OFFICIAL ELECTION THREAD, 11-8-22

42,002 Views | 1063 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by whiterock
Redbrickbear
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RMF5630 said:

Canada2017 said:

Doc Holliday said:

RMF5630 said:

Doc Holliday said:

RMF5630 said:

Doc Holliday said:

Things change depending on who wins.




Geez, stop.with the fraud ***** GOP lost, deal with it. Need better candidates and message that attracts younger voters and Hispanics to GOP. This fraud crap just alienates voters.

If there is proof investigate, prosecute, convict and talk about after you get conviction. Or, it'd more Jan 6th BS.
I posted this before the outcome because liberal media was saying fraud was possible when they've been saying it's impossible for the past two years.
Yeah, but it is time to look in the mirror. The fact that this election was close enough for fraud to play a role with Biden in the White House should be a red flag. We are living in the 70's and instead of a wave bringing Reagan in to right the ship, the electorate voted to maintain the status quo with these clowns at the wheel rather than give Trump and his crowd another shot. What does that tell you???

Some on here, they are doubling down into the MAGA/Brietbert line that it is fraud, media-bias and that the American people really do want Trump and his band to save the day. But, if that is the case, why are they attacking winning GOP members? They are actively trying to intimidate, bad-mouth and humiliate GOP winners that are on their side??? That is the actions of someone that is going to save the Party?

Trump and his band are the problem, just as much as Pelosi and the Squad. They are the same on extreme ends of the political spectrum, but at that point a tyrant is a tyrant. Lenin and Hitler didn't operate too far apart, even though they believed 100% different politics.
…do you know that I predicted GOP would do terrible in midterms and that I'm ready to get past Trump?
Trump is the Dem's best asset .

Amazing how many conservatives can't accept this even now.
I am amazed at how many are defending his position in the GOP after last election and his antics this week. He is poison.


You might want to consider the idea that more than Trump-MAGA being electoral poison… the establishment corporate GOP is electoral poison.

A lot of people want to get past Trumpism and get back to good ole days of "invade the world-invite the world-look out for Wall St." George W. Bush type Republicanism.

Problem is there is no path to national power that way.

Everyone hates it.

Even the dire hard Red State voters that would stick with a Bush-Paul Ryan-Cheney-Romney type GOP would vote red out of loyalty but hate the actual party positions and leadership. And it would almost never take the White House again.


Canada2017
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Does anyone really believe it takes THIS long to count CONGRESSIONAL districts ?

Oh but everything is completely above board right ?

People have just given up .

Meanwhile feds will now raise interest rates still again .
Strategic Reserve inputs will dry up …. diesel costs will continue to rise .



MILLIONS of illegals are still entering the country . This is a migration like no where else in the entire world .

No end in sight ……and people seriously believe these millions won't have an impact ?


But hey the people made it clear they want the 'right' to kill babies ….that's something noteworthy. It's not human until the head passes through the birth canal….go figure .

Soon it will be legal to kill babies even after delivery.

We are THAT sick .




Fun times.





FLBear5630
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Redbrickbear said:

RMF5630 said:

Canada2017 said:

Doc Holliday said:

RMF5630 said:

Doc Holliday said:

RMF5630 said:

Doc Holliday said:

Things change depending on who wins.




Geez, stop.with the fraud ***** GOP lost, deal with it. Need better candidates and message that attracts younger voters and Hispanics to GOP. This fraud crap just alienates voters.

If there is proof investigate, prosecute, convict and talk about after you get conviction. Or, it'd more Jan 6th BS.
I posted this before the outcome because liberal media was saying fraud was possible when they've been saying it's impossible for the past two years.
Yeah, but it is time to look in the mirror. The fact that this election was close enough for fraud to play a role with Biden in the White House should be a red flag. We are living in the 70's and instead of a wave bringing Reagan in to right the ship, the electorate voted to maintain the status quo with these clowns at the wheel rather than give Trump and his crowd another shot. What does that tell you???

Some on here, they are doubling down into the MAGA/Brietbert line that it is fraud, media-bias and that the American people really do want Trump and his band to save the day. But, if that is the case, why are they attacking winning GOP members? They are actively trying to intimidate, bad-mouth and humiliate GOP winners that are on their side??? That is the actions of someone that is going to save the Party?

Trump and his band are the problem, just as much as Pelosi and the Squad. They are the same on extreme ends of the political spectrum, but at that point a tyrant is a tyrant. Lenin and Hitler didn't operate too far apart, even though they believed 100% different politics.
…do you know that I predicted GOP would do terrible in midterms and that I'm ready to get past Trump?
Trump is the Dem's best asset .

Amazing how many conservatives can't accept this even now.
I am amazed at how many are defending his position in the GOP after last election and his antics this week. He is poison.


You might want to consider the idea that more than Trump-MAGA being electoral poison… the establishment corporate GOP is electoral poison.

A lot of people want to get past Trumpism and get back to good ole days of "invade the world-invite the world-look out for Wall St." George W. Bush type Republicanism.

Problem is there is no path to national power that way.

Everyone hates it.

Even the dire hard Red State voters that would stick with a Bush-Paul Ryan-Cheney-Romney type GOP would vote red out of loyalty but hate the actual party positions and leadership. And it would almost never take the White House again.



So, why do we have to like Romney or McCain if we don't like Trump and his MAGA crowd? You are making it an either/or. I disagree with that.

DeSantis's Florida is not McCain/Romney-ish and he is not MAGA like Trump, Greene, Gaetz, Lake and Briebert. He has done a damn good job, pushed back on the stupid stuff, embraced the conservative and has increased business. His one flaw, he may not be "warm" enough, he can come across mean.
sombear
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whiterock said:

sombear said:

Passing along some fascinating vote info from GOP. Much of this is public by now:

* Record % of voters made up their mind the last few days.
* Record ticket-splitting - e.g., vote for GOP Gov but Dem Senate, hurting GOP in GA, NV, AZ, OH, NH
* Independents broke hard and late for Dems - almost never happens in midterm with unpopular Pres. Even pronounced in key races.
* GOP met turnout metrics.
* GOP will win popular vote by 4% with little or nothing to show for it.
* Unusually high % of voters voted against their top issue - e.g., Fetterman won majority of voters who cited crime as their top issue; Warnock leading among those saying inflation top issue.
* Suburbs hurt the GOP overall, but strong for GOP in FL, NY, TX, and a few other states.
* As I posted before the election, GOP Senate candidate quality was around -2.5%, meaning based on metrics, the entire slate of GOP candidates was 2.5% behind an average slate. I did not get breakdowns, but that likely means some of our worst GOP Senate candidates were easily -5% to -7%, which is historically bad.
* GOP House candidates were an average +2 quality. Strong slate.
* In House, outside of FL, NY, and CA (likely), GOP did good enough to make tough races close but still lose. In other words, GOP made races close where they were substantial underdogs, but could not get over the edge in races where they were close underdogs. If there were any sort of wave (which is typical with an unpopular Pres) GOP would have got the extra ~1% it needed in tens of races.
* GOP continued to improve with Hispanics, African Americans, and Asians.
* Weak Gov/Senate candidates hurt GOP House races in PA, MI, MD, NH. Zeldin, even though he lost, was huge for GOP House in NY.
* Trump disapproval among all voters was ~60%. Biden disapproval was ~55%. Trump also worse on "strong disapproval."
* Record high approval for Pelosi - due to sympathy over attack on husband. One GOP insider believes this incident had more impact than any other single recent issue, which I find hard to believe.
* About the same % of voters made their decision based on Biden (for or against) and Trump (for or against). This is unprecedented. Midterm has always been a verdict on a sitting Pres, with leading opposition figure barely on radar.


Worth noting that Romney met his turnout metrics, too. They were just the wrong metrics.

The electorate is not a static thing. A not-terribly-political single divorced woman with kids can be appealed to as a single mom, or as an unmarried career woman, or as an anti abortion voter, or as a "am I safe walking to work" voter. If Republicans pick the second best of those four things to appeal to her, you leave an opening for Democrats to appeal to the first. And that's pretty much what happened. Democrats had a message which trumped ours.

McCarthy and McConnell should lose their leadership jobs over this.
They won't.
But they should.
Key word . . . .
Porteroso
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Canada2017 said:

Days after voting ….and still 19 congressional elections not fully 'counted ' .

And no one seems to care .

Banana Republic

I think a lot of people care. Letting mail in ballots come in right up to the election is a mistake... I wonder if we should force candidates to stop campaigning on the final day of early voting. They keep saying dumb stuff right through the election, and it gives legitimate reason to delay voting until as late as possible. Pipe dream of course.
sombear
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whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

Oldbear83 said:

Doc Holliday said:

We need to dump Trump, but if we go back to Romney and Paul Ryan types, I'm not supporting the party at all.
Agreed.

Spine is a must-have.
Spine is one thing. Brown Shirt intimidation is another.

You can't govern to spite 50% of the populati0n. You can't intimidate people from running for office with threats. This is not the 2016 Trump and the MAGA hat. For whatever reason, no matter who is right or wrong, MAGA has morphed into a vindictive, threatening group that has no tolerance for anyone that does not think like them. That is NOT a governing party. That is a danger.
Democrats do that. Literally. Calling half the public a threat to democracy. Using the full range of federal and state level agencies to investigate and prosecute the standard bearer of the opposing party for 6 full years (so far batting .0000)

You need to listen to less MSNBC.




And the result? Nation is In such good shape. Between Progressives and MAGAs nothing getting done. GOP just had a loser midterm, chance Dems are keeping both Sen and Houe. MAGA only, Trump can save the Nation **** has just about set us up for checkmate. Trump and his cronies energizes Dems. They want him front and center. Independents broke for Dems, not Trump.

By the way, quit with the insult ***** You spout ho mature you are and then go MSNBC insult ***** Grow up.
Just noting the convergence of your messaging here and the messaging on the TV. The themes are congruent. You're mad we lost and you're just going to blame not just Trump, but the entire MAGA movement. That is exactly what Liz Cheney wants you to do. She did make quite a public spectacle promising to defeat these "weak" GOP candidates rather than helping them across the finish line. Why on earth aren't you furious with her?

There's all kinds of cause/effect problems with your reasoning. Is the nation in bad shape because of the Biden agenda, or because Republicans won't compromise with it? Sure, it always sounds & feels good to be an adult and"get things done," but what things? Compromise for the sake of compromise? No matter how harmful the proposals from the other side are? Do they ever do that with us? I would propose that the nation is in difficulty because of bad Democrat policies across the board, and that a return to the policies of prior Republican Administrations is the answer. It is a fools errand to think we win elections by going along with the very policies that have delivered historically bad econometric data and a very dissatisified electorate.

And, again, what we see is that Dems are going to demonize the GOP in order to turn out the Dem base no matter who is on the ticket. We cannot hide. If we disagree with them, we will be called a threat to democracy. We have to go out and smack them back. We did not do that. We let the party who turned the FBI/DOJ loose on PTA moms....the party who initiated investigations of Elon Musk solely because he bought a messaging platform that has been loyal to the left.....the party of wokeness and cancel culture and cashless bail....etc..... We let those intolerant bigots call us a threat to democracy. That has got to stop. We've got to get on message and define Democrats and their agenda as intolerant, bigoted, normophobic, and down right destructive to a free and prosperous society. That is kinda the Desantis message, you know.

There is much to criticize about Trump.
But you're criticizing of MAGA is Liz Cheney-level bull*****
It will not deliver election victory.
It will only cause an enormous percentage of your voters to give you the middle finger next election and stay home.
Politics is addition, not division.
You are not getting it. The MAGA of Reagan has been hijacked by Greene, Gaetz, Lake, and Breibert. People are not seeing the MAGA you are describing. They are as unlikeable as the Squad and use the same tactics. These people are out threatening candidates. Trumps is not only threatening, he is actively working to derail some of the GOP's most successful winners. You keep brushing over these facts. These Brownshirt tactics are not endearing MAGA to the electorate. What's next? Rallies against DeSantis by MAGA Republicans?

Maybe the messaging is converging because the election data and the actions of these idiots is showing that Independents and Moderates are not falling in line with these candidates. Actually, they are running away from Trump in the States that matter. The swing States ARE NOT falling in line for Trump. If the GOP continues to follow the MAGA crowds lead, the GOP is pretty much done.

As for Cheney, she is on a personal vendetta and is no better than Trump. She is willing to burn the whole thing down to get Trump. That is not in the best interest of the Nation. Both Cheney and Trump need to go away...
MSNBC will tell you that MTG is a threat to democracy who has hijacked the GOP. I see in MTG a person who is quite a bit closer to the average American, closer to the political middle than anyone in the Squad. Her greatest offense is that she rabble rouses in a way that Republicans are not supposed to do. Pfft. I think it's humorous, particularly to see how uptight are her critics. Here's what you should tell people who think MTG is the problem - "Lighten up, Francis."

MTG is not the problem here.
Democrats are the problem here.

The problem isn't that the Republicans are talking too far right.
The problem is that Democrats have actually taken the country too far left.

Tell me one time that Democrats have ever been "the problem."
Tell me one time that Democrat centriests have ever turned on their crazies they way you're turning on people who aren't that crazy?

Tell me what it is that makes Ron DeSantis the annointed one, and Kari Lake radioactive? I see in Kari Lake a more telegenic Ron DeSantis, but in other respects pretty much two peas in a pod. Yeah, RDS has already been elected and had a successful term and re-election. But his first one was a squeaker. He was, you know, a founding member of the Freedom Caucus, a right-wing nut, at the time he got elected. And then he showed what governance looks like under right-wing nuts (pretty damned good). If she squeaks by, and has a successful first year in office, she will be one of the brightest lights in the party.

Remember Reagan's 11th Commandment.
We win by demonizing Democrats, not Republicans.
Lake lost a race GOP should have won. Desantis won the most important state for the GOP by a record margin.
Redbrickbear
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RMF5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:

RMF5630 said:

Canada2017 said:

Doc Holliday said:

RMF5630 said:

Doc Holliday said:

RMF5630 said:

Doc Holliday said:

Things change depending on who wins.




Geez, stop.with the fraud ***** GOP lost, deal with it. Need better candidates and message that attracts younger voters and Hispanics to GOP. This fraud crap just alienates voters.

If there is proof investigate, prosecute, convict and talk about after you get conviction. Or, it'd more Jan 6th BS.
I posted this before the outcome because liberal media was saying fraud was possible when they've been saying it's impossible for the past two years.
Yeah, but it is time to look in the mirror. The fact that this election was close enough for fraud to play a role with Biden in the White House should be a red flag. We are living in the 70's and instead of a wave bringing Reagan in to right the ship, the electorate voted to maintain the status quo with these clowns at the wheel rather than give Trump and his crowd another shot. What does that tell you???

Some on here, they are doubling down into the MAGA/Brietbert line that it is fraud, media-bias and that the American people really do want Trump and his band to save the day. But, if that is the case, why are they attacking winning GOP members? They are actively trying to intimidate, bad-mouth and humiliate GOP winners that are on their side??? That is the actions of someone that is going to save the Party?

Trump and his band are the problem, just as much as Pelosi and the Squad. They are the same on extreme ends of the political spectrum, but at that point a tyrant is a tyrant. Lenin and Hitler didn't operate too far apart, even though they believed 100% different politics.
…do you know that I predicted GOP would do terrible in midterms and that I'm ready to get past Trump?
Trump is the Dem's best asset .

Amazing how many conservatives can't accept this even now.
I am amazed at how many are defending his position in the GOP after last election and his antics this week. He is poison.


You might want to consider the idea that more than Trump-MAGA being electoral poison… the establishment corporate GOP is electoral poison.

A lot of people want to get past Trumpism and get back to good ole days of "invade the world-invite the world-look out for Wall St." George W. Bush type Republicanism.

Problem is there is no path to national power that way.

Everyone hates it.

Even the dire hard Red State voters that would stick with a Bush-Paul Ryan-Cheney-Romney type GOP would vote red out of loyalty but hate the actual party positions and leadership. And it would almost never take the White House again.



So, why do we have to like Romney or McCain if we don't like Trump and his MAGA crowd? You are making it an either/or. I disagree with that.

DeSantis's Florida is not McCain/Romney-ish and he is not MAGA like Trump, Greene, Gaetz, Lake and Briebert. He has done a damn good job, pushed back on the stupid stuff, embraced the conservative and has increased business. His one flaw, he may not be "warm" enough, he can come across mean.


Is there any conservative-ish person on Sicem365 who is attacking DeSantis? I have heard nothing but praise for him.

I think a lot of people are naturally worried that Establishment Republicans (and all the worst sort of Never Trump types) seem very very eager to "get past Trump".

I understand that view....I mean personally I am ready to get past Trump the man and the drama show.

But every time I want to go 100% in on DeSantis the Lincoln Project Republicans come out with full throated support and have to reevaluate my position.

I will never support a Bush-Cheney centric Republican party again...or a GOP that plays footsie under the bedsheets with the Lincoln project types.
FLBear5630
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sombear said:

whiterock said:

sombear said:

Passing along some fascinating vote info from GOP. Much of this is public by now:

* Record % of voters made up their mind the last few days.
* Record ticket-splitting - e.g., vote for GOP Gov but Dem Senate, hurting GOP in GA, NV, AZ, OH, NH
* Independents broke hard and late for Dems - almost never happens in midterm with unpopular Pres. Even pronounced in key races.
* GOP met turnout metrics.
* GOP will win popular vote by 4% with little or nothing to show for it.
* Unusually high % of voters voted against their top issue - e.g., Fetterman won majority of voters who cited crime as their top issue; Warnock leading among those saying inflation top issue.
* Suburbs hurt the GOP overall, but strong for GOP in FL, NY, TX, and a few other states.
* As I posted before the election, GOP Senate candidate quality was around -2.5%, meaning based on metrics, the entire slate of GOP candidates was 2.5% behind an average slate. I did not get breakdowns, but that likely means some of our worst GOP Senate candidates were easily -5% to -7%, which is historically bad.
* GOP House candidates were an average +2 quality. Strong slate.
* In House, outside of FL, NY, and CA (likely), GOP did good enough to make tough races close but still lose. In other words, GOP made races close where they were substantial underdogs, but could not get over the edge in races where they were close underdogs. If there were any sort of wave (which is typical with an unpopular Pres) GOP would have got the extra ~1% it needed in tens of races.
* GOP continued to improve with Hispanics, African Americans, and Asians.
* Weak Gov/Senate candidates hurt GOP House races in PA, MI, MD, NH. Zeldin, even though he lost, was huge for GOP House in NY.
* Trump disapproval among all voters was ~60%. Biden disapproval was ~55%. Trump also worse on "strong disapproval."
* Record high approval for Pelosi - due to sympathy over attack on husband. One GOP insider believes this incident had more impact than any other single recent issue, which I find hard to believe.
* About the same % of voters made their decision based on Biden (for or against) and Trump (for or against). This is unprecedented. Midterm has always been a verdict on a sitting Pres, with leading opposition figure barely on radar.


Worth noting that Romney met his turnout metrics, too. They were just the wrong metrics.

The electorate is not a static thing. A not-terribly-political single divorced woman with kids can be appealed to as a single mom, or as an unmarried career woman, or as an anti abortion voter, or as a "am I safe walking to work" voter. If Republicans pick the second best of those four things to appeal to her, you leave an opening for Democrats to appeal to the first. And that's pretty much what happened. Democrats had a message which trumped ours.

McCarthy and McConnell should lose their leadership jobs over this.
They won't.
But they should.
Key word . . . .
THE MESSAGE WAS THAT THE GOP IS A THREAT TO DEMOCRACY!!! Why would they say that? Wonder where there is anything that might indicate that?
sombear
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Redbrickbear said:

RMF5630 said:

Canada2017 said:

Doc Holliday said:

RMF5630 said:

Doc Holliday said:

RMF5630 said:

Doc Holliday said:

Things change depending on who wins.




Geez, stop.with the fraud ***** GOP lost, deal with it. Need better candidates and message that attracts younger voters and Hispanics to GOP. This fraud crap just alienates voters.

If there is proof investigate, prosecute, convict and talk about after you get conviction. Or, it'd more Jan 6th BS.
I posted this before the outcome because liberal media was saying fraud was possible when they've been saying it's impossible for the past two years.
Yeah, but it is time to look in the mirror. The fact that this election was close enough for fraud to play a role with Biden in the White House should be a red flag. We are living in the 70's and instead of a wave bringing Reagan in to right the ship, the electorate voted to maintain the status quo with these clowns at the wheel rather than give Trump and his crowd another shot. What does that tell you???

Some on here, they are doubling down into the MAGA/Brietbert line that it is fraud, media-bias and that the American people really do want Trump and his band to save the day. But, if that is the case, why are they attacking winning GOP members? They are actively trying to intimidate, bad-mouth and humiliate GOP winners that are on their side??? That is the actions of someone that is going to save the Party?

Trump and his band are the problem, just as much as Pelosi and the Squad. They are the same on extreme ends of the political spectrum, but at that point a tyrant is a tyrant. Lenin and Hitler didn't operate too far apart, even though they believed 100% different politics.
…do you know that I predicted GOP would do terrible in midterms and that I'm ready to get past Trump?
Trump is the Dem's best asset .

Amazing how many conservatives can't accept this even now.
I am amazed at how many are defending his position in the GOP after last election and his antics this week. He is poison.


You might want to consider the idea that more than Trump-MAGA being electoral poison… the establishment corporate GOP is electoral poison.

A lot of people want to get past Trumpism and get back to good ole days of "invade the world-invite the world-look out for Wall St." George W. Bush type Republicanism.

Problem is there is no path to national power that way.

Everyone hates it.

Even the dire hard Red State voters that would stick with a Bush-Paul Ryan-Cheney-Romney type GOP would vote red out of loyalty but hate the actual party positions and leadership. And it would almost never take the White House again.



Strawman. Virtually nobody is screaming for a return to the old moderate establishment. We just want strong conservatives who also happen to be competent and just decent human beings.
sombear
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So is it fraud that the GOP is crushing it in the AZ House races?
Redbrickbear
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sombear said:

Redbrickbear said:

RMF5630 said:

Canada2017 said:

Doc Holliday said:

RMF5630 said:

Doc Holliday said:

RMF5630 said:

Doc Holliday said:

Things change depending on who wins.




Geez, stop.with the fraud ***** GOP lost, deal with it. Need better candidates and message that attracts younger voters and Hispanics to GOP. This fraud crap just alienates voters.

If there is proof investigate, prosecute, convict and talk about after you get conviction. Or, it'd more Jan 6th BS.
I posted this before the outcome because liberal media was saying fraud was possible when they've been saying it's impossible for the past two years.
Yeah, but it is time to look in the mirror. The fact that this election was close enough for fraud to play a role with Biden in the White House should be a red flag. We are living in the 70's and instead of a wave bringing Reagan in to right the ship, the electorate voted to maintain the status quo with these clowns at the wheel rather than give Trump and his crowd another shot. What does that tell you???

Some on here, they are doubling down into the MAGA/Brietbert line that it is fraud, media-bias and that the American people really do want Trump and his band to save the day. But, if that is the case, why are they attacking winning GOP members? They are actively trying to intimidate, bad-mouth and humiliate GOP winners that are on their side??? That is the actions of someone that is going to save the Party?

Trump and his band are the problem, just as much as Pelosi and the Squad. They are the same on extreme ends of the political spectrum, but at that point a tyrant is a tyrant. Lenin and Hitler didn't operate too far apart, even though they believed 100% different politics.
…do you know that I predicted GOP would do terrible in midterms and that I'm ready to get past Trump?
Trump is the Dem's best asset .

Amazing how many conservatives can't accept this even now.
I am amazed at how many are defending his position in the GOP after last election and his antics this week. He is poison.


You might want to consider the idea that more than Trump-MAGA being electoral poison… the establishment corporate GOP is electoral poison.

A lot of people want to get past Trumpism and get back to good ole days of "invade the world-invite the world-look out for Wall St." George W. Bush type Republicanism.

Problem is there is no path to national power that way.

Everyone hates it.

Even the dire hard Red State voters that would stick with a Bush-Paul Ryan-Cheney-Romney type GOP would vote red out of loyalty but hate the actual party positions and leadership. And it would almost never take the White House again.



Strawman. Virtually nobody is screaming for a return to the old moderate establishment. We just want strong conservatives who also happen to be competent and just decent human beings.

Then you are not paying attention to the Defense complex, Chamber of Commerce, Wall St. and all the "reasonable Republican" white collar types.

I still hear staunch defenses of people like George W. Bush....until such time as we are fundamentally able to come together an acknowledge him as a war criminal responsible for the deaths of a million people and a terrible president who wanted to pass a 10 million person amnesty..I will not trust that there is not a strong element in the party leadership wanting a return to that kind of ideology.

https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna3887721
[Bush outlined a plan Wednesday that could lead to legal status for millions of illegal immigrants]
sombear
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Lincoln Project despises Desantis and ran attack ads against him.
Canada2017
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sombear said:

So is it fraud that the GOP is crushing it in the AZ House races?


Really think it takes a week to count congressional districts ?

Good grief .
sombear
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Trump offered amnesty. In fact, Trump offered virtually the identical plan that Jeb advocated (and Trump criticized) in the primary - amnesty in exchange for wall and other restrictions. About 80% of Americans support that.
william
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'I consider it completely unimportant who in the party will vote, or how; but what is extraordinarily important is this; who will count the votes, and how.' - Stalin

- KKM

{ sipping coffee }
Dale?
Jack Bauer
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Kari Lake AZ GOV Race

26,011 votes behind
160,959 votes remain (appx)

58% - margin to take over the lead

sombear
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whiterock said:

sombear said:

Passing along some fascinating vote info from GOP. Much of this is public by now:

* Record % of voters made up their mind the last few days.
* Record ticket-splitting - e.g., vote for GOP Gov but Dem Senate, hurting GOP in GA, NV, AZ, OH, NH
* Independents broke hard and late for Dems - almost never happens in midterm with unpopular Pres. Even pronounced in key races.
* GOP met turnout metrics.
* GOP will win popular vote by 4% with little or nothing to show for it.
* Unusually high % of voters voted against their top issue - e.g., Fetterman won majority of voters who cited crime as their top issue; Warnock leading among those saying inflation top issue.
* Suburbs hurt the GOP overall, but strong for GOP in FL, NY, TX, and a few other states.
* As I posted before the election, GOP Senate candidate quality was around -2.5%, meaning based on metrics, the entire slate of GOP candidates was 2.5% behind an average slate. I did not get breakdowns, but that likely means some of our worst GOP Senate candidates were easily -5% to -7%, which is historically bad.
* GOP House candidates were an average +2 quality. Strong slate.
* In House, outside of FL, NY, and CA (likely), GOP did good enough to make tough races close but still lose. In other words, GOP made races close where they were substantial underdogs, but could not get over the edge in races where they were close underdogs. If there were any sort of wave (which is typical with an unpopular Pres) GOP would have got the extra ~1% it needed in tens of races.
* GOP continued to improve with Hispanics, African Americans, and Asians.
* Weak Gov/Senate candidates hurt GOP House races in PA, MI, MD, NH. Zeldin, even though he lost, was huge for GOP House in NY.
* Trump disapproval among all voters was ~60%. Biden disapproval was ~55%. Trump also worse on "strong disapproval."
* Record high approval for Pelosi - due to sympathy over attack on husband. One GOP insider believes this incident had more impact than any other single recent issue, which I find hard to believe.
* About the same % of voters made their decision based on Biden (for or against) and Trump (for or against). This is unprecedented. Midterm has always been a verdict on a sitting Pres, with leading opposition figure barely on radar.


Worth noting that Romney met his turnout metrics, too. They were just the wrong metrics.

The electorate is not a static thing. A not-terribly-political single divorced woman with kids can be appealed to as a single mom, or as an unmarried career woman, or as an anti abortion voter, or as a "am I safe walking to work" voter. If Republicans pick the second best of those four things to appeal to her, you leave an opening for Democrats to appeal to the first. And that's pretty much what happened. Democrats had a message which trumped ours.

McCarthy and McConnell should lose their leadership jobs over this.
They won't.
But they should.
What?!?! 2020 GOP turnout was abysmal. Romney did not come close to meeting any of his metrics. Despite population increases, GOP turnout was even down in real numbers from 2008 and 2004. GOP increased turnout in exactly one battleground state, Iowa. Romney's run to the middle backfired badly.
Osodecentx
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https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3733721-hobbs-lead-over-lake-narrows-with-93-percent-of-votes-counted/
Hobbs lead over Lake narrows with 93 percent of votes counted
Democrat Katie Hobbs' lead over Republican Kari Lake in Arizona's gubernatorial race has narrowed to just 1 percentage point with 93 percent of the state's vote tallied.
The two candidates are now separated by just 26,000 votes, five days after last week's election. Hobbs' lead stood at about 36,000 votes earlier in the day.
Wrecks Quan Dough
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The race that burns is Alaska's House seat. The GOP ran two people and they will both lose. If one or the other had dropped out, then that would be a GOP seat. Unbelievable.
Jack Bauer
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He Hate Me said:

The race that burns is Alaska's House seat. The GOP ran two people and they will both lose. If one or the other had dropped out, then that would be a GOP seat. Unbelievable.
won't there be a runoff?
Wrecks Quan Dough
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Jack Bauer said:

He Hate Me said:

The race that burns is Alaska's House seat. The GOP ran two people and they will both lose. If one or the other had dropped out, then that would be a GOP seat. Unbelievable.
won't there be a runoff?
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/alaska-senate-race-headed-ranked-choice-runoff-rcna54939

It is an instant runoff by which the last place candidate's votes are redistributed. Seems strange, but anyway, here is your choice:

Redbrickbear
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ATL Bear
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The greatest con Trump has pulled is getting people to believe a North Eastern Clinton Democrat, blue blood Elitist, quintessential corporatist raider is an Everyman conservative.

We forget the Trump Afghan escalation before the withdrawal decision. The killing of actual Russians in Syria. Killing the Iranian leader of al Quds. He was all in on Israel including the embassy move. Etc, etc. I'm not even arguing against some of these actions, but I think the biggest difference between neocons and Trump is their opinion of Trump not a huge policy gap.
sombear
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ATL Bear said:

The greatest con Trump has pulled is getting people to believe a North Eastern Clinton Democrat, blue blood Elitist, quintessential corporatist raider is an Everyman conservative.

We forget the Trump Afghan escalation before the withdrawal decision. The killing of actual Russians in Syria. Killing the Iranian leader of al Quds. He was all in on Israel including the embassy move. Etc, etc. I'm not even arguing against some of these actions, but I think the biggest difference between neocons and Trump is their opinion of Trump not a huge policy gap.

Yep, and he supported both Iraq wars, then said he was against them when he ran for Pres.
Jack Bauer
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Another Maricopa County DUMP at 6PM.

Redbrickbear
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FLBear5630
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Redbrickbear said:


He has a point.
Osodecentx
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RMF5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:


He has a point.
I disagree. Fringe candidates aren't Republican or Conservative. AZ had a good Republican senator and Trumpers ran him off. Now we have 2 Democrats
Redbrickbear
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Osodecentx said:

RMF5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:


He has a point.
I disagree. Fringe candidates aren't Republican or Conservative. AZ had a good Republican senator and Trumpers ran him off. Now we have 2 Democrats

McCain republicans could have turned out to vote for the Conservative candidate and kept the Democrats out.

But we see their priorities...they would rather take their ball & go home when the actual regular voters of the GOP get a say in who is nominated.
Osodecentx
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Redbrickbear said:

Osodecentx said:

RMF5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:


He has a point.
I disagree. Fringe candidates aren't Republican or Conservative. AZ had a good Republican senator and Trumpers ran him off. Now we have 2 Democrats

McCain republicans could have turned out to vote for the Conservative candidate and kept the Democrats out.

But we see their priorities...they would rather take their ball & go home when the actual regular voters of the GOP get a say in who is nominated.
Independents elected Kelly. They don't vote for fringe candidates on either side
Redbrickbear
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Osodecentx said:

Redbrickbear said:

Osodecentx said:

RMF5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:


He has a point.
I disagree. Fringe candidates aren't Republican or Conservative. AZ had a good Republican senator and Trumpers ran him off. Now we have 2 Democrats

McCain republicans could have turned out to vote for the Conservative candidate and kept the Democrats out.

But we see their priorities...they would rather take their ball & go home when the actual regular voters of the GOP get a say in who is nominated.
Independents elected Kelly. They don't vote for fringe candidates on either side

I am interested in what you think is fringe in the policy positions of Blake Masters?

Or is being pro-mass immigration and pro-war like McCain now mean being moderate and middle of the road?
Osodecentx
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Redbrickbear said:

Osodecentx said:

Redbrickbear said:

Osodecentx said:

RMF5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:


He has a point.
I disagree. Fringe candidates aren't Republican or Conservative. AZ had a good Republican senator and Trumpers ran him off. Now we have 2 Democrats

McCain republicans could have turned out to vote for the Conservative candidate and kept the Democrats out.

But we see their priorities...they would rather take their ball & go home when the actual regular voters of the GOP get a say in who is nominated.
Independents elected Kelly. They don't vote for fringe candidates on either side

I am interested in what you think is fringe in the policy positions of Blake Masters?

Or is being pro-mass immigration and pro-war like McCain now mean being moderate and middle of the road?
He thinks Trump won the 2020 election
Osodecentx
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President Biden said Democrats are likely to come "very close" but not keep control of the House once all races are called.
From WaPo
Forest Bueller_bf
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Canada2017 said:

Dems ' magic ' is continuing . Pelosi smiling .

And no one is questioning these late counts ….days after an election.

Welcome to the jungle .
It is simply accepted and unquestioned now.

If it is questioned, the concerned is a conspiracy theorist and un-American.

This stuff is tailor made for cheating. May not be, but easily could.
Jack Bauer
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I think she really is this stupid. How dare they "target" the opponent rather than let him win...



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