whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
Remember the classical definition of inflation: when the money supply grows without a corresponding increase in production. here, we see evidence that money supply is growing without inflation = growth in production starting to match growth in money supply. This should strengthen as more and more of the trade deal monies flow in to build energy, infrastructure, and industrial plant.
Can you please post a link to the production numbers that offset this size money supply?
Not a formula from a textbook but real economic metrics dated today or there about.
they are widely available on the internet - the inflation numbers.
they are widely available in college textbooks - the definition of inflation.
This is a very simple economics 101 concept: inflation occurs when the growth in money supply exceeds the growth in production.
Ergo, when money supply expands and inflation does not, it means production is expanding commensurately.
That is one explanation, there are others that does not mean an increase in production. You are over simplifying.
Did we have higher productivity in some sectors? Yes.
Did prices come down for some goods? Yes.
Did prices for consumers come down? Some.
It is a mixed bag, it is too simplistic to say productivity is down or even that inflation is down? On what? Housing? No. Gas? Yes. Groceries? No.
It is a mixed bag. But, it seems to make you feel better. So, I will go along. Yay...
The US economy under Donald Trump | The Economist
LOL you just explained what I said. There are any number of reasons WHY growth in productivity and growth in money supply might be approximately equal. But if they are, inflation numbers will reflect that. And they do at this time
There are other reasons that happens. You are also taking a very Macro approach, in all fairness most Presidents do, there are areas of concern with this economy.
If not, I agree with you.
of course I'm talking macro. Policy has to start with macro, or it becomes an unrecognizable mess of knee jerk responses. Macro sets the stage. Markets take it from there. If you need a few micro tweaks here & there to deal with imbalances....fine. Import a little beef. Stall a tariff for a few months until domestic supply chains can replace the import. Etc........but you have to have the macro policy to start with. And, finally, we have a logical macro plan to replace globalism that was hollowing out our industrial base (among other pathologies).
"The plan is nothing. HAVING a plan, is everything."
-DDE
Yes, you have macro view and a plan. But, you don't make future plan adjustments on the macro, you make them on the micro. The details of what is working and what is not. If you are not going to have an honest assessment you can't move off the original macro plan.
You rarely, if ever, will talk about the micro and adjustments that need to be made. I get it, that is the MAGA playbook. If you admit anything is not working it is weakness. Showing weakness is worse than being wrong.
Looks nice in a tweet or sound bite, but doesn't solve anything. This is why the whole thing is a reality show. There are no adjustments because there can't be, it is weakness. This is a Donald trait back to the 70's. Great idea, starts strong, no follow up. Why? Because he follows his gut and he can't admit mistakes as it shows weakness, so we stay on the same path.
The micro matters, just like how it is executed matters. Especially after initial contact. Tariffs are perfect test case, will Trump let Bessent make the moves that he needs to counter? OR, are we going to get 15% across the board, no make it 20% since Trump is pissed...?????
