FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
KaiBear said:
Trump is finished .
Anyone who votes for him in any Republican primary is either incredibly ignorant of the political realities or a Democrat.
Way too early. We are a year out from Convention and 6 months until 1st primary. Plus, we don't have a popular vote like that to determine winner, it will come down to 6 or 7 keys states. This is all media fodder and Trumpettes trying to chase off competition.
Morning Consult is a respectable main-line poll......
The race will see-saw. Biden will struggle to maintain a lead, as HE is the incumbent now.
But the popular vote is misleading. There are only several States that are going to make a difference. CA is only worth 55, no matter how many votes Biden gets. FL is only 29, no matter how many Trump/DeSantis/Haley get.
Same goes for Primary. Trump can only win so many delegates in his strongholds, it will be the other areas that determine the nominee.
So, this National Polling only keeps people from voting as they get either a false sense of security or they think it is over and their vote won't matter.
I am much more interested how Biden vs Trump plays out in PA, WI, MI and OH. How Biden does in NC and GA. Can AZ go back Red? For the nominee, where are we after Super Tuesday and how the Primary schedule plays out? That is the important piece, if Trump is not getting his numbers until late will they come out? If Haley or DeSantis can get a few early wins, does the Trump support falter?
Those are the questions that will determine the next President, not whether the National Poll numbers show a big lead for Trump in the Primary or Biden in the National.
true, one cannot dismiss the points you made there. one can also not ignore the trends in the national polls. A candidate that is up 4-5pts in national polling is probably also up
enough in swing states as well. And the trends in those swing states usually do follow the national trends, although not necessarily to the same degree. Moreover, I don't cite the polls to show where the race WILL be on election day. Just to note where it appears to be
today, and from there we can analyze what's working & what's not. So it is noteworthy when Trump pulls even with Biden in national polls. Also noteworthy when Desantis falls back even with Biden in national polls, which several have shown for a while. That all makes sense.
Biden is going to struggle to maintain a polling lead. He's a terrible POTUS with a terrible record. Trump can easily pull ahead of him, even in swing states.
And I think the odds are very high we will have one or more third party candidates, which may have significant impact on the race. I can see several scenarios where third parties favor Trump more than other GOP candidates. But that's more brainstorming than assessment. Too early.....
The polls are kinda all over the place, but seems like Desantis is making up some ground on Trump. Going to be an interesting primary. Looking forward to it. Whoever wins it should be our next POTUS.