Sombear, Appreciate the update..
U.S Senate races
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Last: 1 yr ago by Osodecentx
What were Trafalgar numbers in September for PA?
Back to the midterms pic.twitter.com/5l6WTzIYYJ
— Daily Wire (@realDailyWire) November 1, 2022
Gonna be ballot monkey business in Pennsylvania, Georgia, New York, Nevada, Arizona, and Wisconsin. You can bank on it. Worked perfectly in 2020. I will be shocked if any Republicans win any of the highly contested races in these states. The Dems have it figured out and know that nobody will stop them.Osodecentx said:
GOP is cutting ads in Penn, Az & Wisconsin. That would mean 2 pick ups for Dems. I'm not seeing 3 Republican pick ups in states left in play.
In a highly unusual move, the National Republican Senatorial Committee this week canceled bookings worth about $10 million, including in the critical states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Arizona.
"The fact that they canceled these reservations was a huge problem you can't get them back," said one Senate Republican strategist, who like others spokes on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal matters. "You can't win elections if you don't have money to run ads."
"Never underestimate Joe's ability to **** things up!"
-- Barack Obama
-- Barack Obama
He had Fetterman +2 but down from +5 in August.Osodecentx said:
What were Trafalgar numbers in September for PA?
sombear said:He had Fetterman +2 but down from +5 in August.Osodecentx said:
What were Trafalgar numbers in September for PA?
Thanks
CIVIQS: Blake Masters is TIED with Mark Kelly in Arizona Senate Race
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 2, 2022
(R) Blake Masters 49% (=)
(D) Mark Kelly 49%
Independents
(R) Blake Masters 50% (+5)
(D) Mark Kelly 45%
⦿ 34% of all Registered Voters in Arizona are Independentshttps://t.co/4wvjAhewrB pic.twitter.com/0wmQrdWl3q
𝐍𝐄𝐖 𝐏𝐎𝐋𝐋: Mehmet Oz holds 1 POINT lead over John Fetterman in Pennsylvania Senate Race
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 2, 2022
(R) Mehmet Oz: 48% (+1)
(D) John Fetterman: 47%
⦿ 6-point shift towards Dr. Oz from August when the Fetterman was up by 5 points@SusquehannaPR | 10/28-11/01https://t.co/cy63AzVFv7 pic.twitter.com/zlr0WdECbK
NEW: Susquehanna/@PlayBUSR
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 2, 2022
NV Senate
(R) Adam Laxalt 48% (+5)
(D) Catherine Cortez Masto 43%
NV Governor
(R) Joe Lombardo 45% (+2)
(D) Steve Sisolak 43%
⦿ 500 LV | 10/24-27 | MoE ±4.3%https://t.co/7gj0KiuuRM pic.twitter.com/ovAmxpfZvo
Matches Emerson College recent poll.
Emerson College was the most accurate Nevada pollster in 2020 (Biden +2 poll vs Biden +2.7 result)
For Oso
Trump-backed MAGA Inc. has now spent over $16.4M across 6 states
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 2, 2022
Today's additions:
AZ Sen: $1.0M
GA Sen: $998K
PA Sen: $781K
2022 Senate Totals
1. AZ Senate: $3.9M
2. GA Sen: $3.6M
3. PA Sen: $3.4M
4. OH Sen: $2.4M
5. NV Sen: $2.1M
6. MIGov: $1.0M
Source: @AdImpact_Pol pic.twitter.com/6EqxilJbM2
🚨 NEW HAMPSHIRE SENATE POLING TRENDS By @SaintAnselmPoll
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 1, 2022
September 28:
Maggie Hassan (D-inc): 49% (+6)
Don Bolduc (R): 43%
October 28:
Don Bolduc (R): 48% (+1)
Maggie Hassan (D-inc): 47%
✅ That's a 𝟕-𝐏𝐎𝐈𝐍𝐓 towards Bolduc https://t.co/cobdBRcGIo pic.twitter.com/0LThDXHEJB
A reminder of how the Big 3 did last November
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) November 2, 2022
Virginia 2021 Governor
Actual Result: Youngkin +1.9%
Trafalgar: Youngkin +2.3
Insider Advantage: Youngkin +2
Baris: Youngkin +2.9
Big 3 Average: Youngkin +2.4
N.J 2021 Governor
Actual Result: Murphy +2.8
Trafalgar: Murphy +4.2
They only have to be close at the finish line. Before that, they can spin spin spin….
" The big picture: Just a few weeks ago, Republicans seemed to be on the ropes thanks to a slate of polarizing, MAGA-aligned candidates with seemingly strong Democratic opponents, and a relentless Democratic focus on abortion.
Now, though, all of those fortunes seem to have been reversed."
https://www.axios.com/2022/11/02/midterm-elections-2022-crime-hispanics-abortion?twclid=258cwkrrqe1vgw7xo439kn6u4z&utm_source=twitter-pd&utm_medium=social-pd&utm_campaign=traffic-social-pd-twitter-midterms&utm_content=tide-turning
" The big picture: Just a few weeks ago, Republicans seemed to be on the ropes thanks to a slate of polarizing, MAGA-aligned candidates with seemingly strong Democratic opponents, and a relentless Democratic focus on abortion.
Now, though, all of those fortunes seem to have been reversed."
https://www.axios.com/2022/11/02/midterm-elections-2022-crime-hispanics-abortion?twclid=258cwkrrqe1vgw7xo439kn6u4z&utm_source=twitter-pd&utm_medium=social-pd&utm_campaign=traffic-social-pd-twitter-midterms&utm_content=tide-turning
Emmitt Till was killed 67 years ago by the Ku Klux Klan
This looks like Stephen A Smith giving a political speech.
This looks like Stephen A Smith giving a political speech.
Actress Jenifer Lewis goes on an unhinged rant at a Biden event:
— Washington Free Beacon (@FreeBeacon) November 1, 2022
"I say to Marco [Rubio]..before you lie to us, remember Rosa sat on that bus..remember Mandela sat in that jail...Before you cheat and steal, I dare you to Google Emmett Till. EMMETT TILL! You say it! Emmett Till!" pic.twitter.com/vObZoO7o6R
yeah.. nobody cares what you are yappin about lady.. FL gonna re elect Rubio and Desantis with easeJack Bauer said:
Emmitt Till was killed 67 years ago by the Ku Klux Klan
This is what the Dems have for political fodder.Actress Jenifer Lewis goes on an unhinged rant at a Biden event:
— Washington Free Beacon (@FreeBeacon) November 1, 2022
"I say to Marco [Rubio]..before you lie to us, remember Rosa sat on that bus..remember Mandela sat in that jail...Before you cheat and steal, I dare you to Google Emmett Till. EMMETT TILL! You say it! Emmett Till!" pic.twitter.com/vObZoO7o6R
In the left's mind, we have to be in 2022 for all social issues but we are still in 1955 for all racial issues.
Anyone voting for vegetable Fetterman in Pennsylvania should lose their voting privileges. Jeeeeeeezzzzzz!!!!!
We have quickly become a country of village idiots!
We have quickly become a country of village idiots!
"Never underestimate Joe's ability to **** things up!"
-- Barack Obama
-- Barack Obama
they are brain washed. The are voting for a letter. They are driven by feelings. It is a childish way to choose an elected official yet here we are..RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:
Anyone voting for vegetable Fetterman in Pennsylvania should lose their voting privileges. Jeeeeeeezzzzzz!!!!!
We have quickly become a country of village idiots!
Warnock with a hard cap at 45-46 across multiple polling units.
He will get less than a quarter of the undecided. His only hope is that they do not vote, as those who do will vote overwhelmingly Red.
This is a well-established dynamic.....an incumbent polling at or below 46 has a nearly impossible pathway to victory.
He will get less than a quarter of the undecided. His only hope is that they do not vote, as those who do will vote overwhelmingly Red.
This is a well-established dynamic.....an incumbent polling at or below 46 has a nearly impossible pathway to victory.
𝐍𝐄𝐖 𝐏𝐎𝐋𝐋: Herschel Walker holds 1 POINT lead over Raphael Warnock in Georgia Senate Race among certain to vote
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 2, 2022
Herschel Walker (R) 46% (+1)
Raphael Warnock (D-inc) 45%
⦿ 5-point shift towards Walker from Sept when Warnock was up by 4 pointshttps://t.co/kQBAZarRE8 pic.twitter.com/dgDIN6ahsd
the problem isnt walker beating warnock at this point, its walker hitting 50% to avoid the runoff.whiterock said:
Warnock with a hard cap at 45-46 across multiple polling units.
He will get less than a quarter of the undecided. His only hope is that they do not vote, as those who do will vote overwhelmingly Red.
This is a well-established dynamic.....an incumbent polling at or below 46 has a nearly impossible pathway to victory.𝐍𝐄𝐖 𝐏𝐎𝐋𝐋: Herschel Walker holds 1 POINT lead over Raphael Warnock in Georgia Senate Race among certain to vote
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 2, 2022
Herschel Walker (R) 46% (+1)
Raphael Warnock (D-inc) 45%
⦿ 5-point shift towards Walker from Sept when Warnock was up by 4 pointshttps://t.co/kQBAZarRE8 pic.twitter.com/dgDIN6ahsd
I dont like the idea of giving them a second bite at the apple
That is a concern.
Good news is, I suspect that the outcome of a GA runoff will not matter with respect to control of the senate. If so, Dems will struggle to generate the energy needed to prevail in a runoff.
Good news is, I suspect that the outcome of a GA runoff will not matter with respect to control of the senate. If so, Dems will struggle to generate the energy needed to prevail in a runoff.
FL turnout data.
Florida Election News
— #ThePersistence (@ScottPresler) November 3, 2022
As of today, here’s how many people have voted:
🔴816,354 (Vote By Mail)
🔵945,014 (VBM)
🔴739,905 (In-Person Early Voting)
🔵394,943 (IPEV)
🔴1,556,259 (VBM + IPEV)
🔵1,339,957 (VBM + IPEV)
Republicans lead with 216,302 more votes than the democrats.
Heard that Miami Dade is turning redwhiterock said:
FL turnout data.Florida Election News
— #ThePersistence (@ScottPresler) November 3, 2022
As of today, here’s how many people have voted:
🔴816,354 (Vote By Mail)
🔵945,014 (VBM)
🔴739,905 (In-Person Early Voting)
🔵394,943 (IPEV)
🔴1,556,259 (VBM + IPEV)
🔵1,339,957 (VBM + IPEV)
Republicans lead with 216,302 more votes than the democrats.
Just watched an interview of Cahaly (Trafalgar) and Towery (insider Adv.) where among many items the discussed GA. Towery noted that to win GA, Dems need minimum of 33% turnout of black voters. Right now in the early vote (when majority of Dem's vote….) black turnout is 30%. Ergo why we see Obama campaigning in GA. Dems desperately trying to gin up turnout. But compounding their problems -polling shows Dems are only getting 70-something % of black support. That 33% turnout requirement is predicated in Dems getting +90% of the black vote. So that pushes required turnout numbers into unsustainable territory.
Walker has a reasonable chance of hitting 50%. undecideds are breaking 60-70% for GOP on polls. Some of them will decide they can't vote for either candidate and just not vote. That means those who actually do show up to vote will break even higher for the GOP….70-80%….to vote against the incumbent.
That is a well proven dynamic. An incumbent in a 46-46 race will not easily persuade many of the undecideds to vote for him. They've seen him and they don't like him. They're merely trying to decide if they can justify voting for the alternative. So the incumbent has to make the alternative look even worse, with thermonuclear negative campaign ads. The best that can the incumbent can hope for is that the 8% undecided all stay home (or vote 3rd party) and then work his turnout models better than the challenger….because 70-80% of the undecideds who do show up will vote for the challenger.
That dynamic is accentuated when the macro-environment is hostile to his party. And this cycle is all that & then some.
Walker has a reasonable chance of hitting 50%. undecideds are breaking 60-70% for GOP on polls. Some of them will decide they can't vote for either candidate and just not vote. That means those who actually do show up to vote will break even higher for the GOP….70-80%….to vote against the incumbent.
That is a well proven dynamic. An incumbent in a 46-46 race will not easily persuade many of the undecideds to vote for him. They've seen him and they don't like him. They're merely trying to decide if they can justify voting for the alternative. So the incumbent has to make the alternative look even worse, with thermonuclear negative campaign ads. The best that can the incumbent can hope for is that the 8% undecided all stay home (or vote 3rd party) and then work his turnout models better than the challenger….because 70-80% of the undecideds who do show up will vote for the challenger.
That dynamic is accentuated when the macro-environment is hostile to his party. And this cycle is all that & then some.
Either Trump lost fairly in 2020…..or Dems will retain control of the Senate in 2024 .
Silly to think Dems would magically discover election ethics in two short years .
Penn
New York
Michigan
Will remain solidly in Dem hands .
Silly to think Dems would magically discover election ethics in two short years .
Penn
New York
Michigan
Will remain solidly in Dem hands .
Canada2017 said:
Either Trump lost fairly in 2020…..or Dems will retain control of the Senate in 2024 .
Silly to think Dems would magically discover election ethics in two short years .
Penn
New York
Michigan
Will remain solidly in Dem hands .
Everytime I start to hope you stamp it all out and bring me back to reality.
I am hoping for a 2016 surge so big their ballot harvesting wont be enough...
Democrats Worried Republicans May Take Lead Beyond Margin Of CheatingCanada2017 said:
Either Trump lost fairly in 2020…..or Dems will retain control of the Senate in 2024 .
Silly to think Dems would magically discover election ethics in two short years .
Penn
New York
Michigan
Will remain solidly in Dem hands .
U.S. As Republicans continue to expand their leads in polling across the country, Democrats are worried that the leads may soon grow beyond the normal margin of Democrat cheating.
"Yeah, normally our big-city vote harvesting machines and slimy election procedures are good for a bump of a few percentage points, but Republican poll numbers may have even grown beyond that," said a visibly nervous DNC Chair Jaime Harrison, (they/them). "I don't understand why people care more about feeding their kids than they do about voting in literal mega-MAGA, far-right, Nazi, alt-right, white supremacist, Nazi, fascist-adjacent Nazis. It could be the end of democracy!"
DNC operatives are hoping to close the gap by promising free abortions and gender-affirming care, as well as by sending tons of unsolicited emails to millions of voters begging for more money to save Nancy Pelosi's job.
Democrats warn that if Republicans gain control of Congress, it will be the end of democracy until the next election in 2024.
At publishing time, Republicans had gone up another 7 points nationally.
Babylon Bee
apples to oranges..Canada2017 said:
Either Trump lost fairly in 2020…..or Dems will retain control of the Senate in 2024 .
Silly to think Dems would magically discover election ethics in two short years .
Penn
New York
Michigan
Will remain solidly in Dem hands .
They gonna try. Several pollsters put 2% in specifically to counter possible fraud in those areas.
Does anyone think that Hershel Walker is remotely qualified to be a Senator? Not a question relative to parties. Just curious.
As qualified as his opponent. And "other" isn't a choice.J.R. said:
Does anyone think that Hershel Walker is remotely qualified to be a Senator? Not a question relative to parties. Just curious.
It is Walker [likely unqualified but will vote R] or Warnock [likely unqualified and will vote D].
J.R. said:
Does anyone think that Hershel Walker is remotely qualified to be a Senator? Not a question relative to parties. Just curious.
No he's not .
But the alternative is even worse .
It is guaranteed to end up in a runoff and your scenario is the hope. "It won't matter". If it is the deciding seat for a majority, look out.whiterock said:
That is a concern.
Good news is, I suspect that the outcome of a GA runoff will not matter with respect to control of the senate. If so, Dems will struggle to generate the energy needed to prevail in a runoff.
Terrible candidate. It's literally a likely policy vote.J.R. said:
Does anyone think that Hershel Walker is remotely qualified to be a Senator? Not a question relative to parties. Just curious.
Not at all.J.R. said:
Does anyone think that Hershel Walker is remotely qualified to be a Senator? Not a question relative to parties. Just curious.
Neither is the "preacher".
What makes you think Warnock is qualified? He is just a preacher that talks about how bad white people are rather than talking about God.J.R. said:
Does anyone think that Hershel Walker is remotely qualified to be a Senator? Not a question relative to parties. Just curious.