curious about this thread. Why is it many of you think buying a nice home with a white picket fence is a right for young people?

Oldbear83 said:

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No one said it's a right. But there's something rotten about the bill of new homes being bought by "investors" without ordinary folks getting much chance .

It's a middle class thing, JR, you wouldn't understand.

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Most builders I know don't like to sell to investors except as a last resort.

Oldbear83 said:

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No one said it's a right. But there's something rotten about the bulk of new homes being bought by "investors" without ordinary folks getting much chance .

It's a middle class thing, JR, you wouldn't understand.

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incorrect old man. I have 2 highly educated children with great jobs and they can't afford a home where they would like to live. Oldie, there are things called apartments, duplexes, rental houses. That is what my kids do, but it is part of ther process of maturing and paving your own way, whatever it looks like. I live in an apt. and rent by choice.

JR, you have made very clear that you are an outlier in essentially every respect.

J.R. said:

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curious about this thread. Why is it many of you think buying a nice home with a white picket fence is a right for young people?

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Its not.

"But I'm wasting money on rent!"

Right up until they inevitably buy more house than they can afford with 3.5% down, forget to add the 1-2% per year to maintain it and it nickels and dimes them to death on the off chance they will "make" money selling it which in most markets not named Texas or Florida, mostly means getting back the money you put in to it.

You're also stuck in it. Can't just go "3 more months on this lease and I'm out!"

I bet 50% of my customer base is under 25 and another 25% is under 35 and I bet fully half of those or more are house poor and our business is in one of the cheapest parts of the country to live.

We are doing it wrong.
1920 > 2020. pic.twitter.com/Qj885oCZaU

— Aaron Lubeck (@aaron_lubeck) September 19, 2024

We have real estate, equity and credit bubbles right now, and they're massive. We've never seen all three form at the same time.

I believe inflation will go higher than anyone can imagine.

Nobody is going to be fooled anymore if Powell pivots at the first whiff of a recession.
It will be very clear to everyone that the Federal open market committee can never allow interest rates to normalize.

Doc Holliday said:

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We have real estate, equity and credit bubbles right now, and they're massive. We've never seen all three form at the same time.

I believe inflation will go higher than anyone can imagine.

Nobody is going to be fooled anymore if Powell pivots at the first whiff of a recession.
It will be very clear to everyone that the Federal open market committee can never allow interest rates to normalize.

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The key there is the definition of the word "normalize." We've had unsustainably low interest rates for over a decade.

As promised earlier tonight, here is Michelle Bowman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors:

"Given the current low inventory of affordable housing, the inflow of new immigrants to some geographic areas could result in upward pressure on rents."https://t.co/dfO0wFmyPs pic.twitter.com/KfDjPaZC7G

— JD Vance (@JDVance) October 2, 2024

Redbrickbear said:

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We are doing it wrong.
1920 > 2020. pic.twitter.com/Qj885oCZaU

— Aaron Lubeck (@aaron_lubeck) September 19, 2024

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He is right. We no longer build with a sense of style. We have become so focused on cost that what we are building is crap. Look at the infrastructure being built around the world and compare to the US. The urban planning, architects and landscape architects are more concerned about CO2 than style. You design iconic designs and it gets "value engineered" to cookie cutter. Or frigging engineers tell you 50 reasons why we shouldn't do it. Frustrating. Engineers are as bad as accountants!

FLBear5630 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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We are doing it wrong.
1920 > 2020. pic.twitter.com/Qj885oCZaU

— Aaron Lubeck (@aaron_lubeck) September 19, 2024

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He is right. We no longer build with a sense of style. We have become so focused on cost that what we are building is crap. Look at the infrastructure being built around the world and compare to the US. The urban planning, architects and landscape architects are more concerned about CO2 than style. You design iconic designs and it gets "value engineered" to cookie cutter. Or frigging engineers tell you 50 reasons why we shouldn't do it. Frustrating. Engineers are as bad as accountants!

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thats my
Favorite style of house.. the craftsman period.

Built in bookcases with stain glass doors, coffered ceilings, elephant pillars on front porch.. there alot of modern houses built in the craftsman nueva style.

But yea, alot of ugly houses were built.. alot of mid mods, ranches, split levels, pretty much every house in the 70s and 80s.. lol

Come to Cleveland. There are approximately a million of them.

nein51 said:

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Come to Cleveland. There are approximately a million of them.

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Rust belt is an interesting area. Lived in Milwaukee for 6 years. Brother coached in Ann Arbor, used to drive that whole corridor. Some really nice areas surrounded by 1983 Beirut!

Housing is such a fucking scam. Made with tinfoil, toothpicks and paint.

$400k my asspic.twitter.com/6CHNaTho8i

— Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) October 19, 2024

boognish_bear said:

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Housing is such a fucking scam. Made with tinfoil, toothpicks and paint.

$400k my asspic.twitter.com/6CHNaTho8i

— Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) October 19, 2024

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that hole wont pass, tbere are metal lateral shear straps under the thermaply(cardboard but not really), the brick is the stromg exterior sitting on concrete and the brick ties are nailed to the wood studs.

That home is built almost exactly like a house was built 30 years ago. The sheeting is thinner, but the sheeting is no longer use for lateral sheer. They use specific bracing for that instead.

Bidenflation

boognish_bear said:

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Housing is such a fucking scam. Made with tinfoil, toothpicks and paint.

$400k my asspic.twitter.com/6CHNaTho8i

— Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) October 19, 2024

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Well no one in America is paying for quality with new homes.....they are paying to get away from class dysfunction

Why did you move to that new house?

The answer is almost always....."had to move there for a job so I can live" or "had to get our kids out of the old school...it was that bad"

Redbrickbear said:

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boognish_bear said:

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Housing is such a fucking scam. Made with tinfoil, toothpicks and paint.

$400k my asspic.twitter.com/6CHNaTho8i

— Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) October 19, 2024

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The answer is almost always....."had to move there for a job so I can live" or "had to get our kids of the old school...it was that bad"

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True

Allow me to add….to go to a safer area, be closer to our grandchildren.

Purchase a ranch style home to avoid stairs, be closer to a good hospital, be closer to a sick son or mother, liquidate equity to help the younger generation or pay off debts.

Rarely……to live exactly where we want to live and truly build our 'dream home '.

Those were always the hardest contracts to fill.

IF U.S. incomes spiked 60%, we'd return to pre-pandemic housing affordability levels

IF U.S. home prices fell 38%, we'd return to pre-pandemic affordability

IF mortgage rates fell 4.15 percentage points (from 6.5% to 2.23%), we'd return to pre-pandemic affordability pic.twitter.com/9XslAqYbuH

— Lance Lambert (@NewsLambert) October 21, 2024

Mortgage rates spike back to 6.8%.

The disconnect between mortgage rates and real estate investor returns has never been greater.

Expect institutional investors to continue selling houses, and for inventory to keep increasing in the South especially. pic.twitter.com/xQBmk1xdEV

— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) October 21, 2024

I am looking forward to President Trump bringing back his executive order that required the government to build beautiful buildings instead of ugly ones https://t.co/pEjbW85LXv

— Dr. Ben Braddock (@GraduatedBen) October 22, 2024

Redbrickbear said:

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I am looking forward to President Trump bringing back his executive order that required the government to build beautiful buildings instead of ugly ones https://t.co/pEjbW85LXv

— Dr. Ben Braddock (@GraduatedBen) October 22, 2024

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There is more to this than people think.

We used to build with character. Now it is based on "value engineering"... Another term for how cheap can you build it before it falls down...

But with an inflated price, probably because of kickbacks and fraud.

Oldbear83 said:

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historian said:

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But with an inflated price, probably because of kickbacks and fraud.

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You mean how school districts build new schools now?

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Two things about school construction always stand out to me.

1. That they almost always choose new modernist and ugly architecture

2. That they never seem to remodel older buildings or expanded them....they move the majority of the time to tearing it totally down and building new.

Redbrickbear said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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historian said:

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But with an inflated price, probably because of kickbacks and fraud.

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You mean how school districts build new schools now?

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Two things about school construction are always stand out to me.

1. That they almost always choose new modernist and ugly architecture

2. That they never seem to remodel older buildings or expanded them....they move the majority of the time to tearing it totally down and building new.

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yes, there is a reason for that.. city, county, state and federal regulations

It is actually cheaper to build new than decontaminate, remediate, and renovate

4th and Inches said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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historian said:

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But with an inflated price, probably because of kickbacks and fraud.

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You mean how school districts build new schools now?

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Two things about school construction always stand out to me.

1. That they almost always choose new modernist and ugly architecture

2. That they never seem to remodel older buildings or expanded them....they move the majority of the time to tearing it totally down and building new.

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yes, there is a reason for that.. city, county, state and federal regulations

It is actually cheaper to build new than decontaminate, remediate, and renovate

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Very interesting

Thanks

I mean how most governments at all levels go much if anything these days. It probably has always been that way. The result is increasing corruption & tyranny.

Once again, the Founding Fathers are proved correct in their to create a republic meaning limited power and real checks on that power. Much of that has been effectively corrupted over the past 120+ years through "progressive reforms" (actually fascism).

4th and Inches said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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historian said:

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But with an inflated price, probably because of kickbacks and fraud.

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You mean how school districts build new schools now?

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Two things about school construction are always stand out to me.

1. That they almost always choose new modernist and ugly architecture

2. That they never seem to remodel older buildings or expanded them....they move the majority of the time to tearing it totally down and building new.

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yes, there is a reason for that.. city, county, state and federal regulations

It is actually cheaper to build new than decontaminate, remediate, and renovate

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I wonder how many of those environmental, safety, etc regulations make much sense. No doubt some are essential but I also have no doubt that some are just power grabs by a bureaucracy.

September existing home sales fell 3.5% year-over-year to the lowest level since October 2010 (!!!!)

US home sales are on track for their worst year since 1995 (!!!!!)

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) October 23, 2024

Rates are still higher than people expect (because they were abnormally low for so long) and sellers are still asking premium for homes. I know. We are looking every day.

Short answer to OP: Bidenflation. The truth is more complex but that sums it up pretty well.