The future automation of the workforce

121,334 Views | 1702 Replies | Last: 6 hrs ago by boognish_bear
EatMoreSalmon
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boognish_bear said:



The $174 billion quoted here is spread out over 50 years. The previous projection was $80 billion.



I believe this is a real problem. The lack of new major water reservoirs - I have seen that the two latest are the first in thirty years - is a real problem for the growing cities of east and central Texas. Even without data centers, there would be a heavy need for more water for industry and power generation. Without these issues being addressed quickly, growth in Texas will come to a screeching halt.
whiterock
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boognish_bear said:

1

The $174 billion quoted here is spread out over 50 years. The previous projection was $80 billion.



Yes. We have water problems, but not a lack of water. The deficiency is the lack of infrastructure to bring the water from where it is to where it's needed. One of my rolodex sources is a guy in the infrastructure dept at BRA , the son of a dear friend. He and other sources of information on water are telling me that this session or next, Lege will adopt a water policy to justify the funding to start transitioning water systems away from ground water sources (and to start tapping & piping as yet unused groundwater reservoirs.

As we see in so many of these DC discussions, DC critics see a headline and engage in confirmation bias without actually reading the article carefully to understand what it says. The link does not say "we're out of water." It says stuff like:

"Population growth, extreme weather, and economic development needs are all increasing demands on our infrastructure, and the state is going to need more water, sooner," Kirkle said. "This is all while water projects are becoming more costly and complex because the easiest and cheapest local projects have already been developed." Translation: most water systems, particularly rural systems, are based on wells drilled in the geographic center of a CCN. That made a ton of sense when they were first developed 50-199 years ago. Such minimizes the amount of pumps & pipes needed. Short runs of pipe, 2-3 miles long, which minimizes the pumping requirements. And the artesian water is already well filtered, easy to purify. Problem is, those well are overtaxed. They're now declining. And nearly all of those CCNs do not have the revenue base needed to run a new pipe 6-10 miles to collect water from a new source (in most cases a river) nor the more powerful pumps to move the water that distance, nor the more complicated purification systems need to treat "dirtier" surface water. I mean we're talking about systems that have 500-1000 meters generating less than $100/mo per meter on average. No way they can float a $100m water project. So they're stuck, unless they get help.

The Brazos River dumps 5.4 BILLION gallons of water into the Gulf every day. Every drop of it is owned by someone via right or a contract. Very little of the Brazos is used because it is almost brackish with respect to treatment. You have to desalinate and remove other dissolved solids or your purification plant will gum up with scale. That's. a $30-50m spend before the purification even starts. Takes a BIG entity to finance that. I can show countless examples of small CCNs which literally touch the Brazos yet cannot use a drop of it because they cannot afford the equipment to do so (see above). so their wells drop feet or inches every year and they can't do any thing about it. That's where the DataCenters are a godsend - they bring the tax base required to develop the infrastructure necessary to overcome those infrastructure limitations.

And then you have lots of cases like Corpus where they are literally surrounded by water but failed to act in time. They finally put together a plan to desalinate brackish water from the bay. Then the environmentalists sued them and stopped the project, because Corpus was planning to discharge the super-salty refuse back into the brackish bay, potentially changing the ecosystem into a salt water system thereby destroying plants & animals depending upon brackish habitat. All Corpus had to do was spend a little more money to pump the waste water into the Gulf. But they short-armed it. And now they're screwed. Not really a water supply problem. Just bad civil administration.

We do not have a shortage of water.
We have a shortage of water pipe.
Read the article again. That's what it actually says.
boognish_bear
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So the government hands us money to buy goods and services being made/performed by robots and ai. That money goes to corporations...and then a portion back to the government...and then recycled back out to the non-working humans to spend again? I don't get how this works long term.

boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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Oldbear83
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boognish_bear said:



If someone genuinely believes that the mega-billionaires who used every means possible to get AI installed in every company in every country, will now decide they have an obligation to make sure everyone gets a fair amount of money to live on, please see your mental health professional about delusion medication.
boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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whiterock
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EatMoreSalmon said:

boognish_bear said:



The $174 billion quoted here is spread out over 50 years. The previous projection was $80 billion.



I believe this is a real problem. The lack of new major water reservoirs - I have seen that the two latest are the first in thirty years - is a real problem for the growing cities of east and central Texas. Even without data centers, there would be a heavy need for more water for industry and power generation. Without these issues being addressed quickly, growth in Texas will come to a screeching halt.

That is a problem, but there is a partial solution in the works = the reallocation of Lake Whitney. Link is a preliminary plan to make 139,000 acre feet currently reserved for electrical generation (which hasn't happened in decades in the BRA system) and move it to the water supply pool. To put that quantity of water in perspective, total capacity of Lake Waco is 79,000 acre feet. That brings the total available pool for public water supply the functional equivalent of over 2 new Lake Wacos, for basically the cost of ink. It's a tremendous amount of water. And there's still an enormous amount of water retained in the hydro pool.

Sadly, most small water systems who are maxed out on their drawing limit on declining wells cannot afford the cost of the infrastructure necessary to exploit the new resource. State of Tx is going to have to come up with a plan to fund it. Hence my statement that we do not have a shortage of water; we have a shortage of water pipe.

https://media.defense.gov/2025/Sep/17/2003801266/-1/-1/1/WHITNEY%20REALLOCATION%20-%20FAQS%20-%20FINAL_9.16.2025.PDF

Note: You will often see water referred to in "acre feet." An acre foot of water is one acre land with one foot of water on top of it. It equals 325,000 gallons of water. So to grasp the scale of water involve here into gallons (units the mind can more easily comprehend), you'd have to multiply 241,000 x 325,000 = 78 billion gallons of water. And that's a pool, not a flow rate. Actual flow of Brazos water into the Gulf is 5.4billion gallons per day. That's about 3000 data centers worth of water.

Not advocating 3000 new data centers. Just illustrating the amounts involved. using 10% of the water to build 300 data centers would generate $4.5 TRILLION dollars of tax base.

Laying pipe for public purposes requires TAX BASE.

(not even advocating for 300 DCs in the Brazos River basin. Just illustrating the proper context for evaluation. It's a fair trade to build DCs and use the tax base to lay the pipe to build infrastructure to take the water from where it is to where it's needed. The key is to match the number of DCs to the size of the need. Fe dozen DC in the Brazos basin would fund water projects to save hundreds of small failing water systems.)
FLBear5630
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Why doesn't the private sector build that into the deal? You guys pay for it? With the bonuses these companies are paying their execs and profits they are making on energy and data they can do this project easily.

Write it into your proposal. Better yet, put it in the Developer's Agreement and tie it to the deed.
boognish_bear
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cowboycwr
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We don't have a water issue???? The lines on the rocks clearly showing the lake levels dropping shows otherwise.

Another case of him pushing a narrative and telling us not to trust our eyes but to trust him because "he knows" and we must all be idiots for believing raw data right in front of us.
EatMoreSalmon
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whiterock said:

EatMoreSalmon said:

boognish_bear said:



The $174 billion quoted here is spread out over 50 years. The previous projection was $80 billion.



I believe this is a real problem. The lack of new major water reservoirs - I have seen that the two latest are the first in thirty years - is a real problem for the growing cities of east and central Texas. Even without data centers, there would be a heavy need for more water for industry and power generation. Without these issues being addressed quickly, growth in Texas will come to a screeching halt.

That is a problem, but there is a partial solution in the works = the reallocation of Lake Whitney. Link is a preliminary plan to make 139,000 acre feet currently reserved for electrical generation (which hasn't happened in decades in the BRA system) and move it to the water supply pool. To put that quantity of water in perspective, total capacity of Lake Waco is 79,000 acre feet. That brings the total available pool for public water supply the functional equivalent of THREE new Lake Wacos, for basically the cost of ink. It's a tremendous amount of water. And there's still an enormous amount of water retained in the hydro pool.

Sadly, most small water systems who are maxed out on their drawing limit on declining wells cannot afford the cost of the infrastructure necessary to exploit the new resource. State of Tx is going to have to come up with a plan to fund it. Hence my statement that we do not have a shortage of water; we have a shortage of water pipe.

https://media.defense.gov/2025/Sep/17/2003801266/-1/-1/1/WHITNEY%20REALLOCATION%20-%20FAQS%20-%20FINAL_9.16.2025.PDF

Note: You will often see water referred to in "acre feet." An acre foot of water is one acre land with one foot of water on top of it. It equals 325,000 gallons of water. So to grasp the scale of water involve here into gallons (units the mind can more easily comprehend), you'd have to multiply 241,000 x 325,000 = 78 billion gallons of water. And that's a pool, not a flow rate. Actual flow of Brazos water into the Gulf is 5.4billion gallons per day. That's about 3000 data centers worth of water.

Not advocating 3000 new data centers. Just illustrating the amounts involved. using 10% of the water to build 300 data centers would generate $4.5 TRILLION dollars of tax base.

Laying pipe for public purposes requires TAX BASE.

(not even advocating for 300 DCs in the Brazos River basin. Just illustrating the proper context for evaluation. It's a fair trade to build DCs and use the tax base to lay the pipe to build infrastructure to take the water from where it is to where it's needed. The key is to match the number of DCs to the size of the need. Fe dozen DC in the Brazos basin would fund water projects to save hundreds of small failing water systems.)


Texas needs more water reservoirs where possible. It needs more power generation where possible. Whatever industry wakes up the dead on these issues would be a boon. I know DFW needs to be - and perhaps they are - going as fast as they can to get more lakes. Hard and expensive and comes with a lot of trouble over lost land. But there really isn't much choice.

Nuclear plants need to get out from under the endless demands of having to change approved designs if some new part design of any kind comes out during construction. Imagine having to rebuild a house three times over before you can even live there.
FLBear5630
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Sorry, if they find a design change in construction of a Nuclear Plant, they better go back to design.

There are some things where there is NO negotiations. In the top 10 would always be Airplanes, Dams, and Nuclear Plants...
EatMoreSalmon
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FLBear5630 said:

Sorry, if they find a design change in construction of a Nuclear Plant, they better go back to design.

There are some things where there is NO negotiations. In the top 10 would always be Airplanes, Dams, and Nuclear Plants...


Read up on it. It's not a realistic design change requirement. It is the major cause for nuclear plant years long delays and massive cost overruns.

Designs will always be improving. It's more like if your home had to have all the latest energy efficient designs before it could be used. You have the best available wall designs built, but before you finish out the flooring, you're told a new design is available that would improve the home's efficiency by 1% and you must replace your walls - which means taking down the roof or engineering a way to put the new walls in a little at a time.
Or a new pipe is available that keeps hot water hot 3% longer, so you have to rip out all the plumbing and start over, tearing out floors and walls to install the new pipe.

Nuclear plants can be very safe without having ridiculous incremental improvements forced upon them as innovations move forward.
As the plant is maintained and later rebuilt after its lifespan, then the more effective improvements of that time can be used.
FLBear5630
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Agree with you 100% on most things, Nuke plant regulations being loosened is not one of them.

whiterock
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FLBear5630 said:

Why doesn't the private sector build that into the deal? You guys pay for it? With the bonuses these companies are paying their execs and profits they are making on energy and data they can do this project easily.

Write it into your proposal. Better yet, put it in the Developer's Agreement and tie it to the deed.

correct. On the half dozen I'm watching, there will be no abatements and no public debt for the new infrastructure build for the DC. But everyone, public or private interests, will be able to tap into that infrastructure on the way in. In addition to that, the DCs will increase the property tax base by orders of magnitude. In Texas, property tax is exclusively local revenue, and the new DC locations tend to NOT be in the urban areas, so many cases it's going where its needed most - the little guys who've watched economic development pass them by.

Temple just approved its third DC. All are smaller owner-occupied DCs and they're being put into existing industrial park developments, so the only infrastructure needs are upgrades. I presume Temple is requiring the DCs to fund the upgrades, but I don't track those projects. The larger hyperscale operations are buying more rural farmland, usually with proximity to existing power transmission lines. Then they'll bring in everything else they need from dozens of miles away if necessary (at their expense). The rural area makes the new infrastructure projects easier/cheaper, as they're not having to buy ROW and dig trenches thru urban/industrial development.

This DC expansion will force some new corollaries to Moore's Law. The rate of increase of computing speed is going to accelerate to warp speed, but the costs will not be going down. They may double every year or so due to the infrastructure spends. (That dynamic in some ways is conceptually similar to Bessent's plan to "grow the economy (data) faster than we grow the debt" (infrastructure spends).) The problems for local govts may come 4-6yrs down the road, when the supply of DC space approaches demand. Then, the abatement requests will come - "we need "X" percent off, or we will take this better offer in (insert city here).") So the opportunity for local govt is great, but they absolutely have to be prudent in how they plan to use the new tax base.

Of course none of this has touched the new power generation involved. DCs are now having to provide their own pre-grid power. So every 1gig DC will have at least a 1.5gig generator. Initially, they will be mostly natural gas. But mini-nuke plants are allegedly 2-3 years away from being comercially available.

Trump policy is to reindustrialize. It's going to take a lot of energy generation to do that. DCs will pay for much of it. We are asking them to bring at least 25% more generation capacity than they need, so it'll be there to add to the grid for future development.

whiterock
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new supply chains = new jobs.

whiterock
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a greater percentage of them domestic jobs.....

FLBear5630
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Temple is a good location for DCs. Central, good access, lots of water around, high data needs with Scott & White and Ft Hood close. Good for Temple, they have been searching since the 90's for a niche.

Used to live there...
FLBear5630
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The next question is the manufacturing mix, we need the combination of high tech, data AND hard goods.

I do agree with Trump that it would be a good move to get our "required" industries in the Western Hempisphere where we can control it easier. I think Mexico and South America will be on board, Canada?

I know you are not going to like this, but this is not too far from the original NAFTA vision floated by Reagan and ultimately but in practice by Clinton. Clinton had his bad points, but he was smart and he could work with people like Reagan and others. (Not saying he is good, bad or indifferent. Just he was at least willing to work across the aisle).

The North American Free Trade Agreement: Ronald Reagan's Vision Realized | The Heritage Foundation
boognish_bear
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Elon promises a "Universal High Income" for everyone. Let's suppose that means $10K per month for 100 million Americans.

Here's the math:

100 million people $10,000/month 12 months = $12 trillion per year.

To put that in context, total federal spending in fiscal year 2024 was roughly $6.75 trillion, and total federal revenue was about $4.9 trillion. So this single program would cost nearly twice the entire existing federal budget and about 2.5 all federal tax revenue. It would roughly triple total government spending overnight.

U.S. GDP is roughly $29 trillion. A $12 trillion UBI program would equal about 41% of total GDP -- being directed as cash transfers to a subset of the population. For comparison, all current federal transfer payments (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, veterans' benefits, etc.) combined run around $45 trillion.

The M2 money supply (cash, checking deposits, savings, money market funds) sits at roughly $2122 trillion. If the program were funded by money creation rather than taxes, injecting $12 trillion per year would expand M2 by roughly 55% in the first year alone. Even if a portion were funded through taxation (which just redistributes existing money), the sheer scale makes it nearly impossible to fund without massive monetary expansion.

The inflationary pressure would be enormous, for a few reinforcing reasons:
First, demand-side shock -- putting $10,000/month into 100 million hands would massively increase consumer spending, but the economy's productive capacity (factories, housing, workers, supply chains) can't scale anywhere near that fast. When far more dollars chase roughly the same quantity of goods, prices spike.

Second, labor supply contraction -- $120,000/year tax-free would exceed the median U.S. household income (~$80,000). Many workers would reduce hours or exit the workforce entirely, shrinking the supply side at the exact moment demand is surging. That's a double squeeze on prices.

Third, velocity effects -- lower-income recipients tend to spend transfer income quickly, so the velocity of money would increase, amplifying the inflationary effect beyond what the raw money supply numbers suggest.

A rough (and conservative) estimate: mainstream quantity-theory-of-money reasoning would suggest that a 55% expansion in money supply, combined with rising velocity and falling output, could produce annual inflation well into the double digits -- plausibly 3050%+ in the first year or two, potentially accelerating into a hyperinflationary spiral if sustained. Historical parallels (Weimar Germany, Zimbabwe, Venezuela) all involved governments printing money at scales far smaller relative to GDP, and still produced catastrophic inflation.

So no, Elon doesn't understand economics. And yes, a "Universal High Income" would quickly lead to hyperinflation and currency collapsing, thrusting almost everyone into extreme poverty.
boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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EatMoreSalmon
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FLBear5630 said:

Agree with you 100% on most things, Nuke plant regulations being loosened is not one of them.




The regulations we are talking about were designed to end nuclear plants, not really to make them safer.
EatMoreSalmon
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boognish_bear said:




Assimilation?
whiterock
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FLBear5630 said:

The next question is the manufacturing mix, we need the combination of high tech, data AND hard goods.

I do agree with Trump that it would be a good move to get our "required" industries in the Western Hempisphere where we can control it easier. I think Mexico and South America will be on board, Canada?

I know you are not going to like this, but this is not too far from the original NAFTA vision floated by Reagan and ultimately but in practice by Clinton. Clinton had his bad points, but he was smart and he could work with people like Reagan and others. (Not saying he is good, bad or indifferent. Just he was at least willing to work across the aisle).

The North American Free Trade Agreement: Ronald Reagan's Vision Realized | The Heritage Foundation

No problem with the concept, but beware the hidden trap of all-or-nothing false dilemmas. We will not be returning ALL manufacturing to the USA. But we will move a substantial percentage of our supply chain back. Companies will want to limit their exposure to tariffs. Certain things deemed critical....highest value items and most complicated processes will be done here. Etc.....

It'll be like that with the DCs. Sure, Elon will take some of them to outer space. It'll take 20 years or so to get to that point at any scale. And we'll never get 100% of DCs into space. Some tasks will make more sense in space, and some will make more sense on the ground. Etc.... division of labor is the natural order of things in a free economy. I'm not sure we even know enough yet to speculate on which tasks will make the most sense where.
whiterock
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boognish_bear said:



Elon promises a "Universal High Income" for everyone. Let's suppose that means $10K per month for 100 million Americans.

Here's the math:

100 million people $10,000/month 12 months = $12 trillion per year.

To put that in context, total federal spending in fiscal year 2024 was roughly $6.75 trillion, and total federal revenue was about $4.9 trillion. So this single program would cost nearly twice the entire existing federal budget and about 2.5 all federal tax revenue. It would roughly triple total government spending overnight.

U.S. GDP is roughly $29 trillion. A $12 trillion UBI program would equal about 41% of total GDP -- being directed as cash transfers to a subset of the population. For comparison, all current federal transfer payments (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, veterans' benefits, etc.) combined run around $45 trillion.

The M2 money supply (cash, checking deposits, savings, money market funds) sits at roughly $2122 trillion. If the program were funded by money creation rather than taxes, injecting $12 trillion per year would expand M2 by roughly 55% in the first year alone. Even if a portion were funded through taxation (which just redistributes existing money), the sheer scale makes it nearly impossible to fund without massive monetary expansion.

The inflationary pressure would be enormous, for a few reinforcing reasons:
First, demand-side shock -- putting $10,000/month into 100 million hands would massively increase consumer spending, but the economy's productive capacity (factories, housing, workers, supply chains) can't scale anywhere near that fast. When far more dollars chase roughly the same quantity of goods, prices spike.

Second, labor supply contraction -- $120,000/year tax-free would exceed the median U.S. household income (~$80,000). Many workers would reduce hours or exit the workforce entirely, shrinking the supply side at the exact moment demand is surging. That's a double squeeze on prices.

Third, velocity effects -- lower-income recipients tend to spend transfer income quickly, so the velocity of money would increase, amplifying the inflationary effect beyond what the raw money supply numbers suggest.

A rough (and conservative) estimate: mainstream quantity-theory-of-money reasoning would suggest that a 55% expansion in money supply, combined with rising velocity and falling output, could produce annual inflation well into the double digits -- plausibly 3050%+ in the first year or two, potentially accelerating into a hyperinflationary spiral if sustained. Historical parallels (Weimar Germany, Zimbabwe, Venezuela) all involved governments printing money at scales far smaller relative to GDP, and still produced catastrophic inflation.

So no, Elon doesn't understand economics. And yes, a "Universal High Income" would quickly lead to hyperinflation and currency collapsing, thrusting almost everyone into extreme poverty.

would be much wiser to use the Trump accounts to simply give company shares directly to individuals. Having government collect the funds as taxes then redistribute monies to the public is madness, and a particularly ironic suggestion given the level of corruption of public funding we've seen in MN and CA.
cowboycwr
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boognish_bear said:



Elon promises a "Universal High Income" for everyone. Let's suppose that means $10K per month for 100 million Americans.

Here's the math:

100 million people $10,000/month 12 months = $12 trillion per year.

To put that in context, total federal spending in fiscal year 2024 was roughly $6.75 trillion, and total federal revenue was about $4.9 trillion. So this single program would cost nearly twice the entire existing federal budget and about 2.5 all federal tax revenue. It would roughly triple total government spending overnight.

U.S. GDP is roughly $29 trillion. A $12 trillion UBI program would equal about 41% of total GDP -- being directed as cash transfers to a subset of the population. For comparison, all current federal transfer payments (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, veterans' benefits, etc.) combined run around $45 trillion.

The M2 money supply (cash, checking deposits, savings, money market funds) sits at roughly $2122 trillion. If the program were funded by money creation rather than taxes, injecting $12 trillion per year would expand M2 by roughly 55% in the first year alone. Even if a portion were funded through taxation (which just redistributes existing money), the sheer scale makes it nearly impossible to fund without massive monetary expansion.

The inflationary pressure would be enormous, for a few reinforcing reasons:
First, demand-side shock -- putting $10,000/month into 100 million hands would massively increase consumer spending, but the economy's productive capacity (factories, housing, workers, supply chains) can't scale anywhere near that fast. When far more dollars chase roughly the same quantity of goods, prices spike.

Second, labor supply contraction -- $120,000/year tax-free would exceed the median U.S. household income (~$80,000). Many workers would reduce hours or exit the workforce entirely, shrinking the supply side at the exact moment demand is surging. That's a double squeeze on prices.

Third, velocity effects -- lower-income recipients tend to spend transfer income quickly, so the velocity of money would increase, amplifying the inflationary effect beyond what the raw money supply numbers suggest.

A rough (and conservative) estimate: mainstream quantity-theory-of-money reasoning would suggest that a 55% expansion in money supply, combined with rising velocity and falling output, could produce annual inflation well into the double digits -- plausibly 3050%+ in the first year or two, potentially accelerating into a hyperinflationary spiral if sustained. Historical parallels (Weimar Germany, Zimbabwe, Venezuela) all involved governments printing money at scales far smaller relative to GDP, and still produced catastrophic inflation.

So no, Elon doesn't understand economics. And yes, a "Universal High Income" would quickly lead to hyperinflation and currency collapsing, thrusting almost everyone into extreme poverty.


10K seems high.

But I think even cutting it in half the basic premise is the same……
FLBear5630
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I agree with you here. All is not coming back, so the mix that does is important. We need the high tech, but also the nuts and bolts.
boognish_bear
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cowboycwr said:

boognish_bear said:



Elon promises a "Universal High Income" for everyone. Let's suppose that means $10K per month for 100 million Americans.

Here's the math:

100 million people $10,000/month 12 months = $12 trillion per year.

To put that in context, total federal spending in fiscal year 2024 was roughly $6.75 trillion, and total federal revenue was about $4.9 trillion. So this single program would cost nearly twice the entire existing federal budget and about 2.5 all federal tax revenue. It would roughly triple total government spending overnight.

U.S. GDP is roughly $29 trillion. A $12 trillion UBI program would equal about 41% of total GDP -- being directed as cash transfers to a subset of the population. For comparison, all current federal transfer payments (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, veterans' benefits, etc.) combined run around $45 trillion.

The M2 money supply (cash, checking deposits, savings, money market funds) sits at roughly $2122 trillion. If the program were funded by money creation rather than taxes, injecting $12 trillion per year would expand M2 by roughly 55% in the first year alone. Even if a portion were funded through taxation (which just redistributes existing money), the sheer scale makes it nearly impossible to fund without massive monetary expansion.

The inflationary pressure would be enormous, for a few reinforcing reasons:
First, demand-side shock -- putting $10,000/month into 100 million hands would massively increase consumer spending, but the economy's productive capacity (factories, housing, workers, supply chains) can't scale anywhere near that fast. When far more dollars chase roughly the same quantity of goods, prices spike.

Second, labor supply contraction -- $120,000/year tax-free would exceed the median U.S. household income (~$80,000). Many workers would reduce hours or exit the workforce entirely, shrinking the supply side at the exact moment demand is surging. That's a double squeeze on prices.

Third, velocity effects -- lower-income recipients tend to spend transfer income quickly, so the velocity of money would increase, amplifying the inflationary effect beyond what the raw money supply numbers suggest.

A rough (and conservative) estimate: mainstream quantity-theory-of-money reasoning would suggest that a 55% expansion in money supply, combined with rising velocity and falling output, could produce annual inflation well into the double digits -- plausibly 3050%+ in the first year or two, potentially accelerating into a hyperinflationary spiral if sustained. Historical parallels (Weimar Germany, Zimbabwe, Venezuela) all involved governments printing money at scales far smaller relative to GDP, and still produced catastrophic inflation.

So no, Elon doesn't understand economics. And yes, a "Universal High Income" would quickly lead to hyperinflation and currency collapsing, thrusting almost everyone into extreme poverty.


10K seems high.

But I think even cutting it in half the basic premise is the same……


Some people in the comments saying it could be only $2000 a month and that would be enough because goods and services will be so cheap. I just can't get there in my head.
whiterock
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boognish_bear said:

cowboycwr said:

boognish_bear said:



Elon promises a "Universal High Income" for everyone. Let's suppose that means $10K per month for 100 million Americans.

Here's the math:

100 million people $10,000/month 12 months = $12 trillion per year.

To put that in context, total federal spending in fiscal year 2024 was roughly $6.75 trillion, and total federal revenue was about $4.9 trillion. So this single program would cost nearly twice the entire existing federal budget and about 2.5 all federal tax revenue. It would roughly triple total government spending overnight.

U.S. GDP is roughly $29 trillion. A $12 trillion UBI program would equal about 41% of total GDP -- being directed as cash transfers to a subset of the population. For comparison, all current federal transfer payments (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, veterans' benefits, etc.) combined run around $45 trillion.

The M2 money supply (cash, checking deposits, savings, money market funds) sits at roughly $2122 trillion. If the program were funded by money creation rather than taxes, injecting $12 trillion per year would expand M2 by roughly 55% in the first year alone. Even if a portion were funded through taxation (which just redistributes existing money), the sheer scale makes it nearly impossible to fund without massive monetary expansion.

The inflationary pressure would be enormous, for a few reinforcing reasons:
First, demand-side shock -- putting $10,000/month into 100 million hands would massively increase consumer spending, but the economy's productive capacity (factories, housing, workers, supply chains) can't scale anywhere near that fast. When far more dollars chase roughly the same quantity of goods, prices spike.

Second, labor supply contraction -- $120,000/year tax-free would exceed the median U.S. household income (~$80,000). Many workers would reduce hours or exit the workforce entirely, shrinking the supply side at the exact moment demand is surging. That's a double squeeze on prices.

Third, velocity effects -- lower-income recipients tend to spend transfer income quickly, so the velocity of money would increase, amplifying the inflationary effect beyond what the raw money supply numbers suggest.

A rough (and conservative) estimate: mainstream quantity-theory-of-money reasoning would suggest that a 55% expansion in money supply, combined with rising velocity and falling output, could produce annual inflation well into the double digits -- plausibly 3050%+ in the first year or two, potentially accelerating into a hyperinflationary spiral if sustained. Historical parallels (Weimar Germany, Zimbabwe, Venezuela) all involved governments printing money at scales far smaller relative to GDP, and still produced catastrophic inflation.

So no, Elon doesn't understand economics. And yes, a "Universal High Income" would quickly lead to hyperinflation and currency collapsing, thrusting almost everyone into extreme poverty.


10K seems high.

But I think even cutting it in half the basic premise is the same……


Some people in the comments saying it could be only $2000 a month and that would be enough because goods and services will be so cheap. I just can't get there in my head.

again, the way to do it is to simply require publicly traded corporations to give shares to every baby born via "Trump Accounts." Would be a huge wealth builder.
Assassin
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Humanoid robots race runners at Beijing half marathon
“The more you open yourself up to the possibility that good things will happen the higher probability is that good things will in fact happen.”
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