War with Iran?

158,980 Views | 2262 Replies | Last: 2 hrs ago by whiterock
whiterock
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The_barBEARian said:

whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:



Yeah, he did. I always thought he was pissed his Dad didn't get to do it in 91. Cheney's interest for Haliburton didn't dissuade him either.

Never figured how Rumsfeld fit in, you have a better fix on the whole situation I am sure (seriously). I know Rummy would love the Roundup EO... (shouldn't go there, on me.)

he had no choice.

I saw the intel on his desk. He had a WMD-capable dictator in active liaison with AQ while we were still digging bodies out of the rubble in New York City.

Put all the worst-case scenarios of invasion on the table. None of them, individually or collectively, outweighed the risk of a WMD attack on an American city from a terror group who had just engaged in a spectacularly successful operation on our soil. The choice was to run the risk of an attack with 1000x or more casualties of 9/11, or run the risk of what ended up happening in Iraq.

I'm no Bushie. W had no choice.




Who provided that false intel that Sadaam had or was working toward nuclear weapons?


There was a lot of intelligence, from a variety of sources, to include satellite imagery, that he had an active program. And when I say "there was a lot" I mean...I actually read most of them. And it had to be read in context of an active WMD program which had not just produced WMDs, but actively used them against Kurds in northern Iraq.

In intel analysis, macro trends are hugely important. Where is the mainstream of the flow of reporting? How many and how broad are the outliers? ALL of the intel on Iraqi WMD, from US sources and all liaison sources, were very consistent that Saddam already had chemical and biological weapons (as evidenced by use) and was working on nuclear weapons. The only thing in question was how close he was to nuclear capability. The number of sources saying Saddam did NOT have an active nuclear program was basically one - an Iraqi defector. And that source was a massive outlier. So how do youjust toss out a whole building full of intel that said he had something going on just one report? (you can't. no matter what your gut tells you. You have to point out that both exist and let the policy maker decide. And in this case, the policy maker looked at a mountain of reports that said yes and weighed it all against a single manila folder of reports which said the opposite.) Thanks to our invasion of Iraq and subsequent deposition of Saddam, we no longer have to worry about whether or not we were at risk of a State Sponsor of Terror dangling nuclear weapons in front of a terror group that had just killed over 3k Americans on American soil..

Bush's problem was one of expectations. He allowed public perception to expect to see large warehouses of boxes with big "nuclear weapons inside" labels on them. That was never the case. Nor did it need to be to justify invading Iraq. How could we allow a state which had used domestically produced chemical and biological weapons on its own people to engage in liaison with a terrorist group which had just conducted a mass terror event on US soil? Answer: it was an unacceptable risk.

Bush made the right call to remove Saddam.
The eff-up happened in the nation-building thereafter.
Sam Lowry
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The_barBEARian said:

whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:



Yeah, he did. I always thought he was pissed his Dad didn't get to do it in 91. Cheney's interest for Haliburton didn't dissuade him either.

Never figured how Rumsfeld fit in, you have a better fix on the whole situation I am sure (seriously). I know Rummy would love the Roundup EO... (shouldn't go there, on me.)

he had no choice.

I saw the intel on his desk. He had a WMD-capable dictator in active liaison with AQ while we were still digging bodies out of the rubble in New York City.

Put all the worst-case scenarios of invasion on the table. None of them, individually or collectively, outweighed the risk of a WMD attack on an American city from a terror group who had just engaged in a spectacularly successful operation on our soil. The choice was to run the risk of an attack with 1000x or more casualties of 9/11, or run the risk of what ended up happening in Iraq.

I'm no Bushie. W had no choice.




Who provided that false intel that Sadaam had or was working toward nuclear weapons?


Whiterock did, apparently.
The_barBEARian
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Sam Lowry said:

The_barBEARian said:

whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:



Yeah, he did. I always thought he was pissed his Dad didn't get to do it in 91. Cheney's interest for Haliburton didn't dissuade him either.

Never figured how Rumsfeld fit in, you have a better fix on the whole situation I am sure (seriously). I know Rummy would love the Roundup EO... (shouldn't go there, on me.)

he had no choice.

I saw the intel on his desk. He had a WMD-capable dictator in active liaison with AQ while we were still digging bodies out of the rubble in New York City.

Put all the worst-case scenarios of invasion on the table. None of them, individually or collectively, outweighed the risk of a WMD attack on an American city from a terror group who had just engaged in a spectacularly successful operation on our soil. The choice was to run the risk of an attack with 1000x or more casualties of 9/11, or run the risk of what ended up happening in Iraq.

I'm no Bushie. W had no choice.




Who provided that false intel that Sadaam had or was working toward nuclear weapons?


Whiterock did, apparently.


Whiterock now wants us to go to war with Iran under the same false pretenses... he's like a lame villian from some Tom Clancey story
Porteroso
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muddybrazos said:



That is crazy. If it were a reasonable take, you'd want every little village dotting the globe to have nukes, because that means nobody else would ever use them!
boognish_bear
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KaiBear
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whiterock said:

The_barBEARian said:

whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:



Yeah, he did. I always thought he was pissed his Dad didn't get to do it in 91. Cheney's interest for Haliburton didn't dissuade him either.

Never figured how Rumsfeld fit in, you have a better fix on the whole situation I am sure (seriously). I know Rummy would love the Roundup EO... (shouldn't go there, on me.)

he had no choice.

I saw the intel on his desk. He had a WMD-capable dictator in active liaison with AQ while we were still digging bodies out of the rubble in New York City.

Put all the worst-case scenarios of invasion on the table. None of them, individually or collectively, outweighed the risk of a WMD attack on an American city from a terror group who had just engaged in a spectacularly successful operation on our soil. The choice was to run the risk of an attack with 1000x or more casualties of 9/11, or run the risk of what ended up happening in Iraq.

I'm no Bushie. W had no choice.




Who provided that false intel that Sadaam had or was working toward nuclear weapons?


There was a lot of intelligence, from a variety of sources, to include satellite imagery, that he had an active program. And when I say "there was a lot" I mean...I actually read most of them. And it had to be read in context of an active WMD program which had not just produced WMDs, but actively used them against Kurds in northern Iraq.

In intel analysis, macro trends are hugely important. Where is the mainstream of the flow of reporting? How many and how broad are the outliers? ALL of the intel on Iraqi WMD, from US sources and all liaison sources, were very consistent that Saddam already had chemical and biological weapons (as evidenced by use) and was working on nuclear weapons. The only thing in question was how close he was to nuclear capability. The number of sources saying Saddam did NOT have an active nuclear program was basically one - an Iraqi defector. And that source was a massive outlier. So how do youjust toss out a whole building full of intel that said he had something going on just one report? (you can't. no matter what your gut tells you. You have to point out that both exist and let the policy maker decide. And in this case, the policy maker looked at a mountain of reports that said yes and weighed it all against a single manila folder of reports which said the opposite.)

Bush made the right call to remove Saddam.
The eff-up happened in the nation-building thereafter.



Totally correct on both counts.

Unfortunately most Americans have zero comprehension of anything related to the Iraq war.
boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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FLBear5630
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boognish_bear said:




Glad Trump isn't a neocon playing world's policeman.
muddybrazos
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KaiBear
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Would be very surprised if Trump leads the US into a general war with Iran.

A. The American people would never support it.
B. Iran does not threaten the security of the United States.
C. Such a war would severely damage his rebuilding of the US economy via foreign investments.
muddybrazos
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KaiBear said:

Would be very surprised if Trump leads the US into a general war with Iran.

A. The American people would never support it.
B. Iran does not threaten the security of the United States.
C. Such a war would severely damage his rebuilding of the US economy via foreign investments.

Agreed and I think some of his top generals are telling him as much. I hope Rubio feels the same bc he will probably make the final call. Vance is trying to straddle the line bc he knows his potential future voters do not want a war.
KaiBear
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muddybrazos said:

KaiBear said:

Would be very surprised if Trump leads the US into a general war with Iran.

A. The American people would never support it.
B. Iran does not threaten the security of the United States.
C. Such a war would severely damage his rebuilding of the US economy via foreign investments.

Agreed and I think some of his top generals are telling him as much. I hope Rubio feels the same bc he will probably make the final call. Vance is trying to straddle the line bc he knows his potential future voters do not want a war.

Does not matter what line Vance atempts to straddle. He will not be the next POTUS.

But Rubio might.

He better keep Trump in line and the US out of war.
Porteroso
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boognish_bear said:



One of those tweets where the guy hopes the sheeple of America will read a few words and assume they accurately describe the video.

What he said, is that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons that threaten Europe and America. And then, that he prefers to solve this through diplomacy, but that we are not afraid to stop their nuclear weapons program however we have to.

Being anti war is popular right now, but good on Democrats to applaud these words. We quibble over many things, but one thing that should unite us is not letting terrorists get nukes.
Mitch Blood Green
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Porteroso said:

boognish_bear said:



One of those tweets where the guy hopes the sheeple of America will read a few words and assume they accurately describe the video.

What he said, is that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons that threaten Europe and America. And then, that he prefers to solve this through diplomacy, but that we are not afraid to stop their nuclear weapons program however we have to.

Being anti war is popular right now, but good on Democrats to applaud these words. We quibble over many things, but one thing that should unite us is not letting terrorists get nukes.

Maybe we can do an agreement with Iran, where they allow inspectors from multiple countries to ensure they are not trying to create nukes for war purposes.
The_barBEARian
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Porteroso said:

boognish_bear said:



One of those tweets where the guy hopes the sheeple of America will read a few words and assume they accurately describe the video.

What he said, is that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons that threaten Europe and America. And then, that he prefers to solve this through diplomacy, but that we are not afraid to stop their nuclear weapons program however we have to.

Being anti war is popular right now, but good on Democrats to applaud these words. We quibble over many things, but one thing that should unite us is not letting terrorists get nukes.


The Israelis already have them and Trump admin is facilitating the Saudis having them in the future.
whiterock
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KaiBear said:

whiterock said:

The_barBEARian said:

whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:



Yeah, he did. I always thought he was pissed his Dad didn't get to do it in 91. Cheney's interest for Haliburton didn't dissuade him either.

Never figured how Rumsfeld fit in, you have a better fix on the whole situation I am sure (seriously). I know Rummy would love the Roundup EO... (shouldn't go there, on me.)

he had no choice.

I saw the intel on his desk. He had a WMD-capable dictator in active liaison with AQ while we were still digging bodies out of the rubble in New York City.

Put all the worst-case scenarios of invasion on the table. None of them, individually or collectively, outweighed the risk of a WMD attack on an American city from a terror group who had just engaged in a spectacularly successful operation on our soil. The choice was to run the risk of an attack with 1000x or more casualties of 9/11, or run the risk of what ended up happening in Iraq.

I'm no Bushie. W had no choice.




Who provided that false intel that Sadaam had or was working toward nuclear weapons?


There was a lot of intelligence, from a variety of sources, to include satellite imagery, that he had an active program. And when I say "there was a lot" I mean...I actually read most of them. And it had to be read in context of an active WMD program which had not just produced WMDs, but actively used them against Kurds in northern Iraq.

In intel analysis, macro trends are hugely important. Where is the mainstream of the flow of reporting? How many and how broad are the outliers? ALL of the intel on Iraqi WMD, from US sources and all liaison sources, were very consistent that Saddam already had chemical and biological weapons (as evidenced by use) and was working on nuclear weapons. The only thing in question was how close he was to nuclear capability. The number of sources saying Saddam did NOT have an active nuclear program was basically one - an Iraqi defector. And that source was a massive outlier. So how do youjust toss out a whole building full of intel that said he had something going on just one report? (you can't. no matter what your gut tells you. You have to point out that both exist and let the policy maker decide. And in this case, the policy maker looked at a mountain of reports that said yes and weighed it all against a single manila folder of reports which said the opposite.)

Bush made the right call to remove Saddam.
The eff-up happened in the nation-building thereafter.



Totally correct on both counts.

Unfortunately most Americans have zero comprehension of anything related to the Iraq war.

and no interest in gaining any learning anything about geopolitics, because to do so would force them to change their position on a whole bunch of things.
whiterock
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The_barBEARian said:

Porteroso said:

boognish_bear said:



One of those tweets where the guy hopes the sheeple of America will read a few words and assume they accurately describe the video.

What he said, is that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons that threaten Europe and America. And then, that he prefers to solve this through diplomacy, but that we are not afraid to stop their nuclear weapons program however we have to.

Being anti war is popular right now, but good on Democrats to applaud these words. We quibble over many things, but one thing that should unite us is not letting terrorists get nukes.


The Israelis already have them and Trump admin is facilitating the Saudis having them in the future.

Notably, neither of them are State Sponsors of Terrorism who as a matter of policy have killed thousands of American citizens.

Only a dumbass would think Iranians with nuclear weapons on intercontinental ballistic missiles is of no consequence to the USA.
whiterock
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KaiBear said:

muddybrazos said:

KaiBear said:

Would be very surprised if Trump leads the US into a general war with Iran.

A. The American people would never support it.
B. Iran does not threaten the security of the United States.
C. Such a war would severely damage his rebuilding of the US economy via foreign investments.

Agreed and I think some of his top generals are telling him as much. I hope Rubio feels the same bc he will probably make the final call. Vance is trying to straddle the line bc he knows his potential future voters do not want a war.

Does not matter what line Vance atempts to straddle. He will not be the next POTUS.

But Rubio might.

He better keep Trump in line and the US out of war.

zero chance we go to war with Iran.

Now, we are for sure are about to bomb the hell out of them to force regime change.
The_barBEARian
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whiterock said:

The_barBEARian said:

Porteroso said:

boognish_bear said:



One of those tweets where the guy hopes the sheeple of America will read a few words and assume they accurately describe the video.

What he said, is that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons that threaten Europe and America. And then, that he prefers to solve this through diplomacy, but that we are not afraid to stop their nuclear weapons program however we have to.

Being anti war is popular right now, but good on Democrats to applaud these words. We quibble over many things, but one thing that should unite us is not letting terrorists get nukes.


The Israelis already have them and Trump admin is facilitating the Saudis having them in the future.

Notably, neither of them are State Sponsors of Terrorism who as a matter of policy have killed thousands of American citizens.

Only a dumbass would think Iranians with nuclear weapons on intercontinental ballistic missiles is of no consequence to the USA.


The Saudis arent state sponsors of terrorism?!?!

Even most of your Boomer colleagues will disagree with you on that.

There is no point debating Israel with you. Your old man recalcitrance you would never countenance Israel as a rogue state that flouts international law.
FLBear5630
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whiterock said:

KaiBear said:

muddybrazos said:

KaiBear said:

Would be very surprised if Trump leads the US into a general war with Iran.

A. The American people would never support it.
B. Iran does not threaten the security of the United States.
C. Such a war would severely damage his rebuilding of the US economy via foreign investments.

Agreed and I think some of his top generals are telling him as much. I hope Rubio feels the same bc he will probably make the final call. Vance is trying to straddle the line bc he knows his potential future voters do not want a war.

Does not matter what line Vance atempts to straddle. He will not be the next POTUS.

But Rubio might.

He better keep Trump in line and the US out of war.

zero chance we go to war with Iran.

Now, we are for sure are about to bomb the hell out of them to force regime change.


That has a history of working. Air power has never forced regime change. Boots on the ground and staying is all that works, with the US as a Military Governor to start. It has to be complete or a waste of time.
whiterock
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The_barBEARian said:

whiterock said:

The_barBEARian said:

Porteroso said:

boognish_bear said:



One of those tweets where the guy hopes the sheeple of America will read a few words and assume they accurately describe the video.

What he said, is that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons that threaten Europe and America. And then, that he prefers to solve this through diplomacy, but that we are not afraid to stop their nuclear weapons program however we have to.

Being anti war is popular right now, but good on Democrats to applaud these words. We quibble over many things, but one thing that should unite us is not letting terrorists get nukes.


The Israelis already have them and Trump admin is facilitating the Saudis having them in the future.

Notably, neither of them are State Sponsors of Terrorism who as a matter of policy have killed thousands of American citizens.

Only a dumbass would think Iranians with nuclear weapons on intercontinental ballistic missiles is of no consequence to the USA.


The Saudis arent state sponsors of terrorism?!?!

Even most of your Boomer colleagues will disagree with you on that.

There is no point debating Israel with you. Your old man recalcitrance you would never countenance Israel as a rogue state that flouts international law.

Sigh. Our State Department maintains a formal list of "state sponsors of terror." The Saudis are not now, nor have ever been state sponsors of terror. They do not organize terror activity as an instrument of statecraft like Iran, Iraq, Syria, Libya, North Korea, Sudan, and others do and/or have done. They do not train terror groups on their soil. They do not order their military or intel agencies, directly or via proxies, to conduct terror operations against their enemies. They actually work hard to coordinate their foreign policy agenda not to conflict with ours, and have done the entirety of the post-WWII era. That's what successful diplomacy looks like.

I once lived in a country that was a state sponsor of terrorism. Was Acting Chief of Station when they went on the list. So have very intimate experience on the topic.

You really, really suck at this stuff.

whiterock
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FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

KaiBear said:

muddybrazos said:

KaiBear said:

Would be very surprised if Trump leads the US into a general war with Iran.

A. The American people would never support it.
B. Iran does not threaten the security of the United States.
C. Such a war would severely damage his rebuilding of the US economy via foreign investments.

Agreed and I think some of his top generals are telling him as much. I hope Rubio feels the same bc he will probably make the final call. Vance is trying to straddle the line bc he knows his potential future voters do not want a war.

Does not matter what line Vance atempts to straddle. He will not be the next POTUS.

But Rubio might.

He better keep Trump in line and the US out of war.

zero chance we go to war with Iran.

Now, we are for sure are about to bomb the hell out of them to force regime change.


That has a history of working. Air power has never forced regime change. Boots on the ground and staying is all that works, with the US as a Military Governor to start. It has to be complete or a waste of time.

You know better than that. Think harder. Ther are so, so many examples of US-fostered regime change occurring without invasion. Take, for example the USSR......
 
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