War with Iran?

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whiterock
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The_barBEARian said:

whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:



Yeah, he did. I always thought he was pissed his Dad didn't get to do it in 91. Cheney's interest for Haliburton didn't dissuade him either.

Never figured how Rumsfeld fit in, you have a better fix on the whole situation I am sure (seriously). I know Rummy would love the Roundup EO... (shouldn't go there, on me.)

he had no choice.

I saw the intel on his desk. He had a WMD-capable dictator in active liaison with AQ while we were still digging bodies out of the rubble in New York City.

Put all the worst-case scenarios of invasion on the table. None of them, individually or collectively, outweighed the risk of a WMD attack on an American city from a terror group who had just engaged in a spectacularly successful operation on our soil. The choice was to run the risk of an attack with 1000x or more casualties of 9/11, or run the risk of what ended up happening in Iraq.

I'm no Bushie. W had no choice.




Who provided that false intel that Sadaam had or was working toward nuclear weapons?


There was a lot of intelligence, from a variety of sources, to include satellite imagery, that he had an active program. And when I say "there was a lot" I mean...I actually read most of them. And it had to be read in context of an active WMD program which had not just produced WMDs, but actively used them against Kurds in northern Iraq.

In intel analysis, macro trends are hugely important. Where is the mainstream of the flow of reporting? How many and how broad are the outliers? ALL of the intel on Iraqi WMD, from US sources and all liaison sources, were very consistent that Saddam already had chemical and biological weapons (as evidenced by use) and was working on nuclear weapons. The only thing in question was how close he was to nuclear capability. The number of sources saying Saddam did NOT have an active nuclear program was basically one - an Iraqi defector. And that source was a massive outlier. So how do youjust toss out a whole building full of intel that said he had something going on just one report? (you can't. no matter what your gut tells you. You have to point out that both exist and let the policy maker decide. And in this case, the policy maker looked at a mountain of reports that said yes and weighed it all against a single manila folder of reports which said the opposite.) Thanks to our invasion of Iraq and subsequent deposition of Saddam, we no longer have to worry about whether or not we were at risk of a State Sponsor of Terror dangling nuclear weapons in front of a terror group that had just killed over 3k Americans on American soil..

Bush's problem was one of expectations. He allowed public perception to expect to see large warehouses of boxes with big "nuclear weapons inside" labels on them. That was never the case. Nor did it need to be to justify invading Iraq. How could we allow a state which had used domestically produced chemical and biological weapons on its own people to engage in liaison with a terrorist group which had just conducted a mass terror event on US soil? Answer: it was an unacceptable risk.

Bush made the right call to remove Saddam.
The eff-up happened in the nation-building thereafter.
Sam Lowry
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The_barBEARian said:

whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:



Yeah, he did. I always thought he was pissed his Dad didn't get to do it in 91. Cheney's interest for Haliburton didn't dissuade him either.

Never figured how Rumsfeld fit in, you have a better fix on the whole situation I am sure (seriously). I know Rummy would love the Roundup EO... (shouldn't go there, on me.)

he had no choice.

I saw the intel on his desk. He had a WMD-capable dictator in active liaison with AQ while we were still digging bodies out of the rubble in New York City.

Put all the worst-case scenarios of invasion on the table. None of them, individually or collectively, outweighed the risk of a WMD attack on an American city from a terror group who had just engaged in a spectacularly successful operation on our soil. The choice was to run the risk of an attack with 1000x or more casualties of 9/11, or run the risk of what ended up happening in Iraq.

I'm no Bushie. W had no choice.




Who provided that false intel that Sadaam had or was working toward nuclear weapons?


Whiterock did, apparently.
The_barBEARian
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Sam Lowry said:

The_barBEARian said:

whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:



Yeah, he did. I always thought he was pissed his Dad didn't get to do it in 91. Cheney's interest for Haliburton didn't dissuade him either.

Never figured how Rumsfeld fit in, you have a better fix on the whole situation I am sure (seriously). I know Rummy would love the Roundup EO... (shouldn't go there, on me.)

he had no choice.

I saw the intel on his desk. He had a WMD-capable dictator in active liaison with AQ while we were still digging bodies out of the rubble in New York City.

Put all the worst-case scenarios of invasion on the table. None of them, individually or collectively, outweighed the risk of a WMD attack on an American city from a terror group who had just engaged in a spectacularly successful operation on our soil. The choice was to run the risk of an attack with 1000x or more casualties of 9/11, or run the risk of what ended up happening in Iraq.

I'm no Bushie. W had no choice.




Who provided that false intel that Sadaam had or was working toward nuclear weapons?


Whiterock did, apparently.


Whiterock now wants us to go to war with Iran under the same false pretenses... he's like a lame villian from some Tom Clancey story
Porteroso
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muddybrazos said:



That is crazy. If it were a reasonable take, you'd want every little village dotting the globe to have nukes, because that means nobody else would ever use them!
boognish_bear
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KaiBear
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whiterock said:

The_barBEARian said:

whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:



Yeah, he did. I always thought he was pissed his Dad didn't get to do it in 91. Cheney's interest for Haliburton didn't dissuade him either.

Never figured how Rumsfeld fit in, you have a better fix on the whole situation I am sure (seriously). I know Rummy would love the Roundup EO... (shouldn't go there, on me.)

he had no choice.

I saw the intel on his desk. He had a WMD-capable dictator in active liaison with AQ while we were still digging bodies out of the rubble in New York City.

Put all the worst-case scenarios of invasion on the table. None of them, individually or collectively, outweighed the risk of a WMD attack on an American city from a terror group who had just engaged in a spectacularly successful operation on our soil. The choice was to run the risk of an attack with 1000x or more casualties of 9/11, or run the risk of what ended up happening in Iraq.

I'm no Bushie. W had no choice.




Who provided that false intel that Sadaam had or was working toward nuclear weapons?


There was a lot of intelligence, from a variety of sources, to include satellite imagery, that he had an active program. And when I say "there was a lot" I mean...I actually read most of them. And it had to be read in context of an active WMD program which had not just produced WMDs, but actively used them against Kurds in northern Iraq.

In intel analysis, macro trends are hugely important. Where is the mainstream of the flow of reporting? How many and how broad are the outliers? ALL of the intel on Iraqi WMD, from US sources and all liaison sources, were very consistent that Saddam already had chemical and biological weapons (as evidenced by use) and was working on nuclear weapons. The only thing in question was how close he was to nuclear capability. The number of sources saying Saddam did NOT have an active nuclear program was basically one - an Iraqi defector. And that source was a massive outlier. So how do youjust toss out a whole building full of intel that said he had something going on just one report? (you can't. no matter what your gut tells you. You have to point out that both exist and let the policy maker decide. And in this case, the policy maker looked at a mountain of reports that said yes and weighed it all against a single manila folder of reports which said the opposite.)

Bush made the right call to remove Saddam.
The eff-up happened in the nation-building thereafter.



Totally correct on both counts.

Unfortunately most Americans have zero comprehension of anything related to the Iraq war.
boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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FLBear5630
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boognish_bear said:




Glad Trump isn't a neocon playing world's policeman.
muddybrazos
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KaiBear
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Would be very surprised if Trump leads the US into a general war with Iran.

A. The American people would never support it.
B. Iran does not threaten the security of the United States.
C. Such a war would severely damage his rebuilding of the US economy via foreign investments.
muddybrazos
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KaiBear said:

Would be very surprised if Trump leads the US into a general war with Iran.

A. The American people would never support it.
B. Iran does not threaten the security of the United States.
C. Such a war would severely damage his rebuilding of the US economy via foreign investments.

Agreed and I think some of his top generals are telling him as much. I hope Rubio feels the same bc he will probably make the final call. Vance is trying to straddle the line bc he knows his potential future voters do not want a war.
KaiBear
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muddybrazos said:

KaiBear said:

Would be very surprised if Trump leads the US into a general war with Iran.

A. The American people would never support it.
B. Iran does not threaten the security of the United States.
C. Such a war would severely damage his rebuilding of the US economy via foreign investments.

Agreed and I think some of his top generals are telling him as much. I hope Rubio feels the same bc he will probably make the final call. Vance is trying to straddle the line bc he knows his potential future voters do not want a war.

Does not matter what line Vance atempts to straddle. He will not be the next POTUS.

But Rubio might.

He better keep Trump in line and the US out of war.
Porteroso
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boognish_bear said:



One of those tweets where the guy hopes the sheeple of America will read a few words and assume they accurately describe the video.

What he said, is that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons that threaten Europe and America. And then, that he prefers to solve this through diplomacy, but that we are not afraid to stop their nuclear weapons program however we have to.

Being anti war is popular right now, but good on Democrats to applaud these words. We quibble over many things, but one thing that should unite us is not letting terrorists get nukes.
Mitch Blood Green
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Porteroso said:

boognish_bear said:



One of those tweets where the guy hopes the sheeple of America will read a few words and assume they accurately describe the video.

What he said, is that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons that threaten Europe and America. And then, that he prefers to solve this through diplomacy, but that we are not afraid to stop their nuclear weapons program however we have to.

Being anti war is popular right now, but good on Democrats to applaud these words. We quibble over many things, but one thing that should unite us is not letting terrorists get nukes.

Maybe we can do an agreement with Iran, where they allow inspectors from multiple countries to ensure they are not trying to create nukes for war purposes.
The_barBEARian
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Porteroso said:

boognish_bear said:



One of those tweets where the guy hopes the sheeple of America will read a few words and assume they accurately describe the video.

What he said, is that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons that threaten Europe and America. And then, that he prefers to solve this through diplomacy, but that we are not afraid to stop their nuclear weapons program however we have to.

Being anti war is popular right now, but good on Democrats to applaud these words. We quibble over many things, but one thing that should unite us is not letting terrorists get nukes.


The Israelis already have them and Trump admin is facilitating the Saudis having them in the future.
whiterock
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KaiBear said:

whiterock said:

The_barBEARian said:

whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:



Yeah, he did. I always thought he was pissed his Dad didn't get to do it in 91. Cheney's interest for Haliburton didn't dissuade him either.

Never figured how Rumsfeld fit in, you have a better fix on the whole situation I am sure (seriously). I know Rummy would love the Roundup EO... (shouldn't go there, on me.)

he had no choice.

I saw the intel on his desk. He had a WMD-capable dictator in active liaison with AQ while we were still digging bodies out of the rubble in New York City.

Put all the worst-case scenarios of invasion on the table. None of them, individually or collectively, outweighed the risk of a WMD attack on an American city from a terror group who had just engaged in a spectacularly successful operation on our soil. The choice was to run the risk of an attack with 1000x or more casualties of 9/11, or run the risk of what ended up happening in Iraq.

I'm no Bushie. W had no choice.




Who provided that false intel that Sadaam had or was working toward nuclear weapons?


There was a lot of intelligence, from a variety of sources, to include satellite imagery, that he had an active program. And when I say "there was a lot" I mean...I actually read most of them. And it had to be read in context of an active WMD program which had not just produced WMDs, but actively used them against Kurds in northern Iraq.

In intel analysis, macro trends are hugely important. Where is the mainstream of the flow of reporting? How many and how broad are the outliers? ALL of the intel on Iraqi WMD, from US sources and all liaison sources, were very consistent that Saddam already had chemical and biological weapons (as evidenced by use) and was working on nuclear weapons. The only thing in question was how close he was to nuclear capability. The number of sources saying Saddam did NOT have an active nuclear program was basically one - an Iraqi defector. And that source was a massive outlier. So how do youjust toss out a whole building full of intel that said he had something going on just one report? (you can't. no matter what your gut tells you. You have to point out that both exist and let the policy maker decide. And in this case, the policy maker looked at a mountain of reports that said yes and weighed it all against a single manila folder of reports which said the opposite.)

Bush made the right call to remove Saddam.
The eff-up happened in the nation-building thereafter.



Totally correct on both counts.

Unfortunately most Americans have zero comprehension of anything related to the Iraq war.

and no interest in gaining any learning anything about geopolitics, because to do so would force them to change their position on a whole bunch of things.
whiterock
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The_barBEARian said:

Porteroso said:

boognish_bear said:



One of those tweets where the guy hopes the sheeple of America will read a few words and assume they accurately describe the video.

What he said, is that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons that threaten Europe and America. And then, that he prefers to solve this through diplomacy, but that we are not afraid to stop their nuclear weapons program however we have to.

Being anti war is popular right now, but good on Democrats to applaud these words. We quibble over many things, but one thing that should unite us is not letting terrorists get nukes.


The Israelis already have them and Trump admin is facilitating the Saudis having them in the future.

Notably, neither of them are State Sponsors of Terrorism who as a matter of policy have killed thousands of American citizens.

Only a dumbass would think Iranians with nuclear weapons on intercontinental ballistic missiles is of no consequence to the USA.
whiterock
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KaiBear said:

muddybrazos said:

KaiBear said:

Would be very surprised if Trump leads the US into a general war with Iran.

A. The American people would never support it.
B. Iran does not threaten the security of the United States.
C. Such a war would severely damage his rebuilding of the US economy via foreign investments.

Agreed and I think some of his top generals are telling him as much. I hope Rubio feels the same bc he will probably make the final call. Vance is trying to straddle the line bc he knows his potential future voters do not want a war.

Does not matter what line Vance atempts to straddle. He will not be the next POTUS.

But Rubio might.

He better keep Trump in line and the US out of war.

zero chance we go to war with Iran.

Now, we are for sure are about to bomb the hell out of them to force regime change.
The_barBEARian
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whiterock said:

The_barBEARian said:

Porteroso said:

boognish_bear said:



One of those tweets where the guy hopes the sheeple of America will read a few words and assume they accurately describe the video.

What he said, is that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons that threaten Europe and America. And then, that he prefers to solve this through diplomacy, but that we are not afraid to stop their nuclear weapons program however we have to.

Being anti war is popular right now, but good on Democrats to applaud these words. We quibble over many things, but one thing that should unite us is not letting terrorists get nukes.


The Israelis already have them and Trump admin is facilitating the Saudis having them in the future.

Notably, neither of them are State Sponsors of Terrorism who as a matter of policy have killed thousands of American citizens.

Only a dumbass would think Iranians with nuclear weapons on intercontinental ballistic missiles is of no consequence to the USA.


The Saudis arent state sponsors of terrorism?!?!

Even most of your Boomer colleagues will disagree with you on that.

There is no point debating Israel with you. Your old man recalcitrance you would never countenance Israel as a rogue state that flouts international law.
FLBear5630
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whiterock said:

KaiBear said:

muddybrazos said:

KaiBear said:

Would be very surprised if Trump leads the US into a general war with Iran.

A. The American people would never support it.
B. Iran does not threaten the security of the United States.
C. Such a war would severely damage his rebuilding of the US economy via foreign investments.

Agreed and I think some of his top generals are telling him as much. I hope Rubio feels the same bc he will probably make the final call. Vance is trying to straddle the line bc he knows his potential future voters do not want a war.

Does not matter what line Vance atempts to straddle. He will not be the next POTUS.

But Rubio might.

He better keep Trump in line and the US out of war.

zero chance we go to war with Iran.

Now, we are for sure are about to bomb the hell out of them to force regime change.


That has a history of working. Air power has never forced regime change. Boots on the ground and staying is all that works, with the US as a Military Governor to start. It has to be complete or a waste of time.
whiterock
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The_barBEARian said:

whiterock said:

The_barBEARian said:

Porteroso said:

boognish_bear said:



One of those tweets where the guy hopes the sheeple of America will read a few words and assume they accurately describe the video.

What he said, is that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons that threaten Europe and America. And then, that he prefers to solve this through diplomacy, but that we are not afraid to stop their nuclear weapons program however we have to.

Being anti war is popular right now, but good on Democrats to applaud these words. We quibble over many things, but one thing that should unite us is not letting terrorists get nukes.


The Israelis already have them and Trump admin is facilitating the Saudis having them in the future.

Notably, neither of them are State Sponsors of Terrorism who as a matter of policy have killed thousands of American citizens.

Only a dumbass would think Iranians with nuclear weapons on intercontinental ballistic missiles is of no consequence to the USA.


The Saudis arent state sponsors of terrorism?!?!

Even most of your Boomer colleagues will disagree with you on that.

There is no point debating Israel with you. Your old man recalcitrance you would never countenance Israel as a rogue state that flouts international law.

Sigh. Our State Department maintains a formal list of "state sponsors of terror." The Saudis are not now, nor have ever been state sponsors of terror. They do not organize terror activity as an instrument of statecraft like Iran, Iraq, Syria, Libya, North Korea, Sudan, and others do and/or have done. They do not train terror groups on their soil. They do not order their military or intel agencies, directly or via proxies, to conduct terror operations against their enemies. They actually work hard to coordinate their foreign policy agenda not to conflict with ours, and have done the entirety of the post-WWII era. That's what successful diplomacy looks like.

I once lived in a country that was a state sponsor of terrorism. Was Acting Chief of Station when they went on the list. So have very intimate experience on the topic.

You really, really suck at this stuff.

whiterock
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FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

KaiBear said:

muddybrazos said:

KaiBear said:

Would be very surprised if Trump leads the US into a general war with Iran.

A. The American people would never support it.
B. Iran does not threaten the security of the United States.
C. Such a war would severely damage his rebuilding of the US economy via foreign investments.

Agreed and I think some of his top generals are telling him as much. I hope Rubio feels the same bc he will probably make the final call. Vance is trying to straddle the line bc he knows his potential future voters do not want a war.

Does not matter what line Vance atempts to straddle. He will not be the next POTUS.

But Rubio might.

He better keep Trump in line and the US out of war.

zero chance we go to war with Iran.

Now, we are for sure are about to bomb the hell out of them to force regime change.


That has a history of working. Air power has never forced regime change. Boots on the ground and staying is all that works, with the US as a Military Governor to start. It has to be complete or a waste of time.

You know better than that. Think harder. Ther are so, so many examples of US-fostered regime change occurring without invasion. Take, for example the USSR......
FLBear5630
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whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

KaiBear said:

muddybrazos said:

KaiBear said:

Would be very surprised if Trump leads the US into a general war with Iran.

A. The American people would never support it.
B. Iran does not threaten the security of the United States.
C. Such a war would severely damage his rebuilding of the US economy via foreign investments.

Agreed and I think some of his top generals are telling him as much. I hope Rubio feels the same bc he will probably make the final call. Vance is trying to straddle the line bc he knows his potential future voters do not want a war.

Does not matter what line Vance atempts to straddle. He will not be the next POTUS.

But Rubio might.

He better keep Trump in line and the US out of war.

zero chance we go to war with Iran.

Now, we are for sure are about to bomb the hell out of them to force regime change.


That has a history of working. Air power has never forced regime change. Boots on the ground and staying is all that works, with the US as a Military Governor to start. It has to be complete or a waste of time.

You know better than that. Think harder. Ther are so, so many examples of US-fostered regime change occurring without invasion. Take, for example the USSR......


USSR? It took 50 years! No bombing and a lot of boots/sailors on the ground. So much so an era of our history is dominated by it.

Chile, Panama, Cuba, Guatemala, Congo, Iran, Viet Nam, Libya, Brazil... They usually dont turn out well.

Can you give me an example of one that didnt end up with a brutal dictator?
whiterock
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FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

KaiBear said:

muddybrazos said:

KaiBear said:

Would be very surprised if Trump leads the US into a general war with Iran.

A. The American people would never support it.
B. Iran does not threaten the security of the United States.
C. Such a war would severely damage his rebuilding of the US economy via foreign investments.

Agreed and I think some of his top generals are telling him as much. I hope Rubio feels the same bc he will probably make the final call. Vance is trying to straddle the line bc he knows his potential future voters do not want a war.

Does not matter what line Vance atempts to straddle. He will not be the next POTUS.

But Rubio might.

He better keep Trump in line and the US out of war.

zero chance we go to war with Iran.

Now, we are for sure are about to bomb the hell out of them to force regime change.


That has a history of working. Air power has never forced regime change. Boots on the ground and staying is all that works, with the US as a Military Governor to start. It has to be complete or a waste of time.

You know better than that. Think harder. Ther are so, so many examples of US-fostered regime change occurring without invasion. Take, for example the USSR......


USSR? It took 50 years! No bombing and a lot of boots/sailors on the ground. So much so an era of our history is dominated by it.
Reagan policy was the proximate cause of the Soviet collapse: ramping up military spending to levels the USSR could not afford to match, using diplomacy to dry up sources of Western capital and drive down the cost of oil. It created a perfect storm that the USSR could not survive. We appear to be watching it happen in Venezuela. Same may be about to unfold in Cuba. Even today...Russia is reeling. It's eaten thru its cash reserves and is now burning thru its gold reserves, to finance a war it cannot win in the field. It does not have another 24 months. Putin knows it and is cranking up repression at home to prepare for the troubles that will occur when the war ends disappointingly for them.

Chile, Panama, Cuba, Guatemala, Congo, Iran, Viet Nam, Libya, Brazil... They usually dont turn out well.
Your examples do not support your argument. Most of those countries today are stable, and to varying degrees cooperative toward the USA. Only three of them have been occupied by US troops for any significant length of time, and even then only 1 of those actions occurred in the last 50 years.

Can you give me an example of one that didnt end up with a brutal dictator?
in the pantheon of Stalin-esque brutal dictators, at least four of the countries you cited would qualify. all but one of them are better off today than they were under the last dictator they had.



You're making a terrible ahistorical argument. Regimes collapse all the time without military invasion and occupation. Covert action often helps destabilize weak regimes. Raids and blockades and bombing campaigns are not nothing. They can greatly complicate a regime's ability to survive. We do not have to Desert Storm our way thru countries to force them to change their policies toward us (which is the goal of regime change).

We accomplish an awful lot with diplomacy. And when that doesn't work, we usually work around the problem, try to isolate it, put up bulwarks to minimize the risks it poses, and let time inflict its wounds on bad business models. Today's policies toward Iran would not have worked in 1986, or 1996. But today, they are incredibly weak across the board and having to fire into crowds of unarmed civilians to hold on to power. We start cratering state assets and key infrastructure.....regime change is more likely to happen, and happen sooner. May happen even if we don't.

And regime change has a value in and of itself. It gives a Pavlovian lesson to the next regime that it's bad business to make an enemy of the USA. Life is always easier when the 900lb gorilla sees you as an asset rather than a liability.


LIB,MR BEARS
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ticktickticktickticktick

whiterock
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LIB,MR BEARS said:

ticktickticktickticktick



article is correct.

"... That is not a sequence of unrelated events. That is a countdown visible to anyone reading the timestamps..."

And the countdown is visible to Iran. It's how they know their window to negotiate is closing. Cut a deal now, or game on.
FLBear5630
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whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

KaiBear said:

muddybrazos said:

KaiBear said:

Would be very surprised if Trump leads the US into a general war with Iran.

A. The American people would never support it.
B. Iran does not threaten the security of the United States.
C. Such a war would severely damage his rebuilding of the US economy via foreign investments.

Agreed and I think some of his top generals are telling him as much. I hope Rubio feels the same bc he will probably make the final call. Vance is trying to straddle the line bc he knows his potential future voters do not want a war.

Does not matter what line Vance atempts to straddle. He will not be the next POTUS.

But Rubio might.

He better keep Trump in line and the US out of war.

zero chance we go to war with Iran.

Now, we are for sure are about to bomb the hell out of them to force regime change.


That has a history of working. Air power has never forced regime change. Boots on the ground and staying is all that works, with the US as a Military Governor to start. It has to be complete or a waste of time.

You know better than that. Think harder. Ther are so, so many examples of US-fostered regime change occurring without invasion. Take, for example the USSR......


USSR? It took 50 years! No bombing and a lot of boots/sailors on the ground. So much so an era of our history is dominated by it.
Reagan policy was the proximate cause of the Soviet collapse: ramping up military spending to levels the USSR could not afford to match, using diplomacy to dry up sources of Western capital and drive down the cost of oil. It created a perfect storm that the USSR could not survive. We appear to be watching it happen in Venezuela. Same may be about to unfold in Cuba. Even today...Russia is reeling. It's eaten thru its cash reserves and is now burning thru its gold reserves, to finance a war it cannot win in the field. It does not have another 24 months. Putin knows it and is cranking up repression at home to prepare for the troubles that will occur when the war ends disappointingly for them.

Chile, Panama, Cuba, Guatemala, Congo, Iran, Viet Nam, Libya, Brazil... They usually dont turn out well.
Your examples do not support your argument. Most of those countries today are stable, and to varying degrees cooperative toward the USA. Only three of them have been occupied by US troops for any significant length of time, and even then only 1 of those actions occurred in the last 50 years.

Can you give me an example of one that didnt end up with a brutal dictator?
in the pantheon of Stalin-esque brutal dictators, at least four of the countries you cited would qualify. all but one of them are better off today than they were under the last dictator they had.



You're making a terrible ahistorical argument. Regimes collapse all the time without military invasion and occupation. Covert action often helps destabilize weak regimes. Raids and blockades and bombing campaigns are not nothing. They can greatly complicate a regime's ability to survive. We do not have to Desert Storm our way thru countries to force them to change their policies toward us (which is the goal of regime change).

We accomplish an awful lot with diplomacy. And when that doesn't work, we usually work around the problem, try to isolate it, put up bulwarks to minimize the risks it poses, and let time inflict its wounds on bad business models. Today's policies toward Iran would not have worked in 1986, or 1996. But today, they are incredibly weak across the board and having to fire into crowds of unarmed civilians to hold on to power. We start cratering state assets and key infrastructure.....regime change is more likely to happen, and happen sooner. May happen even if we don't.

And regime change has a value in and of itself. It gives a Pavlovian lesson to the next regime that it's bad business to make an enemy of the USA. Life is always easier when the 900lb gorilla sees you as an asset rather than a liability.




Once again, you are missing the point. It rarely, if ever, ends well or the way planned by the "covert world", especially for the people on the ground.

The only "Nation Building" I have seen work, was Germany and Japan. We gutted the entire system, replaced it with another system and STAYED for 40 years +.

Name one of your "covert" regime changes that were a success and didn't end up with another dictator in place. And these have boots on the ground, not just air power. If you look at air power alone, the list gets very short. Most of the problems in the world are because of your overthrows after WW1.

You really think us bombing Iran is going to get rid of the existing regime and put a democratic one in place, without occupying? You are dreaming. Even with a population that many favor the west, I worked at an Iranian firm early in my career and have friends that came from Iran.

By the way, many would say WE couldn't afford Reagan's buildup and have never paid that debt off. But, that is another discussion. By the way, how many troops and bases do we still have in Europe to protect them from what we destroyed? We didn't start pulling our heavy armor out until the 2010's... Does that cost count as part of the cost?

If you are going to do it, do it. These half steps create more problems. Invade, take it and occupy. Otherwise it is the same cycle. And no one wants that.
Sam Lowry
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Installing dictators is considered a feature, not a bug. Whether Iran becomes another Iraq or another Syria depends largely on the CIA's ground game and the military's ammo stockpiles. There are reasons for concern on both fronts. One thing I don't expect is another round of face-saving gestures. If it's on now, it's on. FTR, I think it ends badly.
KaiBear
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whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

KaiBear said:

muddybrazos said:

KaiBear said:

Would be very surprised if Trump leads the US into a general war with Iran.

A. The American people would never support it.
B. Iran does not threaten the security of the United States.
C. Such a war would severely damage his rebuilding of the US economy via foreign investments.

Agreed and I think some of his top generals are telling him as much. I hope Rubio feels the same bc he will probably make the final call. Vance is trying to straddle the line bc he knows his potential future voters do not want a war.

Does not matter what line Vance atempts to straddle. He will not be the next POTUS.

But Rubio might.

He better keep Trump in line and the US out of war.

zero chance we go to war with Iran.

Now, we are for sure are about to bomb the hell out of them to force regime change.


That has a history of working. Air power has never forced regime change. Boots on the ground and staying is all that works, with the US as a Military Governor to start. It has to be complete or a waste of time.

You know better than that. Think harder. Ther are so, so many examples of US-fostered regime change occurring without invasion. Take, for example the USSR......


USSR? It took 50 years! No bombing and a lot of boots/sailors on the ground. So much so an era of our history is dominated by it.
Reagan policy was the proximate cause of the Soviet collapse: ramping up military spending to levels the USSR could not afford to match, using diplomacy to dry up sources of Western capital and drive down the cost of oil. It created a perfect storm that the USSR could not survive. We appear to be watching it happen in Venezuela. Same may be about to unfold in Cuba. Even today...Russia is reeling. It's eaten thru its cash reserves and is now burning thru its gold reserves, to finance a war it cannot win in the field. It does not have another 24 months. Putin knows it and is cranking up repression at home to prepare for the troubles that will occur when the war ends disappointingly for them.

Chile, Panama, Cuba, Guatemala, Congo, Iran, Viet Nam, Libya, Brazil... They usually dont turn out well.
Your examples do not support your argument. Most of those countries today are stable, and to varying degrees cooperative toward the USA. Only three of them have been occupied by US troops for any significant length of time, and even then only 1 of those actions occurred in the last 50 years.

Can you give me an example of one that didnt end up with a brutal dictator?
in the pantheon of Stalin-esque brutal dictators, at least four of the countries you cited would qualify. all but one of them are better off today than they were under the last dictator they had.



You're making a terrible ahistorical argument. Regimes collapse all the time without military invasion and occupation. Covert action often helps destabilize weak regimes. Raids and blockades and bombing campaigns are not nothing. They can greatly complicate a regime's ability to survive. We do not have to Desert Storm our way thru countries to force them to change their policies toward us (which is the goal of regime change).

We accomplish an awful lot with diplomacy. And when that doesn't work, we usually work around the problem, try to isolate it, put up bulwarks to minimize the risks it poses, and let time inflict its wounds on bad business models. Today's policies toward Iran would not have worked in 1986, or 1996. But today, they are incredibly weak across the board and having to fire into crowds of unarmed civilians to hold on to power. We start cratering state assets and key infrastructure.....regime change is more likely to happen, and happen sooner. May happen even if we don't.

And regime change has a value in and of itself. It gives a Pavlovian lesson to the next regime that it's bad business to make an enemy of the USA. Life is always easier when the 900lb gorilla sees you as an asset rather than a liability.




Absolutely correct. Reagan's greatest legacy was engineering the collapse of the Soviet Union. Still regard the fall of the Berlin Wall as one of the high points of US foreign policy.
LIB,MR BEARS
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LIB,MR BEARS
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