Recession

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FLBear5630
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In reply to boognish_bear • 5:59p, 10/21/24
boognish_bear said:
Wonder how many jobs that will equate to

Watch Other People's Money...

Somebody was THE best buggy whip manufacturer at one time. Not using new technology is not the answer, the answer is finding new industries for the workers that are being displaced by the technology.

It has to be skills similar to what they do, coal miner and machinist are not going to write code. The workforce has to adapt, not stymie the advances in technology. Spend our money there. That is productive.
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boognish_bear
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 6:03p, 10/21/24
FLBear5630 said:
boognish_bear said:
Wonder how many jobs that will equate to

Watch Other People's Money...

Somebody was THE best buggy whip manufacturer at one time. Not using new technology is not the answer, the answer is finding new industries for the workers that are being displaced by the technology.

It has to be skills similar to what they do, coal miner and machinist are not going to write code. The workforce has to adapt, not stymie the advances in technology. Spend our money there. That is productive.


FWIW.... I'm not complaining about the progress or innovation. Just curious how many warehouse jobs that will displace.

I have heard Elon talk about the eventual possibility of almost all work being automated and the need for a universal basic income. Interesting thought journey.
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historian
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In reply to boognish_bear • 9:15p, 10/21/24
One of the richest people on the planet proposing a form of socialism! What is the world coming to!

It's a recipe for disaster they cannot work.
“Incline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
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Oldbear83
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In reply to boognish_bear • 10:22p, 10/21/24
boognish_bear said:
FLBear5630 said:
boognish_bear said:
Wonder how many jobs that will equate to

Watch Other People's Money...

Somebody was THE best buggy whip manufacturer at one time. Not using new technology is not the answer, the answer is finding new industries for the workers that are being displaced by the technology.

It has to be skills similar to what they do, coal miner and machinist are not going to write code. The workforce has to adapt, not stymie the advances in technology. Spend our money there. That is productive.


FWIW.... I'm not complaining about the progress or innovation. Just curious how many warehouse jobs that will displace.

I have heard Elon talk about the eventual possibility of almost all work being automated and the need for a universal basic income. Interesting thought journey.
'All work being automated' is something which cannot ever happen, and - if you think about it - thank God for that.
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boognish_bear
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12:12a, 10/22/24
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FLBear5630
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In reply to Oldbear83 • 7:26a, 10/22/24
Oldbear83 said:
boognish_bear said:
FLBear5630 said:
boognish_bear said:
Wonder how many jobs that will equate to

Watch Other People's Money...

Somebody was THE best buggy whip manufacturer at one time. Not using new technology is not the answer, the answer is finding new industries for the workers that are being displaced by the technology.

It has to be skills similar to what they do, coal miner and machinist are not going to write code. The workforce has to adapt, not stymie the advances in technology. Spend our money there. That is productive.


FWIW.... I'm not complaining about the progress or innovation. Just curious how many warehouse jobs that will displace.

I have heard Elon talk about the eventual possibility of almost all work being automated and the need for a universal basic income. Interesting thought journey.
'All work being automated' is something which cannot ever happen, and - if you think about it - thank God for that.
I agree.

A concept I find interesting is the use of robotics and AI in space. We may end up living Blade Runner...
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4th and Inches
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 7:48a, 10/22/24
FLBear5630 said:
Oldbear83 said:
boognish_bear said:
FLBear5630 said:
boognish_bear said:
Wonder how many jobs that will equate to

Watch Other People's Money...

Somebody was THE best buggy whip manufacturer at one time. Not using new technology is not the answer, the answer is finding new industries for the workers that are being displaced by the technology.

It has to be skills similar to what they do, coal miner and machinist are not going to write code. The workforce has to adapt, not stymie the advances in technology. Spend our money there. That is productive.


FWIW.... I'm not complaining about the progress or innovation. Just curious how many warehouse jobs that will displace.

I have heard Elon talk about the eventual possibility of almost all work being automated and the need for a universal basic income. Interesting thought journey.
'All work being automated' is something which cannot ever happen, and - if you think about it - thank God for that.
I agree.

A concept I find interesting is the use of robotics and AI in space. We may end up living Blade Runner...
open the door Hal
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boykin_spaniel
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In reply to Oldbear83 • 10:37a, 10/22/24
AI isn't taking anyone's job yet. Someone harnessing AI will be taking peoples jobs though.
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FLBear5630
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 11:14a, 10/22/24
4th and Inches said:
FLBear5630 said:
Oldbear83 said:
boognish_bear said:
FLBear5630 said:
boognish_bear said:
Wonder how many jobs that will equate to

Watch Other People's Money...

Somebody was THE best buggy whip manufacturer at one time. Not using new technology is not the answer, the answer is finding new industries for the workers that are being displaced by the technology.

It has to be skills similar to what they do, coal miner and machinist are not going to write code. The workforce has to adapt, not stymie the advances in technology. Spend our money there. That is productive.


FWIW.... I'm not complaining about the progress or innovation. Just curious how many warehouse jobs that will displace.

I have heard Elon talk about the eventual possibility of almost all work being automated and the need for a universal basic income. Interesting thought journey.
'All work being automated' is something which cannot ever happen, and - if you think about it - thank God for that.
I agree.

A concept I find interesting is the use of robotics and AI in space. We may end up living Blade Runner...
open the door Hal
I was talking more about construction in inhospitable environments. Making them hospitable for humans and mining.
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4th and Inches
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 11:36a, 10/22/24
FLBear5630 said:
4th and Inches said:
FLBear5630 said:
Oldbear83 said:
boognish_bear said:
FLBear5630 said:
boognish_bear said:
Wonder how many jobs that will equate to

Watch Other People's Money...

Somebody was THE best buggy whip manufacturer at one time. Not using new technology is not the answer, the answer is finding new industries for the workers that are being displaced by the technology.

It has to be skills similar to what they do, coal miner and machinist are not going to write code. The workforce has to adapt, not stymie the advances in technology. Spend our money there. That is productive.


FWIW.... I'm not complaining about the progress or innovation. Just curious how many warehouse jobs that will displace.

I have heard Elon talk about the eventual possibility of almost all work being automated and the need for a universal basic income. Interesting thought journey.
'All work being automated' is something which cannot ever happen, and - if you think about it - thank God for that.
I agree.

A concept I find interesting is the use of robotics and AI in space. We may end up living Blade Runner...
open the door Hal
I was talking more about construction in inhospitable environments. Making them hospitable for humans and mining.
understood..

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Jacques Strap
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In reply to boognish_bear • 4:21p, 10/23/24
boognish_bear said:
I will never understand how people smart enough to get high paying jobs like this can not manage their money better. They could live a very comfortable lifestyle with just a few adjustments.

If you have never read the book The Psychology of Money, give it a try. Or search Morgan House on YouTube and watch a podcast interview. One of my all-time favorites.

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Oldbear83
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In reply to boykin_spaniel • 6:45p, 10/23/24
boykin_spaniel said:
AI isn't taking anyone's job yet. Someone harnessing AI will be taking peoples jobs though.
Well, that depends on who you ask. The company I work for, for example, is incorporating an AI-assisted cash application/collections tool, and because of its cost there is already talk of reducing headcount in my department, on the assumption they 'won't be needed'.

Even though I see it's the future, I sympathize with those dockworkers worried that technology will end their careers. Sure, technology will make things better for customers, the industry, and the next generation of workers, but the guys more than halfway into their career get the worst of things.

A lot of people never think much about the people who cannot simply pivot and go on as if nothing bad happened.
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boykin_spaniel
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In reply to Oldbear83 • 6:59p, 10/23/24
Someone is going to be operating the AI and making sure it functions as it should, so that person will be taking the jobs. You're right, it does suck for the folks set in their ways. New jobs arise like the Industrial Revolution and unfortunately some people get tossed to the curb until they can pivot and learn a new skill or try and find a company holding onto the old ways…
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Oldbear83
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In reply to boykin_spaniel • 7:18p, 10/23/24
boykin_spaniel said:
Someone is going to be operating the AI and making sure it functions as it should, so that person will be taking the jobs. You're right, it does suck for the folks set in their ways. New jobs arise like the Industrial Revolution and unfortunately some people get tossed to the curb until they can pivot and learn a new skill or try and find a company holding onto the old ways…
** sigh **

"Set in their ways" is a cheap shot at people never trained for the technology which came in and replaced them.

And in many cases, companies choose to hire young people on the assumption that young people are automatically better than training older employees.

Just one more example of age discrimination.

But I guess it's OK as long as the person losing their ability to work isn't you or someone you like ...
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boognish_bear
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7:57p, 10/23/24
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4th and Inches
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In reply to boognish_bear • 8:02p, 10/23/24
boognish_bear said:
floundering is a noble profession and a yummy fish
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boognish_bear
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8:40p, 10/23/24
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boykin_spaniel
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In reply to Oldbear83 • 10:51p, 10/23/24
Didn't mean to sound like I have zero empathy. It's just the unfortunate time we live in.
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FLBear5630
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In reply to boognish_bear • 11:58a, 10/24/24
boognish_bear said:
I have seen this the last 10 years. When we interview, the women have kick-ass resumes and the guys do not. I think 5 of the last 6 hires have been women. Even entry level, the guys seem to talk more about sports teams they were on versus the women with internships and advanced degrees. Guys really have to step it up, it has changed the work world.
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trey3216
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In reply to Frank Galvin • 12:25p, 10/24/24
Frank Galvin said:
4th and Inches said:
Frank Galvin said:
Doc Holliday said:
Frank Galvin said:
Doc Holliday said:





The S & P that you were so worried about is up over 20% YTD. Unemployment is falling. Labor force participation rate has gone from 61.3% at Biden's inaugatation to 62.7% for the end of August. wage growth continues. Inflation contiues to cool.

But the world is on fire, right?
Lol, we're already in phase 2 of a global recession.

All global markets went from "the economy is soft and resilient and we have a safe landing" to "holy sh.it, how fast do we need to cut rates?!"

The latest jolts estimate has shown hiring has crashed the second time in three months.

The feds are behind. The real data shows we're facing layoffs and no hiring.
There three major bubbles: housing, equity and credit. Ya'll aren't ready for what's coming.


You cry wolf constantly. You may be right once every 15 years or so. Like a broken clock occasionally displays the right time.
the economy is so good i got to pay 3.89 for a monster yesterday for one of my workers, they used to 2.49 when Trump was in office at the same store.
79-89cent fountain drinks are 1.29 now.

I can name dozens of examples of daily life expenses are now 125-140% of what they were 4 years ago but do go on about how good everything is because your wages went up 3-5%

https://www.poynter.org/reporting-editing/2024/wage-growth-vs-inflation-biden-presidency/

Average wages have outpaced inflation over the last two years and overall versus prepandemic levels. The first two years of Biden's presidency inflation was ahead of wage growth. That is the actual economic data.
Yeahhhhhhh.....no....

According the BLS, the median income was $67,521 in 2020...

For this year, the median income is about $59,228...

Adjusted for inflation over those years and you have a median income of right at $49,000 in 2020 terms. That's disgustingly terrible.
Mr. Treehorn treats objects like women, man.
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Frank Galvin
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In reply to trey3216 • 1:20p, 10/24/24
trey3216 said:
Frank Galvin said:
4th and Inches said:
Frank Galvin said:
Doc Holliday said:
Frank Galvin said:
Doc Holliday said:





The S & P that you were so worried about is up over 20% YTD. Unemployment is falling. Labor force participation rate has gone from 61.3% at Biden's inaugatation to 62.7% for the end of August. wage growth continues. Inflation contiues to cool.

But the world is on fire, right?
Lol, we're already in phase 2 of a global recession.

All global markets went from "the economy is soft and resilient and we have a safe landing" to "holy sh.it, how fast do we need to cut rates?!"

The latest jolts estimate has shown hiring has crashed the second time in three months.

The feds are behind. The real data shows we're facing layoffs and no hiring.
There three major bubbles: housing, equity and credit. Ya'll aren't ready for what's coming.


You cry wolf constantly. You may be right once every 15 years or so. Like a broken clock occasionally displays the right time.
the economy is so good i got to pay 3.89 for a monster yesterday for one of my workers, they used to 2.49 when Trump was in office at the same store.
79-89cent fountain drinks are 1.29 now.

I can name dozens of examples of daily life expenses are now 125-140% of what they were 4 years ago but do go on about how good everything is because your wages went up 3-5%

https://www.poynter.org/reporting-editing/2024/wage-growth-vs-inflation-biden-presidency/

Average wages have outpaced inflation over the last two years and overall versus prepandemic levels. The first two years of Biden's presidency inflation was ahead of wage growth. That is the actual economic data.
Yeahhhhhhh.....no....

According the BLS, the median income was $67,521 in 2020...

For this year, the median income is about $59,228...

Adjusted for inflation over those years and you have a median income of right at $49,000 in 2020 terms. That's disgustingly terrible.
Using the pandemic year for a baseline is probably not a good idea. At least if you want an apples-to apples comparison. What has happened vs. 2019? A link would be nice also.
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trey3216
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In reply to Frank Galvin • 1:25p, 10/24/24
Frank Galvin said:
trey3216 said:
Frank Galvin said:
4th and Inches said:
Frank Galvin said:
Doc Holliday said:
Frank Galvin said:
Doc Holliday said:





The S & P that you were so worried about is up over 20% YTD. Unemployment is falling. Labor force participation rate has gone from 61.3% at Biden's inaugatation to 62.7% for the end of August. wage growth continues. Inflation contiues to cool.

But the world is on fire, right?
Lol, we're already in phase 2 of a global recession.

All global markets went from "the economy is soft and resilient and we have a safe landing" to "holy sh.it, how fast do we need to cut rates?!"

The latest jolts estimate has shown hiring has crashed the second time in three months.

The feds are behind. The real data shows we're facing layoffs and no hiring.
There three major bubbles: housing, equity and credit. Ya'll aren't ready for what's coming.


You cry wolf constantly. You may be right once every 15 years or so. Like a broken clock occasionally displays the right time.
the economy is so good i got to pay 3.89 for a monster yesterday for one of my workers, they used to 2.49 when Trump was in office at the same store.
79-89cent fountain drinks are 1.29 now.

I can name dozens of examples of daily life expenses are now 125-140% of what they were 4 years ago but do go on about how good everything is because your wages went up 3-5%

https://www.poynter.org/reporting-editing/2024/wage-growth-vs-inflation-biden-presidency/

Average wages have outpaced inflation over the last two years and overall versus prepandemic levels. The first two years of Biden's presidency inflation was ahead of wage growth. That is the actual economic data.
Yeahhhhhhh.....no....

According the BLS, the median income was $67,521 in 2020...

For this year, the median income is about $59,228...

Adjusted for inflation over those years and you have a median income of right at $49,000 in 2020 terms. That's disgustingly terrible.
Using the pandemic year for a baseline is probably not a good idea. At least if you want an apples-to apples comparison. What has happened vs. 2019? A link would be nice also.
I imagine median income from 2020 was slightly higher than in 2019, so that point is moot.

but here are your links....

https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2021/demo/p60-273.html
https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/smart-money/average-salary-in-us
Mr. Treehorn treats objects like women, man.
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Oldbear83
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In reply to trey3216 • 1:33p, 10/24/24
trey3216 said:
Frank Galvin said:
trey3216 said:
Frank Galvin said:
4th and Inches said:
Frank Galvin said:
Doc Holliday said:
Frank Galvin said:
Doc Holliday said:





The S & P that you were so worried about is up over 20% YTD. Unemployment is falling. Labor force participation rate has gone from 61.3% at Biden's inaugatation to 62.7% for the end of August. wage growth continues. Inflation contiues to cool.

But the world is on fire, right?
Lol, we're already in phase 2 of a global recession.

All global markets went from "the economy is soft and resilient and we have a safe landing" to "holy sh.it, how fast do we need to cut rates?!"

The latest jolts estimate has shown hiring has crashed the second time in three months.

The feds are behind. The real data shows we're facing layoffs and no hiring.
There three major bubbles: housing, equity and credit. Ya'll aren't ready for what's coming.


You cry wolf constantly. You may be right once every 15 years or so. Like a broken clock occasionally displays the right time.
the economy is so good i got to pay 3.89 for a monster yesterday for one of my workers, they used to 2.49 when Trump was in office at the same store.
79-89cent fountain drinks are 1.29 now.

I can name dozens of examples of daily life expenses are now 125-140% of what they were 4 years ago but do go on about how good everything is because your wages went up 3-5%

https://www.poynter.org/reporting-editing/2024/wage-growth-vs-inflation-biden-presidency/

Average wages have outpaced inflation over the last two years and overall versus prepandemic levels. The first two years of Biden's presidency inflation was ahead of wage growth. That is the actual economic data.
Yeahhhhhhh.....no....

According the BLS, the median income was $67,521 in 2020...

For this year, the median income is about $59,228...

Adjusted for inflation over those years and you have a median income of right at $49,000 in 2020 terms. That's disgustingly terrible.
Using the pandemic year for a baseline is probably not a good idea. At least if you want an apples-to apples comparison. What has happened vs. 2019? A link would be nice also.
I imagine median income from 2020 was slightly higher than in 2019, so that point is moot.

but here are your links....

https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2021/demo/p60-273.html
https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/smart-money/average-salary-in-us


I also thought it was amusing that Frank demanded support when he provided no support for his own claim.

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boykin_spaniel
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In reply to boognish_bear • 1:44p, 10/24/24
Less men are pursuing tertiary education and advanced degrees. This isn't necessarily a problem as long as they are still pursuing quality jobs such as a trade or the military. Unfortunately, there does seem to be a faction not pursuing much of anything.

Another interesting buy product of less men in college and more women is the challenge of dating. College educated women want to date college educated men and there aren't as many. College educated women are also becoming increasingly left leaning politically and expecting a partner with similar views while men are leaning more right. Men care less about partner political views but when Steve the electrician didn't go to college and is a conservative it makes it much harder to find a date for him and the pool of women looking for a spouse.
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Frank Galvin
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In reply to trey3216 • 4:26p, 10/24/24
trey3216 said:
Frank Galvin said:
trey3216 said:
Frank Galvin said:
4th and Inches said:
Frank Galvin said:
Doc Holliday said:
Frank Galvin said:
Doc Holliday said:





The S & P that you were so worried about is up over 20% YTD. Unemployment is falling. Labor force participation rate has gone from 61.3% at Biden's inaugatation to 62.7% for the end of August. wage growth continues. Inflation contiues to cool.

But the world is on fire, right?
Lol, we're already in phase 2 of a global recession.

All global markets went from "the economy is soft and resilient and we have a safe landing" to "holy sh.it, how fast do we need to cut rates?!"

The latest jolts estimate has shown hiring has crashed the second time in three months.

The feds are behind. The real data shows we're facing layoffs and no hiring.
There three major bubbles: housing, equity and credit. Ya'll aren't ready for what's coming.


You cry wolf constantly. You may be right once every 15 years or so. Like a broken clock occasionally displays the right time.
the economy is so good i got to pay 3.89 for a monster yesterday for one of my workers, they used to 2.49 when Trump was in office at the same store.
79-89cent fountain drinks are 1.29 now.

I can name dozens of examples of daily life expenses are now 125-140% of what they were 4 years ago but do go on about how good everything is because your wages went up 3-5%

https://www.poynter.org/reporting-editing/2024/wage-growth-vs-inflation-biden-presidency/

Average wages have outpaced inflation over the last two years and overall versus prepandemic levels. The first two years of Biden's presidency inflation was ahead of wage growth. That is the actual economic data.
Yeahhhhhhh.....no....

According the BLS, the median income was $67,521 in 2020...

For this year, the median income is about $59,228...

Adjusted for inflation over those years and you have a median income of right at $49,000 in 2020 terms. That's disgustingly terrible.
Using the pandemic year for a baseline is probably not a good idea. At least if you want an apples-to apples comparison. What has happened vs. 2019? A link would be nice also.
I imagine median income from 2020 was slightly higher than in 2019, so that point is moot.

but here are your links....

https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2021/demo/p60-273.html
https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/smart-money/average-salary-in-us
Your first reference is to the median household income. Your second reference is to the median income for individual wage earners. As I suspected, apples compared to something that's definitely not an apple.

This link explains what I was talking about: real wages rose from 2019 to 2023: https://home.treasury.gov/news/featured-stories/the-purchasing-power-of-american-households.

On the other hand, some stats show real wages fell from 2020 to 2022. It is hard to say which is right because the first gives Biden credit for some Trump-era growth, while the second ignores the impacts of the pandemic.

However, the overarching point is that regardless of who gets blame or credit, people who earn the median are better off today than in 2019. So, it is hard to see how the Biden economy is the disaster that Trump has made it out to be.
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Jacques Strap
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6:06p, 10/28/24
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historian
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In reply to Jacques Strap • 6:36p, 10/28/24
Divine intervention??
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boognish_bear
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7:47a, 10/29/24
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FLBear5630
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In reply to boognish_bear • 11:43a, 10/29/24
boognish_bear said:
Are the reasons the same? 2008 was sub-prime loans, people that could not pay back.

Are these losses market losses? Are they walking away?
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historian
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12:41p, 10/29/24
Bidenflation is devastating

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historian
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12:43p, 10/29/24

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trey3216
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 12:46p, 10/29/24
FLBear5630 said:
boognish_bear said:
Are the reasons the same? 2008 was sub-prime loans, people that could not pay back.

Are these losses market losses? Are they walking away?
THey are probably mark to market losses as of right now, and they are almost certainly entirely in the commercial space (either Class A or a combination across the commercial spectrum). I don't see recovery for M2M losses in the commercial space anytime soon.
Mr. Treehorn treats objects like women, man.
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boognish_bear
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4:13p, 10/29/24
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Jacques Strap
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4:28p, 10/29/24
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boykin_spaniel
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In reply to trey3216 • 10:21p, 10/29/24
There is an enormous amount of unfilled office space. No idea what they(anyone and everyone) do with it in the long term but definitely not great on a banks balance sheet in the short term.
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