Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
jimdue said:
Mothra said:
boognish_bear said:
Such a dumbass.
A dumbass for sure but also very predictable behavior. Once it is obvious that he is not getting the nomination, he will definitely try to burn the place down.
So many outright lies. The Lincoln Project has been railing against DeSantis for 3 years.
Wouldn't surprise me at all if he runs third party if he doesn't get the nom. Such a petulant little child.
whiterock thinks these sort of attacks will be successful, though.
how many points do they have to shave off to be successful?
remember what I told you months ago about one of the biggest problems RDS faces: he's never run for national office. He doesn't have true nationwide name ID outside of the GOP universe. The process of "introducing" him to the public has already begun, by his opponents, on both sides of the aisle. Millions of people will be introduced to him in the most negative of terms. His negatives will rise from where they are today. Maybe a little. Maybe a lot. The question is, how does he deal with that. CAN he deal with that and still run FL as Gov. As his negative rise, can he maintain or grow his positives?
Now, before you get all buzz-sawed up on the foregoing paragraph, let me say that RDS is very talented. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he emerged from that in a better position than he is today. But it will be a gauntlet. And he's starting off 15-points behind, give or take a few points.
If he can pull it off, he will be unstoppable.
When Trump states outright lies, kind of hypocritical, don't you think? Here is the guy who coined the phrase :"fake news" because of all of the lies told about him. Yet, when he does it, should we just ignore it, or chalk it up to politics? Is lying ok as long as it is done for political purposes?
I don't disagree with you that RDS has his work cut out for him, and never suggested otherwise. I simply think the personal smears and outright lies damage Trump's credibility - what little semblance he has left, if any.
I am curious how you see the election playing out. Think Trump wins the nomination? Think he beats Biden? What would you say the chances are?
General: A Trump/DeSantis ticket may well be our best chance to win. I know, I know, I know.....that suggestion has been trashed here before. But what would be a better ticket? RDS & someone else? Yeah, his advantage in favorables (see above) is clear. But it will be difficult for him to hold onto those margins, almost impossible. Will there be any margin left at all on election day? Maybe, maybe not. RDS is a more appealing candidate, but also a riskier candidate....maybe more upside, maybe not. Trump, for all the warts & scars & nonsense, is a known quantity. Not much will change. You know what you have to work on to win. It will be hard, but you have 18 months so get busy. Which task do you want to accept....the known road with a couple of very hard stretches that are passable if you prepare well, or the untried route that may lead to spectacular victory or spectacular loss? Throwing aside a base of 75m voters is not something one does on a whim. My instincts are to hold onto the base we have, despite the flaws of its leader, and sharpen our spears, because scrapping it to work on a cunning plan is usually not a very cunning plan.
While I disagree with you that RDS will agree to run as VP with Trump, that ticket is preferable to others (though it will never happen).
I am not sure how "risky" it is to run some new blood instead of a 75-year-old loser. Sure, he has a strong base, but that base was just enough to come up short the last election, and would in all likelihood transfer their affections to the Republican nominee, whomever that is. If it's Trump, no reason to believe this election will be any different than the last, with a candidate even less popular than before, unless you know something I don't.
What do you put Trump's chances at? Give me a percentage.
VP: if he does not win the nomination, RDS has a calculation to make. What's the best odds to the WH? Joining the ticket has much to commend it. There's always a chance Trump can win. He's in better position to day than he was in 2016. Biden's numbers will likely worsen. And Trump has a 75m voting base to start with. So the odds are better than Trump critics allow, certainly not hopeless. RDS would help. The upside to joining the ticket for RDS is a win/win. If Trump wins, RDS is VP and in the catbird seat for 2028. Possibly only token challenges for the nomination. So what's the "win" if Trump loses? RDS gets national exposure. Connections to all national fundraising networks. Relationships with state and federal officials all across the country. That a better position than sitting out the race. He'll catch some grief for not joining the ticket. Not a lot, but it'll leave a mark with the Trump base (approx 35-40% of the GOP). And when 2028 comes around, he won't be Gov of FL (unless he runs for a 3rd term). He'll be a former Gov of FL. (and what if he runs for a 3rd term and loses?) He won't be able to squeeze as much money out of FL fundraising networks (because he can no longer appoint, or write orders, or sign/veto legislation). It'll be only from a smaller universe of what is personally loyal to him. And he will not have as much nationwide name ID and fundraising and political connections he would have generated as a VP candidate or as sitting Gov. Plus, time will allow other names to rise in prominence. Glenn Youngkin (presuming he continues to do well and is re-elected in 2026) will be stronger politicall, and stronger tactically (running in the middle of his term). TIMING is a big deal. RDS is cresting now. 4 years is an ice-age in politics. planning to wait that long is hardly a high-percentage calculation. Not trying to say it's a slam dunk that he will accept a VP nomination in 2024. Saying that the idea it's a slam-dunk he won't accept a VP invite from Trump is a very hasty conclusion. Yes, he will posture and aver that he will NEVER do it, because he has to remain beyond event horizon - once people start to perceive him more as a VP than POTUS, his race for the nomination is over.
Risk: there is a reason we have a lot of career politicians. Donors and voters know what to expect from someone who's been around a while (particularly donors). Yes, young fresh faces are what everyone says they like. But look at the track record of young & fresh....... Now, RDS is not exactly a newborn infant in the political world, but he has not been subjected to the level of proctology he is going to get as a P/VP candidate. We don't know what might pop out. Contrast that with Trump. We know all the gory details so well they now have to make stuff up, really wild-assed half-cocked stuff to get a new outrage. And he still got 75m votes. The risk with Trump is limited to "will our plan to overcome known negatives work." The risks with a new candidate....an RDS, a Youngkin, a Kemp, a Haley, a Scott, etc......there's a whole universe of stuff we don't know. Running a nationwide campaign is orders of magnitude more difficult than running a statewide campaign. And even if there's no hidden bombs, and only a few smudges on the underwear & holes in the socks....wild-assed half-cocked outrages will be spun from it. Can they survive it? Well, yeah, they should, but they haven't passed the test yet, have they? How will they react? How will their team react? How will their base react? How will crossover voters react? Big question marks. Ted Cruz was adored by his Texas base for being a true believer....you can count on Ted to lead the conservative charge. But Trump tagged him as Lyin' Ted and negated that elsewhere. And the pressure of the campaign caused cracks in his marriage that were not helpful. Not a small step up, running for POTUS. If you have a weakness, it will become glaring. Can you survive? Trump has. The rest we just don't know.
yes, yes, yes.....Trump Trump Trump. But he's weathered all that, and still is leading in the primary and running neck & neck with his likely opponent (and running better than that against less-likely opponents.)
don't let aversion cause you to quit thinking. These things are not as clear cut as your arguments need them to be. Trump is AT his floor. His ceiling is for sure limited. There is no scenario where he wins 49 states. But There is enough ceiling to cover the very close loss he had in 2020. We don't know where the floor or ceiling is with any of the alternatives. Yes, theoretically RDS could out-perform. There's also at least an equal chance the Dems could drive his negatives to Trump levels and win a landslide. RDS does not have a nationwide 75m vote base. He's got to build that. Can he? Your energy to dump Trump leads you to presume many, many things that may not happen......
Haley actually has the "tested" issue in her favor. Yes, SC is a small state, but boy was her first GOV race nasty. She was in some ways she was portrayed as Trump in a skirt (and I'll leave it at that....) . and she sttod like a stone wall. She's not on my preferred list, but I do enormously respect her toughness and what shw weathered in that race is a pretty ggod indicator of sufficient moxie
