RMF5630 said:
whiterock said:
4th and Inches said:
Anybody here still doubting it's gonna be Trump/DeSantis?
I just can't see DeSantis being 2nd chair. I can see this being Trump OR DeSantis depending on how things play out.
why?
What makes you think DeSantis would approach this as "first chair or none"?
Here's the way his consultants are advising him:
Former POTUS is, historically, an almost impregnable position to hold in a POTUS primary. And this one is in a dominant position, over 50% support. That will climb by 10-20 points in coming weeks. So DeSantis has very long odds of winning a primary, and with that certainty of loss comes a certainty of getting bruised up. That's a dreadfully bad risk/return equation. Bad idea.
So DeSantis stands pat. Serves out a 4 year term as FL Gov. And then finds himself out of office with a 2-year wait for then next POTUS primary. No pulpit to make news. No fundraising base to work. Keep in mind, when a sitting governor runs for POTUS, his donor base is faced with this dilemma: he's either gonna be your gov. or your POTUS....can you afford NOT to donate to his POTUS run? If you do and he wins...you're good. If you do and he doesn't win, you still helped your governor and he owes you. If you don't....win or lose, you're out. So DeSantis faces a bad timeline. He will not have a declining fundraising base. But Youngkin will be halfway thru his 2nd term. Abbott his 3rd. Who else might flash well and catch eyes? Waiting is not without risk, and it puts you in a position of declining power while your competitors are cresting.
As you weigh all that......VP is, historically, one of the best positions to hold in a POTUS primary. And in this particular case, the man at the top of the ticket only has one term remaining. So you're not looking at an 8 yar wait, but a 4 year wait.
So you can run, and lose, which will finish your political career.
Or you can not run while you're hot and wait until you're warmed over and others are hot.
Or you can take the VP slot and coast into the nomination 4 years down the road.
Think it thru. He will take the VP slot if offered. VP keeps him at the top of his game all the way thru to 2028. Staying as FL gov does not.