Jack Bauer said:

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🚨BREAKING: Panama's President has ended the country's Panama Canal deal with China, immediately following a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Are we tired of winning yet?
pic.twitter.com/sOQJZJJc5E

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) February 2, 2025

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FLBear5630 said:

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Married A Horn said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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nein51 said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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nein51 said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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nein51 said:

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China has a much greater ability to manipulate their currency.
1) they are second only to the Dollar
2) they literally don't care about their own people so things like inflation, starvation and wealth of the general population mean 0

Canada simply doesn't hold that kind of power.

I do not understand what we are trying to accomplish here at all but Canada just doesn't have the bargaining strength China does.

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I agree in terms of leverage with the US. Leverage in where they get their goods in the future? That is where I see this going with both Mexico and Canada. Tariffs make the American product more competitive in our market. But it also makes Chinese and EU goods more competitive to the Canadians and Mexicans by offsetting transportation cost. Funny, a lot of times the way you go about something makes a lot of difference. The way Trump is doing it is making me say, I will be damned and pay more somewhere else rather than give you a win. Trump sometimes forgets money is not the only motivator...

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So on a personal level I agree. I have made a lot of purchases recently based on them being US made even though it was at much greater cost (try buying a U.S. made power inverter these days).

However, you and I are not the majority of consumers. Money is the primary motivator for probably 95% of all purchases.

I sell high end stuff and we do quite well. The only other company like ours seeing positive returns is a Chinese competitor that is killing our competition but selling sub par products. Customers don't care.

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So, in the bigger arena do the Canadian consumers get those choices? As you said, the customers don't care it is Chinese. If it is cheaper they could care less if it is US or Chinese. Will Canada cut deals they wouldn't have 10 years ago? I don't know. By interesting to see this play out.

Question, is it harder to win back a market after losing it or keeping it? Why do this?

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What is keeping them from buying those products from China now? I would venture the answer is nothing.

However Canada is land locked on the Southern Border where most of its population is. It's entirely possible that getting stuff from China into a Canadian port city then from the port to the retailer then to the consumer is simply too expensive.

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Canada has been a US Allie for a very long time. I would say we have set up a lot of trade based on convenience and hemisphere strength, such as pipelines. I do not think those things are very important anymore.

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Hey, would you mind getting on the calgary stampede boards and start railing against all of their triple digit tarrifs on us? Let us know how it goes.

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Seriously, what triple figure tariffs? See this is a discussion. I say something, u bring up reason why I am off base. I listen. Maybe I learn something, maybe you do. Been happening all the way and back to Socrates. No name calling.

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JUST IN: President Trump to hold talks with Canada and Mexico tomorrow to discuss tariffs.

— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) February 3, 2025

Quote:

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Recently:
The Trudeau government is celebrating what it's calling an absolute victory in its latest trade dispute with the United States over dairy imports.

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Married A Horn said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Married A Horn said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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nein51 said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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nein51 said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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nein51 said:

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China has a much greater ability to manipulate their currency.
1) they are second only to the Dollar
2) they literally don't care about their own people so things like inflation, starvation and wealth of the general population mean 0

Canada simply doesn't hold that kind of power.

I do not understand what we are trying to accomplish here at all but Canada just doesn't have the bargaining strength China does.

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I agree in terms of leverage with the US. Leverage in where they get their goods in the future? That is where I see this going with both Mexico and Canada. Tariffs make the American product more competitive in our market. But it also makes Chinese and EU goods more competitive to the Canadians and Mexicans by offsetting transportation cost. Funny, a lot of times the way you go about something makes a lot of difference. The way Trump is doing it is making me say, I will be damned and pay more somewhere else rather than give you a win. Trump sometimes forgets money is not the only motivator...

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So on a personal level I agree. I have made a lot of purchases recently based on them being US made even though it was at much greater cost (try buying a U.S. made power inverter these days).

However, you and I are not the majority of consumers. Money is the primary motivator for probably 95% of all purchases.

I sell high end stuff and we do quite well. The only other company like ours seeing positive returns is a Chinese competitor that is killing our competition but selling sub par products. Customers don't care.

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So, in the bigger arena do the Canadian consumers get those choices? As you said, the customers don't care it is Chinese. If it is cheaper they could care less if it is US or Chinese. Will Canada cut deals they wouldn't have 10 years ago? I don't know. By interesting to see this play out.

Question, is it harder to win back a market after losing it or keeping it? Why do this?

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What is keeping them from buying those products from China now? I would venture the answer is nothing.

However Canada is land locked on the Southern Border where most of its population is. It's entirely possible that getting stuff from China into a Canadian port city then from the port to the retailer then to the consumer is simply too expensive.

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Canada has been a US Allie for a very long time. I would say we have set up a lot of trade based on convenience and hemisphere strength, such as pipelines. I do not think those things are very important anymore.

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Hey, would you mind getting on the calgary stampede boards and start railing against all of their triple digit tarrifs on us? Let us know how it goes.

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Seriously, what triple figure tariffs? See this is a discussion. I say something, u bring up reason why I am off base. I listen. Maybe I learn something, maybe you do. Been happening all the way and back to Socrates. No name calling.

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Lots of dairy are around 300%. Poultry and other farm products. Vehicles made in the USA. Wood / lumber. Its not a fair system... they can impose tariffs and protections but we cant? Mexico is probably worse.

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Trump: "The UK is way out of line and we'll see. The UK, but European Union is really out of line. UK is out of line but I'm sure that one, I think that one can be worked out. But the European Union, it's an atrocity what they've done." pic.twitter.com/ewKn7cae0Q

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) February 3, 2025

BREAKING: Nvidia stock, $NVDA, falls over -6.5% as overnight markets open after tariffs were imposed.

The stock is now in bear market territory and down -27% from its all time high. pic.twitter.com/d0tSYOk2EB

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) February 3, 2025

MARKETS AT THE OPEN:

1. Dow Futures: -500 points
2. S&P 500 Futures: -120 points
3. Nasdaq 100 Futures: -600 points
4. WTI Crude: +3.5%
5. Natural Gas: +7.5%

The Volatility Index, $VIX, is set to open nearly 20% higher as the trade war has begun.

China disrupting AI and the…

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) February 2, 2025

boognish_bear said:

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Trump: "The UK is way out of line and we'll see. The UK, but European Union is really out of line. UK is out of line but I'm sure that one, I think that one can be worked out. But the European Union, it's an atrocity what they've done." pic.twitter.com/ewKn7cae0Q

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) February 3, 2025

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boognish_bear said:

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BREAKING: Nvidia stock, $NVDA, falls over -6.5% as overnight markets open after tariffs were imposed.

The stock is now in bear market territory and down -27% from its all time high. pic.twitter.com/d0tSYOk2EB

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) February 3, 2025

MARKETS AT THE OPEN:

1. Dow Futures: -500 points
2. S&P 500 Futures: -120 points
3. Nasdaq 100 Futures: -600 points
4. WTI Crude: +3.5%
5. Natural Gas: +7.5%

The Volatility Index, $VIX, is set to open nearly 20% higher as the trade war has begun.

China disrupting AI and the…

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) February 2, 2025

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Married A Horn said:

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I would like to know more on the Mexican tariffs. What do they charge on our exports to them?

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ATL Bear said:

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whiterock said:

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ATL Bear said:

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whiterock said:

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ATL Bear said:

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boognish_bear said:

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We won the last election by complaining about Democrats' policies, which gave us high prices. Tariff lovers will be forced to explain the persistence of high prices…https://t.co/1Tc9HdSEHi

— Rand Paul (@RandPaul) February 1, 2025

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Even worse it's a sales tax, meaning it will simply be transferred to consumers to foot the bill. And ironically, they're inflationary. Furthermore, these tariffs are at a level that doesn't even get close to bridging the comparative advantage cost and scale that drives import/export competitiveness. I mean China could flood the market with steel keeping the price low regardless of tariffs. Oh sure, we'll get a few swipes at allies to the north and Europe because they're in a comparable cost and regulatory swamp, but when you raise the cost of inputs, the first target companies go cost cutting at is labor.

Usually the long game is to incentivize and deregulate sectors so you can encourage the long term investments necessary to build the facilities and capacities to engineer a market supplier shift. But tariffs hit instantly and change the market dynamic and serve as an actual disincentive, particularly for labor expansion. It's not anti-MAGA, it's economics you can research from people like Milton Friedman.

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Funny no one very says the income tax is inflationary.
Funny no one says the SSN tax is inflationary.
Funny no one says state sales taxes are inflationary.
Funny no on says state property taxes are inflationary.

Government SPENDING is inflationary.

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That's because personal income tax is paid from earnings, and technically SSN is a pension payment. But corporate income taxes could be argued as inflationary. State sales taxes are post cost of goods. If we did a universal consumption tax/sales tax (as some argue for) we'd likely have a reduction in inflation. Government DEFICIT SPENDING is inflationary.

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If Government deficit spending is inflationary, then the taxation source to fund it is irrelevant.

How is a tariff on an imported Chinese beach ball any different than a state sales tax on that Chinese beach ball?

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Government deficit spending requires borrowing, which results in an increase in the money supply. This devalues currency, thus creating inflation on a range of things. If they only spend what they collect, they do not contribute to inflation.

A tariff creates cost-push inflation by increasing the cost of production. We literally spent four years complaining about cost push inflation during the Biden admin, and rightly so. Now it's somehow not a thing? And state sales tax isn't part of the cost of production. Europe's VAT tax scheme functions more like an inflationary sales tax.

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KaiBear said:

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Mexico is controlled by the drug cartels. The Mexican president is their puppet.

Short of going to war over all the fentanyl Mexico is smuggling into the United States……tariffs are the only answer to coerce Mexico into stopping these poisons.

Over 100,000 Americans are dying from overdoses each year.
Talk hasn't worked.

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Realitybites said:

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USAID Website Goes Dark As Trump Reportedly Plans To Shift Agency Under State Department

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/usaid-website-goes-dark-trump-reportedly-plans-shift-agency-under-state-department

"A post from Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) account on X clarified that USAID went on a woke spending spree in third-world countries...

At this point we need to end ALL foreign aid. Not a single American taxpayer cent should leave the country for a very very long time. It's all money laundering.
Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) January 15, 2025

Musk responded "True" to Robby Starbuck's post about USAID laundering taxpayer funds "for Democrats in DC." And even explained how it worked:

Annnnd the USAid website is now down.

Try it: https://t.co/lvZf3F02sp pic.twitter.com/teB9WPVe6D
Robby Starbuck (@robbystarbuck) February 2, 2025

"Like I said before, USAID is a front for the CIA. And together with NGO's like the Open Society Foundation, they have been using US tax dollars & govt resources as their personal piggy bank. It has been infuriating to watch. Hopefully now the whole truth will come out," journalist Lara Logan wrote on X. "

Good riddance.

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whiterock said:

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KaiBear said:

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Mexico is controlled by the drug cartels. The Mexican president is their puppet.

Short of going to war over all the fentanyl Mexico is smuggling into the United States……tariffs are the only answer to coerce Mexico into stopping these poisons.

Over 100,000 Americans are dying from overdoses each year.
Talk hasn't worked.

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Bingo.

Mexico is a borderline failing state due to drug cartel influence. Trump is trying to teach Mexico that they should be more worried about what the USA might do than what the cartels might do.

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KaiBear said:

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whiterock said:

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KaiBear said:

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Mexico is controlled by the drug cartels. The Mexican president is their puppet.

Short of going to war over all the fentanyl Mexico is smuggling into the United States……tariffs are the only answer to coerce Mexico into stopping these poisons.

Over 100,000 Americans are dying from overdoses each year.
Talk hasn't worked.

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Bingo.

Mexico is a borderline failing state due to drug cartel influence. Trump is trying to teach Mexico that they should be more worried about what the USA might do than what the cartels might do.

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In Mexico the politicians either accept money from the cartels or get assassinated by them.

Been a common reality for almost 20 years.

Mexican journalists who appose the cartels often get assassinated. I personally know at least two Mexican business owners who were told by the cartels to give up a minimum of 30% of their profit or shut down …..or be killed.

Both shut down their businesses.

I realize it is difficult to. believe that such a draconian situation exists, especially so close to our country.

But it does.

I give Trump a massive amount of credit for publicly declaring the realities involved. Hope the American people can be patient enough to let his plan unfold.

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The FBI Reddit is openly discussing how to avoid being caught leaking. pic.twitter.com/XnvDsJJy3Q

— Champagne Joshi (@JoshWalkos) February 3, 2025

Quote:

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Every Democrat took to X and said, Trump campaigned on ending inflation but tariffs are going to increase inflation.

This is just a point of information for those panicking about tariffs. If the US charges a 25% tariff on Canadian goods, and the Canadian dollar drops by 25% in value compared to the US Dollar, Americans will still pay the same price. EDIT to add Reuters article ... Canadian dollar posts longest monthly losing streak since 2016 https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/canadian-dollar-dips-volatile-trading-tariff-implementation-uncertainty-2025-01-31/

Here is what I think will happen.
[ol]

Tariffs are a disincentive to growth. Slower growth means lower inflation.

The way $DOGE is working, they are uncovering billions and billions of government largesse and waste. We will see budget cuts in the 20% of the budget that is discretionary. Interestingly, if we spent at 2019 levels and took in taxes as we did in 2023, the US Budget would be in surplus and we'd be paying debt down. Ending 100% of all payments to NGOs is a fantastic idea. We will save trillions.

Real estate is going to drop in value. Especially in DC, and areas in Maryland, in Virginia adjacent to DC. CRE leases by the government won't be renewed. Homes are going on the market as government employees retire, quit, or get fired. In some areas of the country, speculators bought up buildings and homes. They filled them with illegal aliens and collected government checks. Game over on that game. More real estate on the market.

Everyone thinks that we will see higher rates of interest on FinX. They are wrong. We are going to see interest rate decreases.

[/ol]

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Realitybites said:

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USAID Website Goes Dark As Trump Reportedly Plans To Shift Agency Under State Department

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/usaid-website-goes-dark-trump-reportedly-plans-shift-agency-under-state-department

"A post from Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) account on X clarified that USAID went on a woke spending spree in third-world countries...

At this point we need to end ALL foreign aid. Not a single American taxpayer cent should leave the country for a very very long time. It's all money laundering.
Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) January 15, 2025

Musk responded "True" to Robby Starbuck's post about USAID laundering taxpayer funds "for Democrats in DC." And even explained how it worked:

Annnnd the USAid website is now down.

Try it: https://t.co/lvZf3F02sp pic.twitter.com/teB9WPVe6D
Robby Starbuck (@robbystarbuck) February 2, 2025

"Like I said before, USAID is a front for the CIA. And together with NGO's like the Open Society Foundation, they have been using US tax dollars & govt resources as their personal piggy bank. It has been infuriating to watch. Hopefully now the whole truth will come out," journalist Lara Logan wrote on X. "

Good riddance.

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BREAKING: Wall Street drops as Trump's tariffs hit markets worldwide, with the Dow down 550 points. https://t.co/9Wixio9xnC

— The Associated Press (@AP) February 3, 2025