bubbadog said:Since this all speculative anyway, I'll go ahead and speculate what would happen in the wake of a Texit:LIB,MR BEARS said:I'm not at the point I'm willing to secede but, I think the details need to be looked at now to see what we'd be up against during and after Texit. I think it's akin to reviewing your options before removing that benign tumor.TexasScientist said:What would you gain from division?Osodecentx said:This law review article says Texas can divide & we already have permission from the US Congress to do so.fubar said:I believe Texas did have that option when it was first admitted in 1845.Osodecentx said:I think you are wrong about Texas being able to divide into 5 states.bubbadog said:Let's be real about this. They don't need a committee to investigate whether secession is feasible (along with the old idea of dividing into 5 states). You could make 5 quick phone calls to constitutional law experts and get the answer, which is no.Texasjeremy said:
Keep in mind, if it were to get on the ballot and pass, they would then form a committee to spend 2 years investigating if its feasible. Think of it like Brexit, once it passed the voters it took awhile before they were able to separate themselves. Not saying they are right or wrong, but if Texas would be better off, it is at the very least worth looking into.
This is not about helping the people of Texas make a more informed decision. This is just about scoring political points, and wasting taxpayer money in the process.
Revisionist History has a great podcast on this. I'll track it down and post for you
People seem to forget that Texas was admitted a second time, and I doubt that provision about dividing was in there that time.
http://revisionisthistory.com/pdfs/Kesavan_Paulsen.pdf
Texas would immediately become a lot more like Mexico than a lot of Texans would like: poorer, weaker, and with a worse quality of life for many of its citizens.
Poorer: Texas is a net recipient of federal money, receiving more back from Washington than it contributes in taxes. State's economy still heavily affected by oil prices -- not a great industry to bet on for the long term, especially with GM's announcement yesterday.
Weaker: US military pullout from Ft. Hood, Ft. Bliss, AF bases in San Antonio, Brook Army Medical Center removes a lot of jobs and economic infusion now coming into the state. Besides Texas now having to foot the bill for its own defense, I presume the state would have to negotiate to purchase the land for those bases.
Quality of life: In Texas, 4.4 million people (mostly children) received Medicaid assistance. Somehow I doubt that independent Texas would provide anything close to the social safety net that people now have. That may be just fine with a majority of Texans, but it means they'll also have to live with more people on the margins, with poorer health outcomes, etc. Would Texans lose their Social Security and Medicare benefits that they've paid into the system but haven't accessed yet? Those could be negotiated in some type of Texit treaty, but if Texas simply votes to secede, I don't see that Congress is obliged to give that money back.
The point of HB 1359 is not to seceed, but to allow Texans to vote to allow the state to get more clarification on many topics regarding independence.
This might be able to address some of your concerns, hope this helps:
Will Texas be able to fund the government after TEXIT?
https://tnm.me/texit/government/will-texas-be-able-to-fund-the-government-after-texit
Simple arithmetic proves the ability of an independent Texas to fund a government at the same level that Texans are currently accustomed to if that's what Texans want.
Texans currently pay, in all, federal and state taxes an average of $336 billion per year. This represents the total amount of revenue readily available to an independent Texas without increasing the financial burden on Texans one single cent. From that amount, subtract the amount spent by both the federal government and state government in Texas. $228 billion is the average amount of expenditures required to maintain every program, every job (both civilian and military), every department, every facility (including military bases), and fulfill every function (including current federal contract spending to Texas companies) provided by the federal and state governments. This level of government revenue would rank Texas 12th in the world for government revenue collected.
Will the economy in an independent Texas be better?
https://tnm.me/texit/business-commerce-trade/will-the-economy-in-an-independent-texas-be-better
On average, Texas ranks as having the 10th largest economy in the world. There is no doubt that an independent Texas will do better.
To quote the conservative firebrand and Texit advocate, Claver Kamau-Imani, "After Texit, we're gonna be rich!" He's not exaggerating. Texas already collectively possesses a fair amount of wealth as one of the largest economies in the world. However, Texit promises to bring that wealth to every citizen of Texas. In exploring the negative effect of excessive federal regulations on Texans, the cited study showed how it has shrunk the paychecks of Texans by 75 percent. Flip the script and look at it from the standpoint of a Texas no longer subjected to those excessive federal regulations. Over time, the average Texan could see a 400 percent increase in take-home pay.
The retention of this type of wealth by Texans translates into an explosion of new business startups and corporate expansions, reducing unemployment to near zero. Texas can experience double-digit economic growth as the lack of an income tax turns Texas into an international haven for wealth and foreign investment. All of this economic activity results in an increase in government revenue, leading to better schools, improved infrastructure, and additional tax breaks.
The best data available shows a correlation between increased consumer spending and an increase in household income at a near 1:1 ratio. With these kinds of numbers, Texas could eliminate the property tax, leave the sales tax rate untouched, and still produce an increase in government revenue over and above what Texans currently pay to both the state and federal governments.
What will happen to all of the U.S. military bases after TEXIT?
https://tnm.me/texit/defense-national-security/what-will-happen-to-all-of-the-u-s-military-bases-after-texit
Texas is currently home to 15 military installations with an economic impact of around $150 billion. However, the military installations account for only $14 billion in federal payroll spending in Texas. In addition, there are currently more than 118,000 Texans on active duty status across all branches of the military. These are not insignificant figures.
However, it is important not to conflate the issues of military presence and political union. The United States maintains nearly 800 military bases in more than 70 countries and territories abroad. No one would argue that those 70 countries are in a political union with the United States due to the presence of a U.S. military base, nor would anyone argue that they should be. The presence of these military bases on foreign soil is solely about shared defense concerns and security interests. It does not imply any further political connection.
After a Texit, Texas may not share a government with the rest of the United States, but we will still share defense and national security concerns. International military cooperation has been a cornerstone of U.S. defense policy since the Second World War and, while it has been suggested that there should be some reforms, the underlying policy is unlikely to change, especially close to home.
It is, therefore, highly probable that Texas would enter into a mutual defense pact with the United States that includes joint use and operation of existing military bases and facilities in Texas or their full transfer to the Texas Military Department. As a part of any mutual defense pact, Texas will likely have to pledge to spend a set percentage of its GDP on national defense, much like the reforms proposed for NATO. In return, the United States should guarantee the availability of military arms and equipment for tariff-free purchase by manufacturers in the United States and vice versa. Texas should stipulate that the mutual defense pact should only extend to commonly agreed defense concerns.
Any mutual defense pact of this nature could set a transition period where things essentially stay as they are now, operating under a joint command until such time as the already established Texas Military Forces are at full readiness.
What could replace Social Security in an independent Texas?
https://tnm.me/texit/healthcare-social-services/what-could-replace-social-security-in-an-independent-texas
Although those currently receiving Social Security payments would continue to do so in an independent Texas, the question becomes one of what a replacement system could look like in an independent Texas.
Fortunately, Texas is already leading the way with concrete examples of what a Social Security replacement could look like.
Three counties in Texas have shown the public that they can opt-out of Social Security by setting up their own system for personal retirement accounts. This decision has allowed these counties to avoid any financial concerns and has even provided their retirees with a higher amount of retirement income.
Employees of Brazoria, Matagorda, and Galveston County have experienced a growth in retirement savings annually. Under their model, both employee and employer contributions are handled by a financial planner. The agency "First Financial Benefits Inc." of Houston currently manages their retirement accounts and has done so since the system's inception in 1981.
All of the contributions are collected, similar to bank deposits, and financial institutions begin bidding on the money. These same institutions guarantee that interest rates will not go down to a certain level, and may even go higher if everything goes smoothly in the market.
Under this model, accounts are able to earn between 3.75% and 5.75% each year, averaging at about 5% overall. This rate was even higher during the 1990s when it reached up to 7%. Ultimately, employees make more money when the market is up but will still earn something even when it goes down.
These "Texas Model" in these three counties has consistently outperformed the federal system with better returns and greater long-term stability.
Guaranteed retirement benefits from a private organization are enticing for us in Texas, especially since studies have indicated the depletion of Social Security funds in the near future.
The model shown by the three counties proves that we Texans can set up our own retirement and pension system, and do so successfully, despite secession by way of TEXIT.
What will happen to people who rely on Medicare after TEXIT?
https://tnm.me/category/texit/healthcare-social-services
Medicare is an incredibly important issue for many Texans who support Texas independence. We will not abandon Texans who rely on these kinds of services as the whole point of independence is to help Texans whose needs and values have been abandoned by the federal system. An independent Texan nation would need to set up our own version of the Medicare system for those who are already on Medicare or those close to nearing retirement age who would otherwise rely on the healthcare coverage provided by Medicare. With the $103 $160 billion we already overpay into the federal government this should not be too difficult. It's also important to note that this new system would run a lot smoother and be more flexible as it will be run by Texans and for Texans.