Talarico vs Paxton

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Adriacus Peratuun
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In reply to Osodecentx • 1:32p, 8/5/26
Osodecentx said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
boognish_bear said:
I just cannot picture Talarico winning in Texas...but Paxton needs to be taking the campaign seriously.


Using 2022 (last Texas non-Presidential election) as a Go By and plugging in each result of that poll, Paxton wins easily.

2022:

every statewide race except Paxton won by 10.3% or greater.
Paxton won by 9.7%.
If Paxton trails other republicans candidates by 7-8% (per those polls) he still wins by 3%.

TSU……not exactly representative of Texas……TSU is insane if it thinks the entire R statewide candidate pool is within 7% in a non-Presidential election after the massive voter registration push by Rs.

Don't think that item matters? Look at 2024 results comped to 2020 and 2016.

2016: Trump by 808K
2020: Trump by 621K
2024: Trump by 1,569K

Raw numbers:

2016: R 4,685K D 3,877K
2020: R 5,890K D 5,259K
2024: R 6,375K D 4,806K

2022:

High statewide water mark for D = 3,554
Low statewide water mark for R = 4,274 (Paxton)
Gap of 720K

Anyone predicting a 11%+ swing in results to D (only one election later) in Texas is certifiably insane.

The situation is 2024 Iowa poll on repeat. The other statewide race poll figures confirm that point.


I understand.
If Baylor basketball beats Arizona by 5 points and Arizona beats Houston by 3 points, Baylor would beat Houston by 8 points.

1) tell everyone you are Democrat and analytics challenged without using the exact terms.

2) shake your fist at that cloud and stomp your feet a little harder.
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Osodecentx
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In reply to Adriacus Peratuun • 2:47p, 8/5/26
Adriacus Peratuun said:
Osodecentx said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
boognish_bear said:
I just cannot picture Talarico winning in Texas...but Paxton needs to be taking the campaign seriously.


Using 2022 (last Texas non-Presidential election) as a Go By and plugging in each result of that poll, Paxton wins easily.

2022:

every statewide race except Paxton won by 10.3% or greater.
Paxton won by 9.7%.
If Paxton trails other republicans candidates by 7-8% (per those polls) he still wins by 3%.

TSU……not exactly representative of Texas……TSU is insane if it thinks the entire R statewide candidate pool is within 7% in a non-Presidential election after the massive voter registration push by Rs.

Don't think that item matters? Look at 2024 results comped to 2020 and 2016.

2016: Trump by 808K
2020: Trump by 621K
2024: Trump by 1,569K

Raw numbers:

2016: R 4,685K D 3,877K
2020: R 5,890K D 5,259K
2024: R 6,375K D 4,806K

2022:

High statewide water mark for D = 3,554
Low statewide water mark for R = 4,274 (Paxton)
Gap of 720K

Anyone predicting a 11%+ swing in results to D (only one election later) in Texas is certifiably insane.

The situation is 2024 Iowa poll on repeat. The other statewide race poll figures confirm that point.


I understand.
If Baylor basketball beats Arizona by 5 points and Arizona beats Houston by 3 points, Baylor would beat Houston by 8 points.

1) tell everyone you are Democrat and analytics challenged without using the exact terms.

2) shake your fist at that cloud and stomp your feet a little harder.

I'm neither Republican nor Democrat and you don't know much about analytics as it works in political races. Obviously, you didn't take statistics in college.
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Danielsjackson114
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In reply to Osodecentx • 3:27p, 8/5/26
Why do so many resident left lunatics claim to be moderates on here
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drahthaar
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In reply to boognish_bear • 3:39p, 8/5/26
boognish_bear said:

Put enough of these committed socialist/marxists in power and you won't have an America to save.

Tragic to realize that our political parties are willing to put enemies to Republican government and morally corrupt people as their chosen candidates for any office at any level.
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historian
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In reply to boognish_bear • 4:16p, 8/5/26
boognish_bear said:

If he wants crazy Jimmy to win he's not a conservative. He's trying to fool people who are confused by all the Leftist propaganda. The fascists do this in every election year trying to flip Texas but they choose crazy candidates with crazy ideas who repeatedly provide voters with reasons to vote Republican. Genuine conservatives won't be fooled.
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Osodecentx
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In reply to Danielsjackson114 • 5:15p, 8/5/26
Danielsjackson114 said:
Why do so many resident left lunatics claim to be moderates on here


AP isn't a left lunatic
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boognish_bear
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9:29p, 8/5/26
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whitetrash
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In reply to boognish_bear • 9:55p, 8/5/26
boognish_bear said:


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boognish_bear
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In reply to whitetrash • 10:02p, 8/5/26
whitetrash said:
boognish_bear said:




One of my all time favorite movies
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boognish_bear
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10:55p, 8/5/26
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boognish_bear
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10:59p, 8/5/26
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boognish_bear
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11:00p, 8/5/26
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historian
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In reply to boognish_bear • 7:57a
boognish_bear said:

So she's smarter than she usually acts. She's such a fake!
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Johnny Bear
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In reply to historian • 8:12a
historian said:
boognish_bear said:

So she's smarter than she usually acts. She's such a fake!

Like most of her dumocrat colleagues she's all about putting on an act and being performative when pandering to her voters which she frequently does. I don't see how anyone could pull off passing the Bar and becoming a licensed attorney and really be as ignorant and dumb as she usually appears.
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Bruisers Burner Phone
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In reply to historian • 8:44a
historian said:
boognish_bear said:

So she's smarter than she usually acts. She's such a fake!

She's actually dumber than her public persona. And that says a lot.
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