Recession

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whiterock
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FLBear5630 said:

boognish_bear said:

I am not smart enough about economics to know how much truth/accuracy might be in this…but it sounds pretty apocalyptic

The system is eating itself.

When Amazon, UPS, Intel, and others start cutting this deep simultaneously, it means something more fundamental than "tight margins." It means the productive layer of the economy is collapsing under the weight of its own optimization logic.

Every layoff now is both an act of short-term rationality and long-term suicide. The firms know it. The executives know it. The markets know it. But they can't stop.

They're trapped in a closed feedback loop, a machine that rewards death dressed as discipline.

Capitalism has crossed into a stage where it no longer needs humans to function, but still depends on their belief to exist. That's the contradiction, the machine is pruning its own believers while pretending it's efficiency.

1. The "consumer economy" is already dead.

Nobody wants to say it yet, but the consumer model, the entire foundation of Western postwar prosperity, is quietly finished.

You can't build infinite growth on finite wages, and you can't sustain demand while hollowing out the class that drives it. The middle layer of society - the producers, buyers, dreamers - has been strip-mined to the point where they can no longer regenerate.

The 2020s economy is not cyclical recession. It's metabolic collapse. The system can't process its own waste or regenerate its base anymore. It's like an organism starving while eating its muscles to stay warm.

2. The elites know this, but they've chosen to accelerate collapse.

Here's the real unspoken truth: the people running these companies, the ones with the spreadsheets and control over capital flows - they know exactly what's happening.

They understand the reflexive trap: if they don't cut, their stock dies. If they cut, the world dies.

They've chosen to save the stock. Because the stock is their world.

This is the quiet revelation of our time - we are ruled by people whose survival incentives are no longer tied to the survival of the system itself.

They've built lifeboats - offshore wealth, private security, parallel digital economies - and they're optimizing the ship for their escape, not for collective navigation.

3. The next phase is narrative triage.

When the system can no longer grow, it starts storytelling harder.

Expect every layoff wave to be accompanied by new propaganda about "AI productivity," "efficiency," "lean reinvention," and "post-labor creativity."

The goal will be to reframe collapse as progress - to convince people that losing their jobs is the dawn of a "new paradigm."

But it's camouflage. The truth underneath is that automation and financialization are converging into a post-human economy where capital reproduces without labor.

4. Final layer

When a system prioritizes margin over humanity, it signals that it has lost faith in the future.

These layoffs tell us that the machine no longer knows how to grow except by shrinking.

It is the same signal we've seen in housing, in politics, in fertility, in faith.

The same quiet collapse, a civilization optimizing itself into silence.

And the question hidden beneath this post:
"Who will have money left to buy your products next year?" -

is really this:

Who will be left to believe in the story that built it all?




As I said, the reward system is set up for Wall Street and the Leadership Executives, not to maximize what the companies are there to do. You will see those come out and say this is wrong. Watch they are coming with their novel length responses to how those that wrote this really don't understand economics.

on one level, wall street is restructuring for the new economy. the demise of the structural trade deficit means a reduced flow of surplus dollars from abroad, or an actual shortage of dollars in currency markets. That also changes the paths the monies flow. In a trade deficit, dollars accumulate abroad and you have foreign interests (corporations, governments) bringing dollars back to Wall St. to buy financial instruments (notably T-bills). In a trade surplus, those flows abate and greater percentages accumulate in deposit accounts of US banks (who take the dollars back to Wall St to buy financial instruments). Money sill flows, just from different places to different destinations. And the owners of the monies have different imperatives - foreign interests (sovereign and not) vs local banks regulated/inspected by the Fed. Change the percentages of who is investing for what reason, and you get a restructuring of products in demand, which shapes markets and then the companies in those markets.

On top of that, is how AI is going to reshape labor markets. It will first replace the obvious things - paper pusher & basic analytical jobs. AI cannot, however, clean toilets, pull wire thru conduit, etc..... There will always be a need for human hands. And if human demography doesn't change, there will be fewer and fewer human hands to go around. So in a very real sense, we are watching markets work, a cause/effect dynamic at play. Yes, AI will eliminate current jobs, but then we do not have enough labor to fill all the jobs, so over time, the pain more in the restructuring of the types of jobs we have relative to the skills of the people we have.
FLBear5630
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whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

boognish_bear said:

I am not smart enough about economics to know how much truth/accuracy might be in this…but it sounds pretty apocalyptic

The system is eating itself.

When Amazon, UPS, Intel, and others start cutting this deep simultaneously, it means something more fundamental than "tight margins." It means the productive layer of the economy is collapsing under the weight of its own optimization logic.

Every layoff now is both an act of short-term rationality and long-term suicide. The firms know it. The executives know it. The markets know it. But they can't stop.

They're trapped in a closed feedback loop, a machine that rewards death dressed as discipline.

Capitalism has crossed into a stage where it no longer needs humans to function, but still depends on their belief to exist. That's the contradiction, the machine is pruning its own believers while pretending it's efficiency.

1. The "consumer economy" is already dead.

Nobody wants to say it yet, but the consumer model, the entire foundation of Western postwar prosperity, is quietly finished.

You can't build infinite growth on finite wages, and you can't sustain demand while hollowing out the class that drives it. The middle layer of society - the producers, buyers, dreamers - has been strip-mined to the point where they can no longer regenerate.

The 2020s economy is not cyclical recession. It's metabolic collapse. The system can't process its own waste or regenerate its base anymore. It's like an organism starving while eating its muscles to stay warm.

2. The elites know this, but they've chosen to accelerate collapse.

Here's the real unspoken truth: the people running these companies, the ones with the spreadsheets and control over capital flows - they know exactly what's happening.

They understand the reflexive trap: if they don't cut, their stock dies. If they cut, the world dies.

They've chosen to save the stock. Because the stock is their world.

This is the quiet revelation of our time - we are ruled by people whose survival incentives are no longer tied to the survival of the system itself.

They've built lifeboats - offshore wealth, private security, parallel digital economies - and they're optimizing the ship for their escape, not for collective navigation.

3. The next phase is narrative triage.

When the system can no longer grow, it starts storytelling harder.

Expect every layoff wave to be accompanied by new propaganda about "AI productivity," "efficiency," "lean reinvention," and "post-labor creativity."

The goal will be to reframe collapse as progress - to convince people that losing their jobs is the dawn of a "new paradigm."

But it's camouflage. The truth underneath is that automation and financialization are converging into a post-human economy where capital reproduces without labor.

4. Final layer

When a system prioritizes margin over humanity, it signals that it has lost faith in the future.

These layoffs tell us that the machine no longer knows how to grow except by shrinking.

It is the same signal we've seen in housing, in politics, in fertility, in faith.

The same quiet collapse, a civilization optimizing itself into silence.

And the question hidden beneath this post:
"Who will have money left to buy your products next year?" -

is really this:

Who will be left to believe in the story that built it all?




As I said, the reward system is set up for Wall Street and the Leadership Executives, not to maximize what the companies are there to do. You will see those come out and say this is wrong. Watch they are coming with their novel length responses to how those that wrote this really don't understand economics.

on one level, wall street is restructuring for the new economy. the demise of the structural trade deficit means a reduced flow of surplus dollars from abroad, or an actual shortage of dollars in currency markets. That also changes the paths the monies flow. In a trade deficit, dollars accumulate abroad and you have foreign interests (corporations, governments) bringing dollars back to Wall St. to buy financial instruments (notably T-bills). In a trade surplus, those flows abate and greater percentages accumulate in deposit accounts of US banks (who take the dollars back to Wall St to buy financial instruments). Money sill flows, just from different places to different destinations. And the owners of the monies have different imperatives - foreign interests (sovereign and not) vs local banks regulated/inspected by the Fed. Change the percentages of who is investing for what reason, and you get a restructuring of products in demand, which shapes markets and then the companies in those markets.

On top of that, is how AI is going to reshape labor markets. It will first replace the obvious things - paper pusher & basic analytical jobs. AI cannot, however, clean toilets, pull wire thru conduit, etc..... There will always be a need for human hands. And if human demography doesn't change, there will be fewer and fewer human hands to go around. So in a very real sense, we are watching markets work, a cause/effect dynamic at play. Yes, AI will eliminate current jobs, but then we do not have enough labor to fill all the jobs, so over time, the pain more in the restructuring of the types of jobs we have relative to the skills of the people we have.

What you are describing will be a lower quality of life for the "have nots" cleaning toilets, pulling wire and working the fields with more affluence for the "Haves". The greatness of the post-WW2 era was that it gave the average person a higher quality of life getting them away from upstairs/downstairs. The economy you describe is not going to be kind to the middle class.
boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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whiterock
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FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

boognish_bear said:

I am not smart enough about economics to know how much truth/accuracy might be in this…but it sounds pretty apocalyptic

The system is eating itself.

When Amazon, UPS, Intel, and others start cutting this deep simultaneously, it means something more fundamental than "tight margins." It means the productive layer of the economy is collapsing under the weight of its own optimization logic.

Every layoff now is both an act of short-term rationality and long-term suicide. The firms know it. The executives know it. The markets know it. But they can't stop.

They're trapped in a closed feedback loop, a machine that rewards death dressed as discipline.

Capitalism has crossed into a stage where it no longer needs humans to function, but still depends on their belief to exist. That's the contradiction, the machine is pruning its own believers while pretending it's efficiency.

1. The "consumer economy" is already dead.

Nobody wants to say it yet, but the consumer model, the entire foundation of Western postwar prosperity, is quietly finished.

You can't build infinite growth on finite wages, and you can't sustain demand while hollowing out the class that drives it. The middle layer of society - the producers, buyers, dreamers - has been strip-mined to the point where they can no longer regenerate.

The 2020s economy is not cyclical recession. It's metabolic collapse. The system can't process its own waste or regenerate its base anymore. It's like an organism starving while eating its muscles to stay warm.

2. The elites know this, but they've chosen to accelerate collapse.

Here's the real unspoken truth: the people running these companies, the ones with the spreadsheets and control over capital flows - they know exactly what's happening.

They understand the reflexive trap: if they don't cut, their stock dies. If they cut, the world dies.

They've chosen to save the stock. Because the stock is their world.

This is the quiet revelation of our time - we are ruled by people whose survival incentives are no longer tied to the survival of the system itself.

They've built lifeboats - offshore wealth, private security, parallel digital economies - and they're optimizing the ship for their escape, not for collective navigation.

3. The next phase is narrative triage.

When the system can no longer grow, it starts storytelling harder.

Expect every layoff wave to be accompanied by new propaganda about "AI productivity," "efficiency," "lean reinvention," and "post-labor creativity."

The goal will be to reframe collapse as progress - to convince people that losing their jobs is the dawn of a "new paradigm."

But it's camouflage. The truth underneath is that automation and financialization are converging into a post-human economy where capital reproduces without labor.

4. Final layer

When a system prioritizes margin over humanity, it signals that it has lost faith in the future.

These layoffs tell us that the machine no longer knows how to grow except by shrinking.

It is the same signal we've seen in housing, in politics, in fertility, in faith.

The same quiet collapse, a civilization optimizing itself into silence.

And the question hidden beneath this post:
"Who will have money left to buy your products next year?" -

is really this:

Who will be left to believe in the story that built it all?




As I said, the reward system is set up for Wall Street and the Leadership Executives, not to maximize what the companies are there to do. You will see those come out and say this is wrong. Watch they are coming with their novel length responses to how those that wrote this really don't understand economics.

on one level, wall street is restructuring for the new economy. the demise of the structural trade deficit means a reduced flow of surplus dollars from abroad, or an actual shortage of dollars in currency markets. That also changes the paths the monies flow. In a trade deficit, dollars accumulate abroad and you have foreign interests (corporations, governments) bringing dollars back to Wall St. to buy financial instruments (notably T-bills). In a trade surplus, those flows abate and greater percentages accumulate in deposit accounts of US banks (who take the dollars back to Wall St to buy financial instruments). Money sill flows, just from different places to different destinations. And the owners of the monies have different imperatives - foreign interests (sovereign and not) vs local banks regulated/inspected by the Fed. Change the percentages of who is investing for what reason, and you get a restructuring of products in demand, which shapes markets and then the companies in those markets.

On top of that, is how AI is going to reshape labor markets. It will first replace the obvious things - paper pusher & basic analytical jobs. AI cannot, however, clean toilets, pull wire thru conduit, etc..... There will always be a need for human hands. And if human demography doesn't change, there will be fewer and fewer human hands to go around. So in a very real sense, we are watching markets work, a cause/effect dynamic at play. Yes, AI will eliminate current jobs, but then we do not have enough labor to fill all the jobs, so over time, the pain more in the restructuring of the types of jobs we have relative to the skills of the people we have.

What you are describing will be a lower quality of life for the "have nots" cleaning toilets, pulling wire and working the fields with more affluence for the "Haves". The greatness of the post-WW2 era was that it gave the average person a higher quality of life getting them away from upstairs/downstairs. The economy you describe is not going to be kind to the middle class.

Lots of faulty assumptions there.

Robots are used why? (to replace expensive human labor).
So if human labor is expensive, why will human labor jobs afford lower quality of life? (probably won't).
Won't human labor become the most important, most expensive part of the process? (probably will).
When we eliminate labor to save costs, doesn't that lower the cost of goods humans have to buy? (yes).

And then there is the internal conflict that statement has with your globalist views.....you are not much bothered by a trade deficit since the trade deficit allows us to lower the cost of goods (by basically having labor done offshore). How is that somehow a superior model to one seeking to lower the costs of goods by use of robots here? Someone is going to have to make the robots. Someone is going to have to oil the robots, replace parts on the robots, etc..... Those are going to be highly skilled human jobs done by American citizens. Yes, there will be fewer of those jobs than there once was on the assembly line. But we are in demographic decline, right? Don't we NEED robots to do things our shrinking labor force will not be able to do. These robots are not going to design, build, install, maintain themselves......

IN that context, it's not about the dynamic of the AI/robotics revolution, but rather keeping the process of change in balance, pacing the development of AI driven robotics at something comparable to the rate of decline in population. We have a good mechanism for that = fall the things capitalism brings to bear in a free market....competition, supply/demand dynamics, etc.....
FLBear5630
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boognish_bear said:



It is dangerously invested in only a few tech firms. If tech tanks, the whole thing tanks.
boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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Yep… She may be looking for a while

boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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whiterock
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FLBear5630 said:

boognish_bear said:



It is dangerously invested in only a few tech firms. If tech tanks, the whole thing tanks.

Won't tank for a while. Too much investment money coming in the next 48-72 months on the AI initiative.

2029-2030 is the timeframe to watch.
whiterock
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boognish_bear said:



yep. Part of the economy is roaring. Part of it is suffering. That's not surprising. We are starting to turn off the spigots on a $1.8T federal deficit. We've deported almost 3/4 of a percentage point of our population. Hard for demand to surge in an environment like that.

transitioning.....
FLBear5630
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whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

boognish_bear said:



It is dangerously invested in only a few tech firms. If tech tanks, the whole thing tanks.

Won't tank for a while. Too much investment money coming in the next 48-72 months on the AI initiative.

2029-2030 is the timeframe to watch.

The estimates I am hearing from workforce development is that 30 to 50% of work will be done by AI, allowing people to move to more higher value jobs. From what I can see the answer is going to be what are the "higher value" jobs that AI will allow us to move to? Will enough people be able to do it? And will there be enough to support the numbers we are talking.

Funny, we talk AI and growth of 3%, but then we play tariff games and immigration games that send a different message. How do we hit 3% growth a year without expanding markets through a globalized system? And if we don't are we setting up a Schact economy deficit financing like Germany in the 30's, which has to continually expand or will fall in on itself.


Geez, we have f-ed this up since 2019...
boognish_bear
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FLBear5630
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boognish_bear said:



Fast food costs as much as a sit down restaurant or cooking at home.
boognish_bear
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FLBear5630 said:

boognish_bear said:



Fast food costs as much as a sit down restaurant or cooking at home.


Absolutely. Mentally I still think of fast food like five or six bucks for a combo meal. I get sticker shock every time I see 12+ dollars.
KaiBear
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FLBear5630 said:

boognish_bear said:



Fast food costs as much as a sit down restaurant or cooking at home.

Agreed

Even the local Taco Bell is closed half the time.
FLBear5630
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KaiBear said:

FLBear5630 said:

boognish_bear said:



Fast food costs as much as a sit down restaurant or cooking at home.

Agreed

Even the local Taco Bell is closed half the time.

Actually, I know we have discussed this before, if you eat that stuff on a regular basis or even semi-regularly it will destroy your body.
D. C. Bear
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FLBear5630 said:

boognish_bear said:



Fast food costs as much as a sit down restaurant or cooking at home.


Absolutely. More than cooking at home, and as much as a sit down restaurant. Only reason to grab it is if you are in a rush.
whiterock
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FLBear5630 said:

boognish_bear said:



Fast food costs as much as a sit down restaurant or cooking at home.

that, and......we have deported almost 1% of the population, in a context where 2-3% is considered strong economic growth, and federal deficit is 6% of GDP.

I would suggest the pain we are feeling is just the restructuring to the new normal. It is simply not possible to fix the illegal immigration problem and the federal deficit without massive economic pain.
BUDOS
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Ouch! On these points even I must agree.
FLBear5630
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whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

boognish_bear said:



Fast food costs as much as a sit down restaurant or cooking at home.

that, and......we have deported almost 1% of the population, in a context where 2-3% is considered strong economic growth, and federal deficit is 6% of GDP.

I would suggest the pain we are feeling is just the restructuring to the new normal. It is simply not possible to fix the illegal immigration problem and the federal deficit without massive economic pain.

I don't disagree. We agree on what is wrong and even on the solutions of most of it. My concerns is how he is doing it, his disregard for the laws in place and his attempts to expand Executive Power.

In all fairness, Congress is not helping. Johnson has pretty much rolled over, the Dems will not cross the aisle and they are more interested in their own wealth than doing the job they were elected.
boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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whiterock
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FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

boognish_bear said:



Fast food costs as much as a sit down restaurant or cooking at home.

that, and......we have deported almost 1% of the population, in a context where 2-3% is considered strong economic growth, and federal deficit is 6% of GDP.

I would suggest the pain we are feeling is just the restructuring to the new normal. It is simply not possible to fix the illegal immigration problem and the federal deficit without massive economic pain.

I don't disagree. We agree on what is wrong and even on the solutions of most of it. My concerns is how he is doing it, his disregard for the laws in place and his attempts to expand Executive Power.

In all fairness, Congress is not helping. Johnson has pretty much rolled over, the Dems will not cross the aisle and they are more interested in their own wealth than doing the job they were elected.

the laws in place say they should all be deported.
FLBear5630
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whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

boognish_bear said:



Fast food costs as much as a sit down restaurant or cooking at home.

that, and......we have deported almost 1% of the population, in a context where 2-3% is considered strong economic growth, and federal deficit is 6% of GDP.

I would suggest the pain we are feeling is just the restructuring to the new normal. It is simply not possible to fix the illegal immigration problem and the federal deficit without massive economic pain.

I don't disagree. We agree on what is wrong and even on the solutions of most of it. My concerns is how he is doing it, his disregard for the laws in place and his attempts to expand Executive Power.

In all fairness, Congress is not helping. Johnson has pretty much rolled over, the Dems will not cross the aisle and they are more interested in their own wealth than doing the job they were elected.

the laws in place say they should all be deported.

You know I am not talking immigration...
whiterock
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FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

boognish_bear said:



Fast food costs as much as a sit down restaurant or cooking at home.

that, and......we have deported almost 1% of the population, in a context where 2-3% is considered strong economic growth, and federal deficit is 6% of GDP.

I would suggest the pain we are feeling is just the restructuring to the new normal. It is simply not possible to fix the illegal immigration problem and the federal deficit without massive economic pain.

I don't disagree. We agree on what is wrong and even on the solutions of most of it. My concerns is how he is doing it, his disregard for the laws in place and his attempts to expand Executive Power.

In all fairness, Congress is not helping. Johnson has pretty much rolled over, the Dems will not cross the aisle and they are more interested in their own wealth than doing the job they were elected.

the laws in place say they should all be deported.

You know I am not talking immigration...

I know you can't stand him, but he's not done anything that hasn't been squarely within law. Keeps racking up wins in court. He's got one I think he'll lose (birthright citizenship) and one that could go either way (tariffs). Other than that, he's squarely in the mainstream.
boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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