To consider, start of 2024 primary schedule:
Super Tuesday is HUGE!
Super Tuesday is HUGE!
OFFICIAL ELECTION THREAD, 11-8-22
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Last: 1 yr ago by whiterock
In the primary, do I vote for the guy who reopened his state as soon as it became apparent that the virus wasn't Insta-death? Or the guy who put Fauci and Birx out front and center and wanted to print money?
I don't recall Trump running for Governor of Florida. Of course, if he could be confused by comparing turnout in a Midterm election to turnout in a Presidential year, he could also be confused about what he was running for ...boognish_bear said:
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
Back away from the Bong, son!whiterock said:Jack Bauer said:boognish_bear said:
is this real? I'm sure it is and shouldn't be a surprise but FFS ...
That is the point Trump critics cannot allow their eyes to see. NO Republican has ever put together a bigger coalition, with more votes, than Donald J Trump. To replace him without a clear template in place for an even larger coalition is madness.
Now, DeSantis made the case yesterday that he might be able do that. But he has not yet explained how he can replicate his magic in PA, Mi, Wi, AZ, NV, NH, eieio…..
Not saying he can't or won't. Just saying he has a lot of work to do. Anointment is premature at this time.
Bear?!J.R. said:Back away from the Bong, son!whiterock said:Jack Bauer said:boognish_bear said:
is this real? I'm sure it is and shouldn't be a surprise but FFS ...
That is the point Trump critics cannot allow their eyes to see. NO Republican has ever put together a bigger coalition, with more votes, than Donald J Trump. To replace him without a clear template in place for an even larger coalition is madness.
Now, DeSantis made the case yesterday that he might be able do that. But he has not yet explained how he can replicate his magic in PA, Mi, Wi, AZ, NV, NH, eieio…..
Not saying he can't or won't. Just saying he has a lot of work to do. Anointment is premature at this time.
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"Things Beto's Dad Told Him Which He Should Have Heeded" for $500, AlexJ.R. said:Back away from the Bong, son!whiterock said:Jack Bauer said:boognish_bear said:
is this real? I'm sure it is and shouldn't be a surprise but FFS ...
That is the point Trump critics cannot allow their eyes to see. NO Republican has ever put together a bigger coalition, with more votes, than Donald J Trump. To replace him without a clear template in place for an even larger coalition is madness.
Now, DeSantis made the case yesterday that he might be able do that. But he has not yet explained how he can replicate his magic in PA, Mi, Wi, AZ, NV, NH, eieio…..
Not saying he can't or won't. Just saying he has a lot of work to do. Anointment is premature at this time.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
Arizona vote drop will be great news on CD races, good news on Gov race, and mixed news on Senate race [sizable drop in lead but sizable drop in remaining runway].
Adriacus Peratuun said:
Arizona vote drop will be great news on CD races, good news on Gov race, and mixed news on Senate race [sizable drop in lead but sizable drop in remaining runway].
NV is close to out of reach for Cortez..
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The combo of "safe seats" flipping, numerous "lean seats" ranging far afield, called races being retracted to Open, etc. prove that numerical possibilities and not historical "go by's" are the only reliable method for calling this cycle's races.4th and Inches said:Adriacus Peratuun said:
Arizona vote drop will be great news on CD races, good news on Gov race, and mixed news on Senate race [sizable drop in lead but sizable drop in remaining runway].
NV is close to out of reach for Cortez..
Want to see 10+% more returns before even thinking of prognosticating.
At the current counting pace, that gives me weeks to comb the data…..lol.
Jack Bauer said:If #Florida can count 7.5 million ballots in 5 hours how can it take days for some states to count less than 2 million?
— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) November 9, 2022
they will be done soon..ishAdriacus Peratuun said:The combo of "safe seats" flipping, numerous "lean seats" ranging far afield, called races being retracted to Open, etc. prove that numerical possibilities and not historical "go by's" are the only reliable method for calling this cycle's races.4th and Inches said:Adriacus Peratuun said:
Arizona vote drop will be great news on CD races, good news on Gov race, and mixed news on Senate race [sizable drop in lead but sizable drop in remaining runway].
NV is close to out of reach for Cortez..
Want to see 10+% more returns before even thinking of prognosticating.
At the current counting pace, that gives me weeks to comb the data…..lol.
The term they were voted for may be half over by then but we will know for sure it was done fairly! Murica!
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Arizona:
The early drop off ballots are done. The "week before" drop off ballots are close to done. The huge "last 3 days" drop off ballots [275K] and the safe space ballots [from the voting machine fiasco] both remain unreported. That is 275K plus 16K. Those will both skew heavily R. At this point Masters needs them at 2 to 1.
That is a really big ask.
The early drop off ballots are done. The "week before" drop off ballots are close to done. The huge "last 3 days" drop off ballots [275K] and the safe space ballots [from the voting machine fiasco] both remain unreported. That is 275K plus 16K. Those will both skew heavily R. At this point Masters needs them at 2 to 1.
That is a really big ask.
Sorry if already posted..
HO... LEE... SHIT
— Greg Price (@greg_price11) November 9, 2022
Lauren Boebert is now only trailing her Democrat opponent by 62 votes. pic.twitter.com/KvpXH3ID8c
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Trump 2020 margin of victory in Florida: 371,686
— Nick Rizzuto (@Nick_Rizzuto) November 10, 2022
DeSantis 2022 margin of victory in Florida: 1.5 million pic.twitter.com/YvOdsYxIIE
Huge ask, but it is possible. Prior dumps have trended there..Adriacus Peratuun said:
Arizona:
The early drop off ballots are done. The "week before" drop off ballots are close to done. The huge "last 3 days" drop off ballots [275K] and the safe space ballots [from the voting machine fiasco] both remain unreported. That is 275K plus 16K. Those will both skew heavily R. At this point Masters needs them at 2 to 1.
That is a really big ask.
The last drop I am aware of was 23k votes and showed Masters got 15k or 65 % while Kelly got 8k or 35%.
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Former Trump White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany says Florida Gov. DeSantis should campaign for Republican Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate runoff, but former Pres. Trump should delay his Nov. 15th announcement and stay away from the race:pic.twitter.com/w64ZfP9ra6
— Alex Salvi (@alexsalvinews) November 9, 2022
Abbott vote % '18 vs '22:
— William Joy (@WilliamJoy) November 9, 2022
Ellis 72% - 67%
Denton 59 - 56
Collin 59 - 54
Tarrant 54 - 51
Harris 46 - 45
Bexar - 46 - 41
Dallas 39 - 36
Travis 30 - 26
Statewide 56 - 55...
Tonight at 10 on @wfaa political researchers share the positive and negative takeaways for each party
I didn't, just bought the facts.
whiterock said:Jack Bauer said:boognish_bear said:
is this real? I'm sure it is and shouldn't be a surprise but FFS ...
That is the point Trump critics cannot allow their eyes to see. NO Republican has ever put together a bigger coalition, with more votes, than Donald J Trump. To replace him without a clear template in place for an even larger coalition is madness.
Now, DeSantis made the case yesterday that he might be able do that. But he has not yet explained how he can replicate his magic in PA, Mi, Wi, AZ, NV, NH, eieio…..
Not saying he can't or won't. Just saying he has a lot of work to do. Anointment is premature at this time.
Trump is looking desperate now with latest tweets. He runs the risk of losing GOP cover. Coalitionis not as strong as many thought. Rep Govs showed Trump is not needed to win.
Never take your right to vote for granted. Just think of all the people in places like North Korea, Afghanistan, and Maricopa County who don't have that right.
— Michael Knowles (@michaeljknowles) November 8, 2022
Adriacus Peratuun said:
Arizona:
The early drop off ballots are done. The "week before" drop off ballots are close to done. The huge "last 3 days" drop off ballots [275K] and the safe space ballots [from the voting machine fiasco] both remain unreported. That is 275K plus 16K. Those will both skew heavily R. At this point Masters needs them at 2 to 1.
That is a really big ask.
Yea, he is back down by 95K. That is really hard to overcome.
RMF5630 said:whiterock said:Jack Bauer said:boognish_bear said:
is this real? I'm sure it is and shouldn't be a surprise but FFS ...
That is the point Trump critics cannot allow their eyes to see. NO Republican has ever put together a bigger coalition, with more votes, than Donald J Trump. To replace him without a clear template in place for an even larger coalition is madness.
Now, DeSantis made the case yesterday that he might be able do that. But he has not yet explained how he can replicate his magic in PA, Mi, Wi, AZ, NV, NH, eieio…..
Not saying he can't or won't. Just saying he has a lot of work to do. Anointment is premature at this time.
Trump is looking desperate now with latest tweets. He runs the risk of losing GOP cover. Coalitionis not as strong as many thought. Rep Govs showed Trump is not needed to win.
Trump is a handicap….not a benefit .
Newsome would slaughter the old fat man in 2024 .
Forest Bueller said:Adriacus Peratuun said:
Arizona:
The early drop off ballots are done. The "week before" drop off ballots are close to done. The huge "last 3 days" drop off ballots [275K] and the safe space ballots [from the voting machine fiasco] both remain unreported. That is 275K plus 16K. Those will both skew heavily R. At this point Masters needs them at 2 to 1.
That is a really big ask.
Yea, he is back down by 95K. That is really hard to overcome.
Anybody know the location of LBJs ballot box?
This latest drop is only about 15% of the total ballots remaining and the batch was expected to be the worst for the Republicans. This batch was guessed at 80kish, only 62kish.. being told they are doing early mail in first and then the ED drops and tabulation problem special box drops last. Approx 360k ballots left in Maricopa..Forest Bueller said:Adriacus Peratuun said:
Arizona:
The early drop off ballots are done. The "week before" drop off ballots are close to done. The huge "last 3 days" drop off ballots [275K] and the safe space ballots [from the voting machine fiasco] both remain unreported. That is 275K plus 16K. Those will both skew heavily R. At this point Masters needs them at 2 to 1.
That is a really big ask.
Yea, he is back down by 95K. That is really hard to overcome.
Big hill to climb..
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Remember that liberals are phonies when it comes to protecting and respecting women.
Criticizing Kamala Harris=sexism
Making crass jokes about Republican women= yuck yuck yuck. A-ok.
Criticizing Kamala Harris=sexism
Making crass jokes about Republican women= yuck yuck yuck. A-ok.
Demeaning, creepy, sexualized things you get to say about female politicians if you're doing so for the right cause and on the right liberal channel.
— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) November 10, 2022
Pick your most beloved liberal politician and imagine the uproar if this were said about them on Fox while the host giggled: https://t.co/hrmKRnNhxO
Fox of course is asking the panel if @KamalaHarris was “likeable” enough ... #sexism lives on Fox “News”
— Kurt Bardella (@kurtbardella) October 8, 2020
That remaining ballot # for Maricopa seems high. The state total was 600K remaining, 150K in Pima County. Maybe the remaining counties collectively total 90K…….but that seems low. Time will tell.4th and Inches said:This latest drop is only about 15% of the total ballots remaining and the batch was expected to be the worst for the Republicans. This batch was guessed at 80kish, only 62kish.. being told they are doing early mail in first and then the ED drops and tabulation problem special box drops last. Approx 360k ballots left in Maricopa..Forest Bueller said:Adriacus Peratuun said:
Arizona:
The early drop off ballots are done. The "week before" drop off ballots are close to done. The huge "last 3 days" drop off ballots [275K] and the safe space ballots [from the voting machine fiasco] both remain unreported. That is 275K plus 16K. Those will both skew heavily R. At this point Masters needs them at 2 to 1.
That is a really big ask.
Yea, he is back down by 95K. That is really hard to overcome.
Big hill to climb..
Numbers coming from on the ground in Phoenix..Adriacus Peratuun said:That remaining ballot # for Maricopa seems quite high.4th and Inches said:This latest drop is only about 15% of the total ballots remaining and the batch was expected to be the worst for the Republicans. This batch was guessed at 80kish, only 62kish.. being told they are doing early mail in first and then the ED drops and tabulation problem special box drops last. Approx 360k ballots left in Maricopa..Forest Bueller said:Adriacus Peratuun said:
Arizona:
The early drop off ballots are done. The "week before" drop off ballots are close to done. The huge "last 3 days" drop off ballots [275K] and the safe space ballots [from the voting machine fiasco] both remain unreported. That is 275K plus 16K. Those will both skew heavily R. At this point Masters needs them at 2 to 1.
That is a really big ask.
Yea, he is back down by 95K. That is really hard to overcome.
Big hill to climb..
The 275k number is the ED only from my understanding..
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Estimated *Non-Provisional* ballots left in #AZ to count based on reports from the Counties (not all have reported).
— Data Orbital (@Data_Orbital) November 10, 2022
Coconino: 14k
Gila: 3,450
Graham: 16
Greenlee: 304
La Paz: 892
Maricopa: 428k
Mohave: 10,600
Pima: 154k
Pinal: 24,863
Yavapai: 16,550
Yuma: 8,400
~672k ballots
This was prior to the Maricopa drop of 62k ballots
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4th and Inches said:Estimated *Non-Provisional* ballots left in #AZ to count based on reports from the Counties (not all have reported).
— Data Orbital (@Data_Orbital) November 10, 2022
Coconino: 14k
Gila: 3,450
Graham: 16
Greenlee: 304
La Paz: 892
Maricopa: 428k
Mohave: 10,600
Pima: 154k
Pinal: 24,863
Yavapai: 16,550
Yuma: 8,400
~672k ballots
This was prior to the Maricopa drop of 62k ballots
How do you not count 16 ballots? It takes longer to report that you havent counted 16 ballots than it does to count 16 ballots... smh
Feminism power! Yay!!
Welcome to America. pic.twitter.com/f45030NYJG
— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) November 10, 2022
Jack Bauer said:
Feminism power! Yay!!Welcome to America. pic.twitter.com/f45030NYJG
— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) November 10, 2022
America is a nation under God's judgment. The sooner we realize that and repent from our sins, then the sooner we can partake of his grace again.
what a ****ing child! Go away, fat, orange, man.boognish_bear said:Trump 2020 margin of victory in Florida: 371,686
— Nick Rizzuto (@Nick_Rizzuto) November 10, 2022
DeSantis 2022 margin of victory in Florida: 1.5 million pic.twitter.com/YvOdsYxIIE
And they caused their sons and their daughters to pass through the fire, and used divination and enchantments, and sold themselves to do evil in the sight of the LORD, to provoke him to anger.
Hearing there are 8,300 still left from Cochise County, AZ which is not on the original list above.
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boognish_bear said:Abbott vote % '18 vs '22:
— William Joy (@WilliamJoy) November 9, 2022
Ellis 72% - 67%
Denton 59 - 56
Collin 59 - 54
Tarrant 54 - 51
Harris 46 - 45
Bexar - 46 - 41
Dallas 39 - 36
Travis 30 - 26
Statewide 56 - 55...
Tonight at 10 on @wfaa political researchers share the positive and negative takeaways for each party
McLennan County:
2018: Abbott 65.59, Valdez 32.97
2022: Abbott 65.98, Beto 32.71
This despite the plethora of Beto signs (mostly in the yards of Wokey BU professors) in my neighborhood.