cowboycwr said:
RealEstateBear said:
Mass illegal and legal immigration is why people can't afford homes. Mass deportations will take care of the problem and believe me it must and will happen.
Looking forward to the real estate crash when millions of homes come up for sale once we remove people who do not belong here
I have heard this said several times but it doesn't make sense to me. Illegals tend to buy homes in the areas people don't want to live in. They are usually much older homes or smaller new homes. They do not tend to buy the 3 or 4 bedroom, 2000sq ft houses. So it seems the homes they are buying should be the expensive ones and not much of an impact on the slightly larger ones.
That is true, but it still creates upward pressure on housing supply. It forces the poor into rental property, and those who can do so will trade up to a larger & more expensive home. And of course the sellers will do the same. And on and on and on.
Macroeconomics 101: Supply & demand. Every time a person crosses the Rio Grande, the consumption of tacos & toilet paper goes up. And they have to sleep somewhere. If 20m of them are finding places to live, there must be 20m new beds for them or demand will outstrip supply leading to increased prices.
One of the big risks of deporting 20m million people is that it pops the bubble too fast. With 00 buckshot.
Think of it this way. PIck a number. 11m illegals is roughly Ohio. 20m illegals is roughly New York. Deport 10m illegals? It's like taking every living being out of Ohio, leaving the state totally empty. Deport 20m illegals? It's like taking every living being out of NY, leaving the state empty. That will create a LOT of supply for housing. It would crater the real estate markets nationwide, residential AND commercial. Foreclosures would quickly collapse the banking system. And on and on 3rd, 4th order effects.
THAT is why it will not happen. (at least not in the 10-20m range). Even during the hot phases of the Industrial revolution, population growth was the largest single portion of economic growth. Tacos & toilet paper.... The allure of it, cheap and easy economic stimulus, is why both parties let so many illegals just walk across the border over the last 20 years. A little illegal immigration is a positive. Too much is destabilizing. We are in that latter territory now.