, there is only one choice: make sure he can't. Otherwise, it is just an exercise in giving him what he wants.

So, either we resurrect Reagan's SDI to shoot them down, figure out how to destroy their missiles, leadership change or he will keep upping the ante until he gets check-mate. I do not see any peaceful way this ends without the west taking on Putin.

---

Bogging him down in Ukraine whilst sanctions drag on and the Billionaire oligarchs suffer (we know they don't care about regular Ivan and Sasha) is a potential strategy for leadership change.

---

Yeah, that worked in 2014. Sanctions are not going to do that because he has China backstopping him. Without China, maybe in a few years.

---

It's never been tried like this before. I like the chance for some good success with this broad application of targeted sanctions. Russians have a history of violent revolution. If we can make their lives terrible enough, they'll have reason enough for a new one, perhaps.

---

Joe Biden is funding BOTH sides of this war! Why does this make sense to anybody? (Whether you are a D, an R, an I, a fake Libertarian, or you don't vote)

---

Yes. Russian oil and nat gas needs to be added to the sanctions. The west needs to cut off ALL funds to Russia where possible.

RMF5630 said:

---

Canon said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

quash said:

---

whiterock said:

---

This one won't. There's too many Russians and no relief forces are going to be coming.

---

We'll see. What you omit is that the economy of the besieger is under siege.

I have mentioned for years on here the Libertarian point that trade ties offer more security than tariffs or military alliances. Russia is learning that firsthand, China secondhand.

---

Russia is a third world country with nuclear weapons, a gas station masquerading as a country, etc….. No other nation of peoples match Russian capacity to absorb pain and suffering.

But so far, Not. Russia is wrecking Ukraine, slowly, deliberately, with ever increasing pressure, to demonstrate that Russia is the big dog is the
Dneiper River watershed…..when it wants to be.

---

20 years ago your description of Russia was correct. However years of natural gas and oil exports have upgraded the country to 2nd world status.

You are correct . Russia is wrecking Ukraine . Suspect the winter weather is slowing down the Russian advance as least as much as the Ukrainian military .

---

Still hoping and praying that some anonymous airstrike will annihilate that 40 mile long Russian convoy that has stalled. Kinda like an old-fashioned turkey shoot. It is being reported that the Russian convoy is running out of fuel and supplies, including food. But what the Hell do we believe in what is being reported these days? This upcoming week should be very telling.

---

Can't believe our Secretary of State went PUBLIC describing how the United States is offering to replace any jet fighters Poland is would be willing to give to Ukraine .

Why in the hell would he need to reveal such an obviously inflammatory move ?

Most self destructive administration in US history .

---

I agree, no problem back filling.. Why telegraph it?

Same with no boots on ground, ok I understand realities, but to tell Putin and Xi???? They live too much for the narrative.

---

Incremental escalation.

Somewhere on some thread here, I commented on the degree to which NATO can and does bind the hands of member nations to act unilaterally or in concert. We are having to overcome the shackles that NATO leaves us with. NATO is structured to deter a Russian invasion of western Europe, not to deter Russian aggression elsewhere. This puts boxing gloves and handcuffs on member states in scenarios that do not involve a full-on Russian invasion of a NATO nation. Does Article 5 clause address...."so what happens if a member nation pokes Russia in the eye and Russia pokes them back?" So what you see here with Blinken's statement is the big dog, USA, signalling to Russia "we are going to help upgrade the Polish Air Force from old Warsaw Pact junk to 5th Gen fighters & bombers, and if they choose to sell the old stuff to the Ukrainians, we think that's a perfect way to get rid that poor quality stuff you stuck them with. (how do you like that Kharma, Pootie-put?)"

Is Russia going to go to war with the entire NATO alliance over that?
No. A quarter of their active duty army is bogged down in Ukraine.
Is Russia going to respond to that escalation with a nuclear response against NATO?
Not hardly.
Is Russia going to respond to that with a tactical nuclear strike in Ukraine (definitely Russian doctrine).
Perhaps.
But is that going to stiffen world resolve, or weaken it?
I'd suggest stiffen. More likely to cause Sweden & Finland to join Nato.
Russia is not going to do anything other than bluster.

We have nukes, too, remember.

---

Ok on the nukes.

1- they only work as a deterrent if there is a believe they will be used.
2- Nukes won't work as a deterrent if the other side has resigned themselves that they do not care anymore if they are used.

Putin seems to have made the decision that he is willing to use them or other WMDs unless he gets what he wants. There are many that say give it to him to avoid escalation.

Problem is if Putin really has resigned himself that Russia will go nuclear, there is only one choice: make sure he can't. Otherwise, it is just an exercise in giving him what he wants.

So, either we resurrect Reagan's SDI to shoot them down, figure out how to destroy their missiles, leadership change or he will keep upping the ante until he gets check-mate. I do not see any peaceful way this ends without the west taking on Putin.

---

Bogging him down in Ukraine whilst sanctions drag on and the Billionaire oligarchs suffer (we know they don't care about regular Ivan and Sasha) is a potential strategy for leadership change.

---

Yeah, that worked in 2014. Sanctions are not going to do that because he has China backstopping him. Without China, maybe in a few years.

---

It's never been tried like this before. I like the chance for some good success with this broad application of targeted sanctions. Russians have a history of violent revolution. If we can make their lives terrible enough, they'll have reason enough for a new one, perhaps.

---

I do agree with you on the sanctions being different this time as most of the world is on-board. It is just China, that gives me pause. I can see Russia moving to a one nation clientele and China taking every drop and more. If you believe Putin is not crazy or terminally ill, than I have to believe he and Xi had this worked out before the Olympics.

---

China is certainly an escape hatch for them….in a small way. I'd actually apply sanctions to countries doing business with Russia too. We are long past time sanctioning China, restricting trade with them on IP theft grounds and human rights grounds, as well. If we can get Europe on board, the markets for Chinese products can be cut significantly, which will cut the cash they have to buy oil.

Yes, I am advocating a trade war with China and Russia. They are becoming far too powerful and bellicose and are exhibiting a willingness to use that power against western interests. We need to stop funding our own destruction.

Canon said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

Canon said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

quash said:

---

whiterock said:

---

This one won't. There's too many Russians and no relief forces are going to be coming.

---

We'll see. What you omit is that the economy of the besieger is under siege.

I have mentioned for years on here the Libertarian point that trade ties offer more security than tariffs or military alliances. Russia is learning that firsthand, China secondhand.

---

Russia is a third world country with nuclear weapons, a gas station masquerading as a country, etc….. No other nation of peoples match Russian capacity to absorb pain and suffering.

But so far, Not. Russia is wrecking Ukraine, slowly, deliberately, with ever increasing pressure, to demonstrate that Russia is the big dog is the
Dneiper River watershed…..when it wants to be.

---

20 years ago your description of Russia was correct. However years of natural gas and oil exports have upgraded the country to 2nd world status.

You are correct . Russia is wrecking Ukraine . Suspect the winter weather is slowing down the Russian advance as least as much as the Ukrainian military .

---

Still hoping and praying that some anonymous airstrike will annihilate that 40 mile long Russian convoy that has stalled. Kinda like an old-fashioned turkey shoot. It is being reported that the Russian convoy is running out of fuel and supplies, including food. But what the Hell do we believe in what is being reported these days? This upcoming week should be very telling.

---

Can't believe our Secretary of State went PUBLIC describing how the United States is offering to replace any jet fighters Poland is would be willing to give to Ukraine .

Why in the hell would he need to reveal such an obviously inflammatory move ?

Most self destructive administration in US history .

---

I agree, no problem back filling.. Why telegraph it?

Same with no boots on ground, ok I understand realities, but to tell Putin and Xi???? They live too much for the narrative.

---

Incremental escalation.

Somewhere on some thread here, I commented on the degree to which NATO can and does bind the hands of member nations to act unilaterally or in concert. We are having to overcome the shackles that NATO leaves us with. NATO is structured to deter a Russian invasion of western Europe, not to deter Russian aggression elsewhere. This puts boxing gloves and handcuffs on member states in scenarios that do not involve a full-on Russian invasion of a NATO nation. Does Article 5 clause address...."so what happens if a member nation pokes Russia in the eye and Russia pokes them back?" So what you see here with Blinken's statement is the big dog, USA, signalling to Russia "we are going to help upgrade the Polish Air Force from old Warsaw Pact junk to 5th Gen fighters & bombers, and if they choose to sell the old stuff to the Ukrainians, we think that's a perfect way to get rid that poor quality stuff you stuck them with. (how do you like that Kharma, Pootie-put?)"

Is Russia going to go to war with the entire NATO alliance over that?
No. A quarter of their active duty army is bogged down in Ukraine.
Is Russia going to respond to that escalation with a nuclear response against NATO?
Not hardly.
Is Russia going to respond to that with a tactical nuclear strike in Ukraine (definitely Russian doctrine).
Perhaps.
But is that going to stiffen world resolve, or weaken it?
I'd suggest stiffen. More likely to cause Sweden & Finland to join Nato.
Russia is not going to do anything other than bluster.

We have nukes, too, remember.

---

Ok on the nukes.

1- they only work as a deterrent if there is a believe they will be used.
2- Nukes won't work as a deterrent if the other side has resigned themselves that they do not care anymore if they are used.

Putin seems to have made the decision that he is willing to use them or other WMDs unless he gets what he wants. There are many that say give it to him to avoid escalation.

Problem is if Putin really has resigned himself that Russia will go nuclear, there is only one choice: make sure he can't. Otherwise, it is just an exercise in giving him what he wants.

So, either we resurrect Reagan's SDI to shoot them down, figure out how to destroy their missiles, leadership change or he will keep upping the ante until he gets check-mate. I do not see any peaceful way this ends without the west taking on Putin.

---

Bogging him down in Ukraine whilst sanctions drag on and the Billionaire oligarchs suffer (we know they don't care about regular Ivan and Sasha) is a potential strategy for leadership change.

---

Yeah, that worked in 2014. Sanctions are not going to do that because he has China backstopping him. Without China, maybe in a few years.

---

It's never been tried like this before. I like the chance for some good success with this broad application of targeted sanctions. Russians have a history of violent revolution. If we can make their lives terrible enough, they'll have reason enough for a new one, perhaps.

---

I do agree with you on the sanctions being different this time as most of the world is on-board. It is just China, that gives me pause. I can see Russia moving to a one nation clientele and China taking every drop and more. If you believe Putin is not crazy or terminally ill, than I have to believe he and Xi had this worked out before the Olympics.

---

China is certainly an escape hatch for them….in a small way. I'd actually apply sanctions to countries doing business with Russia too. We are long past time sanctioning China, restricting trade with them on IP theft grounds and human rights grounds, as well. If we can get Europe on board, the markets for Chinese products can be cut significantly, which will cut the cash they have to buy oil.

Yes, I am advocating a trade war with China and Russia. They are becoming far too powerful and bellicose and are exhibiting a willingness to use that power against western interests. We need to stop funding our own destruction.

---

Typically, I would not agree. But, there are nations that very publicly have stated their goals are to overtake us, destroy u or impact our policy. Specifically, Russia, China, Iran, N Korea and Venezuela have made very anti-USA comments, hard to try and play nice when they have no desire to the same.

EatMoreSalmon said:

---

If NATO hems Russia in by taking in Russia's western neighbors, Russia will expand southward into areas that don't risk nukes.

Russia has gone from Tsars and nobles to Communist premier and commissars to leader and oligarchs. No real change, just name changes. All central authoritarian rule that does not allow independent thought.

Also, Russia has always desired warm weather ports.

---

That is why they will never ever give up Crimea.

Canada2017 said:

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RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

quash said:

---

whiterock said:

---

quash said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

"Putin is quite a bit much much smarter than his internet detractors."

My English friend today told me 'Putin has a case of the clevers'.

That is, he has outsmarted himself.

Putin cannot keep Ukraine, and the price just to take it is far higher than he expected.

---

He doesn't need to keep it.
He needs Ukraine to be too afraid to try to join NATO or EU.

Putin is in a very strong position. It doesn't matter what has happened to his army or campaign thus far. There is a 40mi long column of Russian might headed to surround Kiev. Ukraine might be able to stop the Russian army, but there is no short-term scenario where Ukraine can expel that army anywhere it is currently camped.

We are witnessing something not seen in hundreds of years.....a proper siege of a city (a number of them, actually)....an army camped outside the walls, waiting out a surrender not of an army, but of a people. The Russian army will lob enough ordnance to destabilize civil administration, and keep tightening the noose, trying not to turn 2022 Kiev into 1944 Stalingrad but to force Ukrainian leadership to make hard choices about how much pain (and for how long) the Ukrainian people should be asked to endure. Eventually, submission and planning for insurgency starts to look more and more palatable than rat soup.

Putin doesn't want to roll thru Ukraine like we rolled thru Iraq.
Putin doesn't want to install a new regime.
If he does that, he's got the Pottery Barn principle to deal with - he broke it, now he's got to fix it.

Putin wants to slowly strangle Ukraine, for the purpose of forcing the existing government of Ukraine to submit, to sign documents declaring loyalty to Moscow, to pay tribute to Moscow. When he gets those things (and he's far more likely to get them today than he was two weeks ago), he will go home. And for the next few decades, Ukrainian leadership will remember what it was like that time they made Moscow mad. And even if insurgency erupts after the Russian Army leaves victorious.....whatever regime remains in Kiev will be loathe to dally too much with the West, until and unless insurgency replaces them. Putin will have what he wants, and Ukrainian puppets to enforce it.

---

A lot of medieval sieges failed. Crusades had plenty. Hundred Years War. Etc.

---

This one won't. There's too many Russians and no relief forces are going to be coming.

---

We'll see. What you omit is that the economy of the besieger is under siege.

I have mentioned for years on here the Libertarian point that trade ties offer more security than tariffs or military alliances. Russia is learning that firsthand, China secondhand.

---

Russia is a third world country with nuclear weapons, a gas station masquerading as a country, etc….. No other nation of peoples match Russian capacity to absorb pain and suffering.

But so far, Not. Russia is wrecking Ukraine, slowly, deliberately, with ever increasing pressure, to demonstrate that Russia is the big dog is the
Dneiper River watershed…..when it wants to be.

---

20 years ago your description of Russia was correct. However years of natural gas and oil exports have upgraded the country to 2nd world status.

You are correct . Russia is wrecking Ukraine . Suspect the winter weather is slowing down the Russian advance as least as much as the Ukrainian military .

---

Still hoping and praying that some anonymous airstrike will annihilate that 40 mile long Russian convoy that has stalled. Kinda like an old-fashioned turkey shoot. It is being reported that the Russian convoy is running out of fuel and supplies, including food. But what the Hell do we believe in what is being reported these days? This upcoming week should be very telling.

---

Can't believe our Secretary of State went PUBLIC describing how the United States is offering to replace any jet fighters Poland is would be willing to give to Ukraine .

Why in the hell would he need to reveal such an obviously inflammatory move ?

Most self destructive administration in US history .

---

Me thinks Blinkin is very a very smart and experienced diplomat. Do you really think that Russia wouldn't know what we are doing relative to plane back fill? Similar for the US to say we won't put boots on the ground. Russia knows that and the that the supply line would never let that happen. It's a given. there is no keeping your cards down.

J.R. said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

quash said:

---

whiterock said:

---

quash said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

"Putin is quite a bit much much smarter than his internet detractors."

My English friend today told me 'Putin has a case of the clevers'.

That is, he has outsmarted himself.

Putin cannot keep Ukraine, and the price just to take it is far higher than he expected.

---

He doesn't need to keep it.
He needs Ukraine to be too afraid to try to join NATO or EU.

Putin is in a very strong position. It doesn't matter what has happened to his army or campaign thus far. There is a 40mi long column of Russian might headed to surround Kiev. Ukraine might be able to stop the Russian army, but there is no short-term scenario where Ukraine can expel that army anywhere it is currently camped.

We are witnessing something not seen in hundreds of years.....a proper siege of a city (a number of them, actually)....an army camped outside the walls, waiting out a surrender not of an army, but of a people. The Russian army will lob enough ordnance to destabilize civil administration, and keep tightening the noose, trying not to turn 2022 Kiev into 1944 Stalingrad but to force Ukrainian leadership to make hard choices about how much pain (and for how long) the Ukrainian people should be asked to endure. Eventually, submission and planning for insurgency starts to look more and more palatable than rat soup.

Putin doesn't want to roll thru Ukraine like we rolled thru Iraq.
Putin doesn't want to install a new regime.
If he does that, he's got the Pottery Barn principle to deal with - he broke it, now he's got to fix it.

Putin wants to slowly strangle Ukraine, for the purpose of forcing the existing government of Ukraine to submit, to sign documents declaring loyalty to Moscow, to pay tribute to Moscow. When he gets those things (and he's far more likely to get them today than he was two weeks ago), he will go home. And for the next few decades, Ukrainian leadership will remember what it was like that time they made Moscow mad. And even if insurgency erupts after the Russian Army leaves victorious.....whatever regime remains in Kiev will be loathe to dally too much with the West, until and unless insurgency replaces them. Putin will have what he wants, and Ukrainian puppets to enforce it.

---

A lot of medieval sieges failed. Crusades had plenty. Hundred Years War. Etc.

---

This one won't. There's too many Russians and no relief forces are going to be coming.

---

We'll see. What you omit is that the economy of the besieger is under siege.

I have mentioned for years on here the Libertarian point that trade ties offer more security than tariffs or military alliances. Russia is learning that firsthand, China secondhand.

---

Russia is a third world country with nuclear weapons, a gas station masquerading as a country, etc….. No other nation of peoples match Russian capacity to absorb pain and suffering.

But so far, Not. Russia is wrecking Ukraine, slowly, deliberately, with ever increasing pressure, to demonstrate that Russia is the big dog is the
Dneiper River watershed…..when it wants to be.

---

20 years ago your description of Russia was correct. However years of natural gas and oil exports have upgraded the country to 2nd world status.

You are correct . Russia is wrecking Ukraine . Suspect the winter weather is slowing down the Russian advance as least as much as the Ukrainian military .

---

Still hoping and praying that some anonymous airstrike will annihilate that 40 mile long Russian convoy that has stalled. Kinda like an old-fashioned turkey shoot. It is being reported that the Russian convoy is running out of fuel and supplies, including food. But what the Hell do we believe in what is being reported these days? This upcoming week should be very telling.

---

Can't believe our Secretary of State went PUBLIC describing how the United States is offering to replace any jet fighters Poland is would be willing to give to Ukraine .

Why in the hell would he need to reveal such an obviously inflammatory move ?

Most self destructive administration in US history .

---

Me thinks Blinkin is very a very smart and experienced diplomat. Do you really think that Russia wouldn't know what we are doing relative to plane back fill? Similar for the US to say we won't put boots on the ground. Russia knows that and the that the supply line would never let that happen. It's a given. there is no keeping your cards down.

---

So telegraph it from the View...

Poll: Republicans And Independents Would Defend America If Invaded — Dems Say They Would Flee https://t.co/YVIAhaKZhZ

— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) March 8, 2022

J.R. said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

quash said:

---

whiterock said:

---

quash said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

"Putin is quite a bit much much smarter than his internet detractors."

My English friend today told me 'Putin has a case of the clevers'.

That is, he has outsmarted himself.

Putin cannot keep Ukraine, and the price just to take it is far higher than he expected.

---

He doesn't need to keep it.
He needs Ukraine to be too afraid to try to join NATO or EU.

Putin is in a very strong position. It doesn't matter what has happened to his army or campaign thus far. There is a 40mi long column of Russian might headed to surround Kiev. Ukraine might be able to stop the Russian army, but there is no short-term scenario where Ukraine can expel that army anywhere it is currently camped.

We are witnessing something not seen in hundreds of years.....a proper siege of a city (a number of them, actually)....an army camped outside the walls, waiting out a surrender not of an army, but of a people. The Russian army will lob enough ordnance to destabilize civil administration, and keep tightening the noose, trying not to turn 2022 Kiev into 1944 Stalingrad but to force Ukrainian leadership to make hard choices about how much pain (and for how long) the Ukrainian people should be asked to endure. Eventually, submission and planning for insurgency starts to look more and more palatable than rat soup.

Putin doesn't want to roll thru Ukraine like we rolled thru Iraq.
Putin doesn't want to install a new regime.
If he does that, he's got the Pottery Barn principle to deal with - he broke it, now he's got to fix it.

Putin wants to slowly strangle Ukraine, for the purpose of forcing the existing government of Ukraine to submit, to sign documents declaring loyalty to Moscow, to pay tribute to Moscow. When he gets those things (and he's far more likely to get them today than he was two weeks ago), he will go home. And for the next few decades, Ukrainian leadership will remember what it was like that time they made Moscow mad. And even if insurgency erupts after the Russian Army leaves victorious.....whatever regime remains in Kiev will be loathe to dally too much with the West, until and unless insurgency replaces them. Putin will have what he wants, and Ukrainian puppets to enforce it.

---

A lot of medieval sieges failed. Crusades had plenty. Hundred Years War. Etc.

---

This one won't. There's too many Russians and no relief forces are going to be coming.

---

We'll see. What you omit is that the economy of the besieger is under siege.

I have mentioned for years on here the Libertarian point that trade ties offer more security than tariffs or military alliances. Russia is learning that firsthand, China secondhand.

---

Russia is a third world country with nuclear weapons, a gas station masquerading as a country, etc….. No other nation of peoples match Russian capacity to absorb pain and suffering.

But so far, Not. Russia is wrecking Ukraine, slowly, deliberately, with ever increasing pressure, to demonstrate that Russia is the big dog is the
Dneiper River watershed…..when it wants to be.

---

20 years ago your description of Russia was correct. However years of natural gas and oil exports have upgraded the country to 2nd world status.

You are correct . Russia is wrecking Ukraine . Suspect the winter weather is slowing down the Russian advance as least as much as the Ukrainian military .

---

Still hoping and praying that some anonymous airstrike will annihilate that 40 mile long Russian convoy that has stalled. Kinda like an old-fashioned turkey shoot. It is being reported that the Russian convoy is running out of fuel and supplies, including food. But what the Hell do we believe in what is being reported these days? This upcoming week should be very telling.

---

Can't believe our Secretary of State went PUBLIC describing how the United States is offering to replace any jet fighters Poland is would be willing to give to Ukraine .

Why in the hell would he need to reveal such an obviously inflammatory move ?

Most self destructive administration in US history .

---

Me thinks Blinkin is very a very smart and experienced diplomat.

---

A. The United States has no business being part of a deal to send Polish jets with Ukrainian pilots to fight Russian jets.. None . Incredibly inflammatory and stupid move.

B. Providing such jets puts POLAND at extreme risk. Poland and Russia have fought several wars over the centuries . 2 in the last 100 years alone . Like with Ukrainians ....Russians feel entitled to kill Poles. The Biden administration is providing Putin a legitimate reason to attack Poland . Hope the Poles are smart enough NOT to be so reckless.

C. Of course ......very quickly Russian intelligence would have ascertained what was going on. But why telegraph such a move. Beyond ridiculous .

D. I am convinced there are individuals within our government and various corporate mega campaign contributors who are attempting to back the US into a conventional war with Russia . They believe a nuclear war wouldn't break out.....or if it did........it would be winnable or at the least accomplish some bizarre array of secondary objectives. .

Canada2017 said:

---

J.R. said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

quash said:

---

20 years ago your description of Russia was correct. However years of natural gas and oil exports have upgraded the country to 2nd world status.

---

---

You are correct . Russia is wrecking Ukraine . Suspect the winter weather is slowing down the Russian advance as least as much as the Ukrainian military .

---

Still hoping and praying that some anonymous airstrike will annihilate that 40 mile long Russian convoy that has stalled. Kinda like an old-fashioned turkey shoot. It is being reported that the Russian convoy is running out of fuel and supplies, including food. But what the Hell do we believe in what is being reported these days? This upcoming week should be very telling.

---

Can't believe our Secretary of State went PUBLIC describing how the United States is offering to replace any jet fighters Poland is would be willing to give to Ukraine .

Why in the hell would he need to reveal such an obviously inflammatory move ?

Most self destructive administration in US history .

---

Me thinks Blinkin is very a very smart and experienced diplomat.

---

A. The United States has no business being part of a deal to send Polish jets with Ukrainian pilots to fight Russian jets.. None . Incredibly inflammatory and stupid move. Is it really?

B. Providing such jets puts POLAND at extreme risk. Poland and Russia have fought several wars over the centuries . 2 in the last 100 years alone . Like with Ukrainians ....Russians feel entitled to kill Poles. The Biden administration is providing Putin a legitimate reason to attack Poland . Hope the Poles are smart enough NOT to be so reckless. That assumes Poland isn't already at extreme risk, which it is.

C. Of course ......very quickly Russian intelligence would have ascertained what was going on. But why telegraph such a move. Beyond ridiculous. Announcing policy has its own benefits.

D. I am convinced there are individuals within our government and various corporate mega campaign contributors who are attempting to back the US into a conventional war with Russia . They believe a nuclear war wouldn't break out.....or if it did........it would be winnable or at the least accomplish some bizarre array of secondary objectives. We will not be at war with Russia unless Russia invades a NATO state, or our troops cross the borders of either Russia, Belarus, or Ukraine.

---

Your thinking on this has a perhaps unintentional premise that Putin has a free hand to do as he wishes in Ukraine....that we will not get involved at all. If that is not the premise, then one must start peeling onions.

A. Reasonable people can debate pros/cons of a Polish/Ukrainian Lend-Lease, but the "it's inflammatory" con is one of the weakest, and time is making it weaker. The Russian Bear has a wildcat by the tail, almost stalemated. The way out of a quagmire is not to launch an invasion of different country in a massive alliance of wealthier, more powerful nations. So the longer the Russian Army is bogged down in Ukraine, the less risk there is of Russia escalating a response to any support for Ukraine.

B. Putin has already stated that he wants all the former WP nations back under Russian hegemony, so Poland is merely taking a prudent incremental step to make sure that doesn't happen......keep Russia bogged down in Ukraine. And, as noted above, Russia is in no position to be opening up new fronts anywhere, for a considerable period of time. (and one can safely presume that the Russian difficulties facilitated the Jets-to-Ukraine option which would have been quite a bit more risky on Day 0).

C. One can provide AK rifles & ammo covertly quite easily; jet aircraft not so much. Announcing what cannot be hidden has meaning - yeah, we're going to do this, and we know you can't do anything about it, big boy, so chose your next steps wisely.

D. We are not mobilized for an invasion of Belarus or Ukraine or Russia. Russia is not mobilized for an invasion of any NATO member. So there isn't so much of a hair trigger as many assume. And all the talk about Putin being a madman is poppycock. He is not going to invite the nuclear destruction of Russia by launching nukes at Nato in a temper-tantrum over Polish sale of old military hardware to Ukraine.

Militarily speaking, Putin has really placed a ton of trust in the "Nato Paradox" I have mentioned earlier....that the NATO alliance is a formidable limitation on the ability of member states to engage in unilateral foreign policy. Look at the table map: if anyone were to mobilize and strike thru Belarus toward Kiev, Russia would have to begin an immediate strategic withdrawal from Ukraine. It has approx a quarter of its active duty army involved in this operation, and the entire Kiev axis of it (the main axis) would be at risk of getting cut off and destroyed. Russia could not easily denude the east or the homeland strategic reserve, so doesn't have enough troops left to counter a fresh invasion. Such would literally destroy the Russian Army. Putin and his generals know this, so their entire Ukraine operation is predicated on their assumption that neither NATO nor none of its powers individually would get involved. IIf Russia wants to bleat about the sale of Polish jets to Ukraine, we just hand him a copy of his statements about his intentions and tell him to think very carefully about his next actions. Putin needs to be disabused of his assumptions that he has a free hand in Slavic world.

NATO membership for Ukraine is not a good idea at this time, and we certainly should not invade in support of Ukraine, nor encourage anyone else to do so. That said, we have to remember who we are and what we believe. The USA should never fail to give support to democratic processes, to nations seeking to remain free. And tyrants need to know that wherever they chose to move, we will at minimum throw tacks in their path.

Canada2017 said:

---

J.R. said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

quash said:

---

whiterock said:

---

quash said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

"Putin is quite a bit much much smarter than his internet detractors."

My English friend today told me 'Putin has a case of the clevers'.

That is, he has outsmarted himself.

Putin cannot keep Ukraine, and the price just to take it is far higher than he expected.

---

He doesn't need to keep it.
He needs Ukraine to be too afraid to try to join NATO or EU.

Putin is in a very strong position. It doesn't matter what has happened to his army or campaign thus far. There is a 40mi long column of Russian might headed to surround Kiev. Ukraine might be able to stop the Russian army, but there is no short-term scenario where Ukraine can expel that army anywhere it is currently camped.

We are witnessing something not seen in hundreds of years.....a proper siege of a city (a number of them, actually)....an army camped outside the walls, waiting out a surrender not of an army, but of a people. The Russian army will lob enough ordnance to destabilize civil administration, and keep tightening the noose, trying not to turn 2022 Kiev into 1944 Stalingrad but to force Ukrainian leadership to make hard choices about how much pain (and for how long) the Ukrainian people should be asked to endure. Eventually, submission and planning for insurgency starts to look more and more palatable than rat soup.

Putin doesn't want to roll thru Ukraine like we rolled thru Iraq.
Putin doesn't want to install a new regime.
If he does that, he's got the Pottery Barn principle to deal with - he broke it, now he's got to fix it.

Putin wants to slowly strangle Ukraine, for the purpose of forcing the existing government of Ukraine to submit, to sign documents declaring loyalty to Moscow, to pay tribute to Moscow. When he gets those things (and he's far more likely to get them today than he was two weeks ago), he will go home. And for the next few decades, Ukrainian leadership will remember what it was like that time they made Moscow mad. And even if insurgency erupts after the Russian Army leaves victorious.....whatever regime remains in Kiev will be loathe to dally too much with the West, until and unless insurgency replaces them. Putin will have what he wants, and Ukrainian puppets to enforce it.

---

A lot of medieval sieges failed. Crusades had plenty. Hundred Years War. Etc.

---

This one won't. There's too many Russians and no relief forces are going to be coming.

---

We'll see. What you omit is that the economy of the besieger is under siege.

I have mentioned for years on here the Libertarian point that trade ties offer more security than tariffs or military alliances. Russia is learning that firsthand, China secondhand.

---

Russia is a third world country with nuclear weapons, a gas station masquerading as a country, etc….. No other nation of peoples match Russian capacity to absorb pain and suffering.

But so far, Not. Russia is wrecking Ukraine, slowly, deliberately, with ever increasing pressure, to demonstrate that Russia is the big dog is the
Dneiper River watershed…..when it wants to be.

---

20 years ago your description of Russia was correct. However years of natural gas and oil exports have upgraded the country to 2nd world status.

You are correct . Russia is wrecking Ukraine . Suspect the winter weather is slowing down the Russian advance as least as much as the Ukrainian military .

---

Still hoping and praying that some anonymous airstrike will annihilate that 40 mile long Russian convoy that has stalled. Kinda like an old-fashioned turkey shoot. It is being reported that the Russian convoy is running out of fuel and supplies, including food. But what the Hell do we believe in what is being reported these days? This upcoming week should be very telling.

---

Can't believe our Secretary of State went PUBLIC describing how the United States is offering to replace any jet fighters Poland is would be willing to give to Ukraine .

Why in the hell would he need to reveal such an obviously inflammatory move ?

Most self destructive administration in US history .

---

Me thinks Blinkin is very a very smart and experienced diplomat.

---

A. The United States has no business being part of a deal to send Polish jets with Ukrainian pilots to fight Russian jets.. None . Incredibly inflammatory and stupid move.

B. Providing such jets puts POLAND at extreme risk. Poland and Russia have fought several wars over the centuries . 2 in the last 100 years alone . Like with Ukrainians ....Russians feel entitled to kill Poles. The Biden administration is providing Putin a legitimate reason to attack Poland . Hope the Poles are smart enough NOT to be so reckless.

C. Of course ......very quickly Russian intelligence would have ascertained what was going on. But why telegraph such a move. Beyond ridiculous .

D. I am convinced there are individuals within our government and various corporate mega campaign contributors who are attempting to back the US into a conventional war with Russia . They believe a nuclear war wouldn't break out.....or if it did........it would be winnable or at the least accomplish some bizarre array of secondary objectives. .

---

I agree with you on a lot of things, but this is one we just do not agree.

What risk? Risk Russia will invade sovereign nations, threaten Europe, form an alliance with China and use oil to extort Europe? Guess what, we are there. No amount of appeasement, restraint or subordination to Putin's demands will stop him doing what he wants.

Especially, if he knows all he is to do is threaten and activate a few missile units. He has made nukes, non-issues. You cannot move forward in a world where he can use the nukes to get what he wants. Your logic puts us there. MAD is not working because he does not believe that short of sending a nuke to the US mainland the US will do anything. That is what is causing the current mess and it is going to get worse if we allow Putin to set the terms.

Signed, Jughead probably on ignore...

RMF5630 said:

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Canada2017 said:

---

J.R. said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

quash said:

---

whiterock said:

---

quash said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

Still hoping and praying that some anonymous airstrike will annihilate that 40 mile long Russian convoy that has stalled. Kinda like an old-fashioned turkey shoot. It is being reported that the Russian convoy is running out of fuel and supplies, including food. But what the Hell do we believe in what is being reported these days? This upcoming week should be very telling.

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

Can't believe our Secretary of State went PUBLIC describing how the United States is offering to replace any jet fighters Poland is would be willing to give to Ukraine .

Why in the hell would he need to reveal such an obviously inflammatory move ?

Most self destructive administration in US history .

---

Me thinks Blinkin is very a very smart and experienced diplomat.

---

A. The United States has no business being part of a deal to send Polish jets with Ukrainian pilots to fight Russian jets.. None . Incredibly inflammatory and stupid move.

B. Providing such jets puts POLAND at extreme risk. Poland and Russia have fought several wars over the centuries . 2 in the last 100 years alone . Like with Ukrainians ....Russians feel entitled to kill Poles. The Biden administration is providing Putin a legitimate reason to attack Poland . Hope the Poles are smart enough NOT to be so reckless.

C. Of course ......very quickly Russian intelligence would have ascertained what was going on. But why telegraph such a move. Beyond ridiculous .

D. I am convinced there are individuals within our government and various corporate mega campaign contributors who are attempting to back the US into a conventional war with Russia . They believe a nuclear war wouldn't break out.....or if it did........it would be winnable or at the least accomplish some bizarre array of secondary objectives. .

---

I agree with you on a lot of things, but this is one we just do not agree.

What risk? Risk Russia will invade sovereign nations, threaten Europe, form an alliance with China and use oil to extort Europe? Guess what, we are there. No amount of appeasement, restraint or subordination to Putin's demands will stop him doing what he wants.

Especially, if he knows all he is to do is threaten and activate a few missile units. He has made nukes, non-issues. You cannot move forward in a world where he can use the nukes to get what he wants. Your logic puts us there. MAD is not working because he does not believe that short of sending a nuke to the US mainland the US will do anything. That is what is causing the current mess and it is going to get worse if we allow Putin to set the terms.

Signed, Jughead probably on ignore...

---

That reasoning suffers from a number of false assumptions - that nothing will deter Putin, that his nuclear capability is a deterrent and NATO's is not, that he wants hegemony over Europe rather than lands in a traditional Russian sphere, that we are powerless to stop that hegemony without inciting nuclear war, etc....

NATO is most definitely a deterrent.
MAD is not dead.
Yes, Putin is a tyrant; No, he is not a madman.
No, one AR round hitting a Russian solider is not going to turn US cities into asphalt parking lots.

Yes, he would like to shatter the NATO alliance, to shake out the Baltics, Poland, Hungary, Sloakia, Romania, Bulgaria. That would give him hegemony over the Slavic world and a shatter zone between Russia and Germany. Such will not happen in our lifetime. The western alliance has been rejuvenated. Germany just this week has announced full financial commitment to NATO, modernization of forces, and strategic reordering of energy policy to punish Russia.

Putin has made a number of miscalculations, and he will have his hands full surviving them. It is not unthinkable that the sanctions could prompt the Boyars to pay a Russian General to take him out. Russian tanks on parade down the Champs d'Elysee and such are quite shrill scenarios. They are a shadow of their former selves and even outright victory in Ukraine will come with sobering realities. How many divisions of loyal troops and commanders can he raise from pacified Ukraine?

This will all take time to play out and there will be sweat on furrowed brows.
The human race survives.
So does the Western Alliance.
If you want more margin of safety, dig more coal.