Jack Bauer said:

---

Ursus Americanus said:

---

Jack Bauer said:

---

Ursus Americanus said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

This is some bull**** from Trump.

Calling it now, DeSantis is going to run, and he's going to beat Trump badly

This is just weak https://t.co/fsOM2ouvSN

— Will Chamberlain (@willchamberlain) November 6, 2022

---

Trump's moment is over, he was the vehicle that stopped Hillary and flipped the Supreme Court for a generation and we thank him, he also had sane foreign policy, but the rest of his antics are a detriment and DeSantis brings most of Trump's pluses to the table with almost none of the minuses.

---

His ego will overshadow some of his great accomplishments....

Crapping on the MSM and the Dems is one thing but he does it to everyone.

---

If he'd shut up he'd get the legacy of stopping the Clinton machine and breaking the DNC for a generation while breaking the back of judicial activism and overturning Roe v Wade.

Incredible and historical accomplishments that will shape decades of political ramifications.

---

Average Americans don't care about Russia, Russia, Russia the way the MSM does.

It all comes down to jobs, taxes, stock market, crime and any average person can see the different between Trump and Biden.

---

I'm just saying, if Trump would practice some Calvin Coolidge demeanor, he'd be remembered as a very consequential leader.

Ursus Americanus said:

---

Jack Bauer said:

---

Ursus Americanus said:

---

Jack Bauer said:

---

Ursus Americanus said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

This is some bull**** from Trump.

Calling it now, DeSantis is going to run, and he's going to beat Trump badly

This is just weak https://t.co/fsOM2ouvSN

— Will Chamberlain (@willchamberlain) November 6, 2022

---

Trump's moment is over, he was the vehicle that stopped Hillary and flipped the Supreme Court for a generation and we thank him, he also had sane foreign policy, but the rest of his antics are a detriment and DeSantis brings most of Trump's pluses to the table with almost none of the minuses.

---

His ego will overshadow some of his great accomplishments....

Crapping on the MSM and the Dems is one thing but he does it to everyone.

---

If he'd shut up he'd get the legacy of stopping the Clinton machine and breaking the DNC for a generation while breaking the back of judicial activism and overturning Roe v Wade.

Incredible and historical accomplishments that will shape decades of political ramifications.

---

Average Americans don't care about Russia, Russia, Russia the way the MSM does.

It all comes down to jobs, taxes, stock market, crime and any average person can see the different between Trump and Biden.

---

I'm just saying, if Trump would practice some Calvin Coolidge demeanor, he'd be remembered as a very consequential leader.

---

100% agree

wow - how will he ever recover?

So a guy who wasn’t governor yet chose a wedding venue with a woman who wasn’t his wife yet from a company that hadn’t opposed legislation yet that wasn’t even written yet?

SCANDALOUS 🤣 https://t.co/jy7kf1qB27

— Jenna Ellis 🍊🦅 (@JennaEllisEsq) November 5, 2022

This clip will put Lee Zeldin in the Governor’s Mansion. pic.twitter.com/mZNMcFl2ac

— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) November 6, 2022

Only Wisconsins can vote in Wisconsin=gerrymandering.

Submitted without comment… pic.twitter.com/rZFgcQI5Ix

— NevilleTheCat (@FearTheFloof) November 5, 2022

Jack Bauer said:

---

wow - how will he ever recover?

So a guy who wasn’t governor yet chose a wedding venue with a woman who wasn’t his wife yet from a company that hadn’t opposed legislation yet that wasn’t even written yet?

SCANDALOUS 🤣 https://t.co/jy7kf1qB27

— Jenna Ellis 🍊🦅 (@JennaEllisEsq) November 5, 2022

---

this is the level of stupid we are at as a society.. electrolytes!

Jack Bauer said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Texas Turnout Report:

2022 General Election - Early Voting Report

It's currently 2:30pm. I was waiting for a few counties to post their lists from yesterday (cough, cough, Galveston County), but they haven't yet. So this is a nearly complete report.

Yesterday. Wow! 720,636 people voted.

Right now we are sitting at 5,459,552 votes cast (30.9% of all registered voters voted).

The breakdown by day is as follows (I separately ballots received by mail before early voting began and put it into its own category called "Day 0."):

Day 0: 172,906
Monday: 457,763
Tuesday: 478,792
Wednesday: 462,660
Thursday: 463,686
Friday: 449,419
Saturday: 328,460
Sunday: 153,622
Monday: 426,309
Tuesday: 396,454
Wednesday: 437,560
Thursday: 511,285
Friday: 720,636


Early Voters by Previous Election History

Voters with previous Republican Primary history now have a 565,429 vote advantage over those with previous Democratic Primary history. As a reminder, participation in a party's primary does not mean the individual votes for that party's candidate in the General Election. However, it is a very good indicator.

While the advantage grew only slightly yesterday (9,687 votes), the Republican Primary voter advantage has grown every single day of early voting, with the exception of Sunday.

When we review all early voters by their previous election history, the breakout is as follows:

Republican Primary voters 40%
Democratic Primary voters 29%
Voters with no primary election history 30%

For the first time during early voting, voters with no previous primary history make up a larger share than those with Democratic Primary history.

The split after early voting ended in previous elections was:
2020: 29% Republican / 24% Democratic / 48% No primary history
2018: 34% Republican / 20% Democratic / 46% No primary history.
2016: 37% Republican / 19% Democratic / 44% No primary history
2014: 40% Republican / 28% Democratic / 33% No primary history

Again, based on this data point alone, the makeup of early voters more closely resembles that from 2014 than it does 2018. (In 2014, John Cornyn was at the top of the ticket and defeated David Alameel 62%-34% and Greg Abbott defeated Wendy Davis 59%-39%.)

Here is how this has tracked each day of early voting.



2022 vs. 2018 Turnout

We can FINALLY compare early voting totals this year to 2018 for the entire state. As I said earlier, 5,459,552 people voted this year. In 2018, 5,994,140 people voted early in the U.S. Senate race. This means we fell short of the 2018 total by 534,588 votes.

However, in 2018, there were 15,793,257 registered voters. 38% of registered voters voted. Currently, there are 17,675,191 registered voters and only 31% voted early. In order to get to a 38% turnout rate, we would have needed 6,716,573 people voting. So adjusted for the growth in the number of registered voters, we are currently 1.3 million votes behind 2018's turnout.


Urban vs. Rural

The Big Five counties (Harris, Dallas, Bexar, Travis, and Tarrant) saw 2,278,492 people vote. They made up 41.7% of all votes cast during early voting. 31% of all registered voters in these counties voted early.

The next 20 largest counties (many of which surround the above-listed counties) saw 1,907,772 people vote. They made up 34.9% of all votes cast. 32.2% of all registered voters in these counties voted early.

The remaining 229 counties saw 1,273,288 people vote. They made up 23.3% of all votes cast. 29.1% of all registered voters in these counties voted early. But, as I have said before, early voting is more popular in urban and suburban areas than it is rural counties. There are fewer early voting places and in a rural county, the drive might be significantly out of the way to reach a polling place. On Election Day, the likelihood is higher that there will be a closer polling place.

Why is it important to look at this breakdown?

In 2020, President Trump received 39.5% of the vote in The Big Five, 51.6% in the next 20 largest counties, but received 74.1% in the remaining 229 counties.

In 2018, Senator Cruz saw a similar breakdown. Cruz received 38.5% of the vote in The Big Five, 51.2% in the next 20 largest counties, and 72.2% in the remaining 229 counties.


Primary Voters

Each party still has over one million voters who voted in their party's primary who have NOT voted. There are 1.5 million voters with previous Republican Primary history and 1.2 million voters with previous Democratic Primary history who have not voted.

59% of voters with Republican Primary history voted early compared to 57% of voters with Democratic Primary history that voted.

In 2018, 21% of voters with Republican Primary history waited to vote on Election Day. If that holds true this year, that would equate to 732,000 votes. 16.7% of voters with Democratic Primary history waited to vote on Election Day. That would equal about 436,000 votes.

It is likely that a larger portion of Republican Primary voters are waiting to vote on Election Day than in years past. The participation rates of 3Rs and 4Rs may point to this being the case. 71.3% of 3Rs have voted and 80.6% of 4Rs have voted. These are group where 90%+ end up voting in midterm elections.


Demographics

These are the updated participation rates by gender, age, and I have added voters with a Hispanic surname to the mix.



The group everyone seems to be focusing on, only 14% of voters aged 18-29 have voted early. In 2018, 34% voted. To reach that rate, an additional 735,721 18-29 year olds will have to vote on Election Day (507,608 voted during early voting).


Projections

Now the question becomes, "How many people are going to vote on Election Day?" And it wasn't 7:20am before Adam Loewy asked me that question (with Evan Smith close behind at 7:40am).

I'm actually not going to make a final projection yet because I need to go through the data a bit more. I'll make a projection in Monday's super duper early voting report.

In the meantime, here is how the early/mail versus Election Day vote has split historically:

2020: 86% of votes were cast by mail or during early voting / 14% on Election Day
2018: 72% mail/early / 28% Election Day
2016: 77% mail/early / 23% Election Day
2014: 55% mail/early / 45% Election Day


The Reports

For the full statewide report, please click here.
For the breakdown by county, please click here.


Last Notes

On Monday afternoon, I will send out a final early voting report. It will include more charts, more data, more everything. Hopefully, that will give you something to look at as we all wait for returns to start rolling in on Tuesday night.

---

Thanks for doing this. All of this proves that it just takes a person to give 2 ****s in order to vote. Technology has made voting easier today than ever before. You can vote early. You can vote at 7AM or 7PM, on a Saturday or a Sunday. I could vote early for a 2 week period in almost any precinct in my county.

The BS stories from Kamala about "the mother with 3 kids in her car", "the senior citizen with health issues" is tired and these cases are so negligible to the overall voting turnout.

---

They spread that horse manure because "voter rights" and "voter suppression" is the euphemism they have for the fact election criteria exists, namely that you are a citizen, 18 or older, can prove who you are with an ID, only vote once, and are alive.

Ursus Americanus said:

---

Jack Bauer said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Texas Turnout Report:

2022 General Election - Early Voting Report

It's currently 2:30pm. I was waiting for a few counties to post their lists from yesterday (cough, cough, Galveston County), but they haven't yet. So this is a nearly complete report.

Yesterday. Wow! 720,636 people voted.

Right now we are sitting at 5,459,552 votes cast (30.9% of all registered voters voted).

The breakdown by day is as follows (I separately ballots received by mail before early voting began and put it into its own category called "Day 0."):

Day 0: 172,906
Monday: 457,763
Tuesday: 478,792
Wednesday: 462,660
Thursday: 463,686
Friday: 449,419
Saturday: 328,460
Sunday: 153,622
Monday: 426,309
Tuesday: 396,454
Wednesday: 437,560
Thursday: 511,285
Friday: 720,636


Early Voters by Previous Election History

Voters with previous Republican Primary history now have a 565,429 vote advantage over those with previous Democratic Primary history. As a reminder, participation in a party's primary does not mean the individual votes for that party's candidate in the General Election. However, it is a very good indicator.

While the advantage grew only slightly yesterday (9,687 votes), the Republican Primary voter advantage has grown every single day of early voting, with the exception of Sunday.

When we review all early voters by their previous election history, the breakout is as follows:

Republican Primary voters 40%
Democratic Primary voters 29%
Voters with no primary election history 30%

For the first time during early voting, voters with no previous primary history make up a larger share than those with Democratic Primary history.

The split after early voting ended in previous elections was:
2020: 29% Republican / 24% Democratic / 48% No primary history
2018: 34% Republican / 20% Democratic / 46% No primary history.
2016: 37% Republican / 19% Democratic / 44% No primary history
2014: 40% Republican / 28% Democratic / 33% No primary history

Again, based on this data point alone, the makeup of early voters more closely resembles that from 2014 than it does 2018. (In 2014, John Cornyn was at the top of the ticket and defeated David Alameel 62%-34% and Greg Abbott defeated Wendy Davis 59%-39%.)

Here is how this has tracked each day of early voting.



2022 vs. 2018 Turnout

We can FINALLY compare early voting totals this year to 2018 for the entire state. As I said earlier, 5,459,552 people voted this year. In 2018, 5,994,140 people voted early in the U.S. Senate race. This means we fell short of the 2018 total by 534,588 votes.

However, in 2018, there were 15,793,257 registered voters. 38% of registered voters voted. Currently, there are 17,675,191 registered voters and only 31% voted early. In order to get to a 38% turnout rate, we would have needed 6,716,573 people voting. So adjusted for the growth in the number of registered voters, we are currently 1.3 million votes behind 2018's turnout.


Urban vs. Rural

The Big Five counties (Harris, Dallas, Bexar, Travis, and Tarrant) saw 2,278,492 people vote. They made up 41.7% of all votes cast during early voting. 31% of all registered voters in these counties voted early.

The next 20 largest counties (many of which surround the above-listed counties) saw 1,907,772 people vote. They made up 34.9% of all votes cast. 32.2% of all registered voters in these counties voted early.

The remaining 229 counties saw 1,273,288 people vote. They made up 23.3% of all votes cast. 29.1% of all registered voters in these counties voted early. But, as I have said before, early voting is more popular in urban and suburban areas than it is rural counties. There are fewer early voting places and in a rural county, the drive might be significantly out of the way to reach a polling place. On Election Day, the likelihood is higher that there will be a closer polling place.

Why is it important to look at this breakdown?

In 2020, President Trump received 39.5% of the vote in The Big Five, 51.6% in the next 20 largest counties, but received 74.1% in the remaining 229 counties.

In 2018, Senator Cruz saw a similar breakdown. Cruz received 38.5% of the vote in The Big Five, 51.2% in the next 20 largest counties, and 72.2% in the remaining 229 counties.


Primary Voters

Each party still has over one million voters who voted in their party's primary who have NOT voted. There are 1.5 million voters with previous Republican Primary history and 1.2 million voters with previous Democratic Primary history who have not voted.

59% of voters with Republican Primary history voted early compared to 57% of voters with Democratic Primary history that voted.

In 2018, 21% of voters with Republican Primary history waited to vote on Election Day. If that holds true this year, that would equate to 732,000 votes. 16.7% of voters with Democratic Primary history waited to vote on Election Day. That would equal about 436,000 votes.

It is likely that a larger portion of Republican Primary voters are waiting to vote on Election Day than in years past. The participation rates of 3Rs and 4Rs may point to this being the case. 71.3% of 3Rs have voted and 80.6% of 4Rs have voted. These are group where 90%+ end up voting in midterm elections.


Demographics

These are the updated participation rates by gender, age, and I have added voters with a Hispanic surname to the mix.



The group everyone seems to be focusing on, only 14% of voters aged 18-29 have voted early. In 2018, 34% voted. To reach that rate, an additional 735,721 18-29 year olds will have to vote on Election Day (507,608 voted during early voting).


Projections

Now the question becomes, "How many people are going to vote on Election Day?" And it wasn't 7:20am before Adam Loewy asked me that question (with Evan Smith close behind at 7:40am).

I'm actually not going to make a final projection yet because I need to go through the data a bit more. I'll make a projection in Monday's super duper early voting report.

In the meantime, here is how the early/mail versus Election Day vote has split historically:

2020: 86% of votes were cast by mail or during early voting / 14% on Election Day
2018: 72% mail/early / 28% Election Day
2016: 77% mail/early / 23% Election Day
2014: 55% mail/early / 45% Election Day


The Reports

For the full statewide report, please click here.
For the breakdown by county, please click here.


Last Notes

On Monday afternoon, I will send out a final early voting report. It will include more charts, more data, more everything. Hopefully, that will give you something to look at as we all wait for returns to start rolling in on Tuesday night.

---

Thanks for doing this. All of this proves that it just takes a person to give 2 ****s in order to vote. Technology has made voting easier today than ever before. You can vote early. You can vote at 7AM or 7PM, on a Saturday or a Sunday. I could vote early for a 2 week period in almost any precinct in my county.

The BS stories from Kamala about "the mother with 3 kids in her car", "the senior citizen with health issues" is tired and these cases are so negligible to the overall voting turnout.

---

They spread that horse manure because "voter rights" and "voter suppression" is the euphemism they have for the fact election criteria exists, namely that you are a citizen, 18 or older, can prove who you are with an ID, only vote once, and are alive.

---

I read that a group said it was racist, bigoted, anti-youth, etc to NOT accept college student IDs as a form of identification.

How does showing you are a student at Baylor prove you have residence in Texas?

Jack Bauer said:

---

Ursus Americanus said:

---

Jack Bauer said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Texas Turnout Report:

2022 General Election - Early Voting Report

It's currently 2:30pm. I was waiting for a few counties to post their lists from yesterday (cough, cough, Galveston County), but they haven't yet. So this is a nearly complete report.

Yesterday. Wow! 720,636 people voted.

Right now we are sitting at 5,459,552 votes cast (30.9% of all registered voters voted).

The breakdown by day is as follows (I separately ballots received by mail before early voting began and put it into its own category called "Day 0."):

Day 0: 172,906
Monday: 457,763
Tuesday: 478,792
Wednesday: 462,660
Thursday: 463,686
Friday: 449,419
Saturday: 328,460
Sunday: 153,622
Monday: 426,309
Tuesday: 396,454
Wednesday: 437,560
Thursday: 511,285
Friday: 720,636


Early Voters by Previous Election History

Voters with previous Republican Primary history now have a 565,429 vote advantage over those with previous Democratic Primary history. As a reminder, participation in a party's primary does not mean the individual votes for that party's candidate in the General Election. However, it is a very good indicator.

While the advantage grew only slightly yesterday (9,687 votes), the Republican Primary voter advantage has grown every single day of early voting, with the exception of Sunday.

When we review all early voters by their previous election history, the breakout is as follows:

Republican Primary voters 40%
Democratic Primary voters 29%
Voters with no primary election history 30%

For the first time during early voting, voters with no previous primary history make up a larger share than those with Democratic Primary history.

The split after early voting ended in previous elections was:
2020: 29% Republican / 24% Democratic / 48% No primary history
2018: 34% Republican / 20% Democratic / 46% No primary history.
2016: 37% Republican / 19% Democratic / 44% No primary history
2014: 40% Republican / 28% Democratic / 33% No primary history

Again, based on this data point alone, the makeup of early voters more closely resembles that from 2014 than it does 2018. (In 2014, John Cornyn was at the top of the ticket and defeated David Alameel 62%-34% and Greg Abbott defeated Wendy Davis 59%-39%.)

Here is how this has tracked each day of early voting.



2022 vs. 2018 Turnout

We can FINALLY compare early voting totals this year to 2018 for the entire state. As I said earlier, 5,459,552 people voted this year. In 2018, 5,994,140 people voted early in the U.S. Senate race. This means we fell short of the 2018 total by 534,588 votes.

However, in 2018, there were 15,793,257 registered voters. 38% of registered voters voted. Currently, there are 17,675,191 registered voters and only 31% voted early. In order to get to a 38% turnout rate, we would have needed 6,716,573 people voting. So adjusted for the growth in the number of registered voters, we are currently 1.3 million votes behind 2018's turnout.


Urban vs. Rural

The Big Five counties (Harris, Dallas, Bexar, Travis, and Tarrant) saw 2,278,492 people vote. They made up 41.7% of all votes cast during early voting. 31% of all registered voters in these counties voted early.

The next 20 largest counties (many of which surround the above-listed counties) saw 1,907,772 people vote. They made up 34.9% of all votes cast. 32.2% of all registered voters in these counties voted early.

The remaining 229 counties saw 1,273,288 people vote. They made up 23.3% of all votes cast. 29.1% of all registered voters in these counties voted early. But, as I have said before, early voting is more popular in urban and suburban areas than it is rural counties. There are fewer early voting places and in a rural county, the drive might be significantly out of the way to reach a polling place. On Election Day, the likelihood is higher that there will be a closer polling place.

Why is it important to look at this breakdown?

In 2020, President Trump received 39.5% of the vote in The Big Five, 51.6% in the next 20 largest counties, but received 74.1% in the remaining 229 counties.

In 2018, Senator Cruz saw a similar breakdown. Cruz received 38.5% of the vote in The Big Five, 51.2% in the next 20 largest counties, and 72.2% in the remaining 229 counties.


Primary Voters

Each party still has over one million voters who voted in their party's primary who have NOT voted. There are 1.5 million voters with previous Republican Primary history and 1.2 million voters with previous Democratic Primary history who have not voted.

59% of voters with Republican Primary history voted early compared to 57% of voters with Democratic Primary history that voted.

In 2018, 21% of voters with Republican Primary history waited to vote on Election Day. If that holds true this year, that would equate to 732,000 votes. 16.7% of voters with Democratic Primary history waited to vote on Election Day. That would equal about 436,000 votes.

It is likely that a larger portion of Republican Primary voters are waiting to vote on Election Day than in years past. The participation rates of 3Rs and 4Rs may point to this being the case. 71.3% of 3Rs have voted and 80.6% of 4Rs have voted. These are group where 90%+ end up voting in midterm elections.


Demographics

These are the updated participation rates by gender, age, and I have added voters with a Hispanic surname to the mix.



The group everyone seems to be focusing on, only 14% of voters aged 18-29 have voted early. In 2018, 34% voted. To reach that rate, an additional 735,721 18-29 year olds will have to vote on Election Day (507,608 voted during early voting).


Projections

Now the question becomes, "How many people are going to vote on Election Day?" And it wasn't 7:20am before Adam Loewy asked me that question (with Evan Smith close behind at 7:40am).

I'm actually not going to make a final projection yet because I need to go through the data a bit more. I'll make a projection in Monday's super duper early voting report.

In the meantime, here is how the early/mail versus Election Day vote has split historically:

2020: 86% of votes were cast by mail or during early voting / 14% on Election Day
2018: 72% mail/early / 28% Election Day
2016: 77% mail/early / 23% Election Day
2014: 55% mail/early / 45% Election Day


The Reports

For the full statewide report, please click here.
For the breakdown by county, please click here.


Last Notes

On Monday afternoon, I will send out a final early voting report. It will include more charts, more data, more everything. Hopefully, that will give you something to look at as we all wait for returns to start rolling in on Tuesday night.

---

Thanks for doing this. All of this proves that it just takes a person to give 2 ****s in order to vote. Technology has made voting easier today than ever before. You can vote early. You can vote at 7AM or 7PM, on a Saturday or a Sunday. I could vote early for a 2 week period in almost any precinct in my county.

The BS stories from Kamala about "the mother with 3 kids in her car", "the senior citizen with health issues" is tired and these cases are so negligible to the overall voting turnout.

---

They spread that horse manure because "voter rights" and "voter suppression" is the euphemism they have for the fact election criteria exists, namely that you are a citizen, 18 or older, can prove who you are with an ID, only vote once, and are alive.

---

I read that a group said it was racist, bigoted, anti-youth, etc to NOT accept college student IDs as a form of identification.

How does showing you are a student at Baylor prove you have residence in Texas?

---

They're dummies, same people think gerrymandering impacts statewide elections which are a raw vote.

Ursus Americanus said:

---

Jack Bauer said:

---

Ursus Americanus said:

---

Jack Bauer said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Texas Turnout Report:

2022 General Election - Early Voting Report

It's currently 2:30pm. I was waiting for a few counties to post their lists from yesterday (cough, cough, Galveston County), but they haven't yet. So this is a nearly complete report.

Yesterday. Wow! 720,636 people voted.

Right now we are sitting at 5,459,552 votes cast (30.9% of all registered voters voted).

The breakdown by day is as follows (I separately ballots received by mail before early voting began and put it into its own category called "Day 0."):

Day 0: 172,906
Monday: 457,763
Tuesday: 478,792
Wednesday: 462,660
Thursday: 463,686
Friday: 449,419
Saturday: 328,460
Sunday: 153,622
Monday: 426,309
Tuesday: 396,454
Wednesday: 437,560
Thursday: 511,285
Friday: 720,636


Early Voters by Previous Election History

Voters with previous Republican Primary history now have a 565,429 vote advantage over those with previous Democratic Primary history. As a reminder, participation in a party's primary does not mean the individual votes for that party's candidate in the General Election. However, it is a very good indicator.

While the advantage grew only slightly yesterday (9,687 votes), the Republican Primary voter advantage has grown every single day of early voting, with the exception of Sunday.

When we review all early voters by their previous election history, the breakout is as follows:

Republican Primary voters 40%
Democratic Primary voters 29%
Voters with no primary election history 30%

For the first time during early voting, voters with no previous primary history make up a larger share than those with Democratic Primary history.

The split after early voting ended in previous elections was:
2020: 29% Republican / 24% Democratic / 48% No primary history
2018: 34% Republican / 20% Democratic / 46% No primary history.
2016: 37% Republican / 19% Democratic / 44% No primary history
2014: 40% Republican / 28% Democratic / 33% No primary history

Again, based on this data point alone, the makeup of early voters more closely resembles that from 2014 than it does 2018. (In 2014, John Cornyn was at the top of the ticket and defeated David Alameel 62%-34% and Greg Abbott defeated Wendy Davis 59%-39%.)

Here is how this has tracked each day of early voting.



2022 vs. 2018 Turnout

We can FINALLY compare early voting totals this year to 2018 for the entire state. As I said earlier, 5,459,552 people voted this year. In 2018, 5,994,140 people voted early in the U.S. Senate race. This means we fell short of the 2018 total by 534,588 votes.

However, in 2018, there were 15,793,257 registered voters. 38% of registered voters voted. Currently, there are 17,675,191 registered voters and only 31% voted early. In order to get to a 38% turnout rate, we would have needed 6,716,573 people voting. So adjusted for the growth in the number of registered voters, we are currently 1.3 million votes behind 2018's turnout.


Urban vs. Rural

The Big Five counties (Harris, Dallas, Bexar, Travis, and Tarrant) saw 2,278,492 people vote. They made up 41.7% of all votes cast during early voting. 31% of all registered voters in these counties voted early.

The next 20 largest counties (many of which surround the above-listed counties) saw 1,907,772 people vote. They made up 34.9% of all votes cast. 32.2% of all registered voters in these counties voted early.

The remaining 229 counties saw 1,273,288 people vote. They made up 23.3% of all votes cast. 29.1% of all registered voters in these counties voted early. But, as I have said before, early voting is more popular in urban and suburban areas than it is rural counties. There are fewer early voting places and in a rural county, the drive might be significantly out of the way to reach a polling place. On Election Day, the likelihood is higher that there will be a closer polling place.

Why is it important to look at this breakdown?

In 2020, President Trump received 39.5% of the vote in The Big Five, 51.6% in the next 20 largest counties, but received 74.1% in the remaining 229 counties.

In 2018, Senator Cruz saw a similar breakdown. Cruz received 38.5% of the vote in The Big Five, 51.2% in the next 20 largest counties, and 72.2% in the remaining 229 counties.


Primary Voters

Each party still has over one million voters who voted in their party's primary who have NOT voted. There are 1.5 million voters with previous Republican Primary history and 1.2 million voters with previous Democratic Primary history who have not voted.

59% of voters with Republican Primary history voted early compared to 57% of voters with Democratic Primary history that voted.

In 2018, 21% of voters with Republican Primary history waited to vote on Election Day. If that holds true this year, that would equate to 732,000 votes. 16.7% of voters with Democratic Primary history waited to vote on Election Day. That would equal about 436,000 votes.

It is likely that a larger portion of Republican Primary voters are waiting to vote on Election Day than in years past. The participation rates of 3Rs and 4Rs may point to this being the case. 71.3% of 3Rs have voted and 80.6% of 4Rs have voted. These are group where 90%+ end up voting in midterm elections.


Demographics

These are the updated participation rates by gender, age, and I have added voters with a Hispanic surname to the mix.



The group everyone seems to be focusing on, only 14% of voters aged 18-29 have voted early. In 2018, 34% voted. To reach that rate, an additional 735,721 18-29 year olds will have to vote on Election Day (507,608 voted during early voting).


Projections

Now the question becomes, "How many people are going to vote on Election Day?" And it wasn't 7:20am before Adam Loewy asked me that question (with Evan Smith close behind at 7:40am).

I'm actually not going to make a final projection yet because I need to go through the data a bit more. I'll make a projection in Monday's super duper early voting report.

In the meantime, here is how the early/mail versus Election Day vote has split historically:

2020: 86% of votes were cast by mail or during early voting / 14% on Election Day
2018: 72% mail/early / 28% Election Day
2016: 77% mail/early / 23% Election Day
2014: 55% mail/early / 45% Election Day


The Reports

For the full statewide report, please click here.
For the breakdown by county, please click here.


Last Notes

On Monday afternoon, I will send out a final early voting report. It will include more charts, more data, more everything. Hopefully, that will give you something to look at as we all wait for returns to start rolling in on Tuesday night.

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Thanks for doing this. All of this proves that it just takes a person to give 2 ****s in order to vote. Technology has made voting easier today than ever before. You can vote early. You can vote at 7AM or 7PM, on a Saturday or a Sunday. I could vote early for a 2 week period in almost any precinct in my county.

The BS stories from Kamala about "the mother with 3 kids in her car", "the senior citizen with health issues" is tired and these cases are so negligible to the overall voting turnout.

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They spread that horse manure because "voter rights" and "voter suppression" is the euphemism they have for the fact election criteria exists, namely that you are a citizen, 18 or older, can prove who you are with an ID, only vote once, and are alive.

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I read that a group said it was racist, bigoted, anti-youth, etc to NOT accept college student IDs as a form of identification.

How does showing you are a student at Baylor prove you have residence in Texas?

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They're dummies, same people think gerrymandering impacts statewide elections which are a raw vote.

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It definitely affects the US Senate. New England should be one state and get two senators just like Texas.

problem solved.

I saw a poll yesterday that had Trump at 53% support, with DeSantis about half that. That's the lowest I've seen Trump, and frankly I was surprised that DeSantis wasn't a bit higher, suggesting that support leaking (very slowly...over months) away from Trump is not all going directly to DeSantis. But make no mistake, the 2024 GOP primary is underway. And whatever can be said about Trump, one of his best attributes as a politician is that he's never NOT campaigning. All good ones are like that. Trump is among the best. He took out Pence before Biden was even inaugurated. Tough business, politics.

Trump at 53% is still in a dominating position so long as the field has more than 2 other contenders. Will win almost every primary. All he has to do is keep jabbing to keep DeSantis at bay.

But I suspect that is not the biggest obstacle DeSantis will have = Kari Lake. I think she is better than DeSantis.

Now, she has to prove her chops on the policy side, to demonstrate that she is as good at governance as at campaigning. And that will take at least a full session of the AZ lege. So she will be late to the party. And she may not run. But she will steal some sunshine from DeSantis.

seen just now in Twitter feed:

I’ll tell everyone what it was right now, though it’s not the smartest fight for REPs to have before a midterm.

When Ron DeSantis is chatting with @kevinomccarthy and Team Paul Ryan behind the back of the man who made him the governor of Florida, it was bound to happen.

… https://t.co/to7Qq4Wlv8

— Rich Baris "The People's Pundit" (@Peoples_Pundit) November 6, 2022

He Hate Me said:

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Doc Holliday said:

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This is some bull**** from Trump.

Calling it now, DeSantis is going to run, and he's going to beat Trump badly

This is just weak https://t.co/fsOM2ouvSN

— Will Chamberlain (@willchamberlain) November 6, 2022

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Done with Trump with that one. Ron DeSantis is pro Freedom and pro Liberty. Trump made Birx and Fauci the faces of his pandemic response. We can do better than Donald John Trump.

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He's a petty dumbass POS and always has been.

He gets the nom, which I think is probable and he will lose like the loser he is. Let's not run a loser and re-tread.

after a summer of polling showing a neck & neck race....they only have to be correct at the finish line:

(so how far off are they, and in which direction? likely soft on the red by 2-4 points.....)

2022 Generic Congressional Ballot

⦿ Quinnipiac: GOP +4
⦿ CNN/SSRS: GOP +4
⦿ NPR/Marist: GOP +3
⦿ Suffolk/USA Today: GOP +4
⦿ WSJ: GOP +2
⦿ CBS: GOP +2
⦿ Emerson: GOP +5
⦿ Monmouth: GOP +6
⦿ Harvard/Harris: GOP +6
⦿ NYT/Siena: GOP +4 pic.twitter.com/idNxfxbJMa

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 3, 2022

Politics makes strange bedfellows and fundraising is generally "any port in a storm".....you take every dollar you can get. But optics are bad, and will blunt criticism of Trump's "DeSanctimonius" jab.

DeSantis is cozying up with the America Last Bush Clan...

Money talks. No more of the Bush family! pic.twitter.com/Bp1t1rFghG

— Fianna (@fianna35) November 6, 2022

whiterock said:

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Politics makes strange bedfellows and fundraising is generally "any port in a storm".....you take every dollar you can get. But optics are bad, and will blunt criticism of Trump's "DeSanctimonius" jab.

DeSantis is cozying up with the America Last Bush Clan...

Money talks. No more of the Bush family! pic.twitter.com/Bp1t1rFghG

— Fianna (@fianna35) November 6, 2022

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Please conduct at least a bit of due diligence. This article is from 2018. And regardless, if you're a FL politician, and you're not tying into the Bush fundraising network, you're an idiot.

Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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I saw a poll yesterday that had Trump at 53% support, with DeSantis about half that. That's the lowest I've seen Trump, and frankly I was surprised that DeSantis wasn't a bit higher, suggesting that support leaking (very slowly...over months) away from Trump is not all going directly to DeSantis. But make no mistake, the 2024 GOP primary is underway. And whatever can be said about Trump, one of his best attributes as a politician is that he's never NOT campaigning. All good ones are like that. Trump is among the best. He took out Pence before Biden was even inaugurated. Tough business, politics.

Trump at 53% is still in a dominating position so long as the field has more than 2 other contenders. Will win almost every primary. All he has to do is keep jabbing to keep DeSantis at bay.

But I suspect that is not the biggest obstacle DeSantis will have = Kari Lake. I think she is better than DeSantis.

Now, she has to prove her chops on the policy side, to demonstrate that she is as good at governance as at campaigning. And that will take at least a full session of the AZ lege. So she will be late to the party. And she may not run. But she will steal some sunshine from DeSantis.

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Trump loses the general election if he runs. He's so unpopular outside of his stupid sychophants. Independents, who decide the presidency, hate him

I suspect DeSantis sits it out and waits for 2028. The country will be sick of whatever Democrat wins in 2024, and the presidency will be ripe for the taking.

I believe we have an over inflated sense of trumps popularity based on his polls among Republicans. But that is not what decides the general election.

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Agree with all of this except…..DeSantis runs in 2024.

Otherwise he faces a Dem president incumbent in 2028 .

sombear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Politics makes strange bedfellows and fundraising is generally "any port in a storm".....you take every dollar you can get. But optics are bad, and will blunt criticism of Trump's "DeSanctimonius" jab.

DeSantis is cozying up with the America Last Bush Clan...

Money talks. No more of the Bush family! pic.twitter.com/Bp1t1rFghG

— Fianna (@fianna35) November 6, 2022

---

Please conduct at least a bit of due diligence. This article is from 2018. And regardless, if you're a FL politician, and you're not tying into the Bush fundraising network, you're an idiot.

---

As I said, fundraising is any port in a storm. The story is context, serves to remind that the current allegations from Baris are not without precedence.

The Empire always strikes back. They don't want Trump. They need a strong horse. And Baris laid out their current wish list. (Which gets pretty weak after DeSantis.)

DeSantis is in advantageous position. Palatable to a broad spectrum of the party. Being wooed by both establishment and Trump wings. Trump has exposed it. Let's see how it plays out.

I'm happy with either of them. But as compelling as it might seem to the wizards of smart, casting Trump aside is probably MORE risky than getting behind him. Time May change that. We will see.

whiterock said:

---

sombear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Politics makes strange bedfellows and fundraising is generally "any port in a storm".....you take every dollar you can get. But optics are bad, and will blunt criticism of Trump's "DeSanctimonius" jab.

DeSantis is cozying up with the America Last Bush Clan...

Money talks. No more of the Bush family! pic.twitter.com/Bp1t1rFghG

— Fianna (@fianna35) November 6, 2022

---

Please conduct at least a bit of due diligence. This article is from 2018. And regardless, if you're a FL politician, and you're not tying into the Bush fundraising network, you're an idiot.

---

As I said, fundraising is any port in a storm. The story is context, serves to remind that the current allegations from Baris are not without precedence.

The Empire always strikes back. They don't want Trump. They need a strong horse. And Baris laid out their current wish list. (Which gets pretty weak after DeSantis.)

DeSantis is in advantageous position. Palatable to a broad spectrum of the party. Being wooed by both establishment and Trump wings. Trump has exposed it. Let's see how it plays out.

I'm happy with either of them. But as compelling as it might seem to the wizards of smart, casting Trump aside is probably MORE risky than getting behind him. Time May change that. We will see.

---

I like most of your posts. But twitter is a cesspool, and that tweet provides zero context. It's 4 years old, and RD was raising $ and running for a governor in a race he was widely expected to lose. Have you seen the list of Trump's contributors? There are folks a lot worse and even a lot more liberal than the Bush family. Bottom line, there are two Republicans taking shots at other Republicans days before the election - Liz Chaney and Trump. I'm a 2-time Trump voter, but he's a selfish, narcissistic idiot who needs to move on.

whiterock said:

---

I saw a poll yesterday that had Trump at 53% support, with DeSantis about half that. That's the lowest I've seen Trump, and frankly I was surprised that DeSantis wasn't a bit higher, suggesting that support leaking (very slowly...over months) away from Trump is not all going directly to DeSantis. But make no mistake, the 2024 GOP primary is underway. And whatever can be said about Trump, one of his best attributes as a politician is that he's never NOT campaigning. All good ones are like that. Trump is among the best. He took out Pence before Biden was even inaugurated. Tough business, politics.

Trump at 53% is still in a dominating position so long as the field has more than 2 other contenders. Will win almost every primary. All he has to do is keep jabbing to keep DeSantis at bay.

But I suspect that is not the biggest obstacle DeSantis will have = Kari Lake. I think she is better than DeSantis.

Now, she has to prove her chops on the policy side, to demonstrate that she is as good at governance as at campaigning. And that will take at least a full session of the AZ lege. So she will be late to the party. And she may not run. But she will steal some sunshine from DeSantis.

---

I prefer Lake over Desantis

Desantis cant win without MAGA just like Trump cant win without the Establishment GOP/Indies.

Trump could win today but if the GOP cleans up economy/crime etc by 24, he has no shot. If they dont, he still may not have a shot as the GOP will be seen as weak.

If Desantis runs in 24 and cant get out of primary, he may be done.

He may need to wait until 28 but that will put Lake in the mix who appears to be a solid talker, lets see if she is a solid gov..

Doc Holliday said:

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whiterock said:

---

I saw a poll yesterday that had Trump at 53% support, with DeSantis about half that. That's the lowest I've seen Trump, and frankly I was surprised that DeSantis wasn't a bit higher, suggesting that support leaking (very slowly...over months) away from Trump is not all going directly to DeSantis. But make no mistake, the 2024 GOP primary is underway. And whatever can be said about Trump, one of his best attributes as a politician is that he's never NOT campaigning. All good ones are like that. Trump is among the best. He took out Pence before Biden was even inaugurated. Tough business, politics.

Trump at 53% is still in a dominating position so long as the field has more than 2 other contenders. Will win almost every primary. All he has to do is keep jabbing to keep DeSantis at bay.

But I suspect that is not the biggest obstacle DeSantis will have = Kari Lake. I think she is better than DeSantis.

Now, she has to prove her chops on the policy side, to demonstrate that she is as good at governance as at campaigning. And that will take at least a full session of the AZ lege. So she will be late to the party. And she may not run. But she will steal some sunshine from DeSantis.

---

I prefer Lake over Desantis

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Why ?

sombear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

sombear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Politics makes strange bedfellows and fundraising is generally "any port in a storm".....you take every dollar you can get. But optics are bad, and will blunt criticism of Trump's "DeSanctimonius" jab.

DeSantis is cozying up with the America Last Bush Clan...

Money talks. No more of the Bush family! pic.twitter.com/Bp1t1rFghG

— Fianna (@fianna35) November 6, 2022

---

Please conduct at least a bit of due diligence. This article is from 2018. And regardless, if you're a FL politician, and you're not tying into the Bush fundraising network, you're an idiot.

---

As I said, fundraising is any port in a storm. The story is context, serves to remind that the current allegations from Baris are not without precedence.

The Empire always strikes back. They don't want Trump. They need a strong horse. And Baris laid out their current wish list. (Which gets pretty weak after DeSantis.)

DeSantis is in advantageous position. Palatable to a broad spectrum of the party. Being wooed by both establishment and Trump wings. Trump has exposed it. Let's see how it plays out.

I'm happy with either of them. But as compelling as it might seem to the wizards of smart, casting Trump aside is probably MORE risky than getting behind him. Time May change that. We will see.

---

I like most of your posts. But twitter is a cesspool, and that tweet provides zero context. It's 4 years old, and RD was raising $ and running for a governor in a race he was widely expected to lose. Have you seen the list of Trump's contributors? There are folks a lot worse and even a lot more liberal than the Bush family. Bottom line, there are two Republicans taking shots at other Republicans days before the election - Liz Chaney and Trump. I'm a 2-time Trump voter, but he's a selfish, narcissistic idiot who needs to move on.

---

The posts above were in the same order I saw them on my Twitter feed, which is instructive. Issue comes up, people start reacting/posting, in reaction to Trump's comments. The net effect is to remind that DeSantis is derivative of MAGA, and suggest that he's not quite yet trustworthy as it's heir.

I think DeSantis brushes off the Trump comment and focuses on his campaign. Trump made his point. It's a bit early for Desantis to jump into the mud fight with Trump, even we're he inclined to do so. And I still don't think he will. And in a week, Trump has worst case out a peg down to secure from further slippage and possibly picked up a few points of support

The question going forward is: where does DeSantis have the most power…..challenging Trump, or allying with Trump. Right now, the latter looks a lot less risky. I suspect he will play real hard at being FL Gov for a while and survey landscape.

And he will now have to keep an eye on Lake, who will be stealing some of his limelight.

whiterock said:

---

seen just now in Twitter feed:

I’ll tell everyone what it was right now, though it’s not the smartest fight for REPs to have before a midterm.

When Ron DeSantis is chatting with @kevinomccarthy and Team Paul Ryan behind the back of the man who made him the governor of Florida, it was bound to happen.

… https://t.co/to7Qq4Wlv8

— Rich Baris "The People's Pundit" (@Peoples_Pundit) November 6, 2022

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Trump forfeited that with his behavior after the 2020 election. His behavior, rally and ultimately Jan 6th cost him that right. The GOP would have rolled if not for that fiasco with his legal team, certification scheme and rallies after losing. His sore loser antics and childish tantrums cost the GOP.

He is a pariah in politics. He will motivate his base, but he will also motivate every liberal and left-leaning independent to vote against him. DeSantis gains nothing with Trump, those people will vote DeSantis over any Dem. This problem is the sensible moderate independents, DeSantis's performance during COVID, Ian and Flordia's growth will win them, not Trump.

Hello, goodnight everybody!

Fetterman says he celebrates the demise of Roe v. Wade. Well, okay then. pic.twitter.com/fujh1HIwYc

— Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) November 6, 2022

RMF5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

seen just now in Twitter feed:

I’ll tell everyone what it was right now, though it’s not the smartest fight for REPs to have before a midterm.

When Ron DeSantis is chatting with @kevinomccarthy and Team Paul Ryan behind the back of the man who made him the governor of Florida, it was bound to happen.

… https://t.co/to7Qq4Wlv8

— Rich Baris "The People's Pundit" (@Peoples_Pundit) November 6, 2022

---

Trump forfeited that with his behavior after the 2020 election. His behavior, rally and ultimately Jan 6th cost him that right. The GOP would have rolled if not for that fiasco with his legal team, certification scheme and rallies after losing. His sore loser antics and childish tantrums cost the GOP.

He is a pariah in politics. He will motivate his base, but he will also motivate every liberal and left-leaning independent to vote against him. DeSantis gains nothing with Trump, those people will vote DeSantis over any Dem. This problem is the sensible moderate independents, DeSantis's performance during COVID, Ian and Flordia's growth will win them, not Trump.

---

Pariah is the wrong word choice. He has majority support of Republicans and at least 45% of the electorate would vote for him again. Polarizing captures it better. And that's viewing it in isolation. Democrats and alphabet media are going to treat any Republican the way they treat Trump.

Cold, hard reality RIGHT NOW, as of today, Trump has the largest coalition available to us. And it's growing. He's going to be hard to beat in the primary. And it's not clear that anyone else can inherit his coalition. Neither is it immediately apparent that building a different/better coalition Is any more viable than cobbling a few more percentage points to the one he commands.

Platitudes about unelectability are going to bounce off him like ping pong balls……

whiterock said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

seen just now in Twitter feed:

I’ll tell everyone what it was right now, though it’s not the smartest fight for REPs to have before a midterm.

When Ron DeSantis is chatting with @kevinomccarthy and Team Paul Ryan behind the back of the man who made him the governor of Florida, it was bound to happen.

… https://t.co/to7Qq4Wlv8

— Rich Baris "The People's Pundit" (@Peoples_Pundit) November 6, 2022

---

Trump forfeited that with his behavior after the 2020 election. His behavior, rally and ultimately Jan 6th cost him that right. The GOP would have rolled if not for that fiasco with his legal team, certification scheme and rallies after losing. His sore loser antics and childish tantrums cost the GOP.

He is a pariah in politics. He will motivate his base, but he will also motivate every liberal and left-leaning independent to vote against him. DeSantis gains nothing with Trump, those people will vote DeSantis over any Dem. This problem is the sensible moderate independents, DeSantis's performance during COVID, Ian and Flordia's growth will win them, not Trump.

---

Pariah is the wrong word choice. He has majority support of Republicans and at least 45% of the electorate would vote for him again. Polarizing captures it better. And that's viewing it in isolation. Democrats and alphabet media are going to treat any Republican the way they treat Trump.

Cold, hard reality RIGHT NOW, as of today, Trump has the largest coalition available to us. And it's growing. He's going to be hard to beat in the primary. And it's not clear that anyone else can inherit his coalition. Neither is it immediately apparent that building a different/better coalition Is any more viable than cobbling a few more percentage points to the one he commands.

Platitudes about unelectability are going to bounce off him like ping pong balls……

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Trump is only electable because the Democratic field is inept, if they had a remotely appealing candidate he wouldn't win.