War with Iran?

135,582 Views | 2180 Replies | Last: 4 mo ago by whiterock
ATL Bear
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FLBear5630 said:

ATL Bear said:

nein51 said:

FLBear5630 said:

Sam Lowry said:

Porteroso said:

GrowlTowel said:

FLBear5630 said:

GrowlTowel said:

FLBear5630 said:

GrowlTowel said:

I am not sure what all the fuss was about. The whole thing from beginning to end was a mostly peaceful bombing run.


We will wait until tomorrow for them to tell us what to think. Whatever it is, it will be pro-Donald.

The propaganda and attacks against those that disagree with this Administration is unreal.

Massey is now out of MAGA.


Have you not followed politics very long?


Yeah, my comments are for the MAGA crowd. You know the ones doing the gymnastics to make this fit the Trump is different narrative. You know, no foreign wars, cut annual spending, lower deficit, etc...



Things change. New information comes to light.

Perhaps Trump straight up lied to everyone about no new wars. Or, perhaps something bad was going to happen if he didn't act against Iran. The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle.


I remember in 2008, Obama made an issue about the prison at Gitmo and how he was going to close it. He was a senator at the time and probably didn't have all the information necessary for his bold plans.

He is elected and serves 8 years - Gitmo never closed.

Did he lie to everyone or was there a more compelling reason to keep it open?

Neither you nor I know all the information that went into the decision to bomb Iran.

My opinion is that it must have been something compelling to pull Trump into it.

Time will tell one way or the other. No need for pearl clutching at this point.
I think we do actually know. Iranian air defenses have been so weakened by Israel, and their ability to retaliate through proxy so degraded, that this was likely the best opportunity to fly the B-52s over Iranian airspace we will ever have. It's as simple as that.

Estimates were that they could rush forward to a nuclear weapon in 3 weeks, from where they were. In the future that timeframe could be a problem, even if 3 days ago, they were not trying to build a nuclear weapon. We decided to take the opportunity Israel gave us, rather than potentially let it come back to bite us.
We had an AI that the Israelis claim can monitor intentions. A predictive model, in other words. Has to be one of the stupidest things ever.
Don't laugh, Predictive Analytics is a thing. The more AI we see the more you will see predictive analytics used.

Predictive analytics has been a thing for a decent amount of time now and it's incredibly good at what it does. The best predictive analytics in the world resides in your credit card company of choice.

I worked on some modeling back in like 08-09 for our CC division that was amazing and brought HUGE profits and it was really just the tip of the iceberg.

Target was accurately predicting pregnancy BEFORE people
knew they were pregnant by item purchases, MC was able to predict divorce to a high degree of accuracy, the fraud department at ALL of them can predict fraud almost instantly.

Read SuperCrunchers by Ian Ayers from 2007 which talks about using predictive models to help stem the tide of poor hygiene at a hospital network that saved lives or trying to predict horse races, etc. Excellent read.
We wouldn't have Tesla's (and others) self driving cars without advanced AI predictive analytics.
They still having problems with left turns? joke was how does a Tesla make a left, 3 rights...
It will be interesting to see the impact of AGI on future versions of self driving.
FLBear5630
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ATL Bear said:

FLBear5630 said:

ATL Bear said:

nein51 said:

FLBear5630 said:

Sam Lowry said:

Porteroso said:

GrowlTowel said:

FLBear5630 said:

GrowlTowel said:

FLBear5630 said:

GrowlTowel said:

I am not sure what all the fuss was about. The whole thing from beginning to end was a mostly peaceful bombing run.


We will wait until tomorrow for them to tell us what to think. Whatever it is, it will be pro-Donald.

The propaganda and attacks against those that disagree with this Administration is unreal.

Massey is now out of MAGA.


Have you not followed politics very long?


Yeah, my comments are for the MAGA crowd. You know the ones doing the gymnastics to make this fit the Trump is different narrative. You know, no foreign wars, cut annual spending, lower deficit, etc...



Things change. New information comes to light.

Perhaps Trump straight up lied to everyone about no new wars. Or, perhaps something bad was going to happen if he didn't act against Iran. The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle.


I remember in 2008, Obama made an issue about the prison at Gitmo and how he was going to close it. He was a senator at the time and probably didn't have all the information necessary for his bold plans.

He is elected and serves 8 years - Gitmo never closed.

Did he lie to everyone or was there a more compelling reason to keep it open?

Neither you nor I know all the information that went into the decision to bomb Iran.

My opinion is that it must have been something compelling to pull Trump into it.

Time will tell one way or the other. No need for pearl clutching at this point.
I think we do actually know. Iranian air defenses have been so weakened by Israel, and their ability to retaliate through proxy so degraded, that this was likely the best opportunity to fly the B-52s over Iranian airspace we will ever have. It's as simple as that.

Estimates were that they could rush forward to a nuclear weapon in 3 weeks, from where they were. In the future that timeframe could be a problem, even if 3 days ago, they were not trying to build a nuclear weapon. We decided to take the opportunity Israel gave us, rather than potentially let it come back to bite us.
We had an AI that the Israelis claim can monitor intentions. A predictive model, in other words. Has to be one of the stupidest things ever.
Don't laugh, Predictive Analytics is a thing. The more AI we see the more you will see predictive analytics used.

Predictive analytics has been a thing for a decent amount of time now and it's incredibly good at what it does. The best predictive analytics in the world resides in your credit card company of choice.

I worked on some modeling back in like 08-09 for our CC division that was amazing and brought HUGE profits and it was really just the tip of the iceberg.

Target was accurately predicting pregnancy BEFORE people
knew they were pregnant by item purchases, MC was able to predict divorce to a high degree of accuracy, the fraud department at ALL of them can predict fraud almost instantly.

Read SuperCrunchers by Ian Ayers from 2007 which talks about using predictive models to help stem the tide of poor hygiene at a hospital network that saved lives or trying to predict horse races, etc. Excellent read.
We wouldn't have Tesla's (and others) self driving cars without advanced AI predictive analytics.
They still having problems with left turns? joke was how does a Tesla make a left, 3 rights...
It will be interesting to see the impact of AGI on future versions of self driving.
I think it will take off. I also believe it will have bad effects on those that use them. I make it a point not to use it. One of the reasons I come on here is to keep up cognitive skills. Message Boards are unpredictable and it makes you respond, sometime critically, sometimes witty, and sometimes question your believes. AI takes all that out of the equation.

Not that anyone will listen, they will gladly throw away skills for convenience. Use it or lose it.



How GPS Weakens Memory--and What We Can Do about It | Scientific American
How GPS Weakens Memory--and What We Can Do about It | Scientific American

AI Weakens Critical Thinking. This Is How to Rebuild It | Psychology Today
Sam Lowry
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FLBear5630 said:

ATL Bear said:

FLBear5630 said:

ATL Bear said:

nein51 said:

FLBear5630 said:

Sam Lowry said:

Porteroso said:

GrowlTowel said:

FLBear5630 said:

GrowlTowel said:

FLBear5630 said:

GrowlTowel said:

I am not sure what all the fuss was about. The whole thing from beginning to end was a mostly peaceful bombing run.


We will wait until tomorrow for them to tell us what to think. Whatever it is, it will be pro-Donald.

The propaganda and attacks against those that disagree with this Administration is unreal.

Massey is now out of MAGA.


Have you not followed politics very long?


Yeah, my comments are for the MAGA crowd. You know the ones doing the gymnastics to make this fit the Trump is different narrative. You know, no foreign wars, cut annual spending, lower deficit, etc...



Things change. New information comes to light.

Perhaps Trump straight up lied to everyone about no new wars. Or, perhaps something bad was going to happen if he didn't act against Iran. The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle.


I remember in 2008, Obama made an issue about the prison at Gitmo and how he was going to close it. He was a senator at the time and probably didn't have all the information necessary for his bold plans.

He is elected and serves 8 years - Gitmo never closed.

Did he lie to everyone or was there a more compelling reason to keep it open?

Neither you nor I know all the information that went into the decision to bomb Iran.

My opinion is that it must have been something compelling to pull Trump into it.

Time will tell one way or the other. No need for pearl clutching at this point.
I think we do actually know. Iranian air defenses have been so weakened by Israel, and their ability to retaliate through proxy so degraded, that this was likely the best opportunity to fly the B-52s over Iranian airspace we will ever have. It's as simple as that.

Estimates were that they could rush forward to a nuclear weapon in 3 weeks, from where they were. In the future that timeframe could be a problem, even if 3 days ago, they were not trying to build a nuclear weapon. We decided to take the opportunity Israel gave us, rather than potentially let it come back to bite us.
We had an AI that the Israelis claim can monitor intentions. A predictive model, in other words. Has to be one of the stupidest things ever.
Don't laugh, Predictive Analytics is a thing. The more AI we see the more you will see predictive analytics used.

Predictive analytics has been a thing for a decent amount of time now and it's incredibly good at what it does. The best predictive analytics in the world resides in your credit card company of choice.

I worked on some modeling back in like 08-09 for our CC division that was amazing and brought HUGE profits and it was really just the tip of the iceberg.

Target was accurately predicting pregnancy BEFORE people
knew they were pregnant by item purchases, MC was able to predict divorce to a high degree of accuracy, the fraud department at ALL of them can predict fraud almost instantly.

Read SuperCrunchers by Ian Ayers from 2007 which talks about using predictive models to help stem the tide of poor hygiene at a hospital network that saved lives or trying to predict horse races, etc. Excellent read.
We wouldn't have Tesla's (and others) self driving cars without advanced AI predictive analytics.
They still having problems with left turns? joke was how does a Tesla make a left, 3 rights...
It will be interesting to see the impact of AGI on future versions of self driving.
How GPS Weakens Memory--and What We Can Do about It | Scientific American
How GPS Weakens Memory--and What We Can Do about It | Scientific American
I see what you did there.
nein51
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FLBear5630 said:

nein51 said:

FLBear5630 said:

Sam Lowry said:

Porteroso said:

GrowlTowel said:

FLBear5630 said:

GrowlTowel said:

FLBear5630 said:

GrowlTowel said:

I am not sure what all the fuss was about. The whole thing from beginning to end was a mostly peaceful bombing run.


We will wait until tomorrow for them to tell us what to think. Whatever it is, it will be pro-Donald.

The propaganda and attacks against those that disagree with this Administration is unreal.

Massey is now out of MAGA.


Have you not followed politics very long?


Yeah, my comments are for the MAGA crowd. You know the ones doing the gymnastics to make this fit the Trump is different narrative. You know, no foreign wars, cut annual spending, lower deficit, etc...



Things change. New information comes to light.

Perhaps Trump straight up lied to everyone about no new wars. Or, perhaps something bad was going to happen if he didn't act against Iran. The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle.


I remember in 2008, Obama made an issue about the prison at Gitmo and how he was going to close it. He was a senator at the time and probably didn't have all the information necessary for his bold plans.

He is elected and serves 8 years - Gitmo never closed.

Did he lie to everyone or was there a more compelling reason to keep it open?

Neither you nor I know all the information that went into the decision to bomb Iran.

My opinion is that it must have been something compelling to pull Trump into it.

Time will tell one way or the other. No need for pearl clutching at this point.
I think we do actually know. Iranian air defenses have been so weakened by Israel, and their ability to retaliate through proxy so degraded, that this was likely the best opportunity to fly the B-52s over Iranian airspace we will ever have. It's as simple as that.

Estimates were that they could rush forward to a nuclear weapon in 3 weeks, from where they were. In the future that timeframe could be a problem, even if 3 days ago, they were not trying to build a nuclear weapon. We decided to take the opportunity Israel gave us, rather than potentially let it come back to bite us.
We had an AI that the Israelis claim can monitor intentions. A predictive model, in other words. Has to be one of the stupidest things ever.
Don't laugh, Predictive Analytics is a thing. The more AI we see the more you will see predictive analytics used.

Predictive analytics has been a thing for a decent amount of time now and it's incredibly good at what it does. The best predictive analytics in the world resides in your credit card company of choice.

I worked on some modeling back in like 08-09 for our CC division that was amazing and brought HUGE profits and it was really just the tip of the iceberg.

Target was accurately predicting pregnancy BEFORE people
knew they were pregnant by item purchases, MC was able to predict divorce to a high degree of accuracy, the fraud department at ALL of them can predict fraud almost instantly.

Read SuperCrunchers by Ian Ayers from 2007 which talks about using predictive models to help stem the tide of poor hygiene at a hospital network that saved lives or trying to predict horse races, etc. Excellent read.
We are using them in traffic analysis for safety. They are good for some things others, not so much yet. I have yet to see one do a credible job on sporting events or races.

Yes. It turns out that chapter in the book is about how the modeling didn't work on horse racing.

Ironically, it does give us plenty of other models in sports that are correct that still often get ignored.
1) when to bunt (essentially never)
2) when to take a 3 point shot
3) best predictor of W/L is turnover margin but that's near impossible to predict.
nein51
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ATL Bear said:

nein51 said:

FLBear5630 said:

Sam Lowry said:

Porteroso said:

GrowlTowel said:

FLBear5630 said:

GrowlTowel said:

FLBear5630 said:

GrowlTowel said:

I am not sure what all the fuss was about. The whole thing from beginning to end was a mostly peaceful bombing run.


We will wait until tomorrow for them to tell us what to think. Whatever it is, it will be pro-Donald.

The propaganda and attacks against those that disagree with this Administration is unreal.

Massey is now out of MAGA.


Have you not followed politics very long?


Yeah, my comments are for the MAGA crowd. You know the ones doing the gymnastics to make this fit the Trump is different narrative. You know, no foreign wars, cut annual spending, lower deficit, etc...



Things change. New information comes to light.

Perhaps Trump straight up lied to everyone about no new wars. Or, perhaps something bad was going to happen if he didn't act against Iran. The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle.


I remember in 2008, Obama made an issue about the prison at Gitmo and how he was going to close it. He was a senator at the time and probably didn't have all the information necessary for his bold plans.

He is elected and serves 8 years - Gitmo never closed.

Did he lie to everyone or was there a more compelling reason to keep it open?

Neither you nor I know all the information that went into the decision to bomb Iran.

My opinion is that it must have been something compelling to pull Trump into it.

Time will tell one way or the other. No need for pearl clutching at this point.
I think we do actually know. Iranian air defenses have been so weakened by Israel, and their ability to retaliate through proxy so degraded, that this was likely the best opportunity to fly the B-52s over Iranian airspace we will ever have. It's as simple as that.

Estimates were that they could rush forward to a nuclear weapon in 3 weeks, from where they were. In the future that timeframe could be a problem, even if 3 days ago, they were not trying to build a nuclear weapon. We decided to take the opportunity Israel gave us, rather than potentially let it come back to bite us.
We had an AI that the Israelis claim can monitor intentions. A predictive model, in other words. Has to be one of the stupidest things ever.
Don't laugh, Predictive Analytics is a thing. The more AI we see the more you will see predictive analytics used.

Predictive analytics has been a thing for a decent amount of time now and it's incredibly good at what it does. The best predictive analytics in the world resides in your credit card company of choice.

I worked on some modeling back in like 08-09 for our CC division that was amazing and brought HUGE profits and it was really just the tip of the iceberg.

Target was accurately predicting pregnancy BEFORE people
knew they were pregnant by item purchases, MC was able to predict divorce to a high degree of accuracy, the fraud department at ALL of them can predict fraud almost instantly.

Read SuperCrunchers by Ian Ayers from 2007 which talks about using predictive models to help stem the tide of poor hygiene at a hospital network that saved lives or trying to predict horse races, etc. Excellent read.
We wouldn't have Tesla's (and others) self driving cars without advanced AI predictive analytics.

There are a million uses for predictive analytics. The problem is that people expect 100% accuracy without realizing that even 51% is a step the right direction.

So every time the model is wrong they leap on the "analytics doesn't work" train. The reality is that the data fed into the system is often the problem and not the model. We see that with climate data regularly.
LIB,MR BEARS
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Porteroso said:

LIB,MR BEARS said:


Please don't post fake news. I'm sure you knew what you were posting was bs, but not everyone is so intelligent.

I think that's an actual photo. If you look at the bottom of the picture, that's not carpet print but money bands. They're on top of a pallet of money

/s
LIB,MR BEARS
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FLBear5630 said:

Sam Lowry said:

Porteroso said:

GrowlTowel said:

FLBear5630 said:

GrowlTowel said:

FLBear5630 said:

GrowlTowel said:

I am not sure what all the fuss was about. The whole thing from beginning to end was a mostly peaceful bombing run.


We will wait until tomorrow for them to tell us what to think. Whatever it is, it will be pro-Donald.

The propaganda and attacks against those that disagree with this Administration is unreal.

Massey is now out of MAGA.


Have you not followed politics very long?


Yeah, my comments are for the MAGA crowd. You know the ones doing the gymnastics to make this fit the Trump is different narrative. You know, no foreign wars, cut annual spending, lower deficit, etc...



Things change. New information comes to light.

Perhaps Trump straight up lied to everyone about no new wars. Or, perhaps something bad was going to happen if he didn't act against Iran. The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle.


I remember in 2008, Obama made an issue about the prison at Gitmo and how he was going to close it. He was a senator at the time and probably didn't have all the information necessary for his bold plans.

He is elected and serves 8 years - Gitmo never closed.

Did he lie to everyone or was there a more compelling reason to keep it open?

Neither you nor I know all the information that went into the decision to bomb Iran.

My opinion is that it must have been something compelling to pull Trump into it.

Time will tell one way or the other. No need for pearl clutching at this point.
I think we do actually know. Iranian air defenses have been so weakened by Israel, and their ability to retaliate through proxy so degraded, that this was likely the best opportunity to fly the B-52s over Iranian airspace we will ever have. It's as simple as that.

Estimates were that they could rush forward to a nuclear weapon in 3 weeks, from where they were. In the future that timeframe could be a problem, even if 3 days ago, they were not trying to build a nuclear weapon. We decided to take the opportunity Israel gave us, rather than potentially let it come back to bite us.
We had an AI that the Israelis claim can monitor intentions. A predictive model, in other words. Has to be one of the stupidest things ever.
Don't laugh, Predictive Analytics is a thing. The more AI we see the more you will see predictive analytics used.
who knew that the magic 8 ball was cutting edge technology when we were kids
LIB,MR BEARS
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ATL Bear said:

LIB,MR BEARS said:

ATL Bear said:

I'd say the missile strikes were Iranians saving face. It gives Trump an opening to be magnanimous and say the U.S. isn't going to retaliate in order to give a chance for deescalation/peace. He can put a deadline on it. Carefully orchestrated gunboat diplomacy.

I noticed that it's being reported that Qutar shot down the missiles.


No harm
No foul

Back in the peace making business will be the talking points if this is the end of US involvement.

The Ones being called "woke right" will need to find a way to save face. Probably something like Trump spoke to congressional leaders within the required 48 hours where our concerns were made known.

Heaven forbid a democrat ever step out of line publicly.

Rs not all shouting a company line at least tells me there is some debate going on and not a strong arm party leader like Obama was for so long.

I am very much hoping it marks an opportunity to end the escalated hostilities, and for more reasons than world peace. As I posted in the bear cave, I'm scheduled to take the family to Dubai and then Maldives with a stop in Qatar on the way home. We depart Sunday. Great timing…lol
Sleep in clothes and with your shoes on.
Mothra
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Sam?
BearFan33
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ATL Bear said:

LIB,MR BEARS said:

ATL Bear said:

I'd say the missile strikes were Iranians saving face. It gives Trump an opening to be magnanimous and say the U.S. isn't going to retaliate in order to give a chance for deescalation/peace. He can put a deadline on it. Carefully orchestrated gunboat diplomacy.

I noticed that it's being reported that Qutar shot down the missiles.


No harm
No foul

Back in the peace making business will be the talking points if this is the end of US involvement.

The Ones being called "woke right" will need to find a way to save face. Probably something like Trump spoke to congressional leaders within the required 48 hours where our concerns were made known.

Heaven forbid a democrat ever step out of line publicly.

Rs not all shouting a company line at least tells me there is some debate going on and not a strong arm party leader like Obama was for so long.

I am very much hoping it marks an opportunity to end the escalated hostilities, and for more reasons than world peace. As I posted in the bear cave, I'm scheduled to take the family to Dubai and then Maldives with a stop in Qatar on the way home. We depart Sunday. Great timing…lol
Safe travels. Maldives are fantastic. Do some scuba or at least snorkeling while there if you can.
LIB,MR BEARS
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jbbear
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The_barBEARian said:

OsoCoreyell said:

The_barBEARian said:

OsoCoreyell said:

If the choice is between war with Iran and a nuclear empowered Iran, you take war.

Did you say the same about North Korea?

Ultimately we didnt go to war with North Korea. They've had nuclear weapons capable of hitting the US for about a decade now and the world keeps on spinning.

Iran is less of a threat to the US homeland than North Korea is/was.
That was a different equation because of China. That dynamic doesn't exist for Iran.

How would war with Iran improve our national debt crisis? Or lower the price of energy which is keeping inflation in check?

Everytime the US has attempted regime change in the Middle East it has been catastrophically costly and resulted in abject failure even against adversaries much weaker than Iran.

Forget weapons. Iran has already agreed to not developing nuclear weapons.

Israel wants America to go to war with Iran over Iran keeping its nuclear energy program.

Man are you stupid if you believe that.
boognish_bear
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ATL Bear said:

I'd say the missile strikes were Iranians saving face. It gives Trump an opening to be magnanimous and say the U.S. isn't going to retaliate in order to give a chance for deescalation/peace. He can put a deadline on it. Carefully orchestrated gunboat diplomacy.


boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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BearFan33
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boognish_bear said:


He loves the attention. I have mixed feelings on Massie. I certainly like some of his takes, but He hasn't really accomplished much but complain about both sides. If he has done something positive let me know. He needs to be put in charge of something to make him put up or shut up.
boognish_bear
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Doc Holliday
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I think rhetoric like this is coming from DC bureaucracy who desperately wants a prolonged war.

Doc Holliday
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The_barBEARian
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BearFan33 said:

boognish_bear said:


He loves the attention. I have mixed feelings on Massie. I certainly like some of his takes, but He hasn't really accomplished much but complain about both sides. If he has done something positive let me know. He needs to be put in charge of something to make him put up or shut up.


He is one of, if not, the most popular member of Congress so whatever he's doing.... its working.
boognish_bear
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ron.reagan
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boognish_bear said:


There has to be at least a 10% chance he didn't talk to either party yet
TinFoilHatPreacherBear
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ron.reagan said:

boognish_bear said:


There has to be at least a 10% chance he didn't talk to either party yet

Perhaps a 50% chance Iran reneges, but I'd put it closer to 0% that no one from his admin talked to either side.

Porteroso
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Doc Holliday said:


It's pretty good.
Mothra
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The_barBEARian said:

BearFan33 said:

boognish_bear said:


He loves the attention. I have mixed feelings on Massie. I certainly like some of his takes, but He hasn't really accomplished much but complain about both sides. If he has done something positive let me know. He needs to be put in charge of something to make him put up or shut up.


He is one of, if not, the most popular member of Congress so whatever he's doing.... its working.
According to what poll? I suspect the vast majority of Americans have never heard of the guy. You sure this wasn't a poll conducted of the people inside your head?

According to this very reputable website, which apparently keeps track of such popularity contests, he's rated the 142nd most popular politician, right after Roy Blunt and right before John Boehner.

Impressive. Most impressive.

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Thomas_Massie
BearFan33
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The_barBEARian said:

BearFan33 said:

boognish_bear said:


He loves the attention. I have mixed feelings on Massie. I certainly like some of his takes, but He hasn't really accomplished much but complain about both sides. If he has done something positive let me know. He needs to be put in charge of something to make him put up or shut up.


He is one of, if not, the most popular member of Congress so whatever he's doing.... its working.

So is AOC
Porteroso
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ron.reagan said:

boognish_bear said:


There has to be at least a 10% chance he didn't talk to either party yet
Maybe 50%. Probably read a tweet.

Joking aside, if it's true, it's incredible news. I am such a big fan of peace. The regime change thing could have just been one of the millions of his stupid tweets. Hard to know what to take seriously with him, but if, in the end, we set back Iran's nuclear weapons program by months or years, at the cost of 0 lives, it's a major win for Trump, sure, but mostly for our military. Which I will always adore. Buncha badda$$es. One of my childhood friends is a F-35 pilot, he's such a good guy. And smart enough to have done anything in life.
historian
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Looks like there won't be any long drawn out war. Instead there is a ceasefire. The Leftists with TDS must be very disappointed!
“Incline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
Mothra
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BearFan33 said:

The_barBEARian said:

BearFan33 said:

boognish_bear said:


He loves the attention. I have mixed feelings on Massie. I certainly like some of his takes, but He hasn't really accomplished much but complain about both sides. If he has done something positive let me know. He needs to be put in charge of something to make him put up or shut up.


He is one of, if not, the most popular member of Congress so whatever he's doing.... its working.

So is AOC
The difference is, AOC actually IS quite popular. Scary, I know.
FLBear5630
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nein51 said:

FLBear5630 said:

nein51 said:

FLBear5630 said:

Sam Lowry said:

Porteroso said:

GrowlTowel said:

FLBear5630 said:

GrowlTowel said:

FLBear5630 said:

GrowlTowel said:

I am not sure what all the fuss was about. The whole thing from beginning to end was a mostly peaceful bombing run.


We will wait until tomorrow for them to tell us what to think. Whatever it is, it will be pro-Donald.

The propaganda and attacks against those that disagree with this Administration is unreal.

Massey is now out of MAGA.


Have you not followed politics very long?


Yeah, my comments are for the MAGA crowd. You know the ones doing the gymnastics to make this fit the Trump is different narrative. You know, no foreign wars, cut annual spending, lower deficit, etc...



Things change. New information comes to light.

Perhaps Trump straight up lied to everyone about no new wars. Or, perhaps something bad was going to happen if he didn't act against Iran. The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle.


I remember in 2008, Obama made an issue about the prison at Gitmo and how he was going to close it. He was a senator at the time and probably didn't have all the information necessary for his bold plans.

He is elected and serves 8 years - Gitmo never closed.

Did he lie to everyone or was there a more compelling reason to keep it open?

Neither you nor I know all the information that went into the decision to bomb Iran.

My opinion is that it must have been something compelling to pull Trump into it.

Time will tell one way or the other. No need for pearl clutching at this point.
I think we do actually know. Iranian air defenses have been so weakened by Israel, and their ability to retaliate through proxy so degraded, that this was likely the best opportunity to fly the B-52s over Iranian airspace we will ever have. It's as simple as that.

Estimates were that they could rush forward to a nuclear weapon in 3 weeks, from where they were. In the future that timeframe could be a problem, even if 3 days ago, they were not trying to build a nuclear weapon. We decided to take the opportunity Israel gave us, rather than potentially let it come back to bite us.
We had an AI that the Israelis claim can monitor intentions. A predictive model, in other words. Has to be one of the stupidest things ever.
Don't laugh, Predictive Analytics is a thing. The more AI we see the more you will see predictive analytics used.

Predictive analytics has been a thing for a decent amount of time now and it's incredibly good at what it does. The best predictive analytics in the world resides in your credit card company of choice.

I worked on some modeling back in like 08-09 for our CC division that was amazing and brought HUGE profits and it was really just the tip of the iceberg.

Target was accurately predicting pregnancy BEFORE people
knew they were pregnant by item purchases, MC was able to predict divorce to a high degree of accuracy, the fraud department at ALL of them can predict fraud almost instantly.

Read SuperCrunchers by Ian Ayers from 2007 which talks about using predictive models to help stem the tide of poor hygiene at a hospital network that saved lives or trying to predict horse races, etc. Excellent read.
We are using them in traffic analysis for safety. They are good for some things others, not so much yet. I have yet to see one do a credible job on sporting events or races.

Yes. It turns out that chapter in the book is about how the modeling didn't work on horse racing.

Ironically, it does give us plenty of other models in sports that are correct that still often get ignored.
1) when to bunt (essentially never)
2) when to take a 3 point shot
3) best predictor of W/L is turnover margin but that's near impossible to predict.
If you come up with one that works on DFS, we will talk... : )
historian
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Very scary. She's a moron.
“Incline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
FLBear5630
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boognish_bear said:


I hope he pulls it off.
Mothra
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boognish_bear said:

ATL Bear said:

I'd say the missile strikes were Iranians saving face. It gives Trump an opening to be magnanimous and say the U.S. isn't going to retaliate in order to give a chance for deescalation/peace. He can put a deadline on it. Carefully orchestrated gunboat diplomacy.



Wait a second - are you telling me that we aren't actually at war and the sky isn't actually falling???!!! Incredible. The Anti-Semites were so sure that they almost had me convinced.

Almost.

It will be interesting to watch the mental contortions of the MTGs and Tucker Carlson's of the world. Wonder how these Chicken Little's will find a way to spin their dire (and once again, incorrect) predictions?
Porteroso
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historian said:

Looks like there won't be any long drawn out war. Instead there is a ceasefire. The Leftists with TDS must be very disappointed!
With Trump, they are never disappointed for long! Actually I bet they're happy and relieved. Nobody wants any President creating or prolonging war. I mean, almost nobody.
FLBear5630
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Mothra said:

boognish_bear said:

ATL Bear said:

I'd say the missile strikes were Iranians saving face. It gives Trump an opening to be magnanimous and say the U.S. isn't going to retaliate in order to give a chance for deescalation/peace. He can put a deadline on it. Carefully orchestrated gunboat diplomacy.



Wait a second - are you telling me that we aren't actually at war and the sky isn't actually falling???!!! Incredible. The Anti-Semites were so sure that they almost had me convinced.

Almost.

It will be interesting to watch the mental contortions of the MTGs and Tucker Carlson's of the world. Wonder how these Chicken Little's will find a way to spin their dire (and once again, incorrect) predictions?
He pulls it off he deserves credit. No doubt. If this follows through, he spun the wheel and won. Tip of the cap, he read it right and had the balls to take action.
 
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