Recession

27,804 Views | 385 Replies | Last: 3 hrs ago by boognish_bear
boognish_bear
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That's a lot of zeros....

I don't have a ton of crypto....but I keep just a little for speculative fun. There have been some wild ups and downs over the years.

boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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muddybrazos
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boognish_bear said:

That's a lot of zeros....

I don't have a ton of crypto....but I keep just a little for speculative fun. There have been some wild ups and downs over the years.


You get a lot more volatility in crypto bc people can trade using 10x or even 20-100x leverage. When things go down it triggers a lot of margin calls just like when we get a big green candle going up the shorts get rekt. I trade on margin sometimes in my brokerage account and sell naked puts sometimes but I would never dream of going on 10x leverage in crypto. That seems like a recipe to wipe out your whole account and then some.
Aliceinbubbleland
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GrowlTowel said:

contrario said:

Harrison Bergeron said:

Frank Galvin said:

Harrison Bergeron said:

We had a recession in 2020 ... the Orwellian media just redefined the word the mean "cannot happen under a Democrat."
In 2020 Donald Trump was president.


Caught me. You found a typo. 2021.
Exactly what definition of recession are you using?

Trump supporter accuses media of redefining a recession then proceeds to redefine a recession. Classic…



I will use this one that happened to me yesterday.


I live in Northwest Houston. I went to Kroger's yesterday for a quick grocery trip. As such, I grabbed the small shopping cart. I loaded the cart with mostly common items - milk, eggs, juice, cheese, hamburger meat, etc.


Altogether at checkout, my bill was $204.55. The young clerk said "hard to believe you fit 200 dollars worth of stuff into that small cart."

My response: "Good point, you could not have done that 5 years ago."


This is Biden's economy.

Lots of beer, wine, soft drinks ruin a bill.

Astros in Home Stretch Geaux Texans
boognish_bear
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Oldbear83
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Aliceinbubbleland said:

GrowlTowel said:

contrario said:

Harrison Bergeron said:

Frank Galvin said:

Harrison Bergeron said:

We had a recession in 2020 ... the Orwellian media just redefined the word the mean "cannot happen under a Democrat."
In 2020 Donald Trump was president.


Caught me. You found a typo. 2021.
Exactly what definition of recession are you using?

Trump supporter accuses media of redefining a recession then proceeds to redefine a recession. Classic…



I will use this one that happened to me yesterday.


I live in Northwest Houston. I went to Kroger's yesterday for a quick grocery trip. As such, I grabbed the small shopping cart. I loaded the cart with mostly common items - milk, eggs, juice, cheese, hamburger meat, etc.


Altogether at checkout, my bill was $204.55. The young clerk said "hard to believe you fit 200 dollars worth of stuff into that small cart."

My response: "Good point, you could not have done that 5 years ago."


This is Biden's economy.

Lots of beer, wine, soft drinks ruin a bill.


Not to mention your liver and kidneys ...
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
4th and Inches
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boognish_bear said:


yay for bouncing volatility
“The Internet is just a world passing around notes in a classroom.”

Jon Stewart
boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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BearFan33
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boognish_bear said:


Not refusing, can't
boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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4th and Inches
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Your last two posts should sound major alarms to people.. lots more earning more wages yet People still cant make ends meet

That is a huge problem
“The Internet is just a world passing around notes in a classroom.”

Jon Stewart
FLBear5630
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4th and Inches said:

Your last two posts should sound major alarms to people.. lots more earning more wages yet People still cant make ends meet

That is a huge problem
This is not an income problem. This is a price problem. You can absorb it for a little while, but it has reached the point where people are going to start defaulting. People can talk live within your means all they want, most people having problems by the time they knew there was a problem they are already there. No solution but time and paying. Biden has f-ed this economy for a good 5 to 10 years.

But, I am sure there will be some good brow beating of people that spent too much and bragging of how well off they are. It will be the usual cast of characters.
boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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TinFoilHatPreacherBear
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Not sure how "real" the numbers are but I think we all know intuitively that inflation has slowed. We see it in the things we buy. Problem is the cumulative inflation over the the past 3-4 years has destroyed the people's savings and people aren't able to keep up now. People have settled into their new reality of feeling poor and not being able to buy much now, prices are stalling because of it.
4th and Inches
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boognish_bear said:


weak jobs, less spending, lower inflation..
“The Internet is just a world passing around notes in a classroom.”

Jon Stewart
boognish_bear
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TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

Not sure how "real" the numbers are but I think we all know intuitively that inflation has slowed. We see it in the things we buy. Problem is the cumulative inflation over the the past 3-4 years has destroyed the people's savings and people aren't able to keep up now. People have settled into their new reality of feeling poor and not being able to buy much now, prices are stalling because of it.
Yep....in general salary increases have not kept pace with inflation and peoples' buying power has diminished. Hopefully as consumers start to tighten their wallets we will see some prices on some goods come down.



Johnny Bear
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TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

Not sure how "real" the numbers are but I think we all know intuitively that inflation has slowed. We see it in the things we buy. Problem is the cumulative inflation over the the past 3-4 years has destroyed the people's savings and people aren't able to keep up now. People have settled into their new reality of feeling poor and not being able to buy much now, prices are stalling because of it.

Of course the dims will spin this as proof that Bidenomics is working and the MSM will enthusiastically carry their water on it as always.
muddybrazos
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Forest Bueller_bf
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TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

Not sure how "real" the numbers are but I think we all know intuitively that inflation has slowed. We see it in the things we buy. Problem is the cumulative inflation over the the past 3-4 years has destroyed the people's savings and people aren't able to keep up now. People have settled into their new reality of feeling poor and not being able to buy much now, prices are stalling because of it.
This is reality for people from the lower middle class to the upper middle class.

Those in "poverty" have things supplied for them so no real change, those that are truly wealthy
are going to be doing well, unless they fall out of the wealthy category.

This pretty much sums it up for probably about 70% of people.
trey3216
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FLBear5630 said:

4th and Inches said:

Your last two posts should sound major alarms to people.. lots more earning more wages yet People still cant make ends meet

That is a huge problem
This is not an income problem. This is a price problem. You can absorb it for a little while, but it has reached the point where people are going to start defaulting. People can talk live within your means all they want, most people having problems by the time they knew there was a problem they are already there. No solution but time and paying. Biden has f-ed this economy for a good 5 to 10 years.

But, I am sure there will be some good brow beating of people that spent too much and bragging of how well off they are. It will be the usual cast of characters.
Income is a a variable in the price/cost function. Therefore it is both a part of the problem and a part of the solution.
Mr. Treehorn treats objects like women, man.
FLBear5630
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4th and Inches said:

boognish_bear said:


weak jobs, less spending, lower inflation..
On what? What is bringing it down? If it is on housing or durable goods, that is not a good thing. Means people are not buying to allocate to other areas and prices are coming down. What is driving it down? It is not groceries...
4th and Inches
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FLBear5630 said:

4th and Inches said:

boognish_bear said:


weak jobs, less spending, lower inflation..
On what? What is bringing it down? If it is on housing or durable goods, that is not a good thing. Means people are not buying to allocate to other areas and prices are coming down. What is driving it down? It is not groceries...
look at housing- in a housing crisis where we need more.. single family builds are flat after being down in 2023.. multifamilies are sinking like a stone, nearly half of the high in 2023
“The Internet is just a world passing around notes in a classroom.”

Jon Stewart
trey3216
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4th and Inches said:

FLBear5630 said:

4th and Inches said:

boognish_bear said:


weak jobs, less spending, lower inflation..
On what? What is bringing it down? If it is on housing or durable goods, that is not a good thing. Means people are not buying to allocate to other areas and prices are coming down. What is driving it down? It is not groceries...
look at housing- in a housing crisis where we need more.. single family builds are flat after being down in 2023.. multifamilies are sinking like a stone, nearly half of the high in 2023

Mutli-family is down because developers got drunker than Ted Kennedy on ZIRP. Even worse than tech. THey're actually having to .....gasp.....collect rent, and restructure projects to make them 10-20 year time horizons rather than develop and sell to anyone with a 1031 waiting or enough cash to pawn those long gone cap rates in the 7 range.
Mr. Treehorn treats objects like women, man.
4th and Inches
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Since Biden/Harris took office:

Gas: +50.5%
Electricity: +31.7%
Fuel oil: +49.1%
Airfare: +22.6%
Hotels: +51.2%
Groceries: +21.6%
Natural gas: +24.7%
Eating out: +23%
New vehicle: +42%
Used vehicle: +24%
Baby food: +30.1%
Rent: +22%
Transportation: +32.9%
Car insurance: +54.3%
Mortgage rates: +80%

Unsustainable
“The Internet is just a world passing around notes in a classroom.”

Jon Stewart
trey3216
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4th and Inches said:

Since Biden/Harris took office:

Gas: +50.5%
Electricity: +31.7%
Fuel oil: +49.1%
Airfare: +22.6%
Hotels: +51.2%
Groceries: +21.6%
Natural gas: +24.7%
Eating out: +23%
New vehicle: +42%
Used vehicle: +24%
Baby food: +30.1%
Rent: +22%
Transportation: +32.9%
Car insurance: +54.3%
Mortgage rates: +80%

Unsustainable
I'm not going to count Gas, as that was at a virtually non-sensical number due to COVID (even though things were already starting to recover by then, the number was still artificially low ). But the rest of it is most certainly unsustainable. Hard asset bubble popping would be one of the only ways out of it, and it's damn sure the one we don't want to have to give way to.
Mr. Treehorn treats objects like women, man.
TinFoilHatPreacherBear
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trey3216 said:

4th and Inches said:

Since Biden/Harris took office:

Gas: +50.5%
Electricity: +31.7%
Fuel oil: +49.1%
Airfare: +22.6%
Hotels: +51.2%
Groceries: +21.6%
Natural gas: +24.7%
Eating out: +23%
New vehicle: +42%
Used vehicle: +24%
Baby food: +30.1%
Rent: +22%
Transportation: +32.9%
Car insurance: +54.3%
Mortgage rates: +80%

Unsustainable
I'm not going to count Gas, as that was at a virtually non-sensical number due to COVID (even though things were already starting to recover by then, the number was still artificially low ). But the rest of it is most certainly unsustainable. Hard asset bubble popping would be one of the only ways out of it, and it's damn sure the one we don't want to have to give way to.


No way groceries are only 20%, the weighted average increase has to be higher for most commonly purchased items pre 2021 vs now. Has to be, right?
trey3216
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TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

trey3216 said:

4th and Inches said:

Since Biden/Harris took office:

Gas: +50.5%
Electricity: +31.7%
Fuel oil: +49.1%
Airfare: +22.6%
Hotels: +51.2%
Groceries: +21.6%
Natural gas: +24.7%
Eating out: +23%
New vehicle: +42%
Used vehicle: +24%
Baby food: +30.1%
Rent: +22%
Transportation: +32.9%
Car insurance: +54.3%
Mortgage rates: +80%

Unsustainable
I'm not going to count Gas, as that was at a virtually non-sensical number due to COVID (even though things were already starting to recover by then, the number was still artificially low ). But the rest of it is most certainly unsustainable. Hard asset bubble popping would be one of the only ways out of it, and it's damn sure the one we don't want to have to give way to.


No way groceries are only 20%, the weighted average increase has to be higher for most commonly purchased items pre 2021 vs now. Has to be, right?
No doubt in my mind the grocery numbers are far off. I'd bet the real number is closer to 45% than it is to 20%
Mr. Treehorn treats objects like women, man.
boykin_spaniel
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The Fed has one tool to combat inflation and that is the rate. Raising the rate takes time to have an impact on the economy. No politician wants the rate increased during their term so they fight the Fed tooth and nail to not raise rates. Fed should've raised rates earlier but they didn't. Fed also likes a certain level of unemployment. Pumping trillions into the economy (both presidents added to this), being hostile to North American oil and gas (Biden), and throw in some geopolitical factors like a tariff war with China, Russia/Ukraine war (two big wheat and fertilizer producers plus Russian gas), and Iranian backed terror groups closing shipping lanes and obviously prices will go up on every day items.

We need to finish the pipeline with Canada, issue more drilling permits, continue wind and solar construction where it makes sense environmentally, and build out nuclear infrastructure. Continue reshoring critical manufacturing to North America, streamline immigration process for good hardworking people while creating a strong border, create migrant work visas for low paying jobs agriculture relies on (commit a crime and lose your visa, over stay your visa and get barred from reapplying), open research into inexpensive pharma alternatives like psychedelics, weed, and repurposed drugs and get insurance behind it, increase competition into healthcare marketplace with shopping across state lines and allowing groups to form healthcare co-ops to negotiate with insurers, reopen mental hospitals via public/private partnerships, limit big pharma advertising and put those dollars into said mental hospitals, I'll leave it there for now…

Alas, who cares what I think for I am not an "expert"
 
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