1. I assessed it 50-50 odds after election day last month. I think that remains supportable, with the caveat than any error would more likely be mildly to the downside rather than the upside. Polls on GOP primary were all over the place in Nov. Most of the reputable firms showed little change in the race, with Trump near/above 50% support in a crowded. That should not be surprising, given the ardor of his base. Most of the ones showing him collapsing come with asterisks - either a binary race (which it will not likely be) or timing/datasets which hint at push-polling....a poll result designed to influence rather than inform. And that latter point is instructive. Trump is taking a metric ****-ton of incoming fire. NeverTrumpers are desperate to turn the results of the mid-terms into an albatross around his neck....completely, utterly, SOLELY his fault. Problem is, that spin doesn't stand close inspection. Almost every point they make is undermined by an obvious counterpoint. Yeah, we've lost Senate seats two elections in a row. But we gained senate seats in 2018 and gained house seats the last two elections. And so on. Same for his standings vis-a-vis Biden. Yeah, today, Trump is even to -4 depending on which poll one looks at. But then, he's been running ahead of Biden almost continuously since 2020. And Biden is getting a not unexpected bump after the results of the mid-terms. But all of that is ephemeral, rear-view window stuff. The race will be driven by things which have not yet happened. $7/gal gasoline is going to harm Biden mightily,. So will the recession we're in that everybody is trying to define away. Sure, Trump has potentially existential legal issues facing him. But he's had those since the day he was inaugurated, hasn't he? So will they prove his undoing, or will they fire-up if not grow his base? So many scenarios here for a mudder like Trump to turn the media narrative into earned media that propels rather than punishes. (has happened before....) At some point, Trump will start responding. That will help his numbers a few points.Mothra said:
Questions:
1. Do you think Trump will be the GOP nominee?
2. What percentage chance do you give him of winning the 2024 general election?
2. Much of that applies to the 2024 general. If we have peace and prosperity, he has no chance. And neither will any other GOP candidate. If we see socio-economic conditions deteriorate from where they are today, then any GOP candidate has a chance. That is, unless the GOP gets serious about mail-in voting. GOP state legislatures MUST curtail or end the practice. Most won't. Most will do some version of what GA did....tweak it but not fix it. And where it cannot be fixed, then the GOP is going to have to not just gear up but fundamentally change worldview on mail-in voting. We will have to register voters. Not register people. Register VOTERS. We cannot give two-****s about whether a voter on a list is double registered in state, or registered in one or more other states, or actually even alive. If there's a name on a voter roll that can be identified with one or more GOP demographics that name has to be registered. And that name on the roll must request a ballot. and that name on the roll must cast that ballot. And people must be paid to ensure that happens, with the slightest concern whatsoever about whether that that name is actually connected to, or one or more duplicates of, a sentient life-form. That name on the list MUST vote. For a Republican.
I never thought I'd say or believe that about mail-in voting. Today, I am quite steely eyed about it. Chairman of McLennan GOP a couple of years ago stood in her restaurant and spoke openly about how hard they were registering Baylor kids to vote. Some of the patrons around her asked about whether the kids were registered at home or on campus.....how would she know....wasn't there a risk of double voting. Her response? "Not my problem. I want them to vote. Preferably here. It's not my responsibility to ensure they don't vote somewhere else." Like I've said here in many threads.....we've got to adopt the position that we are going to watch what Democrats do, then beat them at them it. As long as they can use mail-in voting to beat us, they are going to do so and howl in outrage at any effort to change law as the rankest voter suppression. It's not until we use mail-in votes to defeat them that Democrats will spin and become the most ardent critics of mail-in voting and demand reforms. Not the way it should be. Just the way it is.
Trump can win 2024. Right now, today? maybe a 45% chance. But we've got a lot of things to work on. If we do, and macro-conditions move our direction (which they almost certainly will) then he could win the popular vote.
And who knows, maybe some other GOP candidate can catch fire. Maybe that new candidate can galvanize the positives of the MAGA movement and add to it. RDS is an intriguing option. But he's got an awful lot of work to do and is, at this point, not clearly outclassing Trump in the polls v Biden. So all the bashing of Trump from the GOP side is quite counterproductive. For all the valid criticisms that can be levied against Trump, the Democrats are worse. People who attack Trump rather than Democrats are, at this point, part of the problem rather than the solution. We need every artillery tube we have dumping rounds at Democrats. The 2024 primary will sort itself out in due time.