Why can't young people afford houses?

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nein51
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cowboycwr said:

nein51 said:

Youre a clown said:

nein51 said:

boognish_bear said:

nein51 said:

boognish_bear said:



Lol no they aren't. You think a regular home is expensive try an RV.


If you don't mind a slight chemical smell you can get a good deal on a used one...



True if you don't care how often it moves. They cost a fortune to maintain and good ones cost more than a house…sometimes by a lot.


My in-laws have one that just sits on their property that they can't afford to do anything with. Was a nice RV at one point, but it had some serious issues, and they paid a crackhead relative of theirs that fixes RVs to try to repair it on the cheap, and he made it worse. Lol
I own a Freightliner MT55. An oil change and an air filter with a PM service is over $1,000. A turbo is around $9,000 replaced. The running joke is that it costs $4,000 to stop in there. Which is not a joke.

Pusher RVs cost well more than my MT55 to maintain and that's without all the upfit garbage work.

A new pusher will set you back more than my 10 acre farm cost and if it's a nice one it might set you back near double, triple if it's a top end model.


Is this tropical with motorized RVs? I have a former coworker that retired, bought a bus rv with her husband and they have been driving the country for a few years seeing all the national parks, tourist stops and college football stadiums. They post all the time about where they are and talk about regular maintenance but never seem to complain about it breaking down or other issues.

But I have heard some people complain the rvs are bad at maintenance but to me it has also seemed they let it sit for months without driving them. To me sitting for months seems to be part of the issue. That would be fine for the trailers but not engines.

Travel trailers; bumper pulls or 5th wheels are a constant cavalcade of broken up fit items. Fridge doesn't work, pull outs don't move, lights and stove stop working. But the overall maintenance is more about the tow vehicle.

Pushers; engine in the rear RVs and busses, are maintenance nightmares. The average cost for fuel and maintenance is $1 per mile driven or more. Those are class 8s chassis and engines/transmissions (like a PACCAR MX with a commercial Allison).

RV; front engine, tend to be less maintenance and expense. You have all the problems a travel trailer has but, generally, those are medium duty trucks/frames. So a lot of those are 6.7ISB Cummins with a medium duty Allison like a RAM 3500/4500/5500.

As a rule people that can afford pushers, where a used nice Prevost can cost $850,000 and a put away wet 10 year old Entegra is $300,000, can afford the maintenance.

For reference on a front engine (say Freightliner M2 or Kenworth T280) 6.7 ISB a turbo swap (which fail constantly) is going to cost you $9,000+, engine failure is going to be a $25,000+ invoice, DEF Header will run at least $5,000, new tires which are around a 40,000 mile proposition will get you back at least $3,500 and can be as much as $5000-$6,000. Oil changes start around $400, fuel filters will run another $300, air filter is around $200, on and on and on.

The belt tensioner on mine failed recently. Required a belt, tensioner and it cut the harness to the fan clutch when it failed. The parts at Cummins cost were around $1800 plus 4 hours. For a retail customer that would have been a $3,000 bill plus a $400 tow or an $800 service call. My truck has 33,000 miles on it.
cowboycwr
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nein51 said:

cowboycwr said:

nein51 said:

cowboycwr said:

nein51 said:

boognish_bear said:



Lol no they aren't. You think a regular home is expensive try an RV.


Yea it is. I think this claim is also including RVs and trailers as one. More and more people are buying or even renting rvs. Not the nice new bus ones but the older models. Most of them park and don't move again.

I'm not saying that .01% of people aren't doing that. But it's such an insignificant number it's not even funny. It's laughable that someone wrote that article and someone published it. There are 350,000,000 Americans give or take and we have to be talking about a few thousand at most.

The build quality of an RV is so bad the ones that do it probably won't be doing it long lol.


So a quick google search brought up two different numbers and I didn't feel like diving further but one number was 450,000 but seemed to only count working rvs and another number was 1.1 million in rvs, vans or trailers working or non working.

So it seems higher than you thought but still not an epidemic. But both sources have said the number has increased rapidly, with one saying the number doubled in less than a decade.

Drive by an rv park and they are always full and not just with weekend campers. Lots of them seem to stay a long time.

That's all of the units on the road. Not people that bought them as a home. People that bought them because they couldn't afford a home is a fractional number of those numbers. There are plenty of Americans that live in RVs and travel trailers. Ohio, Michigan, New York and Texas/Florida/Arizona are full of them. But the number of people who are living in them because they can't afford a home is just not very large.


Again no a quick google search shows you are wrong. One of the first articles talked specifically about people living in rvs, vans, trailers etc full time and had no house or apartment. That was the larger number I gave earlier.
boognish_bear
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It's happening

sombear
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boognish_bear said:

It's happening



There's a very large rental house neighborhood I pass by on my home from work. New construction; pretty nice area. 2 months ago, they advertised rent starting at $1999. Now it's $1499.
FLBear5630
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boognish_bear said:

It's happening



As we said, it is cyclical. You buy when the price is down. This is called opportunity. Where are you young people?????
boognish_bear
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Are home interest rates still coming down also? I know in September they came down some.
FLBear5630
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boognish_bear said:

Are home interest rates still coming down also? I know in September they came down some.

Down? Are you talking historically? Yes, they are lower than we saw in the 80's and 90's when most of us "Boomers", you know the cause of all badness in the world, bought our first homes. Are they lower than historic lows during the pandemic? No.
boognish_bear
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FLBear5630 said:

boognish_bear said:

Are home interest rates still coming down also? I know in September they came down some.

Down? Are you talking historically? Yes, they are lower than we saw in the 80's and 90's when most of us "Boomers", you know the cause of all badness in the world, bought our first homes. Are they lower than historic lows during the pandemic? No.


I'm GenX...so I guess I'll be in the future bad guy generation
muddybrazos
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sombear said:

boognish_bear said:

It's happening



There's a very large rental house neighborhood I pass by on my home from work. New construction; pretty nice area. 2 months ago, they advertised rent starting at $1999. Now it's $1499.

Thats very cheap for a whole house. A gal in my office is trying to find a 2br apartment rental around here for 2k. A house on my street is for rent for 4k as well and its not the nicest house imo.
FLBear5630
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boognish_bear said:

FLBear5630 said:

boognish_bear said:

Are home interest rates still coming down also? I know in September they came down some.

Down? Are you talking historically? Yes, they are lower than we saw in the 80's and 90's when most of us "Boomers", you know the cause of all badness in the world, bought our first homes. Are they lower than historic lows during the pandemic? No.


I'm GenX...so I guess I'll be in the future bad guy generation

Yeah, your kids and kids contemporaries will blame you for all the angst of the world.
muddybrazos
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FLBear5630 said:

boognish_bear said:

FLBear5630 said:

boognish_bear said:

Are home interest rates still coming down also? I know in September they came down some.

Down? Are you talking historically? Yes, they are lower than we saw in the 80's and 90's when most of us "Boomers", you know the cause of all badness in the world, bought our first homes. Are they lower than historic lows during the pandemic? No.


I'm GenX...so I guess I'll be in the future bad guy generation

Yeah, your kids and kids contemporaries will blame you for all the angst of the world.

I dont think we GenX are going to get much crap. The kids are going to blame millennials and TBH millennials deserve all they crap.
nein51
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muddybrazos said:

FLBear5630 said:

boognish_bear said:

FLBear5630 said:

boognish_bear said:

Are home interest rates still coming down also? I know in September they came down some.

Down? Are you talking historically? Yes, they are lower than we saw in the 80's and 90's when most of us "Boomers", you know the cause of all badness in the world, bought our first homes. Are they lower than historic lows during the pandemic? No.


I'm GenX...so I guess I'll be in the future bad guy generation

Yeah, your kids and kids contemporaries will blame you for all the angst of the world.

I dont think we GenX are going to get much crap. The kids are going to blame millennials and TBH millennials deserve all they crap.

Tbh the parents of millennials deserve all the crap. Those kids didn't pop out insufferable.
muddybrazos
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nein51 said:

muddybrazos said:

FLBear5630 said:

boognish_bear said:

FLBear5630 said:

boognish_bear said:

Are home interest rates still coming down also? I know in September they came down some.

Down? Are you talking historically? Yes, they are lower than we saw in the 80's and 90's when most of us "Boomers", you know the cause of all badness in the world, bought our first homes. Are they lower than historic lows during the pandemic? No.


I'm GenX...so I guess I'll be in the future bad guy generation

Yeah, your kids and kids contemporaries will blame you for all the angst of the world.

I dont think we GenX are going to get much crap. The kids are going to blame millennials and TBH millennials deserve all they crap.

Tbh the parents of millennials deserve all the crap. Those kids didn't pop out insufferable.

Not that we are trying to dogpile the boomers any more than we already do but that would be them.
Redbrickbear
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FLBear5630 said:

boognish_bear said:

It's happening



As we said, it is cyclical. You buy when the price is down. This is called opportunity. Where are you young people?????


Unfortunately we aborted millions of them

From a purely economic point of view maybe it was not a good idea to kill millions of future workers, producers, consumers, and home buyers.....

[Since the Roe v. Wade decision in 1973, there have been an estimated 63 million abortions in the U.S., according to the Guttmacher Institute. The number of abortions rose for several years after 1973, peaked in the late 1980s/early 1990s]
sombear
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muddybrazos said:

sombear said:

boognish_bear said:

It's happening



There's a very large rental house neighborhood I pass by on my home from work. New construction; pretty nice area. 2 months ago, they advertised rent starting at $1999. Now it's $1499.

Thats very cheap for a whole house. A gal in my office is trying to find a 2br apartment rental around here for 2k. A house on my street is for rent for 4k as well and its not the nicest house imo.

Yes, very cheap. Keep in mind, though, I haven't driven back there, and I'm always leery when I see "starting at." Perhaps some are duplexes, for example. Regardless, seems cheap.
RD2WINAGNBEAR86
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muddybrazos said:

nein51 said:

muddybrazos said:

FLBear5630 said:

boognish_bear said:

FLBear5630 said:

boognish_bear said:

Are home interest rates still coming down also? I know in September they came down some.

Down? Are you talking historically? Yes, they are lower than we saw in the 80's and 90's when most of us "Boomers", you know the cause of all badness in the world, bought our first homes. Are they lower than historic lows during the pandemic? No.


I'm GenX...so I guess I'll be in the future bad guy generation

Yeah, your kids and kids contemporaries will blame you for all the angst of the world.

I dont think we GenX are going to get much crap. The kids are going to blame millennials and TBH millennials deserve all they crap.

Tbh the parents of millennials deserve all the crap. Those kids didn't pop out insufferable.

Not that we are trying to dogpile the boomers any more than we already do but that would be them.

Maybe them youngins should spend some of that cryptocurrency fortune they have amassed and buy themselves a house? The worm has turned in the real estate market for those that have cash. Definitely a buyer's market again.
Call it a tax, the people are outraged! Call it a tariff, the people get out their checkbooks and wave their American flags!!!
boognish_bear
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nein51
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I would love a 25% crash in Miami so I could snag my forever home down there
FLBear5630
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nein51 said:

I would love a 25% crash in Miami so I could snag my forever home down there

I would love an interest rate reduction to re-finance mine, one more shot at 3%...
nein51
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FLBear5630 said:

nein51 said:

I would love a 25% crash in Miami so I could snag my forever home down there

I would love an interest rate reduction to re-finance mine, one more shot at 3%...

Can't have interest rate reductions and a market crash as one corrects the other. Probably better for most people to have the interest rate reduction. I'm being selfish.
Redbrickbear
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FLBear5630
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nein51 said:

FLBear5630 said:

nein51 said:

I would love a 25% crash in Miami so I could snag my forever home down there

I would love an interest rate reduction to re-finance mine, one more shot at 3%...

Can't have interest rate reductions and a market crash as one corrects the other. Probably better for most people to have the interest rate reduction. I'm being selfish.

Can't is a strong word, I would say it is not normal. But, you have a President that does not care about economic rules, he wants low interest rates, he will get them. Hopefully. Your mistake is trying to apply logic to Trump, it is all based on what he believes, not actual data.

So, you go and get your house in Miami WITH low interest rates...
boognish_bear
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4th and Inches
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boognish_bear said:


due to child tax credits, alot of families are paying limited taxes

But i like the idea if the goal is to grow birth rate
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boognish_bear
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nein51
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4th and Inches said:

boognish_bear said:


due to child tax credits, alot of families are paying limited taxes

But i like the idea if the goal is to grow birth rate

Poland has done all sorts of innovative things to grow the birth rate. None have worked.
FLBear5630
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nein51 said:

4th and Inches said:

boognish_bear said:


due to child tax credits, alot of families are paying limited taxes

But i like the idea if the goal is to grow birth rate

Poland has done all sorts of innovative things to grow the birth rate. None have worked.


still got to stay in Poland, cant get around that.
boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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EatMoreSalmon
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boognish_bear said:




Does that include the homes nobody lives in?

boognish_bear
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Nature is healing?

nein51
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There shouldn't be institutional investors in homes.
Redbrickbear
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muddybrazos said:

FLBear5630 said:

boognish_bear said:

FLBear5630 said:

boognish_bear said:

Are home interest rates still coming down also? I know in September they came down some.

Down? Are you talking historically? Yes, they are lower than we saw in the 80's and 90's when most of us "Boomers", you know the cause of all badness in the world, bought our first homes. Are they lower than historic lows during the pandemic? No.


I'm GenX...so I guess I'll be in the future bad guy generation

Yeah, your kids and kids contemporaries will blame you for all the angst of the world.

I dont think we GenX are going to get much crap. The kids are going to blame millennials and TBH millennials deserve all they crap.


GenX will end up being the real "silent generation"

They will hit retirement age before the Boomers give up power.

And the millennials will be there to snatch the reins.

Trump and JD Vance show this dynamic

Redbrickbear
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EatMoreSalmon said:

boognish_bear said:




Does that include the homes nobody lives in?




They also don't live in "homes"…they live in apartments

So a much accurate headline would be that most Chinese now own their own apartment unit.

[A large portion of the country's population resides in high-rise residential buildings, with estimates suggesting that 80% to 90% of urban households live in apartments. This is due to rapid urbanization, high population density in cities, and a massive construction boom in apartment complexes… ]

China has 1.4 billion people who mostly live on the coastal East, there's just not enough space for every Chinese citizen to own a home in suburbia that is 2,500 sqft and has two car garage.

America has not only been historically richer…we are much more spread out across the whole country than China geographically to our advantage.






Realitybites
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boognish_bear said:

Are home interest rates still coming down also? I know in September they came down some.


I would not expect interest rates to come down much. The rates on a 30 year fixed mortgage will tend to follow the 30 year treasury, not the t-bill...and next year, my suspicion is that as rates get cut, bond vigilantes are going to take a flamethrower to the market value of 30 year debt to drive yields to maturity higher.

If you are buying a home right now you have to be patient and find the right home in the right location at the right price owned by the right seller. There is a lot of airbnb inventory on the market right now that is priced 20%-35% above what a rational *list* price is. Ignore those listings.

Real estate is like fishing. You've got sellers (who want or need to sell because of circumstances) and anglers (who are trying to book profits). You need to be a predatory buyer and find the sellers.

I am closing on a property in a week. Found a flipper who ran out of funds. Got it for 32% below ask, understanding that in a 2008 scenario there might be another say 10% to the downside...which I was willing to tolerate because it was in the right location. But this was at the tail end of a 7 month long hunt.
 
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