OFFICIAL ELECTION THREAD, 11-8-22

43,203 Views | 1063 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by whiterock
Harrison Bergeron
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Forest Bueller_bf said:

Canada2017 said:

Dems ' magic ' is continuing . Pelosi smiling .

And no one is questioning these late counts ….days after an election.

Welcome to the jungle .
It is simply accepted and unquestioned now.

If it is questioned, the concerned is a conspiracy theorist and un-American.

This stuff is tailor made for cheating. May not be, but easily could.
That's exactly where I shake out ... I'm not saying there is / was cheating, but delays certainly create an environment where cheating would be easier than under a timely count.
Canada2017
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The longer the delays....the more likely Dem 'magic' wins the House.


Worse...few will be surprised or even care.



Married A Horn
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Canada2017 said:

The longer the delays....the more likely Dem 'magic' wins the House.


Worse...few will be surprised or even care.






The nation has left God. The downfall is enevitible. I still care, but, meh, we get what we deserve.
ron.reagan
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Married A Horn said:

Canada2017 said:

The longer the delays....the more likely Dem 'magic' wins the House.


Worse...few will be surprised or even care.






The nation has left God. The downfall is enevitible. I still care, but, meh, we get what we deserve.
A bit dramatic. I imagine it was hard to think God was with us being tied to the bottom floor of a slave ship
Canada2017
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Married A Horn said:

Canada2017 said:

The longer the delays....the more likely Dem 'magic' wins the House.


Worse...few will be surprised or even care.






The nation has left God. The downfall is enevitible. I still care, but, meh, we get what we deserve.


Capitalists wanted cheap labor .

They got cheap labor .

But now, generations later, the real cost of that cheap labor is reverberating throughout the country .

Welcome to Argentina.
Redbrickbear
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ron.reagan said:

Married A Horn said:

Canada2017 said:

The longer the delays....the more likely Dem 'magic' wins the House.


Worse...few will be surprised or even care.






The nation has left God. The downfall is enevitible. I still care, but, meh, we get what we deserve.
A bit dramatic. I imagine it was hard to think God was with us being tied to the bottom floor of a slave ship


"We did old evil things in the past. Let's keep doing new and innovative evil things today"
Jack Bauer
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When mansplaining is allowed...

whitetrash
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Jack Bauer said:

When mansplaining is allowed...





Yente gonna yente…..
ron.reagan
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Redbrickbear said:

ron.reagan said:

Married A Horn said:

Canada2017 said:

The longer the delays....the more likely Dem 'magic' wins the House.


Worse...few will be surprised or even care.






The nation has left God. The downfall is enevitible. I still care, but, meh, we get what we deserve.
A bit dramatic. I imagine it was hard to think God was with us being tied to the bottom floor of a slave ship


"We did old evil things in the past. Let's keep doing new and innovative evil things today"
Were you just sitting on that to use somewhere? Because it doesn't relate to what I said at all.

Perhaps you can make a timeline when God was with this country.
sombear
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Canada2017 said:

sombear said:

So is it fraud that the GOP is crushing it in the AZ House races?


Really think it takes a week to count congressional districts ?

Good grief .
Unfortunately, yes. It's happening all over. We just don't hear much about it because the races aren't close. Too many states use antiquated systems. It's a disgrace. But it doesn't mean fraud. Many of AZ's problems are the GOP's fault. They did not want certain systems connected to the internet because they wanted to protect against hackers. Sounds good in theory, but created a mess.
sombear
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Redbrickbear said:

Osodecentx said:

Redbrickbear said:

Osodecentx said:

RMF5630 said:

Redbrickbear said:


He has a point.
I disagree. Fringe candidates aren't Republican or Conservative. AZ had a good Republican senator and Trumpers ran him off. Now we have 2 Democrats

McCain republicans could have turned out to vote for the Conservative candidate and kept the Democrats out.

But we see their priorities...they would rather take their ball & go home when the actual regular voters of the GOP get a say in who is nominated.
Independents elected Kelly. They don't vote for fringe candidates on either side

I am interested in what you think is fringe in the policy positions of Blake Masters?

Or is being pro-mass immigration and pro-war like McCain now mean being moderate and middle of the road?
Unfortunately, he's said a lot of stupid things over his career, and Dems tore him up. Just google it. Doesn't mean his policies are bad. He was just damaged goods. He actually ran a better campaign than I thought he would. I was disappointed when McConnell decided late not to fund him. But he was consistently down 5-6 points in internals, so I somewhat understand it given how PA, GA, NC, WI, NV, and even OH were closer.
ron.reagan
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sombear said:

Canada2017 said:

sombear said:

So is it fraud that the GOP is crushing it in the AZ House races?


Really think it takes a week to count congressional districts ?

Good grief .
Unfortunately, yes. It's happening all over. We just don't hear much about it because the races aren't close. Too many states use antiquated systems. It's a disgrace. But it doesn't mean fraud. Many of AZ's problems are the GOP's fault. They did not want certain systems connected to the internet because they wanted to protect against hackers. Sounds good in theory, but created a mess.
I prefer the possibility of localized fraud than the disaster a connected grid could give us..keep it all offline
4th and Inches
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Osodecentx said:

President Biden said Democrats are likely to come "very close" but not keep control of the House once all races are called.
From WaPo
they lost the house.. we know enough to call it. Dems had to run the table in the toss ups and they didnt.
“Mix a little foolishness with your serious plans. It is lovely to be silly at the right moment.”

–Horace


“Insomnia sharpens your math skills because you spend all night calculating how much sleep you’ll get if you’re able to ‘fall asleep right now.’ “
Osodecentx
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4th and Inches said:

Osodecentx said:

President Biden said Democrats are likely to come "very close" but not keep control of the House once all races are called.
From WaPo
they lost the house.. we know enough to call it. Dems had to run the table in the toss ups and they didnt.


Well, a narrow ray of sunshine
Limited IQ Redneck in PU
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Canada2017 said:

Red wave magically becomes Blue .

Dems retain control of the Senate .
Dems retain governorships of Michigan, Arizona and New York.

Republicans narrowly win control of the House with a majority of less than 15 seats.





A prophet
I have found theres only two ways to go:
Living fast or dying slow.
I dont want to live forever.
But I will live while I'm here.
Married A Horn
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Canada2017 said:

Red wave magically becomes Blue .

Dems retain control of the Senate .
Dems retain governorships of Michigan, Arizona and New York.

Republicans narrowly win control of the House with a majority of less than 15 seats.







Lotto numbers for this week?
Osodecentx
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WaPo

Inside Kari Lake's war room, where Republicans prepare for likely loss

The subdued mood marks a reversal from just days earlier, when the GOP gubernatorial nominee in Arizona was readying a transition team
Jack Bauer
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Woop -there it is.


4th and Inches
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Limited IQ Redneck in PU said:

Canada2017 said:

Red wave magically becomes Blue .

Dems retain control of the Senate .
Dems retain governorships of Michigan, Arizona and New York.

Republicans narrowly win control of the House with a majority of less than 15 seats.





A prophet
i am tellin yall, i am listening to Canada about all things political from now on.. he has been money for two cycles now.
“Mix a little foolishness with your serious plans. It is lovely to be silly at the right moment.”

–Horace


“Insomnia sharpens your math skills because you spend all night calculating how much sleep you’ll get if you’re able to ‘fall asleep right now.’ “
Canada2017
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Limited IQ Redneck in PU said:

Canada2017 said:

Red wave magically becomes Blue .

Dems retain control of the Senate .
Dems retain governorships of Michigan, Arizona and New York.

Republicans narrowly win control of the House with a majority of less than 15 seats.





A prophet


Follow up :

A. Trump enters into a slash and burn mode against the Republican Party . Goes the 3rd party route to oblivion.

B. Dems know a good deal when they see one ….document charges against Trump get delayed . Leaving Trump to
be eligible to run for president in 2024 via his 3rd party medicine show .

C. Feds raise interest rates still again before the end of the year . Smaller increase than the previous two . Housing market crashes nationwide . Some areas drop 20-35% by May .

D. Unemployment rises to at least 7.5 % by June .

E. For the first time in decades ….malnutrition will become a reality for tens of millions of Americans.

F. Gavin Newsom becomes the Democrats political super star .
The American 'Trudeau ' takes center stage from Biden .





4th and Inches
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In case you missed it: Maricopa election officials launched PAC in 2021 to stop MAGA candidates
“Mix a little foolishness with your serious plans. It is lovely to be silly at the right moment.”

–Horace


“Insomnia sharpens your math skills because you spend all night calculating how much sleep you’ll get if you’re able to ‘fall asleep right now.’ “
william
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Canada2017 said:

Limited IQ Redneck in PU said:

Canada2017 said:

Red wave magically becomes Blue .

Dems retain control of the Senate .
Dems retain governorships of Michigan, Arizona and New York.

Republicans narrowly win control of the House with a majority of less than 15 seats.





A prophet


Follow up :

A. Trump enters into a slash and burn mode against the Republican Party . Goes the 3rd party route to oblivion.

B. Dems know a good deal when they see one ….document charges against Trump get delayed . Leaving Trump to
be eligible to run for president in 2024 via his 3rd party medicine show .

C. Feds raise interest rates still again before the end of the year . Smaller increase than the previous two . Housing market crashes nationwide . Some areas drop 20-35% by May .

D. Unemployment rises to at least 8 % by May.

E. For the first time in decades ….malnutrition will become a reality for tens of millions of Americans.


F. The Boot remains in Laramie.

- kkm
Fetterman2024
Canada2017
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william said:

Canada2017 said:

Limited IQ Redneck in PU said:

Canada2017 said:

Red wave magically becomes Blue .

Dems retain control of the Senate .
Dems retain governorships of Michigan, Arizona and New York.

Republicans narrowly win control of the House with a majority of less than 15 seats.





A prophet


Follow up :

A. Trump enters into a slash and burn mode against the Republican Party . Goes the 3rd party route to oblivion.

B. Dems know a good deal when they see one ….document charges against Trump get delayed . Leaving Trump to
be eligible to run for president in 2024 via his 3rd party medicine show .

C. Feds raise interest rates still again before the end of the year . Smaller increase than the previous two . Housing market crashes nationwide . Some areas drop 20-35% by May .

D. Unemployment rises to at least 8 % by May.

E. For the first time in decades ….malnutrition will become a reality for tens of millions of Americans.


F. The Boot remains in Laramie.

- kkm


Only if someone doesn't cook and eat it first .
Oldbear83
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Sam Lowry said:

whiterock said:

sombear said:

Passing along some fascinating vote info from GOP. Much of this is public by now:

* Record % of voters made up their mind the last few days.
* Record ticket-splitting - e.g., vote for GOP Gov but Dem Senate, hurting GOP in GA, NV, AZ, OH, NH
* Independents broke hard and late for Dems - almost never happens in midterm with unpopular Pres. Even pronounced in key races.
* GOP met turnout metrics.
* GOP will win popular vote by 4% with little or nothing to show for it.
* Unusually high % of voters voted against their top issue - e.g., Fetterman won majority of voters who cited crime as their top issue; Warnock leading among those saying inflation top issue.
* Suburbs hurt the GOP overall, but strong for GOP in FL, NY, TX, and a few other states.
* As I posted before the election, GOP Senate candidate quality was around -2.5%, meaning based on metrics, the entire slate of GOP candidates was 2.5% behind an average slate. I did not get breakdowns, but that likely means some of our worst GOP Senate candidates were easily -5% to -7%, which is historically bad.
* GOP House candidates were an average +2 quality. Strong slate.
* In House, outside of FL, NY, and CA (likely), GOP did good enough to make tough races close but still lose. In other words, GOP made races close where they were substantial underdogs, but could not get over the edge in races where they were close underdogs. If there were any sort of wave (which is typical with an unpopular Pres) GOP would have got the extra ~1% it needed in tens of races.
* GOP continued to improve with Hispanics, African Americans, and Asians.
* Weak Gov/Senate candidates hurt GOP House races in PA, MI, MD, NH. Zeldin, even though he lost, was huge for GOP House in NY.
* Trump disapproval among all voters was ~60%. Biden disapproval was ~55%. Trump also worse on "strong disapproval."
* Record high approval for Pelosi - due to sympathy over attack on husband. One GOP insider believes this incident had more impact than any other single recent issue, which I find hard to believe.
* About the same % of voters made their decision based on Biden (for or against) and Trump (for or against). This is unprecedented. Midterm has always been a verdict on a sitting Pres, with leading opposition figure barely on radar.


Worth noting that Romney met his turnout metrics, too. They were just the wrong metrics.

The electorate is not a static thing. A not-terribly-political single divorced woman with kids can be appealed to as a single mom, or as an unmarried career woman, or as an anti abortion voter, or as a "am I safe walking to work" voter. If Republicans pick the second best of those four things to appeal to her, you leave an opening for Democrats to appeal to the first. And that's pretty much what happened. Democrats had a message which trumped ours.

McCarthy and McConnell should lose their leadership jobs over this.
They won't.
But they should.
McConnell warned you exactly what would happen and why.
McConnell regularly goes to dinner parties with Schumer, and dumped money to help Murkowski and not GOP candidates in Pennsylvania, Georgia or Nevada..

Yet he's Sam's example of the ideal Republican.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
4th and Inches
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Oldbear83 said:

Sam Lowry said:

whiterock said:

sombear said:

Passing along some fascinating vote info from GOP. Much of this is public by now:

* Record % of voters made up their mind the last few days.
* Record ticket-splitting - e.g., vote for GOP Gov but Dem Senate, hurting GOP in GA, NV, AZ, OH, NH
* Independents broke hard and late for Dems - almost never happens in midterm with unpopular Pres. Even pronounced in key races.
* GOP met turnout metrics.
* GOP will win popular vote by 4% with little or nothing to show for it.
* Unusually high % of voters voted against their top issue - e.g., Fetterman won majority of voters who cited crime as their top issue; Warnock leading among those saying inflation top issue.
* Suburbs hurt the GOP overall, but strong for GOP in FL, NY, TX, and a few other states.
* As I posted before the election, GOP Senate candidate quality was around -2.5%, meaning based on metrics, the entire slate of GOP candidates was 2.5% behind an average slate. I did not get breakdowns, but that likely means some of our worst GOP Senate candidates were easily -5% to -7%, which is historically bad.
* GOP House candidates were an average +2 quality. Strong slate.
* In House, outside of FL, NY, and CA (likely), GOP did good enough to make tough races close but still lose. In other words, GOP made races close where they were substantial underdogs, but could not get over the edge in races where they were close underdogs. If there were any sort of wave (which is typical with an unpopular Pres) GOP would have got the extra ~1% it needed in tens of races.
* GOP continued to improve with Hispanics, African Americans, and Asians.
* Weak Gov/Senate candidates hurt GOP House races in PA, MI, MD, NH. Zeldin, even though he lost, was huge for GOP House in NY.
* Trump disapproval among all voters was ~60%. Biden disapproval was ~55%. Trump also worse on "strong disapproval."
* Record high approval for Pelosi - due to sympathy over attack on husband. One GOP insider believes this incident had more impact than any other single recent issue, which I find hard to believe.
* About the same % of voters made their decision based on Biden (for or against) and Trump (for or against). This is unprecedented. Midterm has always been a verdict on a sitting Pres, with leading opposition figure barely on radar.


Worth noting that Romney met his turnout metrics, too. They were just the wrong metrics.

The electorate is not a static thing. A not-terribly-political single divorced woman with kids can be appealed to as a single mom, or as an unmarried career woman, or as an anti abortion voter, or as a "am I safe walking to work" voter. If Republicans pick the second best of those four things to appeal to her, you leave an opening for Democrats to appeal to the first. And that's pretty much what happened. Democrats had a message which trumped ours.

McCarthy and McConnell should lose their leadership jobs over this.
They won't.
But they should.
McConnell warned you exactly what would happen and why.
McConnell regularly goes to dinner parties with Schumer, and dumped money to help Murkowski and not GOP candidates in Pennsylvania, Georgia or Nevada..

Yet he's Sam's example of the ideal Republican.
Mitch is a washington swamp monster protecting the swamp. He helped the people who would march to his drum or he let the other side of the swamp coin win.

These are the two sides of the uniparty.
“Mix a little foolishness with your serious plans. It is lovely to be silly at the right moment.”

–Horace


“Insomnia sharpens your math skills because you spend all night calculating how much sleep you’ll get if you’re able to ‘fall asleep right now.’ “
Married A Horn
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Oldbear83 said:

Sam Lowry said:

whiterock said:

sombear said:

Passing along some fascinating vote info from GOP. Much of this is public by now:

* Record % of voters made up their mind the last few days.
* Record ticket-splitting - e.g., vote for GOP Gov but Dem Senate, hurting GOP in GA, NV, AZ, OH, NH
* Independents broke hard and late for Dems - almost never happens in midterm with unpopular Pres. Even pronounced in key races.
* GOP met turnout metrics.
* GOP will win popular vote by 4% with little or nothing to show for it.
* Unusually high % of voters voted against their top issue - e.g., Fetterman won majority of voters who cited crime as their top issue; Warnock leading among those saying inflation top issue.
* Suburbs hurt the GOP overall, but strong for GOP in FL, NY, TX, and a few other states.
* As I posted before the election, GOP Senate candidate quality was around -2.5%, meaning based on metrics, the entire slate of GOP candidates was 2.5% behind an average slate. I did not get breakdowns, but that likely means some of our worst GOP Senate candidates were easily -5% to -7%, which is historically bad.
* GOP House candidates were an average +2 quality. Strong slate.
* In House, outside of FL, NY, and CA (likely), GOP did good enough to make tough races close but still lose. In other words, GOP made races close where they were substantial underdogs, but could not get over the edge in races where they were close underdogs. If there were any sort of wave (which is typical with an unpopular Pres) GOP would have got the extra ~1% it needed in tens of races.
* GOP continued to improve with Hispanics, African Americans, and Asians.
* Weak Gov/Senate candidates hurt GOP House races in PA, MI, MD, NH. Zeldin, even though he lost, was huge for GOP House in NY.
* Trump disapproval among all voters was ~60%. Biden disapproval was ~55%. Trump also worse on "strong disapproval."
* Record high approval for Pelosi - due to sympathy over attack on husband. One GOP insider believes this incident had more impact than any other single recent issue, which I find hard to believe.
* About the same % of voters made their decision based on Biden (for or against) and Trump (for or against). This is unprecedented. Midterm has always been a verdict on a sitting Pres, with leading opposition figure barely on radar.


Worth noting that Romney met his turnout metrics, too. They were just the wrong metrics.

The electorate is not a static thing. A not-terribly-political single divorced woman with kids can be appealed to as a single mom, or as an unmarried career woman, or as an anti abortion voter, or as a "am I safe walking to work" voter. If Republicans pick the second best of those four things to appeal to her, you leave an opening for Democrats to appeal to the first. And that's pretty much what happened. Democrats had a message which trumped ours.

McCarthy and McConnell should lose their leadership jobs over this.
They won't.
But they should.
McConnell warned you exactly what would happen and why.
McConnell regularly goes to dinner parties with Schumer, and dumped money to help Murkowski and not GOP candidates in Pennsylvania, Georgia or Nevada..

Yet he's Sam's example of the ideal Republican.


Never listen to Sam. He's wrong 100% of the time. And an Elitist.
Canada2017
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4th and Inches said:

Oldbear83 said:

Sam Lowry said:

whiterock said:

sombear said:

Passing along some fascinating vote info from GOP. Much of this is public by now:

* Record % of voters made up their mind the last few days.
* Record ticket-splitting - e.g., vote for GOP Gov but Dem Senate, hurting GOP in GA, NV, AZ, OH, NH
* Independents broke hard and late for Dems - almost never happens in midterm with unpopular Pres. Even pronounced in key races.
* GOP met turnout metrics.
* GOP will win popular vote by 4% with little or nothing to show for it.
* Unusually high % of voters voted against their top issue - e.g., Fetterman won majority of voters who cited crime as their top issue; Warnock leading among those saying inflation top issue.
* Suburbs hurt the GOP overall, but strong for GOP in FL, NY, TX, and a few other states.
* As I posted before the election, GOP Senate candidate quality was around -2.5%, meaning based on metrics, the entire slate of GOP candidates was 2.5% behind an average slate. I did not get breakdowns, but that likely means some of our worst GOP Senate candidates were easily -5% to -7%, which is historically bad.
* GOP House candidates were an average +2 quality. Strong slate.
* In House, outside of FL, NY, and CA (likely), GOP did good enough to make tough races close but still lose. In other words, GOP made races close where they were substantial underdogs, but could not get over the edge in races where they were close underdogs. If there were any sort of wave (which is typical with an unpopular Pres) GOP would have got the extra ~1% it needed in tens of races.
* GOP continued to improve with Hispanics, African Americans, and Asians.
* Weak Gov/Senate candidates hurt GOP House races in PA, MI, MD, NH. Zeldin, even though he lost, was huge for GOP House in NY.
* Trump disapproval among all voters was ~60%. Biden disapproval was ~55%. Trump also worse on "strong disapproval."
* Record high approval for Pelosi - due to sympathy over attack on husband. One GOP insider believes this incident had more impact than any other single recent issue, which I find hard to believe.
* About the same % of voters made their decision based on Biden (for or against) and Trump (for or against). This is unprecedented. Midterm has always been a verdict on a sitting Pres, with leading opposition figure barely on radar.


Worth noting that Romney met his turnout metrics, too. They were just the wrong metrics.

The electorate is not a static thing. A not-terribly-political single divorced woman with kids can be appealed to as a single mom, or as an unmarried career woman, or as an anti abortion voter, or as a "am I safe walking to work" voter. If Republicans pick the second best of those four things to appeal to her, you leave an opening for Democrats to appeal to the first. And that's pretty much what happened. Democrats had a message which trumped ours.

McCarthy and McConnell should lose their leadership jobs over this.
They won't.
But they should.
McConnell warned you exactly what would happen and why.
McConnell regularly goes to dinner parties with Schumer, and dumped money to help Murkowski and not GOP candidates in Pennsylvania, Georgia or Nevada..

Yet he's Sam's example of the ideal Republican.
Mitch is a washington swamp monster protecting the swamp. He helped the people who would march to his drum or he let the other side of the swamp coin win.

These are the two sides of the uniparty.


Mitch was dead on with his pre election assessments .
Limited IQ Redneck in PU
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Canada2017 said:

Limited IQ Redneck in PU said:

Canada2017 said:

Red wave magically becomes Blue .

Dems retain control of the Senate .
Dems retain governorships of Michigan, Arizona and New York.

Republicans narrowly win control of the House with a majority of less than 15 seats.





A prophet


Follow up :

A. Trump enters into a slash and burn mode against the Republican Party . Goes the 3rd party route to oblivion.

B. Dems know a good deal when they see one ….document charges against Trump get delayed . Leaving Trump to
be eligible to run for president in 2024 via his 3rd party medicine show .

C. Feds raise interest rates still again before the end of the year . Smaller increase than the previous two . Housing market crashes nationwide . Some areas drop 20-35% by May .

D. Unemployment rises to at least 7.5 % by June .

E. For the first time in decades ….malnutrition will become a reality for tens of millions of Americans.

F. Gavin Newsom becomes the Democrats political super star .
The American 'Trudeau ' takes center stage from Biden .






You are pushing it now
I have found theres only two ways to go:
Living fast or dying slow.
I dont want to live forever.
But I will live while I'm here.
4th and Inches
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4th and Inches said:

In case you missed it: Maricopa election officials launched PAC in 2021 to stop MAGA candidates
well this is interesting:

top Maricopa County election officer Stephen Richer, who helped to oversee elections in Arizona, donated to the far-left "resistance group" PatriotTakes.

This is on top of starting the other PAC
“Mix a little foolishness with your serious plans. It is lovely to be silly at the right moment.”

–Horace


“Insomnia sharpens your math skills because you spend all night calculating how much sleep you’ll get if you’re able to ‘fall asleep right now.’ “
4th and Inches
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Canada2017 said:

4th and Inches said:

Oldbear83 said:

Sam Lowry said:

whiterock said:

sombear said:

Passing along some fascinating vote info from GOP. Much of this is public by now:

* Record % of voters made up their mind the last few days.
* Record ticket-splitting - e.g., vote for GOP Gov but Dem Senate, hurting GOP in GA, NV, AZ, OH, NH
* Independents broke hard and late for Dems - almost never happens in midterm with unpopular Pres. Even pronounced in key races.
* GOP met turnout metrics.
* GOP will win popular vote by 4% with little or nothing to show for it.
* Unusually high % of voters voted against their top issue - e.g., Fetterman won majority of voters who cited crime as their top issue; Warnock leading among those saying inflation top issue.
* Suburbs hurt the GOP overall, but strong for GOP in FL, NY, TX, and a few other states.
* As I posted before the election, GOP Senate candidate quality was around -2.5%, meaning based on metrics, the entire slate of GOP candidates was 2.5% behind an average slate. I did not get breakdowns, but that likely means some of our worst GOP Senate candidates were easily -5% to -7%, which is historically bad.
* GOP House candidates were an average +2 quality. Strong slate.
* In House, outside of FL, NY, and CA (likely), GOP did good enough to make tough races close but still lose. In other words, GOP made races close where they were substantial underdogs, but could not get over the edge in races where they were close underdogs. If there were any sort of wave (which is typical with an unpopular Pres) GOP would have got the extra ~1% it needed in tens of races.
* GOP continued to improve with Hispanics, African Americans, and Asians.
* Weak Gov/Senate candidates hurt GOP House races in PA, MI, MD, NH. Zeldin, even though he lost, was huge for GOP House in NY.
* Trump disapproval among all voters was ~60%. Biden disapproval was ~55%. Trump also worse on "strong disapproval."
* Record high approval for Pelosi - due to sympathy over attack on husband. One GOP insider believes this incident had more impact than any other single recent issue, which I find hard to believe.
* About the same % of voters made their decision based on Biden (for or against) and Trump (for or against). This is unprecedented. Midterm has always been a verdict on a sitting Pres, with leading opposition figure barely on radar.


Worth noting that Romney met his turnout metrics, too. They were just the wrong metrics.

The electorate is not a static thing. A not-terribly-political single divorced woman with kids can be appealed to as a single mom, or as an unmarried career woman, or as an anti abortion voter, or as a "am I safe walking to work" voter. If Republicans pick the second best of those four things to appeal to her, you leave an opening for Democrats to appeal to the first. And that's pretty much what happened. Democrats had a message which trumped ours.

McCarthy and McConnell should lose their leadership jobs over this.
They won't.
But they should.
McConnell warned you exactly what would happen and why.
McConnell regularly goes to dinner parties with Schumer, and dumped money to help Murkowski and not GOP candidates in Pennsylvania, Georgia or Nevada..

Yet he's Sam's example of the ideal Republican.
Mitch is a washington swamp monster protecting the swamp. He helped the people who would march to his drum or he let the other side of the swamp coin win.

These are the two sides of the uniparty.


Mitch was dead on with his pre election assessments .
of course he was.. he who controls the system gets the right answer
“Mix a little foolishness with your serious plans. It is lovely to be silly at the right moment.”

–Horace


“Insomnia sharpens your math skills because you spend all night calculating how much sleep you’ll get if you’re able to ‘fall asleep right now.’ “
Oldbear83
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Canada2017 said:

4th and Inches said:

Oldbear83 said:

Sam Lowry said:

whiterock said:

sombear said:

Passing along some fascinating vote info from GOP. Much of this is public by now:

* Record % of voters made up their mind the last few days.
* Record ticket-splitting - e.g., vote for GOP Gov but Dem Senate, hurting GOP in GA, NV, AZ, OH, NH
* Independents broke hard and late for Dems - almost never happens in midterm with unpopular Pres. Even pronounced in key races.
* GOP met turnout metrics.
* GOP will win popular vote by 4% with little or nothing to show for it.
* Unusually high % of voters voted against their top issue - e.g., Fetterman won majority of voters who cited crime as their top issue; Warnock leading among those saying inflation top issue.
* Suburbs hurt the GOP overall, but strong for GOP in FL, NY, TX, and a few other states.
* As I posted before the election, GOP Senate candidate quality was around -2.5%, meaning based on metrics, the entire slate of GOP candidates was 2.5% behind an average slate. I did not get breakdowns, but that likely means some of our worst GOP Senate candidates were easily -5% to -7%, which is historically bad.
* GOP House candidates were an average +2 quality. Strong slate.
* In House, outside of FL, NY, and CA (likely), GOP did good enough to make tough races close but still lose. In other words, GOP made races close where they were substantial underdogs, but could not get over the edge in races where they were close underdogs. If there were any sort of wave (which is typical with an unpopular Pres) GOP would have got the extra ~1% it needed in tens of races.
* GOP continued to improve with Hispanics, African Americans, and Asians.
* Weak Gov/Senate candidates hurt GOP House races in PA, MI, MD, NH. Zeldin, even though he lost, was huge for GOP House in NY.
* Trump disapproval among all voters was ~60%. Biden disapproval was ~55%. Trump also worse on "strong disapproval."
* Record high approval for Pelosi - due to sympathy over attack on husband. One GOP insider believes this incident had more impact than any other single recent issue, which I find hard to believe.
* About the same % of voters made their decision based on Biden (for or against) and Trump (for or against). This is unprecedented. Midterm has always been a verdict on a sitting Pres, with leading opposition figure barely on radar.


Worth noting that Romney met his turnout metrics, too. They were just the wrong metrics.

The electorate is not a static thing. A not-terribly-political single divorced woman with kids can be appealed to as a single mom, or as an unmarried career woman, or as an anti abortion voter, or as a "am I safe walking to work" voter. If Republicans pick the second best of those four things to appeal to her, you leave an opening for Democrats to appeal to the first. And that's pretty much what happened. Democrats had a message which trumped ours.

McCarthy and McConnell should lose their leadership jobs over this.
They won't.
But they should.
McConnell warned you exactly what would happen and why.
McConnell regularly goes to dinner parties with Schumer, and dumped money to help Murkowski and not GOP candidates in Pennsylvania, Georgia or Nevada..

Yet he's Sam's example of the ideal Republican.
Mitch is a washington swamp monster protecting the swamp. He helped the people who would march to his drum or he let the other side of the swamp coin win.

These are the two sides of the uniparty.


Mitch was dead on with his pre election assessments .
... because he worked to make it so.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
Canada2017
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Limited IQ Redneck in PU said:

Canada2017 said:

Limited IQ Redneck in PU said:

Canada2017 said:

Red wave magically becomes Blue .

Dems retain control of the Senate .
Dems retain governorships of Michigan, Arizona and New York.

Republicans narrowly win control of the House with a majority of less than 15 seats.





A prophet


Follow up :

A. Trump enters into a slash and burn mode against the Republican Party . Goes the 3rd party route to oblivion.

B. Dems know a good deal when they see one ….document charges against Trump get delayed . Leaving Trump to
be eligible to run for president in 2024 via his 3rd party medicine show .

C. Feds raise interest rates still again before the end of the year . Smaller increase than the previous two . Housing market crashes nationwide . Some areas drop 20-35% by May .

D. Unemployment rises to at least 7.5 % by June .

E. For the first time in decades ….malnutrition will become a reality for tens of millions of Americans.

F. Gavin Newsom becomes the Democrats political super star .
The American 'Trudeau ' takes center stage from Biden .






You are pushing it now


God, I hope so. Hope I am totally wrong .

Just got back from a long road trip to a few Indian reservations in New Mexico and Arizona.

Have never seen prices so high or the locals worse off . Could be a grim winter for many . Really grim . Covid hit these tribes really hard ….now inflation is finishing them off .
Married A Horn
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Canada2017 said:

Limited IQ Redneck in PU said:

Canada2017 said:

Limited IQ Redneck in PU said:

Canada2017 said:

Red wave magically becomes Blue .

Dems retain control of the Senate .
Dems retain governorships of Michigan, Arizona and New York.

Republicans narrowly win control of the House with a majority of less than 15 seats.





A prophet


Follow up :

A. Trump enters into a slash and burn mode against the Republican Party . Goes the 3rd party route to oblivion.

B. Dems know a good deal when they see one ….document charges against Trump get delayed . Leaving Trump to
be eligible to run for president in 2024 via his 3rd party medicine show .

C. Feds raise interest rates still again before the end of the year . Smaller increase than the previous two . Housing market crashes nationwide . Some areas drop 20-35% by May .

D. Unemployment rises to at least 7.5 % by June .

E. For the first time in decades ….malnutrition will become a reality for tens of millions of Americans.

F. Gavin Newsom becomes the Democrats political super star .
The American 'Trudeau ' takes center stage from Biden .






You are pushing it now


God, I hope so. Hope I am totally wrong .

Just got back from a long road trip to a few Indian reservations in New Mexico and Arizona.

Have never seen prices so high or the locals worse off . Could be a grim winter for many . Really grim .


We get what we deserve.
Mothra
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Canada2017 said:

Limited IQ Redneck in PU said:

Canada2017 said:

Red wave magically becomes Blue .

Dems retain control of the Senate .
Dems retain governorships of Michigan, Arizona and New York.

Republicans narrowly win control of the House with a majority of less than 15 seats.





A prophet


Follow up :

A. Trump enters into a slash and burn mode against the Republican Party . Goes the 3rd party route to oblivion.

B. Dems know a good deal when they see one ….document charges against Trump get delayed . Leaving Trump to
be eligible to run for president in 2024 via his 3rd party medicine show .

C. Feds raise interest rates still again before the end of the year . Smaller increase than the previous two . Housing market crashes nationwide . Some areas drop 20-35% by May .

D. Unemployment rises to at least 7.5 % by June .

E. For the first time in decades ….malnutrition will become a reality for tens of millions of Americans.

F. Gavin Newsom becomes the Democrats political super star .
The American 'Trudeau ' takes center stage from Biden .






All of these are plausible. I am especially concerned about A. That is exactly what he would do.
Canada2017
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Mothra said:

Canada2017 said:

Limited IQ Redneck in PU said:

Canada2017 said:

Red wave magically becomes Blue .

Dems retain control of the Senate .
Dems retain governorships of Michigan, Arizona and New York.

Republicans narrowly win control of the House with a majority of less than 15 seats.





A prophet


Follow up :

A. Trump enters into a slash and burn mode against the Republican Party . Goes the 3rd party route to oblivion.

B. Dems know a good deal when they see one ….document charges against Trump get delayed . Leaving Trump to
be eligible to run for president in 2024 via his 3rd party medicine show .

C. Feds raise interest rates still again before the end of the year . Smaller increase than the previous two . Housing market crashes nationwide . Some areas drop 20-35% by May .

D. Unemployment rises to at least 7.5 % by June .

E. For the first time in decades ….malnutrition will become a reality for tens of millions of Americans.

F. Gavin Newsom becomes the Democrats political super star .
The American 'Trudeau ' takes center stage from Biden .






All of these are plausible. I am especially concerned about A. That is exactly what he would do.


My biggest concern is E.
 
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