78k ballots posted to Maricopa. @katiehobbs netted an additional 7,494 votes. I'll have the rest of the breakdowns in a moment.@katiehobbs 54.8@karilake 45.1
— The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru (@Garrett_Archer) November 11, 2022
OFFICIAL ELECTION THREAD, 11-8-22
43,364 Views |
1063 Replies |
Last: 1 yr ago by whiterock
whiterock said:Best way they can do that is to stay out of the race. The more candidates that enter, the harder it will be to defeat Trump. All it will do is divide up the non-Trump vote as the primaries turn winner-take-all. His core base will stand strong.Adriacus Peratuun said:
Every stupid self-serving Trump tweet simply pushes a few more people over to Desantis.
Sununu and Haley can [if they are smart team players] kill a Trump candidacy early. Let him lose 7-8 of the first 10 primaries and he is done.
He's been in the mid-50's all year. I'd be guesstimating on what is his hard floor, but if it's 40% or better he's invulnerable in anything larger than a three horse race. and I don't think it would be much less than 40%.
The folks here who want to move on from Trump are not being unrealistic in their desire, only about how hard it could be to beat him. And they're being even less realistic about how hard it will be to find another candidate capable of inspiring firing up conservative voters to the point of spontaneous boat parades.
Desantis has some stuff going for him, for sure. But the crowd here is letting their hopes get way out over the tips of their analysis
Sounds great. Trump fires up the base.
And gets his ass kicked in the general election.
Again.
Yours is a losing strategy.
No thanks.
thats actually not that bad of a drop considering its all pre ED ballots.WacoKelly83 said:78k ballots posted to Maricopa. @katiehobbs netted an additional 7,494 votes. I'll have the rest of the breakdowns in a moment.@katiehobbs 54.8@karilake 45.1
— The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru (@Garrett_Archer) November 11, 2022
“Mix a little foolishness with your serious plans. It is lovely to be silly at the right moment.”
–Horace
“Insomnia sharpens your math skills because you spend all night calculating how much sleep you’ll get if you’re able to ‘fall asleep right now.’ “
–Horace
“Insomnia sharpens your math skills because you spend all night calculating how much sleep you’ll get if you’re able to ‘fall asleep right now.’ “
MSNBC is now saying what we've been saying for days. Kari will be Arizona's next governor. pic.twitter.com/r9sYZgjrFv
— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) November 11, 2022
We are seeing the last few big, pro-Dem drops. Soon they’ll run out, & then there are hundreds of thousands of pro-R ballots to count. We will overtake them and win. 🇺🇸
— Blake Masters (@bgmasters) November 11, 2022
"Republicans Pounce" - part 348
As Arizona counts votes, Republicans seize on Election Day glitches (msn.com)
As Arizona counts votes, Republicans seize on Election Day glitches (msn.com)
Strange how so many congressional races are still undecided .
Magical win for Pelosi on the horizon ?
Magical win for Pelosi on the horizon ?
Canada2017 said:
Strange how so many congressional races are still undecided .
Magical win for Pelosi on the horizon ?
No, narrow R majority
It shouldn't be hard to defeat him. The fact it could be is an indictment on the people who continue to prop him up. Please stop.whiterock said:Best way they can do that is to stay out of the race. The more candidates that enter, the harder it will be to defeat Trump. All it will do is divide up the non-Trump vote as the primaries turn winner-take-all. His core base will stand strong.Adriacus Peratuun said:
Every stupid self-serving Trump tweet simply pushes a few more people over to Desantis.
Sununu and Haley can [if they are smart team players] kill a Trump candidacy early. Let him lose 7-8 of the first 10 primaries and he is done.
He's been in the mid-50's all year. I'd be guesstimating on what is his hard floor, but if it's 40% or better he's invulnerable in anything larger than a three horse race. and I don't think it would be much less than 40%.
The folks here who want to move on from Trump are not being unrealistic in their desire, only about how hard it could be to beat him. And they're being even less realistic about how hard it will be to find another candidate capable of inspiring firing up conservative voters to the point of spontaneous boat parades.
Desantis has some stuff going for him, for sure. But the crowd here is letting their hopes get way out over the tips of their analysis
ATL Bear said:It shouldn't be hard to defeat him. The fact it could be is an indictment on the people who continue to prop him up. Please stop.whiterock said:Best way they can do that is to stay out of the race. The more candidates that enter, the harder it will be to defeat Trump. All it will do is divide up the non-Trump vote as the primaries turn winner-take-all. His core base will stand strong.Adriacus Peratuun said:
Every stupid self-serving Trump tweet simply pushes a few more people over to Desantis.
Sununu and Haley can [if they are smart team players] kill a Trump candidacy early. Let him lose 7-8 of the first 10 primaries and he is done.
He's been in the mid-50's all year. I'd be guesstimating on what is his hard floor, but if it's 40% or better he's invulnerable in anything larger than a three horse race. and I don't think it would be much less than 40%.
The folks here who want to move on from Trump are not being unrealistic in their desire, only about how hard it could be to beat him. And they're being even less realistic about how hard it will be to find another candidate capable of inspiring firing up conservative voters to the point of spontaneous boat parades.
Desantis has some stuff going for him, for sure. But the crowd here is letting their hopes get way out over the tips of their analysis
I think the only thing needed to beat Trump is an alternative. An adult, one that has actually successfully managed a State and taken on the Left when challenged with stupid ideas. No way Trump beats DeSantis nationally head to head for nomination. Trump knows it and is trying to intimidate DeSantis. The guy served at Guantanomo he ain't gonna be intimidated by Trump.
Trump will always have the whack job Gaetz and Greene types. Buy I suspect they are much lower numbers than people think.
It amazes me that after Tuesday, anyone still thinks Trump should be the next Republican nominee. If 2020 didn't prove he's going to get his ass kicked in a general election, his myriad of legal troubles and unethical behavior since then, as well as the resounding defeat of Trumpism this past Tuesday, should have waken them to this fact.ATL Bear said:It shouldn't be hard to defeat him. The fact it could be is an indictment on the people who continue to prop him up. Please stop.whiterock said:Best way they can do that is to stay out of the race. The more candidates that enter, the harder it will be to defeat Trump. All it will do is divide up the non-Trump vote as the primaries turn winner-take-all. His core base will stand strong.Adriacus Peratuun said:
Every stupid self-serving Trump tweet simply pushes a few more people over to Desantis.
Sununu and Haley can [if they are smart team players] kill a Trump candidacy early. Let him lose 7-8 of the first 10 primaries and he is done.
He's been in the mid-50's all year. I'd be guesstimating on what is his hard floor, but if it's 40% or better he's invulnerable in anything larger than a three horse race. and I don't think it would be much less than 40%.
The folks here who want to move on from Trump are not being unrealistic in their desire, only about how hard it could be to beat him. And they're being even less realistic about how hard it will be to find another candidate capable of inspiring firing up conservative voters to the point of spontaneous boat parades.
Desantis has some stuff going for him, for sure. But the crowd here is letting their hopes get way out over the tips of their analysis
Alas, we are very slow learners.
Super close now in Nevada for Senate. Dems may "find" just enough votes for the W.
Probably a recount either way, going to be less than 1/2 of a percent.
Probably a recount either way, going to be less than 1/2 of a percent.
The quicker we get to grieving from hoping, the better off we are . . . . We've lost the Senate. Time to rebuild.Forest Bueller said:
Super close now in Nevada for Senate. Dems may "find" just enough votes for the W.
Probably a recount either way, going to be less than 1/2 of a percent.
Yep. Warnock/Walker may not even matter. The question now is, did Republicans even gain the house?sombear said:The quicker we get to grieving from hoping, the better off we are . . . . We've lost the Senate. Time to rebuild.Forest Bueller said:
Super close now in Nevada for Senate. Dems may "find" just enough votes for the W.
Probably a recount either way, going to be less than 1/2 of a percent.
Mothra said:It amazes me that after Tuesday, anyone still thinks Trump should be the next Republican nominee. If 2020 didn't prove he's going to get his ass kicked in a general election, his myriad of legal troubles and unethical behavior since then, as well as the resounding defeat of Trumpism this past Tuesday, should have waken them to this fact.ATL Bear said:It shouldn't be hard to defeat him. The fact it could be is an indictment on the people who continue to prop him up. Please stop.whiterock said:Best way they can do that is to stay out of the race. The more candidates that enter, the harder it will be to defeat Trump. All it will do is divide up the non-Trump vote as the primaries turn winner-take-all. His core base will stand strong.Adriacus Peratuun said:
Every stupid self-serving Trump tweet simply pushes a few more people over to Desantis.
Sununu and Haley can [if they are smart team players] kill a Trump candidacy early. Let him lose 7-8 of the first 10 primaries and he is done.
He's been in the mid-50's all year. I'd be guesstimating on what is his hard floor, but if it's 40% or better he's invulnerable in anything larger than a three horse race. and I don't think it would be much less than 40%.
The folks here who want to move on from Trump are not being unrealistic in their desire, only about how hard it could be to beat him. And they're being even less realistic about how hard it will be to find another candidate capable of inspiring firing up conservative voters to the point of spontaneous boat parades.
Desantis has some stuff going for him, for sure. But the crowd here is letting their hopes get way out over the tips of their analysis
Alas, we are very slow learners.
Some are simply incapable of adjusting long held thought processes .
The fact remains…….Trump is poisonous to the Republican Party .
Which is why Dems actively keep his name in the public spotlight .
House by a hair, yes, Senate no.ATL Bear said:Yep. Warnock/Walker may not even matter. The question now is, did Republicans even gain the house?sombear said:The quicker we get to grieving from hoping, the better off we are . . . . We've lost the Senate. Time to rebuild.Forest Bueller said:
Super close now in Nevada for Senate. Dems may "find" just enough votes for the W.
Probably a recount either way, going to be less than 1/2 of a percent.
ATL Bear said:Yep. Warnock/Walker may not even matter. The question now is, did Republicans even gain the house?sombear said:The quicker we get to grieving from hoping, the better off we are . . . . We've lost the Senate. Time to rebuild.Forest Bueller said:
Super close now in Nevada for Senate. Dems may "find" just enough votes for the W.
Probably a recount either way, going to be less than 1/2 of a percent.
The longer the delays ….the greater the chance Dem 'magic' has occurred.
And the media will demand you accept the magic without question .
Got to 'protect democracy' don't ya know .
You are correct. I am hearing from more and more high up company officials they are glad that someone is showing up that can knock Trump out of the limelight. Sick of his antics. I believe those that think Trump is the power in the GOP are going to be very surprised when they see how quick people jump on an alternative that is an adult and is able to get things done. Got to work in the system, not blow it up. Or, we become a banana republic.Canada2017 said:Mothra said:It amazes me that after Tuesday, anyone still thinks Trump should be the next Republican nominee. If 2020 didn't prove he's going to get his ass kicked in a general election, his myriad of legal troubles and unethical behavior since then, as well as the resounding defeat of Trumpism this past Tuesday, should have waken them to this fact.ATL Bear said:It shouldn't be hard to defeat him. The fact it could be is an indictment on the people who continue to prop him up. Please stop.whiterock said:Best way they can do that is to stay out of the race. The more candidates that enter, the harder it will be to defeat Trump. All it will do is divide up the non-Trump vote as the primaries turn winner-take-all. His core base will stand strong.Adriacus Peratuun said:
Every stupid self-serving Trump tweet simply pushes a few more people over to Desantis.
Sununu and Haley can [if they are smart team players] kill a Trump candidacy early. Let him lose 7-8 of the first 10 primaries and he is done.
He's been in the mid-50's all year. I'd be guesstimating on what is his hard floor, but if it's 40% or better he's invulnerable in anything larger than a three horse race. and I don't think it would be much less than 40%.
The folks here who want to move on from Trump are not being unrealistic in their desire, only about how hard it could be to beat him. And they're being even less realistic about how hard it will be to find another candidate capable of inspiring firing up conservative voters to the point of spontaneous boat parades.
Desantis has some stuff going for him, for sure. But the crowd here is letting their hopes get way out over the tips of their analysis
Alas, we are very slow learners.
Some are simply incapable of adjusting long held thought processes .
The fact remains…….Trump is poisonous to the Republican Party .
Which is why Dems actively keep his name in the public spotlight .
Super crazy thing would be to have 6 million more GOP voters and not get the house or the senateATL Bear said:Yep. Warnock/Walker may not even matter. The question now is, did Republicans even gain the house?sombear said:The quicker we get to grieving from hoping, the better off we are . . . . We've lost the Senate. Time to rebuild.Forest Bueller said:
Super close now in Nevada for Senate. Dems may "find" just enough votes for the W.
Probably a recount either way, going to be less than 1/2 of a percent.
“Mix a little foolishness with your serious plans. It is lovely to be silly at the right moment.”
–Horace
“Insomnia sharpens your math skills because you spend all night calculating how much sleep you’ll get if you’re able to ‘fall asleep right now.’ “
–Horace
“Insomnia sharpens your math skills because you spend all night calculating how much sleep you’ll get if you’re able to ‘fall asleep right now.’ “
Don't you dare question election integrity. You could end up on some list of extremists.Canada2017 said:ATL Bear said:Yep. Warnock/Walker may not even matter. The question now is, did Republicans even gain the house?sombear said:The quicker we get to grieving from hoping, the better off we are . . . . We've lost the Senate. Time to rebuild.Forest Bueller said:
Super close now in Nevada for Senate. Dems may "find" just enough votes for the W.
Probably a recount either way, going to be less than 1/2 of a percent.
The longer the delays ….the greater the chance Dem 'magic' has occurred.
And the media will demand you accept the magic without question .
Got to 'protect democracy' don't ya know .
I feel like I could commit fraud much faster than thisCanada2017 said:ATL Bear said:Yep. Warnock/Walker may not even matter. The question now is, did Republicans even gain the house?sombear said:The quicker we get to grieving from hoping, the better off we are . . . . We've lost the Senate. Time to rebuild.Forest Bueller said:
Super close now in Nevada for Senate. Dems may "find" just enough votes for the W.
Probably a recount either way, going to be less than 1/2 of a percent.
The longer the delays ….the greater the chance Dem 'magic' has occurred.
And the media will demand you accept the magic without question .
Got to 'protect democracy' don't ya know .
I agree. I think Trump's continued obsession with the 2020 election and refusal to actually support any candidates financially weakened him. Tuesday's results really harmed his position. His petulant, unprovoked attacks on DeSantis - the biggest winner Tuesday - really make him look like a moron.RMF5630 said:You are correct. I am hearing from more and more high up company officials they are glad that someone is showing up that can knock Trump out of the limelight. Sick of his antics. I believe those that think Trump is the power in the GOP are going to be very surprised when they see how quick people jump on an alternative that is an adult and is able to get things done. Got to work in the system, not blow it up. Or, we become a banana republic.Canada2017 said:Mothra said:It amazes me that after Tuesday, anyone still thinks Trump should be the next Republican nominee. If 2020 didn't prove he's going to get his ass kicked in a general election, his myriad of legal troubles and unethical behavior since then, as well as the resounding defeat of Trumpism this past Tuesday, should have waken them to this fact.ATL Bear said:It shouldn't be hard to defeat him. The fact it could be is an indictment on the people who continue to prop him up. Please stop.whiterock said:Best way they can do that is to stay out of the race. The more candidates that enter, the harder it will be to defeat Trump. All it will do is divide up the non-Trump vote as the primaries turn winner-take-all. His core base will stand strong.Adriacus Peratuun said:
Every stupid self-serving Trump tweet simply pushes a few more people over to Desantis.
Sununu and Haley can [if they are smart team players] kill a Trump candidacy early. Let him lose 7-8 of the first 10 primaries and he is done.
He's been in the mid-50's all year. I'd be guesstimating on what is his hard floor, but if it's 40% or better he's invulnerable in anything larger than a three horse race. and I don't think it would be much less than 40%.
The folks here who want to move on from Trump are not being unrealistic in their desire, only about how hard it could be to beat him. And they're being even less realistic about how hard it will be to find another candidate capable of inspiring firing up conservative voters to the point of spontaneous boat parades.
Desantis has some stuff going for him, for sure. But the crowd here is letting their hopes get way out over the tips of their analysis
Alas, we are very slow learners.
Some are simply incapable of adjusting long held thought processes .
The fact remains…….Trump is poisonous to the Republican Party .
Which is why Dems actively keep his name in the public spotlight .
Not that anyone doubted it was always just about Trump, but now he's leaving no doubt it always was just about Trump. I think he's done.
Trump now attacking Glenn Youngkin .. pic.twitter.com/eEEPcAMplX
— Jonathan Swan (@jonathanvswan) November 11, 2022
Agree, this is not fraud or harvesting. This is pure and simple incompetence.ron.reagan said:I feel like I could commit fraud much faster than thisCanada2017 said:ATL Bear said:Yep. Warnock/Walker may not even matter. The question now is, did Republicans even gain the house?sombear said:The quicker we get to grieving from hoping, the better off we are . . . . We've lost the Senate. Time to rebuild.Forest Bueller said:
Super close now in Nevada for Senate. Dems may "find" just enough votes for the W.
Probably a recount either way, going to be less than 1/2 of a percent.
The longer the delays ….the greater the chance Dem 'magic' has occurred.
And the media will demand you accept the magic without question .
Got to 'protect democracy' don't ya know .
Is his goal to make Biden appear to be stable?Jack Bauer said:Trump now attacking Glenn Youngkin .. pic.twitter.com/eEEPcAMplX
— Jonathan Swan (@jonathanvswan) November 11, 2022
He is making money on all this. I just found out that he is not helping even his MAGA candidates. Guy needs to go away before he causes more damage.Harrison Bergeron said:I agree. I think Trump's continued obsession with the 2020 election and refusal to actually support any candidates financially weakened him. Tuesday's results really harmed his position. His petulant, unprovoked attacks on DeSantis - the biggest winner Tuesday - really make him look like a moron.RMF5630 said:You are correct. I am hearing from more and more high up company officials they are glad that someone is showing up that can knock Trump out of the limelight. Sick of his antics. I believe those that think Trump is the power in the GOP are going to be very surprised when they see how quick people jump on an alternative that is an adult and is able to get things done. Got to work in the system, not blow it up. Or, we become a banana republic.Canada2017 said:Mothra said:It amazes me that after Tuesday, anyone still thinks Trump should be the next Republican nominee. If 2020 didn't prove he's going to get his ass kicked in a general election, his myriad of legal troubles and unethical behavior since then, as well as the resounding defeat of Trumpism this past Tuesday, should have waken them to this fact.ATL Bear said:It shouldn't be hard to defeat him. The fact it could be is an indictment on the people who continue to prop him up. Please stop.whiterock said:Best way they can do that is to stay out of the race. The more candidates that enter, the harder it will be to defeat Trump. All it will do is divide up the non-Trump vote as the primaries turn winner-take-all. His core base will stand strong.Adriacus Peratuun said:
Every stupid self-serving Trump tweet simply pushes a few more people over to Desantis.
Sununu and Haley can [if they are smart team players] kill a Trump candidacy early. Let him lose 7-8 of the first 10 primaries and he is done.
He's been in the mid-50's all year. I'd be guesstimating on what is his hard floor, but if it's 40% or better he's invulnerable in anything larger than a three horse race. and I don't think it would be much less than 40%.
The folks here who want to move on from Trump are not being unrealistic in their desire, only about how hard it could be to beat him. And they're being even less realistic about how hard it will be to find another candidate capable of inspiring firing up conservative voters to the point of spontaneous boat parades.
Desantis has some stuff going for him, for sure. But the crowd here is letting their hopes get way out over the tips of their analysis
Alas, we are very slow learners.
Some are simply incapable of adjusting long held thought processes .
The fact remains…….Trump is poisonous to the Republican Party .
Which is why Dems actively keep his name in the public spotlight .
Not that anyone doubted it was always just about Trump, but now he's leaving no doubt it always was just about Trump. I think he's done.
The fact that the GOP is having problems winning against the Squad, Biden and the rest of the platform this bunch is running on shows MAGA IS NOT WORKING. Trump has become Hillary! A candidate so unlikable that you can run anyone against him and win.
Watch GOP will jettison him quickly now. I really suspect he will start his own 3rd Party and run under that mantle. Perot #2...
I'm surprised AZ and NV aren't taking a 3 day weekend b/c government...
The old GOP will kick him to the curb. There problem is that if they do, they lose 5-10% of their party-not to the Dems but to apathy or to third-party crazy candidates. That doesn't matter much in 95% of races where, because of gerrymandering or state demographics, the outcome is predetermined. But it matters in Arizona, in Pennsylvannia, in Nevada, in Georgia, in Wisconsin, in Michigan. And in about 50 house races.RMF5630 said:He is making money on all this. I just found out that he is not helping even his MAGA candidates. Guy needs to go away before he causes more damage.Harrison Bergeron said:I agree. I think Trump's continued obsession with the 2020 election and refusal to actually support any candidates financially weakened him. Tuesday's results really harmed his position. His petulant, unprovoked attacks on DeSantis - the biggest winner Tuesday - really make him look like a moron.RMF5630 said:You are correct. I am hearing from more and more high up company officials they are glad that someone is showing up that can knock Trump out of the limelight. Sick of his antics. I believe those that think Trump is the power in the GOP are going to be very surprised when they see how quick people jump on an alternative that is an adult and is able to get things done. Got to work in the system, not blow it up. Or, we become a banana republic.Canada2017 said:Mothra said:It amazes me that after Tuesday, anyone still thinks Trump should be the next Republican nominee. If 2020 didn't prove he's going to get his ass kicked in a general election, his myriad of legal troubles and unethical behavior since then, as well as the resounding defeat of Trumpism this past Tuesday, should have waken them to this fact.ATL Bear said:It shouldn't be hard to defeat him. The fact it could be is an indictment on the people who continue to prop him up. Please stop.whiterock said:Best way they can do that is to stay out of the race. The more candidates that enter, the harder it will be to defeat Trump. All it will do is divide up the non-Trump vote as the primaries turn winner-take-all. His core base will stand strong.Adriacus Peratuun said:
Every stupid self-serving Trump tweet simply pushes a few more people over to Desantis.
Sununu and Haley can [if they are smart team players] kill a Trump candidacy early. Let him lose 7-8 of the first 10 primaries and he is done.
He's been in the mid-50's all year. I'd be guesstimating on what is his hard floor, but if it's 40% or better he's invulnerable in anything larger than a three horse race. and I don't think it would be much less than 40%.
The folks here who want to move on from Trump are not being unrealistic in their desire, only about how hard it could be to beat him. And they're being even less realistic about how hard it will be to find another candidate capable of inspiring firing up conservative voters to the point of spontaneous boat parades.
Desantis has some stuff going for him, for sure. But the crowd here is letting their hopes get way out over the tips of their analysis
Alas, we are very slow learners.
Some are simply incapable of adjusting long held thought processes .
The fact remains…….Trump is poisonous to the Republican Party .
Which is why Dems actively keep his name in the public spotlight .
Not that anyone doubted it was always just about Trump, but now he's leaving no doubt it always was just about Trump. I think he's done.
The fact that the GOP is having problems winning against the Squad, Biden and the rest of the platform this bunch is running on shows MAGA IS NOT WORKING. Trump has become Hillary! A candidate so unlikable that you can run anyone against him and win.
Watch GOP will jettison him quickly now. I really suspect he will start his own 3rd Party and run under that mantle. Perot #2...
The trick is to get rid of Trump but keep his cult of personality followers voting. That is what makes DeSantis intriguing-he seems by the far the most likeley to pull it off.
Yep Trump is done. He's losing supporters with his attacks on DeSantis. No way Trump can win in 2024 because he'll make it all about how he was screwed in 2020. People are growing tired of his antics.Harrison Bergeron said:I agree. I think Trump's continued obsession with the 2020 election and refusal to actually support any candidates financially weakened him. Tuesday's results really harmed his position. His petulant, unprovoked attacks on DeSantis - the biggest winner Tuesday - really make him look like a moron.RMF5630 said:You are correct. I am hearing from more and more high up company officials they are glad that someone is showing up that can knock Trump out of the limelight. Sick of his antics. I believe those that think Trump is the power in the GOP are going to be very surprised when they see how quick people jump on an alternative that is an adult and is able to get things done. Got to work in the system, not blow it up. Or, we become a banana republic.Canada2017 said:Mothra said:It amazes me that after Tuesday, anyone still thinks Trump should be the next Republican nominee. If 2020 didn't prove he's going to get his ass kicked in a general election, his myriad of legal troubles and unethical behavior since then, as well as the resounding defeat of Trumpism this past Tuesday, should have waken them to this fact.ATL Bear said:It shouldn't be hard to defeat him. The fact it could be is an indictment on the people who continue to prop him up. Please stop.whiterock said:Best way they can do that is to stay out of the race. The more candidates that enter, the harder it will be to defeat Trump. All it will do is divide up the non-Trump vote as the primaries turn winner-take-all. His core base will stand strong.Adriacus Peratuun said:
Every stupid self-serving Trump tweet simply pushes a few more people over to Desantis.
Sununu and Haley can [if they are smart team players] kill a Trump candidacy early. Let him lose 7-8 of the first 10 primaries and he is done.
He's been in the mid-50's all year. I'd be guesstimating on what is his hard floor, but if it's 40% or better he's invulnerable in anything larger than a three horse race. and I don't think it would be much less than 40%.
The folks here who want to move on from Trump are not being unrealistic in their desire, only about how hard it could be to beat him. And they're being even less realistic about how hard it will be to find another candidate capable of inspiring firing up conservative voters to the point of spontaneous boat parades.
Desantis has some stuff going for him, for sure. But the crowd here is letting their hopes get way out over the tips of their analysis
Alas, we are very slow learners.
Some are simply incapable of adjusting long held thought processes .
The fact remains…….Trump is poisonous to the Republican Party .
Which is why Dems actively keep his name in the public spotlight .
Not that anyone doubted it was always just about Trump, but now he's leaving no doubt it always was just about Trump. I think he's done.
Now we can move onto DeSantis so the media can paint him as 10x worse than Trump, an ultra mega uber deplorable right wing extremist who will kill democracy, gays, transgenders, senior citizens, women and anyone that's not white. For any women he doesn't kill, he'll lock them up and keep them barefoot and pregnant while he ushers in a new era of fascism in America. He'll be the next Hitler, a despicable human being that eats meat, denies climate change, and deports undocumented people just trying to make a better a life for themselves.
DeSantis will be a hater of women's rights, the poor, the homeless and drug addicts. The Ron will jail doctors who perform abortions and the women who seek them. He'll throw the homeless out of their street tents and refuse to give clean needles to addicts. He'll support the unvaxed murderers that refuse to mask up and he'll the audacity to let businesses stay open and let Americans continue work.
Yes Ron DeSantis will be Trump 2.0, 3.0, 4.0 and Hitler's ghost all rolled into one.
Very true that you can't alienate a good chunk of core Trump supporters, but I don't think there's a huge risk of that happening. Trump deserves credit for bringing minorities and others into the GOP fold, and I don't think they're going anywhere. Trump voters turned out strong even in the races that did not have MAGA candidates. As long as the GOP stands firm on most of Trump's policies, MAGA voters will stay even if Trump loses the fight, which I hope he will . . . by 1st round TKO . . . .
and the contagious Howard Dean meltdown strikes the TrumpsterJack Bauer said:Trump now attacking Glenn Youngkin .. pic.twitter.com/eEEPcAMplX
— Jonathan Swan (@jonathanvswan) November 11, 2022
Pretty rich given that much of the GOP accuses anyone Democratic of grooming children as candidates for perversion. Just for kicks I listentd to about thirty minutes of Waco's talk radio am station yesterday. Apparently all Democrats hate America. I never knew...Rawhide said:Yep Trump is done. He's losing supporters with his attacks on DeSantis. No way Trump can win in 2024 because he'll make it all about how he was screwed in 2020. People are growing tired of his antics.Harrison Bergeron said:I agree. I think Trump's continued obsession with the 2020 election and refusal to actually support any candidates financially weakened him. Tuesday's results really harmed his position. His petulant, unprovoked attacks on DeSantis - the biggest winner Tuesday - really make him look like a moron.RMF5630 said:You are correct. I am hearing from more and more high up company officials they are glad that someone is showing up that can knock Trump out of the limelight. Sick of his antics. I believe those that think Trump is the power in the GOP are going to be very surprised when they see how quick people jump on an alternative that is an adult and is able to get things done. Got to work in the system, not blow it up. Or, we become a banana republic.Canada2017 said:Mothra said:It amazes me that after Tuesday, anyone still thinks Trump should be the next Republican nominee. If 2020 didn't prove he's going to get his ass kicked in a general election, his myriad of legal troubles and unethical behavior since then, as well as the resounding defeat of Trumpism this past Tuesday, should have waken them to this fact.ATL Bear said:It shouldn't be hard to defeat him. The fact it could be is an indictment on the people who continue to prop him up. Please stop.whiterock said:Best way they can do that is to stay out of the race. The more candidates that enter, the harder it will be to defeat Trump. All it will do is divide up the non-Trump vote as the primaries turn winner-take-all. His core base will stand strong.Adriacus Peratuun said:
Every stupid self-serving Trump tweet simply pushes a few more people over to Desantis.
Sununu and Haley can [if they are smart team players] kill a Trump candidacy early. Let him lose 7-8 of the first 10 primaries and he is done.
He's been in the mid-50's all year. I'd be guesstimating on what is his hard floor, but if it's 40% or better he's invulnerable in anything larger than a three horse race. and I don't think it would be much less than 40%.
The folks here who want to move on from Trump are not being unrealistic in their desire, only about how hard it could be to beat him. And they're being even less realistic about how hard it will be to find another candidate capable of inspiring firing up conservative voters to the point of spontaneous boat parades.
Desantis has some stuff going for him, for sure. But the crowd here is letting their hopes get way out over the tips of their analysis
Alas, we are very slow learners.
Some are simply incapable of adjusting long held thought processes .
The fact remains…….Trump is poisonous to the Republican Party .
Which is why Dems actively keep his name in the public spotlight .
Not that anyone doubted it was always just about Trump, but now he's leaving no doubt it always was just about Trump. I think he's done.
Now we can move onto DeSantis so the media can paint him as 10x worse than Trump, an ultra mega uber deplorable right wing extremist who will kill democracy, gays, transgenders, senior citizens, women and anyone that's not white. For any women he doesn't kill, he'll lock them up and keep them barefoot and pregnant while he ushers in a new era of fascism in America. He'll be the next Hitler, a despicable human being that eats meat, denies climate change, and deports undocumented people just trying to make a better a life for themselves.
DeSantis will be a hater of women's rights, the poor, the homeless and drug addicts. The Ron will jail doctors who perform abortions and the women who seek them. He'll throw the homeless out of their street tents and refuse to give clean needles to addicts. He'll support the unvaxed murderers that refuse to mask up and he'll the audacity to let businesses stay open and let Americans continue work.
Yes Ron DeSantis will be Trump 2.0, 3.0, 4.0 and Hitler's ghost all rolled into one.
Better to realize it late than never.Booray said:
Apparently all Democrats hate America. I never knew...
not all, the Dem fringe absolutely do.. the normal people that happen to vote Democrat unfortunately support those fringe policies just like when GOP vote for fringe right.Booray said:Pretty rich given that much of the GOP accuses anyone Democratic of grooming children as candidates for perversion. Just for kicks I listentd to about thirty minutes of Waco's talk radio am station yesterday. Apparently all Democrats hate America. I never knew...Rawhide said:Yep Trump is done. He's losing supporters with his attacks on DeSantis. No way Trump can win in 2024 because he'll make it all about how he was screwed in 2020. People are growing tired of his antics.Harrison Bergeron said:I agree. I think Trump's continued obsession with the 2020 election and refusal to actually support any candidates financially weakened him. Tuesday's results really harmed his position. His petulant, unprovoked attacks on DeSantis - the biggest winner Tuesday - really make him look like a moron.RMF5630 said:You are correct. I am hearing from more and more high up company officials they are glad that someone is showing up that can knock Trump out of the limelight. Sick of his antics. I believe those that think Trump is the power in the GOP are going to be very surprised when they see how quick people jump on an alternative that is an adult and is able to get things done. Got to work in the system, not blow it up. Or, we become a banana republic.Canada2017 said:Mothra said:It amazes me that after Tuesday, anyone still thinks Trump should be the next Republican nominee. If 2020 didn't prove he's going to get his ass kicked in a general election, his myriad of legal troubles and unethical behavior since then, as well as the resounding defeat of Trumpism this past Tuesday, should have waken them to this fact.ATL Bear said:It shouldn't be hard to defeat him. The fact it could be is an indictment on the people who continue to prop him up. Please stop.whiterock said:Best way they can do that is to stay out of the race. The more candidates that enter, the harder it will be to defeat Trump. All it will do is divide up the non-Trump vote as the primaries turn winner-take-all. His core base will stand strong.Adriacus Peratuun said:
Every stupid self-serving Trump tweet simply pushes a few more people over to Desantis.
Sununu and Haley can [if they are smart team players] kill a Trump candidacy early. Let him lose 7-8 of the first 10 primaries and he is done.
He's been in the mid-50's all year. I'd be guesstimating on what is his hard floor, but if it's 40% or better he's invulnerable in anything larger than a three horse race. and I don't think it would be much less than 40%.
The folks here who want to move on from Trump are not being unrealistic in their desire, only about how hard it could be to beat him. And they're being even less realistic about how hard it will be to find another candidate capable of inspiring firing up conservative voters to the point of spontaneous boat parades.
Desantis has some stuff going for him, for sure. But the crowd here is letting their hopes get way out over the tips of their analysis
Alas, we are very slow learners.
Some are simply incapable of adjusting long held thought processes .
The fact remains…….Trump is poisonous to the Republican Party .
Which is why Dems actively keep his name in the public spotlight .
Not that anyone doubted it was always just about Trump, but now he's leaving no doubt it always was just about Trump. I think he's done.
Now we can move onto DeSantis so the media can paint him as 10x worse than Trump, an ultra mega uber deplorable right wing extremist who will kill democracy, gays, transgenders, senior citizens, women and anyone that's not white. For any women he doesn't kill, he'll lock them up and keep them barefoot and pregnant while he ushers in a new era of fascism in America. He'll be the next Hitler, a despicable human being that eats meat, denies climate change, and deports undocumented people just trying to make a better a life for themselves.
DeSantis will be a hater of women's rights, the poor, the homeless and drug addicts. The Ron will jail doctors who perform abortions and the women who seek them. He'll throw the homeless out of their street tents and refuse to give clean needles to addicts. He'll support the unvaxed murderers that refuse to mask up and he'll the audacity to let businesses stay open and let Americans continue work.
Yes Ron DeSantis will be Trump 2.0, 3.0, 4.0 and Hitler's ghost all rolled into one.
The normal 80% are stuck with the uncompromising fringes.
“Mix a little foolishness with your serious plans. It is lovely to be silly at the right moment.”
–Horace
“Insomnia sharpens your math skills because you spend all night calculating how much sleep you’ll get if you’re able to ‘fall asleep right now.’ “
–Horace
“Insomnia sharpens your math skills because you spend all night calculating how much sleep you’ll get if you’re able to ‘fall asleep right now.’ “
TDS!Osodecentx said:Yet voters looked at the Trump recruited candidates and said "no". Why?whiterock said:ATL Bear said:You couldn't be more wrong. The Kemp/Walker break is a classic showing of how independents will actually vote multi party, and can be wooed to candidates. It also shows that even semi-partisans will split tickets. Look at the ratio breaks in districts of Republican pick ups in the House. Run better candidates. Don't drag them down with political baggage like Trump.whiterock said:The results from last night directly refute that conclusion.JXL said:whiterock said:
EX: Exit polling is clear that Threat To Democracy and Abortion were huge issues with thoe who voted.
Are those key issues with voters at large? Was all the polling about inflation and economy wrong?
no.
Remember what I said many times: a pollster has to poll the people who actually vote.
A majority of voters think inflation and the economy ARE the big issues.
but those voters didn't show up and vote.
A smaller number of voters think abortion and threats to democracy are the big issues.
but those voters are who showed up and voted.
Every election is a base election.
If you do not turn out your own base, the independents don't matter a damned bit.
You can't win elections with just your base. Nominating Trump might fire up his base of support, but he would be unlikely to pull enough support from outside of his base to win.
SOME elections are choice elections, where wooing independents is the key.
SOME elections are base elections, where there isn't much middle ground and victory lies in turning out your base.
As long as we remain an evenly divided electorate, building a strategy of chasing 3% of the voting public least likely to vote is the road to oblivion. If you cannot fire up your own base to come boiling out to vote, you are not going to inspire independents to come boiling out to vote either.
Democrats campaigned solely within their base. They spoke primarily to the J6 faithful and the abortion on demand faithful....and they got a bigger turnout of their base than Republicans did.
Moderate Republicans are fickle, too. Oso and Sam will throw their vote away 3rd party on principle then blame others when it lets Dems win. But if we attend to their concerns, we lose more votes in our own base than we gain in the middle. That's a dynamic proven over and over again. Oz is an example - the kind of moderate that's supposed to win purple states. Only he didn't. You win purple states like Perry and DeSantis did - by defeating liberal ideas and turning the date RED.
And before we cite "Trump baggage" as responsible for last night, it must be noted that the single best outcome of the night came from a candidate plucked from obscurity by a Trump endorsement, a candidate who by any measure was the most Trump-esque of them all. He's not the "anti-Trump" that your argument implicitly presumes. He's Trump 2.0, an apparently more formidable variant of the original strain.
And while we're on GA, they have almost as bad a "arrogant moderate" dynamic as AZ. It's not like Perdue or Loeffler were great big throbbing MAGA-maniacs. Quite a bit of spin going on to blame deficiencies in the GA GOP on Trump. I spent a number of hours around a campfire with a GA businessman donor in aftermath off the 2020 GA Senate debacle. Wonderful thoughtful fellow who like many of the type think the secret to success is stifling the GOP base. That is not what DeDantis did. Quite the opposite - poking Disney in the eye, reliving woke prosecutors of their duties, etc…..
The argument for Desantis is that he's simply better at Trumpism than Trump.
It's a hard argument to refute.
There's a lot of that going around lately.whiterock said:But the crowd here is letting their hopes get way out over the tips of their analysisAdriacus Peratuun said:
Every stupid self-serving Trump tweet simply pushes a few more people over to Desantis.
Sununu and Haley can [if they are smart team players] kill a Trump candidacy early. Let him lose 7-8 of the first 10 primaries and he is done.