I agree with that statement in bold, and it is consistent with the available polling data, context being Trump was unassailable and now it's a horse race.RMF5630 said:You can say and show what you want, polling is polling. **** in, **** out. I deal with surveys, models and simulation everyday.whiterock said:RMF5630 said:whiterock said:
Not a ton of stuff, but there are a few directly asking or banging around the margins of the question discussed here, proviso being that they are a couple of weeks old. Bottom line is, as of today, there is a small amount of data indicating that RDS is running 2-3 points better against Biden than Trump is. Same for popularity. Pretty close. Within margin of error. But a trend of "advantage RDS" seems to emerge.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
And then you have to add context. The last 6 weeks of polling on these questions are more favorable for Biden and RDS, and less favorable for Trump than the historical averages since the 2022 election. So it's early. The numbers are recent. And come during the "cooldown" period following an election, not the normal vicissitudes of everyday affairs. These numbers may hold. They may return to historic averages. They may yawn against Trump. Kinda hard to bet much on which way they will go.
I cannot see any scenario where Trump is best shot to win in 24. He also needs to stay away from the Walker, Oz type candidates!
Right now, he's very competitive.
More polling on Biden:
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/12/10/poll-joe-biden-approval-under-water-nearly-every-key-issue/
The polls showed a Red Wave, the polls underestimated Trump in 20, and the polls showed Clinton winning in 16. They are notoriously inconsistent. To the point that they are basically bar talk. You never know what poll and which race it will be accurate on. Look at the spread from the 2022 midterms, you have a better shot beating Vegas using a spread of sports betting sites!
https://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2022/11/the-best-and-worst-polls-from-the-2022-midterm-elections/
There is a "feel" to elections that polling doesn't capture and analytics misses. You can feel how elections are going, you could feel Clinton was not going to win even though the polls gave her up to a 99% chance of winning. Just like now, you can feel that Trump is losing ground. As much as the "data people" want to say different, I am not buying it. He is self-destructing is what I am seeing and the constant attacks are starting to ***** the armor, see NY Tax Valuation Case. I suspect more is to come. Attaching your wagon to Trump is a losing proposition. I really hope GOP get's new blood, we can't survive another Biden type Presidency.
Polls are not the be all to end all. Some are better than others. And the "some" and the "others" vary from cycle to cycle. But when you spot a trend in nearly all the polls, it's hard to "yeah, but" it away. And they are the only data we really have directly speaking to whatever hypotheses or gut feelings we might have. In this case, they do not at all appear to conflict and seem to be pointing in the same direction.
A big part of analysis is reconciling what "should" happen with what "will" happen. Right now, the entirely reasonable proposition that Trump should go away seems quite strong among the chattering class and wizards of smart (this board). But the will go away proposition is not quite so clear, due to long timeframe (primaries are a year away), course of future events (the mid-term effect will diminish and we will see some issues arise which play to Trump's strengths), rules & calendars of the primaries (always a big factor), and the enduring nature of Trump's appeal with +33% of the GOP base (many of whom do not think the way we think here).
I like RDS. I want to know more about his campaign operations for mail-in voting. From what I understand, FL law is quite a bit more restrictive than the laws in the key battleground states, so we need to know how we plan to address that as a national campaign by BOTH party and candidate. If we do not spent $500m on such in about 6-8 key states, we have no chance to win no matter who is our candidate.