The poll numbers say you are wrong .

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

Mothra said:

---

ABC BEAR said:

---

You will have 3 choices in 2024:

1) Trump

2) Harris

3) Stay Home

---

It's not going to be Harris. It will be Newsom. Wait and see.

---

The black politicians will go nuts if Kamala is sidelined. The Dems are gonna blow themselves up! Should be fun to watch.

---

Dems feel into line when Bernie got the shaft .

Republicans need to learn from them .

Canada2017 said:

---

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

Mothra said:

---

ABC BEAR said:

---

You will have 3 choices in 2024:

1) Trump

2) Harris

3) Stay Home

---

It's not going to be Harris. It will be Newsom. Wait and see.

---

The black politicians will go nuts if Kamala is sidelined. The Dems are gonna blow themselves up! Should be fun to watch.

---

Dems feel into line when Bernie got the shaft .

Republicans need to learn from them .

---

Considering what happened in 2016, there is a very different lesson you should learn, Canada.

Mothra said:

---

whiterock said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

DeSantis.

I don't think there's much need to consider anyone else. The Trump supporters would flow to DeSantis in large enough numbers to make the rest of the race just a contest for the VP slot.

I.E. DeSantis is sitting on approx 25%. What percentage of Trump's approx 60% would DeSantis have to receive to win? Answer: a third. At 45% support in what will likely be a crowded field, there wouldn't be enough votes left for anyone else to mount a credible challenge. (remember, primaries are winner take all = no runoffs.)

So who here thinks more than 2/3rds of Trump supporters will flow to the likes of Pence, Haley, Pompeo, etc......

---

Gotta keep in mind primary vs general. Trump may be able to win primary, but general? He brings alot of bad blood, distrust and motivation against him holding office again.

This could end up being a classic "could he vs should he?" If Trump runs, you will see a motivated progressive and Democratic base and will the Independents go to Trump after 2020? Whether he is guilty of a crime or not, the turmoil he was involved with and his juvenile response is a negative to many, even if his loyalist don't want to admit it. The best you can say about his 2020 behavior is he acted poorly.

I still don't believe the January 6th Commission is legit or that Trump did anything to get him banned or prosecuted, but he did not handle the situation well and placed many in very tough situations. Poor Cassidy had to clean up the spaghetti before donning her cape and saving Democracy...

---

original question implied primary. And the primary will not be particularly competitive. If Trump runs, he wins. If he doesn't, DeSantis wins. The next most viable alternative scenario to that is that DeSantis continues to strengthen enough to knock off Trump. That will be on the order of single-digit probability, but that will give Oso, et al enough to dream of unicorns & pixie dust. I continue to suggest that the assembled experts here recognize that a Trump-DeSantis ticket is the mostly likely outcome of all, by an goodly margin.

When we look at the general, Trump is materially out-polling DeSantis, consistently outside the margin of error. He's also outpolling the two most likely Democrat candidates, by similar or greater margins.

None of that is saying what should/ought.
Saying what is and therefore what is most likely to be.

Trump is going to run stronger in the general than most here realize. He will be a juggernaut all the way thru to the WH. The legislative package Manchin just signed on to virtually guarantees it. You cannot continue to deficit spend while simultaneously raising taxes in the midst of an economy mired in historically bad stagflation and expect the economy to rebound your direction. In fact, the new green energy package is a recognition of that....Dems know their time is passing and they will spend the rest of it hammering thru their wish list, to make the GOP spend all its energy undoing it all over the 2022-2026 period. The war in Ukraine will drag on for at LEAST another 6-12 months, further stifling economic recovery around the world. So the US economy is going to get worse and worse and Dems will have nothing to run on. Even a new pandemic won't help them, given the way they mismanaged Covid. In the face of that, they will face a slashing populist with the right ideas who has exactly the kind of record of success needed to exploit the dynamics of the cycle..

2024 will better match Trump's skills than 2016.
Trump critics are completely misreading the landscape.
That's what happens when one lets their hopes lead their logic.

---

And he will be unhinged in his revenge tour, unable to control his worse impulses.

---

Pretty sure this is why 80M people are going to vote for him.

Oldbear83 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

Mothra said:

---

ABC BEAR said:

---

You will have 3 choices in 2024:

1) Trump

2) Harris

3) Stay Home

---

It's not going to be Harris. It will be Newsom. Wait and see.

---

The black politicians will go nuts if Kamala is sidelined. The Dems are gonna blow themselves up! Should be fun to watch.

---

Dems feel into line when Bernie got the shaft .

Republicans need to learn from them .

---

Considering what happened in 2016, there is a very different lesson you should learn, Canada.

---

Amusing .....you really believe millions of women , moderates and younger voters are going to magically stop detesting Trump because old white guys think they should .

GrowlTowel said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

Mothra said:

---

ABC BEAR said:

---

You will have 3 choices in 2024:

1) Trump

2) Harris

3) Stay Home

---

It's not going to be Harris. It will be Newsom. Wait and see.

---

That is an interesting thought .

Only drawback is that he is a white male.




Could very well happen .

---

The party of racism will nominate the product of racism.

---

Eventually yes.

But the Dem old guard still hasn't died off yet. They will manipulate the party machine still again and nominate someone who stands a a chance of winning in 2024.

And Newsom definitely checks off a lot of boxes.

Married A Horn said:

---

Mothra said:

---

whiterock said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

DeSantis.

I don't think there's much need to consider anyone else. The Trump supporters would flow to DeSantis in large enough numbers to make the rest of the race just a contest for the VP slot.

I.E. DeSantis is sitting on approx 25%. What percentage of Trump's approx 60% would DeSantis have to receive to win? Answer: a third. At 45% support in what will likely be a crowded field, there wouldn't be enough votes left for anyone else to mount a credible challenge. (remember, primaries are winner take all = no runoffs.)

So who here thinks more than 2/3rds of Trump supporters will flow to the likes of Pence, Haley, Pompeo, etc......

---

Gotta keep in mind primary vs general. Trump may be able to win primary, but general? He brings alot of bad blood, distrust and motivation against him holding office again.

This could end up being a classic "could he vs should he?" If Trump runs, you will see a motivated progressive and Democratic base and will the Independents go to Trump after 2020? Whether he is guilty of a crime or not, the turmoil he was involved with and his juvenile response is a negative to many, even if his loyalist don't want to admit it. The best you can say about his 2020 behavior is he acted poorly.

I still don't believe the January 6th Commission is legit or that Trump did anything to get him banned or prosecuted, but he did not handle the situation well and placed many in very tough situations. Poor Cassidy had to clean up the spaghetti before donning her cape and saving Democracy...

---

original question implied primary. And the primary will not be particularly competitive. If Trump runs, he wins. If he doesn't, DeSantis wins. The next most viable alternative scenario to that is that DeSantis continues to strengthen enough to knock off Trump. That will be on the order of single-digit probability, but that will give Oso, et al enough to dream of unicorns & pixie dust. I continue to suggest that the assembled experts here recognize that a Trump-DeSantis ticket is the mostly likely outcome of all, by an goodly margin.

When we look at the general, Trump is materially out-polling DeSantis, consistently outside the margin of error. He's also outpolling the two most likely Democrat candidates, by similar or greater margins.

None of that is saying what should/ought.
Saying what is and therefore what is most likely to be.

Trump is going to run stronger in the general than most here realize. He will be a juggernaut all the way thru to the WH. The legislative package Manchin just signed on to virtually guarantees it. You cannot continue to deficit spend while simultaneously raising taxes in the midst of an economy mired in historically bad stagflation and expect the economy to rebound your direction. In fact, the new green energy package is a recognition of that....Dems know their time is passing and they will spend the rest of it hammering thru their wish list, to make the GOP spend all its energy undoing it all over the 2022-2026 period. The war in Ukraine will drag on for at LEAST another 6-12 months, further stifling economic recovery around the world. So the US economy is going to get worse and worse and Dems will have nothing to run on. Even a new pandemic won't help them, given the way they mismanaged Covid. In the face of that, they will face a slashing populist with the right ideas who has exactly the kind of record of success needed to exploit the dynamics of the cycle..

2024 will better match Trump's skills than 2016.
Trump critics are completely misreading the landscape.
That's what happens when one lets their hopes lead their logic.

---

And he will be unhinged in his revenge tour, unable to control his worse impulses.

---

Pretty sure this is why 80M people are going to vote for him.

---

A lot of people voted for him despite his inability to control his worse impulses. A lot of those same people won't be voting for him this time around.

And it still won't be enough. It lost him the last election.

Yeah but what are his pronouns?

Canada2017 said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

Mothra said:

---

ABC BEAR said:

---

You will have 3 choices in 2024:

1) Trump

2) Harris

3) Stay Home

---

It's not going to be Harris. It will be Newsom. Wait and see.

---

The black politicians will go nuts if Kamala is sidelined. The Dems are gonna blow themselves up! Should be fun to watch.

---

Dems feel into line when Bernie got the shaft .

Republicans need to learn from them .

---

Considering what happened in 2016, there is a very different lesson you should learn, Canada.

---

Amusing .....you really believe millions of women , moderates and younger voters are going to magically stop detesting Trump because old white guys think they should .

---

No, I believe you should pay more attention to what voters are saying right now.

You are projecting your hatred of Trump into assuming groups do, which frankly do not.

Oldbear83 said:

---

1. De Santis

2. Cruz

3. Gov. Hutchinson

4. Rush Limbaugh (because even a dead conservative is a better POTUS than any Democrat)

---

Not just no on asa. Unless you like spineless, wishy-washy and middling. Unless there is another gov hutchinson I'm missing. Luckily he's term limited here. He does have a nice smile, tho. But pretty sure he's still masking, so harder to see it.

BUbearinARK said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

1. De Santis

2. Cruz

3. Gov. Hutchinson

4. Rush Limbaugh (because even a dead conservative is a better POTUS than any Democrat)

---

Not just no on asa. Unless you like spineless, wishy-washy and middling. Unless there is another gov hutchinson I'm missing. Luckily he's term limited here. He does have a nice smile, tho. But pretty sure he's still masking, so harder to see it.

---

Maybe so. I have been judging by results, but as we get closer to 2024, I will be looking a lot closer at the candidates.

Oldbear83 said:

---

BUbearinARK said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

1. De Santis

2. Cruz

3. Gov. Hutchinson

4. Rush Limbaugh (because even a dead conservative is a better POTUS than any Democrat)

---

Not just no on asa. Unless you like spineless, wishy-washy and middling. Unless there is another gov hutchinson I'm missing. Luckily he's term limited here. He does have a nice smile, tho. But pretty sure he's still masking, so harder to see it.

---

Maybe so. I have been judging by results, but as we get closer to 2024, I will be looking a lot closer at the candidates.

---

He was for ending mask mandates until he was against it. And other such nonsense. They'll be plenty to read about. He's someone who values optics over principles, and that isn't even an opinion (maybe it is, but it's one from experience )

Oldbear83 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

Mothra said:

---

ABC BEAR said:

---

You will have 3 choices in 2024:

1) Trump

2) Harris

3) Stay Home

---

It's not going to be Harris. It will be Newsom. Wait and see.

---

The black politicians will go nuts if Kamala is sidelined. The Dems are gonna blow themselves up! Should be fun to watch.

---

Dems feel into line when Bernie got the shaft .

Republicans need to learn from them .

---

Considering what happened in 2016, there is a very different lesson you should learn, Canada.

---

Amusing .....you really believe millions of women , moderates and younger voters are going to magically stop detesting Trump because old white guys think they should .

---

No, I believe you should pay more attention to what voters are saying right now.

You are projecting your hatred of Trump into assuming groups do, which frankly do not.

---

the caveat is right now only counts right now.. 2024 is too far away to project "right now" polling as worthwhile

That being said, if election held today, Trump would smoke any Dem canidate and carry the popular vote between 3-5 points.

ATL Bear said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

ABC BEAR said:

---

You will have 3 choices in 2024:

1) Trump

2) Harris

3) Stay Home

---

4. None of the above.

---

So for ATL, '4' means "Stay Home but deny doing so"

---

I've never stayed home for a general election and rarely ever miss a primary or runoff. I wrote in Ted Cruz in 2016. I'll write in someone else if Trump is the GOP candidate in 2024.

But you certainly are a Trump sycophant that pretends to not want him in the race. You and your ilk are the reason his sorry ass is still even considered. And don't talk to me about policy when he wasn't even the architect of his own agenda.

---

** sigh **

So all my posts from 2016 don't count? Every criticism I posted no longer exists because I reject the Democrat's kangaroo court?

I was very clear about 2024. Too freaking bad for you if you cannot accept that someone is able to support Trump's innocence while working to get someone better elected.

It really says more about you than me.

And what it says is pathetic.

---

We aren't talking innocence or guilt. It's fascinating to me. From the beginning I've said Jan 6 wasn't an insurrection. This political theater of hearings used to smear political opponents (its bigger than Trump) is a travesty. I defend Trump against that because of the broader implications to our country. But it's also why I reject Trump now and anyone who supports his continued charade.

Trump went rogue outside and before Jan 6. He went after people in his own party, not RINOs either, in an unscrupulous and destructive manner after his defeat. He revealed a maniacal power lust that should have scared away anyone with a sense of limited government much less decency and respect for anything other than ego. The fact he continues to garner the support he does is what's really pathetic. Better candidates? Even Desantis is holding back due to the BS he'd have to go through in a face off with Trump. This isn't about mean tweets. The lengths Trump will go to stay in power have been revealed, and everyone should reject him for that, especially considering the position he seeks. Time to move on.

If that's pathetic, then I'm happy to be such, because i truly believe in the principles bigger than the politics.

---

unfortunately, you have to play politics and win elections to get a stronger hand to get pieces of your principles enacted into laws that invariably contain pieces of the other guy's principles too.

Canada2017 said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

ABC BEAR said:

---

Trump is going to win the nomination and the general in a landslide over Kamala. The real question is 'who will be Trump's VP.' This person will get 4 years OJT to prepare for 8 years of their own in the WH.

---

Sounds similar to the landslide win Trump was going to have over Biden in 2020.

---

Truth. Nominate Trump and lose. Why do the Dems want to run against Trump?

---

lol, the Dems want nothing to do with running against Trump..

---

Wrong


Trump is too old , too obnoxious and too self destructive .


Dems are extending these ridiculous January 6th hearings just praying that Trump is the Republican nominee.

---

you think all of this is help Trump to be the nominee..

Lord..

---

THINK PEOPLE


Dems know Trump's base loves him regardless of these Jan 6th hearings.

All this BS is geared toward INDEPENDENTS ........making them begin to suspect Trump really did attempt to overthrow the US government .

Repeat a lie long enough and weak minded people will begin to believe it .

Then Trump's consistent ability to self destruct will do the rest.


Trump is the ONE guy the Dem's can beat easily .

Amazing how some of you will not accept the fact that women, moderates and younger voters absolutely HATE the clown....policies be damned .

---

except that polling does not bear that out. He INCREASED his share of the female vote in 2020 and is winning with independents at the moment.

RMF5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

DeSantis.

I don't think there's much need to consider anyone else. The Trump supporters would flow to DeSantis in large enough numbers to make the rest of the race just a contest for the VP slot.

I.E. DeSantis is sitting on approx 25%. What percentage of Trump's approx 60% would DeSantis have to receive to win? Answer: a third. At 45% support in what will likely be a crowded field, there wouldn't be enough votes left for anyone else to mount a credible challenge. (remember, primaries are winner take all = no runoffs.)

So who here thinks more than 2/3rds of Trump supporters will flow to the likes of Pence, Haley, Pompeo, etc......

---

Gotta keep in mind primary vs general. Trump may be able to win primary, but general? He brings alot of bad blood, distrust and motivation against him holding office again.

This could end up being a classic "could he vs should he?" If Trump runs, you will see a motivated progressive and Democratic base and will the Independents go to Trump after 2020? Whether he is guilty of a crime or not, the turmoil he was involved with and his juvenile response is a negative to many, even if his loyalist don't want to admit it. The best you can say about his 2020 behavior is he acted poorly.

I still don't believe the January 6th Commission is legit or that Trump did anything to get him banned or prosecuted, but he did not handle the situation well and placed many in very tough situations. Poor Cassidy had to clean up the spaghetti before donning her cape and saving Democracy...

---

original question implied primary. And the primary will not be particularly competitive. If Trump runs, he wins. If he doesn't, DeSantis wins. The next most viable alternative scenario to that is that DeSantis continues to strengthen enough to knock off Trump. That will be on the order of single-digit probability, but that will give Oso, et al enough to dream of unicorns & pixie dust. I continue to suggest that the assembled experts here recognize that a Trump-DeSantis ticket is the mostly likely outcome of all, by an goodly margin.

When we look at the general, Trump is materially out-polling DeSantis, consistently outside the margin of error. He's also outpolling the two most likely Democrat candidates, by similar or greater margins.

None of that is saying what should/ought.
Saying what is and therefore what is most likely to be.

Trump is going to run stronger in the general than most here realize. He will be a juggernaut all the way thru to the WH. The legislative package Manchin just signed on to virtually guarantees it. You cannot continue to deficit spend while simultaneously raising taxes in the midst of an economy mired in historically bad stagflation and expect the economy to rebound your direction. In fact, the new green energy package is a recognition of that....Dems know their time is passing and they will spend the rest of it hammering thru their wish list, to make the GOP spend all its energy undoing it all over the 2022-2026 period. The war in Ukraine will drag on for at LEAST another 6-12 months, further stifling economic recovery around the world. So the US economy is going to get worse and worse and Dems will have nothing to run on. Even a new pandemic won't help them, given the way they mismanaged Covid. In the face of that, they will face a slashing populist with the right ideas who has exactly the kind of record of success needed to exploit the dynamics of the cycle..

2024 will better match Trump's skills than 2016.
Trump critics are completely misreading the landscape.
That's what happens when one lets their hopes lead their logic.

---

Is it worth the risk? Is it worth risking the National response not being a juggernaut? Is it worth the response being a run to the other side and giving the Dems four more years to implement this platform?

---

is it worth the risk of running a candidate that doesn't excite the majority of the party?

Trump is at 60% primary support. His next closest rival is at 25% and appeals to the same kind of voter. That should tell you all you need to know. But if you're going to run the numbers.....what percentage of each candidate's supporters will eagerly accept the other? Before you answer, remember Trump has +2x the number of primary voters that DeSantis has. I think the answer is pretty clear, and data on the Trump coalition backs it up - DeSantis has a more traditional conservative GOP voter more inclined to play team ball; Trump has brought a huge number of new voters (populists) into the party who are less inclined to play team ball. SImply put, at this point in time, Trump is going to bring a bigger base. Most importantly: he HAS it already. DeSantis does not, and it cannot be assumed that he will be able to maintain it. (Bird in Hand vs Two in Bush) You can expect a much higher percentage (of a smaller number) of DeSantis voters to swing behind Trump, and a much lower percentage (of a larger number) to swing behind DeSantis. That's why you see Trump net positives in high-80 percentages within the GOP. That's why you see all the GOP down-ballot candidates chasing his endorsement.

If we apply that calculation to the 1-12 other candidates who cumulatively appeal to about 15% of the base electorate, not one....NOT ONE.....has a prayer of assembling what the first two already have. double digit percentage points of the Trump base evaporate if anyone in this lot is on top of the ticket. Nobody NOBODY on the GOP side can bring as united and excited a base to the 2024 election.

You cannot win the middle if you can't energize your base.
You cannot win the middle if you can't energize your base.
How on earth does one propose to inspire a moderate (see the contradiction in terms?) if one cannot inspire one's own base?

Your questions are the logic of peace & prosperity, of centrists, of winning in the middle. That's the safe way to plan to win, in normal politics. Coalitions aren't going to change much, and subtle swings in the middle can be decisive. But we not in that place. We are in regime politics amidst a once-in-a-lifetime realignment of the parties at a time of stagflation, societal collapse, and global war that will by this fall be firing up regime instability throughout much of the 3rd world dependent on imported food. The center has failed. There is no middle ground. And Democrats have nothing to campaign for....all the solutions to all the problems involve repudiation of their own agenda, which is responsible for so much of the madness.

Trump will be a better fit for 2024 than he was in 2016. How do we test that? Watch the mid-terms and see how his endorsements perform. He was 98% successful in the primaries. Will we overperform, or underperform in the general? Smart money would be on the former.

whiterock said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

ABC BEAR said:

---

Trump is going to win the nomination and the general in a landslide over Kamala. The real question is 'who will be Trump's VP.' This person will get 4 years OJT to prepare for 8 years of their own in the WH.

---

Sounds similar to the landslide win Trump was going to have over Biden in 2020.

---

Truth. Nominate Trump and lose. Why do the Dems want to run against Trump?

---

lol, the Dems want nothing to do with running against Trump..

---

Wrong


Trump is too old , too obnoxious and too self destructive .


Dems are extending these ridiculous January 6th hearings just praying that Trump is the Republican nominee.

---

you think all of this is help Trump to be the nominee..

Lord..

---

THINK PEOPLE


Dems know Trump's base loves him regardless of these Jan 6th hearings.

All this BS is geared toward INDEPENDENTS ........making them begin to suspect Trump really did attempt to overthrow the US government .

Repeat a lie long enough and weak minded people will begin to believe it .

Then Trump's consistent ability to self destruct will do the rest.


Trump is the ONE guy the Dem's can beat easily .

Amazing how some of you will not accept the fact that women, moderates and younger voters absolutely HATE the clown....policies be damned .

---

except that polling does not bear that out. He INCREASED his share of the female vote in 2020 and is winning with independents at the moment.

---

So we believe in polling now ….who knew ?

A. Folks don't like Biden .
B. But Biden will NOT be the Dem nominee.

C. Folks nationwide don't see or hear Trump much anymore . So he is ' polling better ' due his name recognition and the fact that gas was much cheaper during his presidency.

D. But once Trump gets a national audience again …the revulsion women, moderates and younger voters instinctively feel for him is going to come back in full force .

E. And against a younger , smoother Dem nominee Trump is going to look OLD . Americans across the political spectrum are fed up with OLD leadership .

F. So either nominate any of the younger , smarter , true Republicans out there….or get ready to discuss how the 2024 was 'stolen'.

Canada2017 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

ABC BEAR said:

---

Trump is going to win the nomination and the general in a landslide over Kamala. The real question is 'who will be Trump's VP.' This person will get 4 years OJT to prepare for 8 years of their own in the WH.

---

Sounds similar to the landslide win Trump was going to have over Biden in 2020.

---

Truth. Nominate Trump and lose. Why do the Dems want to run against Trump?

---

lol, the Dems want nothing to do with running against Trump..

---

Wrong


Trump is too old , too obnoxious and too self destructive .


Dems are extending these ridiculous January 6th hearings just praying that Trump is the Republican nominee.

---

you think all of this is help Trump to be the nominee..

Lord..

---

THINK PEOPLE


Dems know Trump's base loves him regardless of these Jan 6th hearings.

All this BS is geared toward INDEPENDENTS ........making them begin to suspect Trump really did attempt to overthrow the US government .

Repeat a lie long enough and weak minded people will begin to believe it .

Then Trump's consistent ability to self destruct will do the rest.


Trump is the ONE guy the Dem's can beat easily .

Amazing how some of you will not accept the fact that women, moderates and younger voters absolutely HATE the clown....policies be damned .

---

except that polling does not bear that out. He INCREASED his share of the female vote in 2020 and is winning with independents at the moment.

---

So we believe in polling now ….who knew ?

A. Folks don't like Biden .
B. But Biden will NOT be the Dem nominee.

C. Folks nationwide don't see or hear Trump much anymore . So he is ' polling better ' due his name recognition and the fact that gas was much cheaper during his presidency.

D. But once Trump gets a national audience again …the revulsion women, moderates and younger voters instinctively feel for him is going to come back in full force .

E. And against a younger , smoother Dem nominee Trump is going to look OLD . Americans across the political spectrum are fed up with OLD leadership .

F. So either nominate any of the younger , smarter , true Republicans out there….or get ready to discuss how the 2024 was 'stolen'.

---

If Biden doesn't win, Harris would be the odds on favorite to win the nomination. Yes, she is young and handsome. And I think she is somewhat more eloquent than we've been seeing. Yes, she might overperform her current numbers vs Trump. But the current numbers are the current numbers. One cannot simply disregard the current numbers because one finds Trump repulsive. LOTS of people find him repulsive. Lots of people also like him. A lot. No incumbent ever grew his numbers of the vote by more than Trump did in 2020. So history, data, polling tend to undermine D-F.

There will again be a time for smiling, gregarious, witty, winsome candidates.
Now is not that time.
No amount of youthful charm is going to stop the drag shows in elementary school.
People want someone to stop the madness, to hammer order out of chaos.
Pugnacity is going to trump popularity in the next election or three.

whiterock said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

ABC BEAR said:

---

Trump is going to win the nomination and the general in a landslide over Kamala. The real question is 'who will be Trump's VP.' This person will get 4 years OJT to prepare for 8 years of their own in the WH.

---

Sounds similar to the landslide win Trump was going to have over Biden in 2020.

---

Truth. Nominate Trump and lose. Why do the Dems want to run against Trump?

---

lol, the Dems want nothing to do with running against Trump..

---

Wrong


Trump is too old , too obnoxious and too self destructive .


Dems are extending these ridiculous January 6th hearings just praying that Trump is the Republican nominee.

---

you think all of this is help Trump to be the nominee..

Lord..

---

THINK PEOPLE


Dems know Trump's base loves him regardless of these Jan 6th hearings.

All this BS is geared toward INDEPENDENTS ........making them begin to suspect Trump really did attempt to overthrow the US government .

Repeat a lie long enough and weak minded people will begin to believe it .

Then Trump's consistent ability to self destruct will do the rest.


Trump is the ONE guy the Dem's can beat easily .

Amazing how some of you will not accept the fact that women, moderates and younger voters absolutely HATE the clown....policies be damned .

---

except that polling does not bear that out. He INCREASED his share of the female vote in 2020 and is winning with independents at the moment.

---

So we believe in polling now ….who knew ?

A. Folks don't like Biden .
B. But Biden will NOT be the Dem nominee.

C. Folks nationwide don't see or hear Trump much anymore . So he is ' polling better ' due his name recognition and the fact that gas was much cheaper during his presidency.

D. But once Trump gets a national audience again …the revulsion women, moderates and younger voters instinctively feel for him is going to come back in full force .

E. And against a younger , smoother Dem nominee Trump is going to look OLD . Americans across the political spectrum are fed up with OLD leadership .

F. So either nominate any of the younger , smarter , true Republicans out there….or get ready to discuss how the 2024 was 'stolen'.

---

If Biden doesn't win, Harris would be the odds on favorite to win the nomination. Yes, she is young and handsome. And I think she is somewhat more eloquent than we've been seeing. Yes, she might overperform her current numbers vs Trump. But the current numbers are the current numbers. One cannot simply disregard the current numbers because one finds Trump repulsive. LOTS of people find him repulsive. Lots of people also like him. A lot. No incumbent ever grew his numbers of the vote by more than Trump did in 2020. So history, data, polling tend to undermine D-F.

There will again be a time for smiling, gregarious, witty, winsome candidates.
Now is not that time.
No amount of youthful charm is going to stop the drag shows in elementary school.
People want someone to stop the madness, to hammer order out of chaos.
Pugnacity is going to trump popularity in the next election or three.

---

I agree with everything you say, but I still think Trump is political poison in a General Election. What you say may help DeSantis, Halley, or even Noem (sp?). All three have a history of "doing". For what you describe to end will require a "doer", not a thinker or moderator. Will Trump be able to "do", while in office in 2024? I do not think so because he will be fighting investigation after investigation, whistleblowers, leaks, and the media. I think he wants to do it, but I think he will be operationally hindered to the point of ineffectiveness.

I know DeSantis will "do" based on his history in Florida. I know Halley will "do" based on her history in SC and the UN. I know Noem will do based on her history in SD (although I think she is the weakest candidate).

whiterock said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

DeSantis.

I don't think there's much need to consider anyone else. The Trump supporters would flow to DeSantis in large enough numbers to make the rest of the race just a contest for the VP slot.

I.E. DeSantis is sitting on approx 25%. What percentage of Trump's approx 60% would DeSantis have to receive to win? Answer: a third. At 45% support in what will likely be a crowded field, there wouldn't be enough votes left for anyone else to mount a credible challenge. (remember, primaries are winner take all = no runoffs.)

So who here thinks more than 2/3rds of Trump supporters will flow to the likes of Pence, Haley, Pompeo, etc......

---

Gotta keep in mind primary vs general. Trump may be able to win primary, but general? He brings alot of bad blood, distrust and motivation against him holding office again.

This could end up being a classic "could he vs should he?" If Trump runs, you will see a motivated progressive and Democratic base and will the Independents go to Trump after 2020? Whether he is guilty of a crime or not, the turmoil he was involved with and his juvenile response is a negative to many, even if his loyalist don't want to admit it. The best you can say about his 2020 behavior is he acted poorly.

I still don't believe the January 6th Commission is legit or that Trump did anything to get him banned or prosecuted, but he did not handle the situation well and placed many in very tough situations. Poor Cassidy had to clean up the spaghetti before donning her cape and saving Democracy...

---

original question implied primary. And the primary will not be particularly competitive. If Trump runs, he wins. If he doesn't, DeSantis wins. The next most viable alternative scenario to that is that DeSantis continues to strengthen enough to knock off Trump. That will be on the order of single-digit probability, but that will give Oso, et al enough to dream of unicorns & pixie dust. I continue to suggest that the assembled experts here recognize that a Trump-DeSantis ticket is the mostly likely outcome of all, by an goodly margin.

When we look at the general, Trump is materially out-polling DeSantis, consistently outside the margin of error. He's also outpolling the two most likely Democrat candidates, by similar or greater margins.

None of that is saying what should/ought.
Saying what is and therefore what is most likely to be.

Trump is going to run stronger in the general than most here realize. He will be a juggernaut all the way thru to the WH. The legislative package Manchin just signed on to virtually guarantees it. You cannot continue to deficit spend while simultaneously raising taxes in the midst of an economy mired in historically bad stagflation and expect the economy to rebound your direction. In fact, the new green energy package is a recognition of that....Dems know their time is passing and they will spend the rest of it hammering thru their wish list, to make the GOP spend all its energy undoing it all over the 2022-2026 period. The war in Ukraine will drag on for at LEAST another 6-12 months, further stifling economic recovery around the world. So the US economy is going to get worse and worse and Dems will have nothing to run on. Even a new pandemic won't help them, given the way they mismanaged Covid. In the face of that, they will face a slashing populist with the right ideas who has exactly the kind of record of success needed to exploit the dynamics of the cycle..

2024 will better match Trump's skills than 2016.
Trump critics are completely misreading the landscape.
That's what happens when one lets their hopes lead their logic.

---

Is it worth the risk? Is it worth risking the National response not being a juggernaut? Is it worth the response being a run to the other side and giving the Dems four more years to implement this platform?

---

is it worth the risk of running a candidate that doesn't excite the majority of the party?

Trump is at 60% primary support. His next closest rival is at 25% and appeals to the same kind of voter. That should tell you all you need to know. But if you're going to run the numbers.....what percentage of each candidate's supporters will eagerly accept the other? Before you answer, remember Trump has +2x the number of primary voters that DeSantis has. I think the answer is pretty clear, and data on the Trump coalition backs it up - DeSantis has a more traditional conservative GOP voter more inclined to play team ball; Trump has brought a huge number of new voters (populists) into the party who are less inclined to play team ball. SImply put, at this point in time, Trump is going to bring a bigger base. Most importantly: he HAS it already. DeSantis does not, and it cannot be assumed that he will be able to maintain it. (Bird in Hand vs Two in Bush) You can expect a much higher percentage (of a smaller number) of DeSantis voters to swing behind Trump, and a much lower percentage (of a larger number) to swing behind DeSantis. That's why you see Trump net positives in high-80 percentages within the GOP. That's why you see all the GOP down-ballot candidates chasing his endorsement.

If we apply that calculation to the 1-12 other candidates who cumulatively appeal to about 15% of the base electorate, not one....NOT ONE.....has a prayer of assembling what the first two already have. double digit percentage points of the Trump base evaporate if anyone in this lot is on top of the ticket. Nobody NOBODY on the GOP side can bring as united and excited a base to the 2024 election.

You cannot win the middle if you can't energize your base.
You cannot win the middle if you can't energize your base.
How on earth does one propose to inspire a moderate (see the contradiction in terms?) if one cannot inspire one's own base?

Your questions are the logic of peace & prosperity, of centrists, of winning in the middle. That's the safe way to plan to win, in normal politics. Coalitions aren't going to change much, and subtle swings in the middle can be decisive. But we not in that place. We are in regime politics amidst a once-in-a-lifetime realignment of the parties at a time of stagflation, societal collapse, and global war that will by this fall be firing up regime instability throughout much of the 3rd world dependent on imported food. The center has failed. There is no middle ground. And Democrats have nothing to campaign for....all the solutions to all the problems involve repudiation of their own agenda, which is responsible for so much of the madness.

Trump will be a better fit for 2024 than he was in 2016. How do we test that? Watch the mid-terms and see how his endorsements perform. He was 98% successful in the primaries. Will we overperform, or underperform in the general? Smart money would be on the former.

---

You raise some good points. Here are some of the issues as I see it with Trump.

An excited base still lost Trump the election by 7 million votes in 2020. Thus, even when his sycophants turned out in droves to vote for him, he still got creamed. Will that change in 2024, with the Democrats and media galvanized against him? Will he be popular with independents with the expected boorish behavior that will accompany his revenge tour? If he could shut his mouth and control his worst impulses, perhaps, but as we well know, he cannot do that.

Second, while he may poll favorably against Biden, how will he poll against a much more polished and energetic candidate - say a Gavin Newsom? I suspect not nearly as well. Biden is not popular right now, which is why we've seen favorable polls in a head to head match up with Trump. Will that be the case in 2024, when it's someone like Newsom running against him? Very doubtful.

As I said, you raise really good points, but there is much time between now and 2024. It is important to note that several of Trump's endorsements have not performed well as of late. I don't think he will have anything to do with the midterms. Biden's ineptness is what will turn out the votes for Republicans.

whiterock said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

ABC BEAR said:

---

Trump is going to win the nomination and the general in a landslide over Kamala. The real question is 'who will be Trump's VP.' This person will get 4 years OJT to prepare for 8 years of their own in the WH.

---

Sounds similar to the landslide win Trump was going to have over Biden in 2020.

---

Truth. Nominate Trump and lose. Why do the Dems want to run against Trump?

---

lol, the Dems want nothing to do with running against Trump..

---

Wrong


Trump is too old , too obnoxious and too self destructive .


Dems are extending these ridiculous January 6th hearings just praying that Trump is the Republican nominee.

---

you think all of this is help Trump to be the nominee..

Lord..

---

THINK PEOPLE


Dems know Trump's base loves him regardless of these Jan 6th hearings.

All this BS is geared toward INDEPENDENTS ........making them begin to suspect Trump really did attempt to overthrow the US government .

Repeat a lie long enough and weak minded people will begin to believe it .

Then Trump's consistent ability to self destruct will do the rest.


Trump is the ONE guy the Dem's can beat easily .

Amazing how some of you will not accept the fact that women, moderates and younger voters absolutely HATE the clown....policies be damned .

---

except that polling does not bear that out. He INCREASED his share of the female vote in 2020 and is winning with independents at the moment.

---

So we believe in polling now ….who knew ?

A. Folks don't like Biden .
B. But Biden will NOT be the Dem nominee.

C. Folks nationwide don't see or hear Trump much anymore . So he is ' polling better ' due his name recognition and the fact that gas was much cheaper during his presidency.

D. But once Trump gets a national audience again …the revulsion women, moderates and younger voters instinctively feel for him is going to come back in full force .

E. And against a younger , smoother Dem nominee Trump is going to look OLD . Americans across the political spectrum are fed up with OLD leadership .

F. So either nominate any of the younger , smarter , true Republicans out there….or get ready to discuss how the 2024 was 'stolen'.

---

No incumbent ever grew his numbers of the vote by more than Trump did in 2020. So history, data, polling tend to undermine D-F.

---

And yet, he still got soundly beaten. I am just not sure we should expect 2024 to be any different.

Canada2017 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

ABC BEAR said:

---

Trump is going to win the nomination and the general in a landslide over Kamala. The real question is 'who will be Trump's VP.' This person will get 4 years OJT to prepare for 8 years of their own in the WH.

---

Sounds similar to the landslide win Trump was going to have over Biden in 2020.

---

Truth. Nominate Trump and lose. Why do the Dems want to run against Trump?

---

lol, the Dems want nothing to do with running against Trump..

---

Wrong


Trump is too old , too obnoxious and too self destructive .


Dems are extending these ridiculous January 6th hearings just praying that Trump is the Republican nominee.

---

you think all of this is help Trump to be the nominee..

Lord..

---

THINK PEOPLE


Dems know Trump's base loves him regardless of these Jan 6th hearings.

All this BS is geared toward INDEPENDENTS ........making them begin to suspect Trump really did attempt to overthrow the US government .

Repeat a lie long enough and weak minded people will begin to believe it .

Then Trump's consistent ability to self destruct will do the rest.


Trump is the ONE guy the Dem's can beat easily .

Amazing how some of you will not accept the fact that women, moderates and younger voters absolutely HATE the clown....policies be damned .

---

except that polling does not bear that out. He INCREASED his share of the female vote in 2020 and is winning with independents at the moment.

---

So we believe in polling now ….who knew ?

A. Folks don't like Biden .
B. But Biden will NOT be the Dem nominee.

C. Folks nationwide don't see or hear Trump much anymore . So he is ' polling better ' due his name recognition and the fact that gas was much cheaper during his presidency.

D. But once Trump gets a national audience again …the revulsion women, moderates and younger voters instinctively feel for him is going to come back in full force .

E. And against a younger , smoother Dem nominee Trump is going to look OLD . Americans across the political spectrum are fed up with OLD leadership .

F. So either nominate any of the younger , smarter , true Republicans out there….or get ready to discuss how the 2024 was 'stolen'.

---

I am starting to think that "E" is going to be in play in 2024. Not only is it polling that people are sick of "old", I am hearing it in the general discussions (which when combined with polling makes it more believable).


I do think both the Dems and the GOP will need to go younger and both sides with people that they think WILL are able to execute change, not just talk about it.

I think DeSantis is the top GOP choice, but will he run?

For the Dems, I think Cooper is the best shot. But, I think it will be Buttigieg. I hope it is Widmer.

RMF5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

Truth. Nominate Trump and lose. Why do the Dems want to run against Trump?

---

---

lol, the Dems want nothing to do with running against Trump..

---

Wrong


Trump is too old , too obnoxious and too self destructive .


Dems are extending these ridiculous January 6th hearings just praying that Trump is the Republican nominee.

---

you think all of this is help Trump to be the nominee..

Lord..

---

THINK PEOPLE


Dems know Trump's base loves him regardless of these Jan 6th hearings.

All this BS is geared toward INDEPENDENTS ........making them begin to suspect Trump really did attempt to overthrow the US government .

Repeat a lie long enough and weak minded people will begin to believe it .

Then Trump's consistent ability to self destruct will do the rest.


Trump is the ONE guy the Dem's can beat easily .

Amazing how some of you will not accept the fact that women, moderates and younger voters absolutely HATE the clown....policies be damned .

---

except that polling does not bear that out. He INCREASED his share of the female vote in 2020 and is winning with independents at the moment.

---

So we believe in polling now ….who knew ?

A. Folks don't like Biden .
B. But Biden will NOT be the Dem nominee.

C. Folks nationwide don't see or hear Trump much anymore . So he is ' polling better ' due his name recognition and the fact that gas was much cheaper during his presidency.

D. But once Trump gets a national audience again …the revulsion women, moderates and younger voters instinctively feel for him is going to come back in full force .

E. And against a younger , smoother Dem nominee Trump is going to look OLD . Americans across the political spectrum are fed up with OLD leadership .

F. So either nominate any of the younger , smarter , true Republicans out there….or get ready to discuss how the 2024 was 'stolen'.

---

If Biden doesn't win, Harris would be the odds on favorite to win the nomination. Yes, she is young and handsome. And I think she is somewhat more eloquent than we've been seeing. Yes, she might overperform her current numbers vs Trump. But the current numbers are the current numbers. One cannot simply disregard the current numbers because one finds Trump repulsive. LOTS of people find him repulsive. Lots of people also like him. A lot. No incumbent ever grew his numbers of the vote by more than Trump did in 2020. So history, data, polling tend to undermine D-F.

There will again be a time for smiling, gregarious, witty, winsome candidates.
Now is not that time.
No amount of youthful charm is going to stop the drag shows in elementary school.
People want someone to stop the madness, to hammer order out of chaos.
Pugnacity is going to trump popularity in the next election or three.

---

I agree with everything you say, but I still think Trump is political poison in a General Election. What you say may help DeSantis, Halley, or even Noem (sp?). All three have a history of "doing". For what you describe to end will require a "doer", not a thinker or moderator. Will Trump be able to "do", while in office in 2024? I do not think so because he will be fighting investigation after investigation, whistleblowers, leaks, and the media. I think he wants to do it, but I think he will be operationally hindered to the point of ineffectiveness.

I know DeSantis will "do" based on his history in Florida. I know Halley will "do" based on her history in SC and the UN. I know Noem will do based on her history in SD (although I think she is the weakest candidate).

---

agree on DeSantis. Haley is a mixed bag. She took a real pummeling as GOV of SC, really nasty dirt. So she's plenty tough and would be a fine POTUS. But she's also been too ambivalent on Trump to build a base anywhere approaching what DeSantis has done. Much of that can be said for Noem. She stubbed her toes on a Title IX and trans in sports, talked a good game but refused the battle in 11th hour. I think she got (arguably good) legal advice that she had picked the wrong fight - state of SD vs federal DOE was an expensive potential arse-kicking for her. But she can overcome that far easier than her central problem - gov of a very small state with a concomitant small fundraising base. That makes her longest of longshots - the classic "looked great in IA but faded out before FL."

Much of that could have been said about WJC. Granted, Trump is no WJC on the magnetic personality scale. But he is every bit a peer on toughness and chutzpah. Moreover, there is a potential (emphasis on "potential") non-sequitur on that part in bold. All those attacks could empowee rather than hinder him. To the extent that he can frame it as "establishment is out to get me," it could play well in a cycle where reforming/destroying establishments are something closer to driving factors rather than artificial constructs.

the hole in the analysis of Trump's negatives is a faulty assumption that all election cycles are the same. They are not. Each is driven by different issues. More often, they are driven by questions of competence to address normal problems of governance - a "change election." Every once in a while, the are driven by massive demand for change, outrage at failure of social contract to do basic things that social contract is supposed to do...a "wave election." We are clearly in the latter dynamic now, and the horizon contains storm clouds.

A guy who has clearly been victimized by establishments is going to play better than most think to an electorate which is clearly getting victimized by establishments who are doubling and tripling down on masks and vaccines and taxing and spending and double mastectomies for unhappy 12 year old girls and $65k electric cars as a solution for joe-sixpack not being able to afford to take a vacation this year and small businesses getting ransacked while the DA virtue postures about systemic oppression....(I could go on, but you get the picture).

Freedom is all about a balance between chaos and order. Right now, the chaos has broken the scale. Voters are not going to reward the people who are so clearly responsible for that. They might actually chose to punish them by giving a new administration a mandate to deconstruct it all.

whiterock said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

Truth. Nominate Trump and lose. Why do the Dems want to run against Trump?

---

---

lol, the Dems want nothing to do with running against Trump..

---

Wrong


Trump is too old , too obnoxious and too self destructive .


Dems are extending these ridiculous January 6th hearings just praying that Trump is the Republican nominee.

---

you think all of this is help Trump to be the nominee..

Lord..

---

THINK PEOPLE


Dems know Trump's base loves him regardless of these Jan 6th hearings.

All this BS is geared toward INDEPENDENTS ........making them begin to suspect Trump really did attempt to overthrow the US government .

Repeat a lie long enough and weak minded people will begin to believe it .

Then Trump's consistent ability to self destruct will do the rest.


Trump is the ONE guy the Dem's can beat easily .

Amazing how some of you will not accept the fact that women, moderates and younger voters absolutely HATE the clown....policies be damned .

---

except that polling does not bear that out. He INCREASED his share of the female vote in 2020 and is winning with independents at the moment.

---

So we believe in polling now ….who knew ?

A. Folks don't like Biden .
B. But Biden will NOT be the Dem nominee.

C. Folks nationwide don't see or hear Trump much anymore . So he is ' polling better ' due his name recognition and the fact that gas was much cheaper during his presidency.

D. But once Trump gets a national audience again …the revulsion women, moderates and younger voters instinctively feel for him is going to come back in full force .

E. And against a younger , smoother Dem nominee Trump is going to look OLD . Americans across the political spectrum are fed up with OLD leadership .

F. So either nominate any of the younger , smarter , true Republicans out there….or get ready to discuss how the 2024 was 'stolen'.

---

If Biden doesn't win, Harris would be the odds on favorite to win the nomination. Yes, she is young and handsome. And I think she is somewhat more eloquent than we've been seeing. Yes, she might overperform her current numbers vs Trump. But the current numbers are the current numbers. One cannot simply disregard the current numbers because one finds Trump repulsive. LOTS of people find him repulsive. Lots of people also like him. A lot. No incumbent ever grew his numbers of the vote by more than Trump did in 2020. So history, data, polling tend to undermine D-F.

There will again be a time for smiling, gregarious, witty, winsome candidates.
Now is not that time.
No amount of youthful charm is going to stop the drag shows in elementary school.
People want someone to stop the madness, to hammer order out of chaos.
Pugnacity is going to trump popularity in the next election or three.

---

I agree with everything you say, but I still think Trump is political poison in a General Election. What you say may help DeSantis, Halley, or even Noem (sp?). All three have a history of "doing". For what you describe to end will require a "doer", not a thinker or moderator. Will Trump be able to "do", while in office in 2024? I do not think so because he will be fighting investigation after investigation, whistleblowers, leaks, and the media. I think he wants to do it, but I think he will be operationally hindered to the point of ineffectiveness.

I know DeSantis will "do" based on his history in Florida. I know Halley will "do" based on her history in SC and the UN. I know Noem will do based on her history in SD (although I think she is the weakest candidate).

---

agree on DeSantis. Haley is a mixed bag. She took a real pummeling as GOV of SC, really nasty dirt. So she's plenty tough and would be a fine POTUS. But she's also been too ambivalent on Trump to build a base anywhere approaching what DeSantis has done. Much of that can be said for Noem. She stubbed her toes on a Title IX and trans in sports, talked a good game but refused the battle in 11th hour. I think she got (arguably good) legal advice that she had picked the wrong fight - state of SD vs federal DOE was an expensive potential arse-kicking for her. But she can overcome that far easier than her central problem - gov of a very small state with a concomitant small fundraising base. That makes her longest of longshots - the classic "looked great in IA but faded out before FL."

Much of that could have been said about WJC. Granted, Trump is no WJC on the magnetic personality scale. But he is every bit a peer on toughness and chutzpah. Moreover, there is a potential (emphasis on "potential") non-sequitur on that part in bold. All those attacks could empowee rather than hinder him. To the extent that he can frame it as "establishment is out to get me," it could play well in a cycle where reforming/destroying establishments are something closer to driving factors rather than artificial constructs.

the hole in the analysis of Trump's negatives is a faulty assumption that all election cycles are the same. They are not. Each is driven by different issues. More often, they are driven by questions of competence to address normal problems of governance - a "change election." Every once in a while, the are driven by massive demand for change, outrage at failure of social contract to do basic things that social contract is supposed to do...a "wave election." We are clearly in the latter dynamic now, and the horizon contains storm clouds.

A guy who has clearly been victimized by establishments is going to play better than most think to an electorate which is clearly getting victimized by establishments who are doubling and tripling down on masks and vaccines and taxing and spending and double mastectomies for unhappy 12 year old girls and $65k electric cars as a solution for joe-sixpack not being able to afford to take a vacation this year and small businesses getting ransacked while the DA virtue postures about systemic oppression....(I could go on, but you get the picture).

Freedom is all about a balance between chaos and order. Right now, the chaos has broken the scale. Voters are not going to reward the people who are so clearly responsible for that. They might actually chose to punish them by giving a new administration a mandate to deconstruct it all.

---

in fairness to Haley, her portfolio in the Trump admin was not conducive to building domestic coalitions. It did broaden her resume so that she now has serious foreign policy chops. but for the purposes of a primary, she's worse off now than she was when she left the SC Gov office.

RMF5630 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

ABC BEAR said:

---

Trump is going to win the nomination and the general in a landslide over Kamala. The real question is 'who will be Trump's VP.' This person will get 4 years OJT to prepare for 8 years of their own in the WH.

---

Sounds similar to the landslide win Trump was going to have over Biden in 2020.

---

Truth. Nominate Trump and lose. Why do the Dems want to run against Trump?

---

lol, the Dems want nothing to do with running against Trump..

---

Wrong


Trump is too old , too obnoxious and too self destructive .


Dems are extending these ridiculous January 6th hearings just praying that Trump is the Republican nominee.

---

you think all of this is help Trump to be the nominee..

Lord..

---

THINK PEOPLE


Dems know Trump's base loves him regardless of these Jan 6th hearings.

All this BS is geared toward INDEPENDENTS ........making them begin to suspect Trump really did attempt to overthrow the US government .

Repeat a lie long enough and weak minded people will begin to believe it .

Then Trump's consistent ability to self destruct will do the rest.


Trump is the ONE guy the Dem's can beat easily .

Amazing how some of you will not accept the fact that women, moderates and younger voters absolutely HATE the clown....policies be damned .

---

except that polling does not bear that out. He INCREASED his share of the female vote in 2020 and is winning with independents at the moment.

---

So we believe in polling now ….who knew ?

A. Folks don't like Biden .
B. But Biden will NOT be the Dem nominee.

C. Folks nationwide don't see or hear Trump much anymore . So he is ' polling better ' due his name recognition and the fact that gas was much cheaper during his presidency.

D. But once Trump gets a national audience again …the revulsion women, moderates and younger voters instinctively feel for him is going to come back in full force .

E. And against a younger , smoother Dem nominee Trump is going to look OLD . Americans across the political spectrum are fed up with OLD leadership .

F. So either nominate any of the younger , smarter , true Republicans out there….or get ready to discuss how the 2024 was 'stolen'.

---

I am starting to think that "E" is going to be in play in 2024. Not only is it polling that people are sick of "old", I am hearing it in the general discussions (which when combined with polling makes it more believable).


I do think both the Dems and the GOP will need to go younger and both sides with people that they think WILL are able to execute change, not just talk about it.

I think DeSantis is the top GOP choice, but will he run?

For the Dems, I think Cooper is the best shot. But, I think it will be Buttigieg. I hope it is Widmer.

---

Completely disagree on Cooper. You're looking at it too much like a rational Republican. He doesn't have a prayer in a Dem primary.

The one to fear is Polis. He's actually done a good job in CO and knows how to push crazy without sounding crazy. Will be surprised if he's not on the ticket somewhere.

TRUMP is the only answer and he will win bigly. If we listened to what women and moderates had to say we'd all be disarmed, eating bugs and having to set our ac to 80 degress at night.

Desantis takes over in 28 after Trump comes in and fires everyone in every department.

muddybrazos said:

---

TRUMP is the only answer and he will win bigly. If we listened to what women and moderates had to say we'd all be disarmed, eating bugs and having to set our ac to 80 degress at night.

Desantis takes over in 28 after Trump comes in and fires everyone in every department.

---

Trump-DeSantis is the mostly likely outcome of the 2024 GOP primary - the strongest ticket the party has put up since Reagan.

Most of the Trump critics will sign on for the 2028 angle....."we can survive 4 more years of Trump to get to an 8yr term of DeSantis."

I mean, the two guys combined have approx 85% support in a GOP primary......classic unity ticket.

whiterock said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

Truth. Nominate Trump and lose. Why do the Dems want to run against Trump?

---

---

lol, the Dems want nothing to do with running against Trump..

---

Wrong


Trump is too old , too obnoxious and too self destructive .


Dems are extending these ridiculous January 6th hearings just praying that Trump is the Republican nominee.

---

you think all of this is help Trump to be the nominee..

Lord..

---

THINK PEOPLE


Dems know Trump's base loves him regardless of these Jan 6th hearings.

All this BS is geared toward INDEPENDENTS ........making them begin to suspect Trump really did attempt to overthrow the US government .

Repeat a lie long enough and weak minded people will begin to believe it .

Then Trump's consistent ability to self destruct will do the rest.


Trump is the ONE guy the Dem's can beat easily .

Amazing how some of you will not accept the fact that women, moderates and younger voters absolutely HATE the clown....policies be damned .

---

except that polling does not bear that out. He INCREASED his share of the female vote in 2020 and is winning with independents at the moment.

---

So we believe in polling now ….who knew ?

A. Folks don't like Biden .
B. But Biden will NOT be the Dem nominee.

C. Folks nationwide don't see or hear Trump much anymore . So he is ' polling better ' due his name recognition and the fact that gas was much cheaper during his presidency.

D. But once Trump gets a national audience again …the revulsion women, moderates and younger voters instinctively feel for him is going to come back in full force .

E. And against a younger , smoother Dem nominee Trump is going to look OLD . Americans across the political spectrum are fed up with OLD leadership .

F. So either nominate any of the younger , smarter , true Republicans out there….or get ready to discuss how the 2024 was 'stolen'.

---

If Biden doesn't win, Harris would be the odds on favorite to win the nomination. Yes, she is young and handsome. And I think she is somewhat more eloquent than we've been seeing. Yes, she might overperform her current numbers vs Trump. But the current numbers are the current numbers. One cannot simply disregard the current numbers because one finds Trump repulsive. LOTS of people find him repulsive. Lots of people also like him. A lot. No incumbent ever grew his numbers of the vote by more than Trump did in 2020. So history, data, polling tend to undermine D-F.

There will again be a time for smiling, gregarious, witty, winsome candidates.
Now is not that time.
No amount of youthful charm is going to stop the drag shows in elementary school.
People want someone to stop the madness, to hammer order out of chaos.
Pugnacity is going to trump popularity in the next election or three.

---

I agree with everything you say, but I still think Trump is political poison in a General Election. What you say may help DeSantis, Halley, or even Noem (sp?). All three have a history of "doing". For what you describe to end will require a "doer", not a thinker or moderator. Will Trump be able to "do", while in office in 2024? I do not think so because he will be fighting investigation after investigation, whistleblowers, leaks, and the media. I think he wants to do it, but I think he will be operationally hindered to the point of ineffectiveness.

I know DeSantis will "do" based on his history in Florida. I know Halley will "do" based on her history in SC and the UN. I know Noem will do based on her history in SD (although I think she is the weakest candidate).

---

agree on DeSantis. Haley is a mixed bag. She took a real pummeling as GOV of SC, really nasty dirt. So she's plenty tough and would be a fine POTUS. But she's also been too ambivalent on Trump to build a base anywhere approaching what DeSantis has done. Much of that can be said for Noem. She stubbed her toes on a Title IX and trans in sports, talked a good game but refused the battle in 11th hour. I think she got (arguably good) legal advice that she had picked the wrong fight - state of SD vs federal DOE was an expensive potential arse-kicking for her. But she can overcome that far easier than her central problem - gov of a very small state with a concomitant small fundraising base. That makes her longest of longshots - the classic "looked great in IA but faded out before FL."

Much of that could have been said about WJC. Granted, Trump is no WJC on the magnetic personality scale. But he is every bit a peer on toughness and chutzpah. Moreover, there is a potential (emphasis on "potential") non-sequitur on that part in bold. All those attacks could empowee rather than hinder him. To the extent that he can frame it as "establishment is out to get me," it could play well in a cycle where reforming/destroying establishments are something closer to driving factors rather than artificial constructs.

the hole in the analysis of Trump's negatives is a faulty assumption that all election cycles are the same. They are not. Each is driven by different issues. More often, they are driven by questions of competence to address normal problems of governance - a "change election." Every once in a while, the are driven by massive demand for change, outrage at failure of social contract to do basic things that social contract is supposed to do...a "wave election." We are clearly in the latter dynamic now, and the horizon contains storm clouds.

A guy who has clearly been victimized by establishments is going to play better than most think to an electorate which is clearly getting victimized by establishments who are doubling and tripling down on masks and vaccines and taxing and spending and double mastectomies for unhappy 12 year old girls and $65k electric cars as a solution for joe-sixpack not being able to afford to take a vacation this year and small businesses getting ransacked while the DA virtue postures about systemic oppression....(I could go on, but you get the picture).

Freedom is all about a balance between chaos and order. Right now, the chaos has broken the scale. Voters are not going to reward the people who are so clearly responsible for that. They might actually chose to punish them by giving a new administration a mandate to deconstruct it all.

---

We are not far off at all. I was listing "doers", candidates with a reputation for taking on tough issues.

GOP is DeSantis's if he wants it, that will be the question. Does he think 24 is the right time? Halley I think would make a nice VP or Pompeo as VP.

I think you are right, each election cycle is different. 2016 worked in Trump's favor. 2020 worked against him. 2024, I think will be 2020 on steroids if Trump runs.

Canada2017: "Silly security guard."

There you go again, showing the limits of your reading comprehension.

Go suck a lemon, hater.

whiterock said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

ABC BEAR said:

---

Trump is going to win the nomination and the general in a landslide over Kamala. The real question is 'who will be Trump's VP.' This person will get 4 years OJT to prepare for 8 years of their own in the WH.

---

Sounds similar to the landslide win Trump was going to have over Biden in 2020.

---

Truth. Nominate Trump and lose. Why do the Dems want to run against Trump?

---

lol, the Dems want nothing to do with running against Trump..

---

Wrong


Trump is too old , too obnoxious and too self destructive .


Dems are extending these ridiculous January 6th hearings just praying that Trump is the Republican nominee.

---

you think all of this is help Trump to be the nominee..

Lord..

---

THINK PEOPLE


Dems know Trump's base loves him regardless of these Jan 6th hearings.

All this BS is geared toward INDEPENDENTS ........making them begin to suspect Trump really did attempt to overthrow the US government .

Repeat a lie long enough and weak minded people will begin to believe it .

Then Trump's consistent ability to self destruct will do the rest.


Trump is the ONE guy the Dem's can beat easily .

Amazing how some of you will not accept the fact that women, moderates and younger voters absolutely HATE the clown....policies be damned .

---

except that polling does not bear that out. He INCREASED his share of the female vote in 2020 and is winning with independents at the moment.

---

So we believe in polling now ….who knew ?

A. Folks don't like Biden .
B. But Biden will NOT be the Dem nominee.

C. Folks nationwide don't see or hear Trump much anymore . So he is ' polling better ' due his name recognition and the fact that gas was much cheaper during his presidency.

D. But once Trump gets a national audience again …the revulsion women, moderates and younger voters instinctively feel for him is going to come back in full force .

E. And against a younger , smoother Dem nominee Trump is going to look OLD . Americans across the political spectrum are fed up with OLD leadership .

F. So either nominate any of the younger , smarter , true Republicans out there….or get ready to discuss how the 2024 was 'stolen'.

---

I am starting to think that "E" is going to be in play in 2024. Not only is it polling that people are sick of "old", I am hearing it in the general discussions (which when combined with polling makes it more believable).


I do think both the Dems and the GOP will need to go younger and both sides with people that they think WILL are able to execute change, not just talk about it.

I think DeSantis is the top GOP choice, but will he run?

For the Dems, I think Cooper is the best shot. But, I think it will be Buttigieg. I hope it is Widmer.

---

The one to fear is Polis. He's actually done a good job in CO and knows how to push crazy without sounding crazy.

---

Polis has NOT done a 'good' job in Colorado ......not in the slightest.

He is a super liberal and a sick ******* to boot.

Polis is poison to the energy industry, Christians and property owners.

Canada2017 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

ABC BEAR said:

---

Trump is going to win the nomination and the general in a landslide over Kamala. The real question is 'who will be Trump's VP.' This person will get 4 years OJT to prepare for 8 years of their own in the WH.

---

Sounds similar to the landslide win Trump was going to have over Biden in 2020.

---

Truth. Nominate Trump and lose. Why do the Dems want to run against Trump?

---

lol, the Dems want nothing to do with running against Trump..

---

Wrong


Trump is too old , too obnoxious and too self destructive .


Dems are extending these ridiculous January 6th hearings just praying that Trump is the Republican nominee.

---

you think all of this is help Trump to be the nominee..

Lord..

---

THINK PEOPLE


Dems know Trump's base loves him regardless of these Jan 6th hearings.

All this BS is geared toward INDEPENDENTS ........making them begin to suspect Trump really did attempt to overthrow the US government .

Repeat a lie long enough and weak minded people will begin to believe it .

Then Trump's consistent ability to self destruct will do the rest.


Trump is the ONE guy the Dem's can beat easily .

Amazing how some of you will not accept the fact that women, moderates and younger voters absolutely HATE the clown....policies be damned .

---

except that polling does not bear that out. He INCREASED his share of the female vote in 2020 and is winning with independents at the moment.

---

So we believe in polling now ….who knew ?

A. Folks don't like Biden .
B. But Biden will NOT be the Dem nominee.

C. Folks nationwide don't see or hear Trump much anymore . So he is ' polling better ' due his name recognition and the fact that gas was much cheaper during his presidency.

D. But once Trump gets a national audience again …the revulsion women, moderates and younger voters instinctively feel for him is going to come back in full force .

E. And against a younger , smoother Dem nominee Trump is going to look OLD . Americans across the political spectrum are fed up with OLD leadership .

F. So either nominate any of the younger , smarter , true Republicans out there….or get ready to discuss how the 2024 was 'stolen'.

---

OK, let's play:

From the guy who demands we THINK but he won't:

"A. Folks don't like Biden ."

There we agree, and applying a little Occam's Razor, that more than anything else means 2020 won't happen again.


"B. But Biden will NOT be the Dem nominee."

Ah, but there the Democrats have a big problem. First, whether or not the Donks replace Joe B, the Democrats as a party pushed hard for all those things that ruined the economy, shut down the pipelines and wells and generally caused misery for Americans. Changing the mascot won't change that impression.

Second, historically it's bad juju for a party with an incumbent President not to support him. Every time the Democrats have abandoned a President in hopes of presenting someone more likable, they lost the White House. That's because - I think - the President has a residual level of support which is not transferable to another candidate, even from the same party.

Third, the Democrats in recent history have only won when they had a well-prepared candidate ready for the race. Biden, despite his poor primary showing, was the Democrats' preferred candidate as early as 2018, just as Obama was waiting in the wings as early as 2006. The last surprise candidate for the Democrats to win was Bill Clinton in 1992, who declared just 15 months before the '92 election and was only a the front-runner after Super Tuesday. But there is no one in the Democrats' potential field with the resume and charisma of Bill Clinton.


"C. Folks nationwide don't see or hear Trump much anymore . So he is ' polling better ' due his name recognition and the fact that gas was much cheaper during his presidency."

Flat wrong. The Democrats have made sure no one forgot Trump. Aside from the show trial hearings of the "Jan 6" committee, Biden tried several times to blame his blunders on Trump, and the media has made him a regular target for attacks. So no, no one has forgotten Trump.

The plain fact is that for all the smearing of Trump, his policies were so much better than Biden's that voters make it clear they prefer Trump. That is not to say Trump would automatically win in 2024, a lot of factors go into that election and it's a long way off yet, but for now the only honest judgment would be that Trump would curb-stomp Biden if the 2024 election were held today, and it was a choice between those two candidates.


"D. But once Trump gets a national audience again …the revulsion women, moderates and younger voters instinctively feel for him is going to come back in full force ."

False. The media has done its worst, and any damage done to Trump was done before the 2020 election. The plain fact is that "women, moderates and younger voters" also have bills to pay, and historically vote their pocketbooks and wallets. This time is simply following that lead.



"E. And against a younger , smoother Dem nominee Trump is going to look OLD . Americans across the political spectrum are fed up with OLD leadership ."

And just where do you expect the Donks to find this 'younger, smoother' leader to save them from their Bidenalypse? The DNC has been trending older and more Party-Loyal for years. Gabbard and Mancin, the closest thing to reasonable people among the Democrats, are PNG among DNC elite. The House is run by Pelosi, the Senate by Schumer, and the White House by Geritol. And there is no evidence whatsoever that the Democrats have seen the light and are working to remedy this age issue.




"F. So either nominate any of the younger , smarter , true Republicans out there….or get ready to discuss how the 2024 was 'stolen'."

Grow the F up and suck a lemon. We don't know who the Republicans will nominate in 2024 yet, but you really need to come to grips that Trump has a viable candidacy, and if we don't nominate Trump we will need to nominate someone with very similar policies and just a strong a spine.

Oldbear83 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

ABC BEAR said:

---

Trump is going to win the nomination and the general in a landslide over Kamala. The real question is 'who will be Trump's VP.' This person will get 4 years OJT to prepare for 8 years of their own in the WH.

---

Sounds similar to the landslide win Trump was going to have over Biden in 2020.

---

Truth. Nominate Trump and lose. Why do the Dems want to run against Trump?

---

lol, the Dems want nothing to do with running against Trump..

---

Wrong


Trump is too old , too obnoxious and too self destructive .


Dems are extending these ridiculous January 6th hearings just praying that Trump is the Republican nominee.

---

you think all of this is help Trump to be the nominee..

Lord..

---

THINK PEOPLE


Dems know Trump's base loves him regardless of these Jan 6th hearings.

All this BS is geared toward INDEPENDENTS ........making them begin to suspect Trump really did attempt to overthrow the US government .

Repeat a lie long enough and weak minded people will begin to believe it .

Then Trump's consistent ability to self destruct will do the rest.


Trump is the ONE guy the Dem's can beat easily .

Amazing how some of you will not accept the fact that women, moderates and younger voters absolutely HATE the clown....policies be damned .

---

except that polling does not bear that out. He INCREASED his share of the female vote in 2020 and is winning with independents at the moment.

---

So we believe in polling now ….who knew ?

A. Folks don't like Biden .
B. But Biden will NOT be the Dem nominee.

C. Folks nationwide don't see or hear Trump much anymore . So he is ' polling better ' due his name recognition and the fact that gas was much cheaper during his presidency.

D. But once Trump gets a national audience again …the revulsion women, moderates and younger voters instinctively feel for him is going to come back in full force .

E. And against a younger , smoother Dem nominee Trump is going to look OLD . Americans across the political spectrum are fed up with OLD leadership .

F. So either nominate any of the younger , smarter , true Republicans out there….or get ready to discuss how the 2024 was 'stolen'.

---

OK, let's play:

From the guy who demands we THINK but he won't:

"A. Folks don't like Biden ."

There we agree, and applying a little Occam's Razor, that more than anything else means 2020 won't happen again.


"B. But Biden will NOT be the Dem nominee."

Ah, but there the Democrats have a big problem. First, whether or not the Donks replace Joe B, the Democrats as a party pushed hard for all those things that ruined the economy, shut down the pipelines and wells and generally caused misery for Americans. Changing the mascot won't change that impression.

Second, historically it's bad juju for a party with an incumbent President not to support him. Every time the Democrats have abandoned a President in hopes of presenting someone more likable, they lost the White House. That's because - I think - the President has a residual level of support which is not transferable to another candidate, even from the same party.

Third, the Democrats in recent history have only won when they had a well-prepared candidate ready for the race. Biden, despite his poor primary showing, was the Democrats' preferred candidate as early as 2018, just as Obama was waiting in the wings as early as 2006. The last surprise candidate for the Democrats to win was Bill Clinton in 1992, who declared just 15 months before the '92 election and was only a the front-runner after Super Tuesday. But there is no one in the Democrats' potential field with the resume and charisma of Bill Clinton.


"C. Folks nationwide don't see or hear Trump much anymore . So he is ' polling better ' due his name recognition and the fact that gas was much cheaper during his presidency."

Flat wrong. The Democrats have made sure no one forgot Trump. Aside from the show trial hearings of the "Jan 6" committee, Biden tried several times to blame his blunders on Trump, and the media has made him a regular target for attacks. So no, no one has forgotten Trump.

The plain fact is that for all the smearing of Trump, his policies were so much better than Biden's that voters make it clear they prefer Trump. That is not to say Trump would automatically win in 2024, a lot of factors go into that election and it's a long way off yet, but for now the only honest judgment would be that Trump would curb-stomp Biden if the 2024 election were held today, and it was a choice between those two candidates.


"D. But once Trump gets a national audience again …the revulsion women, moderates and younger voters instinctively feel for him is going to come back in full force ."

False. The media has done its worst, and any damage done to Trump was done before the 2020 election. The plain fact is that "women, moderates and younger voters" also have bills to pay, and historically vote their pocketbooks and wallets. This time is simply following that lead.



"E. And against a younger , smoother Dem nominee Trump is going to look OLD . Americans across the political spectrum are fed up with OLD leadership ."

And just where do you expect the Donks to find this 'younger, smoother' leader to save them from their Bidenalypse? The DNC has been trending older and more Party-Loyal for years. Gabbard and Mancin, the closest thing to reasonable people among the Democrats, are PNG among DNC elite. The House is run by Pelosi, the Senate by Schumer, and the White House by Geritol. And there is no evidence whatsoever that the Democrats have seen the light and are working to remedy this age issue.




"F. So either nominate any of the younger , smarter , true Republicans out there….or get ready to discuss how the 2024 was 'stolen'."

Grow the F up and suck a lemon. We don't know who the Republicans will nominate in 2024 yet, but you really need to come to grips that Trump has a viable candidacy, and if we don't nominate Trump we will need to nominate someone with very similar policies and just a strong a spine.

---

"E. And against a younger , smoother Dem nominee Trump is going to look OLD . Americans across the political spectrum are fed up with OLD leadership ."

All indications are that Buttigieg is someone to watch. He is able to go on the TV with a straight face and calmly give an alternate position. If Trump runs, the contrast will be great. Personally, I do not like him as a Candidate, if you can't manage South Bend's sidewalk masterplan? You could end up with another Carter, a decent guy with good intentions that is in way over his head.

Other younger Candidates that are being discussed. Widmer, if she can win re-election (I don't see it, but she is there). Cooper, if he decides he wants to run. Not "young" but standing on a stage with Trump? (He is who I think is the best guy for the job, not Candidate but the one that could do it, which means he has no chance.)

"F. So either nominate any of the younger , smarter , true Republicans out there….or get ready to discuss how the 2024 was 'stolen'."

There is so much in this little sentence to tear into! I will start with, as long as the voting rules are not changed 4 months before the election or the 1st debate is after voting starts, I will be OK.

DeSantis, is a better Candidate than Trump, period. The question is does he want it? DeSantis served in Congress, ran a State, handled emergencies and showed backbone. His flaw, is he can come across insensitive. In a world run by feelings and people need "mental health days" after working 2 months without a vacation, that could hurt him.

Oldbear83 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

lol, the Dems want nothing to do with running against Trump..

---

Wrong


Trump is too old , too obnoxious and too self destructive .


Dems are extending these ridiculous January 6th hearings just praying that Trump is the Republican nominee.

---

you think all of this is help Trump to be the nominee..

Lord..

---

THINK PEOPLE


Dems know Trump's base loves him regardless of these Jan 6th hearings.

All this BS is geared toward INDEPENDENTS ........making them begin to suspect Trump really did attempt to overthrow the US government .

Repeat a lie long enough and weak minded people will begin to believe it .

Then Trump's consistent ability to self destruct will do the rest.


Trump is the ONE guy the Dem's can beat easily .

Amazing how some of you will not accept the fact that women, moderates and younger voters absolutely HATE the clown....policies be damned .

---

except that polling does not bear that out. He INCREASED his share of the female vote in 2020 and is winning with independents at the moment.

---

So we believe in polling now ….who knew ?

A. Folks don't like Biden .
B. But Biden will NOT be the Dem nominee.

C. Folks nationwide don't see or hear Trump much anymore . So he is ' polling better ' due his name recognition and the fact that gas was much cheaper during his presidency.

D. But once Trump gets a national audience again …the revulsion women, moderates and younger voters instinctively feel for him is going to come back in full force .

E. And against a younger , smoother Dem nominee Trump is going to look OLD . Americans across the political spectrum are fed up with OLD leadership .

F. So either nominate any of the younger , smarter , true Republicans out there….or get ready to discuss how the 2024 was 'stolen'.

---

OK, let's play:

From the guy who demands we THINK but he won't:

"A. Folks don't like Biden ."

There we agree, and applying a little Occam's Razor, that more than anything else means 2020 won't happen again.


"B. But Biden will NOT be the Dem nominee."

Ah, but there the Democrats have a big problem. First, whether or not the Donks replace Joe B, the Democrats as a party pushed hard for all those things that ruined the economy, shut down the pipelines and wells and generally caused misery for Americans. Changing the mascot won't change that impression.

Second, historically it's bad juju for a party with an incumbent President not to support him. Every time the Democrats have abandoned a President in hopes of presenting someone more likable, they lost the White House. That's because - I think - the President has a residual level of support which is not transferable to another candidate, even from the same party.

Third, the Democrats in recent history have only won when they had a well-prepared candidate ready for the race. Biden, despite his poor primary showing, was the Democrats' preferred candidate as early as 2018, just as Obama was waiting in the wings as early as 2006. The last surprise candidate for the Democrats to win was Bill Clinton in 1992, who declared just 15 months before the '92 election and was only a the front-runner after Super Tuesday. But there is no one in the Democrats' potential field with the resume and charisma of Bill Clinton.


"C. Folks nationwide don't see or hear Trump much anymore . So he is ' polling better ' due his name recognition and the fact that gas was much cheaper during his presidency."

Flat wrong. The Democrats have made sure no one forgot Trump. Aside from the show trial hearings of the "Jan 6" committee, Biden tried several times to blame his blunders on Trump, and the media has made him a regular target for attacks. So no, no one has forgotten Trump.

The plain fact is that for all the smearing of Trump, his policies were so much better than Biden's that voters make it clear they prefer Trump. That is not to say Trump would automatically win in 2024, a lot of factors go into that election and it's a long way off yet, but for now the only honest judgment would be that Trump would curb-stomp Biden if the 2024 election were held today, and it was a choice between those two candidates.


"D. But once Trump gets a national audience again …the revulsion women, moderates and younger voters instinctively feel for him is going to come back in full force ."

False. The media has done its worst, and any damage done to Trump was done before the 2020 election. The plain fact is that "women, moderates and younger voters" also have bills to pay, and historically vote their pocketbooks and wallets. This time is simply following that lead.



"E. And against a younger , smoother Dem nominee Trump is going to look OLD . Americans across the political spectrum are fed up with OLD leadership ."

And just where do you expect the Donks to find this 'younger, smoother' leader to save them from their Bidenalypse? The DNC has been trending older and more Party-Loyal for years. Gabbard and Mancin, the closest thing to reasonable people among the Democrats, are PNG among DNC elite. The House is run by Pelosi, the Senate by Schumer, and the White House by Geritol. And there is no evidence whatsoever that the Democrats have seen the light and are working to remedy this age issue.




"F. So either nominate any of the younger , smarter , true Republicans out there….or get ready to discuss how the 2024 was 'stolen'."

Grow the F up and suck a lemon. We don't know who the Republicans will nominate in 2024 yet, but you really need to come to grips that Trump has a viable candidacy, and if we don't nominate Trump we will need to nominate someone with very similar policies and just a strong a spine.

---

Comments on your items in Bold:

B) you've touched on the huge error Trump GOP critics are making. Trump's coalition will NOT automatically transfer over to DeSantis or anyone else. There WILL be losses which must be offset by adds not apparent at the moment. Not saying the adds are not there, just that they are "two in the bush" which may or may not materialize.

C) if Dems do not ironclad close the sale on the J6 Hoax (which polling is manifestly clear they are/will not) they will create the old "there is no such thing as bad publicity" dynamic. Just keeping the guy alive, in the news, and most importantly, relevant as the leader of a reform/restructuring movement.

D) that's the weakness of progressivism - it solves nothing. Literally makes no proposals which could benefit ordinary people deal with ordinary problems of life.

E) all the young leaders in the Dem party are new-generation progressives far to the left of Biden. They are ideologues who cannot/will not pander to centrist notions.

Trump critics completely ignore the reality that Democrats have far bigger problems with their coalition than the GOP does with Trump. It is collapsing, in no small part because of Trump

whiterock said:

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Canada2017 said:

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4th and Inches said:

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Canada2017 said:

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4th and Inches said:

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Osodecentx said:

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Canada2017 said:

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ABC BEAR said:

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Trump is going to win the nomination and the general in a landslide over Kamala. The real question is 'who will be Trump's VP.' This person will get 4 years OJT to prepare for 8 years of their own in the WH.

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Sounds similar to the landslide win Trump was going to have over Biden in 2020.

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Truth. Nominate Trump and lose. Why do the Dems want to run against Trump?

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lol, the Dems want nothing to do with running against Trump..

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Wrong


Trump is too old , too obnoxious and too self destructive .


Dems are extending these ridiculous January 6th hearings just praying that Trump is the Republican nominee.

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you think all of this is help Trump to be the nominee..

Lord..

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THINK PEOPLE


Dems know Trump's base loves him regardless of these Jan 6th hearings.

All this BS is geared toward INDEPENDENTS ........making them begin to suspect Trump really did attempt to overthrow the US government .

Repeat a lie long enough and weak minded people will begin to believe it .

Then Trump's consistent ability to self destruct will do the rest.


Trump is the ONE guy the Dem's can beat easily .

Amazing how some of you will not accept the fact that women, moderates and younger voters absolutely HATE the clown....policies be damned .

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except that polling does not bear that out. He INCREASED his share of the female vote in 2020 and is winning with independents at the moment.

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Correct. Another small example of a gap between those who ingest spin and those who ingest data. Trump lost ground among his largest demographic, white men and gained in every other. However, the former was so much larger that loss torpedoed him.

The moderate critique is weird too as Trump is by far the most moderate president we have had in decades. He is a pre-2008 Democrat in ever since of the word.