OFFICIAL ELECTION THREAD, 11-8-22

42,007 Views | 1063 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by whiterock
sombear
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Redbrickbear said:

whiterock said:

Osodecentx said:

ATL Bear said:

Osodecentx said:

How did Kari Lake perform in Maricopa County, AZ, specifically, compared with other Republicans?
Ms. Lake received 77,342 fewer votes than GOP state Treasurer Kimberly Yee.
Ms. Lake received 39,165 fewer votes than the combined GOP U.S. House candidates.
Ms. Lake received 23,901 fewer votes than GOP county prosecutor Rachel Mitchell.
These figures are especially striking because voter interest wanes down the ballot. Compared with the Governor's race, 78,000 fewer people voted for local prosecutor. Yet Ms. Mitchell still won more raw ballots than Ms. Lake.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/kari-lake-is-the-new-stacey-abrams-arizona-gubernatorial-election-11669849107

This is the break that the Trumpists conveniently ignore. It's all over the place.
From WaPo
Democrats padded their Senate majority on Tuesday night thanks in part to a rebuke of the Republican candidate in Georgia's suburbs.

Turnout was somewhat lower in Tuesday's runoff than in the November general election, by about 400,000 voters, but Sen. Raphael G. Warnock (D) more than doubled his lead over Republican Herschel Walker. The Democrat led by about 95,000 votes as of Wednesday, besting his 37,000-vote margin in the general election.
again, runoffs are tests of turnout. the party with the best ground game tends to win runoffs.


Exatcly,

And Democrats have had a better ground game than the GOP for a while now.
Simply not true. GOP turned out. GOP exceeded projections. Dems did not. Blaming the RNC and state parties is a convenient excuse for Trump apologists.

Now, it's fair to discuss EV strategies, but that's tough for a Trump apologist when, for two years, Trump has directly and indirectly told supporters to wait until election day.
Redbrickbear
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sombear said:

Redbrickbear said:

sombear said:

Whiterock, you keep referring to GA GOP infighting being a problem, yet the GA GOP won everything, literally everything, except Walker. And Kemp is one of the 5 most popular governors in the country. Trump started a GA fight in 2020, and it hurt the party and country badly, but everyone but Trump moved on.
If everyone moved on then how did Trump cause so much problems in Georgia?

People on here act like he has the personal power to chose the GOP candidate for Senate in Georgia.

Walker had to win a primary vote among the GOP faithful.
You're nowhere near that naive. Trump targeted and handpicked Walker from the beginning and pressured others not to challenge him. That's why he had no serious challenger. That's not in dispute.

Trouble Trump caused? Very simple: Major trouble in 2020 costing us 2 Senate seats, then hand-picking Walker and keeping others away. GA GOP tried to play nice by going along with Walker, and now we have 6 years of Warnock.

You're seriously doubting whether Trump had the "personal power" to select primary candidates? His hand-picked and primary-endorsed candidates won virtually every major primary - AZ, NH, GA, OH, NV, and PA. Trump's problem has not been influencing primaries . . . it's what happens subsequently . . . .
It took more than just a Trump endorsement to for those candidates to win those primaries.

I never have said that Trump does not have influence in GOP primaries (all former Presidents, of whatever party, have influence by virtue of being President)

But lets not act like he is Lord and Dictator of every Republican voter or every State GOP....or that everyone he endorses has to win the primary.

Osodecentx
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whiterock said:

Osodecentx said:

Redbrickbear said:

Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:

ATL Bear said:

Osodecentx said:

How did Kari Lake perform in Maricopa County, AZ, specifically, compared with other Republicans?
Ms. Lake received 77,342 fewer votes than GOP state Treasurer Kimberly Yee.
Ms. Lake received 39,165 fewer votes than the combined GOP U.S. House candidates.
Ms. Lake received 23,901 fewer votes than GOP county prosecutor Rachel Mitchell.
These figures are especially striking because voter interest wanes down the ballot. Compared with the Governor's race, 78,000 fewer people voted for local prosecutor. Yet Ms. Mitchell still won more raw ballots than Ms. Lake.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/kari-lake-is-the-new-stacey-abrams-arizona-gubernatorial-election-11669849107

This is the break that the Trumpists conveniently ignore. It's all over the place.
and how much of that undervote was McCain faction crossover? people just leaving the race blank.

AZ, like GA, has a serious problem with state GOP infighting. Liz Cheney spent $500k in AZ against Lake, and actually went out on the campaign trail with some Democrat House members in close races.

She also campaigned in AZ against Lake. Note the banner behind her. Even heard her criticizing Ted Cruz for helping the GOP ticket in AZ.
https://arizonadailyindependent.com/2022/10/05/cheney-mccain-institute-campaign-event-at-asu-raises-legality-questions/

That's flagrant party establishment working to defeat party candidates in general elections solely for the purpose of restoring themselves to power in the party.

It is fundamentally unserious to assert that party in-fighting has no effect on mid-term elections. Cheney (to whom some here have donated funds that were spent in AZ and elsewhere to defeat Republicans) literally worked to defeat Trump endorsed candidates, then (ike several here) turned around after the mid-terms and blamed Trump for the losses. That is intellectual dishonest of the highest order.
Greatness. Liz kicked Trump's ass. She also spent more money in AZ than Trump.

Sounds like some here contributed to a winner

Liz literally got throw out of office by her constituents....she didn't kick Trumps ass....he is not even in office.

Now she may or may not have contributed to Mrs. Lakes loss in Arizona....but of course Mrs. Lake is not Trump so there was no reason for her to work against the chosen Republican candidate for office except that Liz hates any populist conservative candidate and wants the party to return and be the sole owned property of the Bush-Cheney corporatist wing.
Whiterock blames Liz for the defeat of Trump candidates. If you disagree, take it up with white rock
Pointing out the well-known (that the McCain wing of the AZ party is at war with the grassroots (Kelly Ward) wing of the party) is not ascribing 100% blame to a single factor. Pointing out that the McCain Foundation hosted Cheney AFTER she pledged to defeat Ward and spent some of your money to do it is not ascribing 100% of the blame. Pointing out that party infighting results in undervote and crossover voting is not ascribing 100% of the blame. It is, however, pointing out several things that do matter a lot in a close race. And that's before we get to the matter of election day issues which in any other context would be conceded as a material factor that suppressed vote totals, Dem mail-in voting machinery, etc......

You are the one attempting to ascribe 100% of the blame to a single factor.
Lake went after McCain and the McCain wing of the party. Since I'm not a Republican, my concern is not the electoral success of fringe GOP candidates.

Sounds to me like you blame Liz for Lake's defeat. From your earlier post:

Liz Cheney spent $500k in AZ against Lake, and actually went out on the campaign trail with some Democrat House members in close races.


She also campaigned in AZ against Lake. Note the banner behind her. Even heard her criticizing Ted Cruz for helping the GOP ticket in AZ.
Osodecentx
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sombear said:

Whiterock, you keep referring to GA GOP infighting being a problem, yet the GA GOP won everything, literally everything, except Walker. And Kemp is one of the 5 most popular governors in the country. Trump started a GA fight in 2020, and it hurt the party and country badly, but everyone but Trump moved on.
Good post. In support:

Georgia's Republican Gov. Brian Kemp won re-election last month by 7.5 points. Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger won re-election by 9.2. Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker lost his Tuesday runoff by 2.7. Neither Mr. Kemp nor Mr. Raffensperger was a Donald Trump ally; both resisted his demands to alter the state's 2020 election tally. Mr. Walker was handpicked by Mr. Trump, and all in on his issues.

The GOP is strong in the Peach Tree State; its turnout in November was high. But the party is full of Republicans and conservatives who won't back strange and unqualified candidates simply because they have the Trump imprimatur. Some were repelled by that imprimatur.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/only-the-voters-can-crush-donald-trump-2024-primary-field-georgia-reagan-establishment-11670535597
sombear
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Redbrickbear said:

sombear said:

Redbrickbear said:

sombear said:

Whiterock, you keep referring to GA GOP infighting being a problem, yet the GA GOP won everything, literally everything, except Walker. And Kemp is one of the 5 most popular governors in the country. Trump started a GA fight in 2020, and it hurt the party and country badly, but everyone but Trump moved on.
If everyone moved on then how did Trump cause so much problems in Georgia?

People on here act like he has the personal power to chose the GOP candidate for Senate in Georgia.

Walker had to win a primary vote among the GOP faithful.
You're nowhere near that naive. Trump targeted and handpicked Walker from the beginning and pressured others not to challenge him. That's why he had no serious challenger. That's not in dispute.

Trouble Trump caused? Very simple: Major trouble in 2020 costing us 2 Senate seats, then hand-picking Walker and keeping others away. GA GOP tried to play nice by going along with Walker, and now we have 6 years of Warnock.

You're seriously doubting whether Trump had the "personal power" to select primary candidates? His hand-picked and primary-endorsed candidates won virtually every major primary - AZ, NH, GA, OH, NV, and PA. Trump's problem has not been influencing primaries . . . it's what happens subsequently . . . .
It took more than just a Trump endorsement to for those candidates to win those primaries.

I never have said that Trump does not have influence in GOP primaries (all former Presidents, of whatever party, have influence by virtue of being President)

But lets not act like he is Lord and Dictator of every Republican voter or every State GOP....or that everyone he endorses has to win the primary.


So, I guess you disagree with Trump himself, who has bragged for years that all his primary endorsements win. He has repeatedly called himself "the king of endorsements" and his self-proclaimed win rate is 98%.

Look, I wish it would have been otherwise, but the fact is, Trump had tremendous influence over primary voters. The proof was in the pudding. How many examples can you think of where a Trump endorsed Senate candidate lost? Alabama, sort of, where Trump bailed early on his original endorsement.

Governor? Kemp.

House? Very few.

Are you suggesting that other former Presidents (either party) had anywhere near the influence Trump did? I cannot think of any examples. In fact, most former Presidents rarely get involved in primaries in the first place.
Oldbear83
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So you are cheering a Republican who directly worked to get Democrats elected.

Says a lot, that.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
Redbrickbear
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Oldbear83 said:

So you are cheering a Republican who directly worked to get Democrats elected.

Says a lot, that.
That is the entire Bush-Cheney wing of the Republican party.

And rather than be ashamed they are proud of that.

And there are white collar upper class Baylor guys who think that means "being principled"

I'm not sure what to even say at this point about these scumbags.
Redbrickbear
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[The problems facing the GOP in states such as Georgia are more fundamental than "candidate quality".]

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/not-a-peachy-night-for-republicans-in-georgia/
Osodecentx
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Redbrickbear said:

Oldbear83 said:

So you are cheering a Republican who directly worked to get Democrats elected.

Says a lot, that.
That is the entire Bush-Cheney wing of the Republican party.

And rather than be ashamed they are proud of that.

And there are white collar upper class Baylor guys who think that means "being principled"

I'm not sure what to even say at this point about these scumbags.


I'm not a Republican so I can be principled
Oldbear83
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Osodecentx said:

Redbrickbear said:

Oldbear83 said:

So you are cheering a Republican who directly worked to get Democrats elected.

Says a lot, that.
That is the entire Bush-Cheney wing of the Republican party.

And rather than be ashamed they are proud of that.

And there are white collar upper class Baylor guys who think that means "being principled"

I'm not sure what to even say at this point about these scumbags.


I'm not a Republican so I can be principled

Not much principle to what I have seen this year in your political posts, Oso.

By the way, how is Satan these days? I haven't seen him since I stopped watching CNN.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
Osodecentx
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Redbrickbear said:

[The problems facing the GOP in states such as Georgia are more fundamental than "candidate quality".]

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/not-a-peachy-night-for-republicans-in-georgia/
In Georgia every statewide Republican won, except 1. The Georgia GOP had a problem alright.
Sam Lowry
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whiterock said:

sombear said:

Exactly. Trump poisoned the GOP well in 2020. Turnout numbers were way down thanks to Trump splitting the party, attacking Kemp and the state GOP, and flat discouraging folks from voting.

This is not to say that GA is an overwhelmingly red state. It is not. But it should be more like NC - GOP consistently winning by narrow margins with the occasional Dem moderate win. Kemp's election, congressional, and local races (and general polling) demonstrate this. As I posted before the election and again this week, an "unnamed/hypothetical" Republican polled better than HW. An average candidate would have beat Warnock. In the first election, over 200,000 Republicans voted Republican except for Walker, and the margin was Warnock by around 37,000.

HW was the only GOP statewide candidate to lose.

GOP by far got more total votes in combined congressional, state senate, and state house races.

Every GA state/fed candidate that Trump explicitly endorsed lost their primary, except two. Of those two, one lost in the general (HW), the other (B Jones) won but underperformed every other statewide GOP candidate except HW.
Part in bold supports my comment above about party infighting in GA. The party establishment is more worried about being "too conservative" than about getting conservatives elected. Spent several hours over a few nights around a campfire with a significant GA donor. Good dude. Kemp fan. And like the majority of GOP donors, quite verkrampte toward the ideological side of politics. Common problem with Republican businessmen. They are far more concerned with "good governance" than conservatism, and are more correctly understood as "not liberals" than "conservatives." that in & of itself wouldn't be so much of a problem were the "not liberal" donor more tolerant of movement conservatives. As a rule, they are not. Ergo the problem.

Example of problems in GA GOP: Perdue (an incumbent) got more votes than Ossof in the general election, but lost the runoff. Runoff elections are supposed to favor the party with the most registrations and/or the best ground (turnout) operation. Normally, the party with the most registrations also has the best ground operation. In GA, that is clearly not the case. Dems have a superior GOTV machine that transforms a red state at the county level to a Purple state in a statewide election. THAT is on Kemp. THAT is on the GA GOP. GOP moderates do not want to let GOP conservatives gain control over the party. Exhibit A, as has been noted by others, is Kemp's selection of Loffler, a non-native to GA, to freeze out Collins, from the conservative wing of the party and who led the House defense of Trump during impeachment.

Not trying to lay everything on Kemp. Insisting on balance. There are a lot of reasons why GA has two Senators and Trump is not exactly the lion's share of it. There is no excuse whatsoever for a Republican losing a runoff in GA. It should be a layup for the party with the most registrations and best ground-game. GA GOP is being very poorly led.


Conservatives have always had to contend with "not liberals." Why make it more difficult by choosing candidates who are so unqualified and unconcerned with good governance that even many conservatives are leery of them?

If only there were some obvious solution...
Sam Lowry
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Redbrickbear said:

Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:

ATL Bear said:

Osodecentx said:

How did Kari Lake perform in Maricopa County, AZ, specifically, compared with other Republicans?
Ms. Lake received 77,342 fewer votes than GOP state Treasurer Kimberly Yee.
Ms. Lake received 39,165 fewer votes than the combined GOP U.S. House candidates.
Ms. Lake received 23,901 fewer votes than GOP county prosecutor Rachel Mitchell.
These figures are especially striking because voter interest wanes down the ballot. Compared with the Governor's race, 78,000 fewer people voted for local prosecutor. Yet Ms. Mitchell still won more raw ballots than Ms. Lake.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/kari-lake-is-the-new-stacey-abrams-arizona-gubernatorial-election-11669849107

This is the break that the Trumpists conveniently ignore. It's all over the place.
and how much of that undervote was McCain faction crossover? people just leaving the race blank.

AZ, like GA, has a serious problem with state GOP infighting. Liz Cheney spent $500k in AZ against Lake, and actually went out on the campaign trail with some Democrat House members in close races.

She also campaigned in AZ against Lake. Note the banner behind her. Even heard her criticizing Ted Cruz for helping the GOP ticket in AZ.
https://arizonadailyindependent.com/2022/10/05/cheney-mccain-institute-campaign-event-at-asu-raises-legality-questions/

That's flagrant party establishment working to defeat party candidates in general elections solely for the purpose of restoring themselves to power in the party.

It is fundamentally unserious to assert that party in-fighting has no effect on mid-term elections. Cheney (to whom some here have donated funds that were spent in AZ and elsewhere to defeat Republicans) literally worked to defeat Trump endorsed candidates, then (ike several here) turned around after the mid-terms and blamed Trump for the losses. That is intellectual dishonest of the highest order.
Greatness. Liz kicked Trump's ass. She also spent more money in AZ than Trump.

Sounds like some here contributed to a winner

Liz literally got throw out of office by her constituents....she didn't kick Trumps ass....he is not even in office.

Now she may or may not have contributed to Mrs. Lakes loss in Arizona....but of course Mrs. Lake is not Trump so there was no reason for her to work against the chosen Republican candidate for office except that Liz hates any populist conservative candidate and wants the party to return and be the sole owned property of the Bush-Cheney corporatist wing.
Even now you don't see the reason? Cheney is committed to keeping Trump out of office. Midterm losses by Trump candidates took a lot of wind out of his sails.
Oldbear83
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Cheney is determined to destroy the GOP.

And she's started with an impressive effort.

That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
ATL Bear
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Redbrickbear said:

[The problems facing the GOP in states such as Georgia are more fundamental than "candidate quality".]

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/not-a-peachy-night-for-republicans-in-georgia/
The Trumpist lack of awareness is mind boggling. They so don't want the "bad candidate" issue to be reality because their favorite guy is a monumental **** show, and they know it. They even play the ruse of "don't want him as the candidate, but…" while seeking out some sort of emotional vindication for his failures in the most Trump of ways. Blaming everyone and everything else.

The reality is the non Trump candidates did better not only in Red districts, they even did better in blue ones, which is a vote compounding advantage because of the number of votes cast in those.





whiterock
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Osodecentx said:

Redbrickbear said:

Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:

ATL Bear said:

Osodecentx said:

How did Kari Lake perform in Maricopa County, AZ, specifically, compared with other Republicans?
Ms. Lake received 77,342 fewer votes than GOP state Treasurer Kimberly Yee.
Ms. Lake received 39,165 fewer votes than the combined GOP U.S. House candidates.
Ms. Lake received 23,901 fewer votes than GOP county prosecutor Rachel Mitchell.
These figures are especially striking because voter interest wanes down the ballot. Compared with the Governor's race, 78,000 fewer people voted for local prosecutor. Yet Ms. Mitchell still won more raw ballots than Ms. Lake.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/kari-lake-is-the-new-stacey-abrams-arizona-gubernatorial-election-11669849107

This is the break that the Trumpists conveniently ignore. It's all over the place.
and how much of that undervote was McCain faction crossover? people just leaving the race blank.

AZ, like GA, has a serious problem with state GOP infighting. Liz Cheney spent $500k in AZ against Lake, and actually went out on the campaign trail with some Democrat House members in close races.

She also campaigned in AZ against Lake. Note the banner behind her. Even heard her criticizing Ted Cruz for helping the GOP ticket in AZ.
https://arizonadailyindependent.com/2022/10/05/cheney-mccain-institute-campaign-event-at-asu-raises-legality-questions/

That's flagrant party establishment working to defeat party candidates in general elections solely for the purpose of restoring themselves to power in the party.

It is fundamentally unserious to assert that party in-fighting has no effect on mid-term elections. Cheney (to whom some here have donated funds that were spent in AZ and elsewhere to defeat Republicans) literally worked to defeat Trump endorsed candidates, then (ike several here) turned around after the mid-terms and blamed Trump for the losses. That is intellectual dishonest of the highest order.
Greatness. Liz kicked Trump's ass. She also spent more money in AZ than Trump.

Sounds like some here contributed to a winner

Liz literally got throw out of office by her constituents....she didn't kick Trumps ass....he is not even in office.

Now she may or may not have contributed to Mrs. Lakes loss in Arizona....but of course Mrs. Lake is not Trump so there was no reason for her to work against the chosen Republican candidate for office except that Liz hates any populist conservative candidate and wants the party to return and be the sole owned property of the Bush-Cheney corporatist wing.
Whiterock blames Liz for the defeat of Trump candidates. If you disagree, take it up with white rock
Let's see how your nonsense stands up against numbers.

There are 1.4m registered Republicans in AZ.
if only 2% are neverTrumpers/McCainiacs who don't even cross over but just undervote, that's 28k votes.
Lake lost by 17k votes.
The McCainiacs and neverTrumpers most definitely exceed 2% of the AZ GOP.
So yes, you share direct responsibility for Lake's defeat.

If we apply that same analysis to the AZ Senate race:
Masters lost by 125k votes.
If 10% of the AZ GOP are McCaniacs/neverTrumpers, that's 140k votes.
10% is probably a minimum share in AZ of McCaniacs and neverTrumpers.

It should not be surprising that party insurgencies matter in a close race.
You own it, buddy.
Be proud.
.
.
.
.
(I used AZ because the data is harder. In GA voter registration is non-partisan. As a rule, the closer the registration totals are, the more amplified the effect of in-fighting within a party. Very small insurgents can easily be the difference in very close races. Polling suggests that Dems/GOP are roughly equal in "party affiliation" so GA. And, of course, runoff elections are pure turnout exercises. People have already voted. It's only a question of will they vote twice. Partisans are much more likely to turnout than independents in such a scenario. So when you see Warnock increase his total in the runoff, it means that his turnout machine was better, as the "independent effect" is much reduced in a runoff. GA GOP has SERIOUS problems on multiple levels. And a GOP governor who is either not working the problem, or not being effective at it. But GOP neverTrumpers easily were the difference in GA. It's just a lot harder to quantify.)
Osodecentx
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whiterock said:

Osodecentx said:

Redbrickbear said:

Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:

ATL Bear said:

Osodecentx said:

How did Kari Lake perform in Maricopa County, AZ, specifically, compared with other Republicans?
Ms. Lake received 77,342 fewer votes than GOP state Treasurer Kimberly Yee.
Ms. Lake received 39,165 fewer votes than the combined GOP U.S. House candidates.
Ms. Lake received 23,901 fewer votes than GOP county prosecutor Rachel Mitchell.
These figures are especially striking because voter interest wanes down the ballot. Compared with the Governor's race, 78,000 fewer people voted for local prosecutor. Yet Ms. Mitchell still won more raw ballots than Ms. Lake.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/kari-lake-is-the-new-stacey-abrams-arizona-gubernatorial-election-11669849107

This is the break that the Trumpists conveniently ignore. It's all over the place.
and how much of that undervote was McCain faction crossover? people just leaving the race blank.

AZ, like GA, has a serious problem with state GOP infighting. Liz Cheney spent $500k in AZ against Lake, and actually went out on the campaign trail with some Democrat House members in close races.

She also campaigned in AZ against Lake. Note the banner behind her. Even heard her criticizing Ted Cruz for helping the GOP ticket in AZ.
https://arizonadailyindependent.com/2022/10/05/cheney-mccain-institute-campaign-event-at-asu-raises-legality-questions/

That's flagrant party establishment working to defeat party candidates in general elections solely for the purpose of restoring themselves to power in the party.

It is fundamentally unserious to assert that party in-fighting has no effect on mid-term elections. Cheney (to whom some here have donated funds that were spent in AZ and elsewhere to defeat Republicans) literally worked to defeat Trump endorsed candidates, then (ike several here) turned around after the mid-terms and blamed Trump for the losses. That is intellectual dishonest of the highest order.
Greatness. Liz kicked Trump's ass. She also spent more money in AZ than Trump.

Sounds like some here contributed to a winner

Liz literally got throw out of office by her constituents....she didn't kick Trumps ass....he is not even in office.

Now she may or may not have contributed to Mrs. Lakes loss in Arizona....but of course Mrs. Lake is not Trump so there was no reason for her to work against the chosen Republican candidate for office except that Liz hates any populist conservative candidate and wants the party to return and be the sole owned property of the Bush-Cheney corporatist wing.
Whiterock blames Liz for the defeat of Trump candidates. If you disagree, take it up with white rock
Let's see how your nonsense stands up against numbers.

There are 1.4m registered Republicans in AZ.
if only 2% are neverTrumpers/McCainiacs who don't even cross over but just undervote, that's 28k votes.
Lake lost by 17k votes.
The McCainiacs and neverTrumpers most definitely exceed 2% of the AZ GOP.
So yes, you share direct responsibility for Lake's defeat.

If we apply that same analysis to the AZ Senate race:
Masters lost by 125k votes.
If 10% of the AZ GOP are McCaniacs/neverTrumpers, that's 140k votes.
10% is probably a minimum share in AZ of McCaniacs and neverTrumpers.

It should not be surprising that party insurgencies matter in a close race.
You own it, buddy.
Be proud.
.
.
.
.
(I used AZ because the data is harder. In GA voter registration is non-partisan. As a rule, the closer the registration totals are, the more amplified the effect of in-fighting within a party. Very small insurgents can easily be the difference in very close races. Polling suggests that Dems/GOP are roughly equal in "party affiliation" so GA. And, of course, runoff elections are pure turnout exercises. People have already voted. It's only a question of will they vote twice. Partisans are much more likely to turnout than independents in such a scenario. So when you see Warnock increase his total in the runoff, it means that his turnout machine was better, as the "independent effect" is much reduced in a runoff. GA GOP has SERIOUS problems on multiple levels. And a GOP governor who is either not working the problem, or not being effective at it. But GOP neverTrumpers easily were the difference in GA. It's just a lot harder to quantify.)

Sounds like we agree: Liz kicked Trump's ass in AZ. She gave more money than Trump and actually showed up there. Lake went out of her way to insult an Arizona icon when she was in a close race.

I am proud. I vote independent, but I want 2 healthy parties so I'll have choices. Lake is a fringe candidate who thought Trump won the presidency in 2020.

You back all of Trump's substandard candidates and then blame everyone else when they lose.
You own Fetterman & Warnock.
whiterock
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Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:

Osodecentx said:

Redbrickbear said:

Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:

ATL Bear said:

Osodecentx said:

How did Kari Lake perform in Maricopa County, AZ, specifically, compared with other Republicans?
Ms. Lake received 77,342 fewer votes than GOP state Treasurer Kimberly Yee.
Ms. Lake received 39,165 fewer votes than the combined GOP U.S. House candidates.
Ms. Lake received 23,901 fewer votes than GOP county prosecutor Rachel Mitchell.
These figures are especially striking because voter interest wanes down the ballot. Compared with the Governor's race, 78,000 fewer people voted for local prosecutor. Yet Ms. Mitchell still won more raw ballots than Ms. Lake.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/kari-lake-is-the-new-stacey-abrams-arizona-gubernatorial-election-11669849107

This is the break that the Trumpists conveniently ignore. It's all over the place.
and how much of that undervote was McCain faction crossover? people just leaving the race blank.

AZ, like GA, has a serious problem with state GOP infighting. Liz Cheney spent $500k in AZ against Lake, and actually went out on the campaign trail with some Democrat House members in close races.

She also campaigned in AZ against Lake. Note the banner behind her. Even heard her criticizing Ted Cruz for helping the GOP ticket in AZ.
https://arizonadailyindependent.com/2022/10/05/cheney-mccain-institute-campaign-event-at-asu-raises-legality-questions/

That's flagrant party establishment working to defeat party candidates in general elections solely for the purpose of restoring themselves to power in the party.

It is fundamentally unserious to assert that party in-fighting has no effect on mid-term elections. Cheney (to whom some here have donated funds that were spent in AZ and elsewhere to defeat Republicans) literally worked to defeat Trump endorsed candidates, then (ike several here) turned around after the mid-terms and blamed Trump for the losses. That is intellectual dishonest of the highest order.
Greatness. Liz kicked Trump's ass. She also spent more money in AZ than Trump.

Sounds like some here contributed to a winner

Liz literally got throw out of office by her constituents....she didn't kick Trumps ass....he is not even in office.

Now she may or may not have contributed to Mrs. Lakes loss in Arizona....but of course Mrs. Lake is not Trump so there was no reason for her to work against the chosen Republican candidate for office except that Liz hates any populist conservative candidate and wants the party to return and be the sole owned property of the Bush-Cheney corporatist wing.
Whiterock blames Liz for the defeat of Trump candidates. If you disagree, take it up with white rock
Let's see how your nonsense stands up against numbers.

There are 1.4m registered Republicans in AZ.
if only 2% are neverTrumpers/McCainiacs who don't even cross over but just undervote, that's 28k votes.
Lake lost by 17k votes.
The McCainiacs and neverTrumpers most definitely exceed 2% of the AZ GOP.
So yes, you share direct responsibility for Lake's defeat.

If we apply that same analysis to the AZ Senate race:
Masters lost by 125k votes.
If 10% of the AZ GOP are McCaniacs/neverTrumpers, that's 140k votes.
10% is probably a minimum share in AZ of McCaniacs and neverTrumpers.

It should not be surprising that party insurgencies matter in a close race.
You own it, buddy.
Be proud.
.
.
.
.
(I used AZ because the data is harder. In GA voter registration is non-partisan. As a rule, the closer the registration totals are, the more amplified the effect of in-fighting within a party. Very small insurgents can easily be the difference in very close races. Polling suggests that Dems/GOP are roughly equal in "party affiliation" so GA. And, of course, runoff elections are pure turnout exercises. People have already voted. It's only a question of will they vote twice. Partisans are much more likely to turnout than independents in such a scenario. So when you see Warnock increase his total in the runoff, it means that his turnout machine was better, as the "independent effect" is much reduced in a runoff. GA GOP has SERIOUS problems on multiple levels. And a GOP governor who is either not working the problem, or not being effective at it. But GOP neverTrumpers easily were the difference in GA. It's just a lot harder to quantify.)

Sounds like we agree: Liz kicked Trump's ass in AZ. She gave more money than Trump and actually showed up there. Lake went out of her way to insult an Arizona icon when she was in a close race.

I am proud. I vote independent, but I want 2 healthy parties so I'll have choices. Lake is a fringe candidate who thought Trump won the presidency in 2020.

You back all of Trump's substandard candidates and then blame everyone else when they lose.
You own Fetterman & Warnock.

I blame the people responsible, and we know who they are, for they virtue posture relentlessly about it, right there in big, bold letters.



One deems oneself too good to stand with Republicans, so will be ruled by Democrats, and then blame Republicans.
Osodecentx
How long do you want to ignore this user?
whiterock said:

Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:

Osodecentx said:

Redbrickbear said:

Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:

ATL Bear said:

Osodecentx said:

How did Kari Lake perform in Maricopa County, AZ, specifically, compared with other Republicans?
Ms. Lake received 77,342 fewer votes than GOP state Treasurer Kimberly Yee.
Ms. Lake received 39,165 fewer votes than the combined GOP U.S. House candidates.
Ms. Lake received 23,901 fewer votes than GOP county prosecutor Rachel Mitchell.
These figures are especially striking because voter interest wanes down the ballot. Compared with the Governor's race, 78,000 fewer people voted for local prosecutor. Yet Ms. Mitchell still won more raw ballots than Ms. Lake.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/kari-lake-is-the-new-stacey-abrams-arizona-gubernatorial-election-11669849107

This is the break that the Trumpists conveniently ignore. It's all over the place.
and how much of that undervote was McCain faction crossover? people just leaving the race blank.

AZ, like GA, has a serious problem with state GOP infighting. Liz Cheney spent $500k in AZ against Lake, and actually went out on the campaign trail with some Democrat House members in close races.

She also campaigned in AZ against Lake. Note the banner behind her. Even heard her criticizing Ted Cruz for helping the GOP ticket in AZ.
https://arizonadailyindependent.com/2022/10/05/cheney-mccain-institute-campaign-event-at-asu-raises-legality-questions/

That's flagrant party establishment working to defeat party candidates in general elections solely for the purpose of restoring themselves to power in the party.

It is fundamentally unserious to assert that party in-fighting has no effect on mid-term elections. Cheney (to whom some here have donated funds that were spent in AZ and elsewhere to defeat Republicans) literally worked to defeat Trump endorsed candidates, then (ike several here) turned around after the mid-terms and blamed Trump for the losses. That is intellectual dishonest of the highest order.
Greatness. Liz kicked Trump's ass. She also spent more money in AZ than Trump.

Sounds like some here contributed to a winner

Liz literally got throw out of office by her constituents....she didn't kick Trumps ass....he is not even in office.

Now she may or may not have contributed to Mrs. Lakes loss in Arizona....but of course Mrs. Lake is not Trump so there was no reason for her to work against the chosen Republican candidate for office except that Liz hates any populist conservative candidate and wants the party to return and be the sole owned property of the Bush-Cheney corporatist wing.
Whiterock blames Liz for the defeat of Trump candidates. If you disagree, take it up with white rock
Let's see how your nonsense stands up against numbers.

There are 1.4m registered Republicans in AZ.
if only 2% are neverTrumpers/McCainiacs who don't even cross over but just undervote, that's 28k votes.
Lake lost by 17k votes.
The McCainiacs and neverTrumpers most definitely exceed 2% of the AZ GOP.
So yes, you share direct responsibility for Lake's defeat.

If we apply that same analysis to the AZ Senate race:
Masters lost by 125k votes.
If 10% of the AZ GOP are McCaniacs/neverTrumpers, that's 140k votes.
10% is probably a minimum share in AZ of McCaniacs and neverTrumpers.

It should not be surprising that party insurgencies matter in a close race.
You own it, buddy.
Be proud.
.
.
.
.
(I used AZ because the data is harder. In GA voter registration is non-partisan. As a rule, the closer the registration totals are, the more amplified the effect of in-fighting within a party. Very small insurgents can easily be the difference in very close races. Polling suggests that Dems/GOP are roughly equal in "party affiliation" so GA. And, of course, runoff elections are pure turnout exercises. People have already voted. It's only a question of will they vote twice. Partisans are much more likely to turnout than independents in such a scenario. So when you see Warnock increase his total in the runoff, it means that his turnout machine was better, as the "independent effect" is much reduced in a runoff. GA GOP has SERIOUS problems on multiple levels. And a GOP governor who is either not working the problem, or not being effective at it. But GOP neverTrumpers easily were the difference in GA. It's just a lot harder to quantify.)

Sounds like we agree: Liz kicked Trump's ass in AZ. She gave more money than Trump and actually showed up there. Lake went out of her way to insult an Arizona icon when she was in a close race.

I am proud. I vote independent, but I want 2 healthy parties so I'll have choices. Lake is a fringe candidate who thought Trump won the presidency in 2020.

You back all of Trump's substandard candidates and then blame everyone else when they lose.
You own Fetterman & Warnock.

I blame the people responsible, and we know who they are, for they virtue posture relentlessly about it
Well, let's just terminate the Constitution so the right people win
whiterock
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:

Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:

Osodecentx said:

Redbrickbear said:

Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:

ATL Bear said:

Osodecentx said:

How did Kari Lake perform in Maricopa County, AZ, specifically, compared with other Republicans?
Ms. Lake received 77,342 fewer votes than GOP state Treasurer Kimberly Yee.
Ms. Lake received 39,165 fewer votes than the combined GOP U.S. House candidates.
Ms. Lake received 23,901 fewer votes than GOP county prosecutor Rachel Mitchell.
These figures are especially striking because voter interest wanes down the ballot. Compared with the Governor's race, 78,000 fewer people voted for local prosecutor. Yet Ms. Mitchell still won more raw ballots than Ms. Lake.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/kari-lake-is-the-new-stacey-abrams-arizona-gubernatorial-election-11669849107

This is the break that the Trumpists conveniently ignore. It's all over the place.
and how much of that undervote was McCain faction crossover? people just leaving the race blank.

AZ, like GA, has a serious problem with state GOP infighting. Liz Cheney spent $500k in AZ against Lake, and actually went out on the campaign trail with some Democrat House members in close races.

She also campaigned in AZ against Lake. Note the banner behind her. Even heard her criticizing Ted Cruz for helping the GOP ticket in AZ.
https://arizonadailyindependent.com/2022/10/05/cheney-mccain-institute-campaign-event-at-asu-raises-legality-questions/

That's flagrant party establishment working to defeat party candidates in general elections solely for the purpose of restoring themselves to power in the party.

It is fundamentally unserious to assert that party in-fighting has no effect on mid-term elections. Cheney (to whom some here have donated funds that were spent in AZ and elsewhere to defeat Republicans) literally worked to defeat Trump endorsed candidates, then (ike several here) turned around after the mid-terms and blamed Trump for the losses. That is intellectual dishonest of the highest order.
Greatness. Liz kicked Trump's ass. She also spent more money in AZ than Trump.

Sounds like some here contributed to a winner

Liz literally got throw out of office by her constituents....she didn't kick Trumps ass....he is not even in office.

Now she may or may not have contributed to Mrs. Lakes loss in Arizona....but of course Mrs. Lake is not Trump so there was no reason for her to work against the chosen Republican candidate for office except that Liz hates any populist conservative candidate and wants the party to return and be the sole owned property of the Bush-Cheney corporatist wing.
Whiterock blames Liz for the defeat of Trump candidates. If you disagree, take it up with white rock
Let's see how your nonsense stands up against numbers.

There are 1.4m registered Republicans in AZ.
if only 2% are neverTrumpers/McCainiacs who don't even cross over but just undervote, that's 28k votes.
Lake lost by 17k votes.
The McCainiacs and neverTrumpers most definitely exceed 2% of the AZ GOP.
So yes, you share direct responsibility for Lake's defeat.

If we apply that same analysis to the AZ Senate race:
Masters lost by 125k votes.
If 10% of the AZ GOP are McCaniacs/neverTrumpers, that's 140k votes.
10% is probably a minimum share in AZ of McCaniacs and neverTrumpers.

It should not be surprising that party insurgencies matter in a close race.
You own it, buddy.
Be proud.
.
.
.
.
(I used AZ because the data is harder. In GA voter registration is non-partisan. As a rule, the closer the registration totals are, the more amplified the effect of in-fighting within a party. Very small insurgents can easily be the difference in very close races. Polling suggests that Dems/GOP are roughly equal in "party affiliation" so GA. And, of course, runoff elections are pure turnout exercises. People have already voted. It's only a question of will they vote twice. Partisans are much more likely to turnout than independents in such a scenario. So when you see Warnock increase his total in the runoff, it means that his turnout machine was better, as the "independent effect" is much reduced in a runoff. GA GOP has SERIOUS problems on multiple levels. And a GOP governor who is either not working the problem, or not being effective at it. But GOP neverTrumpers easily were the difference in GA. It's just a lot harder to quantify.)

Sounds like we agree: Liz kicked Trump's ass in AZ. She gave more money than Trump and actually showed up there. Lake went out of her way to insult an Arizona icon when she was in a close race.

I am proud. I vote independent, but I want 2 healthy parties so I'll have choices. Lake is a fringe candidate who thought Trump won the presidency in 2020.

You back all of Trump's substandard candidates and then blame everyone else when they lose.
You own Fetterman & Warnock.

I blame the people responsible, and we know who they are, for they virtue posture relentlessly about it
Well, let's just terminate the Constitution so the right people win.
No need to get your hands greasy turning wrenches on that. Democrats are hard at work on it every day. All you have to do is help them win elections by contriving reasons to undermine Republican campaigns . Best of all, you can virtue posture that you're saving democracy or somesuch along the way.

it's a good gig, neverTrumpism, if you have the stomach for it.
Osodecentx
How long do you want to ignore this user?
whiterock said:

Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:

Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:

Osodecentx said:

Redbrickbear said:

Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:

ATL Bear said:

Osodecentx said:

How did Kari Lake perform in Maricopa County, AZ, specifically, compared with other Republicans?
Ms. Lake received 77,342 fewer votes than GOP state Treasurer Kimberly Yee.
Ms. Lake received 39,165 fewer votes than the combined GOP U.S. House candidates.
Ms. Lake received 23,901 fewer votes than GOP county prosecutor Rachel Mitchell.
These figures are especially striking because voter interest wanes down the ballot. Compared with the Governor's race, 78,000 fewer people voted for local prosecutor. Yet Ms. Mitchell still won more raw ballots than Ms. Lake.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/kari-lake-is-the-new-stacey-abrams-arizona-gubernatorial-election-11669849107

This is the break that the Trumpists conveniently ignore. It's all over the place.
and how much of that undervote was McCain faction crossover? people just leaving the race blank.

AZ, like GA, has a serious problem with state GOP infighting. Liz Cheney spent $500k in AZ against Lake, and actually went out on the campaign trail with some Democrat House members in close races.

She also campaigned in AZ against Lake. Note the banner behind her. Even heard her criticizing Ted Cruz for helping the GOP ticket in AZ.
https://arizonadailyindependent.com/2022/10/05/cheney-mccain-institute-campaign-event-at-asu-raises-legality-questions/

That's flagrant party establishment working to defeat party candidates in general elections solely for the purpose of restoring themselves to power in the party.

It is fundamentally unserious to assert that party in-fighting has no effect on mid-term elections. Cheney (to whom some here have donated funds that were spent in AZ and elsewhere to defeat Republicans) literally worked to defeat Trump endorsed candidates, then (ike several here) turned around after the mid-terms and blamed Trump for the losses. That is intellectual dishonest of the highest order.
Greatness. Liz kicked Trump's ass. She also spent more money in AZ than Trump.

Sounds like some here contributed to a winner

Liz literally got throw out of office by her constituents....she didn't kick Trumps ass....he is not even in office.

Now she may or may not have contributed to Mrs. Lakes loss in Arizona....but of course Mrs. Lake is not Trump so there was no reason for her to work against the chosen Republican candidate for office except that Liz hates any populist conservative candidate and wants the party to return and be the sole owned property of the Bush-Cheney corporatist wing.
Whiterock blames Liz for the defeat of Trump candidates. If you disagree, take it up with white rock
Let's see how your nonsense stands up against numbers.

There are 1.4m registered Republicans in AZ.
if only 2% are neverTrumpers/McCainiacs who don't even cross over but just undervote, that's 28k votes.
Lake lost by 17k votes.
The McCainiacs and neverTrumpers most definitely exceed 2% of the AZ GOP.
So yes, you share direct responsibility for Lake's defeat.

If we apply that same analysis to the AZ Senate race:
Masters lost by 125k votes.
If 10% of the AZ GOP are McCaniacs/neverTrumpers, that's 140k votes.
10% is probably a minimum share in AZ of McCaniacs and neverTrumpers.

It should not be surprising that party insurgencies matter in a close race.
You own it, buddy.
Be proud.
.
.
.
.
(I used AZ because the data is harder. In GA voter registration is non-partisan. As a rule, the closer the registration totals are, the more amplified the effect of in-fighting within a party. Very small insurgents can easily be the difference in very close races. Polling suggests that Dems/GOP are roughly equal in "party affiliation" so GA. And, of course, runoff elections are pure turnout exercises. People have already voted. It's only a question of will they vote twice. Partisans are much more likely to turnout than independents in such a scenario. So when you see Warnock increase his total in the runoff, it means that his turnout machine was better, as the "independent effect" is much reduced in a runoff. GA GOP has SERIOUS problems on multiple levels. And a GOP governor who is either not working the problem, or not being effective at it. But GOP neverTrumpers easily were the difference in GA. It's just a lot harder to quantify.)

Sounds like we agree: Liz kicked Trump's ass in AZ. She gave more money than Trump and actually showed up there. Lake went out of her way to insult an Arizona icon when she was in a close race.

I am proud. I vote independent, but I want 2 healthy parties so I'll have choices. Lake is a fringe candidate who thought Trump won the presidency in 2020.

You back all of Trump's substandard candidates and then blame everyone else when they lose.
You own Fetterman & Warnock.

I blame the people responsible, and we know who they are, for they virtue posture relentlessly about it
Well, let's just terminate the Constitution so the right people win.
No need to get your hands greasy turning wrenches on that. Democrats are hard at work on it every day. All you have to do is help them win elections by contriving reasons to undermine Republican campaigns . Best of all, you can virtue posture that you're saving democracy or somesuch along the way.

it's a good gig, neverTrumpism, if you have the stomach for it.
Dead ender Trumpism must be a good gig. You blame election losses on a lack of Republican ballot harvesting.

Which former POTUS said the following:
"REMEMBER, YOU CAN NEVER HAVE FAIR & FREE ELECTIONS WITH MAIL-IN BALLOTS NEVER, NEVER, NEVER. WON'T AND CAN'T HAPPEN!!!"
Sam Lowry
How long do you want to ignore this user?
whiterock said:

Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:

Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:

Osodecentx said:

Redbrickbear said:

Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:

ATL Bear said:

Osodecentx said:

How did Kari Lake perform in Maricopa County, AZ, specifically, compared with other Republicans?
Ms. Lake received 77,342 fewer votes than GOP state Treasurer Kimberly Yee.
Ms. Lake received 39,165 fewer votes than the combined GOP U.S. House candidates.
Ms. Lake received 23,901 fewer votes than GOP county prosecutor Rachel Mitchell.
These figures are especially striking because voter interest wanes down the ballot. Compared with the Governor's race, 78,000 fewer people voted for local prosecutor. Yet Ms. Mitchell still won more raw ballots than Ms. Lake.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/kari-lake-is-the-new-stacey-abrams-arizona-gubernatorial-election-11669849107

This is the break that the Trumpists conveniently ignore. It's all over the place.
and how much of that undervote was McCain faction crossover? people just leaving the race blank.

AZ, like GA, has a serious problem with state GOP infighting. Liz Cheney spent $500k in AZ against Lake, and actually went out on the campaign trail with some Democrat House members in close races.

She also campaigned in AZ against Lake. Note the banner behind her. Even heard her criticizing Ted Cruz for helping the GOP ticket in AZ.
https://arizonadailyindependent.com/2022/10/05/cheney-mccain-institute-campaign-event-at-asu-raises-legality-questions/

That's flagrant party establishment working to defeat party candidates in general elections solely for the purpose of restoring themselves to power in the party.

It is fundamentally unserious to assert that party in-fighting has no effect on mid-term elections. Cheney (to whom some here have donated funds that were spent in AZ and elsewhere to defeat Republicans) literally worked to defeat Trump endorsed candidates, then (ike several here) turned around after the mid-terms and blamed Trump for the losses. That is intellectual dishonest of the highest order.
Greatness. Liz kicked Trump's ass. She also spent more money in AZ than Trump.

Sounds like some here contributed to a winner

Liz literally got throw out of office by her constituents....she didn't kick Trumps ass....he is not even in office.

Now she may or may not have contributed to Mrs. Lakes loss in Arizona....but of course Mrs. Lake is not Trump so there was no reason for her to work against the chosen Republican candidate for office except that Liz hates any populist conservative candidate and wants the party to return and be the sole owned property of the Bush-Cheney corporatist wing.
Whiterock blames Liz for the defeat of Trump candidates. If you disagree, take it up with white rock
Let's see how your nonsense stands up against numbers.

There are 1.4m registered Republicans in AZ.
if only 2% are neverTrumpers/McCainiacs who don't even cross over but just undervote, that's 28k votes.
Lake lost by 17k votes.
The McCainiacs and neverTrumpers most definitely exceed 2% of the AZ GOP.
So yes, you share direct responsibility for Lake's defeat.

If we apply that same analysis to the AZ Senate race:
Masters lost by 125k votes.
If 10% of the AZ GOP are McCaniacs/neverTrumpers, that's 140k votes.
10% is probably a minimum share in AZ of McCaniacs and neverTrumpers.

It should not be surprising that party insurgencies matter in a close race.
You own it, buddy.
Be proud.
.
.
.
.
(I used AZ because the data is harder. In GA voter registration is non-partisan. As a rule, the closer the registration totals are, the more amplified the effect of in-fighting within a party. Very small insurgents can easily be the difference in very close races. Polling suggests that Dems/GOP are roughly equal in "party affiliation" so GA. And, of course, runoff elections are pure turnout exercises. People have already voted. It's only a question of will they vote twice. Partisans are much more likely to turnout than independents in such a scenario. So when you see Warnock increase his total in the runoff, it means that his turnout machine was better, as the "independent effect" is much reduced in a runoff. GA GOP has SERIOUS problems on multiple levels. And a GOP governor who is either not working the problem, or not being effective at it. But GOP neverTrumpers easily were the difference in GA. It's just a lot harder to quantify.)

Sounds like we agree: Liz kicked Trump's ass in AZ. She gave more money than Trump and actually showed up there. Lake went out of her way to insult an Arizona icon when she was in a close race.

I am proud. I vote independent, but I want 2 healthy parties so I'll have choices. Lake is a fringe candidate who thought Trump won the presidency in 2020.

You back all of Trump's substandard candidates and then blame everyone else when they lose.
You own Fetterman & Warnock.

I blame the people responsible, and we know who they are, for they virtue posture relentlessly about it
Well, let's just terminate the Constitution so the right people win.
No need to get your hands greasy turning wrenches on that. Democrats are hard at work on it every day. All you have to do is help them win elections by contriving reasons to undermine Republican campaigns . Best of all, you can virtue posture that you're saving democracy or somesuch along the way.

it's a good gig, neverTrumpism, if you have the stomach for it.
This is the way the waffling ends
Not with a bang but a whatabout.
whiterock
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:

Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:

Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:

Osodecentx said:

Redbrickbear said:

Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:

ATL Bear said:

Osodecentx said:

How did Kari Lake perform in Maricopa County, AZ, specifically, compared with other Republicans?
Ms. Lake received 77,342 fewer votes than GOP state Treasurer Kimberly Yee.
Ms. Lake received 39,165 fewer votes than the combined GOP U.S. House candidates.
Ms. Lake received 23,901 fewer votes than GOP county prosecutor Rachel Mitchell.
These figures are especially striking because voter interest wanes down the ballot. Compared with the Governor's race, 78,000 fewer people voted for local prosecutor. Yet Ms. Mitchell still won more raw ballots than Ms. Lake.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/kari-lake-is-the-new-stacey-abrams-arizona-gubernatorial-election-11669849107

This is the break that the Trumpists conveniently ignore. It's all over the place.
and how much of that undervote was McCain faction crossover? people just leaving the race blank.

AZ, like GA, has a serious problem with state GOP infighting. Liz Cheney spent $500k in AZ against Lake, and actually went out on the campaign trail with some Democrat House members in close races.

She also campaigned in AZ against Lake. Note the banner behind her. Even heard her criticizing Ted Cruz for helping the GOP ticket in AZ.
https://arizonadailyindependent.com/2022/10/05/cheney-mccain-institute-campaign-event-at-asu-raises-legality-questions/

That's flagrant party establishment working to defeat party candidates in general elections solely for the purpose of restoring themselves to power in the party.

It is fundamentally unserious to assert that party in-fighting has no effect on mid-term elections. Cheney (to whom some here have donated funds that were spent in AZ and elsewhere to defeat Republicans) literally worked to defeat Trump endorsed candidates, then (ike several here) turned around after the mid-terms and blamed Trump for the losses. That is intellectual dishonest of the highest order.
Greatness. Liz kicked Trump's ass. She also spent more money in AZ than Trump.

Sounds like some here contributed to a winner

Liz literally got throw out of office by her constituents....she didn't kick Trumps ass....he is not even in office.

Now she may or may not have contributed to Mrs. Lakes loss in Arizona....but of course Mrs. Lake is not Trump so there was no reason for her to work against the chosen Republican candidate for office except that Liz hates any populist conservative candidate and wants the party to return and be the sole owned property of the Bush-Cheney corporatist wing.
Whiterock blames Liz for the defeat of Trump candidates. If you disagree, take it up with white rock
Let's see how your nonsense stands up against numbers.

There are 1.4m registered Republicans in AZ.
if only 2% are neverTrumpers/McCainiacs who don't even cross over but just undervote, that's 28k votes.
Lake lost by 17k votes.
The McCainiacs and neverTrumpers most definitely exceed 2% of the AZ GOP.
So yes, you share direct responsibility for Lake's defeat.

If we apply that same analysis to the AZ Senate race:
Masters lost by 125k votes.
If 10% of the AZ GOP are McCaniacs/neverTrumpers, that's 140k votes.
10% is probably a minimum share in AZ of McCaniacs and neverTrumpers.

It should not be surprising that party insurgencies matter in a close race.
You own it, buddy.
Be proud.
.
.
.
.
(I used AZ because the data is harder. In GA voter registration is non-partisan. As a rule, the closer the registration totals are, the more amplified the effect of in-fighting within a party. Very small insurgents can easily be the difference in very close races. Polling suggests that Dems/GOP are roughly equal in "party affiliation" so GA. And, of course, runoff elections are pure turnout exercises. People have already voted. It's only a question of will they vote twice. Partisans are much more likely to turnout than independents in such a scenario. So when you see Warnock increase his total in the runoff, it means that his turnout machine was better, as the "independent effect" is much reduced in a runoff. GA GOP has SERIOUS problems on multiple levels. And a GOP governor who is either not working the problem, or not being effective at it. But GOP neverTrumpers easily were the difference in GA. It's just a lot harder to quantify.)

Sounds like we agree: Liz kicked Trump's ass in AZ. She gave more money than Trump and actually showed up there. Lake went out of her way to insult an Arizona icon when she was in a close race.

I am proud. I vote independent, but I want 2 healthy parties so I'll have choices. Lake is a fringe candidate who thought Trump won the presidency in 2020.

You back all of Trump's substandard candidates and then blame everyone else when they lose.
You own Fetterman & Warnock.

I blame the people responsible, and we know who they are, for they virtue posture relentlessly about it
Well, let's just terminate the Constitution so the right people win.
No need to get your hands greasy turning wrenches on that. Democrats are hard at work on it every day. All you have to do is help them win elections by contriving reasons to undermine Republican campaigns . Best of all, you can virtue posture that you're saving democracy or somesuch along the way.

it's a good gig, neverTrumpism, if you have the stomach for it.
Dead ender Trumpism must be a good gig. You blame election losses on a lack of Republican ballot harvesting.

Which former POTUS said the following:
"REMEMBER, YOU CAN NEVER HAVE FAIR & FREE ELECTIONS WITH MAIL-IN BALLOTS NEVER, NEVER, NEVER. WON'T AND CAN'T HAPPEN!!!"
Lack of robust GOP ballot harvesting operations is the largest single factor in the losses in the last two election cycles. That is not hard to understand, if you try.

Mail-in voting, combined with campaign finance laws which allow 501c3 charitable organizations to tap corporate funding for ostensibly non-partisan GOTV efforts, and public access for on-line voter data, basically make it possible to have election turnout resemble "adults" rather than "likely voters. One of the oldest dynamics in politics is that Democrats always poll a few points better among "adults" (the public) than they do with "registered voters." And they always poll a few points better with "registered voters" than with "likely voters." So, a starting demographic calculation is, lower turnout elections tend to favor Republicans.

Mail-in voting structures noted above allows Democrats to reach extremely low turnout demographics which are strongly positive blue demographics. If GOP does not respond with similar structures to ensure very high turnout rates in positive GOP demographics, they are looking at a 1-4% turnout deficit. Which is about what we've seen last two cycles. We've got other problems, too. The MIV issue is just the biggest. You acknowledged that a day or three ago that it was a problem. But now you've reflexed back to candidate quality uber alles. You can hold that teddy bear if you want to. I know it makes you feel better. But it really is kind a silly.

Osodecentx
How long do you want to ignore this user?
whiterock said:

Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:

Osodecentx said:

Redbrickbear said:

Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:

ATL Bear said:

Osodecentx said:

How did Kari Lake perform in Maricopa County, AZ, specifically, compared with other Republicans?
Ms. Lake received 77,342 fewer votes than GOP state Treasurer Kimberly Yee.
Ms. Lake received 39,165 fewer votes than the combined GOP U.S. House candidates.
Ms. Lake received 23,901 fewer votes than GOP county prosecutor Rachel Mitchell.
These figures are especially striking because voter interest wanes down the ballot. Compared with the Governor's race, 78,000 fewer people voted for local prosecutor. Yet Ms. Mitchell still won more raw ballots than Ms. Lake.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/kari-lake-is-the-new-stacey-abrams-arizona-gubernatorial-election-11669849107

This is the break that the Trumpists conveniently ignore. It's all over the place.
and how much of that undervote was McCain faction crossover? people just leaving the race blank.

AZ, like GA, has a serious problem with state GOP infighting. Liz Cheney spent $500k in AZ against Lake, and actually went out on the campaign trail with some Democrat House members in close races.

She also campaigned in AZ against Lake. Note the banner behind her. Even heard her criticizing Ted Cruz for helping the GOP ticket in AZ.
https://arizonadailyindependent.com/2022/10/05/cheney-mccain-institute-campaign-event-at-asu-raises-legality-questions/

That's flagrant party establishment working to defeat party candidates in general elections solely for the purpose of restoring themselves to power in the party.

It is fundamentally unserious to assert that party in-fighting has no effect on mid-term elections. Cheney (to whom some here have donated funds that were spent in AZ and elsewhere to defeat Republicans) literally worked to defeat Trump endorsed candidates, then (ike several here) turned around after the mid-terms and blamed Trump for the losses. That is intellectual dishonest of the highest order.
Greatness. Liz kicked Trump's ass. She also spent more money in AZ than Trump.

Sounds like some here contributed to a winner

Liz literally got throw out of office by her constituents....she didn't kick Trumps ass....he is not even in office.

Now she may or may not have contributed to Mrs. Lakes loss in Arizona....but of course Mrs. Lake is not Trump so there was no reason for her to work against the chosen Republican candidate for office except that Liz hates any populist conservative candidate and wants the party to return and be the sole owned property of the Bush-Cheney corporatist wing.
Whiterock blames Liz for the defeat of Trump candidates. If you disagree, take it up with white rock
Let's see how your nonsense stands up against numbers.

There are 1.4m registered Republicans in AZ.
if only 2% are neverTrumpers/McCainiacs who don't even cross over but just undervote, that's 28k votes.
Lake lost by 17k votes.
The McCainiacs and neverTrumpers most definitely exceed 2% of the AZ GOP.
So yes, you share direct responsibility for Lake's defeat.

If we apply that same analysis to the AZ Senate race:
Masters lost by 125k votes.
If 10% of the AZ GOP are McCaniacs/neverTrumpers, that's 140k votes.
10% is probably a minimum share in AZ of McCaniacs and neverTrumpers.

It should not be surprising that party insurgencies matter in a close race.
You own it, buddy.
Be proud.
.
.
.
(I used AZ because the data is harder. In GA voter registration is non-partisan. As a rule, the closer the registration totals are, the more amplified the effect of in-fighting within a party. Very small insurgents can easily be the difference in very close races. Polling suggests that Dems/GOP are roughly equal in "party affiliation" so GA. And, of course, runoff elections are pure turnout exercises. People have already voted. It's only a question of will they vote twice. Partisans are much more likely to turnout than independents in such a scenario. So when you see Warnock increase his total in the runoff, it means that his turnout machine was better, as the "independent effect" is much reduced in a runoff. GA GOP has SERIOUS problems on multiple levels. And a GOP governor who is either not working the problem, or not being effective at it. But GOP neverTrumpers easily were the difference in GA. It's just a lot harder to quantify.)

Sounds like we agree: Liz kicked Trump's ass in AZ. She gave more money than Trump and actually showed up there. Lake went out of her way to insult an Arizona icon when she was in a close race.

I am proud. I vote independent, but I want 2 healthy parties so I'll have choices. Lake is a fringe candidate who thought Trump won the presidency in 2020.

You back all of Trump's substandard candidates and then blame everyone else when they lose.
You own Fetterman & Warnock.

I blame the people responsible, and we know who they are, for they virtue posture relentlessly about it, right there in big, bold letters.



One deems oneself too good to stand with Republicans, so will be ruled by Democrats, and then blame Republicans.
I voted for a few Republicans. If you nominate Trump Dead Enders, you get what you deserve
Osodecentx
How long do you want to ignore this user?
whiterock said:

Osodecentx said:

Redbrickbear said:

Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:

ATL Bear said:

Osodecentx said:

How did Kari Lake perform in Maricopa County, AZ, specifically, compared with other Republicans?
Ms. Lake received 77,342 fewer votes than GOP state Treasurer Kimberly Yee.
Ms. Lake received 39,165 fewer votes than the combined GOP U.S. House candidates.
Ms. Lake received 23,901 fewer votes than GOP county prosecutor Rachel Mitchell.
These figures are especially striking because voter interest wanes down the ballot. Compared with the Governor's race, 78,000 fewer people voted for local prosecutor. Yet Ms. Mitchell still won more raw ballots than Ms. Lake.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/kari-lake-is-the-new-stacey-abrams-arizona-gubernatorial-election-11669849107

This is the break that the Trumpists conveniently ignore. It's all over the place.
and how much of that undervote was McCain faction crossover? people just leaving the race blank.

AZ, like GA, has a serious problem with state GOP infighting. Liz Cheney spent $500k in AZ against Lake, and actually went out on the campaign trail with some Democrat House members in close races.

She also campaigned in AZ against Lake. Note the banner behind her. Even heard her criticizing Ted Cruz for helping the GOP ticket in AZ.
https://arizonadailyindependent.com/2022/10/05/cheney-mccain-institute-campaign-event-at-asu-raises-legality-questions/

That's flagrant party establishment working to defeat party candidates in general elections solely for the purpose of restoring themselves to power in the party.

It is fundamentally unserious to assert that party in-fighting has no effect on mid-term elections. Cheney (to whom some here have donated funds that were spent in AZ and elsewhere to defeat Republicans) literally worked to defeat Trump endorsed candidates, then (ike several here) turned around after the mid-terms and blamed Trump for the losses. That is intellectual dishonest of the highest order.
Greatness. Liz kicked Trump's ass. She also spent more money in AZ than Trump.

Sounds like some here contributed to a winner

Liz literally got throw out of office by her constituents....she didn't kick Trumps ass....he is not even in office.

Now she may or may not have contributed to Mrs. Lakes loss in Arizona....but of course Mrs. Lake is not Trump so there was no reason for her to work against the chosen Republican candidate for office except that Liz hates any populist conservative candidate and wants the party to return and be the sole owned property of the Bush-Cheney corporatist wing.
Whiterock blames Liz for the defeat of Trump candidates. If you disagree, take it up with white rock
Pointing out the well-known (that the McCain wing of the AZ party is at war with the grassroots (Kelly Ward) wing of the party) is not ascribing 100% blame to a single factor. Pointing out that the McCain Foundation hosted Cheney AFTER she pledged to defeat Ward and spent some of your money to do it is not ascribing 100% of the blame. Pointing out that party infighting results in undervote and crossover voting is not ascribing 100% of the blame. It is, however, pointing out several things that do matter a lot in a close race. And that's before we get to the matter of election day issues which in any other context would be conceded as a material factor that suppressed vote totals, Dem mail-in voting machinery, etc......

You are the one attempting to ascribe 100% of the blame to a single factor.

Kari Lake Sues Arizona's Largest County, Seeking to Overturn Her Defeat
Ms. Lake, who fueled the false claims that the 2020 election had been stolen from Donald Trump, lost the Arizona governor's race by 17,000 votes.
Dec. 9, 2022
Kari Lake, the losing Republican candidate for governor of Arizona, filed a lawsuit Friday contesting the results of an election that was certified by the state this week.
Ms. Lake's lawsuit came after she had spent weeks making a series of public statements and social media posts aimed at sowing doubt in the outcome of a contest she lost by more than 17,000 votes to her Democratic opponent, Katie Hobbs. That loss was certified in documents signed on Monday by Ms. Hobbs, who currently serves as secretary of state.
A former news anchor, Ms. Lake centered her candidacy on false conspiratorial claims that the 2020 presidential election had been stolen from Donald J. Trump, who had endorsed her. For the past month, Ms. Lake, her campaign and other allies have been soliciting Election Day accounts from voters on social media and at rallies.
"If the process was illegitimate, then so are the results," Ms. Lake said on Twitter on Friday evening after announcing her lawsuit. "Stay tuned, folks."
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/09/us/politics/kari-lake-election-lawsuit.html
ATL Bear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
whiterock said:

Osodecentx said:

Redbrickbear said:

Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:

ATL Bear said:

Osodecentx said:

How did Kari Lake perform in Maricopa County, AZ, specifically, compared with other Republicans?
Ms. Lake received 77,342 fewer votes than GOP state Treasurer Kimberly Yee.
Ms. Lake received 39,165 fewer votes than the combined GOP U.S. House candidates.
Ms. Lake received 23,901 fewer votes than GOP county prosecutor Rachel Mitchell.
These figures are especially striking because voter interest wanes down the ballot. Compared with the Governor's race, 78,000 fewer people voted for local prosecutor. Yet Ms. Mitchell still won more raw ballots than Ms. Lake.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/kari-lake-is-the-new-stacey-abrams-arizona-gubernatorial-election-11669849107

This is the break that the Trumpists conveniently ignore. It's all over the place.
and how much of that undervote was McCain faction crossover? people just leaving the race blank.

AZ, like GA, has a serious problem with state GOP infighting. Liz Cheney spent $500k in AZ against Lake, and actually went out on the campaign trail with some Democrat House members in close races.

She also campaigned in AZ against Lake. Note the banner behind her. Even heard her criticizing Ted Cruz for helping the GOP ticket in AZ.
https://arizonadailyindependent.com/2022/10/05/cheney-mccain-institute-campaign-event-at-asu-raises-legality-questions/

That's flagrant party establishment working to defeat party candidates in general elections solely for the purpose of restoring themselves to power in the party.

It is fundamentally unserious to assert that party in-fighting has no effect on mid-term elections. Cheney (to whom some here have donated funds that were spent in AZ and elsewhere to defeat Republicans) literally worked to defeat Trump endorsed candidates, then (ike several here) turned around after the mid-terms and blamed Trump for the losses. That is intellectual dishonest of the highest order.
Greatness. Liz kicked Trump's ass. She also spent more money in AZ than Trump.

Sounds like some here contributed to a winner

Liz literally got throw out of office by her constituents....she didn't kick Trumps ass....he is not even in office.

Now she may or may not have contributed to Mrs. Lakes loss in Arizona....but of course Mrs. Lake is not Trump so there was no reason for her to work against the chosen Republican candidate for office except that Liz hates any populist conservative candidate and wants the party to return and be the sole owned property of the Bush-Cheney corporatist wing.
Whiterock blames Liz for the defeat of Trump candidates. If you disagree, take it up with white rock
Let's see how your nonsense stands up against numbers.

There are 1.4m registered Republicans in AZ.
if only 2% are neverTrumpers/McCainiacs who don't even cross over but just undervote, that's 28k votes.
Lake lost by 17k votes.
The McCainiacs and neverTrumpers most definitely exceed 2% of the AZ GOP.
So yes, you share direct responsibility for Lake's defeat.

If we apply that same analysis to the AZ Senate race:
Masters lost by 125k votes.
If 10% of the AZ GOP are McCaniacs/neverTrumpers, that's 140k votes.
10% is probably a minimum share in AZ of McCaniacs and neverTrumpers.

It should not be surprising that party insurgencies matter in a close race.
You own it, buddy.
Be proud.
.
.
.
.
(I used AZ because the data is harder. In GA voter registration is non-partisan. As a rule, the closer the registration totals are, the more amplified the effect of in-fighting within a party. Very small insurgents can easily be the difference in very close races. Polling suggests that Dems/GOP are roughly equal in "party affiliation" so GA. And, of course, runoff elections are pure turnout exercises. People have already voted. It's only a question of will they vote twice. Partisans are much more likely to turnout than independents in such a scenario. So when you see Warnock increase his total in the runoff, it means that his turnout machine was better, as the "independent effect" is much reduced in a runoff. GA GOP has SERIOUS problems on multiple levels. And a GOP governor who is either not working the problem, or not being effective at it. But GOP neverTrumpers easily were the difference in GA. It's just a lot harder to quantify.)

Pure fiction. You know a great way for Republicans to win elections in Georgia and most places? Reduce the advantage in the concentrated areas where Dems get their votes. I mean that was the big brag about Trump and how he won in 2016. In Fulton County alone Kemp got 26,000 more votes than Walker. That's more votes than a significant portion of these rural counties have in total. All told, in the major Democratic stronghold counties (which there are only a handful) Kemp had a 100,000+ vote advantage compared to Walker. That's not a GOP never-Trumper swing, or any of the other myriad excuses for a poor candidate.

And it's laughable to talk "party division" from the sycophants of the divider-in-chief himself Donald Trump. Him starting the fight and then blaming the fight is pathetic irony.
4th and Inches
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:

Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:

Osodecentx said:

Redbrickbear said:

Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:

ATL Bear said:

Osodecentx said:

How did Kari Lake perform in Maricopa County, AZ, specifically, compared with other Republicans?
Ms. Lake received 77,342 fewer votes than GOP state Treasurer Kimberly Yee.
Ms. Lake received 39,165 fewer votes than the combined GOP U.S. House candidates.
Ms. Lake received 23,901 fewer votes than GOP county prosecutor Rachel Mitchell.
These figures are especially striking because voter interest wanes down the ballot. Compared with the Governor's race, 78,000 fewer people voted for local prosecutor. Yet Ms. Mitchell still won more raw ballots than Ms. Lake.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/kari-lake-is-the-new-stacey-abrams-arizona-gubernatorial-election-11669849107

This is the break that the Trumpists conveniently ignore. It's all over the place.
and how much of that undervote was McCain faction crossover? people just leaving the race blank.

AZ, like GA, has a serious problem with state GOP infighting. Liz Cheney spent $500k in AZ against Lake, and actually went out on the campaign trail with some Democrat House members in close races.

She also campaigned in AZ against Lake. Note the banner behind her. Even heard her criticizing Ted Cruz for helping the GOP ticket in AZ.
https://arizonadailyindependent.com/2022/10/05/cheney-mccain-institute-campaign-event-at-asu-raises-legality-questions/

That's flagrant party establishment working to defeat party candidates in general elections solely for the purpose of restoring themselves to power in the party.

It is fundamentally unserious to assert that party in-fighting has no effect on mid-term elections. Cheney (to whom some here have donated funds that were spent in AZ and elsewhere to defeat Republicans) literally worked to defeat Trump endorsed candidates, then (ike several here) turned around after the mid-terms and blamed Trump for the losses. That is intellectual dishonest of the highest order.
Greatness. Liz kicked Trump's ass. She also spent more money in AZ than Trump.

Sounds like some here contributed to a winner

Liz literally got throw out of office by her constituents....she didn't kick Trumps ass....he is not even in office.

Now she may or may not have contributed to Mrs. Lakes loss in Arizona....but of course Mrs. Lake is not Trump so there was no reason for her to work against the chosen Republican candidate for office except that Liz hates any populist conservative candidate and wants the party to return and be the sole owned property of the Bush-Cheney corporatist wing.
Whiterock blames Liz for the defeat of Trump candidates. If you disagree, take it up with white rock
Let's see how your nonsense stands up against numbers.

There are 1.4m registered Republicans in AZ.
if only 2% are neverTrumpers/McCainiacs who don't even cross over but just undervote, that's 28k votes.
Lake lost by 17k votes.
The McCainiacs and neverTrumpers most definitely exceed 2% of the AZ GOP.
So yes, you share direct responsibility for Lake's defeat.

If we apply that same analysis to the AZ Senate race:
Masters lost by 125k votes.
If 10% of the AZ GOP are McCaniacs/neverTrumpers, that's 140k votes.
10% is probably a minimum share in AZ of McCaniacs and neverTrumpers.

It should not be surprising that party insurgencies matter in a close race.
You own it, buddy.
Be proud.
.
.
.
.
(I used AZ because the data is harder. In GA voter registration is non-partisan. As a rule, the closer the registration totals are, the more amplified the effect of in-fighting within a party. Very small insurgents can easily be the difference in very close races. Polling suggests that Dems/GOP are roughly equal in "party affiliation" so GA. And, of course, runoff elections are pure turnout exercises. People have already voted. It's only a question of will they vote twice. Partisans are much more likely to turnout than independents in such a scenario. So when you see Warnock increase his total in the runoff, it means that his turnout machine was better, as the "independent effect" is much reduced in a runoff. GA GOP has SERIOUS problems on multiple levels. And a GOP governor who is either not working the problem, or not being effective at it. But GOP neverTrumpers easily were the difference in GA. It's just a lot harder to quantify.)

Sounds like we agree: Liz kicked Trump's ass in AZ. She gave more money than Trump and actually showed up there. Lake went out of her way to insult an Arizona icon when she was in a close race.

I am proud. I vote independent, but I want 2 healthy parties so I'll have choices. Lake is a fringe candidate who thought Trump won the presidency in 2020.

You back all of Trump's substandard candidates and then blame everyone else when they lose.
You own Fetterman & Warnock.

I blame the people responsible, and we know who they are, for they virtue posture relentlessly about it
Well, let's just terminate the Constitution so the right people win
it's cute that you latch on to some poor wording versus the fact that he was actually right about the election being tampered with
“Mix a little foolishness with your serious plans. It is lovely to be silly at the right moment.”

–Horace


“Insomnia sharpens your math skills because you spend all night calculating how much sleep you’ll get if you’re able to ‘fall asleep right now.’ “
Osodecentx
How long do you want to ignore this user?
4th and Inches said:

Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:

Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:

Osodecentx said:

Redbrickbear said:

Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:

ATL Bear said:

Osodecentx said:

How did Kari Lake perform in Maricopa County, AZ, specifically, compared with other Republicans?
Ms. Lake received 77,342 fewer votes than GOP state Treasurer Kimberly Yee.
Ms. Lake received 39,165 fewer votes than the combined GOP U.S. House candidates.
Ms. Lake received 23,901 fewer votes than GOP county prosecutor Rachel Mitchell.
These figures are especially striking because voter interest wanes down the ballot. Compared with the Governor's race, 78,000 fewer people voted for local prosecutor. Yet Ms. Mitchell still won more raw ballots than Ms. Lake.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/kari-lake-is-the-new-stacey-abrams-arizona-gubernatorial-election-11669849107

This is the break that the Trumpists conveniently ignore. It's all over the place.
and how much of that undervote was McCain faction crossover? people just leaving the race blank.

AZ, like GA, has a serious problem with state GOP infighting. Liz Cheney spent $500k in AZ against Lake, and actually went out on the campaign trail with some Democrat House members in close races.

She also campaigned in AZ against Lake. Note the banner behind her. Even heard her criticizing Ted Cruz for helping the GOP ticket in AZ.
https://arizonadailyindependent.com/2022/10/05/cheney-mccain-institute-campaign-event-at-asu-raises-legality-questions/

That's flagrant party establishment working to defeat party candidates in general elections solely for the purpose of restoring themselves to power in the party.

It is fundamentally unserious to assert that party in-fighting has no effect on mid-term elections. Cheney (to whom some here have donated funds that were spent in AZ and elsewhere to defeat Republicans) literally worked to defeat Trump endorsed candidates, then (ike several here) turned around after the mid-terms and blamed Trump for the losses. That is intellectual dishonest of the highest order.
Greatness. Liz kicked Trump's ass. She also spent more money in AZ than Trump.

Sounds like some here contributed to a winner

Liz literally got throw out of office by her constituents....she didn't kick Trumps ass....he is not even in office.

Now she may or may not have contributed to Mrs. Lakes loss in Arizona....but of course Mrs. Lake is not Trump so there was no reason for her to work against the chosen Republican candidate for office except that Liz hates any populist conservative candidate and wants the party to return and be the sole owned property of the Bush-Cheney corporatist wing.
Whiterock blames Liz for the defeat of Trump candidates. If you disagree, take it up with white rock
Let's see how your nonsense stands up against numbers.

There are 1.4m registered Republicans in AZ.
if only 2% are neverTrumpers/McCainiacs who don't even cross over but just undervote, that's 28k votes.
Lake lost by 17k votes.
The McCainiacs and neverTrumpers most definitely exceed 2% of the AZ GOP.
So yes, you share direct responsibility for Lake's defeat.

If we apply that same analysis to the AZ Senate race:
Masters lost by 125k votes.
If 10% of the AZ GOP are McCaniacs/neverTrumpers, that's 140k votes.
10% is probably a minimum share in AZ of McCaniacs and neverTrumpers.

It should not be surprising that party insurgencies matter in a close race.
You own it, buddy.
Be proud.
.
.
.
.
(I used AZ because the data is harder. In GA voter registration is non-partisan. As a rule, the closer the registration totals are, the more amplified the effect of in-fighting within a party. Very small insurgents can easily be the difference in very close races. Polling suggests that Dems/GOP are roughly equal in "party affiliation" so GA. And, of course, runoff elections are pure turnout exercises. People have already voted. It's only a question of will they vote twice. Partisans are much more likely to turnout than independents in such a scenario. So when you see Warnock increase his total in the runoff, it means that his turnout machine was better, as the "independent effect" is much reduced in a runoff. GA GOP has SERIOUS problems on multiple levels. And a GOP governor who is either not working the problem, or not being effective at it. But GOP neverTrumpers easily were the difference in GA. It's just a lot harder to quantify.)

Sounds like we agree: Liz kicked Trump's ass in AZ. She gave more money than Trump and actually showed up there. Lake went out of her way to insult an Arizona icon when she was in a close race.

I am proud. I vote independent, but I want 2 healthy parties so I'll have choices. Lake is a fringe candidate who thought Trump won the presidency in 2020.

You back all of Trump's substandard candidates and then blame everyone else when they lose.
You own Fetterman & Warnock.

I blame the people responsible, and we know who they are, for they virtue posture relentlessly about it
Well, let's just terminate the Constitution so the right people win
it's cute that you latch on to some poor wording versus the fact that he was actually right about the election being tampered with
Your boy said it. You're treating Trump like he is Biden
I believe him.
Oldbear83
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Sam Lowry said:

whiterock said:

Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:

Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:

Osodecentx said:

Redbrickbear said:

Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:

ATL Bear said:

Osodecentx said:

How did Kari Lake perform in Maricopa County, AZ, specifically, compared with other Republicans?
Ms. Lake received 77,342 fewer votes than GOP state Treasurer Kimberly Yee.
Ms. Lake received 39,165 fewer votes than the combined GOP U.S. House candidates.
Ms. Lake received 23,901 fewer votes than GOP county prosecutor Rachel Mitchell.
These figures are especially striking because voter interest wanes down the ballot. Compared with the Governor's race, 78,000 fewer people voted for local prosecutor. Yet Ms. Mitchell still won more raw ballots than Ms. Lake.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/kari-lake-is-the-new-stacey-abrams-arizona-gubernatorial-election-11669849107

This is the break that the Trumpists conveniently ignore. It's all over the place.
and how much of that undervote was McCain faction crossover? people just leaving the race blank.

AZ, like GA, has a serious problem with state GOP infighting. Liz Cheney spent $500k in AZ against Lake, and actually went out on the campaign trail with some Democrat House members in close races.

She also campaigned in AZ against Lake. Note the banner behind her. Even heard her criticizing Ted Cruz for helping the GOP ticket in AZ.
https://arizonadailyindependent.com/2022/10/05/cheney-mccain-institute-campaign-event-at-asu-raises-legality-questions/

That's flagrant party establishment working to defeat party candidates in general elections solely for the purpose of restoring themselves to power in the party.

It is fundamentally unserious to assert that party in-fighting has no effect on mid-term elections. Cheney (to whom some here have donated funds that were spent in AZ and elsewhere to defeat Republicans) literally worked to defeat Trump endorsed candidates, then (ike several here) turned around after the mid-terms and blamed Trump for the losses. That is intellectual dishonest of the highest order.
Greatness. Liz kicked Trump's ass. She also spent more money in AZ than Trump.

Sounds like some here contributed to a winner

Liz literally got throw out of office by her constituents....she didn't kick Trumps ass....he is not even in office.

Now she may or may not have contributed to Mrs. Lakes loss in Arizona....but of course Mrs. Lake is not Trump so there was no reason for her to work against the chosen Republican candidate for office except that Liz hates any populist conservative candidate and wants the party to return and be the sole owned property of the Bush-Cheney corporatist wing.
Whiterock blames Liz for the defeat of Trump candidates. If you disagree, take it up with white rock
Let's see how your nonsense stands up against numbers.

There are 1.4m registered Republicans in AZ.
if only 2% are neverTrumpers/McCainiacs who don't even cross over but just undervote, that's 28k votes.
Lake lost by 17k votes.
The McCainiacs and neverTrumpers most definitely exceed 2% of the AZ GOP.
So yes, you share direct responsibility for Lake's defeat.

If we apply that same analysis to the AZ Senate race:
Masters lost by 125k votes.
If 10% of the AZ GOP are McCaniacs/neverTrumpers, that's 140k votes.
10% is probably a minimum share in AZ of McCaniacs and neverTrumpers.

It should not be surprising that party insurgencies matter in a close race.
You own it, buddy.
Be proud.
.
.
.
.
(I used AZ because the data is harder. In GA voter registration is non-partisan. As a rule, the closer the registration totals are, the more amplified the effect of in-fighting within a party. Very small insurgents can easily be the difference in very close races. Polling suggests that Dems/GOP are roughly equal in "party affiliation" so GA. And, of course, runoff elections are pure turnout exercises. People have already voted. It's only a question of will they vote twice. Partisans are much more likely to turnout than independents in such a scenario. So when you see Warnock increase his total in the runoff, it means that his turnout machine was better, as the "independent effect" is much reduced in a runoff. GA GOP has SERIOUS problems on multiple levels. And a GOP governor who is either not working the problem, or not being effective at it. But GOP neverTrumpers easily were the difference in GA. It's just a lot harder to quantify.)

Sounds like we agree: Liz kicked Trump's ass in AZ. She gave more money than Trump and actually showed up there. Lake went out of her way to insult an Arizona icon when she was in a close race.

I am proud. I vote independent, but I want 2 healthy parties so I'll have choices. Lake is a fringe candidate who thought Trump won the presidency in 2020.

You back all of Trump's substandard candidates and then blame everyone else when they lose.
You own Fetterman & Warnock.

I blame the people responsible, and we know who they are, for they virtue posture relentlessly about it
Well, let's just terminate the Constitution so the right people win.
No need to get your hands greasy turning wrenches on that. Democrats are hard at work on it every day. All you have to do is help them win elections by contriving reasons to undermine Republican campaigns . Best of all, you can virtue posture that you're saving democracy or somesuch along the way.

it's a good gig, neverTrumpism, if you have the stomach for it.
This is the way the waffling ends
Not with a bang but a whatabout.
Hush Sam, the Americans are talking.

You and Brandon, go get more ice cream.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
whiterock
How long do you want to ignore this user?
ATL Bear said:

whiterock said:

Osodecentx said:

Redbrickbear said:

Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:

ATL Bear said:

Osodecentx said:

How did Kari Lake perform in Maricopa County, AZ, specifically, compared with other Republicans?
Ms. Lake received 77,342 fewer votes than GOP state Treasurer Kimberly Yee.
Ms. Lake received 39,165 fewer votes than the combined GOP U.S. House candidates.
Ms. Lake received 23,901 fewer votes than GOP county prosecutor Rachel Mitchell.
These figures are especially striking because voter interest wanes down the ballot. Compared with the Governor's race, 78,000 fewer people voted for local prosecutor. Yet Ms. Mitchell still won more raw ballots than Ms. Lake.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/kari-lake-is-the-new-stacey-abrams-arizona-gubernatorial-election-11669849107

This is the break that the Trumpists conveniently ignore. It's all over the place.
and how much of that undervote was McCain faction crossover? people just leaving the race blank.

AZ, like GA, has a serious problem with state GOP infighting. Liz Cheney spent $500k in AZ against Lake, and actually went out on the campaign trail with some Democrat House members in close races.

She also campaigned in AZ against Lake. Note the banner behind her. Even heard her criticizing Ted Cruz for helping the GOP ticket in AZ.
https://arizonadailyindependent.com/2022/10/05/cheney-mccain-institute-campaign-event-at-asu-raises-legality-questions/

That's flagrant party establishment working to defeat party candidates in general elections solely for the purpose of restoring themselves to power in the party.

It is fundamentally unserious to assert that party in-fighting has no effect on mid-term elections. Cheney (to whom some here have donated funds that were spent in AZ and elsewhere to defeat Republicans) literally worked to defeat Trump endorsed candidates, then (ike several here) turned around after the mid-terms and blamed Trump for the losses. That is intellectual dishonest of the highest order.
Greatness. Liz kicked Trump's ass. She also spent more money in AZ than Trump.

Sounds like some here contributed to a winner

Liz literally got throw out of office by her constituents....she didn't kick Trumps ass....he is not even in office.

Now she may or may not have contributed to Mrs. Lakes loss in Arizona....but of course Mrs. Lake is not Trump so there was no reason for her to work against the chosen Republican candidate for office except that Liz hates any populist conservative candidate and wants the party to return and be the sole owned property of the Bush-Cheney corporatist wing.
Whiterock blames Liz for the defeat of Trump candidates. If you disagree, take it up with white rock
Let's see how your nonsense stands up against numbers.

There are 1.4m registered Republicans in AZ.
if only 2% are neverTrumpers/McCainiacs who don't even cross over but just undervote, that's 28k votes.
Lake lost by 17k votes.
The McCainiacs and neverTrumpers most definitely exceed 2% of the AZ GOP.
So yes, you share direct responsibility for Lake's defeat.

If we apply that same analysis to the AZ Senate race:
Masters lost by 125k votes.
If 10% of the AZ GOP are McCaniacs/neverTrumpers, that's 140k votes.
10% is probably a minimum share in AZ of McCaniacs and neverTrumpers.

It should not be surprising that party insurgencies matter in a close race.
You own it, buddy.
Be proud.
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(I used AZ because the data is harder. In GA voter registration is non-partisan. As a rule, the closer the registration totals are, the more amplified the effect of in-fighting within a party. Very small insurgents can easily be the difference in very close races. Polling suggests that Dems/GOP are roughly equal in "party affiliation" so GA. And, of course, runoff elections are pure turnout exercises. People have already voted. It's only a question of will they vote twice. Partisans are much more likely to turnout than independents in such a scenario. So when you see Warnock increase his total in the runoff, it means that his turnout machine was better, as the "independent effect" is much reduced in a runoff. GA GOP has SERIOUS problems on multiple levels. And a GOP governor who is either not working the problem, or not being effective at it. But GOP neverTrumpers easily were the difference in GA. It's just a lot harder to quantify.)

Pure fiction. You know a great way for Republicans to win elections in Georgia and most places? Reduce the advantage in the concentrated areas where Dems get their votes. I mean that was the big brag about Trump and how he won in 2016. In Fulton County alone Kemp got 26,000 more votes than Walker. That's more votes than a significant portion of these rural counties have in total. All told, in the major Democratic stronghold counties (which there are only a handful) Kemp had a 100,000+ vote advantage compared to Walker. That's not a GOP never-Trumper swing, or any of the other myriad excuses for a poor candidate.

And it's laughable to talk "party division" from the sycophants of the divider-in-chief himself Donald Trump. Him starting the fight and then blaming the fight is pathetic irony.
Not fiction. Math. Math which Oso is trying to ignore in order to shift blame to others. Most sources that have mentioned the subject indicate neverTrumpers are about 8% of the GOP. If that many people protest by not voting, or undervoting, a close race can easily be lost. A statewide race in GA lost by 10k votes can easily be blamed on a number of factors, TO INCLUDE neverTrumpers.

Perfectly fine for people to vote the way they see fit.
Wouldn't be an issue until they start trying to blame others for the loss.
In which case it is entirely appropriate to point out the hypocrisy.
it's like a saboteur suing a manufacturer for defective product.

A close race loss is always, by definition, a deficiency in turnout operations.
sombear
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Let's assume it's true that it was the Never Trumpers that cost Walker, Oz, etc., I have two points/questions:

One, Trump's (and Trumpers') primary argument for 6 years has been that the GOP does not need those votes, that we'll attract blue collar and other voters to more than offset. In fact, as Lake did AZ, Trump has openly taunted so-called moderates and establishment types. You can't pray for rain, then cry when the clouds come in.

Two, more fundamentally, this would further show that Trump and Trumpism is no longer electable. You can't win losing significant % of your own party.
4th and Inches
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sombear said:

Let's assume it's true that it was the Never Trumpers that cost Walker, Oz, etc., I have two points/questions:

One, Trump's (and Trumpers') primary argument for 6 years has been that the GOP does not need those votes, that we'll attract blue collar and other voters to more than offset. In fact, as Lake did AZ, Trump has openly taunted so-called moderates and establishment types. You can't pray for rain, then cry when the clouds come in.

Two, more fundamentally, this would further show that Trump and Trumpism is no longer electable. You can't win losing significant % of your own party.
and yet trumpsters nearly do it while all those tshirt fan voters sat out.. yall really showed them trumpsters! Pick my canidate or I will let my political enemy be in charge.
“Mix a little foolishness with your serious plans. It is lovely to be silly at the right moment.”

–Horace


“Insomnia sharpens your math skills because you spend all night calculating how much sleep you’ll get if you’re able to ‘fall asleep right now.’ “
sombear
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4th and Inches said:

sombear said:

Let's assume it's true that it was the Never Trumpers that cost Walker, Oz, etc., I have two points/questions:

One, Trump's (and Trumpers') primary argument for 6 years has been that the GOP does not need those votes, that we'll attract blue collar and other voters to more than offset. In fact, as Lake did AZ, Trump has openly taunted so-called moderates and establishment types. You can't pray for rain, then cry when the clouds come in.

Two, more fundamentally, this would further show that Trump and Trumpism is no longer electable. You can't win losing significant % of your own party.
and yet trumpsters nearly do it while all those tshirt fan voters sat out.. yall really showed them trumpsters! Pick my canidate or I will let my political enemy be in charge.
Look, I think there is a special place in political hell for never Trumpers (at least the type who let it change their long held political positions and who were inflicted with TDS). But I thought we were discussing the future and electability. While I finally had enough of Trump, my primary argument is that, regardless, he's simply not electable. He's a huge negative. We have to play with the hand we're dealt. And if that many Republicans will not vote for him or his candidates, then it's time to move on and find candidates who can bring everyone together. Those seem to be out there.
4th and Inches
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sombear said:

4th and Inches said:

sombear said:

Let's assume it's true that it was the Never Trumpers that cost Walker, Oz, etc., I have two points/questions:

One, Trump's (and Trumpers') primary argument for 6 years has been that the GOP does not need those votes, that we'll attract blue collar and other voters to more than offset. In fact, as Lake did AZ, Trump has openly taunted so-called moderates and establishment types. You can't pray for rain, then cry when the clouds come in.

Two, more fundamentally, this would further show that Trump and Trumpism is no longer electable. You can't win losing significant % of your own party.
and yet trumpsters nearly do it while all those tshirt fan voters sat out.. yall really showed them trumpsters! Pick my canidate or I will let my political enemy be in charge.
Look, I think there is a special place in political hell for never Trumpers (at least the type who let it change their long held political positions and who were inflicted with TDS). But I thought we were discussing the future and electability. While I finally had enough of Trump, my primary argument is that, regardless, he's simply not electable. He's a huge negative. We have to play with the hand we're dealt. And if that many Republicans will not vote for him or his candidates, then it's time to move on and find candidates who can bring everyone together. Those seem to be out there.
I will not vote for Trump in the primary but I might have to in the general if he gets thru as a GOP canidate. The Dems will put up Joe Biden or Newsome so that is a no for me. If he runs as independent then I will 100% not vote for him.

Hopefully Desantis or another decent canidate beats him in the primary and he walks away. Him in the general in any way will be a disaster for the GOP.
“Mix a little foolishness with your serious plans. It is lovely to be silly at the right moment.”

–Horace


“Insomnia sharpens your math skills because you spend all night calculating how much sleep you’ll get if you’re able to ‘fall asleep right now.’ “
whiterock
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sombear said:

Let's assume it's true that it was the Never Trumpers that cost Walker, Oz, etc., I have two points/questions:

One, Trump's (and Trumpers') primary argument for 6 years has been that the GOP does not need those votes, that we'll attract blue collar and other voters to more than offset. In fact, as Lake did AZ, Trump has openly taunted so-called moderates and establishment types. You can't pray for rain, then cry when the clouds come in.

Two, more fundamentally, this would further show that Trump and Trumpism is no longer electable. You can't win losing significant % of your own party.
One: the math is the math. new demographics are larger than neverTrumpers. So if we accept the false dilemma you offered and pander to neverTrumpers, we risk a net loss of voters.

Two: All campaigns lose a small percentage of the vote from within their party. Trump's share is noisy not particularly remarkable numerically. But that is not the context of the conversation. My point about neverTrumpers costing Walker/Lake their elections was a rebuttal to the patently silly assertion by several here that Trump alone cost us these races in the middle. That flies in the face of basic math. If you lose a 2.5m statewide race by only 17k votes (Lake), any of SEVERAL factors could have won the race. And in AZ specifically, we know that the GOP has been riven by establishment/grassroots infighting for nearly a decade...and the McCain faction remains both highly influential and highly hostile to anything Trump.

Team neverTrump also conveniently flips/flops on both sides of other lines. Sometimes, Trump is kryptonite to all things GOP - yet GOP won a number of statewide races in AZ and elsewhere. In other cases, the argument is that only Trump endorsees are failing across the board. Yet in fact Trump endorsees succeeded in a number of places in this and prior election cycles, most notably the two names most commonly proposed as Trump's successors - Youngkin, DeSantis. Can't have it all ways & twice on Sundays......

Reality is, Trump did make a coupld of bad endorsements. And a couple of questionable ones. But only one as bad as Fetterman, and only a couple as bad as Warnock or Hobbs. That's hardly grounds for the critique he's gotten.

I think I've been pretty consistent here, and considerably more balanced than the Trump critics, who are trying to lay the entire blame in one place. There was plenty to go around. And if the only one we fix is the guy at the top of the ticket, we will have the same outcome in 2024 we've had in the last two cycles. The real elephant in the room is this: Democrats have proven that a really good ballot harvesting operation can elect people who cannot speak in subject/verb/object sentences and rarely bother to appear in public. In that context, the bar for the candidates is pretty low and we have a LOT of work to do.
 
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