Why can't young people afford houses?

109,495 Views | 1362 Replies | Last: 4 days ago by boognish_bear
Realitybites
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whiterock said:

Realitybites said:

He is just brainstorming. It is unrealistic to maintain the terms of a loan when the collateralized asset changes along with possibly the income and creditworthiness of the borrower. Not going to happen, and if it does, look out 2008.

The 50 year mortgage is also a bad idea. Why would you take own the costs of ownership on a loan structured in such a way that equity would build at a crawl? Rent and invest in something with more reasonable carrying costs.

Valid point, but equally valid is this: the vast majority of equity generated at sale of the average residence is from appreciation in value, not from amortization of debt.

A 50-yr mortgage might make sense as a short-term solution for first-time buyers in strong markets.


That equity data was from a century of 7, 15, and 30 year mortgages over a century of historic depreciation in the value of the dollar. There is no reason to believe that it would hold true for a 50 year loan in a fourth turning environment.
whiterock
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Realitybites said:

whiterock said:

Realitybites said:

He is just brainstorming. It is unrealistic to maintain the terms of a loan when the collateralized asset changes along with possibly the income and creditworthiness of the borrower. Not going to happen, and if it does, look out 2008.

The 50 year mortgage is also a bad idea. Why would you take own the costs of ownership on a loan structured in such a way that equity would build at a crawl? Rent and invest in something with more reasonable carrying costs.

Valid point, but equally valid is this: the vast majority of equity generated at sale of the average residence is from appreciation in value, not from amortization of debt.

A 50-yr mortgage might make sense as a short-term solution for first-time buyers in strong markets.


That equity data was from a century of 7, 15, and 30 year mortgages over a century of historic depreciation in the value of the dollar. There is no reason to believe that it would hold true for a 50 year loan in a fourth turning environment.

do you expect us to balance our budget? If not, then expect more depreciation in the value of our currency.

do you expect major cities to engage in massive tax and regulatory reforms leading to lower home-building costs? If not, then expect supply/demand driven appreciation in costs of housing in those markets.

again, not trying to universally justify the wisdom of 50yr mortgages as a panacea, or even a significant component of a solution to the problem.. Just trying to point out they may have some applications in some markets for some people.
FLBear5630
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nein51 said:

FLBear5630 said:

nein51 said:

Save for South Florida, Phoenix and parts of Texas

Florida in general. We are seeing 1000 a day moving in. The growth is incredible

As I get older I get why. We are heading to Miami next week. My skin will be better, my joints are better, the hair is better…I understand why old people move there in droves.

I agree. We feel better here than up north. I have been here long enough that I prefer 90's to 60's

I find living in the heat is worth losing 10 pounds. You may drop 10 due to temperature, if is just uncomfortable if you are heavy in 90's...
boognish_bear
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EatMoreSalmon
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boognish_bear said:




When did Barney Frank gain back influence?
Redbrickbear
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boognish_bear
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Redbrickbear
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Austin is going to be a building boom place for a long time


nein51
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Austin is the next Seattle. In almost no time Texas is going to heavily lament what went on leading up to it. It's Portland, Seattle, San Francisco…it's in Texas but it's not Texas.
RD2WINAGNBEAR86
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nein51 said:

Austin is the next Seattle. In almost no time Texas is going to heavily lament what went on leading up to it. It's Portland, Seattle, San Francisco…it's in Texas but it's not Texas.

I sure hope not. We live 50 miles Southwest of Austin. I reckon the bumper sticker KEEP AUSTIN WEIRD is more appropriate now than ever.
Call it a tax, the people are outraged! Call it a tariff, the people get out their checkbooks and wave their American flags!!!
cowboycwr
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Redbrickbear said:

Austin is going to be a building boom place for a long time





I'm actually surprised at Dallas being that high.

I say that because last week some friends and I were looking at the high school playoff brackets for all classifications and also talking about the rumors for realignment coming in February. One of the things we talked about was how many schools in the city limits/city ISDs (Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Fort Worth, etc) were 5a or even 4A and had falling enrollments while so many suburbs were exploding and moving up.
J.R.
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boognish_bear said:



but then you would have to live in Frisco! ew
Redbrickbear
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Redbrickbear
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boognish_bear
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Realitybites
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Redbrickbear said:




Exactly this. In most such neighborhoods there are going to be issues regarding violent crime, assault, robbery, and drugs unimaginable to the residents of those neigborhoods in the 50s and 60s.
nein51
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Realitybites said:

Redbrickbear said:




Exactly this. In most such neighborhoods there are going to be issues regarding violent crime, assault, robbery, and drugs unimaginable to the residents of those neigborhoods in the 50s and 60s.

If you want housing to be affordable then it has to shrink. By a lot. You're not going to get 3,000 sq Ft homes in the nicest parts of town to be affordable.

I also spent the last 13 years in a 1900 sqft house in an area we described at ghetto adjacent. In 13 years my car window was broken once.

Thats the progression; smaller home, less nice neighborhood, kid, second kid, slightly larger home in slightly nicer neighborhood, nicer home in nice neighborhood, kids leave and you either downsize to a nice home in a very nice neighborhood or you buy what you always wanted.

Why do younger people think they are entitled to skip 3-4 steps to that process?
cowboycwr
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nein51 said:

Realitybites said:

Redbrickbear said:




Exactly this. In most such neighborhoods there are going to be issues regarding violent crime, assault, robbery, and drugs unimaginable to the residents of those neigborhoods in the 50s and 60s.

If you want housing to be affordable then it has to shrink. By a lot. You're not going to get 3,000 sq Ft homes in the nicest parts of town to be affordable.

I also spent the last 13 years in a 1900 sqft house in an area we described at ghetto adjacent. In 13 years my car window was broken once.

Thats the progression; smaller home, less nice neighborhood, kid, second kid, slightly larger home in slightly nicer neighborhood, nicer home in nice neighborhood, kids leave and you either downsize to a nice home in a very nice neighborhood or you buy what you always wanted.

Why do younger people think they are entitled to skip 3-4 steps to that process?


While there are some that want to skip steps there are also lots that do not and are trying to find a regular size home (1,500- 2,000) sq ft starter home but with the prices how they are they can't find that in safe areas, good schools, etc. And it isn't just housing costs it is costs of everything else on top of the cost of the home.

I think there are also a lot of people that don't get this starter home idea. They want to find a home. And stay. Like their grandparents or great grandparents did.

Again while there are some saying they want to skip and just go to the 3,000 sq ft house, acre lot, out a bit or in an upscale neighborhood much of the complaint nationwide is that young people cannot afford even starter homes in decent areas with the costs of everything else on top of the house.
nein51
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Your parents didn't stay in one house either. And it's unlikely your grandparents did. Your great grandparents did but people were far less mobile then.

Your bare entry level is going to be $100/sq ft and it's going to be cheaply built at that or it's going to be very remote.

We travel a lot. We are in Miami right now. I probably couldn't afford to buy in the neighborhood I'm renting right now. I could afford to buy in a whole bunch of other areas and if I wanted to move here badly enough that is what I would have to do.
FLBear5630
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cowboycwr said:

nein51 said:

Realitybites said:

Redbrickbear said:




Exactly this. In most such neighborhoods there are going to be issues regarding violent crime, assault, robbery, and drugs unimaginable to the residents of those neigborhoods in the 50s and 60s.

If you want housing to be affordable then it has to shrink. By a lot. You're not going to get 3,000 sq Ft homes in the nicest parts of town to be affordable.

I also spent the last 13 years in a 1900 sqft house in an area we described at ghetto adjacent. In 13 years my car window was broken once.

Thats the progression; smaller home, less nice neighborhood, kid, second kid, slightly larger home in slightly nicer neighborhood, nicer home in nice neighborhood, kids leave and you either downsize to a nice home in a very nice neighborhood or you buy what you always wanted.

Why do younger people think they are entitled to skip 3-4 steps to that process?


While there are some that want to skip steps there are also lots that do not and are trying to find a regular size home (1,500- 2,000) sq ft starter home but with the prices how they are they can't find that in safe areas, good schools, etc. And it isn't just housing costs it is costs of everything else on top of the cost of the home.

I think there are also a lot of people that don't get this starter home idea. They want to find a home. And stay. Like their grandparents or great grandparents did.

Again while there are some saying they want to skip and just go to the 3,000 sq ft house, acre lot, out a bit or in an upscale neighborhood much of the complaint nationwide is that young people cannot afford even starter homes in decent areas with the costs of everything else on top of the house.

Who lived in a decent area with their first or even second home? I was born and spent my childhood in the same area that Eddie Murphy's Coming to America was filmed, Queens NY. Until my Dad could afford to move to Long Island and a nice suburb. That was the 60's and 70's. It has been that way since WW2. Nobody buys their first house in great areas. I would venture that the percentage is higher today than it was in the 80's and 90's.

boognish_bear
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nein51
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He's got it right. We need a total ban on institutional home ownership. Blackrock shouldn't get rich flipping homes or simply holding an asset and letting it appreciate.

When the time comes we need to add that back to the mix then you open it up again.
cowboycwr
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nein51 said:

Your parents didn't stay in one house either. And it's unlikely your grandparents did. Your great grandparents did but people were far less mobile then.

Your bare entry level is going to be $100/sq ft and it's going to be cheaply built at that or it's going to be very remote.

We travel a lot. We are in Miami right now. I probably couldn't afford to buy in the neighborhood I'm renting right now. I could afford to buy in a whole bunch of other areas and if I wanted to move here badly enough that is what I would have to do.


My parents lived in two houses. And the one move was for job purposes to a different location.

They then moved after us kids were gone.

My grandparents livid in one house until they died and now my uncle lives there.

And you just proved the point. That people can't afford a house in many areas because the prices are too high and the "starter" homes are poorly made.
cowboycwr
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FLBear5630 said:

cowboycwr said:

nein51 said:

Realitybites said:

Redbrickbear said:




Exactly this. In most such neighborhoods there are going to be issues regarding violent crime, assault, robbery, and drugs unimaginable to the residents of those neigborhoods in the 50s and 60s.

If you want housing to be affordable then it has to shrink. By a lot. You're not going to get 3,000 sq Ft homes in the nicest parts of town to be affordable.

I also spent the last 13 years in a 1900 sqft house in an area we described at ghetto adjacent. In 13 years my car window was broken once.

Thats the progression; smaller home, less nice neighborhood, kid, second kid, slightly larger home in slightly nicer neighborhood, nicer home in nice neighborhood, kids leave and you either downsize to a nice home in a very nice neighborhood or you buy what you always wanted.

Why do younger people think they are entitled to skip 3-4 steps to that process?


While there are some that want to skip steps there are also lots that do not and are trying to find a regular size home (1,500- 2,000) sq ft starter home but with the prices how they are they can't find that in safe areas, good schools, etc. And it isn't just housing costs it is costs of everything else on top of the cost of the home.

I think there are also a lot of people that don't get this starter home idea. They want to find a home. And stay. Like their grandparents or great grandparents did.

Again while there are some saying they want to skip and just go to the 3,000 sq ft house, acre lot, out a bit or in an upscale neighborhood much of the complaint nationwide is that young people cannot afford even starter homes in decent areas with the costs of everything else on top of the house.

Who lived in a decent area with their first or even second home? I was born and spent my childhood in the same area that Eddie Murphy's Coming to America was filmed, Queens NY. Until my Dad could afford to move to Long Island and a nice suburb. That was the 60's and 70's. It has been that way since WW2. Nobody buys their first house in great areas. I would venture that the percentage is higher today than it was in the 80's and 90's.




Lots of people.
FLBear5630
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cowboycwr said:

FLBear5630 said:

cowboycwr said:

nein51 said:

Realitybites said:

Redbrickbear said:




Exactly this. In most such neighborhoods there are going to be issues regarding violent crime, assault, robbery, and drugs unimaginable to the residents of those neigborhoods in the 50s and 60s.

If you want housing to be affordable then it has to shrink. By a lot. You're not going to get 3,000 sq Ft homes in the nicest parts of town to be affordable.

I also spent the last 13 years in a 1900 sqft house in an area we described at ghetto adjacent. In 13 years my car window was broken once.

Thats the progression; smaller home, less nice neighborhood, kid, second kid, slightly larger home in slightly nicer neighborhood, nicer home in nice neighborhood, kids leave and you either downsize to a nice home in a very nice neighborhood or you buy what you always wanted.

Why do younger people think they are entitled to skip 3-4 steps to that process?


While there are some that want to skip steps there are also lots that do not and are trying to find a regular size home (1,500- 2,000) sq ft starter home but with the prices how they are they can't find that in safe areas, good schools, etc. And it isn't just housing costs it is costs of everything else on top of the cost of the home.

I think there are also a lot of people that don't get this starter home idea. They want to find a home. And stay. Like their grandparents or great grandparents did.

Again while there are some saying they want to skip and just go to the 3,000 sq ft house, acre lot, out a bit or in an upscale neighborhood much of the complaint nationwide is that young people cannot afford even starter homes in decent areas with the costs of everything else on top of the house.

Who lived in a decent area with their first or even second home? I was born and spent my childhood in the same area that Eddie Murphy's Coming to America was filmed, Queens NY. Until my Dad could afford to move to Long Island and a nice suburb. That was the 60's and 70's. It has been that way since WW2. Nobody buys their first house in great areas. I would venture that the percentage is higher today than it was in the 80's and 90's.




Lots of people.


well you want to live in top job markets, you are paying.
Realitybites
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Quote:


I also spent the last 13 years in a 1900 sqft house in an area we described at ghetto adjacent. In 13 years my car window was broken once.



Good for you, but responsible young families with children aren't going to make that choice and live next to your ghetto adjacent neighbors or send their kids to schools infested with hood rats.

And "not great areas" in the 1960s had a completely different meaning than "not great areas" in 2025.

This Boomer-era naval gazing has to end.
nein51
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Realitybites said:

Quote:


I also spent the last 13 years in a 1900 sqft house in an area we described at ghetto adjacent. In 13 years my car window was broken once.



Good for you, but responsible young families with children aren't going to make that choice and live next to your ghetto adjacent neighbors or send their kids to schools infested with hood rats.

And "not great areas" in the 1960s had a completely different meaning than "not great areas" in 2025.

Then "responsible families" (of which I guess I'm not) are going to have to live in an apartment.

It's not that hard. If you want to live in the best school districts you're going to pay more, maybe substantially more.

My kid did online school because he was going back and forth between houses. He's a freshman at Akrons engineering program and seems to be doing just fine.

And not they didn't. Unless you mean "not great areas" were full of white immigrants instead of black people. Otherwise crime is crime.

This myth that big houses on acre plots in great neighborhoods were affordable when our parents bought homes is hilarious.

And I'm 47 FTR. Not a boomer.
Realitybites
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You're boomer adjacent. For some reason, there are those in our generation who maintained the previous generation's blind spots without taking a full accounting of the changes they saw happening around them.

Nobody is talking about affording a McMansion on an acreage as a first home. Yes, the importation and settlement of large, often violent third world populations in various neighborhoods in our cities has contributed to the problem. This crime problem has even occurred in places like the Cayman Islands where the native population is black, and the newcomers (Jamaicans) are also black.

Your knee jerk reaction to try and make it about race is...informative.
nein51
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Realitybites said:

You're boomer adjacent. For some reason, there are those in our generation who maintained the previous generation's blind spots without taking a full accounting of the changes they saw happening around them.

Nobody is talking about affording a McMansion on an acreage as a first home. Yes, the importation and settlement of large, often violent third world populations in various neighborhoods in our cities has contributed to the problem.

The youngest boomers are in their early 60s. The oldest are almost 80.

Just to be clear; you want good schools and houses bigger than 1500 sq ft but you want that for some mythical "affordable" number.

Can you at least tell me what "affordable" is both in home price and monthly payment?
whiterock
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nein51 said:

Realitybites said:

Redbrickbear said:




Exactly this. In most such neighborhoods there are going to be issues regarding violent crime, assault, robbery, and drugs unimaginable to the residents of those neigborhoods in the 50s and 60s.

If you want housing to be affordable then it has to shrink. By a lot. You're not going to get 3,000 sq Ft homes in the nicest parts of town to be affordable.

I also spent the last 13 years in a 1900 sqft house in an area we described at ghetto adjacent. In 13 years my car window was broken once.

Thats the progression; smaller home, less nice neighborhood, kid, second kid, slightly larger home in slightly nicer neighborhood, nicer home in nice neighborhood, kids leave and you either downsize to a nice home in a very nice neighborhood or you buy what you always wanted.

Why do younger people think they are entitled to skip 3-4 steps to that process?

your comment in bold hints at a quick and relatively cost-effective policy response - fixing the crime problem expands the pool of housing suitable for young families to buy less-expensive starter homes.
nein51
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whiterock said:

nein51 said:

Realitybites said:

Redbrickbear said:




Exactly this. In most such neighborhoods there are going to be issues regarding violent crime, assault, robbery, and drugs unimaginable to the residents of those neigborhoods in the 50s and 60s.

If you want housing to be affordable then it has to shrink. By a lot. You're not going to get 3,000 sq Ft homes in the nicest parts of town to be affordable.

I also spent the last 13 years in a 1900 sqft house in an area we described at ghetto adjacent. In 13 years my car window was broken once.

Thats the progression; smaller home, less nice neighborhood, kid, second kid, slightly larger home in slightly nicer neighborhood, nicer home in nice neighborhood, kids leave and you either downsize to a nice home in a very nice neighborhood or you buy what you always wanted.

Why do younger people think they are entitled to skip 3-4 steps to that process?

your comment in bold hints at a quick and relatively cost-effective policy response - fixing the crime problem expands the pool of housing suitable for young families to buy less-expensive starter homes.

I would argue that if the worst thing that happens is a car window gets broken it's an awfully safe neighborhood, regardless of its proximity to a rough part of town.
Realitybites
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nein51 said:

Just to be clear; you want good schools and houses bigger than 1500 sq ft but you want that for some mythical "affordable" number.


That's not what we're talking about at all.

We're talking about 1200-1500 square foot ranch usually 3/2 homes, but possibly 2/2 homes in neighborhoods in places where the parents can work and the kids can go to school without being shot, raped, or mugged.

You know, the sorts of places that the greatest generation bought for 30k on a 7 year mortagage and the boomers grew up in.

Nothing fancy.
nein51
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Realitybites said:

nein51 said:

Just to be clear; you want good schools and houses bigger than 1500 sq ft but you want that for some mythical "affordable" number.


That's not what we're talking about at all.

We're talking about 1200-1500 square foot ranch usually 3/2 homes, but possibly 2/2 homes in neighborhoods in places where the parents can work and the kids can go to school without being shot, raped, or mugged.

You know, the sorts of places that the greatest generation bought for 30k on a 7 year mortagage and the boomers grew up in.

Nothing fancy.

Those places aren't being built because they don't sell. This is the same as people saying they want base model cars with manual windows and when manufacturers build those they can't give them away.

But, again, can you give me what "affordable" means in terms of home sale price and monthly payment?

Please note: Greatest generation was between 1901 and 1927. So let's assume most purchased homes around 1940. $30,000 in 1940 is $695k today. The FHA was established in 1934. 15-20 year mortgages were fairly common and the 30 year became available in the 50s and the norm by the 60s. Prior to that most loans were interest only with a balloon payment that typically required refinancing. The depression put a halt to that.

Also; Boomers didn't grow up in those homes. Silent generation did. Those homes would have been owned by boomers grandparents. By the time Boomers were growing up most homes were at least 20 year mortgages or longer. When the 30 year became available most required a 20% down payment or more.
cowboycwr
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nein51 said:

Realitybites said:

nein51 said:

Just to be clear; you want good schools and houses bigger than 1500 sq ft but you want that for some mythical "affordable" number.


That's not what we're talking about at all.

We're talking about 1200-1500 square foot ranch usually 3/2 homes, but possibly 2/2 homes in neighborhoods in places where the parents can work and the kids can go to school without being shot, raped, or mugged.

You know, the sorts of places that the greatest generation bought for 30k on a 7 year mortagage and the boomers grew up in.

Nothing fancy.

Those places aren't being built because they don't sell. This is the same as people saying they want base model cars with manual windows and when manufacturers build those they can't give them away.

But, again, can you give me what "affordable" means in terms of home sale price and monthly payment?

Please note: Greatest generation was between 1901 and 1927. So let's assume most purchased homes around 1940. $30,000 in 1940 is $695k today. The FHA was established in 1934. 15-20 year mortgages were fairly common and the 30 year became available in the 50s and the norm by the 60s. Prior to that most loans were interest only with a balloon payment that typically required refinancing. The depression put a halt to that.

Also; Boomers didn't grow up in those homes. Silent generation did. Those homes would have been owned by boomers grandparents. By the time Boomers were growing up most homes were at least 20 year mortgages or longer. When the 30 year became available most required a 20% down payment or more.


They do still build those. There are entire neighborhoods of those being built in ft worth.

And the greatest generation didn't buy their houses until post WW2 with the explosion of the suburbs, GI bill and economic boom.

So yes the boomers did grow up in those houses.
FLBear5630
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cowboycwr said:

nein51 said:

Realitybites said:

nein51 said:

Just to be clear; you want good schools and houses bigger than 1500 sq ft but you want that for some mythical "affordable" number.


That's not what we're talking about at all.

We're talking about 1200-1500 square foot ranch usually 3/2 homes, but possibly 2/2 homes in neighborhoods in places where the parents can work and the kids can go to school without being shot, raped, or mugged.

You know, the sorts of places that the greatest generation bought for 30k on a 7 year mortagage and the boomers grew up in.

Nothing fancy.

Those places aren't being built because they don't sell. This is the same as people saying they want base model cars with manual windows and when manufacturers build those they can't give them away.

But, again, can you give me what "affordable" means in terms of home sale price and monthly payment?

Please note: Greatest generation was between 1901 and 1927. So let's assume most purchased homes around 1940. $30,000 in 1940 is $695k today. The FHA was established in 1934. 15-20 year mortgages were fairly common and the 30 year became available in the 50s and the norm by the 60s. Prior to that most loans were interest only with a balloon payment that typically required refinancing. The depression put a halt to that.

Also; Boomers didn't grow up in those homes. Silent generation did. Those homes would have been owned by boomers grandparents. By the time Boomers were growing up most homes were at least 20 year mortgages or longer. When the 30 year became available most required a 20% down payment or more.


They do still build those. There are entire neighborhoods of those being built in ft worth.

And the greatest generation didn't buy their houses until post WW2 with the explosion of the suburbs, GI bill and economic boom.

So yes the boomers did grow up in those houses.


The percentage of people that stay in their childhood homes for life is minuscule. Maybe you are thinking of staying in the homes they raised their families in?

What do you define as big? Mine is 1600 ft, but in FL I can live out by the screened pool for 9 months a year. So, liveable space is much bigger than the 166 sf on a 1/4 acre lot. Our house is not considered big, at least not here. No way am I selling it, just got it like I like it.

So, I guess I don't get why you think people HAVE to sell their homes right when they got them paid off and/or renovated like they want.


 
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