Vehicle repossessions are at the highest level since 2009, per Cox: pic.twitter.com/AbkRYIuOoA
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) November 19, 2025
Recession
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1479 Replies |
Last: 2 days ago by boognish_bear
McDonald’s Price Increases from 2019 to 2024:
— MatrixMysteries (@MatrixMysteries) November 19, 2025
Medium French Fry $1.79 -> $4.19
McChicken $1.29 -> $3.89
Big Mac $3.99 -> $7.49
10 McNuggets $4.49 -> $7.58
Cheeseburger $1.00 -> $3.15
Some of this is over a 200% increase in price. This isn’t inflation — it’s legalized robbery. pic.twitter.com/jCwVRcO9gu
I have been expecting a recession and it may be coming yet but not in Q3
ATL Fed: not only is GDP currently estimated to have grown 4.2% for Q3 but the gain is primarily driven by big increases in private spending and private investment, not gov't: pic.twitter.com/pGoJx0Qzuv
— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) November 19, 2025
Jacques Strap said:
I have been expecting a recession and it may be coming yet but not in Q3ATL Fed: not only is GDP currently estimated to have grown 4.2% for Q3 but the gain is primarily driven by big increases in private spending and private investment, not gov't: pic.twitter.com/pGoJx0Qzuv
— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) November 19, 2025
wait until the trade deal investments get flowing in 2026 & 2027. Should drive the GDP numbers even higher.
boognish_bear said:Opinion:
— Mark Palmer (@MarketPalmer_) November 16, 2025
Give your kids their inheritance before you die.
Pay for their college.
Take them on vacations.
Pitch in for their wedding.
Help with their first home downpayment.
These are all life moments where money will go much further than when they're 50+ and already have a…
Totally agree with this philosophy.
Provide for your adult offspring at key moments in their lives.
Hardship withdrawals from 401(k) due to cost of living increases are at an all time high, per Fidelity.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) November 20, 2025
All we need is just a little patience...
Vance on the economy:
— FactPost (@factpostnews) November 20, 2025
"The thing that I'd ask for the American people is a little bit of patience." pic.twitter.com/PAkAxb3Y9v
I don't understand crypto enough to know if this is likely…
People don’t realize how much chaos is coming for Bitcoin in the next few months.
— Jacob King (@JacobKinge) November 20, 2025
Bitcoin mining has entered its most unprofitable stretch in a decade. It currently costs a whopping $112K to mine a single Bitcoin, that’s now only worth $86K and falling fast.
It’s only a matter… pic.twitter.com/Cy22Eqmuq8
boognish_bear said:
I don't understand crypto enough to know if this is likely…People don’t realize how much chaos is coming for Bitcoin in the next few months.
— Jacob King (@JacobKinge) November 20, 2025
Bitcoin mining has entered its most unprofitable stretch in a decade. It currently costs a whopping $112K to mine a single Bitcoin, that’s now only worth $86K and falling fast.
It’s only a matter… pic.twitter.com/Cy22Eqmuq8
Supply and demand. Same thing happens with oil, gold, and other commodities where the market price and the price of extraction are weighed against each other.
A more important question is what is the average cost basis of the Crypto ETFs and what happens if liquidations continue below that number. With the creation of such funds, crypto suddenly became a major player in the market at large and could be the catalyst for a broader liquidity crisis.
Also, watch the Yen Carry trade, which could also serve such a role.
Also, why is this supposedly limited supply asset trading like a tech stock, and not like Gold.
Realitybites said:boognish_bear said:
I don't understand crypto enough to know if this is likely…People don’t realize how much chaos is coming for Bitcoin in the next few months.
— Jacob King (@JacobKinge) November 20, 2025
Bitcoin mining has entered its most unprofitable stretch in a decade. It currently costs a whopping $112K to mine a single Bitcoin, that’s now only worth $86K and falling fast.
It’s only a matter… pic.twitter.com/Cy22Eqmuq8
Supply and demand. Same thing happens with oil, gold, and other commodities where the market price and the price of extraction are weighed against each other.
A more important question is what is the average cost basis of the Crypto ETFs and what happens if liquidations continue below that number. With the creation of such funds, crypto suddenly became a major player in the market at large and could be the catalyst for a broader liquidity crisis.
Also, watch the Yen Carry trade, which could also serve such a role.
Also, why is this supposedly limited supply asset trading like a tech stock, and not like Gold.
Makes you wonder if the premise of limited amount is going to work against it in the long run. I don't know if it adds to the stock of bitcoin? Does the program add over time? With commodities, we find new gold, oil, and mineral resources all the time. So no one really knows how much is there. Add on satellite mining, moon and deep sea... Does Bitcoin account for those things?
Unlike Gold and other commodities, there is an algorithmic cap on the number of Bitcoins that can ever exist: 21 million. That's it. Every four years, it undergoes something called the "halving" where mining rewards are reduced by 50% as the supply increases. Forecasts say that the last Bitcoin should be mined in the mid 2100s.
So theoretically, this is the most devaluation-proof asset in human history as it is impervious to new discoveries of a commodity.
It just doesn't behave like that for some reason.
So theoretically, this is the most devaluation-proof asset in human history as it is impervious to new discoveries of a commodity.
It just doesn't behave like that for some reason.
Realitybites said:
Unlike Gold and other commodities, there is an algorithmic cap on the number of Bitcoins that can ever exist: 21 million. That's it. Every four years, it undergoes something called the "halving" where mining rewards are reduced by 50% as the supply increases. Forecasts say that the last Bitcoin should be mined in the mid 2100s.
So theoretically, this is the most devaluation-proof asset in human history as it is impervious to new discoveries of the underlying commodity.
It just doesn't behave like that.
it behaves like any other fiat currency = it rises & falls based on supply & demand.
And it has one conceptual flaw = halving the value has the same effect as doubling the supply, which is ironic given that bitcoin is ostensibly a defense against quantitative easing by a central bank seeking to facilitate financing of federal budget deficits.
whiterock said:
it behaves like any other fiat currency = it rises & falls based on supply & demand.
And it has one conceptual flaw = halving the value has the same effect as doubling the supply, which is ironic given that bitcoin is ostensibly a defense against quantitative easing by a central bank seeking to facilitate financing of federal budget deficits.
That's the thing though, it doesn't. It doesn't trade with a correlation to GLD or inversely to DXY. It's closest correlation is QQQ. The thing trades like a tech stock and that correlation began around late 2020.
The halving has nothing to do with the value of a single BTC directly. It refers to the production rate being halved, if anything that should be bullish for the net value of the existing supply.
whiterock said:Realitybites said:
Unlike Gold and other commodities, there is an algorithmic cap on the number of Bitcoins that can ever exist: 21 million. That's it. Every four years, it undergoes something called the "halving" where mining rewards are reduced by 50% as the supply increases. Forecasts say that the last Bitcoin should be mined in the mid 2100s.
So theoretically, this is the most devaluation-proof asset in human history as it is impervious to new discoveries of the underlying commodity.
It just doesn't behave like that.
it behaves like any other fiat currency = it rises & falls based on supply & demand.
And it has one conceptual flaw = halving the value has the same effect as doubling the supply, which is ironic given that bitcoin is ostensibly a defense against quantitative easing by a central bank seeking to facilitate financing of federal budget deficits.
It doesnt halve the value like a stock split. The amount left to be mined is cut in half every 4 years. BTC does not behave like a fiat currency at all. It has a finite supply and unlike gold there cant be more mined.
Realitybites said:
Unlike Gold and other commodities, there is an algorithmic cap on the number of Bitcoins that can ever exist: 21 million. That's it. Every four years, it undergoes something called the "halving" where mining rewards are reduced by 50% as the supply increases. Forecasts say that the last Bitcoin should be mined in the mid 2100s.
So theoretically, this is the most devaluation-proof asset in human history as it is impervious to new discoveries of a commodity.
It just doesn't behave like that for some reason.
Well, it is man-made and mining is based on math skill. There are still a lot of people that are wary. Also, not anyone can mine it. Unlike Gold where people grabbed a pan and hit the CA or AK, this is a more limited skill set.
Not saying it won't working. Currency is what we make it.
I don't think it is acting like expected because the end-user are people, they are not logical. We see it with roads, why are people using a route that takes longer? It is a pretty road... How do you analyze that? GW Parkway in DC is a perfect example. It is my favorite road to drive, even though it takes longer. That is not logical or what would be expected when building other routes.
FOLLOW THIS FUCKER RIGHT FUCKING NOW PRIVATE CREDIT IS THIS CYCLE’S SUBPRIME HE IS AMONG THE FEW WHO UNDERSTANDS THIS https://t.co/URP8mBdt9a
— Michael A. Gayed, CFA (@leadlagreport) November 21, 2025
Gold (+55%) is the best performing major asset in 2025 while Bitcoin (-9%) is now the worst. Something we haven't seen before in any calendar year (the inverse of 2013). $GLD $BTChttps://t.co/l5IYmkf6Ih pic.twitter.com/SQU8KPXO4u
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) November 22, 2025
FLBear5630 said:Realitybites said:
Unlike Gold and other commodities, there is an algorithmic cap on the number of Bitcoins that can ever exist: 21 million. That's it. Every four years, it undergoes something called the "halving" where mining rewards are reduced by 50% as the supply increases. Forecasts say that the last Bitcoin should be mined in the mid 2100s.
So theoretically, this is the most devaluation-proof asset in human history as it is impervious to new discoveries of a commodity.
It just doesn't behave like that for some reason.
Well, it is man-made and mining is based on math skill. There are still a lot of people that are wary. Also, not anyone can mine it. Unlike Gold where people grabbed a pan and hit the CA or AK, this is a more limited skill set.
Not saying it won't working. Currency is what we make it.
I don't think it is acting like expected because the end-user are people, they are not logical. We see it with roads, why are people using a route that takes longer? It is a pretty road... How do you analyze that? GW Parkway in DC is a perfect example. It is my favorite road to drive, even though it takes longer. That is not logical or what would be expected when building other routes.
because in many ways, bitcoin is a fiat currency, too.....
whiterock said:FLBear5630 said:Realitybites said:
Unlike Gold and other commodities, there is an algorithmic cap on the number of Bitcoins that can ever exist: 21 million. That's it. Every four years, it undergoes something called the "halving" where mining rewards are reduced by 50% as the supply increases. Forecasts say that the last Bitcoin should be mined in the mid 2100s.
So theoretically, this is the most devaluation-proof asset in human history as it is impervious to new discoveries of a commodity.
It just doesn't behave like that for some reason.
Well, it is man-made and mining is based on math skill. There are still a lot of people that are wary. Also, not anyone can mine it. Unlike Gold where people grabbed a pan and hit the CA or AK, this is a more limited skill set.
Not saying it won't working. Currency is what we make it.
I don't think it is acting like expected because the end-user are people, they are not logical. We see it with roads, why are people using a route that takes longer? It is a pretty road... How do you analyze that? GW Parkway in DC is a perfect example. It is my favorite road to drive, even though it takes longer. That is not logical or what would be expected when building other routes.
because in many ways, bitcoin is a fiat currency, too.....
Yeah, it has value until we say it doesn't.
To me it is personal, I am not a math whiz. The odds of me mining bitcoin is 0. So, I felt it was a bit of an unfair fiat currency...
Tyson Foods $TSN has announced today it will close a major beef plant in Nebraska, with 3200 jobs impacted as well as cutting 1700 jobs in Amarillo announced today.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) November 23, 2025
FLBear5630 said:whiterock said:FLBear5630 said:Realitybites said:
Unlike Gold and other commodities, there is an algorithmic cap on the number of Bitcoins that can ever exist: 21 million. That's it. Every four years, it undergoes something called the "halving" where mining rewards are reduced by 50% as the supply increases. Forecasts say that the last Bitcoin should be mined in the mid 2100s.
So theoretically, this is the most devaluation-proof asset in human history as it is impervious to new discoveries of a commodity.
It just doesn't behave like that for some reason.
Well, it is man-made and mining is based on math skill. There are still a lot of people that are wary. Also, not anyone can mine it. Unlike Gold where people grabbed a pan and hit the CA or AK, this is a more limited skill set.
Not saying it won't working. Currency is what we make it.
I don't think it is acting like expected because the end-user are people, they are not logical. We see it with roads, why are people using a route that takes longer? It is a pretty road... How do you analyze that? GW Parkway in DC is a perfect example. It is my favorite road to drive, even though it takes longer. That is not logical or what would be expected when building other routes.
because in many ways, bitcoin is a fiat currency, too.....
Yeah, it has value until we say it doesn't.
To me it is personal, I am not a math whiz. The odds of me mining bitcoin is 0. So, I felt it was a bit of an unfair fiat currency...
Excellent point. Money is meant to be a tool for commerce, not this crap we see in Crypto.
I know the days of using actual gold and silver in coins is long gone, but the value in that was even if you had no confidence in the government, you had confidence in the currency because of the precious metal. Even the banknotes could be exchanged for actual gold or silver.
From there we have gone to fiat currency dependent on the government's ability to pay its debts, to this Crypto stuff which gets its price wholly from the public mood.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
US manufacturing employment continues to decline:
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 23, 2025
The US economy lost -6,000 manufacturing jobs in September, marking the 5th consecutive monthly contraction.
During this period, manufacturing jobs have dropped -58,000, to 12.71 million, the lowest since March 2022.
Since the… pic.twitter.com/eO80nYCvr7
You don’t close a beef packing plant in the heart of cattle country during the greatest shortage in 75 years, if you’re expecting it to end anytime soon. pic.twitter.com/NfGJLcw5lj
— Hey, Dave! (@davegreenidge57) November 22, 2025
Tyson CEO Donnie King made $22.7 million last year.
— Dan Osborn (@osbornforne) November 22, 2025
The week before Thanksgiving, he told 3,200 workers in Lexington, Nebraska that they're losing their jobs.
We are witnessing unprecedented market concentration:
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 22, 2025
Magnificent 7 stocks now reflect a record 38% of the S&P 500’s market cap.
This means that 38 cents of every $1 invested in the S&P 500 goes into these 7 names.
The percentage has DOUBLED since the 2020 pandemic.
Nvidia,… pic.twitter.com/Z8KjbyzT9C
boognish_bear said:Tyson CEO Donnie King made $22.7 million last year.
— Dan Osborn (@osbornforne) November 22, 2025
The week before Thanksgiving, he told 3,200 workers in Lexington, Nebraska that they're losing their jobs.
Don King? LOL!!!! Oh the irony!
Call it a tax, the people are outraged! Call it a tariff, the people get out their checkbooks and wave their American flags!!!
🇺🇸 US Dollar has lost 20% of its purchasing power since 2020. pic.twitter.com/uxVBOeNfgk
— Bitcoin Junkies (@BTCjunkies) November 23, 2025
boognish_bear said:🇺🇸 US Dollar has lost 20% of its purchasing power since 2020. pic.twitter.com/uxVBOeNfgk
— Bitcoin Junkies (@BTCjunkies) November 23, 2025
Bitcoin has lost 30 percent of its "value" in the last 5 weeks.
Hope Bitcoin junkie can get himself into a program and get some help.
Call it a tax, the people are outraged! Call it a tariff, the people get out their checkbooks and wave their American flags!!!
Oldbear83 said:
Excellent point. Money is meant to be a tool for commerce, not this crap we see in Crypto.
I know the days of using actual gold and silver in coins is long gone, but the value in that was even if you had no confidence in the government, you had confidence in the currency because of the precious metal. Even the banknotes could be exchanged for actual gold or silver.
From there we have gone to fiat currency dependent on the government's ability to pay its debts, to this Crypto stuff which gets its price wholly from the public mood.
Money is both a store of value and a medium of exchange. The problem with the many of the world's fiat currencies is that they've been actively destroying the first half of that definition. The original use case for Bitcoin is that it could protect the first half of that definition while eventually becoming suitable for the second half. Right now, it's not really accomplishing either goal.
When all else fails, blame consumers 🤦♂️
— John Smith.USD 🏴☠️ (@cherrygarciafan) November 23, 2025
CNBC pic.twitter.com/fgFb8Rz3dp
BREAKING: Unemployed Americans with 4-year college degrees now make up a record 25.3% of total unemployment.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 24, 2025
The percentage has doubled since the 2008 Financial Crisis.
This comes as over 1.9 million workers aged 25+ with at least a bachelor’s degree are now unemployed.… pic.twitter.com/HWcUZnHcu2
JUST IN: Eric Trump gives tour of his Bitcoin mining facility, which he claims mines 2% of the total Bitcoin supply globally. pic.twitter.com/b6axGIfIEb
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) November 24, 2025
boognish_bear said:BREAKING: Unemployed Americans with 4-year college degrees now make up a record 25.3% of total unemployment.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 24, 2025
The percentage has doubled since the 2008 Financial Crisis.
This comes as over 1.9 million workers aged 25+ with at least a bachelor’s degree are now unemployed.… pic.twitter.com/HWcUZnHcu2
A hundred years of progressive politics has resulted in a massive oversupply of colleges and college degrees.
If doctors wanted to be wealthy, they would have become UPS truck drivers
This analysis only accounts for total net income, not the time value of money.
Many physician salaries are down around 40% in nominal terms since the late 1990s.
This has a lot to do with it. The health care bureaucracy is feeding at the trough to a far greater extent than in the days of a market based health care system with doctors in private practice. The end result is this, and your 15 minute appointment (12, in some places).
Realitybites said:boognish_bear said:BREAKING: Unemployed Americans with 4-year college degrees now make up a record 25.3% of total unemployment.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 24, 2025
The percentage has doubled since the 2008 Financial Crisis.
This comes as over 1.9 million workers aged 25+ with at least a bachelor’s degree are now unemployed.… pic.twitter.com/HWcUZnHcu2
A hundred years of progressive politics has resulted in a massive oversupply of colleges and college degrees.
If doctors wanted to be wealthy, they would have become UPS truck drivers
This analysis only accounts for total net income, not the time value of money.
Many physician salaries are down around 40% in nominal terms since the late 1990s.
This has a lot to do with it. The health care bureaucracy is feeding at the trough to a far greater extent than in the days of a market based health care system with doctors in private practice. The end result is this, and your 15 minute appointment (12, in some places).
Have to get rid of the health insurance industry and the current system. Also, how does the normal working guy pay for cancer treatment without health insurance? It costs about 250k for cancer treatment, chemo can by as high as 48k a year. How do you pay for that when even with good health insurance it can bankrupt you. Is the cost of treatment going to come down to carton of eggs level that people can afford? A couple of grand, so you don't go on vacation for a year or so?
All this stuff is great. How do you pay for it and how do you NOT leave millions with no hope of treatment? Or, do we let people die that can't afford it? You know, reduce the surplus population.
FLBear5630 said:Realitybites said:boognish_bear said:BREAKING: Unemployed Americans with 4-year college degrees now make up a record 25.3% of total unemployment.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 24, 2025
The percentage has doubled since the 2008 Financial Crisis.
This comes as over 1.9 million workers aged 25+ with at least a bachelor’s degree are now unemployed.… pic.twitter.com/HWcUZnHcu2
A hundred years of progressive politics has resulted in a massive oversupply of colleges and college degrees.
If doctors wanted to be wealthy, they would have become UPS truck drivers
This analysis only accounts for total net income, not the time value of money.
Many physician salaries are down around 40% in nominal terms since the late 1990s.
This has a lot to do with it. The health care bureaucracy is feeding at the trough to a far greater extent than in the days of a market based health care system with doctors in private practice. The end result is this, and your 15 minute appointment (12, in some places).
Have to get rid of the health insurance industry and the current system. Also, how does the normal working guy pay for cancer treatment without health insurance? It costs about 250k for cancer treatment, chemo can by as high as 48k a year. How do you pay for that when even with good health insurance it can bankrupt you. Is the cost of treatment going to come down to carton of eggs level that people can afford? A couple of grand, so you don't go on vacation for a year or so?
All this stuff is great. How do you pay for it and how do you NOT leave millions with no hope of treatment? Or, do we let people die that can't afford it? You know, reduce the surplus population.
Require everyone to have insurance for catastrophic events, and catastrophic events only?
More hospitals like St. Jude?